THEDECISIONBOOKFIFTYMODELSFORSTRATEGICTHINKING

MikaelKrogerusRomanTschaumlppeler

TranslatedbyJennyPieningWITHILLUSTRATIONSBYPHILIPEARNHART

FirstpublishedinGreatBritainin2011byPROFILEBOOKSLTD3AExmouthHouse

PineStreetLondonEC1R0JH

wwwprofilebookscom

FirstpublishedinSwitzerlandbyKeinampAberAGZurich

CopyrightcopyKeinundAber2008

13579108642

PrintedandboundinItalybyLEGOPRINTSpaLavis

Themoralrightoftheauthorhasbeenasserted

AllrightsreservedWithoutlimitingtherightsundercopyrightreservedabovenopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedstoredorintroducedintoaretrievalsystemortransmittedin

anyformorbyanymeans(electronicmechanicalphotocopyingrecordingorotherwise)withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionof

boththecopyrightownerandthepublisherofthisbook

ACIPcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary

ISBN9781846683954eISBN9781847654465

FirstpublishedinGreatBritainin2011byPROFILEBOOKSLTD3AExmouthHouse

PineStreetLondonEC1R0JH

wwwprofilebookscom

FirstpublishedinSwitzerlandbyKeinampAberAGZurich

CopyrightcopyKeinundAber2008

13579108642

PrintedandboundinItalybyLEGOPRINTSpaLavis

Themoralrightoftheauthorhasbeenasserted

AllrightsreservedWithoutlimitingtherightsundercopyrightreservedabovenopartofthispublicationmaybereproducedstoredorintroducedintoaretrievalsystemortransmittedin

anyformorbyanymeans(electronicmechanicalphotocopyingrecordingorotherwise)withoutthepriorwrittenpermissionof

boththecopyrightownerandthepublisherofthisbook

ACIPcataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary

ISBN9781846683954eISBN9781847654465

CONTENTS

Instructionsforuse

HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF

TheEisenhowermatrixHowtoworkmoreefficientlyTheSWOTanalysisHowtofindtherightsolutionTheBCGboxHowtoevaluatecostsandbenefitsTheprojectportfoliomatrixHowtomaintainanoverviewTheJohnWhitmoremodelAmIpursuingtherightgoalTherubberbandmodelHowtodealwithadilemmaThefeedbackmodelDealingwithotherpeoplersquoscomplimentsandcriticismsThefamilytreemodelThecontactsyoushouldmaintainThemorphologicalboxandSCAMPERWhyyouhavetobestructuredtobe

creativeTheEsquiregiftmodelHowmuchtospendongiftsTheconsequencesmodelWhyitisimportanttomakedecisionspromptlyTheconflictresolutionmodelHowtoresolveaconflictelegantlyThecrossroadsmodelSowhatnext

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

TheflowmodelWhatmakesyouhappyTheJohariwindowWhatothersknowaboutyouThe cognitive dissonance modelWhy people smoke when they know itrsquos

unhealthyThemusicmatrixWhatyourtasteinmusicsaysaboutyouTheunimaginablemodelWhatdoyoubelieveinthatyoucannotproveTheUffeElbaeligkmodelHowtogettoknowyourselfThefashionmodelHowwedressTheenergymodelAreyoulivinginthehereandnowTheSuperMemomodelHowtoremembereverythingyouhaveeverlearnedThepoliticalcompassWhatpoliticalpartiesstandfor

The personal performance model How to recognise whether you shouldchangeyourjob

Themaking-ofmodelTodetermineyourfuturefirstunderstandyourpastThepersonalpotentialtrapWhyitisbetternottoexpectanythingThehypecycleHowtoidentifythenextbigthingThesubtlesignalsmodelWhynuancesmatterThenetworktargetmodelWhatyourfriendssayaboutyouThesuperficialknowledgemodelEverythingyoudonrsquotneedtoknow

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

TheSwisscheesemodelHowmistakeshappenTheMaslowpyramidsWhatyouactuallyneedwhatyouactuallywantThinkingoutsidetheboxHowtocomeupwithbrilliantideasTheSinusMilieuandBourdieumodelsWhereyoubelongThedouble-looplearningmodelHowtolearnfromyourmistakesTheAImodelWhatkindofdiscussiontypeareyouThesmall-worldmodelHowsmalltheworldreallyisTheParetoprincipleWhy80percentoftheoutputisachievedwith20per

centoftheinputThelong-tailmodelHowtheinternetistransformingtheeconomyThe Monte Carlo simulationWhy we can only approximate a definitive

outcomeTheblackswanmodelWhyyourexperiencesdonrsquotmakeyouanywiserThechasmndashthediffusionmodelWhyeverybodyhasaniPodTheblackboxmodelWhyfaithisreplacingknowledgeThestatusmodelHowtorecogniseawinnerTheprisonerrsquosdilemmaWhenisitworthtrustingsomeone

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

TheDrexlerndashSibbet team performancemodelHow to turn a group into ateam

TheteammodelIsyourteamuptothejobThegap-in-the-marketmodelHowtorecogniseabankableideaTheHerseyndashBlanchardmodel (situational leadership)How to successfully

manageyouremployeesTherole-playingmodelHowtochangeyourownpointofviewThe result optimisation modelWhy the printer always breaks down just

beforeadeadlineTheworldrsquosnexttopmodel

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DrawinglessonDrawinglessonMymodels

APPENDIX

BibliographyIllustrationcreditsFinalnoteThanksTheauthors

BESTOFTHEBLOGndashEBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER

AhAFriendRequestButWhoTheHellIsBennoBetterNeverThanLateHowWeBecameWhatWeAreStarWarsTheFace-ItBookWhatrsquosTheBestAndWhatrsquosTheRightIdeaInTheLongRun

INSTRUCTIONSFORUSE

WHYYOUSHOULDREADTHISBOOK

Thisbookhasbeenwrittenforanyonewhohas todealwithpeopleonadailybasisWhetheryouareateacheraprofessorapilotoratopmanageryouwillbeconfrontedby thesamequestions timeandagainHowdoImake the rightdecisionHowcan Imotivatemyself ormy teamHowcan I change thingsHowcanIworkmoreefficientlyAndonamorepersonal levelWhatdomyfriendsrevealaboutmeDoIliveinthehereandnowWhatdoIwant

WHATYOUWILLFINDINTHISBOOK

Thefiftybestdecision-makingmodelsndashwell-knownandnotsowell-knownndashthatwillhelpyou tackle thesequestionsaredescribed inwordsanddiagramsDonrsquotexpectstraightanswersbepreparedtobetestedExpectfoodforthoughtYouwillacquirethekindofknowledgewithwhichyoucanimpressfriendsandcolleagues What is a black swan What is a long tail What is the Paretoprinciple Why do we always forget everything How should I behave inconflictsituations

HOWTOUSETHISBOOK

ThisisaworkbookYoucancopyoutthemodelsfillthemincrossthemoutanddevelopandimprovethemWhetheryouneedtoprepareforapresentationor carry out an annual performance review whether a difficult decision liesaheadof youor a prolongeddispute is nowbehindyouwhether youwant toreassessyourbusinessideaorgettoknowyourselfbetterndashthisbookwillguideyou

WHATISADECISION-MAKINGMODEL

Themodelsinthisbookfulfilthefollowingcriteria

bull They simplify they do not embrace every aspect of reality but onlyincludethoseaspectsthatseemrelevant

bullTheyarepragmatictheyfocusonwhatisuseful

bullTheysumuptheyareexecutivesummariesofcomplexinterrelations

bullTheyarevisualthroughimagesanddiagramstheyconveyconceptsthat

aredifficulttoexplaininwords

bullTheyorganisetheyprovidestructureandcreateafilingsystem

bull They aremethods they do not provide answers they ask questionsanswersemergeonceyouhaveusedthemodelsiefilledthemoutandworkedwiththem

Intheappendixyouwillfindthesourcesofthemodelsaswellasreferencestobooks and websites Models for which no source is given there have beendevelopedbytheauthors

WHYDOWENEEDDECISION-MAKINGMODELS

Whenweencounterchaosweseekwaystostructureittoseethroughitoratleast to gain an overview of itModels help us to reduce the complexity of asituation by enabling us to suppress most of it and concentrate on what isimportantCriticsliketopointoutthatmodelsdonotreflectrealityThatistruebutitiswrongtoclaimthattheycompelustothinkinaprescribedwayModelsdo not define what or how we should think they are the result of an activethoughtprocess

Youcan read thisbook in theAmericanor theEuropeanwayAmericans tendtowards a trial-and-error approach they do something fail learn from thisacquiretheoriesandtryagainIf thisapproachsuitsyoustartat thebeginningwithlsquoHowtoimproveyourselfrsquoEuropeanstendtobeginbyacquiringtheoriesthen doing something If they then fail they analyse improve and repeat theattempt If this approach is more your style begin with lsquoHow to understandyourselfbetterrsquo(p45)

Eachmodelisonlyasgoodasthepersonwhousesit

HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF

THEEISENHOWERMATRIX

HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY

The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent

Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions

Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist

BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter

Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith

THESWOTANALYSIS

HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION

With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit

ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather

thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats

What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess

ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley

ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday

THEBCGBOX

HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS

Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment

bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem

bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest

bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision

bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate

Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton

Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare

THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX

HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW

Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo

SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome

Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand

privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress

Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo

HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS

bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision

bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision

bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou

bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot

ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo

Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime

THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL

AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL

If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo

Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel

Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

The personal performance model How to recognise whether you shouldchangeyourjob

Themaking-ofmodelTodetermineyourfuturefirstunderstandyourpastThepersonalpotentialtrapWhyitisbetternottoexpectanythingThehypecycleHowtoidentifythenextbigthingThesubtlesignalsmodelWhynuancesmatterThenetworktargetmodelWhatyourfriendssayaboutyouThesuperficialknowledgemodelEverythingyoudonrsquotneedtoknow

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

TheSwisscheesemodelHowmistakeshappenTheMaslowpyramidsWhatyouactuallyneedwhatyouactuallywantThinkingoutsidetheboxHowtocomeupwithbrilliantideasTheSinusMilieuandBourdieumodelsWhereyoubelongThedouble-looplearningmodelHowtolearnfromyourmistakesTheAImodelWhatkindofdiscussiontypeareyouThesmall-worldmodelHowsmalltheworldreallyisTheParetoprincipleWhy80percentoftheoutputisachievedwith20per

centoftheinputThelong-tailmodelHowtheinternetistransformingtheeconomyThe Monte Carlo simulationWhy we can only approximate a definitive

outcomeTheblackswanmodelWhyyourexperiencesdonrsquotmakeyouanywiserThechasmndashthediffusionmodelWhyeverybodyhasaniPodTheblackboxmodelWhyfaithisreplacingknowledgeThestatusmodelHowtorecogniseawinnerTheprisonerrsquosdilemmaWhenisitworthtrustingsomeone

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

TheDrexlerndashSibbet team performancemodelHow to turn a group into ateam

TheteammodelIsyourteamuptothejobThegap-in-the-marketmodelHowtorecogniseabankableideaTheHerseyndashBlanchardmodel (situational leadership)How to successfully

manageyouremployeesTherole-playingmodelHowtochangeyourownpointofviewThe result optimisation modelWhy the printer always breaks down just

beforeadeadlineTheworldrsquosnexttopmodel

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DrawinglessonDrawinglessonMymodels

APPENDIX

BibliographyIllustrationcreditsFinalnoteThanksTheauthors

BESTOFTHEBLOGndashEBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER

AhAFriendRequestButWhoTheHellIsBennoBetterNeverThanLateHowWeBecameWhatWeAreStarWarsTheFace-ItBookWhatrsquosTheBestAndWhatrsquosTheRightIdeaInTheLongRun

INSTRUCTIONSFORUSE

WHYYOUSHOULDREADTHISBOOK

Thisbookhasbeenwrittenforanyonewhohas todealwithpeopleonadailybasisWhetheryouareateacheraprofessorapilotoratopmanageryouwillbeconfrontedby thesamequestions timeandagainHowdoImake the rightdecisionHowcan Imotivatemyself ormy teamHowcan I change thingsHowcanIworkmoreefficientlyAndonamorepersonal levelWhatdomyfriendsrevealaboutmeDoIliveinthehereandnowWhatdoIwant

WHATYOUWILLFINDINTHISBOOK

Thefiftybestdecision-makingmodelsndashwell-knownandnotsowell-knownndashthatwillhelpyou tackle thesequestionsaredescribed inwordsanddiagramsDonrsquotexpectstraightanswersbepreparedtobetestedExpectfoodforthoughtYouwillacquirethekindofknowledgewithwhichyoucanimpressfriendsandcolleagues What is a black swan What is a long tail What is the Paretoprinciple Why do we always forget everything How should I behave inconflictsituations

HOWTOUSETHISBOOK

ThisisaworkbookYoucancopyoutthemodelsfillthemincrossthemoutanddevelopandimprovethemWhetheryouneedtoprepareforapresentationor carry out an annual performance review whether a difficult decision liesaheadof youor a prolongeddispute is nowbehindyouwhether youwant toreassessyourbusinessideaorgettoknowyourselfbetterndashthisbookwillguideyou

WHATISADECISION-MAKINGMODEL

Themodelsinthisbookfulfilthefollowingcriteria

bull They simplify they do not embrace every aspect of reality but onlyincludethoseaspectsthatseemrelevant

bullTheyarepragmatictheyfocusonwhatisuseful

bullTheysumuptheyareexecutivesummariesofcomplexinterrelations

bullTheyarevisualthroughimagesanddiagramstheyconveyconceptsthat

aredifficulttoexplaininwords

bullTheyorganisetheyprovidestructureandcreateafilingsystem

bull They aremethods they do not provide answers they ask questionsanswersemergeonceyouhaveusedthemodelsiefilledthemoutandworkedwiththem

Intheappendixyouwillfindthesourcesofthemodelsaswellasreferencestobooks and websites Models for which no source is given there have beendevelopedbytheauthors

WHYDOWENEEDDECISION-MAKINGMODELS

Whenweencounterchaosweseekwaystostructureittoseethroughitoratleast to gain an overview of itModels help us to reduce the complexity of asituation by enabling us to suppress most of it and concentrate on what isimportantCriticsliketopointoutthatmodelsdonotreflectrealityThatistruebutitiswrongtoclaimthattheycompelustothinkinaprescribedwayModelsdo not define what or how we should think they are the result of an activethoughtprocess

