the food deficits problem in the arab maghreb union: present state and future perspectives

British Society for Middle Eastern Studies

The Food Deficits Problem in the Arab Maghreb Union: Present State and Future PerspectivesAuthor(s): Ahmed AghroutSource: British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 19, No. 1 (1992), pp. 54-67Published by: Taylor & Francis, Ltd.Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/195433 .

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THE FOOD DEFICITS PROBLEM IN THE ARAB MAGHREB UNION: PRESENT STATE AND FUTURE PERSPECTIVES

Ahmed Aghrout

Abstract

This paper investigates the scope of the problem of food deficits within the recently-established Arab Maghreb Union (U.M.A.). Various agricultural options pursued by the member states have been unequal to the aim of achieving food self-sufficiency. Thus, the inability of agriculture to meet the basic needs of a growing population has led to increasing reliance on external sources of supply. Natural constraints, inadequate inputs and neglect of rural areas account, to a wider extent, for the poor performance of their agriculture. Limited financial resources and widespread social discontent have left no option to the U.M.A. partners than that of exploring regional potentialities in the short and long terms alike.

Introduction

The growing problem of food deficits has become a crucial issue of central concern to many developing countries. The distressing sign of the collapse of their agriculture is reflected in rising food imports. Food production in many of these areas has over the last two decades been growing more slowly than demand, mainly because of population increase and a rise in income. By way of illustration, their imports of cereals increased from 42 to 100 million tons during the 1970s, and if current trends continue - as seems likely - they will be importing around 200 million tons by the end of the present century.l Owing to the precarious financial state of most of these countries, largely brought about by the deterioration of their export earnings in recent years, it is unlikely that they will be in a better position to finance massive imports of foodstuffs.

The 1973-74 food crisis, which brought into the open the gap between world supply and demand, led to the convening of the first World Food Conference. No real progress has been achieved since then with respect to the agreed goals, which involved particularly the eradication of world hunger and malnutrition.2 The situation instead continues to worsen, especially within the African continent. According to the United Nations World Food Programme's estimates, the needs in food aid for Sub-Saharan Africa in 1991 will be larger than those of 1984-86 with severe droughts. At least 3.9 million tons of urgent food aid are needed for a population of 27 million people living mostly in Ethiopia, Sudan and Mozambique.3

In the Maghreb region, the food deficit problem is also deepening. Once considered as the 'granary of Rome', it has become a major importer relying

1. 'Dossier: Food aid' in The Courier (Brussels), 118, November-December 1989, p.48. 2. Keesing's Contemporary Archives (London), 25 November-1 December 1974, pp.26829-34. 3. Paul Mitchell, 'Une Crise alimentaire en Afrique' in Afrique Relance (New York), 4, 3-4, October-December 1990, p.4.

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heavily on external sources of supply. Until the beginning of the 1970s, Maghreb states as a group produced enough food to meet their the needs of their population. Since that time, however, the situation has been worsening and large quantities of food are being imported. Without a strong commitment and concrete actions in this area, this problem will compel the governments concerned to increase imports to meet the basic needs of a growing population of almost 100 million people by the year 2000. This fact represents a major challenge to the newly-established springboard of regional co-operation, the 'Union du Maghreb Arabe' (U.M.A.).

Against this background, the present paper attempts to examine the extent of the current food crisis across all five U.M.A. states. The salient features of this crisis, as well as its causes and repercussions, are reviewed. Possible options for the response to this challenge in the immediate and longer-term future are then suggested within the framework of regional co-operation.

Maghreb Agricultural Policies

Before discussing the food crisis prevailing in the region, it is worth giving a short background to the agricultural policies pursued so far by the Maghreb countries. Given their importance as a conditioning factor, among others, in explaining such a crisis, the following comments will focus particularly on the core states, i.e., Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia where various attempts at reforming the agricultural sector have been undertaken.

