the continued and forecasted impact of the pandemic …

THE CONTINUED AND FORECASTED IMPACT OF

THE PANDEMIC ON THE P&C INSURANCE

ECONOMY

OCTOBER 2021

© 2021 CCC Intelligent Solutions Inc. All Rights Reserved 2

Figure 1: CCC National Industry – Percent Change in Overall Claim Counts Versus Same Period Prior Year (includes Repairable Appraisals & Total Loss Valuations)SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.

With the pandemic still not fully behind us, it remains difficult to know just what life will be like once

we emerge. Businesses continue to adapt, evaluating key issues like employee safety, supply-chain

sourcing, and telecommuting. Key demographic factors like how and where people live and work,

what habits they’ve formed during the pandemic, population growth and aging, and more have been

transformed.

There continue to be two major factors impacting our industry and the frequency and cost of auto

accidents/claims: a) distinctly different driving and traffic patterns and b) supply chain disruptions.

Each is either a direct by-product of the pandemic or has resulted in market shifts.

CLAIM COUNTS IN CY 2021 HAVE RECOVERED FROM CY 2020 BUT REMAIN DOWN VERSUS CY 2019. HOW THEY DIFFER TELLS US A LOT ABOUT HOW TRAFFIC PATTERNS REMAIN CHANGED FROM PRE-PANDEMIC.Through September 2021, overall claim counts including comprehensive losses are up 8.8 percent, while

non-comprehensive losses are up 9 percent (see Figure 1). Some states seeing non-comprehensive

claim counts up between 15 and 16 percent (see Figure 2) illustrating just how geographically different

the impact of the pandemic has been. When compared to CY 2019 however, overall non-comprehensive

claim counts continue to be down by over 15 percent.

Collision/ Liability Only All Loss Categories

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

1st Q

tr 2

019

2nd

Qtr 2

019

3rd

Qtr 2

019

4th

Qtr 2

019

Full

Yr 2

019

1st Q

tr 2

020

2nd

Qtr

3rd

Qtr 2

020

4th

Qtr 2

020

Full

Yr 2

020

1st Q

tr 2

021

2nd

Qtr 2

021

3rd

Qtr 2

021


Figure 2: CY 2021 VERSUS CY 2020 Percent Change in CCC Industry Non –comprehensive Claim Count versus Same Month Prior YearSOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.

In April of 2020, overall appraisal counts for collision and liability loss categories fell by over -50 percent

versus April 2019. But while liability losses from May-December 2020 continued to see overall appraisal

counts hover between -25 and -30 percent lower than the same period in CY 2019, monthly overall

appraisal counts for collision losses experienced less of a decline (see Figure 3). This is one of several

key indicators that traffic patterns in the U.S. have changed – liability losses have lagged behind collision

losses throughout the pandemic in CY 2020 and CY 2021.

Data from numerous sources suggests an estimated 40 percent of individuals in the U.S. still continue to

work remotely in some capacity as of Q4 2021. Office occupancy data from Kastle Systems continues to

hover between 30 and 35 percent for its ten-city average, and numerous companies have indicated they

intend to postpone the return of their remote employees to the office until early 2022.

1.5%

5.5%

12.1%12.1%

6.8% 4.0%

11.3%

10.4%

16.4%

12.1%

13.4% 15.2%

12.5%6.2%

10.0%

7.6%

9.3%

3.6%

10.9%

6.0%

9.4%

11.9%

1.1%

15.5%

6…

4.4%

11.5%

12.0%

7.3%

11.5%

10.7%

12.4%

6.3%

10.9%

7.9%

6.4%

7.9%

7.2%

8…

7.2%

12.2%

9.5%

13.4%

1.1% 16.4%

YTD 2021 vs YTD 2020

YTD through Q3 2021 Overall Non-Comp Claim Count Up 9.0%


Overall miles driven in the U.S. in 2021 have now surpassed miles driven during the same months in 2020,

and as of June 2021 are nearing miles driven in 2019 (see Figure 4) . And yet, recovery in urban road

systems is substantially slower than in rural road systems, and even interstate miles show substantially

larger growth in truck miles versus passenger miles since March 2020 (see Figure 5). The US Department

of Transportation bases its miles driven data on its system of counting stations nationwide, some of

which are continuous and some temporary, and essentially rely on a stable mix of highway versus arterial

road traffic.¹ But the pandemic has meant anything but stability in how, when and where we drive.

