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With the support of the Government of Canada through the Federal Economic Development Agency for Southern Ontario.
Funding for the Rural Economic Development program was provided by the Government of Ontario
FINAL REPORT
Project Name: Highway # 7 East Economic Impact & Needs Analysis Study Submitted by: Kawartha Lakes CFDC (KLCFDC) Date: Spring 2019
Document Owner Project/Organization Role
Paul Reeds, Board Chair Kawartha Lakes CFDC
Andrew Wallen, General Manager/CEO Kawartha Lakes CFDC
Highway # 7 East Economic Impact & Needs Analysis Study Spring, 2019. © KLCFDC Inc
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Notice of Confidentiality
The content of the present report is private and confidential and cannot be reproduced, in full or in part, except with the consent of
the Kawartha Lakes CFDC. The recipient promises to preserve the confidential nature of the information contained in the present
document and will take all necessary actions to prevent non-authorized copying, divulgation or transmission, in part or in full, of this
information to unintended parties.
The recipient also promises not to use, modify, translate, adapt, convert or exploit the content of the present document, and not to
permit access without written consent from the Kawartha Lakes CFDC and its Board of Directors
Suite 211, 189 Kent Street West
Lindsay, Ontario K9V 5G6
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Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary .......................................................................................................10
2. Introduction ....................................................................................................................16
3. Highway 7 Regional Profile ...........................................................................................17
4. Methodology ..................................................................................................................22
5. Consultations .................................................................................................................24
5.1 Summary of Consultations ..................................................................................... 24
5.2 Identified Development Projects ............................................................................ 29
5.3 Ministry of Transportation of Ontario ...................................................................... 30
5.4 Highway 407 ETR .................................................................................................. 33
6. Benchmarking ................................................................................................................35
6.1 Purpose of the Benchmarking................................................................................ 35
6.2 Methodology .......................................................................................................... 35
6.3 Benchmarked Highways ........................................................................................ 36
6.3.1 ON Highway 11 ......................................................................................... 36
6.3.2 US Highway 29, WI (USA) ......................................................................... 37
6.3.3 US I-86, NY (USA) ..................................................................................... 38
6.4 Research Findings and Observations .................................................................... 40
6.4.1 Construction Timelines .............................................................................. 40
6.4.2 Traffic Volumes .......................................................................................... 41
6.4.3 Primary Changes in the Community .......................................................... 46
6.4.3.1 Business Growth ..........................................................................46
6.4.4 Population Growth ..................................................................................... 54
6.4.5 Industrial Development .............................................................................. 59
6.4.6 Service Sector Impacts .............................................................................. 59
6.4.7 Workforce Impacts ..................................................................................... 60
6.4.8 Tourism Expenditures ................................................................................ 63
6.4.9 Investment Attraction ................................................................................. 65
6.4.10 Land/Property Values ................................................................................ 65
6.5 Conclusion............................................................................................................. 66
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7. Data Analysis .................................................................................................................68
7.1 Traffic Patterns ...................................................................................................... 68
7.2 Forecasted Traffic Patterns ................................................................................... 72
7.2.1 MTO Data Set #1: Historical, Present and Future (car and truck) AADT .... 72
7.2.2 MTO Data Set #2: 2041 Forecasted High and Low (truck only) AADT ....... 76
7.2.3 MTO Data Set #2: 2041 Forecasted (car and truck) AADT ........................ 78
7.2.4 MTO Data Set #3: 2041 Forecasted (car and truck) AADT ........................ 80
7.3 Safety .................................................................................................................... 82
7.4 Forecasted Population Growth Patterns ................................................................ 85
7.5 Forecasted Residential Starts ................................................................................ 86
7.6 Tourism ................................................................................................................. 90
7.7 Summary ............................................................................................................... 93
8. Economic Impacts .........................................................................................................95
8.1 Economic Impacts from Survey Results ................................................................ 97
8.1.1 Direct Impacts ............................................................................................ 97
8.2 Economic Impacts for the Entire Corridor (from extrapolated results) .................... 98
8.3 Tourism Impacts .................................................................................................. 101
8.4 Housing Development Impacts ............................................................................ 101
8.5 Qualitative Comments from the Survey ............................................................... 104
8.6 Highway Construction Investment ....................................................................... 106
8.7 Summary ............................................................................................................. 108
9. Recommendations and Conclusion ........................................................................... 109
