the following presentation was presented to the science
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
ThefollowingpresentationwaspresentedtotheScienceCommitteeatitsJune11,2018meetingforinformationalpurposes.ItdoesnotconstituteendorsementofanykindbytheStateofCaliforniaortheScienceCommittee.
![Page 2: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
SonnyBonoSaltonSeaNWR(ObsidianButte)-September21,2014
SALTONSEAWATERBIRDSURVEYSCURRENTTRENDSANDANALYSISDanOrr–SpatialEcologist,AudubonCaliforniaAndreaJones–DirectorofBirdConservation,AudubonCaliforniaDanCooper–Biologist,CooperEcologicalMonitoringInc.
![Page 3: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
SaltonSeaEnvironmentalChanges• Waterlevelandsalinity• Changinghabitats• ChangingpreyavailabilityAudubonCaliforniaSaltonSeaWaterbirdSurvey(finescaleshorttermtrends)• Overview• Trends
AudubonChristmasBirdCount(largerscalelongtermtrends)• EaredGrebetrends• Impactsrelativetoenvironmentalchange
![Page 4: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
-236
-235
-234
-233
-232
-231
-230
-229
-228
-227
40000
45000
50000
55000
60000
65000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year
Salinity ModeledSalinity SeaLevel
SaltonSeaSalinityandWaterLevel2001–2017
Salinity
(TDS
mg/L)
WaterLevel(N
GVD1929)ft
SalinityModelp-value<0.001R2=0.99
SaltonSeaEnvironmentalChangesWaterlevelandsalinity
IncreaseinsalinityanddecreaseinwaterlevelovertimeattheSaltonSea(datafromBureauofReclamation)2013sawincreasedwaterdrawdownsLet’slookattherateofchange(slope)overtimeinsteadoftherawvaluesovertimetoidentifymomentsofchange
MeasuredSalinityModeledSalinity
WaterLevel
![Page 5: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year
WaterLevelRateofChange
Δ(𝑁
𝐺𝑉𝐷
192
9)𝑓𝑡
/Δ𝑌𝑒
𝑎𝑟
RateofchangeinSaltonSeaSalinityandWaterLevel
2001–2017
Salinity
RateofChange
Δ(𝑇𝐷
𝑆 𝑚
𝑔/𝐿)
/Δ𝑌
𝑒𝑎𝑟
RateofChangeinSalinity
RateofChangeinWaterLevel
SaltonSeaEnvironmentalChangesWaterlevelandsalinity
![Page 6: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year
WaterLevelRateofChange
Δ(𝑁
𝐺𝑉𝐷
192
9)𝑓𝑡
/Δ𝑌𝑒
𝑎𝑟
RateofchangeinSaltonSeaSalinityandWaterLevel
2001–2017
Salinity
RateofChange
Δ(𝑇𝐷
𝑆 𝑚
𝑔/𝐿)
/Δ𝑌
𝑒𝑎𝑟
Rateofincreaseinsalinityincreasesdramaticallyafter2013• 2013hadincreaseof887.5mg/L/year• 2014hadanincreaseof1666.7mg/L/year
• Thatisan88%increase Rateofdecreaseinwaterlevelincreasesdramaticallyafter2013
• 2013haddecreaseof0.192feet/year• 2014hadandecreaseof0.76feet/year
• Thatisan296%increaseintherateofwaterlevelloss
RateofChangeinSalinity
RateofChangeinWaterLevel
SaltonSeaEnvironmentalChangesWaterlevelandsalinity
![Page 7: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Changesinwaterlevelimpacthabitats
ChangesinSalinityimpactpreyspecies• e.g.Fish
ForBirds
SaltonSeaEnvironmentalChangesHabitatandpreyavailability
![Page 8: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Photo:DanCooper
Johnson’sLanding(SaltonCity)June2016
Photo:DanCooper
Johnson’sLanding(SaltonCity)February2015
SaltonSeaEnvironmentalChangesHabitatandpreyavailability
![Page 9: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
SaltonSeaWaterbirdSurveyOverview
SaltonSeaWaterbirdSurveys• Nov2016–Mar2018• 14Sites• 1km2surveyboxes• Surveyedevery2months• 20minutecounts/box
![Page 10: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
MostAbundantSpecies(>1,000pervisit,November-March)• California/Ring-billedGull–min.1,840• RuddyDuck–min.1,673• NorthernShoveler–min.1,521• Western/LeastSandpiper–min.1,127
SaltonSeaWaterbirdSurveyOverview
Initialresults:65totalspeciesofwaterbirds
![Page 11: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Sample
Coun
t(#birds)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR
2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
AudubonCaliforniaWaterbirdSurveyNovember2016–March2018
Totalnumberofbirdsoverthesurveyperiod
Photo:DanCooper
SaltCreekMouthDecember2015
SaltonSeaWaterbirdSurveyTrendsandanalysis
![Page 12: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Sample
Coun
t(#birds)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
NOV JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR
2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018
AudubonCaliforniaWaterbirdSurveyNovember2016–March2018
• Habitatchanges• Preyavailability
Isthisashiftinfunctionalgroups?
