The European Semester process

…..a streamlined European

Semester for 2015

Barbara KAUFFMANN

Head of Unit

Coordination of country-specific surveillance European Commission, DG Economic and Financial Affairs

Committee of the Regions, 27 February 2015

Agenda

1. Governance changes and the European

Semester: Background

2. A streamlined European Semester for

2015 and Calendar

3. European Semester Package of end

February 2015

3

Financial crisis Economic crisis Sovereign debt

crisis

Crisis of confidence – EA

cohesion

Perm

an

en

t in

sti

tuti

on

al

fram

e s

et

in s

eco

nd

ary leg

isla

tio

n o

r

inte

rn

ati

on

al

Treati

es

Measu

res s

et

in a

d h

oc,

tem

po

rary,

or 'so

ft-l

aw

' fr

am

ew

orks

European Semester

(2011)

Six-Pack (2011)

SGP revision

Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure

European Economic

Recovery Plan

ECB liquidity measures: SMP,

LTRO

Greek Loan Facility

Bank Rescue

European Supervision

Single Superv.

Mechanism

EFSF

ESM

Temp. State Aid Framework

1. Banking

Union

2. Fiscal Union

3. Integrated Econ. Policy Framework

Compact for Growth and Jobs

4. Political Union

Financial Sector Legislation

Bank Restr Resol D Cap. Requirem D/R

TSCG: Compact

Two-Pack (2013)

Draft Budgetary Plans (euro area)

Enhanced surveillance (EA progr. countries)

1. The EU's crisis response in perspective

EFSM

Policies covered during the European Semester

The European Semester covers three main blocks of economic policy coordination:

o structural reforms, focusing on promoting growth and employment in line with the Europe 2020 strategy (i.e. Europe 2020;

o fiscal policies, in order to ensure sustainability of public finances in line with the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP);

o prevention (and correction, if required) of excessive macroeconomic imbalances (MIP)

4

5

A streamlined governance: the European Semester

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Annual Growth Survey 2015 - November 2014: An integrated approach based on three pillars

Also in November 2014:

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1. Alert Mechanism Report

In-Depth Reviews for 16 Member States:

BE, BG, DE, IE, ES, FR, HR, IT, HU, NL, PT, RO, SI, FI, SE, UK

2. Opinions on Draft Budgetary Plans EA

BE, DE, EE, IE, ES, FR, IT, LV, LU, MT, NL, AT, PT, SI, SK, FI

End Feb 2015 European Semester package • 1 "Chapeau" Communication – Commission

conclusions of In-Depth Reviews for 16 MS

• 28 Country Reports – country analysis incl MIP and assessment of CSR compliance

• + EDP actions for BE, IT, FI (126.3) and FR (126.7) extending deadline to 2017

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9

MIP categories Feb 2015

1 No imbalance

2 Imbalances, which

require policy action and monitoring

3

Imbalances, which require decisive policy

action and monitoring

4

Imbalances, which require decisive policy

action and specific monitoring

5

Excessive imbalances, which require decisive

policy action and specific monitoring

6

Excessive imbalances, which require decisive policy action and the

activation of the Excessive Imbalance Procedure

DE, HU

IE, ES, SI

FR, HR, IT, BG, PT

BE, NL, FI, SE, RO, UK

Policy Areas for Country Specific Recommendations 2014

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Employment and social policies

Sound public

finances

Pension and

healthcare

systems

Fiscal

frameworkTaxation

Banking and

access to

finance

Housing

market

Network

industries

Competition

in service

sector

Public

administration

and smart

regulation

R&D and

innovation

Resource

efficiency

Labour

market

participation

Active

labour

market

policy

Wage setting

mechanisms

Labour market

segmentationEducation

Poverty and

social

inclusion

AT

BE

BG

CZ

DE

DK

EE

ES

FI

FR

HU

IT

LT

LU

LV

MT

NL

PL

RO

SE

SI

SK

UK

Public finances Structural reformsFinancial sector

Next steps in the European Semester

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• By mid-April: National Reform Programmes and Stability or Convergence Programmes

• Mid-May: Commission proposals for Country-Specific Recommendations

• June: discussion by Council, endorsement by the European Council of 25-26 June, formal adoption in July

Concluding remarks

• European Semester has improved the budgetary surveillance, economic governance and coordination substantially during the last 4 years

• National ownership is increasing

• First positive results are visible

• Member States should implement CSRs to foster growth, jobs and competitiveness

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