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Poll survey reprt for BangladeshTRANSCRIPT
he Daily Star-Asia Foundation Opinion Survey
Good job, but short on votes Most people happy with AL govt's performance, yet they don't want to vote for it in the next polls; caretaker issue a big negative point
At first glance it looks like a paradox. The Awami League-led government receives a lot of laurels from voters on various issues including agriculture, power supply, delivery of public service and law and order. But when it comes to voting, a majority 55 percent people said they would vote for the BNP, and only 28 percent said they would vote for the AL. Also a thinly higher percentage of people think the country is heading in the right direction. A close scrutiny would reveal that the AL actually lost people's confidence in a few crucial issues such as governance and corruption. And this might have ultimately led them to abandon the AL and root for the BNP. Chucking away the caretaker government system seems to be a big negative point for the government as an overwhelming 77 percent respondents feel the next election should be held under a caretaker government. This issue might have had the single biggest impact on pushing voters away from the AL. This is how people's perception was reflected in the latest public opinion survey conducted by The Daily Star ...
blished: Friday, November 1, 2013
MethodologyIn September 2013, The Asia Foundation and The Daily Star implemented a rapid assessment of citizens’ perception of recent events based on a national survey of Bangladesh citizens of voting age conducted in the second and third weeks of September 2013. The survey was conducted in 14 districts of the country (two in each of the seven divisions) and gathered impressions from a cross-section of ordinary citizens, civil society representatives, local businesspersons, and other (non-political) elites through informal individual interviews in (i) each divisional headquarter and a proximate rural upazila in the same district; and (ii) district headquarter of another randomly chosen district in each division and a proximate rural upazila in the same district. A formal questionnaire was administered.
The sample included 1,400 respondents and the survey design intended that 700 urban and 700 rural citizens would be interviewed. All respondents were 18 years old or above. The sample design included 100 respondents in each district (50 urban and 50 rural). Half of the interviewees in each location were to be ordinary citizens and the other half (non-political) elites. Ordinary citizens included marginal or small farmers; daily wage laborers in agriculture or non-agriculture; factory workers; construction workers; transport workers; shop employees; small businesspersons/traders; fishermen; roadside vendors; rickshaw/van pullers; etc. Full-time housewives from low income households were also considered as ordinary citizens. The (non-political) elite group included professionals such as teachers, lawyers, doctors and engineers; NGO officials; officials of private firms; businesspersons (producers and traders); religious leaders; and medium or large farmers. Housewives from high income households were included in the respondent base. Government officials, such as those in district or Upazila Nirbahi offices, were not interviewed; however, teachers in government schools, doctors in government clinics and similarly placed individuals were eligible for inclusion in the respondent base. The survey tried to ensure a wide variety of occupation types and a reasonable mix of men and women within each group. The survey also tried to include a proper representation of respondents from different age groups (18-29, 30-49, and 50+). Youth is defined in this report as those belonging to the age group 18-29.
In each district headquarter, 50 respondents (25 ordinary citizens and 25 elite) were to be chosen. In each rural upazila, likewise, 50 respondents (25 ordinary citizens and 25 elite) were to be chosen. The survey tried to ensure a mix of occupation types. The attempt to choose specific occupation types made it difficult to obtain the intended equal balance of males and females in the sample. Also, rural sampling fell short of the intended target of 700, while urban sample exceeded the target of 700. A suitable weighting procedure was then used to correct for the over and under sampling, and the effective weighted sample comprised of 1,054 rural (75%) and 346 urban (25%) respondents, of which 701 were males and 699 females.
ublished: Friday, November 1, 2013
The Upcoming 2014 National Election
Which party will win?
A majority of respondents (55%) believe that the Bangladesh Nationalist party (BNP) will win the next election. Less than 28 percent consider that the ruling Awami League will win the
election, while 12 percent did not respond.
In your opinion, which party is likely to win in the next election?
Which direction the country is going
Peoples’ perception about which direction the country is going remains almost static from January this year. 47 percent of respondents think the country is going in the right direction
while 44 percent think it is going in the wrong direction. However, as before the urban voters are more skeptic with 52 percent thinking the country is going in the wrong direction while only 37
percent believing it is going in the right direction.
Generally speaking, do you think that things in Bangladesh are now going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction?
Demand for a caretaker government
Respondents were asked if they thought the next election should be held under a caretaker government as in previous elections. A large majority of respondents (77%) think that it should.
Clearly this shows that people believe that a peaceful election will not be possible without a neutral caretaker government in place.
Do you think the next election should be held under a neutral caretaker government as in previous elections?
Confidence in the Government
Citizens’ confidence in the Government is based on how its activities have improved their lives, and is based on their assessment of a combination of factors, many of which has been outlined in this report. When asked if they have confidence in the Government, 55 percent of respondents said they have reasonable or high confidence while 45 percent said they have low confidence. Rural respondents and female respondents have higher confidence in the Government than urban respondents, male respondents or youth respondents.
Do you have confidence in the present Government?
Rating of Government’s Performance
How well has the Government performed during its tenure so far? Seventeen areas of Government action were mentioned to respondents and they were asked to rate the Government’s performance as successful or not successful. This rating provides a summary outline of voters’ perception of the Government’s successes and failures during its tenure.According to more than 30 percent of respondents, the Government appears to have been successful or highly successful in improving education and health facilities and services, increasing availability of pure drinking water, improving the quality of services provided by government offices at upazila/district levels, ensuring adequate fertilizer availability, building new infrastructure (e.g., roads / bridges / culverts) or improving quality of existing infrastructure. However, more than 50 percent of respondents believe the Government was not at all successful in reducing unemployment, keeping food prices under control, reducing corruption in government and in the judicial system, stabilizing fuel prices and controlling terrorism.
Areas in which more than 30% of respondents considered the Government’s performance as successful or highly successful
Areas in which a majority of respondents considered the Government’s performance as not at all successful
Published: Friday, November 1, 2013
National ProblemsMajor problems facing Bangladesh today
Respondents were asked to identify the biggest and second biggest problems facing Bangladesh today. Obtaining a ranking of problems based on their perceptions, it is observed that the following seven problems are considered by at least 10 percent of the population as being significant in the current context.
Top seven problems facing Bangladesh
In addition, lack of job security, crime (theft, robbery, murder, extortion, mastani), terrorism and human rights violations are considered as major problems by five to10 percent of respondents in the various categories.
Local EnvironmentMajor problems facing localities today
Respondents were asked to identify the biggest and second biggest problems facing their localities today. Obtaining a ranking of problems based on their perceptions, it is observed that the following seven problems are considered by at least 10 percent of the population as being
significant in the current context.
Top seven problems facing localities
Other local problems that may be mentioned are lack of security for people and conflicts and violence (mentioned by 14.3 percent and 11.1 percent of urban respondents). Lack of job security, poor road infrastructure, drugs and crime were also mentioned as leading local problems by five to ten percent of respondents in all categories.
Published: Friday, November 1, 2013
Performance of local economyFood prices
High and rising food prices have been articulated by respondents as among the top three problems. 80 to 90 percent of respondents said prices of rice, vegetables, pulses, edible oil, fish
and meat have increased; approximately 40 percent said these prices increased a lot.
How have food prices changed in your locality during the tenure of the present government?
Agricultural input prices
Affecting food prices is the cost of production and availability of different foods. Agricultural input prices are an important element of cost of production and respondents were queried
regarding the trend in prices of some major inputs during the tenure of this Government. In the case of urea and other fertilizer types, more than 50 percent of respondents said prices have
increased (with approximately 15 percent saying prices increased a lot). With respect to diesel prices, 84 percent of respondents said prices have increased with 32 percent saying prices
increased substantially.
How have agricultural input prices changed in your locality during the tenure of the present government?
Agricultural performance
Agricultural performance is intimately connected with food availability, resulting food prices and consumers’ access to food. How well have agriculture performed during the tenure of this
Government?A majority of respondents said agricultural activities have grown. This along with the
information on agricultural input availability points to a healthy agricultural growth during the tenure of this Government.
Availability of agricultural inputs
An important element of food production is the availability of fertilizers. Respondents were asked if fertilizers and diesel were available in sufficient quantities to meet local demand during the last boro season. About 80 percent of respondents said that fertilizers and diesel were indeed
available in sufficient quantities.
Have agricultural activities in your locality grown or reduced during the last four years?
Electricity supply
Supply of electricity has been a major problem in Bangladesh and consumers have been hard hit over the years by recurrent load-shedding. Respondents were asked if this Government has done
better than the previous elected Government with respect to electricity supply. A majority of respondents said that electric supply has increased; this holds both in rural and in urban areas.
Has the electrical power supply increased or decreased in your locality compared to the situation prevailing under the previous elected government?
A related question is whether the Government is taking adequate steps at the national level to meet power supply needs.
A majority of respondents in both rural and urban areas think that it is doing so.
Is the government taking adequate steps at the national level to meet power supply needs?
ublished: Friday, November 1, 2013
Human RightsTo understand the extent to which human rights have been upheld in Bangladesh, respondents were asked to comment on four relevant human rights issues.
Extra-judicial killings by security forcesAbout 50 percent of respondents stated that such killings have decreased during the tenure of this Government; 37 percent disagreed. This points to a perceived improvement in the human rights situation.
Do you agree or disagree with the following statements on human rights issues?
Incidents of disappearances or intimidation of opposition members, political activists, labor rights activists or journalists34 percent of respondents believe such incidents have decreased while 43 percent believe these have increased. In the perception of people, therefore, political harassment continues in Bangladesh in violation of human rights.
Working conditions of industrial workersOn this issue, a majority of respondents (60%) believe that industrial workers are forced to work in poor and often hazardous working conditions. This is again a major violation of human rights affecting industrial workers.
Violence against women including domestic violence, sexual harassment, acid attacks and illegal punishments through fatwasA majority of respondents (54%) consider that such violence is continuing due to weak implementation of existing laws and judicial guidelines. This is a human rights violation that needs to be speedily corrected by the Government.Another aspect of human rights is the right to give opinions on national or local political issues in any locality. About 75 percent of respondents believe that they can express their opinions on national or local political issues in the localities where they live. There is uniformity of perceptions regarding this among all respondent categories.
Do you feel free to express political opinions in the locality where you live?(% of people saying “yes”)
Published: Friday, November 1, 2013
Law and OrderIncidents of criminal activity: Respondents were asked if criminal activities (theft, robbery, murder, extortion, mastani, etc.) in their localities have increased or decreased during the tenure of this Government compared to the situation that prevailed under the previous elected Government. About 62 percent of the respondents maintained that the extent of criminal activity is now lower (47%) or is about the same (15%). In urban areas, however, 51 percent of respondents say criminal activity has increased while 49 percent say that it is about the same or lower.
Are incidents of criminal activity (theft, robbery, murder, extortion, mastani, etc.)higher or lower in your locality now than during the tenure of the previous elected
government?
How secure are citizens?
42 percent of respondents believe they are more secure now than during the tenure of the previous elected government. An additional 19 percent say the situation remains more or less unchanged. Opinion among different respondent categories is quite uniform.
Do you feel more secure or less secure now than you did during the tenure of the previous elected government?
CorruptionNational Level
Approximately 50 percent of respondents believe that corruption at the national level has increased compared to the situation under the previous elected government. This percentage is almost uniform among all respondent categories.
Do you think corruption at the national level has increased or decreased compared to the situation under the previous elected government?
Local level
Respondents were asked to judge, in light of their own experience, whether corruption has decreased, increased, or stayed about the same in their localities compared to the situation under the previous elected Government. About 46 percent of respondents say that corruption has increased, 32 percent believe that it has declined, while 22 percent think it is about the same. One can reasonably say that the extent of corruption is about the same or higher now than during the tenure of the last elected Government.
Considering your own experience over the past four years, would you say that corruption has decreased, increased, or stayed about the same in your locality compared to the
situation under the previous elected government?
Effectiveness of the Anti-corruption Commission (ACC)
The ACC which shot into prominence as an effective body during the previous Caretaker Government regime appears to have lost much of its bite under the current Government. Respondents were asked to comment on its present effectiveness in identifying and reducing corruption. Approximately 60 percent of respondents consider that the ACC is no longer able to play an effective role in identifying and reducing corruption. This view is uniform among all respondent categories.
Do you think the Anti-Corruption Commission (ACC) is now able to play an effective role in identifying and reducing corruption?
Quality of public services
Associated with corruption is the quality of public services. It is often said that while the extent of corruption is high, the quality of public services remains very poor. However, the survey reveals that more than 50 percent of respondents consider that the quality of public services provided by government offices (upazila, district offices) has improved compared to the situation under the previous elected Government. Only about one-fifth of respondents mention a deterioration.
Has there been an improvement or deterioration in the quality of public services at the local level
compared to the situation under the previous elected Government?
Published: Friday, November 1, 2013
Issues Relating to YouthsThe survey checked on various perceptions regarding the situation relating to the youth. There is severe unemployment among youths because they do not have the right skill sets to be employed and even if they have education, they cannot find jobs. These two perceptions are substantiated by a majority of respondents (51 and 78 percent respectively). Only 29 percent of respondents think that the youth get sufficient support from the Government. Severe consequences can be expected; with the prevailing unemployment, youth may take to drugs, they may become unruly and threaten peace and order, may be misled by extremists and can easily be swayed by incorrect values. The survey findings substantiate these hypotheses—about 80 percent of respondents think that drug abuse is a serious problem for today’s youths; 56 percent believe that today’s youths tend to be unruly and threaten peace and order; 50 percent consider that youths are misled by various organizations with extreme views and 34 percent think that that they can be easily swayed by incorrect social, political and religious values. Views of youths reflected in the survey correspond with the opinions of all respondents.
Percentage of respondents who agree or disagree with the given statements on issues related to youth
Economic future of youths
Most respondents believe that the economic future of youth can be undermined by a lack of motivation or ambition to succeed, frustrations caused by the ongoing political conflict, lack of support and incentives from government, lack of necessary education and skills and drug addiction. As seen already, these factors do exist currently—the ongoing political conflict is considered a major problem in the country, support and incentives for youth from the Government are largely lacking, youths lack the skills necessary to get jobs and drug addiction is a major problem for youths.
Factors that undermine the economic future of youth (all respondents)
Published: Friday, November 1, 2013
Issues Relating to WomenProblems facing women
Women face a number of problems in their localities and rely on Government and the local society to resolve these problems and establish equal opportunities for them. Respondents were asked about their perception about the biggest problem facing women in their localities. Based on their answers, the five leading problems were identified as domestic violence, lack of jobs, social barriers, sexual harassment and low education levels.
What do you think is the biggest problem facing women in your locality?