With independence, these countries inherited from French colonization a dualism in their agriculture. On the one hand, a modern sector included the most fertile land and was closely linked to the French market through the export of a handful of cash crops. On the other hand, a vast extremely poor sector, incapable of feeding the rapidly growing population, was characterized by low levels of productivity, underemployment and extreme inequalities in landownership.4

Such, in outline, is the background against which the above-mentioned states reacted separately. In Algeria, following the departure of the French settlers in 1962-63, most of the vacated estates were taken over by workers under a self-management (autogestion) system, thereby bringing 2.7 million hectares (ha) into public ownership. Despite benefiting most from state support, it faced many problems stemming essentially from excessive government bureaucracy as well as the lack of necessary technical and managerial skills. From 1969 to 1975, the state restored financial autonomy to all autogestion farms with the aim of boosting production and lessening their increasing financial deficits.

In 1971, an agrarian reform was launched aimed at reducing Algeria's agrarian inequalities engendered during colonial rule and providing for self- sufficiency in basic foodstuffs.5 The reform provided for the redistribution of

4. Richard I. Lawless, 'Progress and Problems in the Development of Maghreb Agriculture' in The Maghreb Review, London, 1, 3, 1976, p.7. 5. Will D. Swearingen, 'Algeria's Food Security Crisis' in Middle East Report, 166, September- October 1990, p.22.

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land to poor and landless peasants from state lands and expropriated large private holdings of which 16,500 holdings had above 50 ha (25 per cent of the land in the private sector).6 Between 1971 and 1979, 1,300,000 ha (13 per cent of the agricultural land) had been redistributed to nearly 100,000 beneficiaries. The latter had to join production co-operatives set up for this purpose.

By the beginning of the 1980s, and because of the declining productivity of agriculture, an operation was launched to restructure the public sector. This led to the merger of self-management estates and agrarian reform units to create 3,415 domaines agricoles socialistes (D.A.S.) plus 103,168 individual holdings.7 This reform was followed immediately by another restructuring in 1987-88, which may be considered as the latest and by far the most liberal experiment carried out on the land.8 All D.A.S. estates were divided either into small units called exploitations agricoles collectives (E.A.C.) or exploitations agricoles individuelles (E.A.I.) as for individual holdings. Each E.A.C. must have a minimum of three members, who freely choose their new colleagues. After an initial five-year period, individual or collective members can sell or transfer their usufruct rights.

This latest reform was viewed as a step by which the state intended to rehabilitate or revitalize the agricultural sector and to remove the obstacles standing in its way to improved conditions of productivity. As this reform has not yet produced an acceptable result, the country continues to be exposed to high levels of food imports to satisfy local needs.

The characteristic feature of agriculture in Morocco is that it is still marked by feudal structures and feudalism. After the independence of 1956, about half of foreign-owned land (500,000 hectares) was sold privately by settlers to Moroccans, especially large landowners, bureaucrats and members of the ruling family.9 It was not until 1973, following the attempt on the life of King Hassan, that all remaining foreign-owned land was nationalized. These lands were to be redistributed, especially to landless peasant farmers. However, this operation of redistribution benefited mainly agrarian capitalism. The most fertile land was allocated to big landowners and the state enterprises: Societe de developpement agricole and Societe de gestion des terres agricoles. By 1977, about 23 per cent of the peasants remained without land and this percentage increased to 76 per cent in certain regions by the mid-1980s.10 Moreover, it is the modern sector which benefits more from state investment, whereas the traditional sector remains more or less ignored. The 'policy of the dams' launched during the national development plan in 1968-72 to increase irrigated areas and hence production was directed mainly to the medium and big

6. Keith Sutton, 'Agrarian Reform in Algeria-Progress in the Face of Disappointment, Dilution and Diversion' in Jones, Steve, Joshi, P.C. and Murnis, Miguel (eds.), Rural Poverty and Agrarian Refiorm (New Delhi, 1982), p.360. 7. Keith Sutton and Ahmed Aghrout, 'Agricultural Policy in Algeria in the 1980s: Progress towards Liberalization', accepted for publication in Canadian Journal of African Studies (Ontario, Canada). 8. Economist Intelligence Unit (London), Country Profile. Algeria 1990-1, p. 16. 9. Lawless, op. cit., p. 10. 10. Paul Pascon and Mohamed Ennadji, Les pavsans sans terres au Maroc (Casablanca, 1986), p.34.

