the effects of climate change on european lakes eulakes...

European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors

The effects of Climate Change on European LakesEULAKES Project: from knowledge to possible actions

Nicola Gallinaro – Project Coordinator

Castelletto di Brenzone, lì 14 dicembre 2010

•Project funded by theEuropean TerritorialCooperation Central Europe programme

•Budget: 2.910.799 euro

•Period: 1st April 2010 – 31st March 2013

•9 partners from 4 countries are involved

FUNDING

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Lake Charzykowskie53° 46’ N 17° 30’ Ealtitude: 120 m a.s.l.max. depth: 30.5 mmean depth: 9.8 marea = 13 km2

volume = 0.13 km3

CENTRAL EUROPE REGIONS

Lake Garda45° 42’ N 10° 43’ Ealtitude: 65 m a.s.l.max. depth: 350 mmean depth: 133 marea = 368 km2

volume = 49.03 km3

Lake Neusiedler47° 38’ N 16° 41 E

altitude: 115 m a.s.l.max. depth: 2.2 mmean depth: 0.8 marea = 178 km2

volume = 0.25 km3

The lake network

Lake Balaton46° 50’ N 17° 44 E

altitude: 105 m a.s.l.max. depth: 12.2 mmean depth: 3.1 marea = 593 km2

volume = 1.90 km3

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THE PARTNERSHIP

should serve as a coordinating platform for enhancingthe value of lakes and basins environmental governance.

THE PROJECT VISIONA CALL TO ACTION

Lake landscape, unique wildlife, and recreationalopportunities drawing millions of tourists annually,

PROJECT VISION A CALL TO ACTION

urban sprawl, air and water pollution, and habitat fragmentation are already stressing lake basin ecosystems

PROJECT VISION A CALL TO ACTION

Global climate change looms as an additional threat on the regions economy, population and wildlife by changingclimate patterns and compounding the negative effects ofcurrent environmental problems

PROJECT GENERAL OBJECTIVES

supporting the sustainable management of lakes basin fostering a combination of

- monitoring - vulnerability and risk assessment, - participative planning and discussion

to answer to climate change and other environmental stressors

PROJECT GENERAL OBJECTIVES

To achieve the general objectives, the project will:

(i) support the development and implementation of long-term lake management plans which emphasize natural resources conservation, management and adaptation,

(ii) promote the sustainable management of the lakes natural resources through an innovative multi-stakeholder platform,

(iii) build awareness among local communities and different sectors;

(iv) improve collaboration with other Central European lake regions

PROJECT SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

to achieve to a better understanding of ecological vulnerability of Central European Lakes

in response to the potential effects of climate change in order to enhance mitigation and adaptation strategy

The specific project objectives are focus on the following key issues:

- Vulnerability assessment with regard to climate change and other environmental stressors (identification of key environmental stressors and risks)

- Mitigation and adaptation strategies to support decision makers and basin planning (analysis of existing lake management plans and strategies

- Development of a catalogue of potential mitigation and adaptation measures

- Integration of methods and experience at local and European scale;

- Local pilot actions

- Environmental governance

- Communication and dissemination

PROJECT SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES

The environmental issues

Big European Lakes are going to face environmental problems related to climate change

The climate change could have effects on a broad spectrum of factors, phenomena or agents, usually of anthropogenic origin, that influence the state of ecological systems

Some concepts: ENVIRONMENTAL STRESS

A situation in which an anthropogenic stressor act on a population, community or ecosystem with sufficient effects to cause a prolonged disruption of energy flow and pattern of energy storage, so as to alter the state and stability characteristics of the affected system with a net loss of sustained benefits

With the usual context of natural resource management, ecological stress of this type would be of concern because of the potential for the net loss of sustained economic, social, aesthetic or ecological benefit

SomeEnvironmentalStressors:

Land useHydrometeorologyNutrient loadsSediment loadsHabitat changesExotic species invasionsToxic load/exposure

Some Responseindicator:

Algal biomass and classcompositionWater clarityBiomass productionRelative fish speciesabundance/harvestBiotic carbon mass budgetHypolimnetic DO conditionsBioaccumulativeChemicals of Concern(BCCs)

