the energy issue and the possible contribution of various nuclear energy production scenarios part...
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The energy issue and the possible contribution of various nuclear
energy production scenariospart II
H.NifeneckerScientific consultant LPSC/CNRSChairman of « Sauvons le Climat »
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IPCC projections
2030tCO2<50$/tonRenewables: 35% electricityNuclear: 18% electricity
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IEA’s successive Prospects fo Nuclear (World Energy Outlook)
2020 2030
Mtoe TWh % Mtoe TWh %
WEO 1998 604 2317 8
WEO 2000 617 2369 9
WEO 2002 719 2758 11 703 2697 9
WEO 2004 776 2975 12 764 2929 9
WEO 2006 861 3304 10
Alt. 2006 1070 4106 14
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Prospect for nuclear production 2000-2030 TWh (AIEA July 2006)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Am N W Eur Afr Pacif
2000
2010 b
2010 H
2020 b
2020 H
2030 b
2030 H
Am L Eur E MO+As S Ext. O
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Nuclear Intensive Scenarios
•Scenarios by difference:P.A.BauquisD.Heuer and E.Merle
•Objective oriented ScenariosH.Nifenecker et al.
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No miracle from renewables•Hydro:
Limitation of ressource (Europe-USA)Environment and localization (Am.Sud, Asie, Afrique, Russie)Large Investments Reliable, availableMight provide 20% of world electricity.
France: 70TWh/450•Wind
« fatal » EnergyLimit: 10-15% of electricity production
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No miracle with renewables
•Solar
PV: Ideal for isolated sites (Africa, SE Asia). Mostly artificial in Developed Countries and very expansive
Thermal: interesting for heating and warm water
Thermodynamic: Fiability? Hot and dry climates Hot and dry climate.
•Biomass
Bio-fuels (10 Mtep/50)
Wood energy.
Competition with food, energy and environmental balance
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Pierre René Bauquis
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Renewable energies
7 J o u r n é e d e l ’ É n e r g i e 1 4 - 1 8 m a i 2 0 0 1
É l e c t r i c i t é d ’ o r i g i n e r e n o u v e l a b l e e n 1 9 9 5 e t 2 0 5 0 *
G l o b a l F o u n d a t i o n - N o v e m b e r 2 6 / 2 8 , 2 0 0 0 0 P R B 9 _ 0 1 . p p t - P i e r r e R e n é B A U Q U I S
* É q u i v a l e n c e r e t e n u e p o u r l ’ é l e c t r i c i t é : l e n u c l é a i r e e t l e s r e n o u v e l a b l e s o n t é t é c o m p t a b i l i s é s c o m m e s ’ i l s a v a i e n t é t é g é n é r é s p a r u n e f i l i è r e t h e r m i q u e a v e c u n r e n d e m e n t d e 4 0 % ( c o n v e n t i o n u t i l i s é e p a r l e g r o u p e T O T A L ) d o n t p l u s d e 9 5 % d e « g r a n d e h y d r a u l i q u e »
