the economic impacts of climate change in the u.s. a recent study conducted by the center for...
TRANSCRIPT
The Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the U.S.
• A recent study conducted by the Center for Integrative Environmental Research finds that economic costs will be far-reaching and affect all geographic areas of the nation if nothing is done.
• The CIER research finds that the impact of climate change events will affect both the natural environment and existing infrastructure
• Their report reviews several economic studies…
• And relates these to several predicted climate change impacts.
Source: Matthias Ruth, Dana Coelho, and Daria Karetnikov. A Review and Assessment by the Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER) at the University of Maryland, October 2007. Center for Integrative Environmental Research, University of Maryland.
Impacts in the U.S.• Effects experienced across all regions,
but the severity will be “unevenly distributed across regions and within the economy and society.1”
• It is estimated that for sectors of the economy that provide essential goods and services, the negative effects will be significantly greater than the positive.
• The impact of climate change will severely strain government budgets – local, state and federal.
• Secondary effects: higher prices, reduced income and job losses2
1Matthias Ruth, Dana Coelho, and Daria Karetnikov. A Review and Assessment by the Center for Integrative Environmental Research (CIER) at the University of Maryland, October 2007. Center for Integrative Environmental Research, University of Maryland2 Ibid.
Economic Sectors/Industries most directly affected
1. Agriculture
• In some parts of the nation, growing conditions will improve as temperatures continue to rise (colder regions become warmer)
• Other parts of the nation are projected to see worsening conditions as water resources dwindle, rainfall becomes more frequent (or infrequent), and land becomes unsuitable for farming.
• Changes in climate are also associated with an increase in the spread of pests and plant diseases that previously would not have had an impact (CIER)
In Western U.S.: A recent New York Times report1 notes that the glaciers of Glacier National Park in Montana are rapidly disappearing, threatening the ecosystem of the Western U.S. The report notes:
“A century ago, this sweep of mountains on the Canadian border boasted some 150 ice sheets, many of them scores of feet thick, plastered across summits and tucked into rocky fissures high above parabolic valleys. Today, perhaps 25 survive. In 30 years, there may be none”.
• Following the winter thaw, melting ice has provided a vital source of water for residents and farmers downstream.
• But as a result of a warming climate, the glaciers are disappearing.
1Source: MICHAEL WINES “Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park.” New York Times, November 22, 2014.
Natural Resources Defense Council. Climate Change Threatens Health, http://www.nrdc.org/health/climate/drought.asp
• …and the peak flow of water from the melting glaciers is starting much earlier in Spring and ending much too soon – before crops are ready to be harvested – resulting in water shortages when demand is at its peak...resulting in an imbalance in the demand and supply for water.
Agriculture severely impacted. What other affects from this?• Other sectors of the economy affected?
2. Recreation – ski resorts: “Mountain snow packs are shrinking. In recent decades, rising winter temperatures have increasingly changed snows to rain.” Tourism dollars shrink
3. Population: Many densely populated cities & towns south of glaciers; including a very large number of businesses.4. Wildlife/ecosystems: as habitats disappear, species die out or are threatened.
1Source: MICHAEL WINES “Climate Change Threatens to Strip the Identity of Glacier National Park.” New York Times, November 22, 2014. Photo: Lauren Grabelle for The New York Times
Northeastern U.S.
2. Infrastructure/buildings/transportation systems especially in coastal areas are highly vulnerable.• Value of residential and commercial property
in northeast was estimated by CIER to be $4 trillion in 2004; a decade later, this value is clearly more.
• Interestingly, the Center’s analysis in 2004 predicted the damages from a category 4 hurricane hitting a major metropolitan area as costing between $50 and $60 billion in insurance losses.
• The estimated losses to property and businesses from Hurricane Sandy in 2012 reached an estimated $65 billion.
• The estimated losses to property, businesses and infrastructure from Hurricane Sandy in 2012:
• Total $65 billion1
• New Jersey: $38.6 billion2
• New York: $32 billion- statewide; $19 billion in New York City3
• MTA: $4.75 billion in infrastructure losses; $246 million in lost revenue2.
Predicted losses from sea level rise: The study predicted (in 2004) a sea level rise in the northeast-mid Atlantic region of 20 inches by year 2100.1 USA Today, “Hurricane Sandy, drought cost U.S. $100 billion.” Jan. 25, 20132 CNN, “Hurricane Sandy Fast Facts,” Nov. 5, 20143 New York Times, “Hurricane Sandy’s Rising Costs”, November 27, 2012
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2008, “Rapidly Rising Seas: What the Science Tells Us,” http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/global_warming/Causes-of-Sea-Level-Rise.pdf
• However, a more recent estimate notes that “From 1993 to 2008, the global rate has risen to 0.11 to 0.13 inch per year,”(Union of Concerned Scientists).
• At this rate – an increase of an average .12 inch per year – would mean that this 20 inch threshhold would not be reached in 2100; however, if accelerated rates of rising seas are factored in, it well could.
• Many of the CIER study’s cost estimates of climate change related damage – made ten years ago – are interestingly quite accurate.
• For instance, the study notes the cost of and type of protections that would be needed to protect vulnerable coastal areas.
Union of Concerned Scientists, 2008, “Rapidly Rising Seas: What the Science Tells Us,” http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/legacy/assets/documents/global_warming/Causes-of-Sea-Level-Rise.pdf
For instance, the following is one conclusion and recommendation:
“Constructing sea wall and bulkhead protection for just 25% of the length of the region’s coastline would cost from roughly $300 million to just under $8 billion. Constructing dikes or levees to protect against a one-meter rise in sea level would run from $300 million to just over $1.5 billion for a quarter of the coastline.”
These are all enormous economic costs: And the reading covered in last week’s class talked about plans for precisely such projects in the New York area that are planned for the near future.
2. Income loss
• Losses to tourism industries from snow melt; flood; drought.
• This translates to $millions in lost income to businesses and workers as jobs once in demand dwindle with weak business conditions.
• Losses to agricultural industries from lower output.
• Losses to fisheries from depleted species.• Rising government indebtedness resulting
from needs to invest in rebuilding and repairing damaged infrastructure.
• Vulnerability of a significant percentage of nation’s population living in coastal areas to lost jobs and business resulting from a severe weather event or disaster
Source: Purdue Univ. http://news.uns.purdue.edu/images/+2009/climatechange-maps.jpg