Youcan read thisbook in theAmericanor theEuropeanwayAmericans tendtowards a trial-and-error approach they do something fail learn from thisacquiretheoriesandtryagainIf thisapproachsuitsyoustartat thebeginningwithlsquoHowtoimproveyourselfrsquoEuropeanstendtobeginbyacquiringtheoriesthen doing something If they then fail they analyse improve and repeat theattempt If this approach is more your style begin with lsquoHow to understandyourselfbetterrsquo(p45)

Eachmodelisonlyasgoodasthepersonwhousesit

HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF

THEEISENHOWERMATRIX

HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY

The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent

Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions

Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist

BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter

Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith

THESWOTANALYSIS

HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION

With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit

ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather

thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats

What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess

ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley

ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday

THEBCGBOX

HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS

Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment

bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem

bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest

bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision

bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate

Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton

Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare

THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX

HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW

Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo

SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome

Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand

privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress

Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo

HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS

bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision

bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision

bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou

bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot

ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo

Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime

THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL

AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL

If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo

Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel

Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

beforeadeadlineTheworldrsquosnexttopmodel

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DrawinglessonDrawinglessonMymodels

APPENDIX

BibliographyIllustrationcreditsFinalnoteThanksTheauthors

BESTOFTHEBLOGndashEBOOKADDITIONALCHAPTER

AhAFriendRequestButWhoTheHellIsBennoBetterNeverThanLateHowWeBecameWhatWeAreStarWarsTheFace-ItBookWhatrsquosTheBestAndWhatrsquosTheRightIdeaInTheLongRun

INSTRUCTIONSFORUSE

WHYYOUSHOULDREADTHISBOOK

Thisbookhasbeenwrittenforanyonewhohas todealwithpeopleonadailybasisWhetheryouareateacheraprofessorapilotoratopmanageryouwillbeconfrontedby thesamequestions timeandagainHowdoImake the rightdecisionHowcan Imotivatemyself ormy teamHowcan I change thingsHowcanIworkmoreefficientlyAndonamorepersonal levelWhatdomyfriendsrevealaboutmeDoIliveinthehereandnowWhatdoIwant

WHATYOUWILLFINDINTHISBOOK

Thefiftybestdecision-makingmodelsndashwell-knownandnotsowell-knownndashthatwillhelpyou tackle thesequestionsaredescribed inwordsanddiagramsDonrsquotexpectstraightanswersbepreparedtobetestedExpectfoodforthoughtYouwillacquirethekindofknowledgewithwhichyoucanimpressfriendsandcolleagues What is a black swan What is a long tail What is the Paretoprinciple Why do we always forget everything How should I behave inconflictsituations

HOWTOUSETHISBOOK

ThisisaworkbookYoucancopyoutthemodelsfillthemincrossthemoutanddevelopandimprovethemWhetheryouneedtoprepareforapresentationor carry out an annual performance review whether a difficult decision liesaheadof youor a prolongeddispute is nowbehindyouwhether youwant toreassessyourbusinessideaorgettoknowyourselfbetterndashthisbookwillguideyou

WHATISADECISION-MAKINGMODEL

Themodelsinthisbookfulfilthefollowingcriteria

bull They simplify they do not embrace every aspect of reality but onlyincludethoseaspectsthatseemrelevant

bullTheyarepragmatictheyfocusonwhatisuseful

bullTheysumuptheyareexecutivesummariesofcomplexinterrelations

bullTheyarevisualthroughimagesanddiagramstheyconveyconceptsthat

aredifficulttoexplaininwords

bullTheyorganisetheyprovidestructureandcreateafilingsystem

bull They aremethods they do not provide answers they ask questionsanswersemergeonceyouhaveusedthemodelsiefilledthemoutandworkedwiththem

Intheappendixyouwillfindthesourcesofthemodelsaswellasreferencestobooks and websites Models for which no source is given there have beendevelopedbytheauthors

WHYDOWENEEDDECISION-MAKINGMODELS

Whenweencounterchaosweseekwaystostructureittoseethroughitoratleast to gain an overview of itModels help us to reduce the complexity of asituation by enabling us to suppress most of it and concentrate on what isimportantCriticsliketopointoutthatmodelsdonotreflectrealityThatistruebutitiswrongtoclaimthattheycompelustothinkinaprescribedwayModelsdo not define what or how we should think they are the result of an activethoughtprocess

Youcan read thisbook in theAmericanor theEuropeanwayAmericans tendtowards a trial-and-error approach they do something fail learn from thisacquiretheoriesandtryagainIf thisapproachsuitsyoustartat thebeginningwithlsquoHowtoimproveyourselfrsquoEuropeanstendtobeginbyacquiringtheoriesthen doing something If they then fail they analyse improve and repeat theattempt If this approach is more your style begin with lsquoHow to understandyourselfbetterrsquo(p45)

Eachmodelisonlyasgoodasthepersonwhousesit

HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF

THEEISENHOWERMATRIX

HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY

The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent

Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions

Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist

BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter

Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith

THESWOTANALYSIS

HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION

With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit

ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather

thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats

What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess

ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley

ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday

THEBCGBOX

HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS

Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment

bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem

bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest

bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision

bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate

Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton

Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare

THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX

HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW

Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo

SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome

Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand

privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress

Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo

HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS

bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision

bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision

bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou

bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot

ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo

Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime

THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL

AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL

If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo

Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel

Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

WHATYOUWILLFINDINTHISBOOK

Thefiftybestdecision-makingmodelsndashwell-knownandnotsowell-knownndashthatwillhelpyou tackle thesequestionsaredescribed inwordsanddiagramsDonrsquotexpectstraightanswersbepreparedtobetestedExpectfoodforthoughtYouwillacquirethekindofknowledgewithwhichyoucanimpressfriendsandcolleagues What is a black swan What is a long tail What is the Paretoprinciple Why do we always forget everything How should I behave inconflictsituations

HOWTOUSETHISBOOK

ThisisaworkbookYoucancopyoutthemodelsfillthemincrossthemoutanddevelopandimprovethemWhetheryouneedtoprepareforapresentationor carry out an annual performance review whether a difficult decision liesaheadof youor a prolongeddispute is nowbehindyouwhether youwant toreassessyourbusinessideaorgettoknowyourselfbetterndashthisbookwillguideyou

WHATISADECISION-MAKINGMODEL

Themodelsinthisbookfulfilthefollowingcriteria

bull They simplify they do not embrace every aspect of reality but onlyincludethoseaspectsthatseemrelevant

bullTheyarepragmatictheyfocusonwhatisuseful

bullTheysumuptheyareexecutivesummariesofcomplexinterrelations

bullTheyarevisualthroughimagesanddiagramstheyconveyconceptsthat

aredifficulttoexplaininwords

bullTheyorganisetheyprovidestructureandcreateafilingsystem

bull They aremethods they do not provide answers they ask questionsanswersemergeonceyouhaveusedthemodelsiefilledthemoutandworkedwiththem

Intheappendixyouwillfindthesourcesofthemodelsaswellasreferencestobooks and websites Models for which no source is given there have beendevelopedbytheauthors

WHYDOWENEEDDECISION-MAKINGMODELS

Whenweencounterchaosweseekwaystostructureittoseethroughitoratleast to gain an overview of itModels help us to reduce the complexity of asituation by enabling us to suppress most of it and concentrate on what isimportantCriticsliketopointoutthatmodelsdonotreflectrealityThatistruebutitiswrongtoclaimthattheycompelustothinkinaprescribedwayModelsdo not define what or how we should think they are the result of an activethoughtprocess

Youcan read thisbook in theAmericanor theEuropeanwayAmericans tendtowards a trial-and-error approach they do something fail learn from thisacquiretheoriesandtryagainIf thisapproachsuitsyoustartat thebeginningwithlsquoHowtoimproveyourselfrsquoEuropeanstendtobeginbyacquiringtheoriesthen doing something If they then fail they analyse improve and repeat theattempt If this approach is more your style begin with lsquoHow to understandyourselfbetterrsquo(p45)

Eachmodelisonlyasgoodasthepersonwhousesit

HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF

THEEISENHOWERMATRIX

HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY

The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent

Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions

Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist

BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter

Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith

THESWOTANALYSIS

HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION

With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit

ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather

thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats

What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess

ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley

ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday

THEBCGBOX

HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS

Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment

bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem

bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest

bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision

bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate

Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton

Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare

THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX

HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW

Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo

SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome

Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand

privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress

Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo

HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS

bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision

bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision

bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou

bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot

ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo

Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime

THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL

AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL

If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo

Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel

Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

aredifficulttoexplaininwords

bullTheyorganisetheyprovidestructureandcreateafilingsystem

bull They aremethods they do not provide answers they ask questionsanswersemergeonceyouhaveusedthemodelsiefilledthemoutandworkedwiththem

Intheappendixyouwillfindthesourcesofthemodelsaswellasreferencestobooks and websites Models for which no source is given there have beendevelopedbytheauthors

WHYDOWENEEDDECISION-MAKINGMODELS

Whenweencounterchaosweseekwaystostructureittoseethroughitoratleast to gain an overview of itModels help us to reduce the complexity of asituation by enabling us to suppress most of it and concentrate on what isimportantCriticsliketopointoutthatmodelsdonotreflectrealityThatistruebutitiswrongtoclaimthattheycompelustothinkinaprescribedwayModelsdo not define what or how we should think they are the result of an activethoughtprocess

Youcan read thisbook in theAmericanor theEuropeanwayAmericans tendtowards a trial-and-error approach they do something fail learn from thisacquiretheoriesandtryagainIf thisapproachsuitsyoustartat thebeginningwithlsquoHowtoimproveyourselfrsquoEuropeanstendtobeginbyacquiringtheoriesthen doing something If they then fail they analyse improve and repeat theattempt If this approach is more your style begin with lsquoHow to understandyourselfbetterrsquo(p45)

Eachmodelisonlyasgoodasthepersonwhousesit

HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF

THEEISENHOWERMATRIX

HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY

The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent

Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions

Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist

BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter

Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith

THESWOTANALYSIS

HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION

With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit

ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather

thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats

What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess

ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley

ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday

THEBCGBOX

HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS

Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment

bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem

bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest

bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision

bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate

Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton

Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare

THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX

HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW

Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo

SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome

Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand

privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress

Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo

HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS

bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision

bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision

bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou

bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot

ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo

Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime

THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL

AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL

If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo

Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel

Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

HOWTOIMPROVEYOURSELF

THEEISENHOWERMATRIX

HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY

The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent

Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions

Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist

BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter

Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith

THESWOTANALYSIS

HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION

With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit

ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather

thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats

What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess

ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley

ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday

THEBCGBOX

HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS

Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment

bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem

bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest

bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision

bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate

Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton

Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare

THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX

HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW

Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo

SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome

Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand

privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress

Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo

HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS

bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision

bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision

bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou

bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot

ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo

Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime

THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL

AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL

If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo

Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel

Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

THEEISENHOWERMATRIX

HOWTOWORKMOREEFFICIENTLY

The US President Dwight D Eisenhower supposedly once said lsquoThe mosturgentdecisionsarerarelythemostimportantonesrsquoEisenhowerwasconsideredamaster of timemanagement ie he had the ability to do everything as andwhen it needed to be done With the Eisenhower method you will learn todistinguishbetweenwhatisimportantandwhatisurgent

Whateverthejobthatlandsonyourdeskbeginbybreakingitdownaccordingto the Eisenhower method (see model) and then decide how to proceedWeoften focus too stronglyon the lsquourgent and importantrsquo field on the things thathave to be dealt with immediately Ask yourself When will I deal with thethingsthatareimportantbutnoturgentWhenwillItakethetimetodealwithimportanttasksbeforetheybecomeurgentThisisthefieldforstrategiclong-termdecisions

Another method of organising your time better is attributed to themultimillionaireWarrenBuffettMakealistofeverythingyouwanttogetdonetodayBeginwiththetaskatthetopofthelistandcontinueonlywhenyouhavecompleteditWhenataskhasbeencompletedcrossitoffthelist

BetterlatethanneverButneverlateisbetter

Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith

THESWOTANALYSIS

HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION

With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit

ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather

thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats

What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess

ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley

ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday

THEBCGBOX

HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS

Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment

bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem

bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest

bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision

bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate

Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton

Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare

THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX

HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW

Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo

SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome

Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand

privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress

Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo

HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS

bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision

bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision

bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou

bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot

ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo

Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime

THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL

AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL

If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo

Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel

Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

Fillinthetasksyoucurrentlyhavetodealwith

THESWOTANALYSIS

HOWTOFINDTHERIGHTSOLUTION

With SWOT analysis you evaluate the Strengths Weaknesses Opportunitiesand Threats identified in a project The technique is based on a StanfordUniversity study from the 1960s which analysed data from Fortune 500companiesThestudyfounda35percentdiscrepancybetweenthecompaniesrsquoobjectives andwhatwas actually implemented The problemwas not that theemployeeswereincompetentbutthattheobjectivesweretooambiguousManyemployeesdidnrsquotevenknowwhytheyweredoingwhattheyweredoingSWOTwasdevelopedfromtheresultsofthestudytohelpthoseinvolvedinaprojecttogainaclearerunderstandingofit

ItisworthtakingthetimetothinkabouteachstepoftheSWOTanalysisrather

thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats

What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess

ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley

ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday

THEBCGBOX

HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS

Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment

bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem

bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest

bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision

bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate

Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton

Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare

THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX

HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW

Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo

SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome

Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand

privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress

Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo

HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS

bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision

bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision

bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou

bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot

ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo

Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime

THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL

AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL

If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo

Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel

Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

thanjusthastilyfillitoutHowcanweemphasiseourstrengthsandcompensatefor (or coverup)ourweaknessesHowcanwemaximiseopportunitiesHowcanweprotectourselvesagainstthreats

What is interestingaboutSWOTanalysis is itsversatility it canbeapplied tobusinessandpersonaldecisionswithequalsuccess

ThethingswefearmostinorganisationsndashfluctuationsdisturbancesimbalancesndasharetheprimarysourcesofcreativityMargaretJWheatley