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landowners whose lands are oriented to the cultivation of cash crops. The focus of the modern sector on cash crops and the neglect of the traditional sector led the country to a growing dependence on world markets to meet its basic needs in foodstuffs.

In Tunisia, no important reforms were undertaken at independence in 1956. A substantial part of the French and Italian settlers remained in the country. However, their presence was harmful to the Tunisian economy because of the transfer of profits and the development of an agrarian capitalism carried out at the expense of small-scale farmers. from 1961 to 1969, a new economic policy was set into motion and an agrarian reform was launched. The foreign-owned lands were nationalized and instead state cooperatives were established, ranging from 500 to 1,000 ha. Farmers in these units consisted primarily of landless peasants formerly working for foreign owners. It was through these cooperatives that Tunisia hoped to modernize its agriculture and increase production.'1 Nevertheless, this experiment failed because of the increasing financial difficulties and the strong opposition on the part of big landowners and their allies in the Neo-Destour party.

Once the cooperative system had been dismantled, the nationalized lands were either converted into large units and sold, or let to big landowners. In this context of economic liberalism, it was the small peasants who were seriously affected since they lacked sufficient lands and enough capital to carry on intensive cultivation. Therefore, they sold their properties to big landowners who specialized in the cultivation of cash crops, while Tunisia continued to depend more and more on external sources to supply its needs in basic foods.12

Notwithstanding the attempts at reforming the agricultural sector, one can argue that the approaches adopted by the Maghreb states were quite poorly adapted to the rural areas. Instead of integrating the whole sector as a potential factor in the process of economic development, they indeed contributed to the disequilibrium already existing as a result of the colonial system. Thus, most of the measures put forward to transform the Maghreb's countryside have been either an extension of the colonial pattern as in Morocco and Tunisia or an idealistic project within a grandiose self-sustained economic policy as in Algeria. Overall, the failure of Maghreb agriculture can be attributed largely to the attitude of neglect vis-ai-vis the small peasants, who continue to produce primarily for basic needs. A direct effect of such a situation has been the soaring of food imports, which are placing a heavy strain on the balance of payments of the countries concerned.

The Scope of the Problem

The food problem that emerged by the mid-1970s has reached dramatic proportions over the last decade. Its extent can be measured by examining the evolution of two main indicators: on the one hand, food production, and on the other, food imports.

11. Lawless, op. cit., p.9. 12. Financial Times (London), 27 July 1990.

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The rate of growth in agricultural output has been sluggish, and has been fluctuating in the last few years. Production expanded at a relatively low rate of less than 2 per cent, particularly for food production, compared to a rate of population growth of more than 3 per cent during 1980-83.13 As can be seen from Table 1, the production of cereals shows a very small increase in volume. The cultivation of cereals is widely dependent on rainfall, except in some irrigated areas situated mostly in Morocco. It is therefore not surprising that Morocco remains the major producer in the region. Notwithstanding the somewhat more favourable situation in this country, all the states continue to rely on the imports of substantial qualities of cereals. Nearly two thirds of Algeria's cereal consumption must be met by imports and its ratio of self- sufficiency has fallen from 82 per cent in 1965 to about 46 per cent at the late 1980s.'4

As food production has been falling behind rising needs and in the face of mounting shortages, the Maghreb states have resorted to increased food imports consisting primarily of cereals and dairy products. 5 As far as cereals are concerned, their volume has been increased steadily from 3,141 million metric tons in 1974 to 11,543 in 1988, a nearly fourfold increase over more than a decade. As can be seen from Table 2, Algeria remains a larger importer of these products than the other Maghreb countries. This is also true when one considers the ratio of imported food to total imports. Table 3 shows a rising proportion which has been particularly accentuated over the period 1985-88 in the case of Algeria.