THE PROJECT ACTIONS

IMPLEMENTATION OF EXISTING MONITORING SYSTEMS (WP3): Developing new approaches to evaluate lake status in a changing environment

VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT (WP4) Improving understanding of integrated vulnerability of lake ecosystems

The technical and scientificalWORKPACKAGES (WP)

PILOT ACTIONS (WP5): Using advanced case studies to support the definition of the common approach)

Main contents:• Lake ecological history characterisation• Survey of existing Monitoring systems• Development and application of a set of tools: EULAKES

model

IMPLEMENTATION OF EXISTING MONITORING SYSTEMS

Developing new approaches to evaluate lake status in a changing environment

WP Leader: Agenzia Protezione Ambiente Trento

WP Budget: 635.426,00 €

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Long term ecological evolution of CE Lakes

Definition of natural ecological status, reference conditions before human impacts, and restoration targets of each of the lakes studied, describing secular scale lake history under environmental changing conditions

Intermediate transnational report on long term ecological trends of lakes



Final transnational report on long term ecological trends of lakes



First transnational report on long term ecological trends of lakes

Colonisation history by harmful algae

Study of resistance cells (akynetes) in the sediment of each lake and hatching experiments to infer long term colonisation dynamics by potentially toxic cyanobacteria and to forecast future lake vulnerability.

Transnational report on colonisation history and lake vulnerability

Lake ecological history characterisation

Survey of existing Monitoring systems

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Survey of existing monitoring systems and information

review, in collaboration with relevant local authorities, of current monitoring systems towards a common start up based on real needs and integrated with existing monitoring systems.

1 international survey report

Selection of diagnostic variables

Analysis of diagnostic variables applied to assess lake condition and changes in European lake ecosystem. 1 technical report

Development and application of a set of tools

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Running and update EULAKE model

The different output will be collected, merged and analysed using a model developed in GIS. A validation of the model is performed.

Syntetic Report description and a set of thematic maps

International dissemination event

International event on the results achieved in this work package, to be addressed to target group of the project

International event

Shorezone functionality map for each lake available in WEB GIS format

Implementing monitoring systems using remote sensing technique

The new integrated approach will suggest some coordination and improvment of the existing monitoring systems.

Monitoring system review and update

EULAKE Model set up and data collection

Developing a new integrated approach to investigate, map and compare vulnerability of big lakes. The approach will be based on the integration between already running in situ measurements, GIS analysis, ecological index and remote sensing techniques

1 new Integrated method (guidelines, and software application)

Developing remote sensing technique approach

Running model using satellite images to map and describe lake statusMapS available in WEB GIS format

Application of SFI results to land planning

The aim of SFI is to describe the ecological status of shore zones and also to support land planning decision. The SFI maps can be used to predict scenarios related to different land uses.

WP3 CORE OUTPUT: EULAKES MODELA WEB GIS tool to facilitate analysis and visualisation of data and information

The scientific innovation as immediate support to a conscious territorial planning: the definition of joint tools of research and monitoring is useful to face common problems

EULAKESModeling/Monitoring/Research in WP3 approach

Models provide insight and make projections

Research provides Understandingand parameterization for ModelDevelopment

Monitoring provides input and credibilityfor Models

Main contents:

• Vulnerability assessment• Emerging risk• Climate change scenarios simulation and

exploration• Scenario impact assessment and

adaptation/mitigation strategies

VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENTImproving understanding of integrated vulnerability of lake ecosystems

WP Leader: Austrian Institute of Technology

WP Budget: 599.950,00 €

Maps of simulation on climate changing and state of water

Vulnerability assessment

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Joint lake vulnerability and risk assessment methodology

Transnational approach for joint vulnerability and risk assessment of Central European lake regions. Identification and assessment of main stressors and potential impacts. Validation and extension of risk assessment methods already applied.

Maps of lake vulnerability

Creation of vulnerability and risk maps for the partner lake regions

Emerging risks

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Impacts on lake hydrology and water quality

Analysis of impacts on the lake hydrology and water quality of the partner lakes due to environmental stressors (discharges, nutrients, diffuse pollution, cyanobacteria, macrophytes etc.)