Fewfisheatingbirds(HigherTrophicLevel)
Manyshorebirds(LowerTrophicLevel)
SaltonSeaWaterbirdSurveyTrendsandanalysis
DesignPicsInc.;NationalGeographicCreative
RobinL. CDFW
![Page 13: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
p-value<0.05 p-value<0.05 p-value<0.05
Decreaseinbirdsfeedingathighertrophiclevels(Nov./Jan./Mar.)• Statisticallysignificant
SaltonSeaWaterbirdSurveyTrendsandanalysis
![Page 14: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Birdsfeedingatlowertrophiclevels(Nov./Jan./Mar.)• Appeartobestableorincreasingbasedonlimiteddata
SaltonSeaWaterbirdSurveyTrendsandanalysis
Least/WesternSandpiper RuddyDuckDowitcherspp.
AmericanAvocet Black-neckedStilt NorthernShoveler
![Page 15: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
SaltonSeaWaterbirdSurveyTrendsandanalysis
Couldbeshiftinfunctionalgroups?• Theseanalysisindicatealossofhigher
trophiclevelbirds• Trendssuggestwemayseeincreasesin
lowertrophiclevelbirds• Notallarestatisticallysignificant• Additionalyearsofdatawillrefineresults
PopulationLevelImpacts• Unknown• SaltonSeaisimportanttomigratorybirds• Severalrelyonsalinelakes
Seawall,September2017DanCooper
LenBlumin
ShortTermandFineTimeScale
![Page 16: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Audubon’sChristmasBirdCount• CommunityScience• Longtermdataset
• NorthSaltonSea(1965–Present)• SouthSaltonSea(1939–Present)
CBCSaltonSeaSouth1989-2017
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
EaredGrebeAmericanWhitePelicanDouble-crestedCormorantRuddyDuckIncreasedWaterDrawdowns
Year
LnCou
nt
AudubonChristmasBirdCountTrends
![Page 17: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
AudubonChristmasBirdCountEaredGrebetrends
LotemTaylor,NationalAudubonSociety
EaredGrebes• Abundantbutvulnerabletohabitat
change• Lifehistoryisreliantonsalinelakes• Est.90%ofCApopulationstoppedin
winterontheSaltonSeainthepast
![Page 18: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
-1.2
-1
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Year
WaterLevelRateofChange
Δ(𝑁
𝐺𝑉𝐷
192
9)𝑓𝑡
/Δ𝑌𝑒
𝑎𝑟
RateofchangeinSaltonSeaSalinityandWaterLevel
2001–2017
Salinity
RateofChange
Δ(𝑇𝐷
𝑆 𝑚
𝑔/𝐿)
/Δ𝑌
𝑒𝑎𝑟
RateofChangeinSalinity
RateofChangeinWaterLevel
AudubonChristmasBirdCountImpactsrelativetoenvironmentalchange
![Page 19: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
PairControlandImpactSites• Impact–SaltonSea• Control–MonoLake(usedhere)• MoreControlsitestocomeEliminatesNaturalEnvironmentalVariationinPopulationasCauseTestForDifferencesInChange• Betweensitesbeforeandafterimpact(2013)• NOTdifferencesinabundancebetweensites
Difference(Δ)Impact
AudubonChristmasBirdCountImpactsrelativetoenvironmentalchange
DoincreasedDrawdownsLeadToImpactToPopulations?BeforeAfterControlImpactPairedSeries(BACIPS)analysis
![Page 20: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Ifbothsitesexperiencethesamegeneralnaturalenvironmentalvariabilityorclimaticanomalies(i.e.drought/ElNiño/LaNiña)
• Expectdifferencesbetweentwotimeperiodsateachsitetobesimilar
• Ifdifferent
• Pointstolocalimpactascause• Eliminatesnaturalenvironmentalvariationascause
Difference(Δ)
ImpactExpect
AudubonChristmasBirdCountImpactsrelativetoenvironmentalchange
![Page 21: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
ControlSite
ImpactSite
ImpactSite
NorthSaltonSeaDifferenceisstatisticallysignificant(p-value<0.001)
SouthSaltonSeaDifferenceisstatisticallysignificant(p-value<0.001)
AudubonChristmasBirdCountImpactsrelativetoenvironmentalchange
PreliminaryResults• Differencesbetweentimeperiodsat
ControlandImpactsitesaresignificantlydifferent
• Pointstolocalimpactascause• Notapopulationorregionaltrend
![Page 22: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
EnvironmentalChangesAtTheSaltonSeaImpactBirdPopulations• Impactstospeciesreliantonsalinelakes
• Mayleadtochangesinfunctionaldiversity
SaltonSeaEcosystemsLoss• Mosaicofhabitattypes• Birdsareecologicallyimportant• Birdsareindicatorspecies
Conclusions
RecoveryWillRequireSpecialManagement• Prioritizespeciesandhabitatsofhigh
value• Regionalscale• Flywayscale
• Habitatcreationandmaintenance• Wetlands• NestingIslands
• Reliablefishery
![Page 23: The following presentation was presented to the Science](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022042415/625f14ad852eab54d576a879/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)