These imports are heavily affecting the balance of payments of the countries concerned.'6 A substantial part of their financial resources continues to be channelled to the provision of foodstuffs. In absolute terms, Algeria and to a lesser degree Libya are the most affected, as may be seen from Table 4. Moreover, Algeria's food bill has been much bigger than that of the remaining Maghreb countries.

Causes and Socio-economic Implications

The poor performance of agriculture, and its corollary the decline in food production with respect to local requirements, is the outcome of a series of factors. It is obvious that natural conditions continue to be a major obstacle in the development of this sector. First is the small arable land area. Of a total area of more than 577 million ha, only 21 million ha are arable land, located essentially in the coastlands and the contiguous plains.-7 The rest of the Maghreb is composed of steppelands and infertile desert. Because there is no effective protection of this limited land area, erosion, desertification,

13. World Bank, World Development Report (Washington, D.C., 1990). 14. El-Moudjahid (Algiers), 27 November 1990. 15. Georges Mutin, 'Agriculture et d6pendance alimentaire en Alg6rie' in Maghreb-Machrek (Paris), 90, October-December 1980, pp.40-64. See also H61ene Delorme, 'D6ficit alimentaire et developpement' in Maghreb-Machrek, 91, January-March 1981, pp.5-23. 16. Fouad Chehat, 'La d6pendance alimentaire: une fatalite?' in Les Cahiers de CREAD (Algiers), 7-8, July-December 1986, pp. 103-15. 17. Food and Agriculture Organization (F.A.O.), Production Yearbook (Roma, 1989).

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industrialization and excessive urbanization are adversely affecting the areas suitable for agriculture. The plain of Mitidja in Algeria is an example of the encroachment of urban and industrial land use. If this trend is not halted, there will be less than 0.2 ha of arable land per head by the year 2000.18 There are also changing climatic conditions: drought alternating with severe floods, which in turn cause substantial year-to-year variations in agricultural output. Frequent infestation by insect pests continues to cause considerable damage to harvests in the region: the worst recently has been the 1988 plague of locusts which was overcome with assistance from Western states.

Another reason behind this low agricultural productivity lies in the relatively low level of capital investment in such items as tractors and fertilizers, which are considered the most effective means of generating high levels of output. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization's 1988 estimates, tractors in use in the whole Maghreb area totalled 181,830 averaging one tractor for 110 ha. This is ten times the area per tractor in France. Fertilizer consumption has remained low: during 1987-88, for instance, consumption of all Maghreb countries was 135 kg/ha, compared to 3,555 kg/ha in the United Kingdom, 2,990 kg/ha in France and 1,163 kg/ha in the OECD members. Irrigation is equally used on a limited scale, Morocco being the only country in the region to develop significant large-scale irrigation schemes, covering 1,260,000 ha compared to 365,000 ha in Algeria, 280,000 ha in Tunisia, 240,000 ha in Libya and 12,000 ha in Mauritania.19 With respect to labour, the tendency is towards the decline of the economically active population in the agricultural sector, which over the period 1980-89 decreased by 10 per cent.

As a result of these factors, low productivity prevails in terms of cereal yields achieved per ha. These fluctuate between 0.4 and 1.0 ton/ha compared to the high yields obtained in the European countries (5.3 tons/ha in the United Kingdom).

Growing population, urbanization and improvement in living standards have all led to a more consistent and balanced food diet of the populations, notwithstanding the fact that cereals remain overwhelmingly the staple diet across the whole Maghreb area. The average per caput consumption of calories a day rose from 1867 calories in 1961-63 to 2885 calories in 1986-88.20

Of importance too in the decline of agriculture has been the attempt by the state, through cooperative organizations, to substitute itself for individual farmers in the process of production. The result has been to neglect the large numbers of smallholder farmers who previously accounted for the bulk of food production in the region but who then lost the motivation to continue doing to.21

18. Jean Jacques Perennes, 'L'agriculture maghrebine en 6tat d'urgence' in Le Monde Diplormatique (Paris), September 1989, p. 12. 19. F.A.O., op. cit. 20. Ibid. 21. Idriss Jazairy, 'The Food Deficit in the Islamic World', 24th Seminar on Islamic Thought, Algiers, I December 1990.