H y d r a u l i q u eH y d r a u l i q u e
É o l i e nÉ o l i e n
B i o m a s s e B i o m a s s e ( f i l i è r e s ( f i l i è r e s é l e c té l e c t . ). )
G é o t h e r m i eG é o t h e r m i e
S o l a i r e S o l a i r e ( p h o t o v o l t a ï q u e )( p h o t o v o l t a ï q u e )
S o l a i r e S o l a i r e t h e r m i q u et h e r m i q u e
7 2 2 . 6 0 07 2 2 . 6 0 0
7 0 0 . 0 0 07 0 0 . 0 0 0
5 . 0 0 05 . 0 0 0
1 0 . 0 0 01 0 . 0 0 0
7 . 0 0 07 . 0 0 0
6 0 06 0 0
--
1 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 01 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 0
2 0 0 . 0 0 02 0 0 . 0 0 0
1 0 0 . 0 0 01 0 0 . 0 0 0
2 0 . 0 0 02 0 . 0 0 0
3 0 . 0 0 03 0 . 0 0 0
--
2 . 4 0 02 . 4 0 0
1 01 0
5 05 0
3 03 0
11
1 01 0
3 . 0 0 03 . 0 0 0
5 0 05 0 0
5 0 05 0 0
1 0 01 0 0
1 0 01 0 0
5 05 0
1 . 3 5 0 . 0 0 01 . 3 5 0 . 0 0 0 2 . 5 0 12 . 5 0 1 4 . 2 5 04 . 2 5 0T o t a lT o t a l
1 9 9 51 9 9 5 2 0 5 02 0 5 0 1 9 9 51 9 9 5 2 0 5 02 0 5 0
P u i s s a n c e s i n s t a l l é e sP u i s s a n c e s i n s t a l l é e sM WM W
É l e c t r i c i t é g é n é r é eÉ l e c t r i c i t é g é n é r é eT W hT W h
S o u r c e : R e v u e d e l ’ É n e r g i e ,5 0 a n s , n ° 5 0 9 S e p t . 9 9
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Renewable electricity
8 J o u r n é e d e l ’ É n e r g i e 1 4 - 1 8 m a i 2 0 0 1
É l e c t r i c i t é d ’ o r i g i n e r e n o u v e l a b l e e n 1 9 9 5 e t 2 0 5 0 *
G l o b a l F o u n d a t i o n - N o v e m b e r 2 6 / 2 8 , 2 0 0 0 0 P R B 9 _ 0 1 . p p t - P i e r r e R e n é B A U Q U I S
* É q u i v a l e n c e r e t e n u e p o u r l ’ é l e c t r i c i t é : l e n u c l é a i r e e t l e s r e n o u v e l a b l e s o n t é t é c o m p t a b i l i s é s c o m m e s ’ i l s a v a i e n t é t é g é n é r é s p a r u n e f i l i è r e t h e r m i q u e a v e c u n r e n d e m e n t d e 4 0 % ( c o n v e n t i o n u t i l i s é e p a r l e g r o u p e T O T A L )* * d o n t p l u s d e 9 5 % d e « g r a n d e h y d r a u l i q u e »
C o n s o m mC o n s o m m . é l e c t r i c i t é. é l e c t r i c i t é( t o u t e s o r i g i n e s )( t o u t e s o r i g i n e s )
H y d r a u l i q u e * *H y d r a u l i q u e * *
A u t r e s r e n o u v e l a b l e sA u t r e s r e n o u v e l a b l e s
T o t a l r e n o u v e l a b l e sT o t a l r e n o u v e l a b l e s 2 5 0 02 5 0 0
1 3 0 0 01 3 0 0 0
2 4 0 02 4 0 0
1 0 0 1 0 0
1 9 9 51 9 9 5
