8-09 © 2009 IDC Copyright 2008 IDC

Michael Fauscette, Group Vice President, SBS

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Where We Stand

2

 Crisis –  Impact  where’s the bottom?

 How / when do we recover?  Fundamental changes

 Consumption models  Structural change  Innovation

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SW Applications Forecast Changes

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2008 (Early) 2008 (Dec) 2009 (Jan) 2009 (May)

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An Economic Unknown

4

$1-3 Trillion For  Bank Bailouts  Tax Cuts  Smart Grid  SMB Incentives  Health Care  Infrastructure  Broadband  Auto Manufacturers  Green Building

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Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis

Consumption Models E

mer

ging

Im

pera

tives

Architecture

Sourcing a Process

Targets

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Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis

Consumption Models

  Software as a Service / Cloud Applications

  Open Source Software

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SaaS forecast comparison

$M

• IDC has increased its SaaS growth projection for 2009 from 36% growth to 42% growth over 2008.

• The percentage of U.S. firms which plan to spend at least 25% of their IT budgets on SaaS applications will increase from 23% in 2008 to nearly 45% in 2010.

Source: Economic Crisis Response: Worldwide Software as a Service Forecast Update (IDC #215504, January 2009)

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OSS Forecast

Source: Worldwide Open Source Software Forecast 2009 – 2013, July 2009

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Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis

Em

ergi

ng

Impe

rativ

es

  Social Software Solutions  The Next Gen Web

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The Social Enterprise

It’s not just “tools”, it’s changing processes

and culture

Democratization and Empowerment:

Spreading control across a broad audience, adding value, building relationships, conversations and

increasing transparency

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The Social Enterprise

Internal

External

Sales – Marketing – Product – Support - Service

Blogs – Communities – Social Networks - Ideasourcing – Microblogs – Syndication – Virtual Conference - Video

Wiki’s – Social Analytics – Collaboration – Mashups – Platforms -

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Social Software Solutions

Consumer Apps CRM Content

Apps

Online Community Platforms

Enablers Wiki Blogs +traditional Collab

Collab

Ideasourcing Social Customer Service Social SFA (predictive selling) Brand Monitoring / building

Wiki Blogs Ideasourcing

Social Analytics

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Social Software Solutions Vendors

Consumer Apps CRM Content

Apps

Online Community Platforms

Facebook LinkedIn MySpace Twitter Google Apps

SocialText Lotus Connections Sharepoint Jive Google Apps

Collab

Concursive UserVoice Oracle Sales Prospector Bright Idea Omniture

Google Apps Cisco Eos Reality Digital MyLife OneRiot Wink

Social Analytics

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The Next Gen Web

Static Web

Social Web

Transaction Web

Semantic Web

Web 1.0 Web 1.5 Web 2.0 Web 3.0

?

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The Next Gen Web

?  Real-time  Mobile  Ubiquitous access  Built for Web communication  Decentralized  Modular / reusable  Increasing interconnectedness

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With Video….

 Trust  Connection  Visual instincts

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Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis

Architecture

  Service Oriented Architecture (SOA)

  Event Based Architecture   Unified Access to Content and Data

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Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis

Sourcing a Process

  Build: Mashup, Process Modeling, Business Rules   Buy: “Good Enough” v. “Best of Breed”

  Outsource

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Software Megatrends Structural Changes Accelerated by the Financial Crisis

Targets

  SMB’s   Channels   Partner to Partner

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Consolidation

  Enter the Mega-ecosystem

  Partners Coalesce Around Epicenters

  Partner Consolidation

  Hybrid Business Models

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The New Landscape of Tech

Mega Vendor

Acquisition Targets

Survivors

Start ups

HP, IBM, Microsoft, Oracle (Post Sun), Cisco, Intel, Google, Apple

1. Large >$1B, 2. vertical ISV’s, 3. Discontinuous innovators

Niche Markets, Redundant Portfolio, Too Unique

Discontinuous Innovators: future acquisition targets

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Michael Fauscette mfauscette@idc.com Twitter: @mfauscette Blog: www.mfauscette.com

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