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Whereas needs have grown very rapidly, food production has lagged behind, thus creating a gap covered by massive imports. Indeed, this situation is engendering political as well as socio-economic repercussions.

Obviously, excessive dependence on foreign sources for essential food is a harsh experience that has many implications. It is argued that food can be used as a political instrument to force compliance on critical issues and deprive countries of their independence of action. This can generate social unrest which may undermine the stability of the political regime. On the economic side, serious damage can be inflicted on development priorities and investment programmes.

Over the last decade, the Maghreb states have experienced difficulties connected to the problem of food. The deterioration of their export earnings, of which an important portion is used for the purchase of basic foods, has led them to further borrowing, thus aggravating their existing external debt. As demonstrated earlier, food imports have been not only increasing but absorbing tremendous financial resources. As their trade terms have not improved, their reliance on international financial institutions has become subject to tough conditions.

According to the World Bank, governments in many developing countries try to provide essential food to the poor at low and stable prices through subsidies in order to encourage political stability and social equity.22 This has, in turn, depressed food production and can be very costly if maintained over long periods. In other words, potential borrowers from the World Bank or the International Monetary Fund (I.M.F.) have to comply with conditions laid down by creditors by adopting austerity measures such as the reform of food- subsidy programmes.

Morocco was the first country in the Maghreb to undertake such a programme in the early 1980s to decrease budget deficits and ease the strains caused by the economic and financial crisis the country had been facing during the last two decades.23 This coincided with the June 1981 riots in Casablanca following food price increases stemming from cuts in public subsidies on basic commodities. From 1980 to 1985, it is reported that the total cost of Morocco's food subsidies amounted to 18,424 million dirhams.24 The cuts were introduced in order to comply with the conditions of the I.M.F. in approving an extended arrangement authorizing Morocco to purchase up to the equivalent of 810,000,000 special drawing rights.25 The effects of the cuts increased specific prices between 45 and 90 per cent. By the beginning of 1984, a series of price rises was again announced, resulting in another important outbreak of riots. Following this reaction, the government decided to introduce a price freeze on all basic commodities.

Tunisia, like Morocco, suffered from the world's economic recession: lower output and prices for oil and phosphate, a slowing down of industrial growth,

22. World Bank, World Development Report (Washington, D.C., 1986), pp.90-94. 23. Karim Laraki, 'Food Subsidies-A Case Study of Price Reform in Morocco', World Bank Working Paper, 50 (Washington, D.C., 1989), p.3. 24. Ibid., p.20. 25. Keesing's Contemporarl Archives, 12 March 1982, pp.31377-8.

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stagnation of agricultural output and an increase in balance of payments deficits.26 On 1 January 1984 and in an effort to combat the situation, the government embarked on a policy of cutting subsidies on food products, thereby raising prices. This was met with a widespread movement of protest forcing the government to reverse its decision saying, in the words of M'Zali, the Prime Minister, that the government had 'underestimated the magnitude of discontent'.27

In view of such a situation, Maghreb states find themselves on the horns of a dilemma: austerity programmes, or political and social stability. The pursuit of either of the two options has its cost and will be to the detriment of the other. What lies ahead could be an exploration of the regional possibilities through an inward-looking policy.

Regional Cooperation Potentialities

In a number of integrative schemes in developing countries relatively little attention has been paid to the agricultural sector. More recently, however, this attitude seems to have been reversed and the need for concerted action among participating members in various regional groupings has become a matter of urgent priority. This has been essentially dictated by the crisis in food security prevailing in many parts of the developing world and its adverse corollary on their balance of payments. The following examples illustrate some of the measures undertaken by regional groupings with the aim of achieving progress towards food security.