ThinkbacktoabigprojectinyourlifeandabouthowyouwouldhavefilledinSWOTdiagramatthetimeComparethatwithhowyouwouldfillitintoday

THEBCGBOX

HOWTOEVALUATECOSTSANDBENEFITS

Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment

bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem

bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest

bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision

bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate

Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton

Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare

THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX

HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW

Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo

SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome

Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand

privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress

Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo

HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS

bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision

bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision

bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou

bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot

ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo

Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime

THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL

AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL

If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo

Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel

Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

Inthe1970stheBostonConsultingGroupdevelopedamethodforassessingthevalue of the investments in a companyrsquos portfolio The four-field matrixdistinguishesbetweenfourdifferenttypesofinvestment

bullCashcowshaveahighmarketsharebuta lowgrowthrateThismeanstheydonrsquotcostmuchbutpromisehighreturnsConsultantsrsquoverdictmilkthem

bull Stars have a high market share and a high growth rate But growthdevours money The hope is that the stars will turn into cash cowsConsultantsrsquoverdictinvest

bullQuestionmarksorlsquoproblemchildrenrsquohavehighgrowthpotentialbutalowshareofthemarketWithalotof(financial)supportandcajolementtheycanbeturnedintostarsConsultantsrsquoverdictatoughdecision

bullDogs are business units with a low share in a saturated market Dogsshouldbeheldontoonlyiftheyhaveavalueotherthanafinancialone(eg a vanity project or favour for a friend) Consultantsrsquo verdictliquidate

Themost dangerouswords in investing are lsquothis time itrsquos differentrsquo Sir JohnTempleton

Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare

THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX

HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW

Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo

SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome

Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand

privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress

Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo

HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS

bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision

bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision

bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou

bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot

ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo

Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime

THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL

AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL

If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo

Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel

Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

Arrangeyour financialproducts investmentsorprojects in thematrixTheaxesindicategrowthpotentialandmarketshare

THEPROJECTPORTFOLIOMATRIX

HOWTOMAINTAINANOVERVIEW

Areyou jugglingseveralprojectssimultaneouslyThenyouarea lsquoslasherrsquo ()The termwas coined by theNewYork authorMarciAlboher and describes agrowingnumberofpeoplewhocannotgiveasingleanswertothequestionlsquoAndwhatdoyoudoforalivingrsquo

SupposeyouareateachermusicianwebdesignerThevarietymaybeappealingbuthowcanyoubalanceall theseprojectsAndhowdoyouensurea regularincome

Togetanoverviewyoucanclassifyyourcurrentprojectsbothwork-relatedand

privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress

Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo

HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS

bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision

bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision

bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou

bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot

ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo

Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime

THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL

AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL

If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo

Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel

Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

privatewiththehelpoftheprojectportfoliomatrixaccordingtocostandtime(seemodel) Think of costs not only in terms of money but also in terms ofresourcessuchasfriendsinvolvedenergyandpsychologicalstress

Cost and time are just two examples You can use whatever parameters arerelevant to your situation for example the x-axis could be lsquoHow much myproject is helping me achieve my overriding objectiversquo and the y-axis lsquoHowmuchIamlearningfromthisprojectrsquoNowpositionyourprojectsinthematrixinrelationtothetwoaxeslsquoobjectivesachievedrsquoandlsquoamountlearnedrsquo

HOWTOINTERPRETTHERESULTS

bullRejectprojectsifthereisnothingyoucanlearnfromthemandiftheydonotcorrespondtoyouroverridingvision

bullProjectsthatyoucanlearnfrombutdonotcorrespondtoyourvisionareinterestingbutwill not helpyou achieveyourobjectiveTry to changetheprojectsothatitservesyourvision

bullIfaprojectcorrespondstoyourvisionbutyouarelearningnothingnewlookforsomebodyelsetodoitforyou

bullIfyouarelearningsomethingandachievingyourvisionyouhavehitthejackpot

ThegreatestdangerformostofusisnotthatouraimistoohighandwemissitbutthatitistoolowandwereachitMichelangelo

Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime

THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL

AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL

If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo

Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel

Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

Arrangeyourcurrentprojectsinthematrixareyouonbudgetandontime

THEJOHNWHITMOREMODEL

AMIPURSUINGTHERIGHTGOAL

If you set yourself goals you should distinguish between final goals andperformance goals A final goal might be lsquoI want to run a marathonrsquo aperformancegoalhelpsyouachievethisaimforexamplelsquoIwillgojoggingforthirtyminuteseverymorningrsquo

Write down your goal on paper and check step by stepwhether it correlateswiththefourteenrequirementsinthemodel

Afewthingstonote ifagoal isunattainable thereisnohopeandif it isnot

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

challengingitwillnotmotivateyouIfthefourteenstepsaretoocomplicatedforyoukeepinmindthefollowinggroundrulewhenestablishingyourgoal

KISSndashKeepItSimpleStupid

EverythingshouldbemadeassimpleaspossibleButnosimplerAlbertEinstein

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)

Once you have established a goal check whether it correlates with thesefourteenrequirements

THERUBBERBANDMODEL

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

HOWTODEALWITHADILEMMA

Is this a situationyouare familiarwithA friend colleagueor clientneeds tomakeadecisionthatcouldirrevocablyaltertheirfutureforexampletochangecareer move to another city or take early retirement The arguments for andagainstareevenlybalancedHowcanyouhelpthemoutoftheirdilemma

CopyouttherubberbandmodelandaskthepersontoaskthemselvesWhatisholdingmeWhatispullingme

At first glance themethod seems to be a simple variation of the conventionalquestionlsquoWhatare theprosandconsrsquoThedifference is that lsquoWhat isholdingmersquoandlsquoWhatispullingmersquoarepositivequestionsandreflectasituationwithtwoattractivealternatives

ApeacefulnessfollowsanydecisioneventhewrongoneRitaMaeBrown

rarrSeealsoSWOTanalysis(p12)

Ifyouhavetodecidebetweentwogoodoptionsaskyourselfwhatisholding

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

youandwhatispullingyou

THEFEEDBACKMODEL

DEALING WITH OTHER PEOPLErsquoS COMPLIMENTS ANDCRITICISMS

FeedbackisoneofthemostdifficultandsensitiveprocessesingroupsItiseasyto hurt people with criticism but false compliments are also unhelpfulComplimentsoftenmakeus toocomplacentwhilecriticismdamagesourself-esteemandcanleadustomakeunwisechoices

Theone-dimensionalquestionlsquoWhatdidyoufindgoodwhatdidyoufindbadrsquois therefore not necessarily helpful In terms of what can be learned fromfeedbackitisbettertoaskyourselflsquoWhatcanIdowiththiscriticismrsquoInotherwordsseewhatcanstayasitisandwhatneedstochange(butmayhavebeengooduptillnow)

Itisnotonlyaboutestablishingwhathasnotsucceededitisalsoaboutdecidingwhetherandhow to reactThemodelwillhelpyou tocategorise the feedbackyoureceiveinordertoclearlyestablishaplanofaction

It is also important to askyourself honestly lsquoWhich success or failurewas infactduetoluckrsquoWereyouthewinnerofamatchbecausetheballfounditswayintothenetpurelybychanceDoyoureallydeservethiscompliment

Payattentiontoyourthoughtsbecausetheybecomewords

Payattentiontoyourwordsbecausetheybecomeactions

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

Payattentiontoyouractionsbecausetheybecomehabits

PayattentiontoyourhabitsbecausetheybecomeyourcharacterPayattentiontoyourcharacterbecauseitisyourfate

FromtheTalmud

ArrangethefeedbackyouhavereceivedinthematrixWhatadvicedoyouwanttofollowWhichcriticismspromptyoutotakeactionWhichsuggestionscanyouignore

THEFAMILYTREEMODEL

THECONTACTSYOUSHOULDMAINTAIN

This model is based on the premise that humans are fundamentally socialinteractivebeingsBrandloyaltycanbeunderstoodasapersonrsquosattachmenttoa

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

brandor product and that personrsquos desire to tell others about itConventionalmodels for determining brand loyalty often serve as a justification of (oftenimprudent)expenditureorofdecisionsthathavealreadybeenmaderatherthanasanobjectiveevaluationofstrategies

AsimplerandmoreconstructivestartingpointfordeterminingbrandloyaltyistofindoutwhatyourcustomersthinkaboutyourproductInsteadofacomplexquestionnaire in this model the customer is asked a single question lsquoWhorecommendedthisproducttoyouandwhowouldyourecommendittorsquoThreegroupsofrespondentscanbedefinedbasedontheanswerspromoterspassivesatisfiedcustomersandcriticsTheratioofpromoterstocriticsisthebarometerofsuccess

DrawaclientorportfoliostructureintheshapeofafamilytreeNowyouwillseehoworthroughwhomaclientbecameaclient

HELPWITHINTERPRETATION

The more family trees you have to draw the more diverse your customerstructure or portfolio Boughs withmore branches require moremaintenanceTheyrepresentariskofover-concentrationandcaneasilybreak

You donrsquot have customers Then think about how your circle of friends andacquaintancesisstructuredThroughwhomdidyoumeetmostofyourfriendsAreyoustillfriendswiththisperson

rarrSeealsoNetworktargetmodel(p80)

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml

Draw the family treeofyour friends andacquaintances throughwhomdoyouknowyour friendsOr draw the tree of your clients throughwhomhaveyoureachedmostofyourcustomers

THEMORPHOLOGICALBOXANDSCAMPER

WHYYOUHAVETOBESTRUCTUREDTOBECREATIVE

Innovation can mean doing something completely new but it can also meanmakinganewcombinationofthingsthatalreadyexistButhowisthisachieved

The concept ofmorphology stems from the study of biological structures andconfigurationsInthe1930stheSwissphysicistFritzZwickyattheInstituteofTechnology in California developed a problem-solvingmethod using what hecalledmorphologicalboxes inwhichanewentity isdevelopedbycombiningtheattributesofavarietyofexistingentitiesThismethodwhichwas initiallyappliedbyZwickytojetenginetechnologyalsobegantobeusedinmarketingstrategiesandthedevelopmentofnewideas

HOWITWORKS

Forthedevelopmentofanewcarforexamplealltherelevantparameters(egvehicle type target group) are noted and as many attributes as possible areascribedtoeachparameterThisrequiresexpertiseaswellasimaginationastheaimistocreatesomethingnewoutofsomethingthatalreadyexistsTheresultinthiscaseisatwo-dimensionaltable(althoughamorphologicalboxcanhaveuptofourdimensions)

ThenextstagerequiresbrainstormingthecarhastobeanSUVsaybutitalsoneeds to be energy-efficient and inexpensive tomanufactureWhich attributesmatchtheserequirementsConnectyourchosenattributeswithalineThisnewconfigurationofattributescanformthebasisforanevaluationofyourdesiredcar Besides the morphological boxes the SCAMPER checklist developed byBobEberlewill also help you to reconfigure an existing idea or productThefollowing seven key questions are drawn from a questionnaire developed byAlexOsbornfounderoftheadvertisingagencyBBDO

bullSubstituteSubstitutepeoplecomponentsmaterials

bullCombineCombinewithotherfunctionsorthings

bullAdaptAdaptfunctionsorvisualappearance

bullModifyModifythesizeshapetextureoracoustics

bullPuttootheruseOthernewcombineduses

bullEliminateReducesimplifyeliminateanythingsuperfluous

bullReverseUseconverselyinvertreverse

The task is not somuch to see what no one has yet seen but to think whatnobodyyethasthoughtaboutthatwhicheverybodyseesArthurSchopenhauer

rarrSeealsoThinkingoutsidethebox(p92)

THEESQUIREGIFTMODEL

HOWMUCHTOSPENDONGIFTS

Gift-givingissomethingofaminefieldAcheaporimpersonalgiftcanmaketherecipient feelundervaluedandcreateanawkwardsituation forbothgiverandreceiverThislittlemodelfromEsquiremagazinehastwoaxes

bullHowlonghaveyouknownthepersontowhomyouaregivingthegift

bullHowmuchmoneyshouldyouspendonthegift

TWORULESOFTHUMB

Beinggenerousbeatsbeingmiserly(donrsquotbemisledbythesentencelsquoThatreallywasnrsquotnecessaryrsquo)

Buysomethingthatyouwouldbepleasedtoreceiveasagiftyourself

IhavethesimplesttastesIamalwayssatisfiedwiththebest

OscarWilde

ThemodelshowswhichpeopleyoushouldgivegiftstowhenandtowhatvalueWhatisthemostvaluablegiftyouhaveevergivenndashandreceived

THECONSEQUENCESMODEL

WHYITISIMPORTANTTOMAKEDECISIONSPROMPTLY

We are often forced to make decisions based on limited or ambiguousinformationAt thebeginningofaproject forexamplewhen the finerdetailshaveyettobeclarifiedweneedtobeboldinourdecision-makingndashparticularlybecausetheseearlydecisionshavethemostfar-reachingconsequencesTowardstheendofaprojectweknowmoreandhavefewerdoubtsbutbythenthereisnolongeranythingfundamentaltodecide

Themost important question then is howwe can bridge the chasm betweendoubtanddecision

BewareWe often defer decisions becausewe have doubtsBut notmaking adecisionisadecisioninitselfIfyoudelayaresolutionitisoftenanunconsciousdecisiononethatyoudonotcommunicateThisleadstouncertaintyinateamSoifyouwanttomakeadecisionlaterbesuretocommunicatethisclearly

With thismodel theDanish organisation theoristsKristianKreiner and SoslashrenChristensen encourage us to be courageous and make decisions based onminimalinformation

IrsquodratherregretthethingsIhavedonethanthethingsthatIhavenrsquotLucilleBall

rarrSeealsoEisenhowermatrix(p10)

The model shows how the extent of the consequences of your decisionsrelatestotheextentofyourknowledge

THECONFLICTRESOLUTIONMODEL

HOWTORESOLVEACONFLICTELEGANTLY

Psychologists agree that conflicts have to be dealt with in order to preventdeadlock and recrimination and restore stability and communication Thequestion is how In principle there are six different ways of dealing with aconflict situation escape fight give up evade responsibility compromise orreachaconsensus

1EscapeEscapingisthesameasavoidingTheconflictisnotdealtwithand the situation remains the same It canbeassumed thatneither sidewillgainanythingThisisalosendashlosesituation

