the future is here jim gosey university of nebraska “show me the future” national angus...
TRANSCRIPT
The Future is Here
Jim Gosey University of Nebraska
“Show Me The Future” National Angus Conference & Tour , Sept.28, 2005 Kansas City, Mo.
The Perfect Presentation 1. Catchy title
2. A Bold Statement
3. Cattle Pictures
4. Data Slide
5. A Quotation
6. Summary
7. Questions
The Future is Here
CROSSBRED COWS HAVE……
25% GREATER LIFETIME PRODUCTION
SLIDE OF
BLACK BULL 281
GOES HERE
Calves sired by Univ. of Neb. Composite bulls
Date # Wt. Fat REA YG %Y1:2 %Ch
6/05 37 836 .54 13.2 3.19 49 97
5/05 45 823 .57 13.8 3.02 49 84
5/05 89 795 .51 13.5 2.83 62 85
3/05 22 802 .41 14.6 2.34 82 91
3/05 24 729 .49 13.0 2.74 75 96
12/4 53 809 .40 14.5 2.35 89 81
AV. 270 802 .49 13.8 2.77 66 87
“the most reliable way to anticipate the future is
by understanding the present”
John Naisbitt
Megatrends, 1982
Summary
• Breeds are Different
• Crossbreeding Works
ARE THERE ANY QUESTIONS ?
The Future is Here ?
What will be the role of the Angus breed in commercial herds ?
Angus market share result of:
• Excellent Angus Database
• CAB success
• Wide use of calving ease Angus bulls on heifers
• Mismanaged Crossbreeding Systems
Three generations of Angus bulls used on F1 Hereford-
Angus cows results in:
3/4 Angus
7/8 Angus
15/16 Angus
and a loss of 87% of Hybrid Vigor !
How Much Crossbred Advantage Can I Give Up ???
% Total Per Calf
Lost W.Wt/Cow $$$ Deficit
Zero 525 [email protected] $ 698 -------
Half 472 [email protected] $ 647 - $ 51
3/4 446 [email protected] $ 620 - $ 78
ALL 420 [email protected] $ 596 - $102
Generally….Purebred commercial herds can only
outproduce crossbred herds in low-stress
environments
“ It is not the strongest of the species that survive,
nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to
change.”
Charles Darwin, (1809-1882)
Crossing Breeds ?
Crossbreeding
Many Traditional Crossbreeding Systems Fail
“Management Ease” Test
• Too many breeding pastures
• Difficult to source replacements
• Swings in breed composition
Swings in breed composition have led to perception of inconsistency in crossbred herds.
Composite blends of breeds can solve the problem.
*Variation: Purebreds/ Crossbreds
Trait Purebred Composite
Wean Wt. .10 .11
ADG .11 .11
Scrotal Cir. .07 .07
Backfat .48 .44
Marbling .27 .29
* coefficient of variation
Gregory, USMARC
Role of the Angus breed ?
• One-half to 3/4 of the future commercial cow.
• Contribute genetics for “high taste” beef. (tenderness, flavor, juiciness).
What is needed ?
1. Genetic estimates of fertility
(repro data on all females)
2. Moderate mature size & milk
3. Continued effort on cow
maintenance estimates
4. Tenderness data
Role of the Angus breeder ?
More than selling bulls…….
Must enhance commercial customer profitability.
Profit Drivers / Obstacles
1. Fertility / inventory / payweight
2. Land investment per cow
3. Environmental stewardship
4. Cows per person
5. Choice of calving season
6. Beyond commodity marketing
7. Beef in a healthy lifestyle
“Creativity is figuring out how to use what you already know in order to go beyond what you currently think.”
Jerome Bruner,1983
In Search of Mind,
Harper, New York
“Creativity is figuring out how to use what you already know in order to go beyond what you currently think.”
Jerome Bruner,1983
In Search of Mind,
Harper, New York
What do we know ?
• We know how to use EPD’s.
• We know how to build selection indices.
• We know breeds are similar in growth but differ in marbling and retail product.
What do we know ?
• We know British breeds are more efficient to fatness endpoints.
• We know Continental breeds are more efficient to retail product wt. endpoints.
• We know how to increase marbling by early weaning & feeding high energy.
What do we know ?
• We know how to use management intensive grazing.
• We know how to use ethanol by-product feeds.
• We know how to move the calving season to eliminate hay feeding.
Angus breeders can use theircreativity to…….
• Be more proactive in helping their commercial customers be successful.
• Learn from their customers.
“ the only truly sustainable competitive advantage is the ability to learn and adapt faster than your competition”
Jack Welch, CEO
General Electric
(1981-2000)
What happens if we do a poor job of listening to our
customers ?
or, assume we know more than our customers?
Market Share of Apples
Variety 1996 2004
Red Delicious 59 37
Golden Delicious 19 14
Granny Smith 6 13
Gala 4 14
Fuji 7 13
Other 5 9
Red Delicious Apples are…..
• Bright red
• Have desirable shape
• Very crisp
• Excellent in cold storage
• Rich in antioxidants
Only one problem with Red Delicious apples….
They don’t taste good !
What happens if we do a poor job of listening to our
customers ?
or, assume we know more than our customers?
For Example…..
• Do we really need 1700 lb cows ?
• Do we really need to increase genetic milk if customers calve in June ?
• Do we really need to develop bulls on high energy diets ?
For Example…..
• Do we really need to sell commercial bulls for $4,000 ?
• Do we really need to increase marbling, given 25% of Americans are obese ?
“Hell, there are no rules, we are trying to accomplish
something here.”
Thomas A. Edison
(1847-1931)