Women’s involvement in community decision-making
Social barriers are known to exclude women from decision-making processes at the community level. But such barriers may be breaking up with economic advancement. The survey revealed that a large majority of respondents would like to see more women involved in decisions affecting their communities. This is a healthy sign for women’s future well-being.
Percentage of respondents who would like to see more women involved in decisions affecting their communities
Women as elected members of local or national government
Social barriers again preclude large participation of women as elected members of local or national government. For this reason, women’s quotas are set by the Government; for example, there are three reserved elected seats for women in the Union Parishad, reserved positions in the Upazila Parishad and unelected reserved seats in Parliament. When queried on this issue, however, a large majority of respondents said they would like to see more women as elected members of local and national government. There was uniformity of opinion on this in rural and urban areas, between males and females and among youths. Such pervasive attitudes augue well for women in the future.
Percentage of respondents who would like to see more women as elected members of local and national government
Overall Impressions of Personal Well-Being
Respondents were asked if, taking account of the combination of social, political and economic factors discussed during the interview, they felt personally better off in September 2013 than they were in January 2009 (i.e., when the present Government assumed power). In terms of an overall subjective assessment of their situation, taking all factors into account, only 26 percent of respondents believe that they are better off. 36 percent of respondents believe that their situation has worsened while another 35 percent report that there has been no change . A significantly higher proportion of urban area respondents compared to rural area respondents believe they are
worse off. Also, a significantly higher proportion of female respondents compared to male respondents believe they are worse off.
Comparing your personal situation now to your situation in January 2009, can you say whether you are
better or worse off considering all factors (social, political and economic)?
Published: Friday, November 1, 2013
Some interesting points
Likelihood of a peaceful election
Respondents were asked if they felt that the next national parliamentary election will be held peacefully with participation by all major political parties. A majority of respondents (62%) think it is likely, (47%) and very likely (15%). There is not much variation in responses between different categories of respondents.
Is it likely that the next national parliamentary election will be held peacefully with participation by all major political parties?
Desire to see a third party win
The survey enquired if citizens would like to see a party other than Awami League and BNP to win the next parliamentary election. A majority of respondents in all categories replied in the negative. Since the survey did not enquire into the reasons for their answers, it remains unclear whether this is due to a predilection for one of the two major parties or due to the belief that there is no suitable third party to lead the country.
Would you like to see a party other than Awami League and BNP to win the next parliamentary election?
Important issues for candidates in the next national election to address
Respondents were asked to identify three most important issues for candidates in the next national election to address. Obtaining a ranking of problems based on their perceptions, it is observed that the following seven issues are considered most important by the respondents: law and order; unemployment; infrastructure (e.g., roads, bridges, culverts, embankments); electricity; corruption; food safety; and drug addiction (Table 4).
Deciding who to vote for
Respondents were asked for their views on what they think will be the most important feature of consideration about a candidate that will help them decide who to vote for in the next national election. It is interesting that the candidate’s political party affiliation was mentioned by only two percent of respondents as being significant for making a choice as to who to vote for.
What do you think will be the most important feature of or consideration about a candidate that will help you decide who to vote for in the next national election?
Performance of current MP
Respondents were asked to evaluate if the current Member of Parliament (MP) of their constituency has sincerely tried to fulfill his/her election pledges during the last four years. More than 50 percent of respondents considers that their MP did try to sincerely deliver on pledges made earlier. However, 46 percent thinks the MPs did not try hard enough.
Do you think the MP of your constituency has made sincere efforts during the last four years to deliver on his election pledges to the constituents?
Religion and politics
The recent upsurge of political violence by some religious parties has led to demands by many citizens about banning religious parties from politics. A majority of respondents (approximately 60%) do not favor a ban. In the case of urban respondents, opinion is equally divided (50:50) on the issue of banning religious parties from engaging in politics.
Should religious parties be banned from engaging in political activities?
Survey MethodologyThe present government is led by Bangladesh Awami League and its alliances (popularly known as 14 party-great alliance (“Mahajot”) has completed 1st year of their power on January 06, 2010. With a view to understand current scenario, the Daily Star and Nielsen Bangladesh jointly carried out an opinion poll in end December 2009.
The basic objective of the Daily Star-Nielsen Opinion Poll 2010 was to assess the people's opinion on their
performance after completion of 1 year. The survey assessed the current political scenario and public image of different political parties and leaders. The study explored the general perception on politics in Bangladesh according to gender, age group, urban-rural and different constitutional setting, socio-economic and geographic divisions.
To ensure that the sample properly represents all possible categories, respondents were selected from the following groups:Urban and rural areasMale and female populationAge 18 years and above
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Study Design: The sample for the poll covered the entire population residing in private dwellings units in the country. Administratively, Bangladesh is divided into six divisions. In turn, each division is divided into districts, and each district into upazila. Each urban area in the municipality is divided into wards, and into mahallas within the ward. Each rural area in the upazila is divided into union parishad (UP) and into mouzas within UPs. Therefore, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were mouza in the rural areas and mohallah in the urban areas. From each PSU, required number of households and respondents were selected randomly. The list of mouzas and mohallas were procured from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Therefore, to capture overall picture of Bangladesh, the poll was carried out in 44 districts, covering all the 6 administrative divisions across Bangladesh.
A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at 3,050 based on statistical estimation, both from rural and urban areas. The split among these areas were based on national rural-urban population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was December 17-25, 2009.
The opinion survey strictly adhered to the internationally laid down methodology and ethical standard as per the guideline of ESOMAR (European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research) and standards of Nielsen Worldwide.
-Average age of respondents: 37 years, starting from 18
-Male-Female ratio: 50:50
-Literacy range: 70 percent literate, 30 percent not literate, but many can sign names
-Rural-urban ratio: 70:30
Performance of ministers
The respondents were asked to rate the ministers according to their performances. Surprisingly, 76 percent of them could not recall any minister's name. Of the remaining 24 percent, most mentioned Education Minister Nurul Islam Nahid as the top performer. Agriculture Minister Matia Chowdhury was in the second place followed by Foreign Minister Dr Dipu Moni, Food Minister Abdur Razzaque, and Finance Minister AMA Muhith.
Govt's performance: Still confident
The opinion poll shows 53 percent respondents are satisfied and 12 percent very satisfied with the performance of the government in the last one year. Together these two categories make up 65 percent of the respondents.
Against this, only 15 percent said they are dissatisfied and two percent very much dissatisfied. However, 16 percent said they are neither of these two, which actually shows a negative response for the government.
Rajshahi division respondents are most satisfied with the government while Sylhet people are the least satisfied. Dissatisfaction is the highest among Khulna residents and the least among Sylhet residents.
Matching with the above result, 62 percent respondents think that the country is heading in the right direction after a year. Only 19 percent said it is moving in the wrong direction, and 17 percent found no change.
Again people of Rajshahi were found to be more favourable to the government as 70 percent of them said they think the country is heading in the right direction. Among the people who think otherwise, the Khulna residents top the chart with 21 percent.
Opposition leader: Scores lowIn case of Khaleda Zia, 35 percent respondents are satisfied with her and four percent very much satisfied, combined a 39 percent looking at her performance as opposition leader favourably. On the other hand, 26 percent people said they are dissatisfied with Khaleda's performance, four percent very much dissatisfied, and 23 percent not disposed to either way, combined a total of 53 percent negative voting for her.
Tackling law and order: PraisedThe government's efforts of maintaining law and order got high rating as 64 percent said they think the situation has improved. Only 15 percent think it has deteriorated while 18 percent find no change.Rajshahi respondents took positive view about law and order as 68 percent said they find the situation improved. The least number of Sylhet people find the situation praiseworthy with only 53 percent of the respondents praising the situation.
Economy: Room for improvementCompared to the above two issues, the government scored less on the question of economy. Only 50 percent said they find the economy good and progressing. But 16 percent said it is moving negatively and 22 percent found the economy not so much encouraging. Seven percent said they find no difference.Once again, the highest number of Rajshahi respondents have a favourable view of the economy (64 percent) while the highest number of Khulna respondents have the unfavourable view (21 percent).
Corruption perception brightAbout corruption, the respondents' reaction was mixed. A big 53 percent felt that corruption has decreased. Twenty two percent felt that it has increased while 18 percent thought it remains at its previous level. Only 7 percent said they have no idea about the level of corruption.However, when asked about their opinions about the state of the Anti-corruption Commission (ACC), a large 55 percent refrained from responding. This shows they have a negative view of the anti-graft organisation. Fifteen percent said it is controlled by the government, seven percent said it has lost its neutrality in the last one year and 20 percent said the ACC has been working properly.The respondents were also asked to name a sector where corruption is more prevalent. Fifteen percent pointed at land reform, showing the pressure on land and the lack of a proper land recording system. An equal 15 percent pointed at the judiciary, 13 percent said the police, and another 13 percent pointed at education. Eleven percent said they have no idea about the subject. Tax, banking, and electricity were found to be the least corrupt in public perception with 3 percent of the respondents finding corruption in these sectors.
Price inflation: Critical viewHowever, price inflation appears to be a thorny issue as 52 percent think the government has poorly managed the issue while 38 percent think it has been well managed.
Political culture: High hopesThe survey found that the majority of the respondents hold a better view of the political culture as 54 percent said they see a positive change. Twelve percent has a negative view while 19
percent said the political culture remains same as before. Fifteen percent said they have no idea about it.A very large number of respondents, 83 percent, are confident that old political practices such as hartals and street violence will not return, and only 17 percent holds a pessimistic outlook.
Power: Initiative seenIn the poll, 41 percent of respondents said the government took steps to resolve the power crisis.
And 24 percent saw no change; 24 percent said the initiatives decreased. The poll found that 11 percent answered: "Don't know."
Judiciary: Poor ratingAccording to poll results, 36 percent of respondents said the judiciary was free and independent; 28 percent found it "politically biased" and 36 percent said: "Don't know.”
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Issues that deserve attentionWhen respondents were asked to name one issue that they think the government should pay most attention to, 29 percent mentioned price inflation, and 23 percent felt the government has already taken initiative in that regard. The second highest area of concern was jointly occupied by job creation and poverty alleviation (9 percent each) followed by education (8 percent). Twenty one percent said steps have been taken to improve education and 19 percent found initiatives for job creation.
Some other issuesThe respondents were asked about their opinions on daylight saving programme and 34 percent said it was a good initiative of the government while 33 percent said it was not a good decision. Twenty five percent said it was a good thing, but it was time to revert back to the old clock (the questions were asked before the government's decision to readjust the clock on December 31).
A question was asked to take opinions on what the respondents think about changing names of establishments and organisations once a new government takes over. An overwhelming eighty one percent disapprove of the practice.Asked what is their view of political sycophancy, 87 percent voiced very harsh views against such practice and said it should be stopped.
Critical of opposition's roleThe role of the opposition in the last one year was seen by the respondents more critically than favourably. Moreover a large number of respondents said they want the opposition to join the parliament.
Thirty nine percent said they are dissatisfied by the opposition's negative role. Thirty percent find the opposition playing a positive role and are satisfied. Another 15 percent find the opposition's role remaining just as before. Eighteen percent said they have no idea, which in fact goes to the opposition's discredit. Chittagong people are the most satisfied with the opposition (41 percent), and Rajshahi and Sylhet residents are the least satisfied (21 percent each). On the other hand, Rajshahi people are the most dissatisfied (46 percent) with the opposition while Barisal residents are the least dissatisfied (19 percent).Seventy five percent respondents said they want the opposition to join the parliament and only four percent endorse the boycott. Twelve percent said they have no comment on the issue.
Critical of BCLThe respondents were asked what the government should do about Bangladesh Chhatra League in view of the organisation's recent violent activities on campuses, 31 percent said it must be controlled strictly, and 3 percent talked about stern actions. A large 51 percent said they have no idea about how to control BCL.But 62 percent respondents think the government is trying to stop violence in educational institutions. Twelve percent think the government has failed in this job while 1 percent think it will never succeed in the task. A large 25 percent said they have no idea about the government's role in this regard.
Strengths and weaknessesThe survey asked what the respondents consider to be the most successful and weak points of the government. On both counts law and order and price control came out at the top, which means that the government's success areas has been almost negated by a slightly lower percent of the respondents.Twenty six percent said law and order, and 19 percent said price control is the area of success. However, other segments of respondents found commodity price (16 percent) and law and order (12 percent) as not properly handled in the last one year.One interesting point that surfaced through these questions is that neither the government could showcase its successes properly nor the opposition highlighted the government's failures, as a large section of the respondents felt they have no idea about the government's successes and failures. Thirty nine percent said they have no clear idea about the government's successes, and 49 percent said the same about the weaknesses.
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100 days vs 1 year: A comparisonThe Daily Star-Nielsen conducted two surveys, one on 100-day performance of the government and the other on 1-year performance. Comparing between these two surveys, it is evident that the people's opinions have been changed in some of the critical areas. Moreover, the strong support that the government had enjoyed at the end of its 100 days appears to have eroded to some extent after completion of its one year as expected after a landslide victory.
Overall satisfactionAt the end of its 100 days, 62 percent of the respondents said they were satisfied with the government and 19 percent highly satisfied. Together they made up 81 percent. But after one year, 53 percent said they are satisfied and 12 percent very much. Together they make 65 percent.
Which directionAfter 100 days, 71 percent said they thought the country was on the right track while the current survey showed 62 percent people think so. In the last survey, 17 percent thought the country was heading in the wrong direction while after one year, that was marginally increased to 19 percent.
Law and order situationLaw and order was a weakness in the last survey but in this survey it appeared as a strong point of the government. Currently 64 percent of the respondents said the law and order situation improved, compared to 57 percent in the earlier survey.
Political cultureAn interesting upbeat note was seen among the respondents this time about their confidence in political practices. After the 100 days, 48 percent said they think old political practices such as hartal, violence, political killings and street agitation will not return, today 83 percent think so. Moreover, a year ago, 56 percent people saw a positive change in political culture. After a year, today that confidence still continues as 54 percent now think so.
BCLThis is one area of concern for the government since its takeover a year ago, from the very first day. Although Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina took it very seriously, the situation has not improved significantly. The majority of the people said in both surveys that “Chhatra League activities should be strictly controlled”, “stern action should be taken” and “law and order situation has deteriorated due to them”.
EconomyConsidering public perceptions about the economy after the 100 days, 59 percent respondents said the economy was doing positively which -- after a year -- declined to 50 percent.
Price inflationThe government's rating on inflation also slipped over the year. Managing prices to a lower level was a major electoral pledge of the AL-led grand alliance and many thought that it worked for its victory in elections. After its 100 days, 74 percent said the government had well-managed inflation. But after its first year, only 38 percent think so. In the last survey 20 percent said they were dissatisfied with the government's measures to tackle inflation. Today 52 percent are dissatisfied.
