new hampshire – ocean acidification?...acid rain status and trends new hampshire lakes, ponds and...

New Hampshire – Local Factors in

Ocean and Coastal Acidification.

Ken Edwardson

Coastal Marine Natural Resources and

Environment Commission

June 19th, 2017

How would I describe OCA in

Great Bay?

Ocean Acidification in the Gulf of Maine,

Dr. Joe Salisbury, UNH (March 20, 2017 )

2

Measures and Estuarine Drivers

• Measures

– Clean Water Act Assessments

– pCO2, Aragonite Saturation, pH

• Estuarine Drivers

– Atmospheric Loading

– Freshwater Inputs

– Temperature

– Nutrients

– Carbon Storage

3

pH Assessment

Draft 2016 305(b)/303(d)

Healthy

Unhealthy

Based on the Water

Quality Standards

8.5 < Waterbody > 6.5

*All other

marine waters

are unassessed.

4

pCO2 – Great Bay (GRBGB)

5

ΩAragonite – Great Bay (GRBGB)

6

pH – Great Bay (GRBGB)

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

pH

"Current" Line for

2016pH-24HR_MIN

pH-24HR_MAX

pH-GRAB

pH-Max-Magex

pH Max

pH Min

pH-Min-Magex

GREAT BAY - COND

APPR

(NHEST600030904-04-

05)

8

Atmospheric Loading Reductions

9

National Trends in Emissions

NHDES 2015. Acid Rain Status and Trends New Hampshire Lakes, Ponds and Rainfall.10

NH Trend in Precipitation Acidity


Loading reductions confirmedpH improvements slow


Why it matters

• Demonstrates that the Clean Air Act is being

successful.

• Demonstrates that those successes are slow.

• pH of the freshwater inputs to our estuaries are

likely improving.

14

Freshwater Inputs

Ocean Acidification in the Gulf of Maine,

Dr. Joe Salisbury, UNH (March 20, 2017 ) 15

Annual Precipitation, Durham

(1900-2016)

Statistically significant (p=0.004) increase (~19%) from 1900-2016.

y = 0.062x - 80.344R² = 0.0696

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

An

nu

al In

che

s o

f P

reci

pit

atio

n

16

Annual Precipitation Events,

> 1 inch in 24 Hours (1900-2016)

Non statistically significant (p=0.49) increase (~9%) from 1900-2016.

y = 0.007x - 4.0715R² = 0.0041

0

5

10

15

20

25

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Day

s th

at h

ave

Re

cord

er

Pre

cip

itat

ion

> 1

In

ch

Recorded Precip. > 1 inch in 24 hours

17

(2010 Spierre and Wake. Extreme

Precipitation Events for the

Northeastern United States 1948-

2007.)

Durham

18


> 0.5 inch in 24 Hours (1900-2016)

Statistically significant (p=0.009) increase (~20%) from 1900-2016.

y = 0.0411x - 53.951R² = 0.0574

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Day

s th

at h

ave

Re

cord

er

Pre

cip

itat

ion

>

0.5

Inch

Recorded Precip. > 0.5 inch in 24 hours

19


(1900-2016)

y = 0.231x - 342.24R² = 0.2209

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Day

s o

f R

eco

rde

r P

reci

pit

atio

n

Days with Recorded Precip.

Statistically significant (p<0.001) increase (~28%) from 1900-2016.20

Why it matters

• Increased precipitation brings increased runoff

of acidifying compounds and nutrients.

• Increased storm size shortcuts the natural

infiltration and filtering process of acidifying

compounds and nutrients.

21

Annual Freshwater Flow (1935-2016)

Non statistically significant (p = 0.17 and 0.22) increases (~15-17%) from 1935-2016.

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

An

nu

al A

vera

ge F

low

(cf

sm)

Oyster River,01073000

Oyster River,+0.0031 cfsm/year(p=0.18)

Lamprey River,01073500

Lamprey River,+0.0027 cfsm/year(p=0.22)

22

Why it matters.

• Increased runoff reflects the precipitation and

brings increased runoff of acidifying

compounds and nutrients.

• Increased runoff decreases estuarine salinity

and buffering thereby decreasing the potential

for shell formation.

23

Water Temperature

24

Squamscott River – GRBSQ

(July, August, September)

y = 0.1118x - 202.08R² = 0.2956

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

Tem

pe

ratu

re (

C)

95th Percentile

Median

5th Percentile

Linear (Median)

Almost statistically significant (p=0.055) increase (~6%) from 1900-2015. 25

Great Bay – GRBGB

(July, August, September)

Not statistically significant (p=0.85) increase (~0.5%) from 1900-2015.

y = 0.0087x + 3.6158R² = 0.0034

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2000 2005 2010 2015

Tem

pe

ratu

re (

C)

95th Percentile

Median

5th Percentile

Linear (Median)

26

Why it matters.

• Increased temperature would increase the

potential aragonite saturation.

• Increased temperature is among the stressors to

native marine life.

27

Nutrients

28

Great Bay Total Nitrogen

(GRBAP, GRBGB, GRBSQ)

NHDES 2017. Technical Support Document for the Great Bay Estuary Aquatic Life Use Support

Assessments, 2016 305(b) Report/303(d) List. 29

Great Bay Total Nitrogen

(GRBGB)



Great Bay Chlorophyll a

(GRBAP, GRBGB, GRBSQ)




Assessments, 2016 305(b) Report/303(d) List.