Analysis of new and invasive species

Comparative analysis of newly introduced species in the partner lakes to identify the extent of risk for the partner lakes. Attention will be given to the effects of these introductions on the lake ecosystem.

Describe shore zone functionality status, especially vegetation community

Application of SFI index to study especially vegetation community of lake shore zone and detect invasive species of vegetation.

Climate change scenarios simulation and exploration

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Regional climate change scenario simulation and exploration of results

Climate simulation runs for the Alpine area with CLM (10km grid-spacing), exploration of REMO and CLM results for Poland (20km grid-spacing). Calculation of CC





Scenario impact assessment and adaptation/mitigation strategies

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International event on the results achieved in this work package, to be addressed to target group of the project

defining the environmental impact ofdifferent management scenarios

Using EULAKES model different future risk scenarios will be generated

Impacts of climate change scenarios

The impacts of climate change scenarios on the lake water body (water quantity, quality and temperature), the lake shore zones, grasslands and land use within the lake basin will be assessed

Mitigation and adaptation measures and strategies

Development of possible adaptation strategies for lake management responding to regional climate change predictions (agriculture, tourism, wastewater discharges, protection zones, fishery, renaturation measures etc.).

Multi-criteria assessment of measures

Definition of different objectives and criteria (environmental, economic, social etc.). The measures will be assessed using a multi-criteria approach.

Climate change scenariusThematic Maps

WP4 CORE OUTPUT: EULAKES MODELMaps of simulation on climate changing and state of water

• The role of agriculture in a climate change scenarius (A)

• Status and future dynamics of new species (H)

• Cyanobacteria and water quality: the effects on tourism and potable water (I)

• Sludge permeable and heavy metals (PL)

PILOT ACTIONSUsing advanced case studies to support the definition of the common approach

WP Leader: University of Pannonia

WP Budget: 654.832,00 €

Enhancing the differences in every lake to agree on a common transnational approach for protection

Main contents:• Development of guidelines for lake and basin management• Building and management governance platform (stakeholder

participation)

JOINT TRANSNATIONAL STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT A NEW MODEL OF ENVIRONMENTAL GOVERNANCE (WP6)Mitigation and adaptation strategy to support decision makers and environmental governance

A platform at local and international level based on innovative and European governance models

The GOVERNANCE WP

WP Leader: Naturschutzbund

WP Budget: 292.381,00 €

COMMUNICATION AND DISSEMINATION

COMMUNICATION AND KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT (WP2)Ensure wide project promotion of output and results

MANAGEMENT AND COORDINATION (WP1)

WP Leader: Comunità del Garda

WP Budget: 411.094,00

WP Leader: Comunità del Garda

WP Budget: 304.242,00 €

LOCAL COMMUNITY EXPECTATIONS

The project aims to create a debate and coordinationplatform on environmental lake governance

Eulakes should link scientists, technicians, local autorities, NGO and private citizensto enhance the attention on lake future

Data

Decision

Knowledge and understanding

Information

Incr

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ngut

ility

Increasing resources and knowledge requirements

Analisy

s and

visuali

zatio

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Modelling

Syntesisand

forecasting

The EULAKES path

USERS/STAKEHOLDERS- research scientist- Resources managers – environmental agengies at alllevels- Non governamental organizations- students and young generations- General pubblic

RESOURCES TO PROTECTLiving resources (biodiversity)Human healthHabitat protection/preservationChemical integrity

The WHO and WHY of EULAKES

POTENTIAL ISSUES FOR NEXT EULAKES DEBATESARE WAITING FOR US

- Ecological and human health effects of persistent toxicchemicals

- Non indigenous species invasions, spread, and ecosystems effects;

- Shorezones quantity and quality protection- protection of drinking water intakes from chemical and

microbiological contamination- Eutrophication

The WHAT of EULAKES

FROM THE LAKES ……………

TO THE BASINS ……………

KEEP THEM GREAT !!!

www.eulakes.eu

Let’s stay together with

the effects of climate change on european lakes eulakes...

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