CorruptionOne area where the government could hold the fort is the corruption perception which remains the same in both surveys. After 100 days 54 percent respondents said they thought corruption had decreased. After a year, 53 percent still think so.
Opposition's ratingThe opposition's rating remained almost static from the previous survey. After the first 100 days of the new government, 33 percent said they were satisfied with the opposition role, which is 30 percent now.After 100 days, 32 percent were dissatisfied with the opposition's negative role, which has increased to 39 percent. In response to another question, 75 percent of the respondents said the “opposition should attend the parliament first”.
Survey Methodology
The present government led by Bangladesh Awami League and its alliances completed its one a half years in power In June 2010. With a view to understanding the current scenario, The Daily Star and Nielsen Bangladesh jointly carried out an opinion poll in early August, 2010.
The basic objective of the Daily Star-Nielsen Opinion Poll 2010 was to assess public opinion on the government's performance after completion of one and a half years. The survey assessed the current political scenario and public image of different political parties and leaders. The study explored the general perception on politics in Bangladesh according to gender, age group, urban-rural and different constitutional setting, socio-economic and geographic divisions.
To ensure that the sample properly represents all possible categories, respondents were selected from the following groups:* Urban and rural areas* Male and female population* Age 18 years and above
Study Design: The sample for the poll covered the entire population residing in private dwellings units in the country. Administratively, Bangladesh is divided into six divisions. In turn, each division is divided into districts, and each district into upazila. Each urban area in the municipality is divided into wards, and into mahallas within the ward. Each rural area in the upazila is divided into union parishad (UP) and into mouzas within UPs. Therefore, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were mouza in the rural areas and mohallah in the urban areas. From each PSU, required number of households and respondents were selected randomly. The list of mouzas and mohallas were procured from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Therefore, to capture overall picture of Bangladesh, the poll was carried out in 44 districts, covering all the 6 administrative divisions across Bangladesh.
A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at 3,050 based on statistical estimation, both from rural and urban areas. The split among these areas were based on national rural-urban population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was early August, 2010.
Click on the image for larger view
The opinion survey strictly adhered to the internationally laid down methodology and ethical standard as per the guideline of ESOMAR (European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research) and standards of Nielsen Worldwide.
Right or wrong direction
Within the first 100 days of the government's coming to power in 2009, some 71 percent people thought the country was moving in the right direction. That number of people came down to 62 percent after one year. One and a half years down the line, only 50 percent people think the country is heading in the right direction. (See methodology and sample size of the poll in the box)
On the contrary, when the first poll was conducted after 100 days of the government, 17 percent thought the country was going in the wrong direction. A year later, 19 percent thought so. And now after one and a half years, that number has shot to 34 percent. Some 15 percent now think there has not been any change in the situation.
Rural people appeared to be more in a positive mood as 53 percent of them compared to 44 percent of the urban population said the country is moving in the right direction 18 months after the government's taking over. More urban people think the country is heading in the wrong direction as 38 percent said so against 33 percent of the rural population.
More males (54 percent) think favourably of the situation compared with females (47 percent). Similarly fewer males (32 percent) think negatively than females (36 percent).
Economy
People's confidence in the economy also slid in the past one and a half years. Within 100 days of the government's taking over, 59 percent thought positively of the economy. That waned to 50 percent after one year and plunged to 38 percent after one and a half years.
When the first poll was conducted, only 13 percent thought economy will lead to a bad situation as it was moving in the negative direction. This percentage inched up to 16 percent after one year and then has shot to 31 percent now. Right now, 24 percent also think the economy is not encouraging
Rural people take a better view of the economy than their urban counterparts after one and a half years. Forty-one percent of the rural respondents found good indication in the economy against 33 percent of the urban respondents.
Happy or unhappy
Less people are now satisfied with the government as they were one and a half years ago. When the first poll was done after 100 days of the government in power, 62 percent said they are satisfied with the government. That number went down to 53 percent after one year and further slid to 48 percent now.
After the first 100 days, no-one said they were dissatisfied with the government. But after one year 14 percent said they are dissatisfied, and now 9 percent say so.
Once again, the rural people are more satisfied with the government as 51 percent said so against 42 percent of the rural respondents. Similarly 21 percent of the urban population are dissatisfied against 18 percent of the rural folks.
Inflation
Managing price inflation appeared to be one serious weak point of the government after one and a half years.
After the first 100 days of the government, 74 percent said the government had well-managed price inflation. This number dropped to 38 percent after one year and now stands at 29 percent. Though the slide is clear, yet it is less sharp than between 100 days and the first year.
Similarly, only 20 percent thought inflation was poorly managed after 100 days. That number jumped to 52 percent after one year and rose further to 61 percent now. Women hold a dimmer view about inflation as only 22 percent of them thought it is well managed against 36 percent of the men. Again 66 percent women said they are dissatisfied with the government's actions on inflation against 55 percent men.
Issue needing urgent attention
Most number of people still think inflation is the most important thing that the government should pay attention to and the perception remains unchanged over the last three polls. But interestingly, as the country witnessed frequent power cuts and gas shortage, this came up as the second most important issue in the present survey. After 100 days of the government, only 6 percent said power and gas needs the greatest attention. This remained the same after one year. But now 23 percent think it needs the greatest attention.
Law and order
When the first poll was conducted after 100 days, 57 percent said they find an improvement in law and order. After one year, people's confidence rose in the government and that number went up to 64 percent. But now it has fallen to 55 percent, just below the 100-day level.
Meantime, 26 percent today feel law and order has deteriorated against 15 percent six months back and 19 percent when the government came to power. Today, 16 percent find no change in the situation.
Judiciary
More people today think judiciary is politically biased than they did one and a half years ago. One hundred days after the government came to power, 32 percent believed the judiciary is politically biased. After one year of the government, judiciary gained somewhat its neutral image and only 28 percent found it biased. Today 47 percent believe it.
Similarly, less people today think the judiciary is free and independent. When the first poll was done, 41 percent said judiciary is free and independent. Then it dipped to 36 percent after one year. Now 33 percent think it is free. A big 19 percent however said they have no idea.
Power
People are also showing they are distraught with the government's initiative to augment power. When the government was one year old, 41 percent said they find enough initiatives to solve power crisis. Six months down the line, only 22 percent, almost half the previous number, think so.
At the same time, one year after the government's coming to power 24 percent thought no initiatives had been taken in power sector. Today 39 percent think so. Thirty-three percent now also think adequate initiatives have not been taken against 24 percent six months ago.
Corruption
More people now think that corruption has increased. Both the previous polls found that 22 percent think corruption has increased. But now 35 percent think so. On the other hand, a less percentage of people -- 48 percent from 53 percent in the last poll and 54 percent in the first poll
-- now think corruption has decreased. However, more rural people (51 percent) now find a decrease in corruption against the urban population (42 percent). Some 14 percent think the situation is as before.
More people also have lost their faith in the Anti-corruption Commission (ACC) as 43 percent said they think the commission is controlled by the government and as such it has lost its neutrality. The number was just half at 22 percent six months ago. However, more people (28 percent) today also feel the ACC is doing its job properly than they thought six months ago (20 percent).
More also wanted to have their say this time from the last survey six months ago as only 28 percent did not respond on this issue this time against 55 percent during the last survey.
View on opposition
Opinion against the opposition's boycott of parliament has sharpened this time. Six months ago, 75 percent said they want the opposition to join parliament. Today 81 percent feel the same.
However, the opposition has recouped its image to some extent as 27 percent now say they think negatively about the opposition politics down from 32 percent who said so 100 days after the government came to power. Also more people now think the opposition is doing positive politics
(38 percent) against 33 percent one and a half years ago. Only one hartal call and no other disruptive programes may have contributed to this view.
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PM's rating
The prime minister's rating has eroded over the last one and a half years. After the first 100 days of the government, 81 percent in all were satisfied with the prime minister's performance. 19 percent of the respondents said they are 'very much satisfied' with the PM's performance. The rating remained the same after one year. But now it has fallen to 13 percent. After the first 100 days, 62 percent said they are 'satisfied' with the PM's performance. This dropped to 53 percent after one year and further to 50 percent now.
However, the number of dissatisfied respondents has also dropped from what it was one a half years ago. It was 15 percent then and now stands at 12 percent. The number of 'very much dissatisfied' people has increased from 3 percent six months ago to 9 percent now. The number of people who are neither satisfied nor dissatisfied has increased from 13 percent six months ago to 15 percent now.
Opposition leader's rating
However, the leader of the opposition's ratings did not improve correspondingly. Six months ago, 4 percent of the respondents said they were 'very much satisfied' with the opposition leader's performance. That figure has increased to 7 percent this time. Last time, 35 percent said they were 'satisfied' while 34 percent said so this time. Nevertheless, the number of people dissatisfied with the performance of the opposition leader has decreased from 32 percent one a half years ago to 26 percent six months ago to 19 percent now. People who are neither satisfied nor dissatisfied has increased from 14 percent one a half years ago to 23 percent six months ago to 29 percent now.
Perception on govt's steps
After one and a half years of the government, the highest number of people (35 percent) think the government has taken steps on law and order, followed by price inflation and education (33 percent).
Ministers performance
After one and a half years of the government, Agriculture Minister Matia Chowdhury and Education Minister Nurul Islam Nahid stood out as the most efficient ministers in the opinion poll. Both of them got 17 percent of the respondents' votes. Home Minister Sahara Khatun was second in place with a 10 percent voting. Next came Communication Minister Abul Hossain with a 4 percent rating.
However, it is notable that 40 percent of the respondents could not pick any ministers.
Success and weakness
The highest 30 percent respondents said law and order is the success point of the government in the last one and a half years. Next was fertilizer supply chosen by 23 percent respondents. Education came as third with a 18 percent vote, however, 24 percent could not pick any issue that they feel is the success point of the government.
When asked to name an area they think is the weak point of the government, 26 percent mentioned power supply, 23 percent law and order, 19 percent commodity price and 14 percent corruption.
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Case withdrawal
Respondents were asked to say freely what they think of the recent withdrawal of cases against political personalities. Some 35 percent said such withdrawal is happening to benefit the political leaders. Some 21 percent felt that the cases were filed illegally and so they are naturally withdrawn. A large number of people some 37 percent how did not have any comment.
Chhatra League
Bangladesh Chhatra League (BCL) still fared low in the opinion poll. Most of the respondents felt that BCL is destroying the reputation of the government.
When asked to say what they think of the student wing of the Awami League, 31 percent said they equate it with violence, looting, crimes and killings. Some 8 percent said it is involved in taking control of student halls and hostels. An equal percentage of respondents however think BCL had points to criticize in the past, but it is now moving in the positive direction. Another 12 percent felt that BCL is doing better. However 36 percent had no comment.
A large portion of the respondents -- 32 percent said the government must control BCL strictly. Some 14 percent said stern actions have to be taken against BCL since it resulted in deterioration of law and order. Some 13 percent say all student politics should be banned. Only 4 percent said there is nothing to worry about as everything will be okay soon. However, a large 39 percent could not say anything.
Some 40 percent of the respondents said BCL is ruining the reputation of the government. Another 12 percent said it is lowering the popularity of the government and 9 percent felt it is lowering people's support for the government. Only 7 percent felt that BCL is increasing the image of the government.
Govt-opposition relationship
Almost half of the respondents 48 percent exactly said the attitude that the government is showing to the opposition is natural. But 35 percent said the government is suppressive of the opposition.
Hartal
Respondents showed overwhelming opposition to resorting to hartal as a tool for political protest.When asked what they think about the hartal that the opposition called recently, 55 percent said hartal is no more acceptable now. Some 19 percent said hartal should be banned by law. But 11 percent felt hartal is a democratic right.
War crime trial
There was a large support for holding trial of war criminals. Some 28 percent said they are satisfied with the trial of war crime, 24 percent said it should be held in a transparent manner, 14 percent want proper initiative for trial, 13 percent want immediate trial of the war criminals. Some 12 percent however said they do not want trial to be held.
Constitution change
The move to change the constitution does not seem to make much sense for most respondents. A large 61 percent of respondents said they have no idea what to say about the amendment initiative. Only 22 percent said they think it is a good initiative. Eight percent such a move is not acceptable and another equal number said all political parties should be included in the amendment process.
Which party to vote for
The respondents were asked to mention which party they would vote for if an election is held right tomorrow. Some 41 percent said they would vote for the Awami League, 20 percent said they would vote for the BNP. Only 2 percent said they would vote for Jatiya party and Jamaat.
Political culture
The respondents were asked if they see any change in political culture. A huge 46 percent said they do see positive change. But 28 percent said they see a negative change in politics. Some 18 percent said they d not find any change.
The people seem to have regained their belief in the political system as a massive 72 percent said they do not expect old political practices like violence to return. But 28 percent said they still fear this.
Survey MethodologyThe present government is led by Bangladesh Awami League and its alliances (popularly known as 14 party-great alliance (“Mahajot”) has completed 1st year of their power on January 06, 2010. With a view to understand current scenario, the Daily Star and Nielsen Bangladesh jointly carried out an opinion poll in end December 2009.
The basic objective of the Daily Star-Nielsen Opinion Poll 2010 was to assess the people's opinion on their
performance after completion of 1 year. The survey assessed the current political scenario and public image of different political parties and leaders. The study explored the general perception on politics in Bangladesh according to gender, age group, urban-rural and different constitutional setting, socio-economic and geographic divisions.
To ensure that the sample properly represents all possible categories, respondents were selected from the following groups:Urban and rural areasMale and female populationAge 18 years and above
Study Design: The sample for the poll covered the entire population residing in private dwellings units in the country. Administratively, Bangladesh is divided into six divisions. In turn, each division is divided into districts, and each district into upazila. Each urban area in the municipality is divided into wards, and into mahallas within the ward. Each rural area in the upazila is divided into union parishad (UP) and into mouzas within UPs. Therefore, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were mouza in the rural areas and mohallah in the urban areas. From each PSU, required number of households and respondents were selected randomly. The list of mouzas and mohallas were procured from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Therefore, to capture overall picture of Bangladesh, the poll was carried out in 44 districts, covering all the 6 administrative divisions across Bangladesh.
A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at 3,050 based on statistical estimation, both from rural and urban areas. The split among these areas were based on national rural-urban population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was December 17-25, 2009.
The opinion survey strictly adhered to the internationally laid down methodology and ethical standard as per the guideline of ESOMAR (European Society for Opinion and Marketing Research) and standards of Nielsen Worldwide.