Data from telematics providers like CCC, INRIX, TomTom, Arity, and Cambridge Telematics has provided

a more detailed picture of where, how, when, and how much more people are driving now than during

and before the pandemic. This is important because the variable that has been shown to be most highly

correlated to vehicle accident frequency is a large number of vehicles on the same road at the same time

– i.e. congestion typical of a.m. and p.m. rush hour traffic. Telematics data suggests that historical rush

hour patterns have changed and driving in different locations and at different times of day has grown. In

their report “Life in the Fast Lane”, Arity data shows that by the beginning of 2021, total miles driven had

essentially returned to pre-pandemic levels, and grew further over subsequent months to where in was 8

percent higher in July 2021 versus July 2019.² Their data also shows that mileage by time of day increased

across the board throughout 2021, led by Weekday Nights and Weekday Middays – both of which had

historically been lower than Afternoon Rush Hour and Morning Rush Hour.³

Prior to the pandemic, many people drove in what was often referred to as a dog bone pattern: driving

around the home before and after traditional work hours (left part of bone); driving to and from work

Figure 3: CCC National Industry by Loss Coverage Percent Change in Overall Appraisal Count from Same Month Prior YearSOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.

-80.0%

-60.0%

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr-

20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

Aug-

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Sep-

20

Oct-

20

Nov

-20

Dec-

20

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21

Feb-

21

Mar

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Apr-

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Jun-

21

Jul-2

1

Aug-

21

Sep-

21

Oct-

21

Nov

-21

Dec-

21

Collision APD Liability APD


Figure 5: Truck Interstate Travel Surges Past Passenger Interstate Vehicle TravelSOURCE: USDOT OHPI HTTPS://WWW.FHWA.DOT.GOV/POLICYINFORMATION/WEEKLYREPORTS/

Figure 4: Miles Driven by Road System Now Up Versus YTD 2019 and Versus YTD 2020SOURCE: USDOT OHPI HTTPS://WWW.FHWA.DOT.GOV/POLICYINFORMATION/WEEKLYREPORTS/

Jan

Rural Interstate -6.8%

Feb

-10.2%

Mar

21.9%

Apr

72.%

May

37.6%

Jun

20.8%

Jul

18.8%

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Q1

1.1%

Q2

39.5%

Q3 Q4 YTD

19.3%

Rural Other Arterial -7.5% -10.5% 20.0% 53.8% 25.8% 12.6% 10.5% 0.4% 27.7% 13.2%

Other Rural -7.2% -9.5% 19.2% 45.8% 22.3% 10.1% 8.1% 0.6% 24.1% 11.5%

Total Rural -7.2% -10.1% 20.2% 55.3% 27.5% 13.8% 11.8% 0.6% 29.3% 14.5%

Urban Interstate -14.3% -14.3% 19.8% 64.4% 35.2% 18.7% 13.9% -3.9% 36.0% 14.2%

Urban Other Arterial -13.0% -12.7% 17.9% 53.4% 28.3% 13.9% 10.8% -3.3% 29.4% 11.6%