The Association of South East Asian Nations (A.S.E.A.N.) signed an agreement in 1979 by which it created an emergency grain reserve of 50,000 tons of rice available to amy member country facing bad harvests. An agricultural development planning centre was also set up in 1981 to conduct research and training and to draw up a regional production plan.28 The Gulf Cooperation Council (G.C.C.) adopted a plan on the storage requirements and regional procurement policy of the member states. A so-called 'unified agricultural policy' was also endorsed by its supreme council.29 Because of natural conditions and the limited availability of financial resources, however, these efforts might be limited more or less to securing stable and reliable sources of provisions. In Africa, the Economic Community of West African States (E.C.O.W.A.S.) adopted an agricultural development strategy in 1982 aiming at sub-regional self-sufficiency. It included measures for selecting seeds and cattle species and called for solidarity among the community members during international commodity negotiations.30 Given the low agricultural output and the increasing dependency of the partner states on foreign food aid, little progress is likely to be made towards these goals. The Southern African

26. David Seddon, 'Bread Riots in North Africa: economic policy and social unrest in Tunisia and Morocco' in Peter Lawrence (ed.), World Recession and the Food Crisis in Africa (london, 1986), pp. 187-9. 27. Keesing's ..., June 1984, p.32945. 28. The Far East and Australasia Yearbook (London, 1991), p.122. 29. The Middle East and North Africa Yearbook (London, 1991), p.215. 30. Africa South of the Sahara Yearbook (London, 1991), p.206.

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Development Co-ordination Conference (S.A.D.C.C.) is another grouping which has given priority to regional food security and to self- sufficiency in basic foods.31 From 1986, the participating countries have been concentrating on a regional early warning system for anticipating food shortages, an inventory of agricultural resources and a regional food programme.32 As these projects cannot be implemented without external sources of funding, their future remains questionable.

In the Maghreb context, it seems that much more attention is now being devoted to the issue of food self-sufficiency at governmental and non- governmental levels, despite the slow pace in taking concrete actions. In this respect, recent seminars have been held in different parts of the region emphasizing the importance of the question. For instance, the 'Institut National d'Etudes de Strategie Globale' (Algeria) assembled numerous Maghrebi scholars in June 1989 to discuss ways of pushing ahead with co- operation in this area.33 A similar seminar was organized by the 'Association des Economistes Tunisiens' with the financial support of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in December 1990. This focused on the problems of Maghrebi agriculture and its incapacity to meet the food requirements of a growing population.34 At the inter-state level and following the establishment of the U.M.A. at the 1989 summit held in Marrakech (Morocco), the member countries gave a mandate to the follow-up committee (Comite de Suivi) to set up a permanent commission for food security. As with other sectoral commissions, the latter was entrusted with the task of exploring regional possibilities and making proposals to the governments in this field. The ultimate aim is to lessen their dependence as heavy importers of foodstuffs and, in the longer term, to achieve self-sufficiency.

This interest may be explained by external pressures from outside the region, especially from the European Community (E.C.). Since independence, the Maghreb countries have maintained and even developed closer links with the E.C. as a major outlet for their agricultural exports, particularly in the case of Morocco and Tunisia.35 The worries and fears expressed by these states about the Community's enlargement and the single market are primarily concerned with the future access of their exports to Community markets. To quote Eberhard Rhein (a representative of the European Commission):

'The share of agriculture in imports and exports is likely to stagnate and even to shrink. The Community will become still more self-sufficient in

31. Peter Meyns, 'The Southern African Development Co-ordination Conference (SADCC) and Regional Co-operation in Southern Africa', in Domenico Mazzeo (ed.), African Regional Organizations (Cambridge, 1984), p.207. 32. Africa South of the Sahara Yearbook, p.219. 33.El-Moudjahid, 29 October 1989. 34. Nouvel-Hebdo (Algiers), 16-22 January 1991. 35. Ahmed Aghrout and Keith Sutton, 'Regional Economic Union in the Maghreb' in The Journal of Modern African Studie.s (Cambridge), 28, 1, March 1990, pp. 129-32.

