the crunch diet qualitative insights 1 fdin seminar march 2009
TRANSCRIPT
The ‘Crunch Diet’Qualitative insights
1FDIN Seminar March 2009
Lesley Thompson
Founded ‘Changes’ in 1997Qualitative research-based consultancy
Particular interests in food, retail, health and wellbeing in context of cultural trends
Broad previous experienceHead of qualitative unit at The Research Business
Advertising agencies and client company marketing, as well as qual and quant research agency experience
Wide range of food, drink and retail clients over time
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BackgroundPresented at FDIN Seminar in June 2008
Responses to food price rises and economic uncertaintyPost Northern Rock, rumbles of ‘credit crunch’ but pre-Lehman collapseBased on own recent qualitative work then
Then now (March 2009)Shocking, unpredictable series of economic events, cultural climate changing very fast and in jolts
This paper Collaborative approach - my recent work plus interviews with: 15 great qualitative researchers - their recent projects and
observations (respecting client confidentiality) Management consultant to food industry and 3 senior marketeers
Distillation of what many hundreds of participants have revealed
in recent qualitative studies3FDIN Seminar March 2009
What comes next…?
"The wise man knows he doesn't know. The fool doesn't know he doesn't know" (Lao Tzu)
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“There are no experts, this is uncharted
territory”
“It's hard to know what to do when nobody else - including the Government - seems to
know”
“No matter who you talk to, nobody knows what’s
going to happen”
Projected economic & social scenarios
Range of views across researchers/marketing participants
Most optimisticSerious downturn Bank
nationalisations Government
interventions UnemploymentBut will stabilise, turn up againMay take 18 months + before cautious growth resumes
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Most seriousDisconnect from everything we’ve knownDepression, 1930’s closest comparisonSocial unrest: Crime increases Vigilantes, retribution Union activity,
protectionism, anti-foreign Flash-mobs, riotsContinued ecology scaresRethink meaning of capitalism, zero growth economies the norm?
Majority leaning
towards:
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2009/10?1930’s
Why the potential disconnect?
Previous recessions less all-pervasiveConfined to industry types, regions, social classes
The ‘crunch’ shows signs of respecting virtually no-oneProblems across classes, industries - even public sector invested in e.g. bank shares now cost-cutting
Not contained within the UK - global, out of our control
Banking and stock market problems unprecedentedThought inconceivable that banks could fail - my money unsafe
Pensions and stock-related investments eroding day by day No longer preserve of the wealthy - many small shareholders/windfalls
+ more have personal pensions
And 24:7 media reporting, Robert Peston effect
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Fear
Consumer concerns and priorities
June 2008Food price risesUtilities and petrol price rises
and maybe
Vague rumblings of economic uncertainty Northern Rock nationalised US sub-prime? ‘Credit crunch’? Rising unemployment?Greedy supermarkets/banks
March 2009Economic catastrophe stories, sensationalist coverageShocking twists e.g. Ponzi schemes, Fred’s pensionUnemployment worries or reality Signifiers abound e.g. empty shops
and
Food prices still high (but stabilising and lots of offers)Petrol prices fallen, utilities to follow? (direct debits artificially high)
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Reality vs. fear
Some are better off!Reasonably secure jobWealthy retired, substantial fixed annuity returnsMortgage tracker, much lower repaymentsSavings not share-reliantLots of offers - cars, furniture, clothes, holidays as well as food
Negatively affected if any/ many of:
Lost job or real fears of cutbacksFamily/friends already affected, need supportReliant on investment income Savers being punishedShare-based pensionClose to retirementSelf employed, work sporadicNeed to sell property
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All living in fear-laden climate
Responses to the climate
Enjoy quietly, embarrassed to display
vs.Fed up with needing to be seen to be thrifty, when will it end?!
