the european commission after enlargement does more add up to less? sebastian kurpas centre for...
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The European Commission after Enlargement
Does More Add Up to Less?
Sebastian Kurpas
Centre for European Policy Studies
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Recent CEPS Study Central research question: How has the European
Commission developed since the 2004 enlargement?
=> Enlargement as one (important) factor for change/continuity, but not the only one
Study based on Extensive data on Commission ‘output’ (PreLex) 29 expert interviews (Commission officials, diplomats) Sample of College minutes Analysis of press coverage (factiva)
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Main Result: Continuity in Output Unlike predictions, the Commission has not
been ‘grid-locked’ Total output (legislative and non-legislative)
has been stable in terms of quantity Even an increase (+18.1%) in non-legislative
output (e.g. Green Papers, Communications)
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Comparison of acts adopted by the Prodi and the Barroso Commission
1152
669
1120
790
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Prodi Commission Barroso Commission
Legislative output
Hard law
Soft law
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Continuity explainedContinuity is mainly due to 2 factors: More streamlined internal management of the
Commission Avoidance of controversial matters
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Avoiding Controversy Fewer entirely “new” proposals (more
amending legislation) A larger and more diverse College (less
collegiality and no voting) A trend towards “output legitimacy” (“Europe
of results”) A change in the institutional balance (towards
the EP, away from the Commission)
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Fewer new proposalsProdi Barroso Change in
numberof new
proposalsNew Amending % New New Amending % New
Regulations 180 311 36.7% 121 332 26.1% -32.8%
Directives 56 81 40.9% 40 112 26.3% -28.6%
Framework decisions
7 0 100% 7 0 100% 0%
Decisions 183 324 35.4% 111 397 21.9% -39.3%
TOTAL 426 726 37.0% 279 841 24.9% -34.5%
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A larger College of Commissioners…
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…with shorter meetings
Delors II (90-95)
Santer (95-99)
Prodi (99-04)
Barroso (04-09)
Average length of meetings
4 hrs 15 min 3 hrs 38 min 2 hrs 59 min 2 hrs 51 min
Size of the College
17(EU-12)
20(EU-15)
20(EU-15)
25 (EU-25)
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More streamlined internal management A more presidential Commission:
Changed role of president (“primus super pares”) Increased use of informal coordination
mechanisms A Stronger Secretariat General Planning as a policy-tool Impact assessments No major impact of increased linguistic diversity No major impact of new staff (so far...)
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Summary 1 May 2004 has not been the watershed that many had
predicted No ‘breakdown’, but continuity comes at a price:
Less collegiality Less controversial proposals
Avoidance of controversy: Certainly partly owed to difficult treaty reform process; BUT: problematic if persistent change (Who will ‘rock the boat’, if
the Commission does not do it anymore?) Too early to make a ‘final verdict’: Consequences of the fall
of the Santer Commission (financial controls, Kinnock Reforms) also only showed full impact in 2003/2004
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Future Perspectives and Trends Legislative Action: Subsidiarity? Alternatives to legislation: Effectiveness &
Accountability? Implementation: Compliance? Legitimacy: Politisation vs. Expertise? Treaty of Lisbon: Consequences for
Commission (e.g.‘double hat’)?
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Thank youFull report The European Commission after Enlargement: Does more add up to less?is available at http://shop.ceps.eu/BookDetail.php?item_id=1620