Other Urban -11.8% -12.0% 17.3% 50.7% 26.4% 13.1% 10.2% -2.8% 27.9% 11.4%

Total Urban -13.0% -12.9% 18.2% 55.3% 29.5% 14.9% 11.4% -3.3% 30.6% 12.2%

All System -11.3% -12.1% 18.8% 55.2% 28.9% 14.5% 11.5% -2.2% 30.2% 12.8%

Jan

Rural Interstate -4.3%

Feb

-5.4%

Mar

-1.4%

Apr

72.%

May

37.6%

Jun

20.8%

Jul

18.8%

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Q1

-3.5%

Q2

0.0%

Q3 Q4 YTD

-0.5%

Rural Other Arterial -5.8% -7.0% 0.6% 53.8% 25.8% 12.6% 10.5% -3.8% -1.1% -1.9%

Other Rural -7.2% -7.9% -0.4% 45.8% 22.3% 10.1% 8.1% -4.9% -3.4% -3.7%

Total Rural -5.9% -6.9% -0.3% 55.3% 27.5% 13.8% 11.8% -4.1% -1.62% -2.2%

Urban Interstate -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -9.6% -5.6% -6.8%

Urban Other Arterial -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -9.1% -5.9% -6.9%

Other Urban -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -12.5% -6.8% -3.3% -4.4%

Total Urban -11.8% -10.3% -4.5% -9.8% -5.6% -0.1% -3.1% -8.7% -5.19% -6.3%

All System -10.1% -9.3% -3.3% -8.6% -4.3% 0.6% -1.9% -7.4% -4.10% -5.0%

2021 vs 2020 Percent Change in Individual Monthly Motor Vehicle Travel in U.S.

2021 vs 2019 Percent Change in Individual Monthly Motor Vehicle Travel in U.S.

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

2/3-2

/9

2/17-2

/23

3/2-3

/8

3/16-3

/22

4/13-4

/19

4/27-5

/3

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/17

5/25-5

/31

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/14

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24

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7/19-7/2

5

8/2-8

/8

8/16-8

/22

8/30-9

/5

9/13-9

/19

All Vehicles Passenger Vehicles Truck

<= CY 2020 => CY 2021

USDOT OHPI Weekly Traffic Volume Interstate Travel by Week Percent Change from Same Week in CY 2019

7/6-7/12


during rush hour (middle of bone); and driving around the workplace primarily during pre-work, lunch

hour, and after work (right side of bone). With the pandemic an estimated 40 to 70 percent of the U.S.

workforce was working in part remotely, limiting travel to around the home.

Finally, driving behavior data from all telematics providers also showed increases in distracted driving,

speeding, and driving outside the usual morning and evening commute times.⁴ Another sober reminder

driving has changed: NTHSA’s preliminary data for Q1 2021 shows the motor vehicle fatality rate per 100

million vehicle miles traveled remained at historically high levels despite fewer miles driven than pre-

pandemic (see Figure 6).

Figure 6: NHTSA U.S. Motor Vehicle Fatality Rate per 100 Million Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)SOURCE: NHTSA

Previous CCC Trends have discussed the change in vehicle crash characteristics that occurred since

March 2020, such as a shift to higher crash Delta-v’s, more front impacts, and more non-driveable

vehicles. Data from 2021 through Q3 continues to show these same changes. The increase in non-

driveable claims is particularly noteworthy when comparing the increase experienced among liability

losses versus first party collision losses (see Figures 7-9). Since March 2020, the non-driveable percent

has increased and remained higher than any other prior calendar year per calendar month, but the

increases were higher for liability losses. This has particularly interesting implications when we consider

the slower recovery in liability loss volume (see Figure 3), and the additional drop in industry-wide bodily

injury (BI) claim frequency as tracked by Fast Track in Q1 2021, while auto physical damage, auto collision,

and PIP claim frequency had begun to trend up (see Figures 10-11).

0.90

1.00

1.10

1.20

1.30

1.40

1.50

1.60

2009

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2009

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-Q1


Figure 7: Non-Driveable Percent(Collision Loss Category Losses – All Vehicle Conditions)SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.