-Average age of respondents: 37 years, starting from 18
-Male-Female ratio: 50:50
-Literacy range: 70 percent literate, 30 percent not literate, but many can sign names
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for larger view
-Rural-urban ratio: 70:30
Performance of ministers
The respondents were asked to rate the ministers according to their performances. Surprisingly, 76 percent of them could not recall any minister's name. Of the remaining 24 percent, most mentioned Education Minister Nurul Islam Nahid as the top performer. Agriculture Minister Matia Chowdhury was in the second place followed by Foreign Minister Dr Dipu Moni, Food Minister Abdur Razzaque, and Finance Minister AMA Muhith.
Govt's performance: Still confident
The opinion poll shows 53 percent respondents are satisfied and 12 percent very satisfied with the performance of the government in the last one year. Together these two categories make up 65 percent of the respondents.
Against this, only 15 percent said they are dissatisfied and two percent very much dissatisfied. However, 16 percent said they are neither of these two, which actually shows a negative response for the government.
Rajshahi division respondents are most satisfied with the government while Sylhet people are the least satisfied. Dissatisfaction is the highest among Khulna residents and the least among Sylhet residents.
Matching with the above result, 62 percent respondents think that the country is heading in the right direction after a year. Only 19 percent said it is moving in the wrong direction, and 17 percent found no change.
Again people of Rajshahi were found to be more favourable to the government as 70 percent of them said they think the country is heading in the right direction. Among the people who think otherwise, the Khulna residents top the chart with 21 percent.
Opposition leader: Scores lowIn case of Khaleda Zia, 35 percent respondents are satisfied with her and four percent very much satisfied, combined a 39 percent looking at her performance as opposition leader favourably. On the other hand, 26 percent people said they are dissatisfied with Khaleda's performance, four percent very much dissatisfied, and 23 percent not disposed to either way, combined a total of 53 percent negative voting for her.
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Tackling law and order: PraisedThe government's efforts of maintaining law and order got high rating as 64 percent said they think the situation has improved. Only 15 percent think it has deteriorated while 18 percent find no change.Rajshahi respondents took positive view about law and order as 68 percent said they find the situation improved. The least number of Sylhet people find the situation praiseworthy with only 53 percent of the respondents praising the situation.
Economy: Room for improvementCompared to the above two issues, the government scored less on the question of economy. Only 50 percent said they find the economy good and progressing. But 16 percent said it is moving negatively and 22 percent found the economy not so much encouraging. Seven percent said they find no difference.Once again, the highest number of Rajshahi respondents have a favourable view of the economy (64 percent) while the highest number of Khulna respondents have the unfavourable view (21 percent).
Corruption perception brightAbout corruption, the respondents' reaction was mixed. A big 53 percent felt that corruption has decreased. Twenty two percent felt that it has increased while 18 percent thought it remains at its previous level. Only 7 percent said they have no idea about the level of corruption.However, when asked about their opinions about the state of the Anti-corruption Commission (ACC), a large 55 percent refrained from responding. This shows they have a negative view of the anti-graft organisation. Fifteen percent said it is controlled by the government, seven percent said it has lost its neutrality in the last one year and 20 percent said the ACC has been working properly.The respondents were also asked to name a sector where corruption is more prevalent. Fifteen percent pointed at land reform, showing the pressure on land and the lack of a proper land recording system. An equal 15 percent pointed at the judiciary, 13 percent said the police, and another 13 percent pointed at education. Eleven percent said they have no idea about the subject. Tax, banking, and electricity were found to be the least corrupt in public perception with 3 percent of the respondents finding corruption in these sectors.
Price inflation: Critical viewHowever, price inflation appears to be a thorny issue as 52 percent think the government has poorly managed the issue while 38 percent think it has been well managed.
Political culture: High hopesThe survey found that the majority of the respondents hold a better view of the political culture as 54 percent said they see a positive change. Twelve percent has a negative view while 19
percent said the political culture remains same as before. Fifteen percent said they have no idea about it.A very large number of respondents, 83 percent, are confident that old political practices such as hartals and street violence will not return, and only 17 percent holds a pessimistic outlook.
Power: Initiative seenIn the poll, 41 percent of respondents said the government took steps to resolve the power crisis.
And 24 percent saw no change; 24 percent said the initiatives decreased. The poll found that 11 percent answered: "Don't know."
Judiciary: Poor ratingAccording to poll results, 36 percent of respondents said the judiciary was free and independent; 28 percent found it "politically biased" and 36 percent said: "Don't know.”
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Issues that deserve attentionWhen respondents were asked to name one issue that they think the government should pay most attention to, 29 percent mentioned price inflation, and 23 percent felt the government has already taken initiative in that regard. The second highest area of concern was jointly occupied by job creation and poverty alleviation (9 percent each) followed by education (8 percent). Twenty one percent said steps have been taken to improve education and 19 percent found initiatives for job creation.
Some other issuesThe respondents were asked about their opinions on daylight saving programme and 34 percent said it was a good initiative of the government while 33 percent said it was not a good decision. Twenty five percent said it was a good thing, but it was time to revert back to the old clock (the questions were asked before the government's decision to readjust the clock on December 31).
A question was asked to take opinions on what the respondents think about changing names of establishments and organisations once a new government takes over. An overwhelming eighty one percent disapprove of the practice.Asked what is their view of political sycophancy, 87 percent voiced very harsh views against such practice and said it should be stopped.
Critical of opposition's roleThe role of the opposition in the last one year was seen by the respondents more critically than favourably. Moreover a large number of respondents said they want the opposition to join the parliament.
Thirty nine percent said they are dissatisfied by the opposition's negative role. Thirty percent find the opposition playing a positive role and are satisfied. Another 15 percent find the opposition's role remaining just as before. Eighteen percent said they have no idea, which in fact goes to the opposition's discredit. Chittagong people are the most satisfied with the opposition (41 percent), and Rajshahi and Sylhet residents are the least satisfied (21 percent each). On the other hand, Rajshahi people are the most dissatisfied (46 percent) with the opposition while Barisal residents are the least dissatisfied (19 percent).Seventy five percent respondents said they want the opposition to join the parliament and only four percent endorse the boycott. Twelve percent said they have no comment on the issue.
Critical of BCLThe respondents were asked what the government should do about Bangladesh Chhatra League in view of the organisation's recent violent activities on campuses, 31 percent said it must be controlled strictly, and 3 percent talked about stern actions. A large 51 percent said they have no idea about how to control BCL.But 62 percent respondents think the government is trying to stop violence in educational institutions. Twelve percent think the government has failed in this job while 1 percent think it will never succeed in the task. A large 25 percent said they have no idea about the government's role in this regard.
Strengths and weaknessesThe survey asked what the respondents consider to be the most successful and weak points of the government. On both counts law and order and price control came out at the top, which means that the government's success areas has been almost negated by a slightly lower percent of the respondents.Twenty six percent said law and order, and 19 percent said price control is the area of success. However, other segments of respondents found commodity price (16 percent) and law and order (12 percent) as not properly handled in the last one year.One interesting point that surfaced through these questions is that neither the government could showcase its successes properly nor the opposition highlighted the government's failures, as a large section of the respondents felt they have no idea about the government's successes and failures. Thirty nine percent said they have no clear idea about the government's successes, and 49 percent said the same about the weaknesses.
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100 days vs 1 year: A comparisonThe Daily Star-Nielsen conducted two surveys, one on 100-day performance of the government and the other on 1-year performance. Comparing between these two surveys, it is evident that the people's opinions have been changed in some of the critical areas. Moreover, the strong support that the government had enjoyed at the end of its 100 days appears to have eroded to some extent after completion of its one year as expected after a landslide victory.
Overall satisfactionAt the end of its 100 days, 62 percent of the respondents said they were satisfied with the government and 19 percent highly satisfied. Together they made up 81 percent. But after one year, 53 percent said they are satisfied and 12 percent very much. Together they make 65 percent.
Which directionAfter 100 days, 71 percent said they thought the country was on the right track while the current survey showed 62 percent people think so. In the last survey, 17 percent thought the country was heading in the wrong direction while after one year, that was marginally increased to 19 percent.
Law and order situationLaw and order was a weakness in the last survey but in this survey it appeared as a strong point of the government. Currently 64 percent of the respondents said the law and order situation improved, compared to 57 percent in the earlier survey.
Political cultureAn interesting upbeat note was seen among the respondents this time about their confidence in political practices. After the 100 days, 48 percent said they think old political practices such as hartal, violence, political killings and street agitation will not return, today 83 percent think so. Moreover, a year ago, 56 percent people saw a positive change in political culture. After a year, today that confidence still continues as 54 percent now think so.
BCLThis is one area of concern for the government since its takeover a year ago, from the very first day. Although Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina took it very seriously, the situation has not improved significantly. The majority of the people said in both surveys that “Chhatra League activities should be strictly controlled”, “stern action should be taken” and “law and order situation has deteriorated due to them”.
EconomyConsidering public perceptions about the economy after the 100 days, 59 percent respondents said the economy was doing positively which -- after a year -- declined to 50 percent.
Price inflationThe government's rating on inflation also slipped over the year. Managing prices to a lower level was a major electoral pledge of the AL-led grand alliance and many thought that it worked for its victory in elections. After its 100 days, 74 percent said the government had well-managed inflation. But after its first year, only 38 percent think so. In the last survey 20 percent said they were dissatisfied with the government's measures to tackle inflation. Today 52 percent are dissatisfied.
CorruptionOne area where the government could hold the fort is the corruption perception which remains the same in both surveys. After 100 days 54 percent respondents said they thought corruption had decreased. After a year, 53 percent still think so.
Opposition's ratingThe opposition's rating remained almost static from the previous survey. After the first 100 days of the new government, 33 percent said they were satisfied with the opposition role, which is 30 percent now.After 100 days, 32 percent were dissatisfied with the opposition's negative role, which has increased to 39 percent. In response to another question, 75 percent of the respondents said the “opposition should attend the parliament first”.
Survey MethodologyThe present government led by the Awami League and its alliances (popularly known as 14-party great alliance or “Mahjot”) completed its 2nd year in power on January 05, 2011. With a view to understanding people's perception about the government's performance, The Daily Star and Nielsen Bangladesh jointly carried out an opinion poll in end December, 2010.
The survey explored the general perception on politics according to gender, age group, urban-rural and different constitutional settings, socio-economic and geographic divisions.
To ensure that the sample properly represents all possible categories, respondents were selected from the following groups:
* Urban and rural areas,* Male and female population,* and age 18 years and above
Study Design: The sample for the poll covered the entire population residing in private dwelling units. Administratively Bangladesh is divided into seven divisions. In turn, each division is divided into districts, and each district into upazilas. Each urban area in the municipality is divided into wards, and into mahallas within the wards. Each rural area in the upazila is divided into union parishads (UP) and into mouzas within UPs. Therefore, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were mouza in the rural areas and mohallah in the urban areas. From each PSU, required number of households and respondents were selected randomly. The list of mouzas and mohallas were procured from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Therefore, to capture overall picture of Bangladesh, the poll was carried out in 44 districts, covering all the 7 administrative divisions across Bangladesh.
A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at 2,520 based on statistical estimation, both from rural and urban areas. The split among these areas was based
Click on the image for larger view
on national rural-urban population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was December 12-22, 2010.
The opinion survey strictly adhered to the internationally laid down methodology and ethical standards as per the guideline of Nielsen Worldwide.
Demographic profile of the respondents:- Average age of respondents: 36 years, starting from 18- Male-Female ratio: 50:50- Literacy range: 73 percent literate, 27 percent not literate, but many can sign names- Rural-urban ratio: 70:30
In which direction is the country heading ?At the end of two years, popular perception is divided between those who think the country is moving in the right direction and those who think the opposite. The poll showed 51 percent approved the way it is being run with a strong 31 percent feeling that the country is moving in the wrong direction. This contrasts dramatically with 71 percent thinking it was going in the right direction at the beginning of the govt's tenure, which dropped to 62 percent a year later and now it is 51 percent.
An interesting thing to note here is that in our one-and-a-half yearly survey six months ago 50 percent said they think the country was going in the right direction. So in the last six months, this opinion remained almost static. On the other hand, more people now think the country is heading in the wrong direction. Two years ago, it was 17 percent, one year later it was 19 percent, one and a half year later it was 34 percent and now it is 31 percent. However, in the last six months the negative view decreased by 3 percentage points.
Interestingly there seems to be a rural-urban divide on this issue. 54 percent rural people endorse the way the country is being run while 48 percent urban dwellers do that. Again, 54 percent males hold a better view compared with 47 percent women.
Popularity on decline After two years of the government, 36 percent respondents said they are satisfied with the performance of the government and another 12 percent very satisfied. 23 percent said they are dissatisfied and 6 percent very dissatisfied. A large 22 percent are neither satisfied nor dissatisfied.
This satisfaction level however declined over the last two years. After the first 100 days of the government, a huge 81 percent said they were satisfied with the government. Of them 62 percent were satisfied and 19 percent very satisfied. One year later, this number dropped to 53 percent. Two years after, 48 percent 36 percent satisfied and 12 percent very satisfied. But the number of dissatisfied respondents increased from zero percent two years ago to 14 percent one year ago to 23 percent now. Males and rural people are more satisfied with the government.
Dim view about economy …. People's perception about the economy slid over the two years despite the fact that the country very well tackled the world depression and its aftereffect. Some 39 percent of the respondents said the economy is moving positively after two years of the current government. 24 percent said it is not so much encouraging while 28 percent said it is leading to a bad situation.
After 100 days of the government, 59 percent people found good indications in economy and had a positive view, which dipped to 50 percent after one year. After two years, it further slid to 40 percent. However the number of people finding the economy not so encouraging remain static at 24 percent. But more people now think bad times are ahead as their percentage rose from 13 percent two years back to 28 percent now. Interestingly, rural people and males take a much better view of the economy than the urban and female population.
And inflation may be a reason for that dim view Less and less people are now satisfied with the government's handling of inflation as prices of essentials spiral. This is in fact one of the most basic and pervasive things that touch people across the board. Within 100 days of the government's coming to power, 74 percent people said the issue of price inflation was well managed and that they were satisfied. One year later, the number dramatically dropped to 38 percent, and two years after it further slid to 25 percent. Concurrently, the number of people who think price inflation was not well managed increased from 20 percent when the government came to power to 52 percent after one year and to 61 percent now. Thirteen percent people find no change in the situation after two years of the government compared with 5 percent two years ago, and 9 percent one year ago. Female respondents and urban dwellers are more dissatisfied with the price situation.