É l e c t r i c i t é g é n é r é eÉ l e c t r i c i t é g é n é r é e
e n e n T W h T W h e n e n G t e p G t e p **
4 2 5 04 2 5 0
4 2 0 0 04 2 0 0 0
3 0 0 03 0 0 0
1 2 5 01 2 5 0
2 0 5 02 0 5 0
0 . 5 20 . 5 2
2 . 82 . 8
0 . 50 . 5
0 . 0 20 . 0 2
1 9 9 51 9 9 5
0 . 90 . 9
9 . 09 . 0
0 . 60 . 6
0 . 30 . 3
2 0 5 02 0 5 0
1 8 . 8 %1 8 . 8 %
1 0 0 %1 0 0 %
1 8 . 0 %1 8 . 0 %
0 . 8 %0 . 8 %
1 9 9 51 9 9 5
1 0 . 0 %1 0 . 0 %
1 0 0 %1 0 0 %
7 . 0 %7 . 0 %
3 . 0 %3 . 0 %
2 0 5 02 0 5 0
6 . 8 %6 . 8 %
3 4 . 0 %3 4 . 0 %
6 . 5 %6 . 5 %
0 . 3 %0 . 3 %
1 9 9 51 9 9 5
5 . 0 %5 . 0 %
5 0 . 0 %5 0 . 0 %
3 . 5 %3 . 5 %
1 . 5 %1 . 5 %
2 0 5 02 0 5 0
S o i t e n % d e sS o i t e n % d e s
c o n s o m m a t i o n sc o n s o m m a t i o n s
é l e c t r i q u e s 2 0 5 0é l e c t r i q u e s 2 0 5 0
S o i t e n % d e sS o i t e n % d e sc o n s o m m a t i o n sc o n s o m m a t i o n s
é n e r g é t i q u e sé n e r g é t i q u e st o t a l e st o t a l e s
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A vision of energy mix by 2050
9 J o u r n é e d e l ’ É n e r g i e 1 4 - 1 8 m a i 2 0 0 1
U n e v i s i o n d e s b i l a n s é n e r g é t i q u e s 2 0 0 0 - 2 0 2 0 -2 0 5 0
G l o b a l F o u n d a t i o n - N o v e m b e r 2 6 / 2 8 , 2 0 0 0 0 P R B 9 _ 0 1 . p p t - P i e r r e R e n é B A U Q U I S
S o u r c e : R e v u e d e l ’ É n e r g i e ,5 0 a n s , n ° 5 0 9 S e p t . 9 9
2 0 0 02 0 0 0
G t e pG t e p %%
2 0 2 02 0 2 0
G t e pG t e p %%
2 0 5 02 0 5 0
G t e pG t e p
P é t r o l eP é t r o l eG a zG a z
C h a r b o nC h a r b o n
3 . 73 . 72 . 12 . 12 . 22 . 2
4 04 02 22 22 42 4
5 . 05 . 04 . 04 . 03 . 03 . 0
4 04 02 72 72 02 0
3 . 53 . 54 . 54 . 54 . 54 . 5
2 02 02 52 52 52 5
%%
E n s e m b l e é n e r g i e s f o s s i l e sE n s e m b l e é n e r g i e s f o s s i l e s 8 . 08 . 0 8 68 6 1 2 . 01 2 . 0 8 78 7 1 2 . 51 2 . 5 7 07 0
R e n o u v e l a b l e sR e n o u v e l a b l e sd o n t f i l i è r e s é l e c t r i q u e sd o n t f i l i è r e s é l e c t r i q u e s
0 . 70 . 7( 0 . 5 )( 0 . 5 )
7 . 57 . 5
11( 0 . 7 )( 0 . 7 )
6 . 56 . 5
1 . 51 . 5( 0 . 9 )( 0 . 9 )
88
N u c l é a i r eN u c l é a i r e 0 . 60 . 6 6 . 56 . 5 11 6 . 56 . 5 44 2 22 2
T o t a l t o u t e s é n e r g i e sT o t a l t o u t e s é n e r g i e s 9 . 39 . 3 1 0 0 . 01 0 0 . 0 1 4 . 01 4 . 0 1 0 0 . 01 0 0 . 0 1 8 . 01 8 . 0 1 0 0 . 01 0 0 . 0
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Energy mix in 2050
11 Jou rn ée d e l’Énerg ie 14-18 m ai 2001
S ources d ’énerg ies prim aires (m onde) : 1900 - 2050
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
1900 1950 2000 2050
Charbon Renouvelables (sauf hydro.)