Figure 8: Non-Driveable Percent(Liability Loss Category Losses – All Vehicle Conditions)SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

CY 2016 CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 CY 2020 CY 2021

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

CY 2016 CY 2017 CY 2018 CY 2019 CY 2020 CY 2021


Figure 9: Percentage Point Change in Non-Driveable Percent versus Same Month Prior Year (By Loss Category – All Vehicle Conditions)SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.

Figure 10: Paid Claim Frequency Collision - PIPSOURCE: ISS FAST TRACK AS OF JULY 31, 2021

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Jan-17

Mar-17

May-17Jul-1

7

Sep-17

Nov-17

Jan-18

Mar-18

May-18Jul-1

8

Sep-18

Nov-18

Jan-19

Mar-19

May-19Jul-1

9

Sep-19

Nov-19

Jan-20

Mar-20

May-20

Jul-20

Sep-20

Nov-20

Jan-21

Mar-21

May-21

Jul-21

Sep-21

Nov-21

Collision Liability

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

2007

-Q1

2007

-Q2

2007

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2007

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2008

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2008

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PIP

Colli

sion

Collision Personal Injury Protection

Private Passenger Auto by Line of Coverage Quarterly Paid Claim Frequency per 100 Insured Vehicle Years


Figure 11: Paid Claim Frequency Property Damage - BISOURCE: ISS FAST TRACK AS OF JULY 31, 2021

Private Passenger Auto by Line of Coverage Quarterly Paid Claim Frequency per 100 Insured Vehicle Years

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

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4.00

2007

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2007

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2007

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Bodi

ly In

jury

Prop

erty

Dam

age

Property Damage Bodily Injury

Looking further at how the ratio of auto casualty PIP claims to auto collision claims compares to the ratio

of auto casualty BI claims to auto physical damage claims illustrates just how different the outcomes are

for auto accidents and claims now that they were pre-pandemic. Both ratios saw a significant jump in

March-April 2020 at the early part of the pandemic when overall claim counts were down substantially

versus the same period in 2019 and roads were essentially free of any congestion. However, the ratio for

BI to APD liability (which essentially measures how often an auto physical damage liability claim includes

an auto casualty bodily injury claim) has continued to trend higher than the pre-pandemic baseline, while

the ratio for PIP to APD collision has generally trended lower (see Figure 12).

Figure 12: CCC National Industry Percent of 1st Party Claims to APD Collision Claims and 3rd Party Claims to APD Liability Claims (Change versus 2019)SOURCE: CCC CASUALTY IS PROVIDED BY AUTO INJURY SOLUTIONS, INC., A CCC COMPANY.

Jan-

20

Feb-

20

Mar

-20

Apr-

20

May

-20

Jun-

20

Jul-2

0

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21Ratio 1st Party to APD Collision Cnts Ratio 3rd Party to APD Liability Cnts


Figure 13: Procedure Category | % of Total Considered Billing 2019 to 2020SOURCE:

The takeaway? Despite lower liability APD loss frequency and claim counts overall, those that remained

appear to be more severe in nature than what we saw pre-pandemic. The higher severity impacts for

APD liability claims is illustrated by the greater increase in non-drive percent which in turn increased the

risk of injury (and more severe injury) to the vehicle’s occupants. Furthermore, analysis of both diagnoses

and procedures for bodily injury claims so far in 2021 reflects an increase in observed head injury,

soft tissue nerve and disc injury primary diagnoses, and increases in percent of claims with surgical

procedures (see Figures 13-14), both which deviate from pre-pandemic.

Proc

edur

e M

ain

Cate

gory

% of Total Considered $

Surgical

Radiology

Physical Medicine/Chiro

Evaluation & Management

Other

Durable Medical Equipment/...

Inpatient

Pathology/lab

Pharmacy & Drugs

Ambulance

Neurology

Null

Psychiatry

Dental

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24% 26% 28%


Figure 14: Procedures in Third Party Auto Casualty All Closed Claims SOURCE: AUTO INJURY SOLUTIONS (AIS), A CCC COMPANY.