2FightThosewhodealwithaconflictaggressivelyhaveonlyoneaimto

winButwinningaloneisnotenoughassomebodyalsohastoloseThisapproach is about conquering the opponent and asserting onersquos ownposition in the face of resistance from others The result is awinndashlosesituation

3GiveupThosewhogiveuptheirownpositioninaconflictsolveitbyretreatingietheyloseTheresultisalosendashwinsituation

4EvaderesponsibilityThosewhofeeloverwhelmedbyaconflictoftendelegate the decision ndash and thus also the confrontation ndash to anotherauthority usually a higher one This authority solves the conflict forthem but not necessarilywisely and not necessarily in the delegatorrsquosinterestThereisariskthatthepartiesonbothsidesoftheconflictwilllose(losendashlosesituation)

5Compromise Depending on how it is perceived a compromise is asolution acceptable to both parties It is often felt that although thesolutionisnrsquotidealitisreasonableinthecircumstances(winndashlosewinndashlose)

6Reach a consensus A consensus is based on a new solution that hasbeendevelopedbybothpartiesIncontrasttoacompromiseitisawinndashwinsituationforbothpartiesbecausenobodyhastobackdownInsteadbothpartiesdevelopalsquothirdwayrsquotogether

Our failures are due not to the defeatswe suffer but to the conflictswe donrsquotparticipatein

GraffitionayouthcentreinBernSwitzerland

ThismodelshowsthesixtypicalreactionstoaconflictWhatconflicttypeareyouWhattypeisyouradversary

THECROSSROADSMODEL

SOWHATNEXT

Weallhavetimesinourliveswhenwefindourselvesatacrossroadsandaskourselves where now The crossroads model is inspired by The PersonalCompassdevelopedbySanFranciscoconsultingagencyTheGroveandhelpsyoutofindyourdirectioninlifeFillinthemodelonthebasisofthefollowingquestions

WHEREHAVEYOUCOMEFROM

HowhaveyoubecomewhoyouareWhathavebeenthemaindecisionseventsandobstaclesinyourlifeandwhowereyourmaininfluencesThinkaboutyour

educationyourhomewhereyougrewupAndmakeanoteofkeywords thatstrikeyouasimportant

WHATISREALLYIMPORTANTTOYOU

WritedownthefirstthreethingsthatcomeintoyourheadYoudonrsquothavetogointodetailorbespecificWhatareyourvaluesWhatdoyoubelieveinWhichprinciplesareimportanttoyouWheneverythingfailswhatremains

WHICHPEOPLEAREIMPORTANTTOYOU

HereyoushouldthinkofpeoplewhoseopinionsyouvalueandwhoinfluenceyourdecisionsaswellasthosewhoareaffectedbyyourdecisionsThinkalsoaboutthepeopleyoulikeandthoseyoufear

WHATISHINDERINGYOU

WhataspectsofyourlifepreventyoufromthinkingaboutthereallyimportantthingsWhichdeadlinesdoyouhaveinyourheadandwhatishinderingyouWhatdoyouhavetodoandwhen

WHATAREYOUAFRAIDOF

List the things circumstances or people that cause youworry and rob you ofyourstrength

LookatyournotesWhatrsquosmissingWhatissueshavearisenDothekeywordsyoursquovewrittendown tell the storyof howyoubecamewhoyou are today IfnecessaryjotdownmorekeywordsandquestionsNowlookattheroadsthatlieaheadofyouWehavegivensixexamplesImagineeachone

1Theroadthatbeckonsndashwhathaveyoualwayswantedtotry

2TheroadthatIimagineinmywildestdreamsregardlessofwhetheritisachievableornotndashwhatdoyoudreamof

3 The road that seems most sensible to me the one that people whoseopinionIvaluewouldsuggesttome

4Theroadnottravelledndashoneyouhaveneverconsideredbefore

5TheroadIhavealreadybeendown

6Theroadbacktoaplaceyouoncefeltsafe

Youdecide

Whenwasthelasttimeyoudidsomethingforthefirsttime

Answer the questions by yourself or together with a good friend Thenimaginetheroadthatyoucouldtake

HOWTOUNDERSTANDYOURSELFBETTER

THEFLOWMODEL

WHATMAKESYOUHAPPY

OvertwothousandyearsagoAristotlecametotheunsurprisingconclusionthatwhat a person wants above all is to be happy In 1961 the US psychologistMihaly Csikszentmihalyi wrote lsquoWhile happiness itself is sought for its ownsakeeveryothergoalndashhealthbeautymoneyorpowerndashisvaluedonlybecauseweexpect that itwillmakeushappyrsquoCsikszentmihalyi lookedfora termthatdescribedthestateoffeelinghappyHecalleditlsquoflowrsquoButwhenarewelsquointheflowrsquo

After interviewing over a thousand people about what made them happy hefound that all the responses had five things in commonHappiness or lsquoflowrsquooccurswhenweare

bullintenselyfocusedonanactivity

bullofourownchoosingthatis

bull neither under-challenging (boreout) nor over-challenging (burnout) thathas

bullaclearobjectiveandthatreceives

bullimmediatefeedback

Csikszentmihalyi discovered that peoplewho are lsquoin the flowrsquo not only feel a

profoundsenseofsatisfactiontheyalsolosetrackoftimeandforgetthemselvescompletely because they are so immersed in what they are doingMusiciansathletesactorsdoctorsandartistsdescribehowtheyarehappiestwhentheyareabsorbed in an often exhausting activity ndash totally contradicting the commonlyheldviewthathappinesshastodowithrelaxation

Whatispreventingyoufrombeinghappy

Themodel has two axes the level of the challenge and the level of yourabilitiesOnthegraphwritedownthelastthreechallengesyouhavefacedandhowyoufeltaboutthem

THEJOHARIWINDOW

WHATOTHERSKNOWABOUTYOU

Wecannotlsquograsprsquoourownpersonalitybutwecanbeawareofwhatpartofourpersonality we reveal to the outside world The Johari window (lsquoJoharirsquo is

derived from the first syllablesof the first namesof its inventors JosephLuftandHarryIngham)isoneofthemostinterestingmodelsfordescribinghumaninteraction A four-paned lsquowindowrsquo divides personal awareness into fourdifferenttypes

A This quadrant describes characteristics and experiences that we areawareofourselvesandthatweliketotellothersabout

B This lsquohiddenrsquo quadrant describes things thatwe know about ourselvesbutchoosenotrevealtoothersItdecreasesinsizethemorewebuildupatrustingrelationshipwithothers

CTherearethingsthatwedonotknowaboutourselvesbutthatotherscanseeclearlyAndtherearethingsthatwethinkweareexpressingclearlybut which others interpret completely differently In this quadrantfeedbackcanbeenlighteningbutalsohurtful

DThereareaspectsofourselvesthatarehiddenfromourselvesaswellasothersWearemorecomplexandmultifacetedthanwethinkFromtimetotimesomethingunknownrisestothesurfacefromourunconsciousndashforexampleinadream

Chooseadjectives(fununreliableetc)thatyouthinkdescribeyouwellThenletothers(friendscolleagues)chooseadjectivestodescribeyouTheadjectivesarethenenteredintheappropriatepanesofthewindow

TrythisexercisewithyourpartnerAretherethingsaboutyourpartnerthatyouwishedyouhadneverdiscoveredAndwhatdoyouwishyoudidnrsquotknowaboutyourself

Whatdoothersknowaboutyou thatyoudonrsquotknowyourselfThe Johariwindowprovidesamodelofpersonalawareness

THECOGNITIVEDISSONANCEMODEL

WHY PEOPLE SMOKE WHEN THEY KNOW ITrsquoSUNHEALTHY

There isoftenabiggapbetweenwhatwe thinkandwhatwedowhenwedosomething despite knowing it to be immoralwrong or stupidwe have a badconscience The psychologist Leon Festinger used the term lsquocognitivedissonancersquo to describe our state ofmindwhen our actions are not consistentwithourbeliefsndashforexamplewhenwesmackachildeventhoughwecondemnviolenceagainstchildren

ButwhydowefinditsodifficulttorecogniseourmistakesWhydoweevengoasfarasdefendingouractionswhenweareconfrontedwiththeirshortcomings

Rather than asking for forgivenesswe embark on one of themore unlikeablehuman attributes self-justification This acts as a protective mechanism thatenablesustosleepatnightandfreesusfromself-doubtWeseeonlywhatwewant to see and ignore everything that contradicts our view We look forargumentsthatreinforceourposition

ButhowcanweovercomethisdissonanceEitherbychangingourbehaviourorourattitude

A great nation is like a great man when he makes a mistake he realises itHavingrealiseditheadmitsitHavingadmittedithecorrectsitHeconsidersthosewhopointouthisfaultsashismostbenevolentteachersLaoZi

WhenwereyoulastawareofacognitivedissonanceinyourselfAndwheninyourpartner

THEMUSICMATRIX

WHATYOURTASTEINMUSICSAYSABOUTYOU

Insertyourfavouritebandsinthematrix

THEUNIMAGINABLEMODEL

WHATDOYOUBELIEVEINTHATYOUCANNOTPROVE

Modelsexplainhoweverything isconnectedhowweshouldactandwhatweshouldandshouldnotdoButdo theypreventus fromseeing things forwhattheyreallyare

As early as the eighteenth centuryAdamSmithwarned against being carriedaway by a love of abstract systems and two centuries later Albert Einsteinreceived a Nobel Prize for recognising that models and lsquologicalrsquo systems areultimately amatter of faith The historian of science and philosopher ThomasKuhnargued that scienceusually justworks towardscorroborating itsmodelsand reacts with ignorance when ndash as is often the case ndash the models do notcorrespondtorealityThisinsightmaynothaveearnedhimaNobelPrizebuthe

didlandhimselfaprofessorshipataneliteuniversity

WeoftenbelievesostronglyinmodelsthattheytakeonthestatusofrealityAgood example of this is the ontological proof of the existence ofGodwhichKantexploredinhisphilosophyHemaintainedthatifweareabletoimagineabeingasperfect asGod thenhemust existWays inwhichweblindly acceptmodelsaslsquorealityrsquocanalsobefoundinoureverydaylivesforexample ifwearetoldthathumankindisfullofgreedandegoismthismodelofbehaviourmaybeinternalisedand(unconsciously)imitated

IhaterealitybutitrsquosstillthebestplacetogetagoodsteakWoodyAllen

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

WhatdoyoubelieveindespitenotunderstandingtheevidenceAndwhatdoyoubelieveindespitehavingnoevidencetosupportit

THEUFFEELBAEligKMODEL

HOWTOGETTOKNOWYOURSELF

IfyouwantgainageneralunderstandingofyourselfandothersUffeElbaeligkrsquospublic opinion barometer is a good starting point It reveals behavioural traitsandtendencies

You should bear in mind that you are always subject to four differentperspectives

bullhowyouseeyourself

bullhowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullhowothersseeyou

bullhowotherswouldliketoseeyou

PROCEEDASFOLLOWS

bullWithout takingtimetothinkabout itdecidethefollowingonascaleofone to tenHowmuchof a teamperson areyou andhowmuchof anindividualistDoyoupaymoreattentiontocontentortoformWhatismoreimportant toyou thebodyor themindDoyoufeelmoreglobalthanlocalUseapentoconnectthelines

bullNowtakeadifferentcolouredpen tomarkon thescalehowyouwouldliketoseeyourself

bullDefineyourownaxes(richndashpoorhappyndashsadextrovertedndashintroverted)

Beware You are only creating a snapshot And note that the sum of an axisshouldalwaysbeten(youcannotbetenpointslocalandtenpointsglobal)

Whatispreventingyoufrombeingthewayyouwouldliketobe

FillinthemodelforyourselfThenaskyourpartneroragoodfriendtofillitinforyouComparetheresults

THEFASHIONMODEL

HOWWEDRESS

The writer Eric Sommier created this model in which he positions well-knownclothingbrands

Theartofdressingwithoutdressingup

THEENERGYMODEL

AREYOULIVINGINTHEHEREANDNOW

ItisalwayssaidthatweshouldlivelsquointhehereandnowrsquoButwhyTheSwissauthorPascalMerciersaysthislsquoItisanerroranonsensicalactofviolencetoconcentrate on the here and now with the conviction of thus grasping theessential What matters is to move surely and calmly with the appropriatehumourandtheappropriatemelancholyinthetemporallyandspatiallyinternallandscapethatwearersquo

Here is a non-judgemental question how much of your time do you spendthinkingaboutthepasthowmuchaboutthehereandnowandhowmuchaboutthe future Or to put it another way how often do you think wistfully orthankfullyaboutwhathasbeenHowoftendoyouhavethefeelingthatyouarereallyconcentratingonwhatyouaredoingataparticularmomentHowoftendoyou imaginewhat the futuremayhold andhowoftendoyouworryaboutwhatliesaheadofyou

Thethreeexamplesshowninthemodelontherightcanalsorepresentculturalvalues memory-driven in nostalgic Europe dream-driven in the USA thelsquolandofopportunityrsquoandreality-driveninindustriousAsia

YoucanrsquotchangethepastButyoucanruin thepresentbyworryingabout thefuture

rarrSeealsoCrossroadsmodel(p40)

Fillinhowmuchtimeyouspendinthepastpresentandfuture

THESUPERMEMOMODEL

HOW TO REMEMBER EVERYTHING YOU HAVE EVERLEARNED

Long-term memory has two components retrievability and stabilityRetrievabilitydetermineshoweasilywe remembersomethinganddependson

how near the surface of our consciousness the information is lsquoswimmingrsquoStabilityontheotherhandistodowithhowdeeplyinformationisanchoredinour brains Some memories have a high level of stability but a low level ofretrievabilityTrytorecalloneofyouroldphonenumbersndashyouprobablywonrsquotbe able to But if you see the number in front of you you will recognise itimmediately

ImaginethatyouarelearningChineseYouhavelearnedawordandmemoriseditWithoutpracticeovertimeitwillbecomeincreasinglydifficulttorememberTheamountoftimeittakesforyoutoforgetitcompletelycanbecalculatedandideally you should be reminded of the word precisely when you are in theprocessofforgettingitThemoreoftenyouareremindedofthewordthelongeryouwill remember it for This learning programme is called SuperMemo andwasdevelopedbythePolishresearcherPiotrWoźniak

