THE DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND

And the Challenge of Achieving

the FP2020 Mandate

within the Framework of the ICPD

and Millennium Development Goals

by Bob Gillespie President, Population Communication

and Gillespie Foundation

The population of the PPD countries in 1962 at the time of the beginning of most family planning programs was 1,662,000,000. When the PPD was founded in 1994 at the ICPD, the PPD countries total population was 3,262,000,000. The current population of all PPD countries is 4,275,000,000 and the population is projected to double by the turn of the century.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1962 1994 2013

Popu

lati

on in

Mill

ions

PPD Countries Bangladesh Benin China Colombia Egypt Ethiopia The Gambia Ghana India Indonesia Jordan Kenya Mali Mexico Morocco Nigeria Pakistan Senegal South Africa Thailand Tunisia Uganda Vietnam Yemen Zimbabwe

The following population projection charts

assume a TFR of 1, 2, 3, the current TFR and

desired family size as reported in the latest DHS.

122,241,000

206,888,700

331,386,200

165,121,200

263,777,500

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Year

TFR 1

TFR 2

TFR 3

TFR 2.5 (Current TFR - PRB)

Bangladesh

Egypt

67,706,000

111,640,300

80,320,500

172,667,500

165,095,000

-

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

180,000,000

200,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

One Child Family

Two Child Family

Three Child Family and Current TFR (PRB)

Desired Family Size of 2.9 Children (DHS)

Ghana

24,512,300 19,888,664

31,947,582

48,204,094

68,858,365

75,942,140

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

One Child Family

Two Child Family

Three Child Family

Current TFR 4.0 (PRB 2010)

Desired Family Size 4.3 (DHS 2008)

India

847,526,800

1,420,695,000

1,642,565,000

2,258,608,000

1,220,946,000

2,359,256,000

0

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

TFR of 1 TFR of 2 TFR of 2.3 (Desired Family Size - DHS) TFR of 3 TFR of 3.1 (Current TFR - PRB)

Nigeria

160,254,400

101,289,300

160,533,200

238,779,500

554,211,400

646,521,900

0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

700,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

TFR of 1 TFR of 2 TFR of 3 TFR of 5.7 (PRB actual TFR) TFR of 6.3(DHS desired family size)

Kenya

40,668,600

29,921,168

51,632,719

81,894,517

117,012,347

149,824,676

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

160,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

One Child Family

Two Child Family

Three Child Family

Desired Family Size 3.9 (DHS 2008 - 2009)

Current TFR 4.6 (PRB 2010)

Pakistan

146,598,400

237,930,500

358,026,700

508,573,600

177,000,000

525,344,600

0

100,000,000

200,000,000

300,000,000

400,000,000

500,000,000

600,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

TFR of 1

TFR of 2

TFR of 3

TFR of 4 (current TFR - PRB)

TFR of 4.1 (Desired family size - DHS)

Uganda

33,532,100 23,529,404

40,932,741

63,642,982

122,597,492

199,909,462

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

One Child Family

Two Child Family

Three Child Family

DHS Desired Family Size (2000)

Current TFR (PRB 2010)

At the time of the founding of the PPD, Haryono Suyono, representing President Suharto of Indonesia, presented the Statement to Nafis Sadik at the ICPD with the signatures of 75 heads of government. President Suharto personally requested 107 members of the Nonaligned Nations to sign and support the Statement.

At the time of the presentation 40 heads of government signed the Statement, including the following PPD countries: China, India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Nigeria, Philippines, Thailand, Egypt, Korea, Zimbabwe, Tunisia and Jordan.

Last year I was honored to be included in the session inaugurating the PPD book, "Population Trends and Policy Options in Selected Developing Countries." The reports focused on population stabilization for Bangladesh, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, Uganda, Zimbabwe and the state of Bihar in India. We also received, "Population Stabilization: the Case for Pakistan," by Abdul Ghaffar Khan, "People Beyond Numbers: the Road to Population Stabilization in the Philippines, " by Tomas Osias, Lolito Tacardon and Luis Pedroso, "Population Stabilization Policies and Programs in Egypt," by Dr. Osama Refaat, "Population Stabilization: Efforts and Challenges: Case of Yemen," by Mr. Abdul-Malik Sharafuddin and, "Population Stabilization in Uttar Pradesh, India: Past, Present and Future Directions," by Dr. Usha Ram.

Access to primary health, contraceptive services, and striving to achieve the Millennium Development Goals are just a few of the Demographic Dividends. The countries receiving the demographic benefits of close to replacement size families are:

Bangladesh - TFR 2.3 Colombia - TFR 2.3

Mexico - TFR 2.2 South Africa - TFR 2.4

Thailand - TFR 1.6 Tunisia - TFR 2

Vietnam - TFR 2.1 China - TFR 1.5

In India 19 of the 30 States and Union Territories have TFRs below 2.2.

Due in part to decentralization, the TFR in Indonesia has increased from 2.3 to 2.6.

Morocco's TFR has also increased from 2.2 to 2.7 in the last couple of years.

The Demographic Dividend has been achieved where sufficient resources have focused on gender equality, primary, sexual and reproductive health, youth empowerment, preventing child marriages, offering birth spacing and reinforcing the value of each child by eliminating the workforce utility of children and celebrating the birth of a girl as much as a boy.

The FP2020 mandate provides an exciting opportunity for strengthening the South-South cooperation within the framework of the ICPD and Millennium Development Goals. All the PPD countries that have yet to achieve replacement level TFRs are increasing their financial and political commitments.

In Kenya the Population Policy for National

Development has a comprehensive framework

of addressing poverty reduction, environmental

sustainability, equitable productivity, expanding

access to education, achieving gender equality

and extending access to family planning with a

goal of achieving a 75% contraceptive

prevalence by 2050. Because 64% of the

population is below 25, there will be a net increase

of 73% after at TFR of 2.1 is achieved.

Thank you for the opportunity to be here and

focusing on the demographic dividend that will

result when 120 million women and girls are

given access to family planning in the next 6

years.