Pétrole G az naturel
Hydraulique Nucléaire
G lobal Foundation - N ovem ber 26/28, 2000 0 PRB9 _0 1.pp t - P ierre R en é BA UQ UIS
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CO2 emissions
1 0 J o u rn é e d e l’É n e rg ie 1 4 -1 8 m a i 2 0 0 1
É v o lu t io n e s tim é e d e s é m is s io n s d e C O 2
H y p o th è s e 1 : 1H y p o th è s e 1 : 1 G tC G tC g é n è re u n a c c ro is s e m e n t d e 0 .2 7 7 g é n è re u n a c c ro is s e m e n t d e 0 .2 7 7 p p m p p m C OC O 22 d a n s l ’a tm o s p h è re d a n s l ’a tm o s p h è reH y p o th è s e 2 : 1H y p o th è s e 2 : 1 G tC G tC g é n è re u n a c c ro is s e m e n t d e 0 .2 2 8 g é n è re u n a c c ro is s e m e n t d e 0 .2 2 8 p p m p p m C OC O 22 d a n s l ’a tm o s p h è re d a n s l ’a tm o s p h è re
C OC O 22 p p mp p m
2 0 0
2 5 0
3 0 0
3 5 0
4 0 0
4 5 0
5 0 0
5 5 0
1 9 6 0 1 9 8 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 4 0
H y p o th è s e 2H y p o th è s e 2
H y p o th è s e 1H y p o th è s e 1
M a u n a L o aM a u n a L o ad a tad a ta
G lo b a l F o u n d a tio n - N o v e m b e r 2 6 /2 8 , 2 0 0 0 0 P R B 9 _ 0 1 .p p t - P ie r re R e n é B A U Q U IS
c a lc u léc a lc u léo b s e rv éo b s e rv é
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Nuclear production
In Bauquis ScenarioNuclear production
0.6 Gtep 4 Gtep i.e. x 6.5
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Primary Energy (GTEP)
2000 2050
Fossils 7.5 7.5
Hydro 0.7 1.4
Wood 1.2 1.1
Renewable 0.2 5.2
Nuclear 0.6 5.2
Total 10.2 20.4
– Stabilization of fossile contribution– World energy consumption x 2– Renewable = nuclear
Hypothesis 2050
Multiplication by factor 8 • Then increase by 1.2%/year up to 2100
Nuclear :
Elsa Merle and Daniel Heuer
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Objective oriented scenariosH.Nifenecker et al.
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2000 IIASA-WEC Scenarios
• A: strong growth– A1: Oil – A2: Coal– A3:Gaz
• B: Middle of the road• C: Low energy intensity. High electricity
– C1: Ren.+Gaz– C2: Ren.+Nuclear
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GDP/capita 1000$
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
NorthAmerica
WesternEurope
PacificOECD
FormerSovietUnion
EasternEurope
LatinAmerica
M. East&N.Africa
Africa Centrallyplanned
Asia
OtherPacificAsia
South Asia
GD
P/C
apit
a 10
00$
1990
2050 A
2050 B
2050 C
GDP/cap
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Energy Intensities
0,000
0,050
0,100
0,150
0,200
0,250
0,300
0,350
0,400
0,450
0,500
1990 2050 A 2050 B 2050 C
toe/
kilo
$
Energy intensities
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World GDP
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
1990 2050 A 2050 B 2050 C
Scenarios
Wo
rld
GD
P b
illio
n$
World GDP
B2: 110 000
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Primary energy per fuel MToe
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
Coal Oil Nat. Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass(comm)
Biomass(nonc)
Solar Others CO2(MtC)
MT
oe
1990
2050 A1
2050 A2
2050 A3
2050 B
2060 C1
2050 C2
Primary energy per fuel
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A1 A2 A3 B C1 C2 Reserves 1990
Coal+Lignite 200 275 158 194 125 123 540
Oil 300 260 245 220 180 180 146
Gas 210 211 253 196 181 171 133
Exhaustion of fossile reserves(Gtoe)
Exhaustion of fossile reserves
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•Minimize use of fossils for Electricity• « Reasonable » Development of Nuclear
OECD: 85%Transition: 50%China, India, Latin America: 30%
3000 GWe Nuclear
2030-2050
2050
•Minimize use of coal and gas•30% coal China, India; 30% gas Russia; 100% Africa
7500 GWe Nucléaire
2030
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Scenario no coal no gaz in 2050
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
PrimaryEnergy(Mtoe)
PrimaryElectricity(Mtoe)
Nuclear(Mtoe) CO2(Mt C)
Mto
e
2000
2050 A2
2050 C2
2050 N2
B2=18000, Nuclear=1450
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CO2/GDP
0
0,05
0,1
0,15
0,2
0,25
0,3
2000 A2 2050 A2 2050 N1 2050 N2 2050 C2
T(C
)/10
00$
CO2/GDP
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CO2/primen