ItrsquosnotwhatyouknowitrsquoswhatyourememberJanCox

Afterlearningsomethingyoushouldideallyrefreshyourmemoryofitatthefollowingintervalsonetenthirtyandsixtydaysafterwards

THEPOLITICALCOMPASS

WHATPOLITICALPARTIESSTANDFOR

Although we still tend to think of politics in terms of lsquoleftrsquo and lsquorightrsquo thispolarisation is too simplistic to describe todayrsquos complex political landscapeTraditionallyatoppositeendsofthepoliticalspectrumLabourandConservativehavemovedsoclose together in termsofsharedeconomicandsocialpoliciesthat there is little left to distinguish them Traditional definitions can also bemisleadingItspositiononraceandnationalismmeansthattheBNPisgenerallyregardedasradicallyright-wingyetitisfartotheleftevenofLabourwhenitcomestosomesocialissueslikehealthandhousing

Theclear-cutpoliticaldivisionsofthepastmayhavebecomeblurredbutthereare models for measuring the views and attitudes of voters One of the mostfamousofthesetoolsiscalledthepoliticalcompassYoucanplotyourpoliticalpositiononthismodeltheaxesofwhichareleftndashrightandliberalndashauthoritarian

Notethat the leftndashrightaxisrelatesnot topoliticalorientationin the traditionalsensebut to economicpolicy left=nationalisation right=privatisationTheliberalndashauthoritarianaxisrelatestoindividualrightsliberal=allrightsliewiththe individual authoritarian = the state has a high degree of control over itscitizens

AlwaysradicalneverconsistentWalterBenjamin

Analysis of the UK political landscape at the time of the 2010 generalelectionbypoliticalcompassorgAskyourselfwhereyoustandWheredidyoustandtenyearsago

THEPERSONALPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEWHETHERYOUSHOULDCHANGEYOURJOB

Many people are unhappy in their jobs But how can job dissatisfaction bemeasuredThismodelwillhelpyoutoevaluateyourjobsituation

Everyeveningfor threeweeksaskyourself thefollowing threequestionsandinsertyouranswersinthemodelonascaleofone(lsquodoesnrsquotapplyatallrsquo)toten(lsquototallyappliesrsquo)

bullHaveto Towhat extent aremy current tasks being imposed onme or

demandedofme

bullAbletoTowhatextentdomytasksmatchmyabilities

bullWanttoTowhatextentdoesmycurrenttaskcorrespondtowhatIreallywant

After three weeks analyse the shapes of the different lsquosailsrsquo If you arelsquomovingrsquothenyourjoboffersyouvarietyIftheshapeofthesailisalwaysthesamethenaskyourselfthefollowing

bullWhatdoyouwant

bullAreyouabletodowhatyouwant

bullWhatareyouabletodo

bullDoyouwantwhatyouareabletodo

Ifyoucanrsquotdosomethingyouhavetoworkatit

rarrSeealsoFlowmodel(p46)Rubberbandmodel(p22)

TowhatextentareyourcurrenttasksbeingimposedonyouTowhatextentdotheymatchyourabilitiesandtowhatextentdotheycorrespondtowhatyouwant

THEMAKING-OFMODEL

TO DETERMINE YOUR FUTURE FIRST UNDERSTANDYOURPAST

WhenitcomestostrategicdecisionsweusuallyfocusonthefutureOurdreamsareactedoutinthefutureandourhopesarepinnedonfulfillingthesedreams

ButwhyPerhapsbecausewethinkwecandetermineourfutureHoweverwetendtoforgetthateveryfuturehasapastandthatourpastisthefoundationonwhichourfutureisbuilt

Thatrsquos why the important question is not lsquoHow do I imaginemy futurersquo butlsquoHowdoIcreateaconnectionabridgebetweenthepast(egofaproject)andthefuturersquoThismodelinspiredbyavisualplanningsystemdevelopedbyTheGroveconsultingagencyhelpsyoutoworkoutwhatwasrelevantinyourpastandwhatyoucanforgetandwhatyoushouldtakewithyoufromyourpastintothefuture

This is how it works you define a timeframe ndash eg the last year yourschooldaysyourmarriageor from the foundingofacompany to todayndashandthinkback to the start of thatperiod either aloneor in agroupThenadd thefollowingtothetimeline

bullthepeopleinvolved

bullyourgoals(atthetime)

bullthesuccesses

bulltheobstaclesyouovercame

bullwhatyoulearned

Thefilled-inmodelrevealstheimportanceyouattachtoyourpast

MemoryistheonlyparadisefromwhichwecannotbedrivenJeanPaul

Choose a timeframe and note the followingWhatwere your goalsWhatdidyou learnWhatobstaclesdidyouovercomeWhatwereyour successesWhichpeopleplayedanimportantrole

THEPERSONALPOTENTIALTRAP

WHYITISBETTERNOTTOEXPECTANYTHING

lsquoSuch a promising boyrsquo ndash anybody who has heard this said about them canalreadyguesswhatliesbehindthepersonalpotentialtrapalifetimeofstrivingtofulfilthispromise

ItisthecurseoftalentedpeoplelsquoHejustneedstofindoutwhathereallywantsrsquopeoplesayHisshortcomingsareoverlookedandhissuccessesadmiredfortheeasewithwhichtheyareachievedTobeginwithheprofitsfromthisattractiveyet fatal combination of talent and charisma That is until the stupid ones

becomehardworkingthenhehastowatchfromthesidelinesasheisovertakenbypreciselythosepeoplewhohadonceenviouslylookeduptohim

The personal potential trap can be precisely traced In the model are threecurves

bullmyexpectationsofmyself

bullotherpeoplersquosexpectationsofme

bullmyactualachievements

The trap opens as soon as othersrsquo expectations of you and your actualachievementsdivergetoomuchNormallyatalentedpersoncruisesalonguntilacrisispointisreachedThewaytogoistopromise80anddeliver120

Areyoupreparedtoexpectlessofyourselfthanwhatyouthinkothersexpectofyou

The model shows three curves my own expectations the expectations ofothersandmyachievementsIfthethreedivergetoomuchyouwillfallintothepersonalpotentialtrap

THEHYPECYCLE

HOWTOIDENTIFYTHENEXTBIGTHING

Here are some questions that the smartest people in some of the biggestcompanies are pondering right nowWill Facebook surviveWillMicrosoftrsquoslsquoBingrsquoevolveWhatwillbethenextbigthingWillitberelevantandusefulndashandwillpeopleloveit

Noboby knows the answers to these questions but the people at StamfordconsultingcompanyGartnermightknowmorethanmostTheyhaveinventedamodelcalledthelsquohypecyclersquotocharacterisethelsquouumlber-enthusiasmrsquoorhypeandsubsequentdisappointmentthattypicallycomewithnewtechnologies

WhatpeopleloveabouttechnologyisbasicallythatitworksEmailingworksThe internet if you have a bit of time on your handsworks TextmessagingworksWhatdotheyallhaveincommonTheyallwentthrougheachofthefivephasesofthehypecycle

1TechnologytriggerTheproductisonthemarketandyouhearaboutiteverywherelsquoHaveyoucheckedthisoutrsquo

2PeakofinflatedexpectationsThehypeisatitspeakButpeoplestarttofindmistakesYouhearlsquoYeahitrsquosgreatbuthelliprsquo

3TroughofdisillusionmentTheproductfailstomeetexpectationsThenot-so-coolpeopleuseitYouhearlsquoItrsquossofouryearsagorsquo

4 Slope of enlightenment The media have stopped covering the

technologythehypeisoverThisiswhenmanytechnologiessimplyfallout of themarket But some businessesmight continue to experimentTheymightchangetheoriginalversionorfindnewusesforitYouhearlsquoIneverthoughtofitbeforebutyoucouldusethisinadifferentwayhelliprsquo

5PlateauofproductivityThebenefitsofthetechnologybecomewidelydemonstratedandacceptedOftenitisthe20or30versionthatemergesfrom the experimental phase to become a successYou hearhellipnothinganymorePeoplesimplyuseit

Loveisforeveraslongasitlasts

rarrSeealsoThechasm(p114)

Thehypecyclemayalsoapplytorelationships inthebeginningyoursquoreontopoftheworldThenyoustarthavingsecondthoughtsAfteracertaintimeyoueithersplitupormakealong-termcommitment

THESUBTLESIGNALSMODEL

WHYNUANCESMATTER

Anybodywhoworkswithpeopleknowsthatinformationdoesnrsquotalwaysflowtowhereit ismeanttoflowthatdepartmentsfighteachotherratherthansupporteach other and thatmanagers base their decisions on cool-sounding strategiesrather than on actual facts In the words of the organisation theorist ElliottJaqueslsquoManagementisinthesamestatetodaythatthenaturalscienceswereinduringtheseventeenthcenturyThereisnotonesinglewell-establishedconceptinthefieldofmanagementonwhichyoucanbuildatestabletheoryrsquo

Whydosometeamsworkwell togetherandothersbadlyWhatare thesubtledifferencesbetween functioningandnon-functioningstructuresTheanswer isthat we donrsquot know But what we do know thanks to US journalist MarkBuchananisthatcommunicationisvitalforahealthyworkingenvironmentandthatcommunicationtakesplaceontwolevelswhatwesayandhowwesayit

MITrsquosMediaLabmonitoredcreativeteamsatamajorbankinordertofindtheanswers to thesequestionsWho is sayingwhat towhomWhomoveswhenhow often and where to In what tone of voice is A speaking to BWho isstressedwhoseemstobesufferingfromburnout

Whatsounds likeBigBrother iscalled lsquorealityminingrsquoand in thecaseof thebankitrevealedthefollowingthatthosewhotalkedalotwithothersandwhoreadalotofemailsndashprivateaswellaswork-relatedndashseemedtobegenerallyhappierandalsomoreproductivethanthosewhoconcentratedonlyonwork

WhodoyoutalktomostofallWhoseopiniondoyouvaluemost

WithwhomdoyouspeakandhowoftenandwhataretheconsequencesofyourdiscussionsArrangeyourdiscussionswithcolleaguesinthematrix

THENETWORKTARGETMODEL

WHATYOURFRIENDSSAYABOUTYOU

Couldyousaywhoyour fivebest friendsareAndcouldyousaywithwhichfivepeopleyoucommunicate themostAndcouldyoualsosaywhatallyouracquaintanceshipshaveincommon

The followingmodel attempts to structure your contacts on the basis of youraddress book Go through your contacts list and divide up your contactsaccording to the following criteriawhoyou see andhowoften and towhichgroup(friendsfamilyacquaintancescolleagues)theybelong

Thisisalsointerestinggothroughyouraddressbookandnotedown

bullhowmanyarericherandhowmanyarepoorerthanyou

bullhowmanyareyoungerandhowmanyareolderthanyou

bullhowmanydoyouthinkaremoreattractivethanyouandhowmanyarelessattractive

bullhowmanyarethesamenationalityasyouandhowmanyareofanothernationality

Amanwhodoesnrsquot spend timewithhis family cannever be a realmanDonCorleone

rarrSeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)

InthemodelinsertthenamesofyourfriendsandcolleaguesandhowoftenyouseethemWhowouldyouliketoseemoreofWhowouldyouprefertoseelessof

THESUPERFICIALKNOWLEDGEMODEL

EVERYTHINGYOUDONrsquoTNEEDTOKNOW

Knowledgecan impresspeoplendashorbore themWhatdoyouknowBeginwiththetoprightfield

HOWTOUNDERSTANDOTHERSBETTER

THESWISSCHEESEMODEL

HOWMISTAKESHAPPEN

Everyonemakesmistakes Some people learn from them while others repeatthemHereiswhatyouneedtoknowaboutmistakes

Therearedifferenttypesofmistake

bullrealmistakesndashoccurwhenthewrongprocessiscarriedout

bullblack-outsndashoccurwhenpartofaprocessisforgotten

bullslip-upsndashoccurwhentherightprocessiscarriedoutincorrectly

Therearevariouslevelsonwhichmistakesoccur

bullskill-basedlevel

bullrule-basedlevel

bullknowledge-basedlevel

Andtherearevariousfactorsthatcontributetomistakesoccurring

bullpeopleinvolvedndashbossteamcolleaguesfriends

bulltechnicalprovisionsndashequipmentworkplace

bullorganisationalelementsndashtasktobefulfilledtiming

bulloutsideinfluencesndashtimeeconomicclimatemoodweather

The most impressive illustration of the causes and effects of mistakes is thehuman error or Swiss cheese model by James Reason (1990) The modelcomparesthedifferentlevelsonwhichmistakesoccurwithslicesofEmmentalcheeseInamistake-freeworldthecheesewouldhavenoholesButintherealworldthecheeseiscutintothinslicesandeveryslicehasmanyholesthatareindifferentplacesindifferentslicesImaginetheholesasconduitsformistakesAmistakeremainsunnoticedorirrelevantifitpenetratesonlyoneholeinoneoftheslicesButitcanleadtocatastropheiftheholesinthedifferentslicesalignand themistakepasses throughall theholes inallof thedefencesThemodelcanbeusedinthefieldsofmedicineandairtrafficforexamplendashandanywherewheremistakescanhavefatalconsequences

ExperienceisthenameeveryonegivestohismistakesOscarWilde

rarrSeealsoResultsoptimisationmodel(p146)

The illustration shows what happens when mistakes are made on threedifferent levels and three lsquoholes in the cheesersquo align 1 The pilot makes amistake 2 The co-pilot reacts incorrectly 3 While attempting to rectify themistakeanotherismade

THEMASLOWPYRAMIDS

WHAT YOU ACTUALLY NEED WHAT YOU ACTUALLYWANT

lsquoThe threemost important questionsrsquo begins the 2003German filmHierankllsquoare Are you having sex Do you have a family Are you intellectuallystimulatedScoring three yeses is paradise twoyeses iswhat you need to behappy and one yes is what you need to surviversquo The film is bad but thequestionsitasksaregood

In 1943 the psychologist AbrahamMaslow published a lsquohierarchy of needsrsquo

modelHecategorisedhumanneedsasfollows

bullphysiologicalneeds(eatingsleepingwarmthsex)

bull security (somewhere to live job security health protection againstadversities)

bullsocialrelationships(friendspartnerlove)

bullrecognition(statuspowermoney)

bullself-actualisation(individualityrealisingpersonalpotentialbutalsofaithandtranscendence)