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

% Psychiatry Procedures

% Neurology Procedures

%Pharmacy Drugs

% Path Lab Procedures

% DME Supplies Procedures

%Ambulance

% Surgical Procedures

% E M Procedures

% Physical Medicine Chiro Procedures

%Radiology Procedures

Q3'20-Q2'21 Q3'19-Q2'20 Q3'18-Q2'19 Q3'17-Q2'18 Q3'16-Q2'17

Pre-pandemic, the most frequent types of auto-related BI and PIP/MedPay diagnoses had remained

relatively unchanged and were predominately by nature soft tissue neck and back injuries associated

with lower speed crashes. And while the majority of injuries from high-frequency, lower-speed accidents

involve treatments with lower overall costs, the lower-frequency, high-speed accidents usually involve

treatments with higher overall costs that may have a disproportionate impact on a carrier’s risk portfolio.


Figure 15: CCC National Industry, Average Vehicle Repair Cost and Average Total Loss Vehicle Cost CY 2010 to CY 2021 through September – All Loss CategoriesSOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.

LOSS COSTS HAVE ALSO BEEN IMPACTED BY CHANGES IN TRAFFIC PATTERNS, BUT EVEN MORE SO BY SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS.Vehicle repair and total loss costs have been steadily increasing over the last several years as the content

of vehicles sold and driven in the U.S. and overall vehicle complexity has increased (see Figure 15).

Collision vehicle repair costs continue to well outpace those for liability losses, although liability losses

have seen a more significant shift of losses into the higher repair cost brackets over the last five years

(see Figure 16).

$-

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

CY2010 CY2011 CY2012 CY2013 CY2014 CY2015 CY2016 CY2017 CY2018 CY2019 CY2020 CY 2021 YTD

Avg Total Cost of Repairs, Repairable Appraisals Average Adjusted Total Loss Vehicle Value


Figure 16: CCC National Industry, Percent of Repairable Appraisal Volume by Repair Cost Dollar Ranges and Loss CategorySOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.

Q3’ 16- Q2’ 17 Q3’ 16- Q2’ 17

% Chg LatestVs

Earliest Period Q3’ 16- Q2’ 17 Q3’ 16- Q2’ 17

% Chg LatestVs

Earliest Period

Collision Liability

$0.01 to $500.00 3.4% 2.2% -1.1% 6.3% 4.3% -2.0%

$500.01 to $1,000.00 13.6% 9.1% -4.4% 24.1% 17.5% -6.6%

$1,000.01 to $2,000.00 26.2% 23.0% -3.2% 32.5% 31.1% -1.5%

$2,000.01 to $3,000.00 18.2% 18.5% 0.3% 15.8% 18.2% 2.4%

$3,000.01 to $4,000.00 11.9% 13.3% 1.4% 8.2% 10.4% 2.2%

$4,000.01 to $5,000.00 8.0% 9.3% 1.4% 4.7% 6.3% 1.5%

$5,000.01 to $10,000.00 14.8% 18.6% 3.8% 7.0% 10.1% 3.1%

$10,000.01 & Up 4.0% 5.9% 1.9% 1.3% 2.3% 0.9%

The rate of increase in both repair costs and total loss costs over the four quarters ending Q2 2021

however are some, if not the most significant increases we’ve seen, and are predominantly being driven

by global supply chain disruptions and shortage of workers in many fields.

Much has been written in the press about the impact of the semiconductor chip shortage to the auto

industry. Auto production at most automakers has been significantly cut back; analysts estimate that

as many as 6 to 7 million fewer new vehicles will be produced globally in 2021, with 2 million of those in

the North American market alone.⁵ And rather than getting better as we head into Q4 2021 as originally

hoped, shortages appear to be getting worse. GlobalData reports the industry had been experiencing


between 10 and 30 weeks of product lost globally since the start of CY 2021, but that sky-rocketed to 62

weeks the week beginning 6th September 2021, with the average number of units not produced per plant

spiking to 250,000 versus the previous average of about 80,000 per week.⁶ And now most analysts, auto

companies, and chip manufacturers believe the shortages will continue well into 2022.