Similarly, a large 61 percent are unhappy about the government's performance in controlling essential commodity prices. Forty seven percent of them said they are dissatisfied with the situation while 14 percent said they are very dissatisfied. Only 19 percent found the situation satisfactory.
Issue of attention Although a large segment (26 percent) think the government took steps to fight price inflation, most respondents still think tackling price inflation should be the government's top priority. In fact, from 29 percent two years back to 38 percent now think it should be the priority. More people, than two years ago, think power and gas should be priorities. However, only six months
ago, 23 percent said power and gas needs the government's greatest attention. Now only 9 percent think so, showing that the recent flurry of activities to augment power generation have been well received by the people. But in another question, respondents rated the government's power initiatives low. More people than ever think education should be a priority (9 percent after 100 days, 8 percent after 1 year, 15 percent after 2 years). In fact, the highest 51 percent now think the government has taken steps in education and yet 15 percent said education still needs the government's highest priority. They put education above power, corruption, and law and order issues. This shows that people can feel the importance of education for development.
Weak points of the government People were asked to identify the weak points of the government in two years. The highest 22 percent named corruption followed by law and order and inflation (17 percent both), and Bangladesh Chhatra League's activities (13 percent).
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PowerPower remains a weak spot of the government as more people now think not enough has been done to alleviate the power crisis. When the government completed its first year, 41 percent thought enough initiatives had been taken. Two years after, 38 percent think so. On the other hand, 24 percent then thought initiatives had not been taken, today 29 percent think so. Back then 24 percent found the initiatives not enough and today 29 percent think so. Males and urban dwellers gave the government good scores on power.
Slide in graft perception People who think corruption decreased after two years have outnumbered those who think it increased. The survey showed 47 percent respondents think graft decreased against 31 percent who think it increased. 19 percent think it remains as before.
However, when compared with the previous three polls, it was found that more people now think that corruption increased over the last two years while a lesser
number of people think it decreased. One year ago, 22 percent thought corruption increased and now they are 31 percent. A lesser percentage of people think corruption decreased. One year ago, 54 percent thought corruption decreased and now they are 47 percent. Females were found to be especially critical about the corruption situation as 34 percent of them against 27 percent of the males thought graft increased.
At the same time, more people have a negative impression about the Anti-corruption Commission. Some 51 percent said they think ACC is controlled by the government while 22 percent think it lost its neutrality. Only 10 percent think it is working properly.
Majority still happy with law and order The majority of respondents are happy with the law and order situation as they were two years ago. When the government crossed its first 100 days, 57 percent thought the law and order situation had improved, two years down the lane 55 percent still think so. More people were happy about law and order one year ago, as 64 percent back then said they found an improvement. Rural people gave a better rating to law and order situation.
Judiciary Two years after the government was formed, 40 percent think that the judiciary is not politically neutral while an equal percentage think it is free and independent.
More people now think the judiciary is not politically neutral than two years ago. When the government was 100-day old, 32 percent thought the judiciary was not politically neutral. That number dipped to 28 percent after one year. But now 40 percent think so. However, in the last
six months, people's perception about the judiciary improved as 47 percent back then thought the judiciary was politically biased.
Two years ago 41 percent thought the judiciary to be free and independent. A year later 36 percent said so, and now 40 percent think so.
View on political culture/ violence Two years after this government came to power, 42 percent still see a positive change in the political culture, while 29 percent find negative change. Some 24 percent find the political culture as before.
But people's positive perception about a change in the political culture has diminished over the past two years when compared with the previous surveys. One hundred days after the government's takeover, 56 percent said they found a positive change in the political culture. After one year, 54 percent said so. Two years down the line, 42 percent hold that view. At the same time, those, who think negatively about the political culture, have increased from 14 percent two years back to 29 percent now. Twenty four percent now feel that the political culture remains as before, against 21 percent two years ago.
When asked if old political practice of violence is coming back, 74 percent said “No” showing a big trust in democracy. Only 26 percent said “Yes”.
Hasina's popularity still high but decliningOver a half of the respondents (53 percent) are still satisfied with the performance of Sheikh Hasina as the prime minister. However, her rating dropped quite a bit in the last two years. When Hasina became the prime minister, a huge 81 percent said they were happy with her (62 percent satisfied and 19 percent very much satisfied). A year later, 72 percent said so (53 percent satisfied and 19 percent very much satisfied). One and a half years later this rating went further down to 63 percent. Two years down the line she holds a satisfaction rating of 53 percent (37 percent satisfied and 16 percent very much satisfied). Once again, males and urban people gave Hasina a better rating.
Khaleda's popularity suffers tooKhaleda Zia's popularity also suffered over the two years and went through a topsy-turvy curve. Two years ago, 33 percent said they were satisfied with her performance. A year later, her popularity improved to 39 percent (35 percent satisfied and 4 percent very much satisfied). One and a half years later, she gained even more popularity, hitting 41 percent (34 percent satisfied and 7 percent very much satisfied). But then her popularity drastically dipped to 30 percent after two years (26 percent satisfied and 4 percent very much satisfied). Females and the urban population were more satisfied with her performance.
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Opposition's politicsThe respondents were asked to comment how they view the politics of the opposition. While 30 percent think the opposition's role is negative, 28 percent think it is positive. This shows public perception about opposition politics is nearly evenly divided despite the fact that the opposition has been boycotting the parliament and calling hartals. Five percent said the opposition wants to increase social instability while 19 percent said it wants to grab power.
Govt's attitude towards opposition natural Majority respondents (52 percent) think the way the government is handling the opposition is something not unusual given our political culture. Eleven percent think such behaviour towards the opposition is needed to maintain law and order. However, a significant 27 percent feel that the government's role in this regard is suppressive. Since this question was asked for the first time, we do not have any comparative data.
Some current issues
Transit for India beneficial People were asked about their opinion on giving transit to India. A big 46 percent said they think it would benefit Bangladesh while 13 percent said it would serve India's interest. Another 9 percent said transit would hurt Bangladesh's interest. A big 29 percent said they do not know whether it would serve Bangladesh or India.
Do not resign from JS After Khaleda was evicted from her cantonment residence, there was a process inside BNP to resign from the parliament en masse. So people's opinion was sought about such a move. An overwhelming 78 percent thought it would be a wrong decision. Only 10 percent thought it would be a good move.
No to hartal BNP enforced another hartal on November 30 last year to protest eviction of Khaleda from her cantonment house. We asked respondents what they think of such political programmes. An overwhelming 85 percent rejected hartal. Thirty percent said hartal should be banned by law. Only 9 percent thought it is a democratic right. However, when respondents were asked to comment whether they generally accept hartal as a political programme, 95 percent said, "No".
Threat to overthrow govt wrong posture Recently, BNP called for overthrowing the government immediately. We asked respondents how they react to such a call. A huge 83 percent said this is a wrong decision by BNP. Only 10 percent said it is a good decision.
AL to get more votesWe asked respondents which party they would vote for if there was an election tomorrow. Awami League came out the winner with 39 percent saying they would pick AL. BNP got 22 percent votes.
Survey Methodology
This year The Daily Star engaged Centre for Strategic Research (CSR) to collect data on behalf of the newspaper as Nielsen Bangladesh, which was the opinion poll partner since its start, was unable to accommodate our assignment due to workload. CSR followed the same international
methodology that Nielsen followed and the data was collected from the same areas under strict supervision.
The objective of the Daily Star Opinion Poll 2011 was to assess the current political scenario and public image of different political parties and leaders. The study explored the general perception on politics in Bangladesh according to gender, age group, urban-rural and different constitutional setting, socio-economic and geographic divisions. It was also investigated people's perception and views about the upcoming national parliamentary election.
To ensure that the sample properly represents all possible categories, respondents were selected from the following groups:
* Urban and rural areas* Male and female population* Age 18 years and above
Study Design: The sample for the poll covered the entire population residing in private dwellings units in the country. Administratively, Bangladesh is divided into six divisions. In turn, each division is divided into districts, and each district into upazila. Each urban area in the municipality is divided into wards, and into mahallas within the ward. Each rural area in the upazila is divided into union parishad (UP) and into mouzas within UPs. Therefore, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were mouza in the rural areas and mohallah in the urban areas. From each PSU, required number of households and respondents were selected randomly. The list of mouzas and mohallas were procured from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Therefore, to capture overall picture of Bangladesh, the poll was carried out in 44 districts, covering all the 7 administrative divisions across Bangladesh.
A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at around 2,520 based on statistical estimation, both from rural and urban areas. The split among these areas were based on national rural-urban population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was December 2011
.
Right or wrong direction?
Click on the image for larger view
The past one year has made quite an impact on popular perception about how the country is being run. A dramatic reversal in perception was noticed as the people thinking that the country is moving in the wrong direction outnumbered those thinking it is moving in the right direction. Of the respondents, 45.1 percent now think the country is going in the wrong direction as against only 31 percent a year ago. On the other hand, 40.5 percent said this time that the country is moving in the right direction against 51 percent last year. This clearly shows people’s negative perception about governance has deepened.
View on economy dims further
Quite a large number of people are now thinking that the economy is not doing well. This year, 38.5 percent people said they think the economy is doing bad and will lead to a worse situation. Last year, 28 percent thought so. Moreover, those who do not see much encouraging signs in economy remain static at 24.4 percent.
On the other hand, a fewer number of people now think the economy is doing well from last year. 31.3 percent said they see good indications in the economy against 39 percent last year.
Popularity declines further
Last year, it was found that the government's popularity had declined. This year's result shows popularity has declined even further.
43 percent people said they are either dissatisfied or very much dissatisfied with the performance of the government. This is much higher than last year's 29 percent. On the other hand, less people now think favourably about the government from last year. While this year 38.6
percent said they are either very satisfied or satisfied with the government, last year a huge 48 percent said so.
Inflation remains a worry
People are still not satisfied by the way inflation has been addressed. 62 percent said they are dissatisfied by the way the government has addressed the issue of inflation.
Last year, it was 61 percent.
On the other hand, 26.1 percent said they are satisfied with measures on inflation against last year's 25 percent.
People are fearful of confrontational politics
When this government came to power, people's expectation about politics was high as they saw a positive chance in political culture. Now three years down the line, their perception has changed quite a lot as only 29.6 percent say they see any positive change in politics against last year's 42 percent. On the other hand, more people now take a negative view of politics (40.5 percent) than last year (29 percent).
Not only that, more people now fear (32.9 percent) that politics of violence is coming back than last year (26 percent). 80 percent feel that politics of killing is coming back and over 50 percent expect hartal and extortions to increase.
The way the government has handled the opposition over the last one year has also been reflected in the survey as a large number of respondents (45.4 percent) now think that the government has been suppressive as against last year's 27 percent.
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Top agenda
Inflation, corruption and education are the three top issues that the voters think the government should pay highest attention. Interestingly, the number of those who think fighting corruption should be the top agenda has almost doubled from last year.
However, despite the prevailing high inflation rate, 27 percent said it needs the greatest attention of the government against last year's 38 percent.
When asked what are the areas that the government has already taken actions in, the highest 42.8 percent said they see steps taken in education followed by power (21 percent), trial of war criminals (18.1 percent) and corruption (16.6 percent).
Law and order
For the first time, the people's perception about the law and order situation has dipped. 32.9 percent think the situation has deteriorated over the year as against only 20 percent last year.
On the other hand, fewer people now think favourably about the law and order as 41.2 percent think the situation has improved as against 55 percent last year.
Also 28.2 percent said law and order is the weakest point of the government, putting it in the third place of weaknesses.
Judiciary is more politically biased
People's perception about the judiciary has dipped over the past year as more people think it is politically influenced. Last year, 40 percent said they think judiciary is politically biased and this year 53.2 percent think so.
Again, less people now think judiciary is free and independent with a 32.1 percent saying so against last year's 40 percent.
People appreciate power initiatives
More people now appreciate initiatives to improve power supply and less people are critical about it. This is reflective of the government's crash programme on power. Last year, 38 percent felt that enough initiatives have been taken on power sector. This year, this number has gone up to 42 percent. On the other hand, last year 29 percent viewed that initiatives had not been taken and this year this number has gone down to 22.7 percent.
Graft perception dips too
More people are now concerned about corruption. 45 percent of the respondents feel that corruption has increased over the year against 31 percent last year. Correspondingly less people now think graft has decreased. Last year, 47 percent felt that corruption has decreased, this year the figure has shrunk to only 34.5 percent.
Half the respondents think that the grassroots workers of the AL are involved in corruption.
Despite such high perception, only 23.7 percent said they had personally experienced graft. The highest number of them said they faced corruption with police.
Interestingly, in the past one year, people's perception about the Anti-corruption Commission has improved. 36 percent now think it is controlled by the government against last year's 51 percent. 26.7 percent think it is working properly against last year's paltry 10 percent.
Opposition shed negative image
The BNP and its allies have quite impressively shed their negative image in politics. Last year, 30 percent had a negative view about the opposition politics. This time, only 20 percent said so. On the other hand, the number of people who hold a positive view about their politics remained static.
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Hasina's popularity declines drastically
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's popularity rating suffered hugely in the last one year in continuation of last year's popularity curve.
Last year, over half the respondents (53 percent) said they are satisfied with her performance. This year, only 39.4 percent said so. When she became prime minister three years ago, her approval rating was as high as 81 percent. So in three years, this is a huge decline in popularity.
The number of people who are dissatisfied with her is also much higher this year (42.1 percent) than last year (27 percent).
Khaleda's popularity static
Leader of the opposition Khaleda Zia however has maintained a static popularity rating.
Last year, 30 percent respondents said they are happy with her performance. This year the figure is similar at 30.3 percent.
However, she has been able to reduce the negative sentiment of the respondents from 35 percent last year to 30.6 percent this year.
AL, BNP back to their core vote bank
Last year, when we asked people which party they would vote for if there is an election tomorrow, it was found that AL was the choice of majority of the respondents (39 percent) and it was far ahead of the BNP (22 percent). This time it was found that AL's chance of winning the election remains static at 39.7 percent. However BNP has dramatically regained its position to close the gap with the AL as 36.8 percent voters said they would vote for BNP. Jatiya Party has also done better with 5.8 percent voting for it from last year's 4 percent. Jamaat remained almost static wth 2.1 percent against last year's 2 percent. If the alliances are taken into consideration, then the AL-Jaatiya Party alliance would bag 42.6 percent votes while BNP-Jamaat would bag 38.9 percent votes.
People want caretaker government system
A large 73.9 percent people said they do not support cancellation of the caretaker government system and a similarly large number of the respondents think it is not possible to hold free and fair elections without a caretaker government.
Only a small 6.2 percent said they have no idea if free elections are possible without a caretaker government.