ThefirstthreeofthesearebasicneedsIftheyaresatisfiedapersonnolongerthinksabout themThe last twoareaspirationsorpersonalgrowthneeds theycan never really be satisfied The pyramids model becomes interesting if wecontrastouraspirationswithourneeds

Rule of thumb for theWestern world the things we desire the most are thethingsweneedtheleast

CreateyourownpersonalbasicneedspyramidsWhatdoyouhaveWhatdoyouwant

THINKINGOUTSIDETHEBOX

HOWTOCOMEUPWITHBRILLIANTIDEAS

Areallyinnovativeideandashratherthananoldideathathasbeenappliedtoanewcontext or a variation of an existing idea ndash is rare Innovative ideas usuallyemerge when we leave our comfort zone or when we break the rules Theexample used here is the lsquonine-point problemrsquowhich first appeared in puzzlemagazinesatthebeginningofthetwentiethcentury

The task Connect the nine points using a maximum of four straight lineswithoutliftingyourpenfromthepaper

ThesolutionThetrickistoextendthelinesoutsidethebox

ThispuzzleisoftenusedasanexampleofcreativethinkingButdonrsquotjumptoanyrashconclusionsndashbecauseDrPeterSuedfeldaprofessorofpsychologyatthe University of British Columbia made an interesting observation Hedeveloped theRestrictedEnvironmentalStimulationTechnique (REST)whichinvolvesapersonspendingtimeinadarkenedroomwithnovisualorauditorystimulationSuedfeldnoticedthatthesubjectsoftheexperimentdidnrsquotgomadOnthecontrarytheirbloodpressurewentdowntheirmoodimprovedandtheybecamemorecreative

Apersonwhowantstothinkoutsidetheboxisbetteroffthinkinginsideabox

rarrSeealsoMorphologicalboxandSCAMPER(p28)

Left lsquooutside theboxrsquo is the areawhere theknownandunknownoverlapRighttwowaystoconnecttheninepointswithfourlines

THESINUSMILIEUANDBOURDIEUMODELS

WHEREYOUBELONG

TheSinusMilieuisapsychographicmethodforestablishingthedifferentsocio-cultural groupings towhich a person belongs It is often used inmarketing todefine target groupsThe ideawas developedby theFrench sociologistEmileDurkheimOnthenextdoublepageisararelyusedversionbyanotherFrenchsociologistPierreBourdieuintheformofanaxismodelBourdieursquosanalysisofcultural consumption challenges us to think about our deep-rooted culturalpreferencesandpractices

Thenarrownessof theSinusgroups is often criticised It is true that it cannotanswer the question lsquoWhere do I belong if my father was a bus-driver mymotherahippyIamafashiondesignerandinmysparetimeIhangoutwithmyfriendsfromthegolfclubrsquoThepopularityofthemodelcanbeexplainedbythelock-in principle if we get used to something we donrsquot want to change ourhabitseven ifwearepresentedwithsomethingnewordifferent thatmightbebetter

Nearly all market research and market analyses use the Sinus Milieu modeldespite its limitations It showsus that if amajorityhavebecomeused toonesystemitisdifficultforanothersystemtoestablishitselfHabitisstrongerthanthedesireforimprovement

OuroriginsareourfutureMartinHeidegger

Where would you position yourself Where would you position yourparentsWherewouldyouliketobepositioned

Bourdieu model Where would you position yourself Where would you

positionyourparentsAndwherewouldyouliketobepositioned

THEDOUBLE-LOOPLEARNINGMODEL

HOWTOLEARNFROMYOURMISTAKES

Double-loop learning involves reflecting on your actions and learning fromthemThe theory is based on thework of the system theoreticiansHeinz vonFoerster and Niklas Luhmann in particular on the idea of lsquosecond-orderobservationrsquoStrictlyspeakingthisisnotamodelbutatechniqueforknow-allsHowcanyoumasterthisdesirabletechniqueSimpleyoulearnhowtoobservefirst-orderobservers

First-orderobserverssee thingsas theyappear to themFor them theworld issimplythereSecond-orderobserversontheotherhandattributewhatthefirst-orderobservers see tohow they see it Inotherwords second-orderobserversobserveawayofobservingIfforexampleyoucriticiseafootballrefereeformakingawrongdecisionyouareasecond-orderobserveryourperspectiveisdifferentfromtherefereersquosbecauseyouareonestepremovedfromthegameandnotactuallycallingtheplayandyouthinkthatmakesyouabetterjudge

Duringtheactofobservingfirst-orderobserversareunawareoftheirownwayofobservingndashitistheirblindspotRecognisingthisblindspotenablessecond-orderobserverstobecomeknow-allsTheyareabletopointouttothefirst-orderobserversthatitispossibletoobservedifferentlyandthusseethingsdifferently

The psychologist Chris Argyris and the philosopher Donald Schoumln developeddouble-loop learningoutof these theoretical ideasonobservation In thebest-case scenario the single loop (the first-order observation) is best practiceSomethingthatworkswellisnotchangedbutsimplyrepeatedIntheworst-casescenario it is worst practice ndash the same mistake is repeated or a problem issolvedwithoutquestioninghowitaroseinthefirstplace

Indouble-loop learningyou thinkaboutandquestionwhatyouaredoingandtrytobreakyourownpatternnotsimplybydoingsomethingdifferentlybutbythinking aboutwhy you do it theway you do itWhat are the objectives andvaluesbehindyouractionsIfyouarefullyawareoftheseyoumaybeabletochangethem

Theprobleminherentinthedoubleloopisthediscrepancybetweenwhatwesayweareabouttodo(knownasespousedtheory)andwhatweactuallydo(knownas theory in use) If we reallywant to change something it is not enough tocreate guidelines for our employees or ourselves or to give directives Theseonly reach us as a command (espoused theory)Real changes occurwhenwereassess ourmore deeply rooted reasons objectives and values These are thelsquoforcefieldsrsquothataffectthetheoryinuse

Bethechangeyouwanttosee

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

Whenwas the last timeyoubrokeafamiliarpattern inyour lifeandreallydid something differently Which pattern would you like to break What ispreventingyoufrombreakingit

THEAIMODEL

WHATKINDOFDISCUSSIONTYPEAREYOU

TheabbreviationAIstandsforAppreciativeInquiryamethodattributedtotheAmericanmanagementexpertDavidCooperriderthatinvolvesconcentratingonthestrengthspositiveattributesandpotentialofacompanyorapersonratherthanweaknesseslsquoWhatisgoingreallywellatthemomentrsquoreplacestheclassicquestion lsquoWhat is theproblemrsquoConcentratingonweaknesscreatesanegativeimpressionfromtheoutset

EverypersoneverysystemeveryproducteveryideahasfaultsInthebest-casescenarioanawarenessofthisfactcanleadtoadeterminedpursuitofperfection

ButinmanycasesfocusingtoostronglyontheflawsofanideaorprojectstiflestheopenandpositiveapproachthatisessentialforgoodworkingpracticesThebasicprincipleistotakeanideathatisnotyetfullydevelopedandtocontinuedevelopingitinsteadofprematurelyabandoningit

Peopleoften reveal theircharacter in theirapproach todiscussionsFourbasictypescanbeidentifiedaccordingtohowpeoplereacttosuggestions

bullThefault-finderlsquoTheideaisgoodbuthelliprsquo

bullThedictatorlsquoNorsquo

bullTheschoolteacherlsquoNotheideaisnrsquotgoodbecausehelliprsquo

bullTheAIthinkerlsquoYesandwecouldalsohelliprsquo

AnyfoolcancriticiseAndmostfoolsdoBenjaminFranklin

Thenexttimeyouareinagroupdiscussionmakeanoteofhoweachpersonpresentstheirarguments

THESMALL-WORLDMODEL

HOWSMALLTHEWORLDREALLYIS

In1967 thesocialpsychologistStanleyMilgramclaimed thateveryperson intheworldisconnectedtoeveryotherpersonbyjustafewdegreesofseparationndash a maximum of six to be precise In the 1990s the model experienced arenaissanceasapartygamelsquoIknowsomebodywhoknowssomebodyelsewhoknowssomebodyelsehelliprsquo

In thisway you can connect yourself to practically any famous person in theworldndashoryoucanconnectallactors thathaveeverappeared ina filmtooneanother Surprisingly Laurence Olivier is only two steps away from PamelaAndersonPamelaAndersonappearedinSnapDragon(1993)withJamesWingWoowho in turnappeared inMarathonMan (1976)withLaurenceOlivier Ifyoudonrsquotbelieveitcheckoutthewebsiteoracleofbaconorg

Thesmall-worldphenomenonbecomesevenmoreinterestingwhenitcomestoviralmarketingwhodoyouknowwhocouldspreadthewordaboutyourideaorproductSocialnetworkslikeLinkedInandFacebookshowhowmanycontactsyouhaveandthroughhowmanyotherpeopleyouknowthesecontacts

Itrsquosnotaboutwhatyoucandobutaboutwhoyouknow

SeealsoFamilytreemodel(p26)Subtlesignalsmodel(p78)

Howmany degrees of separation do you think there are between you andGretaGarbo

THEPARETOPRINCIPLE

WHY80PERCENTOFTHEOUTPUTISACHIEVEDWITH20PERCENTOFTHEINPUT

AtthebeginningofthetwentiethcenturytheItalianeconomistVilfredoParetoobserved that 80 per cent of Italyrsquos wealth belonged to 20 per cent of thepopulationAndthatrsquosnotall20percentofworkersdo80percentofthework20per cent of criminals commit 80per cent of the crimes 20per cent of cardriverscause80percentoftheaccidents20percentofhedgefundsinvest80per cent of themoney 20 per cent of pub-goers consume 80 per cent of thealcoholWewear20percentoftheclotheswehaveinourwardrobesandspend80percentofourtimewith20percentofourfriendsInbusinessmeetings80percentofthedecisionsaremadein20percentofthetimeand20percentofacompanyrsquosclients(products)areresponsiblefor80percentofitsturnover

Of course the Pareto rule cannot be applied to everything (mathematiciansprefer themoreprecisersquo644rsquorulebecause80percentof80is64and20percent of 20 is 4) But anybodywhowants to plan their time optimally shouldknowthatroughly20percentofthetimespentonataskleadsto80percentoftheresults

IamdefinitelygoingtotakeacourseontimemanagementhellipjustassoonasIcanworkitintomyscheduleLouisEBoone

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)

ThePareto principle describes the statistical phenomenonwhereby a smallnumberofhighvaluescontributemore to the total thanahighnumberof lowvalues

THELONG-TAILMODEL

HOWTHEINTERNETISTRANSFORMINGTHEECONOMY

ThelsquoParetoPrinciplersquondashtheideathat20percentofproductsgenerate80percentof turnover ndashmay not always be right In 2004 the editor-in-chief ofWiredChrisAnderson claimed that nearly everything that is offered for sale on theinternet is also actually sold ndash however bizarre or unnecessary the product Itappears that business is gravitating to where there is variety instead ofuniformity

AndersonusedademandcurvetoillustratehisclaimOnthefarleftthecurverisessharplyupwardsHerearethebest-sellersandblockbustersthataccountfor20percentofthemarketThenthecurvelevelsoutgentlytotherightThisiswherewefindthelesspopularbooksandfilmsThispartofthecurveismuchwider spanning many more products than the peak Instinctively one wouldthink the Pareto principle is right the best-sellers (20 per cent) are moreprofitablethanthelsquorest-sellersrsquo(80percent)Butthefiguressuggestsomethingdifferentthelongtail(asAndersoncallsit)achievesahigherturnoverthanthefewbest-sellers

The internet is theworldrsquos largest library Itrsquos just thatall thebooksareon thefloorJohnAllenPaulos

rarrSeealsoParetoprinciple(p106)

The mass market wants best-sellers but there is also a demand for nicheproductsIndividualdemandmaybelowbutcollectivelythenicheproductsareworthmorethanthebest-sellers

THEMONTECARLOSIMULATION

WHY WE CAN ONLY APPROXIMATE A DEFINITIVEOUTCOME

The number pi (31415927hellip) is what mathematicians call irrational It canneverbewrittenoutinfullitcontinuesforaninfinitenumberofdecimalplacesin a seemingly random sequence of digits Randomness is found in manyphenomena that we would like to be able to predict such as changes in theweatherorthemovementsofsharepricesInspiredbythecasinocityofMonteCarlo a computer simulation method has been developed to calculate theseapparentlyincalculablephenomena

Ifyourolladiceyouknowthatyouwillrolla12345or6ButyoudonrsquotknowwhichofthesenumbersyouwillgetwithagivenrollThisisexactlyhowtheMonteCarlosimulationworksbyrunningmultipletrialsbasedonrandomsampling to determine an outcome using a combination of probabilitycalculationandstatistics

WhyistheMonteCarlomodelimportantBecauseitremindsusthatmodelsdonotrepresentrealitybutaresimplyanapproximationofreality

If I know exactly what Irsquom going to do whatrsquos the good in doing itPabloPicasso

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Blackswanmodel(p112)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

InthisexampleyouwanttopredictwhereadotislikelytolandTodosoyoulethundredsofdotslsquorainrsquorandomlyontothesquareandcounthowmanylandinside and howmany outside the quarter-circle You repeat the processmanytimesYourresultisdeterminedstatistically(ifthemajorityofthedotsusuallylandinsidethecircleyoucanpredictthatthisiswhereyourdotislikelytolandinfuture)butthereisstillacertainmarginoferror

THEBLACKSWANMODEL

WHYYOUREXPERIENCESDONrsquoTMAKEYOUANYWISER

Here are three questions for a reflective person How do we know what weknow Does the past help us predict the future Why do we never expectunexpectedevents

Inhis1912bookTheProblemsofPhilosophyBertrandRussellsummarisedtheanswers to all three questions a chicken that expects to be fed every dayassumesthatitwillcontinuetobefedeverydayItstartstofirmlybelievethathumansarekindNothinginthechickenrsquoslifepointstothefactthatonedayitwillbeslaughtered

WehumansalsohavetoacknowledgethatthebiggestcatastrophesusuallycomeasacompletesurprisetousThatrsquoswhyaccordingtoRussellweshouldalwaysquestionthethingswetakeforgranted

For example when two Boeing airliners were flown into the World TradeCenter the publicwas shocked ndash the catastrophe seemed to strike completelywithoutwarningHowever in theweeks andmonths following 11 September2001itseemedthatpracticallyeverythinghadpointedtowardsthisattack