Great Bay Chlorophyll a(GRBGB)

32



Great Bay Dissolved Oxygen (mg/L)(GRBAP, GRBGB, GRBSQ)

33

Summer Minimums



Great Bay Dissolved Oxygen (mg/L)(GRBGB)

34

Summer Minimums



Great Bay Dissolved Oxygen (% Sat.)(GRBAP, GRBGB, GRBSQ)

35



Great Bay Dissolved Oxygen (% Sat)(GRBGB)

36

Nutrient/Dissolved Oxygen –

pH Signal?

37

Example: 2012, GRGSQ

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

8.4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

7/30 8/1 8/3 8/5 8/7 8/9 8/11 8/13

pH

Dis

solv

ed

Oxy

gen

(m

g/L)

DissolvedOxygen(mg/L)

pH

38

Photosynthesis/respiration in control:

high salinity, minimal flush, large pH

swings

Tide in control: lower salinity, higher flush,

smaller pH swings, better pH overall

pH

39


4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

pH

"Current" Line for

2016pH-24HR_MIN

pH-24HR_MAX

pH-GRAB

pH-Max-Magex

pH Max

pH Min

pH-Min-Magex

GREAT BAY - COND

APPR

(NHEST600030904-04-

05)

40

pH – Squamscott/Great Bay (GRBSQ)

41

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

pH

"Current" Line for

2016pH-24HR_MIN

pH-24HR_MAX

pH-GRAB

pH-Max-Magex

pH Max

pH Min

pH-Min-Magex

SQUAMSCOTT

RIVER NORTH

(NHEST600030806-01-

02)

Eelgrass Carbon Sequestration?

Decreasing sequestration capacity.



Ocean Acidification Measures the

Great Bay Estuary

Factors for Acidification Trend

pCO2 No data

Aragonite Saturation No data

pH Trends analysis not

attempted.

43

Ocean Acidification Stressors

Great Bay EstuaryFactors for

Acidification

Trend Implication Management

NOx and SOx in

Precipitation

Reduced. Improves pH 1o - Global

2o - Local

Total Precip. Increasing Decreases pH 1o – Global/Local

Storm Size Increasing in New

England

(except Durham)

Decreases pH 1o – Global/Local

Annual Flow Increasing Decreases pH 1o – Global/Local

Water

Temperature

Not detected in Great

Bay

(GOM increasing)

Could improve pH

(but add stressors)

1o - Global

2o - Local

Nutrient Load High but some areas

decreasing and more

decreases coming.

Decreases will improve

pH

1o - Local

2o - Global

Eelgrass Reduced Decreases pH

(lost carbon storage)

1o - Local

2o - Global44

Summary

• Calcifies in NH estuaries are at risk.

• Some local stressors getting better.

• Some local stressors getting worse.

• Local opportunities to promote resilience.

45

Discussion?

Contact Information:

Ken Edwardson

Senior Scientist

Watershed Management Bureau

New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services

[email protected]

(603) 271-8864

46

mailto:[email protected]

Living Seagrass

Biomass MgC ha-1

(mean +/- 95%CI)

Soil Corg MgC ha-1

(mean +/- 95%CI) Source

North

Atlantic0.85 (+/- 0.19) 48.7 (+/- 14.5)

Fourqurean et al.

2012

Global

Average2.51 (+/- 0.49) 194.2 (+/- 20.2)

Fourqurean et al.

2012

Mass. Eelgrass

Meadows0.25-3.0 12-50 EPA 2014/2015

Eelgrass Carbon Sequestration

49

Sediment Carbon Accumulation Rates

Site Accumulation Rate

(g/cm2/yr)

Core age (yrs)

Great Bay 1.0 20

Gloucester 0.12 100+

Cohasset 0.2 100

Pleasant Bay 0.3 80

Ninigret Pond 0.35 40

EPA 2017. Zosterapalooza.50


4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

pH

"Current" Line for 2016

pH-24HR_MIN

pH-24HR_MAX

pH-GRAB

pH-Max-Magex

pH Max

pH Min

pH-Min-Magex

Monthly Median, pH-

GRABMonthly Median, pH-

24HR_MAXMonthly Median, pH-

24HR_MIN

GREAT BAY - COND

APPR

(NHEST600030904-04-

05)

51

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

pH

Month

pH-24HR_MAX

pH-24HR_MIN

Monthly Median, pH-

24HR_MAX

Monthly Median, pH-

24HR_MIN

pH-Max-Magex

pH Max

pH Min

pH-Min-Magex

GREAT BAY - COND

APPR

(NHEST600030904-04-

05)

52



53

pH – Squamscott/Great Bay (GRBSQ)

54

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Flo

w (

cfsm

)

pH

Month

pH-24HR_MAX

pH-24HR_MIN

Monthly Median,

pH-24HR_MAX

Monthly Median,

pH-24HR_MIN

pH-Max-Magex

pH Max

pH Min

pH-Min-Magex

Monthly Median,

Flow (cfsm)

SQUAMSCOTT

RIVER NORTH

(NHEST600030806-01-

02)

new hampshire – ocean acidification?...acid rain status and trends new hampshire lakes, ponds and...

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