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traditional Mediterranean products (except dates), while the Maghreb will have to push up its efforts to increase its food self-sufficiency'.36

The uncertainties that stand out on the horizon as regards Maghreb agricultural exports to the E.C. have, to some extent, induced the Maghreb countries to rethink their traditional outlets and to consider new perspectives within their region.

An initial step forward was taken as a result of the signature of an agreement on the exchange of agricultural products between the partner states on 23 July 1990.37 The major aim according to article one is to provide for the gradual establishment of a customs union in which will be developed a 'Maghreb Agricultural Common Market'. In the meantime, the countries concerned made a commitment to strengthen their trade relations in agricultural goods which would benefit from a total dismantling of customs duties and hence free access to the member states' markets. Further to this, the access of these goods, as outlined in article five, was subordinated to the rule of origin. Accordingly, all goods to be traded, whether processed or not, should entirely originate in any of the union's member countries.

In spite of the interest being given to the food issue, the steps taken so far do little to suggest progress towards concrete action; although several agreements were reached in the past, little importance was then attached to their implementation.38 Since the world appears to be evolving towards a system of regional blocs, there will be few, if any, alternatives left to the Maghreb states other than that of strengthening their inter-relations as a group. In the light of this and despite the present limited basis and scope of regional co-operation in the field of agriculture, it is important to identify the potential for action in the short and long terms.

In the short term, the efforts of the partner states might be centred on two areas. First, they should increase co-operation in import procurement with the aim of rationalizing food imports and improving their trading position towards the international market; it is assumed that they will remain potential importers of foodstuffs for a period of time. Such co-operation might be possible through joint import agreements used either for a single commodity or for several. In this respect, their co-operation would enable them to secure the best available terms in purchasing food products.39 Secondly, they might encourage concrete intra-Maghreb trade in a number of agricultural products. The aforementioned 1990 U.M.A. agreement can be considered as a frame within which the process could be set into motion. This presupposes a shift in the traditional direction of their trade links without introducing significant changes in the structure of production and consumption of each country. An

36. Eberhard Rhein, 'The European Community and the Maghreb: prospects for co-operation in the decades ahead', Conference on North Africa and the E.C., organized by the Centre of Near and Middle Eastern Studies, University of London, 10 February 1989. 37. Journal Officiel de la Repuhlique Algerienne, 6, 6 February 1991, pp.210-2. 38. Aghrout, 'South-South Co-operation with Special Reference to the Maghreb Countries', MPhil thesis, University of Salford, 1990. 39. Benachenhou Abdelatif, 'Marche mondiale et strat6gie alimentaire du Tiers-Monde' in The National Institute ftr Global Strategic Studies Report (Algiers), 1988, pp. 162-4.

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investigation of their trade in agricultural goods shows that there is, indeed, a number that can serve as a basis for regional exchanges. Amongst those products listed in Table 5, at least one member country is a potential importer and another is a potential exporter. The table also reveals the limited number of products that can be traded, however, reflecting the weak complementarity of Maghreb agricultural structures. Instead, competition characterizes many of their exports within the same markets. This limited co-operation could well be further weakened in the future if the Maghreb states continue their separate policies of achieving food self-sufficiency. A much more secure future lies in their real determination to tackle the issue together.

In view of the lack of complementarity, future actions might involve the adoption of a common policy giving greater priority to food production as required by the regional market. This is dependent on a strong willingness on the part of the governments concerned to do so, since a certain shift in the present agricultural policies will become a matter of necessity. A first step forward would be the strengthening of a certain form of specialization among partner states. In other words, the emphasis could be placed on the development of the potentialities that a country or a group of countries has in one or more areas of agricultural production. In this way, the rationalization of Maghreb agricultural space can be envisaged: north Libya and Tunisia in olive oil; Morocco in irrigated crops (vegetables and sugar) and dairy products; Mauritania and Morocco in livestock; the plains of Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia in cereals. A further step would be the exploration of areas of specialization that are neglected or not exploited at all.