Prudent cutting back, sense of control
vs.Occasional treat, throw caution to winds
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Better off, bargains to be had
Ok for the
moment
Real, justified
fears
Already in
difficulty
Little change
vs.Making economies as ‘insurance’
Some treats
Having to cut back
plusSome anger, betrayal - many never had money worries before
Many are ‘practising’ in case things get worseSome feelings of relief - self-identity was too reliant on ‘stuff’, buying ‘stuff’ with hypothetical money is
cause of global crunch
The ‘crunch diet’
We are going on financial and emotional (as well as food) dietsBusinesses: review/control outgoings, freeze wages, shorter hours, shed staff
Personal money: Defer big items like replace car and booking holiday; kids on wait list for state
schools; cancel gym and cleaner Every little helps: longer between haircuts and dry cleaning; few new clothes -
actual/claimed Topshop & charity shops; reduce charitable giving
Shopping generally: bargain seek, scour internet for vouchers and offers
Emotionally: Thriftiness as virtue, learning to mend and reuse - aligns with eco-trends,
minimising waste, feeling ‘green’ Necessity for some, starts to pall quickly Catharsis and liberation for others vs. can rebel against smugness and effort of
it all, want to break out….
Current sense of novelty for many - may be replaced by real hardship,
emotional and mental problems
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Three broad needs drive the ‘crunch diet’
Not mutually exclusive - a web of inter-
connections that are semi or sub-consciously
traded off in decision making
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Value Comfort
Grounding
Three broad needs: value
Actual prices
Price/quality/other trade-offs
Being seen to be conscious of value practising at it just in case having to be
ExamplesEmailing vouchers to friends/colleagues, price comparison and reward sites
Designer clothes in unbranded bags
‘Is it on offer?’ initial screening Choose groceries within offers Eat out only where vouchers/deals
Reduce discretionary e.g. smoothies, luxury skincare
Experiment with Aldi, Waitrose Essentials
Trade down from organic chicken to free-range - still doing ‘my bit’ for welfare
Totting up cost of basket as shop, ceiling for total
Following guy with ‘reduced’ stickers in storeFDIN Seminar March 2009 13
Value
Comfort
Grounding
Three broad needs: comfort
Consolation and escape from unremitting gloomOften small/affordable - even more important now few big treatsOr discreet/hiddenOr “f**k it”
ExamplesEscapism: ‘Mamma Mia’ DVDCadbury chocolate and vintage wines sales increaseNostalgia for golden past: ‘Lark Rise’, iconic brands - Hovis, Arctic Roll, Bird’s CustardBuy top end/luxury food brands rather than going out to eat ‘Dine in for £10’ promosCarbs as comfort foodTakeaway as treat
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Value
Comfort
Grounding
Three broad needs: grounding
Partially backlash against frenzied consumption
Also control what you can in face of frightening world
Focus on humanity - home, family, friends, community, environment - all in this together Co-op ad captures the mood (Can again be a slight pose, being seen to care)
ExamplesGetting pregnant (+ avoid losing job)
Upsurge in teacher training applications
Helping friends who have lost jobs e.g. with childcare
Networking, collaborating
Running, cycling instead of gym
Growing own, shopping local, less wastage, scratch cooking
Child pressure via schools - cooking taught again, be green, dig, recycle, Fairtrade
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Value
Comfort
Grounding
Examples of attitudes and behaviour
Shopping, cooking, eating outBy lifestage
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Grocery shoppingVery well documented
Trading down to lower status retailer … plus to and within own brand rangesPolarisation: cheap where can get away with it + some (affordable) premium treatsShop more frequently but smaller volumes - less wastage, better value Buy non-food elsewhere e.g. cleaning products,
crisps, coffee from £ shop, Wilkinson’s Cherry-pick generally - pick up bargains as seen Use local shops, markets, farm shops/marketsTrying the discounters Dabble - revert to previous (all supermarkets more
aggressive on price) Stay - discounters stocking more known brands +
treats e.g. smoked salmon, chocolate, ice cream
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CookingConvenience meals claimed less popular, fresh ingredients and ‘scratch’ cooking increasing Plus cooking aids - stock, cooking sauces
‘Scratch’ has multiple meanings Raw ingredients and leftovers - can be a return to old
skills or entirely new learning Complex recipes simple ‘just add sauce’
Many need help e.g. Jamie recipe cards feed four for £5 (and new Battersea shop and school?)
Aware that cooking fresh ingredients healthier
But can get discouraged (difficult, adds up expensively), bulk cheap carbs on offer for freezer and microwave
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Maybe too upmarket in feel for people who might benefit
most?
Or a great initiative?