Success and weak points of the government
The respondents identified trial of war criminals as the top success point with a 29.7 percent rating. Fertiliser supply came in second place with a 25 percent vote followed by power generation (19 percent) and education (16.9 percent).
On the other hand, most respondents identified corruption (29.9 percent) as the weakest point followed by share market (29.4 percent) and law and order situation (28.2 percent).
AL, BNP's acceptance rating
People who think that AL's public acceptance as a party has gone down outnumber those who think otherwise. But the case is quite opposite in case of the BNP.
53 percent of the respondents feel that AL's public acceptance has decreased while only 28.5 percent it has increased. In case of the BNP, 44.3 percent think its public acceptance has gone up while 28.2 percent think it has decreased.
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BNP politics
BNP's parliament boycott wrong move
The respondents overwhelmingly rejected the politics of parliament boycott when in opposition. An overwhelming 77.5 percent said they do not support parliament boycott by the BNP and only 15.1 percent said they think it is a good decision.
Politics for people?
Respondents were almost equally divided about whether the BNP has been doing politics on people's issues. 44.8 percent said it is pursuing issues that matter to people while 40 percent said it is not.
Political focus
Almost 50 percent of the respondents think BNP has been trying to get back its lost image and 22.2 percent think it is fighting for people's causes. But 18.3 percent also said the party focus is to rehabilitate Tarique Rahman in politics.
Narayanganj experience
Voters feel the Narayanganj City Corporation election was an eye-opener for everybody. 53 percent said the election result has proven that a party will lose if honest candidates are not filed. 19 percent feel the result has shown that a fair election is possible without army deployment. A large 21 percent however did not respond to the question.
Relationship with India
Majority people think that Bangladesh's relationship with India has progressed although a large number of them are highly critical of India for non-signing of the Teesta water treaty and the dam initiative on Tipai river.
Almost half the respondents said they think Bangladesh-India relationship has progressed and 34.5 percent think it has not.
44.7 percent think Bangladesh cannot trust India because of the non-signing of the Teesta treaty. However, 27.7 percent think the treaty will come to reality soon.
Again, 53 percent feel that it was a breach of trust by India to go ahead with the Tipai Mukh dam. Almost half the respondents think that the government has been bargaining enough with India to secure its interest. 38.9 percent also support giving transit to India but 35 percent are against it.
Back
Govt's Three-Year Performance Rating
Survey Methodology
This year The Daily Star engaged Centre for Strategic Research (CSR) to collect data on behalf of the newspaper as Nielsen Bangladesh, which was the opinion poll partner since its start, was unable to accommodate our assignment due to workload. CSR followed the same international methodology that Nielsen followed and the data was collected from the same areas under strict supervision.
The objective of the Daily Star Opinion Poll 2011 was to assess the current political scenario and public image of different political parties and leaders. The study explored the general perception on politics in Bangladesh according to gender, age group, urban-rural and different constitutional setting, socio-economic and geographic divisions. It was also investigated people's perception and views about the upcoming national parliamentary election.
To ensure that the sample properly represents all possible categories, respondents were selected from the following groups:
* Urban and rural areas* Male and female population* Age 18 years and above
Study Design: The sample for the poll covered the entire population residing in private dwellings units in the country. Administratively, Bangladesh is divided into six divisions. In turn, each division is divided into districts, and each district into upazila. Each urban area in the
Click on the image for larger view
municipality is divided into wards, and into mahallas within the ward. Each rural area in the upazila is divided into union parishad (UP) and into mouzas within UPs. Therefore, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were mouza in the rural areas and mohallah in the urban areas. From each PSU, required number of households and respondents were selected randomly. The list of mouzas and mohallas were procured from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Therefore, to capture overall picture of Bangladesh, the poll was carried out in 44 districts, covering all the 7 administrative divisions across Bangladesh.
A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at around 2,520 based on statistical estimation, both from rural and urban areas. The split among these areas were based on national rural-urban population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was December 2011
.
Right or wrong direction?
The past one year has made quite an impact on popular perception about how the country is being run. A dramatic reversal in perception was noticed as the people thinking that the country is moving in the wrong direction outnumbered those thinking it is moving in the right direction. Of the respondents, 45.1 percent now think the country is going in the wrong direction as against only 31 percent a year ago. On the other hand, 40.5 percent said this time that the country is moving in the right direction against 51 percent last year. This clearly shows people’s negative perception about governance has deepened.
View on economy dims further
Quite a large number of people are now thinking that the economy is not doing well. This year, 38.5 percent people said they think the economy is doing bad and will lead to a worse situation. Last year, 28 percent thought so. Moreover, those who do not see much encouraging signs in economy remain static at 24.4 percent.
On the other hand, a fewer number of people now think the economy is doing well from last year. 31.3 percent said they see good indications in the economy against 39 percent last year.
Popularity declines further
Last year, it was found that the government's popularity had declined. This year's result shows popularity has declined even further.
43 percent people said they are either dissatisfied or very much dissatisfied with the performance of the government. This is much higher than last year's 29 percent. On the other hand, less people now think favourably about the government from last year. While this year 38.6
percent said they are either very satisfied or satisfied with the government, last year a huge 48 percent said so.
Inflation remains a worry
People are still not satisfied by the way inflation has been addressed. 62 percent said they are dissatisfied by the way the government has addressed the issue of inflation.
Last year, it was 61 percent.
On the other hand, 26.1 percent said they are satisfied with measures on inflation against last year's 25 percent.
People are fearful of confrontational politics
When this government came to power, people's expectation about politics was high as they saw a positive chance in political culture. Now three years down the line, their perception has changed quite a lot as only 29.6 percent say they see any positive change in politics against last year's 42 percent. On the other hand, more people now take a negative view of politics (40.5 percent) than last year (29 percent).
Not only that, more people now fear (32.9 percent) that politics of violence is coming back than last year (26 percent). 80 percent feel that politics of killing is coming back and over 50 percent expect hartal and extortions to increase.
The way the government has handled the opposition over the last one year has also been reflected in the survey as a large number of respondents (45.4 percent) now think that the government has been suppressive as against last year's 27 percent.
Continue
Top agenda
Inflation, corruption and education are the three top issues that the voters think the government should pay highest attention. Interestingly, the number of those who think fighting corruption should be the top agenda has almost doubled from last year.
However, despite the prevailing high inflation rate, 27 percent said it needs the greatest attention of the government against last year's 38 percent.
When asked what are the areas that the government has already taken actions in, the highest 42.8 percent said they see steps taken in education followed by power (21 percent), trial of war criminals (18.1 percent) and corruption (16.6 percent).
Law and order
For the first time, the people's perception about the law and order situation has dipped. 32.9 percent think the situation has deteriorated over the year as against only 20 percent last year.
On the other hand, fewer people now think favourably about the law and order as 41.2 percent think the situation has improved as against 55 percent last year.
Also 28.2 percent said law and order is the weakest point of the government, putting it in the third place of weaknesses.
Judiciary is more politically biased
People's perception about the judiciary has dipped over the past year as more people think it is politically influenced. Last year, 40 percent said they think judiciary is politically biased and this year 53.2 percent think so.
Again, less people now think judiciary is free and independent with a 32.1 percent saying so against last year's 40 percent.
People appreciate power initiatives
More people now appreciate initiatives to improve power supply and less people are critical about it. This is reflective of the government's crash programme on power. Last year, 38 percent felt that enough initiatives have been taken on power sector. This year, this number has gone up to 42 percent. On the other hand, last year 29 percent viewed that initiatives had not been taken and this year this number has gone down to 22.7 percent.
Graft perception dips too
More people are now concerned about corruption. 45 percent of the respondents feel that corruption has increased over the year against 31 percent last year. Correspondingly less people now think graft has decreased. Last year, 47 percent felt that corruption has decreased, this year the figure has shrunk to only 34.5 percent.
Half the respondents think that the grassroots workers of the AL are involved in corruption.
Despite such high perception, only 23.7 percent said they had personally experienced graft. The highest number of them said they faced corruption with police.
Interestingly, in the past one year, people's perception about the Anti-corruption Commission has improved. 36 percent now think it is controlled by the government against last year's 51 percent. 26.7 percent think it is working properly against last year's paltry 10 percent.
Opposition shed negative image
The BNP and its allies have quite impressively shed their negative image in politics. Last year, 30 percent had a negative view about the opposition politics. This time, only 20 percent said so. On the other hand, the number of people who hold a positive view about their politics remained static.
Continue
Hasina's popularity declines drastically
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's popularity rating suffered hugely in the last one year in continuation of last year's popularity curve.
Last year, over half the respondents (53 percent) said they are satisfied with her performance. This year, only 39.4 percent said so. When she became prime minister three years ago, her approval rating was as high as 81 percent. So in three years, this is a huge decline in popularity.
The number of people who are dissatisfied with her is also much higher this year (42.1 percent) than last year (27 percent).
Khaleda's popularity static
Leader of the opposition Khaleda Zia however has maintained a static popularity rating.
Last year, 30 percent respondents said they are happy with her performance. This year the figure is similar at 30.3 percent.
However, she has been able to reduce the negative sentiment of the respondents from 35 percent last year to 30.6 percent this year.
AL, BNP back to their core vote bank
Last year, when we asked people which party they would vote for if there is an election tomorrow, it was found that AL was the choice of majority of the respondents (39 percent) and it was far ahead of the BNP (22 percent). This time it was found that AL's chance of winning the election remains static at 39.7 percent. However BNP has dramatically regained its position to close the gap with the AL as 36.8 percent voters said they would vote for BNP. Jatiya Party has also done better with 5.8 percent voting for it from last year's 4 percent. Jamaat remained almost static wth 2.1 percent against last year's 2 percent. If the alliances are taken into consideration, then the AL-Jaatiya Party alliance would bag 42.6 percent votes while BNP-Jamaat would bag 38.9 percent votes.
People want caretaker government system
A large 73.9 percent people said they do not support cancellation of the caretaker government system and a similarly large number of the respondents think it is not possible to hold free and fair elections without a caretaker government.
Only a small 6.2 percent said they have no idea if free elections are possible without a caretaker government.
Success and weak points of the government
The respondents identified trial of war criminals as the top success point with a 29.7 percent rating. Fertiliser supply came in second place with a 25 percent vote followed by power generation (19 percent) and education (16.9 percent).
On the other hand, most respondents identified corruption (29.9 percent) as the weakest point followed by share market (29.4 percent) and law and order situation (28.2 percent).
AL, BNP's acceptance rating
People who think that AL's public acceptance as a party has gone down outnumber those who think otherwise. But the case is quite opposite in case of the BNP.
53 percent of the respondents feel that AL's public acceptance has decreased while only 28.5 percent it has increased. In case of the BNP, 44.3 percent think its public acceptance has gone up while 28.2 percent think it has decreased.
Continue
BNP politics
BNP's parliament boycott wrong move
The respondents overwhelmingly rejected the politics of parliament boycott when in opposition. An overwhelming 77.5 percent said they do not support parliament boycott by the BNP and only 15.1 percent said they think it is a good decision.
Politics for people?
Respondents were almost equally divided about whether the BNP has been doing politics on people's issues. 44.8 percent said it is pursuing issues that matter to people while 40 percent said it is not.
Political focus
Almost 50 percent of the respondents think BNP has been trying to get back its lost image and 22.2 percent think it is fighting for people's causes. But 18.3 percent also said the party focus is to rehabilitate Tarique Rahman in politics.
Narayanganj experience
Voters feel the Narayanganj City Corporation election was an eye-opener for everybody. 53 percent said the election result has proven that a party will lose if honest candidates are not filed. 19 percent feel the result has shown that a fair election is possible without army deployment. A large 21 percent however did not respond to the question.
Relationship with India
Majority people think that Bangladesh's relationship with India has progressed although a large number of them are highly critical of India for non-signing of the Teesta water treaty and the dam initiative on Tipai river.
Almost half the respondents said they think Bangladesh-India relationship has progressed and 34.5 percent think it has not.
44.7 percent think Bangladesh cannot trust India because of the non-signing of the Teesta treaty. However, 27.7 percent think the treaty will come to reality soon.
Again, 53 percent feel that it was a breach of trust by India to go ahead with the Tipai Mukh dam. Almost half the respondents think that the government has been bargaining enough with India to secure its interest. 38.9 percent also support giving transit to India but 35 percent are against it.
Back
Govt's Three-Year Performance Rating
Survey Methodology
This year The Daily Star engaged Centre for Strategic Research (CSR) to collect data on behalf of the newspaper as Nielsen Bangladesh, which was the opinion poll partner since its start, was unable to accommodate our assignment due to workload. CSR followed the same international methodology that Nielsen followed and the data was collected from the same areas under strict supervision.
The objective of the Daily Star Opinion Poll 2011 was to assess the current political scenario and public image of different political parties and leaders. The study explored the general perception on politics in Bangladesh according to gender, age group, urban-rural and different constitutional setting, socio-economic and geographic divisions. It was also investigated people's perception and views about the upcoming national parliamentary election.
To ensure that the sample properly represents all possible categories, respondents were selected from the following groups:
* Urban and rural areas* Male and female population* Age 18 years and above
Study Design: The sample for the poll covered the entire population residing in private dwellings units in the country. Administratively, Bangladesh is divided into six divisions. In turn, each division is divided into districts, and each district into upazila. Each urban area in the
Click on the image for larger view
municipality is divided into wards, and into mahallas within the ward. Each rural area in the upazila is divided into union parishad (UP) and into mouzas within UPs. Therefore, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were mouza in the rural areas and mohallah in the urban areas. From each PSU, required number of households and respondents were selected randomly. The list of mouzas and mohallas were procured from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Therefore, to capture overall picture of Bangladesh, the poll was carried out in 44 districts, covering all the 7 administrative divisions across Bangladesh.
A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at around 2,520 based on statistical estimation, both from rural and urban areas. The split among these areas were based on national rural-urban population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was December 2011
.
Right or wrong direction?
The past one year has made quite an impact on popular perception about how the country is being run. A dramatic reversal in perception was noticed as the people thinking that the country is moving in the wrong direction outnumbered those thinking it is moving in the right direction. Of the respondents, 45.1 percent now think the country is going in the wrong direction as against only 31 percent a year ago. On the other hand, 40.5 percent said this time that the country is moving in the right direction against 51 percent last year. This clearly shows people’s negative perception about governance has deepened.
View on economy dims further
Quite a large number of people are now thinking that the economy is not doing well. This year, 38.5 percent people said they think the economy is doing bad and will lead to a worse situation. Last year, 28 percent thought so. Moreover, those who do not see much encouraging signs in economy remain static at 24.4 percent.