The implementation of this common policy would necessitate first and foremost a preliminary entente between the member states concerning the distribution of costs and benefits that they might reap. In addition, a set of measures directed to the agricultural sector should include, among other things, the development of national production as a part of regional programmes, providing producers with adequate inputs, and improving incentives.

Conclusion

Three decades of agricultural development in the Maghreb have shown the inability of this sector to keep pace with the growth of population. This suggests that the various policies undertaken up to now have been unequal to the aim of raising agricultural productivity. Besides the relatively unfavourable natural conditions that characterize the region, the different approaches employed by the governments concerned to modernize the rural sector have generated meagre progress. The hailed rhetoric to achieve food self-sufficiency has been inversely proportional with respect to the policies set out to this end.40 The marginalizing of the bulk of small and landless peasants and the focus on developing and promoting large-scale farms for the sake of

40. Omar Bessaoud, 'Evolution de l'ensemble productif agricole et besoins alimentaires en Algerie' in Revue CENEA P (Algiers), 3, September 1985, pp.92-108.

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cultivating cash crops are, to a wider degree, accounting for the food problem prevailing in the U.M.A. countries.

The building of a regional economic community on a sound basis depends on the way the partner states address the various issues, of which the food issue is a major problem area. On the importance given to it will depend the future of other areas of common concern, such as the rising rate of unemployment and the burden of heavy indebtedness. Regional potentialities do exist on a limited scale but the paramount problem to be resolved is the political will to go further in this direction.

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Table 1 Evolution of Cereals Production

(in thousands of tons)

Countries / Years 1975

1435 270

38 3726 1278

1980

2206 215

29 4479 1196

1985

3058 235 49

4878 2124

1989

1778 302 135

7439 639

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, Production Yearbook (Rome, 1981 and 1989)

Table 2 Cereals Imports

(in thousands of metric tons)

Countries / Years 1974 1982 1985 1987 1988

1816 612 115 891 307

3381 849 219

1913 946

5271 1024 240

2270 732

3823 1426 206

2251 1170

6130 1435 219

1643 2116

Source: World Bank, World Development Report (Washington, D.C., 1984, 1990)

Table 3 Share of Food in Total Imports

(in percentage)

Countries / Years

1987, 1988, 1989 and

1975 1980 1985 1987 1988

18 21 19 27 30 15 19 10 15 15

25 26 21 20 20 17 14 12 14 14 15 11 18

Source: World Bank, World Development Report (Washington, D.C., 1979, 1983, 1987, 1989 and 1990). (..): Data not available.

Algeria Libya Mauritania Morocco Tunisia





Table 4 Value of Food Imports

(in thousands of US dollars)

Countries / Years


1975 1980 1985 1988 1989

11405 19201 20650 16697 25737 5392 10971 7884 8337 9886

1039 1063 1194 6317 6968 5623 4622 5500 1905 4076 2996 5260 5550

Source: Food and Agriculture Organization, Trade Yearbook (Rome, 1981 and 1989) (..): Data not available.

Table 5 Potential of Intra-Maghreb Trade

in Agricultural products

Products Importing countries Exporting countries

Olive oil Live animals Fresh vegetables Fresh fruits Dates Almonds Fresh fish

Algeria and Libya Tunisia Algeria and Libya Mauritania Libya Morocco Libya Morocco and Tunisia Morocco and Libya Algeria and Tunisia Libya Algeria and Libya

Tunisia Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia

Source: United Nations Handbook of International Trade and Development Statistics (New York, 1989) and United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Commodity Yearbook (New York, 1989).



the food deficits problem in the arab maghreb union: present state and future perspectives

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