The forest frontier as the link between conflict risk, coca cultivation and high biodiversity areas

Liliana M. Dávalos

ICCB24 July 2017

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Coca = deforestation Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech.

Evaluating effects of coca

• Direct vs. indirect• Plots small, direct

effect small• Indirect effects larger

• There are other countries• Should hold across

producers• Background

deforestation ≠ 0• Must control for other

factors• E.g., roads, population

Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech.

Rates higher in areas without coca, but Bolivia

Data from Hansen et al. 2013 Science

Direct loss rate from coca is low

UNODC 2016 World Drug Report

In Bolivia rates did rise with coca boom

Killeen et al. 2007 Ambio

If not coca then what?Sánchez Cuervo & Aide 2013 Ecosystems Armenteras et al. 2013 Reg. Environ. Change Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech.

Key points, illicit crops

• Direct effects• Loss rate high when

compared to other agriculture ✘

• Indirect effects:• Loss rate higher in

producer regions ✘• Times with more coca

correspond to more deforestation in Bolivia ✔

• Coca cultivation will covary with rates ✘

Novoa & Finer 2015

Similarities

• Brücher 1977 Geogr. Z.

Coca cultivation

HighLow

2014Percent forest Probability of coca

b c

A spatial relationship Dávalos et al. 2016 Bioscience

Coca cultivation

HighLow

2014Percent forest

HighLow

Probability of coca

b c

The Amazonian frontier Denevan 1966 Geogr. Rev.

The frontier

• Border between settled lands and natural habitats (nominally belongs to the state)• Forest->property• Final state = no forest• Already happened in other

regions• Most of Andes• western Caquetá• western Putumayo

• Currently unfolding in parts of Amazonia, most of Chocó

Etter et al. 2006 J. Environ. Manage.

Frac

tion

fore

st

200 km

40 km

Not all effects depend on rates

• If endemic species• Small area = large

effect• Biodiversity in Andes,

Chocó• High• Irreplaceable

• Detailed and focused analyses needed

Unpublished

Amphibians Birds MammalsTh

reat

ened

spe

cies

All

spec

ies

2,000km0

High

HighLow

Low

Coca is a major threat Unpublished

The frontier A general model

Frac

tion

fore

stcoca beachhead

Time ->

mixed agriculture

properties

pastures!

Álvarez 2001 Environmentalist

Álvarez 2001 Environmentalist

Yes! Because the frontier goes on

Thanks!