On the other hand, a fewer number of people now think the economy is doing well from last year. 31.3 percent said they see good indications in the economy against 39 percent last year.
Popularity declines further
Last year, it was found that the government's popularity had declined. This year's result shows popularity has declined even further.
43 percent people said they are either dissatisfied or very much dissatisfied with the performance of the government. This is much higher than last year's 29 percent. On the other hand, less people now think favourably about the government from last year. While this year 38.6
percent said they are either very satisfied or satisfied with the government, last year a huge 48 percent said so.
Inflation remains a worry
People are still not satisfied by the way inflation has been addressed. 62 percent said they are dissatisfied by the way the government has addressed the issue of inflation.
Last year, it was 61 percent.
On the other hand, 26.1 percent said they are satisfied with measures on inflation against last year's 25 percent.
People are fearful of confrontational politics
When this government came to power, people's expectation about politics was high as they saw a positive chance in political culture. Now three years down the line, their perception has changed quite a lot as only 29.6 percent say they see any positive change in politics against last year's 42 percent. On the other hand, more people now take a negative view of politics (40.5 percent) than last year (29 percent).
Not only that, more people now fear (32.9 percent) that politics of violence is coming back than last year (26 percent). 80 percent feel that politics of killing is coming back and over 50 percent expect hartal and extortions to increase.
The way the government has handled the opposition over the last one year has also been reflected in the survey as a large number of respondents (45.4 percent) now think that the government has been suppressive as against last year's 27 percent.
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Top agenda
Inflation, corruption and education are the three top issues that the voters think the government should pay highest attention. Interestingly, the number of those who think fighting corruption should be the top agenda has almost doubled from last year.
However, despite the prevailing high inflation rate, 27 percent said it needs the greatest attention of the government against last year's 38 percent.
When asked what are the areas that the government has already taken actions in, the highest 42.8 percent said they see steps taken in education followed by power (21 percent), trial of war criminals (18.1 percent) and corruption (16.6 percent).
Law and order
For the first time, the people's perception about the law and order situation has dipped. 32.9 percent think the situation has deteriorated over the year as against only 20 percent last year.
On the other hand, fewer people now think favourably about the law and order as 41.2 percent think the situation has improved as against 55 percent last year.
Also 28.2 percent said law and order is the weakest point of the government, putting it in the third place of weaknesses.
Judiciary is more politically biased
People's perception about the judiciary has dipped over the past year as more people think it is politically influenced. Last year, 40 percent said they think judiciary is politically biased and this year 53.2 percent think so.
Again, less people now think judiciary is free and independent with a 32.1 percent saying so against last year's 40 percent.
People appreciate power initiatives
More people now appreciate initiatives to improve power supply and less people are critical about it. This is reflective of the government's crash programme on power. Last year, 38 percent felt that enough initiatives have been taken on power sector. This year, this number has gone up to 42 percent. On the other hand, last year 29 percent viewed that initiatives had not been taken and this year this number has gone down to 22.7 percent.
Graft perception dips too
More people are now concerned about corruption. 45 percent of the respondents feel that corruption has increased over the year against 31 percent last year. Correspondingly less people now think graft has decreased. Last year, 47 percent felt that corruption has decreased, this year the figure has shrunk to only 34.5 percent.
Half the respondents think that the grassroots workers of the AL are involved in corruption.
Despite such high perception, only 23.7 percent said they had personally experienced graft. The highest number of them said they faced corruption with police.
Interestingly, in the past one year, people's perception about the Anti-corruption Commission has improved. 36 percent now think it is controlled by the government against last year's 51 percent. 26.7 percent think it is working properly against last year's paltry 10 percent.
Opposition shed negative image
The BNP and its allies have quite impressively shed their negative image in politics. Last year, 30 percent had a negative view about the opposition politics. This time, only 20 percent said so. On the other hand, the number of people who hold a positive view about their politics remained static.
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Hasina's popularity declines drastically
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's popularity rating suffered hugely in the last one year in continuation of last year's popularity curve.
Last year, over half the respondents (53 percent) said they are satisfied with her performance. This year, only 39.4 percent said so. When she became prime minister three years ago, her approval rating was as high as 81 percent. So in three years, this is a huge decline in popularity.
The number of people who are dissatisfied with her is also much higher this year (42.1 percent) than last year (27 percent).
Khaleda's popularity static
Leader of the opposition Khaleda Zia however has maintained a static popularity rating.
Last year, 30 percent respondents said they are happy with her performance. This year the figure is similar at 30.3 percent.
However, she has been able to reduce the negative sentiment of the respondents from 35 percent last year to 30.6 percent this year.
AL, BNP back to their core vote bank
Last year, when we asked people which party they would vote for if there is an election tomorrow, it was found that AL was the choice of majority of the respondents (39 percent) and it was far ahead of the BNP (22 percent). This time it was found that AL's chance of winning the election remains static at 39.7 percent. However BNP has dramatically regained its position to close the gap with the AL as 36.8 percent voters said they would vote for BNP. Jatiya Party has also done better with 5.8 percent voting for it from last year's 4 percent. Jamaat remained almost static wth 2.1 percent against last year's 2 percent. If the alliances are taken into consideration, then the AL-Jaatiya Party alliance would bag 42.6 percent votes while BNP-Jamaat would bag 38.9 percent votes.
People want caretaker government system
A large 73.9 percent people said they do not support cancellation of the caretaker government system and a similarly large number of the respondents think it is not possible to hold free and fair elections without a caretaker government.
Only a small 6.2 percent said they have no idea if free elections are possible without a caretaker government.
Success and weak points of the government
The respondents identified trial of war criminals as the top success point with a 29.7 percent rating. Fertiliser supply came in second place with a 25 percent vote followed by power generation (19 percent) and education (16.9 percent).
On the other hand, most respondents identified corruption (29.9 percent) as the weakest point followed by share market (29.4 percent) and law and order situation (28.2 percent).
AL, BNP's acceptance rating
People who think that AL's public acceptance as a party has gone down outnumber those who think otherwise. But the case is quite opposite in case of the BNP.
53 percent of the respondents feel that AL's public acceptance has decreased while only 28.5 percent it has increased. In case of the BNP, 44.3 percent think its public acceptance has gone up while 28.2 percent think it has decreased.
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BNP politics
BNP's parliament boycott wrong move
The respondents overwhelmingly rejected the politics of parliament boycott when in opposition. An overwhelming 77.5 percent said they do not support parliament boycott by the BNP and only 15.1 percent said they think it is a good decision.
Politics for people?
Respondents were almost equally divided about whether the BNP has been doing politics on people's issues. 44.8 percent said it is pursuing issues that matter to people while 40 percent said it is not.
Political focus
Almost 50 percent of the respondents think BNP has been trying to get back its lost image and 22.2 percent think it is fighting for people's causes. But 18.3 percent also said the party focus is to rehabilitate Tarique Rahman in politics.
Narayanganj experience
Voters feel the Narayanganj City Corporation election was an eye-opener for everybody. 53 percent said the election result has proven that a party will lose if honest candidates are not filed. 19 percent feel the result has shown that a fair election is possible without army deployment. A large 21 percent however did not respond to the question.
Relationship with India
Majority people think that Bangladesh's relationship with India has progressed although a large number of them are highly critical of India for non-signing of the Teesta water treaty and the dam initiative on Tipai river.
Almost half the respondents said they think Bangladesh-India relationship has progressed and 34.5 percent think it has not.
44.7 percent think Bangladesh cannot trust India because of the non-signing of the Teesta treaty. However, 27.7 percent think the treaty will come to reality soon.
Again, 53 percent feel that it was a breach of trust by India to go ahead with the Tipai Mukh dam. Almost half the respondents think that the government has been bargaining enough with India to secure its interest. 38.9 percent also support giving transit to India but 35 percent are against it.
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Survey Methodology
This year The Daily Star engaged Centre for Strategic Research (CSR) to collect data on behalf of the newspaper as Nielsen Bangladesh, which was the opinion poll partner since its start, was unable to accommodate our assignment due to workload. CSR followed the same international methodology that Nielsen followed and the data was collected from the same areas under strict supervision.
The objective of the Daily Star Opinion Poll 2011 was to assess the current political scenario and public image of different political parties and leaders. The study explored the general perception on politics in Bangladesh according to gender, age group, urban-rural and different constitutional setting, socio-economic and geographic divisions. It was also investigated people's perception and views about the upcoming national parliamentary election.
To ensure that the sample properly represents all possible categories, respondents were selected from the following groups:
* Urban and rural areas* Male and female population* Age 18 years and above
Study Design: The sample for the poll covered the entire population residing in private dwellings units in the country. Administratively, Bangladesh is divided into six divisions. In turn, each division is divided into districts, and each district into upazila. Each urban area in the municipality is divided into wards, and into mahallas within the ward. Each rural area in the upazila is divided into union parishad (UP) and into mouzas within UPs. Therefore, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were mouza in the rural areas and mohallah in the urban areas. From each PSU, required number of households and respondents were selected randomly. The list of mouzas and mohallas were procured from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Therefore, to capture overall picture of Bangladesh, the poll was carried out in 44 districts, covering all the 7 administrative divisions across Bangladesh.
Click on the image for larger view
A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at around 2,520 based on statistical estimation, both from rural and urban areas. The split among these areas were based on national rural-urban population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was December 2011
.
Right or wrong direction?
The past one year has made quite an impact on popular perception about how the country is being run. A dramatic reversal in perception was noticed as the people thinking that the country is moving in the wrong direction outnumbered those thinking it is moving in the right direction. Of the respondents, 45.1 percent now think the country is going in the wrong direction as against only 31 percent a year ago. On the other hand, 40.5 percent said this time that the country is moving in the right direction against 51 percent last year. This clearly shows people’s negative perception about governance has deepened.
View on economy dims further
Quite a large number of people are now thinking that the economy is not doing well. This year, 38.5 percent people said they think the economy is doing bad and will lead to a worse situation. Last year, 28 percent thought so. Moreover, those who do not see much encouraging signs in economy remain static at 24.4 percent.
On the other hand, a fewer number of people now think the economy is doing well from last year. 31.3 percent said they see good indications in the economy against 39 percent last year.
Popularity declines further
Last year, it was found that the government's popularity had declined. This year's result shows popularity has declined even further.
43 percent people said they are either dissatisfied or very much dissatisfied with the performance of the government. This is much higher than last year's 29 percent.
On the other hand, less people now think favourably about the government from last year. While this year 38.6
percent said they are either very satisfied or satisfied with the government, last year a huge 48 percent said so.
Inflation remains a worry
People are still not satisfied by the way inflation has been addressed. 62 percent said they are dissatisfied by the way the government has addressed the issue of inflation.
Last year, it was 61 percent.
On the other hand, 26.1 percent said they are satisfied with measures on inflation against last year's 25 percent.
People are fearful of confrontational politics
When this government came to power, people's expectation about politics was high as they saw a positive chance in political culture. Now three years down the line, their perception has changed quite a lot as only 29.6 percent say they see any positive change in politics against last year's 42 percent. On the other hand, more people now take a negative view of politics (40.5 percent) than last year (29 percent).
Not only that, more people now fear (32.9 percent) that politics of violence is coming back than last year (26 percent). 80 percent feel that politics of killing is coming back and over 50 percent expect hartal and extortions to increase.
The way the government has handled the opposition over the last one year has also been reflected in the survey as a large number of respondents (45.4 percent) now think that the government has been suppressive as against last year's 27 percent.
Continue
Top agenda
Inflation, corruption and education are the three top issues that the voters think the government should pay highest attention. Interestingly, the number of those who think fighting corruption should be the top agenda has almost doubled from last year.
However, despite the prevailing high inflation rate, 27 percent said it needs the greatest attention of the government against last year's 38 percent.
When asked what are the areas that the government has already taken actions in, the highest 42.8 percent said they see steps taken in education followed by power (21 percent), trial of war criminals (18.1 percent) and corruption (16.6 percent).
Law and order
For the first time, the people's perception about the law and order situation has dipped. 32.9 percent think the situation has deteriorated over the year as against only 20 percent last year.
On the other hand, fewer people now think favourably about the law and order as 41.2 percent think the situation has improved as against 55 percent last year.
Also 28.2 percent said law and order is the weakest point of the government, putting it in the third place of weaknesses.
Judiciary is more politically biased
People's perception about the judiciary has dipped over the past year as more people think it is politically influenced. Last year, 40 percent said they think judiciary is politically biased and this year 53.2 percent think so.
Again, less people now think judiciary is free and independent with a 32.1 percent saying so against last year's 40
percent.
People appreciate power initiatives
More people now appreciate initiatives to improve power supply and less people are critical about it. This is reflective of the government's crash programme on power. Last year, 38 percent felt that enough initiatives have been taken on power sector. This year, this number has gone up to 42 percent. On the other hand, last year 29 percent viewed that initiatives had not been taken and this year this number has gone down to 22.7 percent.
Graft perception dips too
More people are now concerned about corruption. 45 percent of the respondents feel that corruption has increased over the year against 31 percent last year. Correspondingly less people now think graft has decreased. Last year, 47 percent felt that corruption has decreased, this year the figure has shrunk to only 34.5 percent.
Half the respondents think that the grassroots workers of the AL are involved in corruption.
Despite such high perception, only 23.7 percent said they had personally experienced graft. The highest number of them said they faced corruption with police.
Interestingly, in the past one year, people's perception about the Anti-corruption Commission has improved. 36 percent now think it is controlled by the government against last year's 51 percent. 26.7 percent think it is working
properly against last year's paltry 10 percent.
Opposition shed negative image
The BNP and its allies have quite impressively shed their negative image in politics. Last year, 30 percent had a negative view about the opposition politics. This time, only 20 percent said so. On the other hand, the number of people who hold a positive view about their politics remained static.
Continue
Hasina's popularity declines drastically
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's popularity rating suffered hugely in the last one year in continuation of last year's popularity curve.
Last year, over half the respondents (53 percent) said they are satisfied with her performance. This year, only 39.4 percent said so. When she became prime minister three years ago, her approval rating was as high as 81 percent. So in three years, this is a huge decline in popularity.
The number of people who are dissatisfied with her is also much higher this year (42.1 percent) than last year (27 percent).
Khaleda's popularity static
Leader of the opposition Khaleda Zia however has maintained a static popularity rating.
Last year, 30 percent respondents said they are happy with her performance. This year the figure is similar at 30.3 percent.
However, she has been able to reduce the negative sentiment of the respondents from 35 percent last year to 30.6 percent this year.