The Lebanese writer Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this phenomenon ndash ourinability to predict the future from the past ndash the black swan In theWesternworlditwasalwaysassumedthatallswanswerewhitendashuntilnaturalistsintheseventeenthcenturydiscoveredabreedofblackswansWhathadhithertobeenunimaginablewassuddenlytakenforgranted

Talebrsquosblackswanthesisisnotreallyamodelbutarejectionofthecause-and-effectprincipleAnd it remindsus thatwe tend toclingmost tightly topillarsthatweseetoppling

Whatweretheblackswansndashtheunexpectedeventsndashinyourlifeandwhendidtheyoccur

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)Theworldrsquosnexttopmodel(p148)

THECHASMndashTHEDIFFUSIONMODEL

WHYEVERYBODYHASANIPOD

Whyisitthatsomeideasndashincludingstupidonesndashtakeholdandbecometrendswhile others bloom briefly beforewithering and disappearing from the publiceye

SociologistsdescribethewayinwhichacatchyideaorproductbecomespopularaslsquodiffusionrsquoOneofthemostfamousdiffusionstudiesisananalysisbyBruceRyan and Neal Gross of the diffusion of hybrid corn in the 1930s in GreeneCountyIowaThenewtypeofcornwasbetter thantheoldsort ineverywayyetittooktwenty-twoyearsforittobecomewidelyaccepted

The diffusion researchers called the farmerswho switched to the new corn asearlyas1928lsquoinnovatorsrsquoandthesomewhatbiggergroupthatwasinfectedbythem lsquoearly adaptorsrsquo They were the opinion leaders in the communities

respected people who observed the experiments of the innovators and thenjoined them They were followed at the end of the 1930s by the lsquoscepticalmassesrsquothosewhowouldneverchangeanythingbeforeithadbeentriedoutbythesuccessfulfarmersButatsomepointeventheywereinfectedbythelsquohybridcorn virusrsquo and eventually transmitted it to the diehard conservatives thelsquostragglersrsquo

TranslatedintoagraphthisdevelopmenttakestheformofacurvetypicaloftheprogressofanepidemicItrisesgraduallyatfirstthenreachesthecriticalpointofanynewlylaunchedproductwhenmanyproductsfailThecriticalpointforanyinnovationisthetransitionfromtheearlyadaptorstothescepticsforatthispointthereisalsquochasmrsquoAccordingtotheUSsociologistMortonGrodzinsiftheearlyadaptorssucceedingettingtheinnovationacrossthechasmtothescepticalmassestheepidemiccyclereachesthetippingpointFromtherethecurverisessharply when the masses accept the product and sinks again when only thestragglersremain

WithtechnologicalinnovationsliketheiPodortheiPhonethecycledescribedaboveisveryshortInterestinglytheearlyadaptorsturnawayfromtheproductassoonasthecriticalmasseshaveaccepteditinsearchofthenextnewthingThe chasm model was introduced by the American consultant and authorGeoffreyMoore

FirsttheyignoreyouthentheylaughatyouthentheyfightyouthenyouwinMahatmaGandhi

rarrSeealsoLong-tailmodel(p108)Paretoprinciple(p102)

ThemodelshowsthetypicalcurveofaproductlaunchtakingtheiPodasanexampleAtwhatpointonthecurvehaveyoupurchasedaniPod

THEBLACKBOXMODEL

WHYFAITHISREPLACINGKNOWLEDGE

One thing is undisputed our world is getting more complicated all the timeBlack and white good and bad right and wrong have been displaced bycomplicatedconstructsthatleavemostpeopleinthedark

As the world around us becomes increasingly fast-paced and complex theamount that we really know ndash that we can really grasp and understand ndashdecreasesallthetimeAsrecentlyasthe1980steachersstilltriedtoexplaintotheirpupilshowcomputersworkedintermsofbinarycodeTodayitismoreorlesstakenforgrantedthatwedonotunderstandmanyofthethingsthatsurround

ussuchasmobilephonesandiPodsAndevenifsomebodytriedtoexplaintheDNAcodetouswewouldprobablybeoutofourdepth

WeareincreasinglysurroundedbylsquoblackboxesrsquocomplexconstructsthatwedonotunderstandeveniftheyareexplainedtousWecannotcomprehendtheinnerprocessesofablackboxbutnonethelessweintegratetheirinputsandoutputsintoourdecision-making

The amount that we simply have to believe without understanding it isincreasingallthetimeAsaresultwearetendingtoassignmoreimportancetothosewhocanexplainsomethingthantotheiractualexplanation

In thefuture itwillbe thenormtoconvincepeoplewith imagesandemotionsratherthanwitharguments

rarrSeealsoBlackswanmodel(p112)

ThespeedandcomplexityofaprocessincreaseinrelationtoeachotherWeareoftennolongerabletounderstandincreasinglycomplexexplanations

THESTATUSMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEAWINNER

WhetheryouwishedyouhadbeenbornintoprivilegeorwerejustalittlericherweallhavesocialaspirationsButhowcanwerecogniseclassdistinctionsandsocialstatus

ThemodeloverthepagehastwoaxeslsquohowyouspenditrsquoandlsquohowyouearneditrsquoInthematrixwedefinefourtypes

OLDMONEY

The established elite can be characterised by their dogged adherence to old-school conventions in the face of a changingworld They drive two identicalRolls-RoycesforfearofotherwiseappearingtooshowyTheydonatemillionstocharitytosoothetheirconsciencesThereisatouchoftheridiculousaboutthem

CHILDRENOFRICHPARENTS

Sound likeabroken record searching for an identity thatneverwasGood fornothingTheyshouldberoutinelyignored

THENOUVEAURICHE

Spend theirmoney like therersquosno tomorrowndashasconspicuouslyaspossiblesothat everyone notices The status symbol of this group is the monster SUVHowevertheirpropensityforhysteriasuggeststhatitcouldallbeoversoon

THEGREENSUVers

The creative career organic lifestyle and green SUV proclaim an alternativeglobalisation in which good conquers evil But this sustainable way of life ismotivated less by a bad conscience than by personal advantage The greenSUVersdonotforgoluxurybecausenowadaysluxuryisgreenThemetaphorofthisneweliteisthegreenSUVsustainableluxury

The poor wish to be rich the rich wish to be happy the single wish to bemarriedandthemarriedwishtobedeadAnnLanders

THEPRISONERrsquoSDILEMMA

WHENISITWORTHTRUSTINGSOMEONE

AsthesayinggoeslsquoTrustmakeswayfor treacheryrsquoButis this trueHerersquosapuzzlethatprovidesananswer

Two prisoners are suspected of having carried out a crime together Themaximum sentence for the crime is ten years The two suspects have beenarrestedseparatelyandeachisofferedthesamedeal ifheconfesses that theybothcommittedthecrimeandhisaccompliceremainssilentthechargesagainsthimwillbedroppedndashbuthisaccomplicewillhavetoservethefulltenyearsIfboth he and his accomplice remain silent there will only be circumstantialevidencewhichwillnone the lessbeenough toputbothmenbehindbars fortwoyearsButifbothheandhisaccompliceconfesstothecrimetheywillbothbe sentenced to five years in prison The suspects cannot conferHow shouldtheyreactunderquestioningShouldtheytrusteachother

This is the so-called prisonerrsquos dilemma a classic conundrum in game theoryThetwosuspectsbothloseiftheyoptforthemostobvioussolutionndashietoputthemselvesfirsttheygetafive-yearsentenceeachTheyfarebetterifeachonetrusts that theotherwill remainsilent they thengeta two-yearsentenceeachNotethatifonlyoneofthesuspectsconfessesthenthesentenceistenyearsfortheothersuspectandtheconfessorisfreed

In1979thepoliticalscientistRobertAxelrodorganiseda tournament inwhichfourteen academic colleagues played 200 rounds of the prisonerrsquos dilemmaagainstoneanotherinordertoworkoutthebeststrategyHefoundthatinthefirst round it is best to cooperatewith your accomplice (ie trust him) In thesecondrounddowhatyouraccomplicedidinthepreviousroundByimitatinghismoveshewillfollowyours

YoucanrsquotshakehandswithaclenchedfistIndiraGandhi

YouandyouraccompliceareontrialIfonlyyouconfessyouraccomplicewillservetenyearsIfyoubothremainsilentyouwillbothservetwoyearsIfboth of you confess youwill both serve five years You cannot confer Howshouldyoureact

HOWTOIMPROVEOTHERS

THEDREXLERndashSIBBETTEAMPERFORMANCEMODEL

HOWTOTURNAGROUPINTOATEAM

There are hundreds of team performancemodels and strategies have been outthereOneofthebestndashandalsooneofthesimplestndashwasdevelopedbyAlanDrexler and David Sibbet founders of consulting company The Grove Themodelillustratessevendifferentstagesthatparticipantsinaprojecttypicallygothrough

FollowthearrowsinthemodeloverthepageAteverystagethereisaquestionthatweaskourselvesat thatpointat thebeginningof theproject lsquoWhyamIherersquo in themiddle lsquoHowwillwedo itrsquo at the end lsquoWhy continuersquoAndthere are also several adjectives that typically describe the feelings of theparticipantsduringthatstageboththefeelingstheyhavewhileworkingthroughitand the feelings theyhavewhen thestagehasbeensuccessfullycompletedManyof the stages seemobvious and trivial but experience shows that everygroupgoesthrougheverystageIfyouskipastageyouwillhavetoreturntoitlater

IfyouareleadingateamyoushouldpresentthemodelatthebeginningoftheprojectAftertheprojecthasstartedasktheparticipantsatregularintervals

bullHowfar(ieatwhichstageoftheproject)areyou

bullWhatdoyouneedtodotoreachthenextstage

Ifyouareunsureaboutwhichstageyourteamiscurrentlygoingthroughlookat

the adjectives associatedwith each stage in themodel and askyourselfwhichadjectivesapplytoyoupersonallyandwhichonesapplytotheteam

Donrsquot be afraid of stirring up negative feelings among the group An openconflict is better than one that simmers unresolved through several stages andforcesyoutoaddressissuesduringlaterstagesthatshouldhavebeendealtwithearlier

BewareDonrsquottrytoalignyourteamrigidlytothemodelThemodelissimplyanaidtoorientationitisacompassnotapacemaker

Groupsmove forwardonlywhenoneof theparticipantsdares to take the firststepAsleaderyoushouldbepreparedtobethefirsttomakemistakes

Theteamperformancemodelshowsthesevenstagesthateverygroupgoesthroughwhencarryingoutaproject

THETEAMMODEL

ISYOURTEAMUPTOTHEJOB

Regardlessofwhetheryouaretheheadofanurseryorofanationalsportsteamorwhetheryouwanttosetupacompanyorafund-raisingcommitteeyouwillbe asking yourself the same questions Do I have the right people for thisprojectDoourskillscorrespondtoourgoalsArewecapableofdoingwhatwewanttodo

ThisteammodelwillhelpyoutojudgeyourteamBeginbydefiningtheskillsexpertiseandresourcesthatyouthinkareimportantforcarryingouttheprojectNotetheskillsthatareabsolutelynecessaryforthejobDistinguishbetweensoftskills (eg loyalty motivation reliability) and hard skills (eg computerbusiness and foreign-language abilities) For each skill define where yourcriticalboundaryliesonascaleofzerototenForexampleanacceptableleveloffluencyinFrenchmightbefiveNowjudgeyourlsquoplayersrsquoaccordingtothesecriteria Connect the pointswith a lineWhat are the teamrsquosweaknesses andwhataretheirstrengths

Evenmore revealing than themodel itself is the subsequent self-evaluationbythe team members A good team is one that can correctly judge its owncapabilities

BewareRealstrengthliesindifferencesnotinsimilarities

Thebestexecutiveistheonewhohassenseenoughtopickgoodmentodowhathewantsdoneandself-restraintenoughtokeepfrommeddlingwiththemwhiletheydoitTheodoreRoosevelt

(BasedonEnglandrsquos2010WorldCupperformance)Createnewcriteriathatapply to your teamrsquos objective and evaluate each teammember against themAfterwards ask the teammembers toevaluate themselvesHowdo thecurvescompare

THEGAP-IN-THE-MARKETMODEL

HOWTORECOGNISEABANKABLEIDEA

ThegoalofeverynewbusinessistodiscoverandoccupyagapinthemarketButwhatisthebestwayofproceedingThegap-in-the-marketmodelhelpsbydepicting a market in a clear three-dimensional way Draw three axes thatmeasure the development of your market your customers and your futureproducts

SaythatyouwanttolaunchanewmagazineThen

bullThex-axisisCost-effectivenessndashhoweconomicalisyourproduct

bullThey-axisisPrestigendashhowwell-knownistheproduct

bullThez-axisisAwarenessndashhowlsquoloudrsquoisyourproduct

Position your competitorsrsquo products on the graph In areas that are densewithcompetitorsyoushouldenterthemarketwithyourbusinessmodelonlyifithasthepotentialtobealsquocategorykillerrsquoForexampleGraziawasabletoconquerthe already crowded womenrsquos weekly market by combining sophisticatedfashionnewswithstrictlyA-listgossipLookforanicheanareathathasbeenoverlookedandthatisnotyetoccupied

Beware If an area is completely empty you should checkwhether there is ademandthereatall

PositioningislikedrillingforoilCloseisnotgoodenough

This model helps you to identify gaps in the market position yourcompetitors according to the three axes (eg prestige cost-effectivenessawareness)Whereisthereaniche

THE HERSEYndashBLANCHARD MODEL(SITUATIONALLEADERSHIP)

HOWTOSUCCESSFULLYMANAGEYOUREMPLOYEES

Over the last hundred years organisational theory has taken many differentturnsMan is amachine and should be treated as such (Taylor Ford) Payingattention to social factors and not objectively regulated working conditionsleads to the best results (Hawthorne) Organisations can regulate themselves(ClarkFarley)Andstrategicmanagementiethedivisionoforganisationsintoprimaryandsecondaryactivitiesleadstosuccess(Porter)

A ratherdifferent theorywasput forwardbyPaulHersey andKenBlanchardwhosuggestedthatthemostimportantthingistoadaptonersquosstyleofleadershipto the situation at hand This lsquosituational leadership modelrsquo distinguishesbetween