Eating outTrading down from previous start point Eat out less frequently (but appreciate more) ‘Fine dining’ offer on toptable, Zizzi + coupon Pizza meal out top range supermarket/
branded pizzas at home TGI’s McDonald’s Theatre + meal out cinema + drink Cinema takeaway and Sky Movies
Go out less frequently Friends for supper, each do a course Drink together at someone's home
Drink less in pub/club session (less on-trade snacks and cigarettes)
Takeaway as treat, a rest from all this thrift!
andThe return of the lunchbox - make sandwiches,
use leftovers
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Lifestages
Pre-kidsNever known recession as adults
Some embrace novelty, enjoy new austerity
Many very frightened: Few graduate jobs No experience of job
losses Generation of adult
children who go back to parents when trouble hits - been infantilised?
Or drop out, disenfranchised
MumsProtective of kids, family status quo - fear loss of own/husband’s jobs and house See other husbands
on school run Scared of denying kids
their favourites
Kids usually quite adaptable, can get into cooking etc.
Older have memories of previous downturn
More upmarket can get competitive: be seen as green/thrifty
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Older/emptyingSeen previous recessions, familiar, will survive
vs.Pension and savings fears, much worse than anything before
Remember tales of 1930’s from own parents
Very scared for own adult children - if come home for help = more pressure
Pen portraits
Four examples follow
Look for the big themes
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Value Comfort
Grounding
Pre-kids example
Single woman, 30’sRecently redundant - financial services management
Job-hunting in different sectors, drawn to not-for-profit
Feels partially scared, loss of identity via job - but also partially liberated
Lots of friends still in jobs are cutting back anyway - so at least not alone in this
Still goes to Sainsbury Has tried Iceland Chooses from what’s on
offer first - especially 2 for 1 and when online
Takes coffee in a flask sometimes when out, cheaper than Starbucks
Eats out still but where there’s an offer, friends all research online
Have drinks at someone's house before going out for evening
Cinema but no associated meal
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Male example
Male, 30’s/40’sSelf-employed plumber
Last year was busy full time installing new bathrooms - too much work, passed to others
Recent week: 3 small maintenance jobs only, hour or so each
Has HGV licence, trying to get driving work to supplement income but that is also scarce
Stopped going out to the pub on Friday night
Stopped buying alcohol to drink at home
Still sometimes goes to pub at lunchtime but for networking One pint only Meets work mates, lots
of them free, try to help each other
Needs new shoes but putting off buying
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Family/emptying example
Mum, 40’sHairdresser, married, one child left, one working and still at home
Secure housing association home
Own job and husband’s OK so far
But still feeling pressure to cut back….
Cooking more from scratch
Used to buy everything at Sainsbury, now a series of trips Asda once a month for big
shop Cherry-picks cleaning stuff,
veg etc. from £ shops, market on way home
Sainsbury for some food but: Trying Basics - used to buy
middling ranges Cheaper cuts of meat Look for offers first and
foremost, plan menus around this
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Retired example
Couple, 70’sOwn homeHit by pensions fiasco a few years ago and now this….Holiday place in Italy Euro fears, usually go
for a few months, very expensive now
Say they are “bunkering down” Staying at home - their
castle Bought big TV =
cheaper long term than going out
Cutting down all round - CD’s, books, going out, more luxurious foods
See selves as ‘urban pioneers’ - have time to seek out new ways to combat the crunch
Experimenting with lower status own brand, would never have considered it before
Had health scares, on fairly strict diet More scratch/fresh food
ideally But can be expensive
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NPD
Your marketThese themes, particularly ideas that align two or more
Think creatively and collaboratively
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Value Comfort
Grounding
Gratitude to the contributorsQualitative researchers Graham Booth [email protected] Claire Byrne [email protected] Chloe Fowler [email protected] Ed Garey [email protected] Roddy Glen [email protected] Janet Kiddle [email protected] Mary Leslie [email protected] Alex McKie [email protected] Maddy Morton [email protected] Sarah O’Brien [email protected] Anne Marie Simon [email protected] Philippa Ravenscroft [email protected] Vera Sommer [email protected] Tracey White [email protected]
Food industry management consultant Harriet Rhys Williams [email protected]
Plus a few ‘deep throats’ who also helped greatly and wish to remain anonymous
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