The result? Automakers and their dealers have significantly reduced inventory of new vehicles for sale

at a time when many new customers are looking to buy a vehicle. A Cars.com survey showed that 36

percent of those that purchased a new or used car between March 2020 and March 2021 were first-time

buyers, almost 60 percent of car buyers reported the pandemic influenced their decision to purchase

a vehicle.⁷ As a result the average MSRP for new vehicles has hit a record of over $45K, as automakers

shift chip supplies to support production of their most profitable vehicles, and dealers cut back on

incentives.⁸ With fewer new vehicles available for dealers to sell, many have looked to increase their used

vehicle sales, pushing inventory of used vehicles down and prices up. According to Cox Automotive, new

average listing price for used vehicles also hit a new record in August 2021, up 24 percent from August

2020, and 34 percent higher than August 2019.⁹ And inventory shortages hit the most affordable units

(under $10K) most.¹0 Comparison of three industry indices tracking wholesale and retail used vehicles

prices illustrates just how significant the increases in used vehicle prices continue to be (see Figure

17). This has led to increases in total loss vehicle values as well. Unfortunately, with the semiconductor

chip shortage expected to continue into 2022, the industry may experience elevated total loss vehicle

loss costs for some time. Most vehicles needing collision repair work do not need semiconductor chips

replaced, however, other challenges with parts are facing insurers and repairers. Like many industries,

the automotive industry has moved to a just-in-time inventory system, which has proven to be challenged

significantly over the last year as consumer demand increased much faster than anyone had planned for.

Inventories had been drawn down from plants being closed at the outset of COVID, and then operating

at lower levels of production while trying to balance employee safety and production demand. With

all industries now scrambling to meet demand, all are facing the same challenges: higher raw material

prices, higher transportation costs from higher wages and fuel prices, record spot container shipping

rates (14 time higher now than during the same period in 2019), ¹1 vmore money and time to unload goods

at shipping ports, and shortage of employees on site.

In our sector, dealers, OEMs and aftermarket parts sellers have been operating with lower part

inventories. Demand for parts has rebounded faster than many of the parts manufacturers and

distributors expected, leading to an increase of “out of stock” from aftermarket or “backorder” scenarios


Figure 18: National Industry Repairable Appraisals - Average Cost per Part (includes all parts incl attachments across all part types)SOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.

Figure 17: Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index and Manheim Wholesale Used Vehicle Values and Bureau of Labor Consumer Price Index for Used Cars and Trucks (January 2006 – December 2021)SOURCE: WWW.MANHEIM.COM/CONSULTING/ AND WWW.BLS.GOV AND WWW.BLACKBOOK.COM

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Black Book Used Vehicle Retention Index Manheim BLS CPI Used Cars & Trucks (not seasonally adjusted)

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Figure 19: DRP Repairs: Driveable Estimate Sent to Vehicle In Days Average by Calendar MonthSOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.

for OEM parts. Even when parts are available, they may be stuck overseas where the issue is getting the

parts from the warehouse to the ports, onto the ship, and then unloaded and delivered here in the U.S.

With parts manufacturers paying significantly more for things like raw materials and shipping, the

average cost per part has increased across the board. The average cost per part across all part types

and all part components (including parts like hoods, clips, bumpers, air bags, etc.) risen over 6percent so

far in 2021 – the largest increase since 1997 (see Figure 18). At the same time growing complexity has led

to an increase in the average number of replacement parts per appraisal/repair, a trend heightened by an

increase in non-driveable claims.