1 Instructing When they are starting a job employees need strongleadershipWhentheyarenewtheirlevelofcommitmentisusuallyhighbut their levelofexpertise is still lowEmployeesaregivenordersandinstructions

2CoachingTheemployeesrsquolevelofexpertisehasrisenBecauseofstressandthelossoftheinitialeuphoriaatstartinganewjobtheirmotivationandcommitmentlevelshavefallenTheemployeesareaskedquestionsandtheylookfortheanswersthemselves

3 Supporting The level of expertise has risen sharply The level ofmotivationcanvaryeitherithasgonedown(employeesmayresign)or

ithasgoneupasaresultofbeinggivenmoreindependence(employeesareencouragedtocomeupwiththeirownideas)

4DelegatingEmployees are fully in control of theirworkThe level ofmotivationishighTheyaregiventheirownprojectsandleadtheirownteams

LeadyouremployeesinsuchawaythatyouyourselfbecomesuperfluousAndleadyouremployeestobesuccessfulsothatonedaytheywillbeinaleadershippositionthemselves

Read from right to left New employees must first be instructed thencoachedthensupportedandfinallydelegatedto

ReadfromrighttoleftTheratioofcompetencetoworkethiconatimeaxis

THE ROLE-PLAYING MODEL (BELBIN amp DEBONO)

HOWTOCHANGEYOUROWNPOINTOFVIEW

When the creative thinking guru Edward de Bono presented his lsquosix thinkinghatsrsquoin1986criticsdismissedtheideaasjustabitoffunDeBonorsquosideawastoassignthemembersofaworkinggroupatemporaryone-dimensionalpointofvieworlsquothinkinghatrsquoTodaythetechniqueiswidelyacceptedandDeBonorsquossixhatsareusedasateamormeetingtechniquetostimulatecommunicationandcreateaplayfulseriousapproachtoadiscussiontopic

This is how itworksAn idea or a strategy is discussedby themembers of agroup During the discussion all themembers adopt one of the six points ofviewndashreflectedinthecolourofthehat(Itisimportantthatallmembersofthegroupwearthesamecolourhatatthesametime)

Thesearethecharacteristicsassociatedwitheachcolour

bullWhite hat analytical objective thinking the emphasis is on facts andfeasibility

bull Red hat emotional thinking subjective feelings perceptions andopinions

bull Black hat critical thinking risk assessment identifying problemsscepticismcritique

bullYellowhatoptimisticthinkingspeculativebest-casescenario

bull Green hat creative associative thinking new ideas brainstormingconstructive

bullBluehatstructuredthinkingprocessoverviewthebigpicture

BewareThemeetingmustbemoderatedtoensurethattheteammembersdonotslipoutoftheirdesignatedrole

Homogenous teams ie teams inwhich themembers have similar views andcharacter traits donrsquot work as well In the 1970s Meredith Belbin studiedindividualsandcharacterrolesandtheirinfluenceongroupprocessesBasedonhisobservationsheidentifiedninedifferentprofiles

bullAction-orienteddo-erimplementerperfectionist

bullCommunication-orientedco-ordinatorteamplayertrailblazer

bullKnowledge-orientedinnovatorobserverspecialist

Ifyouhaveagoodideabutfearthatitmaymeetwithstrongresistancetrytoleadthediscussioninsuchawaythattheothermembersofthegroupthinkthatthey came up with the idea themselves The more people feel they haveoriginated an idea themore passionately they fight for its implementation Ifnobodyclaimstohavecomeupwiththeideaperhapsitwasnrsquotthatgoodinthefirstplace

I never did anything alone What was accomplished was accomplishedcollectivelyGoldaMeir

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

THERESULTOPTIMISATIONMODEL

WHY THE PRINTER ALWAYS BREAKS DOWN JUSTBEFOREADEADLINE

There are many project management models and methods Most of them arebasedonthepremisethatthereisafixedamountoftimeinwhichtocarryoutaprojectGenerallywithinthistimeideasaregathered(G)andconsolidated(C)andaconceptisselectedandimplemented(I)InreallifeweallknowthatweneverhaveenoughtimeAndthelittletimewedohaveisreducedbyunforeseeneventslikeaprinterbreakingdowntheminuteyouwanttouseit

The result optimisationmodel divides the available time into three sequences(loops) of equal length thereby forcing the project manager to complete theproject three times The idea is to improve the outcome in each successiveworkingloopThismethodleadsnotonlytoimprovedoutputqualitybutalsotoamoresuccessfulfinaloutcomeattheendofaprojectinsteadofsimplybeingglad that it is lsquofinally put to bedrsquo the whole team has a threefold feeling ofachievement

BewareBestringentwhencarryingout thisstrategywork insuchaway thateach loop is properly completedbefore embarkingon thenextOtherwise thismodellosesitsdynamic

Withdevelopmentprocessesitisimportanttoclearlyseparatethethreestagesofgatheringconsolidationandimplementation

AbeautifulthingisneverperfectAnonymous

rarrSeealsoDrexlerndashSibbetteamperformancemodel(p130)

To achieve an optimal result you should plan your project so that it islsquofinishedrsquothreetimesAfterthethirdtimeitreallyisfinished

THEWORLDrsquoSNEXTTOPMODEL

WHATCANWELEARNFROMTHISBOOK

Evenwhenitcomestomakingthesimplestdecisionthenumberoffactorstobetaken into account can exceed our powers of imagination Thereforemanagementmodelshavetriedtoreducecomplexitybycondensingideasintoa

matrixwithfourfields

lsquoIt all started with spreadsheet programmesrsquo explains Karin Frick head ofresearch at theGottliebDuttweiler institute Spreadsheets are among themostpowerful management tools of recent years Spreadsheet software such asMicrosoftrsquos Excel have revolutionised theway inwhichwemanage expensesandbudgets

lsquoTo a man with a hammer everything looks like a nailrsquo This observation ofMark Twainrsquos can also be applied to models which tend to create their ownreality Four-field matrices and Excel spreadsheets give their users a way ofviewing understanding andorganising theworldTheyhave changed thewaywe understand business processes as drastically as the telescope changed thewaywelookattheskyWhentheywereintroducedspreadsheetsandmatriceswerenewvisualaidswhichofferedcompaniesawayofviewingrealityfromanewperspectiveButtherealitywasmorecomplexthanthemodelswouldleadustobelieve

The next top model was introduced in the 1970s by Frederic Vester Hepopularised the idea of networked thinking Since then there has been asuccession of best-sellers on the topic of lsquomanaging complex systemsrsquo egKevin KellyrsquosOut of Control in the 1990s and The Black Swan by NassimNicholasTalebin2007Howtohandlecomplexsituationssystematicthinkingchaos theory and self-organisation theory have been compulsory reading formanagersforyears

YetmanagementtheorytodayisataboutthesamestageasmedicinewasbeforetheintroductionofX-raytechnologyandmorerecentlycomputertomographyBefore thendoctorswere largelyunable topenetratebeyondsymptoms to theunderlyingcausesandtheir treatmentmethodswerecorrespondinglyprimitiveand imprecise The development of the new techniques made possibleincreasinglypreciseproceduresAndsoongeneticengineeringmayenableustotacklethecausesofdiseasesdirectly

Thetypeofanalysisnowusedingeneticengineeringispromisingnewinsightsin the area of management The programs that are being developed for thedecryptionofgeneticinformationandfortheearlydetectionofdiseaseswillinfuturealsohelptodecipherpatternsinbuyingbehaviourandotherinformationflowsInSuperCrunchersIanAyresshowshowthisisalreadypossibletodayHerearesomeexampleshegives

bullOn the basis of statistical analyses of theweather data in theBordeauxwine-growing region the economist Orley Ashenfelter can predict thequality of new vintages more accurately than the wine guru RobertParkerwhoreliesonhisintuitiontastebudsandexperience

bull Online customers of the credit card company Capital One receive acomputer-generated answer before they even have a chance to ask aquestionbasedonananalysisofquestionsandanswersaskedbyusersofthesamekindofcreditcardtheyhaveOnlythencantheychooseanalternativequestion from themenu (ApparentlyVisa isalreadyable topredictdivorcesonthebasisofcredit-carddata)

bullHarrahrsquosCasinoscanpredictwhenapunterrsquoslsquolosingpainthresholdrsquowillbe reachedWhen theprogramgivesawarninga lsquoluckambassadorrsquo issentoff toentice the loserwithagiftbefore it is too latendash in thehopethattheywillstayandcarryonlosing

Today the results of certaindecisions are first tested in avirtualworldbeforetheyareimplementedinrealmarketsndashakindofmarkettestinsilicoNowadaysalmost everything we do buy and decide leaves behind electronic traces (bymeans of RFID tags people and products can be relatively easily located inspaceandtime)Inthiswaycompaniesareabletomonitorhowtheirbusinessisrunningwheretheircustomers(oremployees)arewhattheyarecurrentlydoingandevenhowtheyarefeeling

In the future decision-makers will work with prognosis tools (as describedabove) rather thanwithmodelsBut there isaproblemdecision-makersusing

such tools in the present do not understand what they are calculating TheformulasandmodelsthatexplaintheworldareblackboxesunderstoodbyonlyafewexpertsThetypicaluserhastotrustthesystemwithoutunderstandingitButalthoughwemaynotknowexactlywhatthemodelsarecalculatingwecanstilltestmeasureandrefinethemwithrealcustomerandmarketdata

Doesthismeanthatyoucanforgetallthemodelsyouhaveencounteredinthisbook On the contrary The value of these early models should not beunderestimatedinanincreasinglyconfusingandchaoticworldtheyhelpustofocusonwhatisimportantandtobelieveinwhatweseeEvenwiththenewestmedicalinventionstohandadoctorwillstillrelyonthemostbasicdiagnostictoolslisteningtoandexaminingthepatient

Themodelsinthisbookgiveusawayoflookingattheworld

rarrSeealsoBlackboxmodel(p118)

An example of a dynamic model by Valdis Krebs it illustrates buyingbehaviourforpoliticalbooksliberalcontent(black)conservativecontent(grey)andbookswithnopoliticalagenda(white)Mostreaderssticktooneofthethreegroups

NOWITrsquoSYOURTURN

DRAWINGLESSON1

WHYYOUSHOULDDRAWWHILEYOUTALK

ModelsworkbestifyoudrawthemWhyDoanexperimentspeakinfrontofan audience about a subject and look to see howmany of the listenersmakenotesduringyour lectureGive thesame talkagainndash toadifferentaudiencendashandwhile you are speaking drawmodels for them that roughly illustrate yourthoughtsHowmanyof the listenerscopy themodelsHowmanymakenotesthistime

Thesearetheadvantagesofgivingideasavisualform

bull The audience does not just listen to you it also looks at what you aredoingndashyoureceivetwiceasmuchattention

bullAttentionisdirectedfromyourpersontoyoursubjectYouarenolongerstanding in front of a jury you are speaking with the jury about aseparateissue

bull Images are always remembered in connectionwith feelings and placesYourlistenerswilllookatthemodelandrememberyourlecture

Youcanonlydrawstick-menNottoworryThemoresophisticatedandperfectadrawingisthemorealienatingitisWithsimplecleardrawingstheaudiencegetsthefeelingthattheycoulddothistooSostickwithyourstick-menndashthisdoesnrsquotrequireyoutobeatalentedartistndashbutkeepdevelopingthem

DRAWINGLESSON2

HOW TO MAKE A BIG IMPRESSION WITH LITTLETRICKS

bullDrawwhileyoutalkWhentheyaredrawninrealtimeevenimpreciseor arbitrary elements are understood by the viewer ndash and treatedmoreleniently

bullPictures saymore than a thousandwords Draw an iceberg to drawattentiontoagrowingproblematempleifyouwanttoillustratepillarsofsuccessabridgetoshowconnectionsroughoutlinesofcountriestoestablish a geographical context a conveyor belt for procedures andprocesses a funnel if you want to consolidate ideas a pyramid for ahierarchy

bullFamiliarbutdifferentEveryoneunderstandstrafficsignsndashortheplayandpausebuttonsignsontheremotecontrolEvenbettersurpriseyouraudiencebyturningtraditionalsymbols(eg$)orabbreviations(eglsquotrsquofortime)intopictograms

bullCreatestructureIfyouhavetodiscussimportantbutunconnectedideaswrite them down and circle each one But donrsquot create unnecessaryconnections between the circles eg by overlapping them or linkingthemwitharrows

bullWrongbutstrongIfyoudrawacrookedlinedonrsquotgobackandcorrectitbecausethelineofyourargumentwillthenbeinterruptedThesameapplies if your circles come out looking like eggs These are abstractillustrationsnotworksofart

MYMODELS

APPENDIX

BIBLIOGRAPHY

BeckerUdoTheContinuumEncyclopediaofSymbolsContinuum2000

Bourdieu Pierre Distinction A Social Critique of the Judgement of TasteHarvardUniversityPress1984

EsquireTheBigBlackBookHearstCorporation2007

GladwellMalcolmTheTippingPointBlackDayBooks2002

KelleyTomTheArtofInnovationCurrency2000

KleinNaomiTheShockDoctrineMetropolitanBooks2007

KochRichardThe 8020Principle The Secret of AchievingMorewith LessDoubledayBusiness1997

MacRoneMichaelandLulevitchTomEurekaWhatArchimedesReallyMeantand80OtherKeyIdeasExplainedHarperCollins1994

MankiwNGregoryMacroeconomicsWorthPublishers1997

Reason James lsquoHuman error models and managementrsquo British MedicalJournal18March2000320768ndash70

SengePeterTheFifthDisciplineCurrency2006

StroebeWolfgangHewstoneMilesandStephensonGeoffreyMIntroductiontoSocialPsychologyAEuropeanPerspectiveBlackwell1996

TalebNassimNicholasTheBlackSwanTheImpactoftheHighlyImprobableRandomHouse2007

Whitmore John Coaching for Performance 4th revised edition NicholasBrealeyPublishing2009

WiredCondeacuteNast2008

ONTHEINTERNET

Swiss cheese model wwwpubmedcentralnihgovarticlerenderfcgiartid=1117770

BCGmatrixwww12managecommethods_bcgmatrixhtml

Morphologicalboxwwwzwicky-stiftungch

Do-it-yourselfbusinessgraphicswwwbilliondollargraphicscom

A periodic table of visualisation methods wwwvisual-literacyorgperiodic_tableperiodic_tablehtml