AL, BNP back to their core vote bank
Last year, when we asked people which party they would vote for if there is an election tomorrow, it was found that AL was the choice of majority of the respondents (39 percent) and it was far ahead of the BNP (22 percent). This time it was found that AL's chance of winning the election remains static at 39.7 percent. However BNP has dramatically regained its position to close the gap with the AL as 36.8 percent voters said they would vote for BNP. Jatiya Party has also done better with 5.8 percent voting for it from last year's 4 percent. Jamaat remained almost static wth 2.1 percent against last year's 2 percent. If the alliances are taken into consideration, then the AL-Jaatiya Party alliance would bag 42.6 percent votes while BNP-Jamaat would bag 38.9 percent votes.
People want caretaker government system
A large 73.9 percent people said they do not support cancellation of the caretaker government system and a similarly large number of the respondents think it is not possible to hold free and fair elections without a caretaker government.
Only a small 6.2 percent said they have no idea if free elections are possible without a caretaker government.
Success and weak points of the government
The respondents identified trial of war criminals as the top success point with a 29.7 percent rating. Fertiliser supply came in second place with a 25 percent vote followed by power generation (19 percent) and education (16.9 percent).
On the other hand, most respondents identified corruption (29.9 percent) as the weakest point followed by share market (29.4 percent) and law and order situation (28.2 percent).
AL, BNP's acceptance rating
People who think that AL's public acceptance as a party has gone down outnumber those who think otherwise. But the case is quite opposite in case of the BNP.
53 percent of the respondents feel that AL's public acceptance has decreased while only 28.5 percent it has increased. In case of the BNP, 44.3 percent think its public acceptance has gone up while 28.2 percent think it has decreased.
Continue
BNP politics
BNP's parliament boycott wrong move
The respondents overwhelmingly rejected the politics of parliament boycott when in opposition. An overwhelming 77.5 percent said they do not support parliament boycott by the BNP and only 15.1 percent said they think it is a good decision.
Politics for people?
Respondents were almost equally divided about whether the BNP has been doing politics on people's issues. 44.8 percent said it is pursuing issues that matter to people while 40 percent said it is not.
Political focus
Almost 50 percent of the respondents think BNP has been trying to get back its lost image and 22.2 percent think it is fighting for people's causes. But 18.3 percent also said the party focus is to rehabilitate Tarique Rahman in politics.
Narayanganj experience
Voters feel the Narayanganj City Corporation election was an eye-opener for everybody. 53 percent said the election result has proven that a party will lose if honest candidates are not filed. 19 percent feel the result has shown that a fair election is possible without army deployment. A large 21 percent however did not respond to the question.
Relationship with India
Majority people think that Bangladesh's relationship with India has progressed although a large number of them are highly critical of India for non-signing of the Teesta water treaty and the dam initiative on Tipai river.
Almost half the respondents said they think Bangladesh-India relationship has progressed and 34.5 percent think it has not.
44.7 percent think Bangladesh cannot trust India because of the non-signing of the Teesta treaty. However, 27.7 percent think the treaty will come to reality soon.
Again, 53 percent feel that it was a breach of trust by India to go ahead with the Tipai Mukh dam. Almost half the respondents think that the government has been bargaining enough with India to secure its interest. 38.9 percent also support giving transit to India but 35 percent are against it.
Back
Govt's Three-Year Performance Rating
Survey Methodology
The Daily Star has been carrying out opinion poll nationwide since 2009. The series began with the 100-day performance rating of the current government. This year The Daily Star engaged Centre for Strategic Research (CSR) to collect data on behalf of the newspaper.
The Daily Star and CSR followed internationally practiced research methodology in collecting data from randomly selected survey areas. For comparability with the previous surveys, same number of respondents was selected from the same survey areas under strict supervision and quality control measures.
The objective of The Daily Star Opinion Poll 2012 was to assess the performance rating of the government after four years in power,, gauge public opinion about various national issues and public image of different political parties and leaders. The study explored the general perception on politics in Bangladesh according to gender, age group, urban-rural and different constitutional setting, socio-economic and geographic divisions. It was also investigated people's perception and views about the upcoming national parliamentary election. To ensure that the sample properly represents all possible categories, respondents were selected from the following groups:
Urban and rural areasMale and female populationAge 18 years and above
Study Design: The sample for the poll covered the entire population residing in private dwellings units in the country. Administratively, Bangladesh is divided into seven divisions. In turn, each division is divided into districts, and each district into upazila. The urban area is divided into wards, and mahallas. Each rural area in the upazila is divided into union parishad (UP) and into mouzas within UPs. Therefore, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were mouza in the rural areas and mohallah in the urban areas. From each PSU, required number of respondents were selected randomly. The list of mouzas and mohallas were procured from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Therefore, to capture overall picture of Bangladesh, the poll was carried out in 44
SURVEY AREA
COVERAGE
Demographic profile of the respondents:
* Average age of respondents: Males 39 years and females 34 years, starting from 18 years* Male-Female ratio: 50:50* Rural-urban ratio: 65:35
districts, covering all the 7 administrative divisions across Bangladesh. A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at 2,510 based on statistical estimation, both from rural and urban areas. The split among these areas were based on national rural-urban population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was December 2012.
Who would win if elections are held today -- AL or BNP?
If an election is held today, AL will win more votes than its arch rival BNP. However, as the survey reveals, the gap between the two parties is now very thin although both parties have gained votes.
AL's votes increased to 42 percent from 40 percent last year. Its votes are basically hovering around its core votes as the last four surveys reveal.
BNP's votes increased to 39 percent from last year's 37 percent. It had significantly gained since 2010 mainly with swing votes (We consider the 'no response' segment as swing votes) which had dramatically fallen from 26 percent to 9 percent in 2011 and has risen by 1 percentage point in 2012, making for a total of 10 percent.
The real deciding factor will be this large segment of 10 percent who still remain undecided and did not respond to the question of who they would vote for if an election is held today. They are the swing voters who will act as the king makers.
Jamaat's votes decreased to 1 percent from 2 percent last year. There seems to be a shift in Jamaat's votes to BNP, thus making Jamaat less relevant to BNP in the next poll.
Jatiya Party's votes seem to have decreased marginally to 5 percent. However, Jatiya Party will have more bargaining power in alliance building, as the difference between the AL and BNP is narrowing.
People want caretaker back for fair polls
The voters do not support the cancellation of the caretaker government system as they feel it is essential for free and fair elections.
67 percent voters said they do not support abolition of the system and they also feel that free and fair elections are not possible under a political government. A minority of 26 percent supports the cancellation and also thinks political governments can hold free elections.
Skepticism about EC high
Since the next general elections were round the corner, it is important to assess how voters perceive the Election Commission. When asked, a very high 34 percent said the EC has lost its neutrality and 28 percent did not respond. 38 percent said the EC is doing its job properly. Like before, the rural people gave good scores to the EC.
Reflecting the above sentiments, it was found that a high 43 percent think the EC is unable to hold the next national elections properly against 34 percent who think it has the ability to do so.
More voters think country heading in right direction
After losing trust of the people following the election, the AL appears to have regained public confidence somewhat.
When the first survey was done within 100 days of its coming to power, 71 percent said the country is heading in the right direction. From such a zenith, this perception continuously waned to 41 percent last year. But this year, the government has gained as 46 percent think the country is moving in the right direction. On the other hand , the number of people who thought the country was moving in the wrong direction rose steadily to 45 percent last year. But this year, the number of pessimists has dropped to 42 percent.
The rural people overwhelmingly (51 percent) surpass the urban dwellers in taking favourable view of the situation.
Mixed feeling on economy
The percentage of voters who hold a positive view of the economy has slightly increased from last year's 31 percent to 34 percent this year. At the same time, those who think economy is heading towards a bad situation has decreased from last year's 39 percent to 33 percent. However those who do not find much encouraging signs have increased from 24 percent to 28 percent.
It was obvious that rural people hold (37percent) a much higher good perception than their urban (28 percent) counterparts.
Continue All Survey Report
Popularity rises
In its fourth year, AL has been able not only to arrest its consistent decline in popularity but also has made a noticeable turnaround, increasing in positive response and decreasing in negative response.
Last year 38 percent voters said they are satisfied with the government. But this year 47 percent said they are satisfied.
Similarly the number of dissatisfied people has come down from 44 percent last year to 40 percent this year.
Males were more dissatisfied (42 percent) than females (36 percent) (dissatisfied and very much dissatisfied combined). Females were more satisfied (49 percent) than males (45 percent) (satisfied and very much satisfied combined). The rural population was more in favour of the AL than the urban dwellers.
Unhappiness about inflation continues
High price is still hurting the voters.
A year ago, 62 percent people were grumbling about inflation. They thought inflation was not being well managed. This year the number is almost unchanged at 60 percent.
Once again, the rural folks had a much better view (29 percent) than the urban voters (22 percent) about inflation.
Majority think law and order improved
More people (50 percent) now think law and order situation has improved from last year (41 percent). Last year, people's perception about law and order dipped for the first time from very high ratings in the previous years.
The number of people who think law and order had slid has slightly
increased to 35 percent from 33 percent (a combination of deteriorated little and deteriorated enough).
The government got such rating in law and order because of the rural voters 30 percent of whom thinks situation has improved as against 22 percent urban voters.
Power still a weak point
Power remains a weak spot for the government despite reduction of load shedding. Increase in power tariff may be a reason for that. The government did not get a favourable rural rating on this issue as it got in other areas because of power outages in villages.
When the government completed its first year, 24 percent people said not enough initiative has been taken to resolve power crisis. This number increased to 32 percent last year, and to 41 percent this year.
The number of those who think initiatives have been taken remains static at 42 percent from last year.
The number of those who think initiatives in power are either absent or not adequate remains equal for rural and urban population.
Judiciary
Improving the image of the judiciary by not making political interference still remains an order of the day.
Two years after the government was formed, 40 percent thought judiciary is politically biased while an equal percentage thought it is free and independent. The number of people having a negative image of the judiciary shot up last year to 53 percent.
This year it has significantly come down but still remains a high 43 percent against 35 percent who think judiciary is free and independent.
Nobody keeps promises
Voters lament promises not kept by the AL.
A large 44 percent think the government has fulfilled very little of the promises it made in election manifesto. 25 percent think it has only moderately met the promises. Compared to these, only 30 percent are happy about keeping promises.
On this count, urban voters were more critical than their rural counterparts.
Continue All Survey Report
Strong and weak points
The respondents were asked to list what are the areas they think the government worked successfully. A huge number of respondents (81 percent) said the government's top success point was its ability to ensure quality education. It was followed by trial of war criminals (39 percent) and power generation (32 percent).
The respondents were also asked to name the weak points of the government. The highest 48 percent mentioned corruption, 42 percent quoted law and order and 30 percent power generation.
Urgent tasks for govt
The top agendas for the voters remain almost unchanged from last year. This year the first two issues that they think the government should pay heed to are corruption (32 percent) and inflation (30 percent). Last year, inflation was their most worrying issue with 28 percent saying so. Corruption was their second issue with 16 percent voters picking this. One thing is clear from this is that the government's anti-corruption drive has to gear up.
The government's actions in education fared well with voters with an overwhelming 80 percent saying that the government has taken right steps in education. In the second step was trial of war criminals with 37 percent voters quoting it.
Hasina regains popularity
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has regained popularity quite a bit in the last one year. This year 48 percent respondents said they are satisfied (very satisfied and satisfied combined) with her performance.
Last year only 40 percent said so.
Even though Hasina has regained popularity, she is yet to touch her 2010 popularity level (53 percent).
Khaleda's recovery even sharper
Leader of the Opposition Khaleda Zia also significantly gained in popularity from last year. 39 percent of the voters are satisfied(very satisfied and satisfied combined) with her performance this year compared to last year's 30 percent. The number of people who are dissatisfied with her remains unchanged at 31 percent.
Best and worst performers
Education undoubtedly is the success story for the government and so, it is no wonder that a 52 percent majority named Education Minister Nurul Islam Nahid as the most successful minister. Communication Minister Obaidul Quader left quite a mark on public mind as he was seen to be pro-active in responding to the sufferings of the commuters. He was chosen the second best performer with 31 percent voting for him. Agriculture Minister Motia Chowdhury was in third position with 11 percent endorsement.
When asked who performed worst, most respondents (26 percent) picked former home minister Sahara Khatun. Former railway minister Suranjit Sengupta was in the second place with 18 percent and Finance Minister AMA Muhith was the third worst performer with 13 percent. However, a large number of the respondents (52 percent) said they cannot decide.
AL's performance rating
AL's rating based on performance has also undergone a significant change. Last year, only 28 percent said they think AL's performance is better compared to the previous year. This year a huge 44 percent said so. On the other hand, last year 53 percent thought AL has done badly. But this year a lesser number of 48 percent holds such an impression.
BNP's performance rating
Corruption a big challenge
After four years of the government, more people think corruption has become pervasive and they feel AL's grassroots leaders, MPs and ministers are connected to graft. This one single issue has actually brought down the government's record in the survey. Such perception is corroborated by the finding that people think fighting corruption should be the government's top agenda now.
This year, 46 percent people said corruption has increased compared to 45 percent last year and only 31 percent the year before (2011).
Meantime, the number of people who think corruption has come down has decreased over the period. This year 34 percent think corruption has decreased while last year it was 35 percent and year before (2011) 47 percent.
Urban people took a more critical view than the villagers.
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MPs/ ministers in corruption
The survey revealed that more people (47 percent) think the MPs and ministers are now involved in corruption. Compared to it, 27 percent replied in the negative. A large 26 percent said they have no idea on this issue.
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Grassroots leaders in corruption
Such perception coincides with results of another question – whether they think the AL grassroots workers have been involved in corruption. 47 percent replied 'yes' and 34 percent said 'no'.
Poor view about ACC
Although the number of people taking a negative view of the Anti-corruption Commission (ACC) has decreased this year still majority of 42 percent people hold a poor view of the commission as against 32 percent
who think positively.
Political culture
A greater percentages of people think our political culture has turned for the worst.
Last year 30 percent thought there was a positive change in political culture, this year 33 percent think so. Similarly, last year 41 percent thought there was a negative change and this year 43 percent think so.
44 percent respondents said the government is repressive towards the opposition while 35 percent said it is behaving normally.
Parliament ineffective, government to blame
40 percent of the voters think parliament is ineffective and 67 percent of them think it is the government to be blamed for this. 26 percent however blame both AL and BNP for the ineffectiveness.
Bureaucracy politicised
The survey also showed majority 38 percent thinks the bureaucracy is more politicized now than before. 27 percent replied in the negative. But a large segment of 35 percent said they have no
BNP's JS boycott wrong decision
An overwhelming majority of 61 percent voters said BNP's boycott of parliament is a wrong decision. Only 21 percent it was right.
idea.
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