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
2000 A2 2050 A2 2050 N1 2050 N2 2050 C2
CO
2 to
n(C
)/T
oe
CO2/primen
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Gestion of Natural Uranium Reserves
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Unat exhaustion
0,00E+00
2,00E+06
4,00E+06
6,00E+06
8,00E+06
1,00E+07
1,20E+07
1,40E+07
1,60E+07
1,80E+07
2050 A2 2050 N1 2050 N2 2050 C2
Cu
mu
late
d U
nat
Mto
ns
Unat exhaustion
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Breeding Cycles
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U-Pu versus Th-U cycles
•U-PuFast SpectraPu fuel1.2 GWe reactorsSolid fuels1 year cooling25 years doubling time
•Th-UThermal SpectraPu, then 233U fuel1 GWe reactorsMolten Salts fuel10 days fuel cycling25 years doubling time
U-Pu vs Th-U
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Years
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Nu
mbe
r o
f G
we
Total number of GweNumber of Gwe PWRNumber of Gwe fast reactors
Number of Gwe (PWR and FR) as function of time
Nb GWe
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Years
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
Pu In
vento
ry to
ns
Pu inventorry
Pu inventory
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
years
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Nu
mbe
r o
f G
We
totalPWRThPUThU3
Evolution of the number of Gwe for the Th-U cycle
Nb GWe Th-U
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Years
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
U3
inve
nto
ry to
ns
Evolution of the U3 stockpile
U3 inventory
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Trajectory
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Stabilisation T
•Stabilization of CO2 concentration to 450 ppm•Stabilization of temperature
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E.Merle, D.HeuerAlternative
3 components
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Reactor type3rd
GenerationSodium Fast
Neutron Reactors Thorium
molten salt reactor
Power(GWe) 1.45 1.0 1.0
Date 2010 2025 2030
Fuel UOX Mox U-Pu Thorium + 233U
Fissile component 4.9 % (235U) 11 % (239Pu) 3 % (233U)
Scenario without Th :
•Plutonium Production 250 kg/year 300 kg/year (breeding) -
Scenario with Th :
• 233U Balance 130 kg/year 500 kg/year breeding
• Pu Balance 130 kg/year -200 kg/yearincineration
4 kg/year
Reactor types
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• Les RNR ferment le cycle U/Pu
• 233U production: 450 PWR and 300 FNR
•natU consumption: 7 million tons by 2100•10 times less fissile matter in fuel cycle•Minor actinides production minimized
3 components
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R and D needsstandard reactors
•PWR reactorsSelective reprocessing: extraction of Cs, Sr and M.A.Th-Pu MOx fuel in order to produce U233
•Candu type reactors Use of Th-Pu and, then Th-U3 fuel Reprocssing of Th-U3 fuelOptimization of fuel regeneration
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R and D needsfast neutron reactors
•Sodium cooledVoid coefficientCore Recompaction Th blanketReprocessing of Th blanket
•Lead cooled reactors Corrosion problems Pb-Bi alloys
•Molten salt cooled reactorsChemical compositionCorrosion
•Gas cooled reactors Reprocessing of refractory fuels
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R and D needsmolten salt reactors
•Neutron spectrum optimization•Corrosion•Fuel reprocessing
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Proliferation
• Political or technical question?
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References
• http://www.iiasa.ac.au/web-apps/ggi/ GgiDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=series•Scenarios with an Intensive Contribution of Nuclear Energy to the World Energy SupplyH.Nifenecker et al. Published in IEJE 1999•Scenarios for a Worldwide Deployment of Nuclear Energy Production E. Merle-Lucotte1, D. Heuer, C. Le Brun & J-M. Loiseaux Note LPSC 05-73•“L’Energie de demain: techniques, environnement,économie”, J.L.Bobin, E.Huffer, H.Nifenecker, EDP Sciences 2005, p.81-111•“Accelerator Driven Subcritical Reactors”, H.Nifenecker, S.David,O.Méplan, IOP 2004