Another challenge identified by the CRASH Network was repairers are facing additional challenges

in getting work scheduled into their facilities. In Q3 2021, their national average scheduling backlog

reported by repairers was 2.6 weeks in Q3 2021, a full week longer than shops reported 90 days earlier,

when the pre-pandemic Q3 average backlog was only 1.7 weeks. In addition, the percent of shops

reporting that they had no backlog dropped to only 5 percent versus 57 percent in Q2 2020 at the very

outset of the pandemic. Among the key issues repairers identified as causes behind the backlogs were

parts availability and a shortage of technicians.

Direct repair program repair data aggregated by CCC on behalf of its customers suggests this is

extending the time from when the estimate is complete to when the vehicle is scheduled in for repairs

(see Figure 19-20).

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Figure 20: DRP Repairs: Non-Driveable Estimate Sent to Vehicle In Days Average by Calendar MonthSOURCE: CCC INTELLIGENT SOLUTIONS INC.

CY2019 CY2020 CY2021

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Q4’2021 AND CY 2022 – WHAT MIGHT WE EXPECTAs we head into Q4 2021, it is pretty clear that the challenges facing our industry and others are unlike

any we’ve faced before. The COVID-19 pandemic resulted in unprecedented declines in miles driven in

CY 2020 and changing traffic patterns in CY 2021 that may be temporary or permanent. Many companies

continue to keep those employees that can work remote out of the office, delaying earlier plans to return

employees to the office in Q4 2021 to early CY 2022. These new traffic patterns have resulted in more

severe auto accidents and higher fatality and injury rates despite lower claims overall than the CY 2019

pre-pandemic benchmark.

Supply disruptions from COVID-19 continue to drive higher inflation in raw materials and labor shortages

and resultant higher wages continue to plague many industries, and no clear end is in sight. Businesses

continue to adapt, and resilience and innovation remain essential. Moving forward, businesses will need

to further evaluate key issues like supply-chain sourcing, hybrid work, and how to best take advantage

of rapidly evolving technologies like digital, AI, mobile and cloud to improve collaboration and drive

efficiencies back into the process.

CCC TRENDS

SOURCESThe information and opinions in this publication are for general information only, are subject to change and are not intended to provide

specific recommendations for any individual or entity. Although information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed

to be reliable, CCC does not guarantee its accuracy and it may be incomplete or condensed. CCC is not liable for any typographical

errors, incorrect data and/or any actions taken in reliance on the information and opinions contained in this publication. Note: Where

CCC Information Services Inc. is cited as source, the data provided is an aggregation of industry data related to electronic appraisals

communicated via CCC’s electronic network or from total loss valuations processed by CCC.

1. https://www.autocare.org/news/blog/post/market-insights-with-mike/2021/07/08/vehicle-miles-traveled---trends-and-drivers

2. Arity. “Life in the fast lane.” P. 5.

3. Ibid., p. 9.

4. Arity. “Life in the fast lane.” Cambridge Mobile Telematics. “Usage-Based Insurance: Steady Progress in an Unsteady World.” Presentation at Auto Insurance

Report Conference, September 2021.

5. https://www.autonews.com/manufacturing/latest-numbers-microchip-shortage-pace-new-factory-cuts-slows.

6. Calum MacRae. “The automotive industry’s chip crisis in numbers.” www.justauto.com, September 8, 2021.

7. “Cars.com Shoppers Logged a Record 30 Million Hours on the Platform Last Year, as More Americans Turn to Car Ownership.” March 20, 2021. https://www.cars.

com/articles/cars-com-data-survey-shows-pandemic-spurred-car-buying-433268/.

8. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/kbb-atp-august-2021/.

9. https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insights/used-vehicle-inventory-august-2021/

10. Ibid.

11. https://www.wsj.com/articles/rising-shipping-costs-are-companies-latest-inflation-riddle-11631784602

SUSANNA GOTSCHSenior Director, Industry Analyst

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