9.1 Recommendations ............................................................................................... 109
9.2 In Conclusion ....................................................................................................... 110
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List of Tables
Table 1 – Average cost per centre line kilometre ................................................................................................................................ 32
Table 2 – Highway construction timelines .......................................................................................................................................... 40
Table 3 – ON Highway 11 traffic capture point (legend) ..................................................................................................................... 41
Table 4 – Average annual daily traffic per mile along US Highway 29 ................................................................................................ 43
Table 5 – US I-86 AADT traffic counts during 1995, 1998 and 2001 .................................................................................................. 44
Table 6 – Summary of findings regarding trucking impacts, commuting patterns, and other impacts of US Highway 29 expansion ... 47 Table 7 – Communities that reported positive impacts and/or business growth along US Highway 86 (legend) ................................. 49
Table 8 – Description of business impacts along US Highway 86 ...................................................................................................... 50
Table 9 – Description of other business impacts along US Highway 86 ............................................................................................. 50
Table 10 – Description of other outcomes or new/expanded companies along US Highway 86 ......................................................... 51
Table 11 – Description of unchanged or loss of business activity along US Highway 86 .................................................................... 52
Table 12 – 10-year change in population growth along ON Highway 11 (1981-1991) ........................................................................ 54
Table 13 – 10-year change in population growth along ON Highway 11 (2006-2016) ........................................................................ 54
Table 14 – 20-year population changes in communities within 5 miles of US Highway 29 (1990 and 2000) ....................................... 57
Table 15 – Population changes from 1990-2000 along US Highway 86 corridor. ............................................................................... 58
Table 16 – Changes in business establishments and employment by county and communities along US Highway 86 (1995-2002) .. 61
Table 17 – Percent change in total employment between study areas compared to New York State ................................................. 62
Table 18 – Change in manufacturing employment between study area and New York State ............................................................. 62
Table 19 – Residential sales and median sale prices by County (1999-2001) .................................................................................... 66
Table 20 – Forecasted On/Off ramp activity to/from Highway 407 ETR once connected to Highway 115........................................... 81
Table 21 – Change in total household/party visits relative to total visitor spending ............................................................................. 92
Table 22 – Annual direct, indirect and induced impacts from surveys ................................................................................................ 97
Table 23 – Total Highway 7 Economic Impact ................................................................................................................................... 98
Table 24 – Tourism economic impacts along Highway 7 study area (2017) ..................................................................................... 101
Table 25 – Expected new housing starts between 2016 and 2041 ................................................................................................... 102
Table 26 – Calculated economic impact of anticipated housing starts between 2016-2041 .............................................................. 102
Table 27 – Impact on job creation, household income and indirect tax revenues based on anticipated housing starts between 2016-2041 103
Table 28 – Anticipated construction cost using MTO Parametric Estimating Guide .......................................................................... 107
Table 29 – Anticipated job creation from transportation infrastructure investment along the proposed priority segments of Highway 7 108
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List of Charts
Chart 1 – ON Highway 11, 5-year percent change in AADT before/after highway widening between Oro-Medente and North Bay ....... 42
Chart 2 – Comparison of average annual daily traffic (AADT) counts along the southern tier Expressway of I-86,
before/during/following highway widening Ccompletion in 1999 ......................................................................................................... 45
Chart 3 – Population change along ON Highway 11 (1961-2016) relative to completion of localized widening .................................. 55
Chart 4 – Change in population of Subsequent Census Population Figure following completion of local ON Highway 11 widening ... 56
Chart 5 – Total visitor spending within the Muskoka District Municipality (2012-2016) ....................................................................... 63
Chart 6 – Traveler expenditures along Highway 29 (1992-2001) ........................................................................................................ 64
Chart 7 – 1998 and 2016 AADT truck + car volumes along Highway 7 catchment area ..................................................................... 69
Chart 8 – Percent increase in traffic between 1998 and 2016 along Highway 7 catchment area ........................................................ 70
Chart 9 – 1998 and 2016 (actual) vs 2041 (forecasted) AADT combined truck + car volumes ........................................................... 73
Chart 10 – 2041 (forecasted) truck + car AADT volumes vs 2016 combined truck + car AADT volumes ............................................ 75
Chart 11 – Comparing 2016 and 2041 estimated low & high truck AADT along Highway 7 ................................................................ 77
Chart 12 – Forecasted 2041 (car & truck) AADT along Highway 7 against MTO forecasted low 2041 truck usage ............................ 79
Chart 13 – Comparison between reported accidents and the combined AADT average of 35 checkpoints along Highway 7 (1989-2016) 83
Chart 14 – Highway 7 accidents by property damage, injury and fatality (2014-2016) ........................................................................ 84
Chart 15 – Population projections (2016-2041) .................................................................................................................................. 87
Chart 16 – Forecasted number of total private dwellings by County (2016-2041) ............................................................................... 88
Chart 17 – Percent increase in private dwellings from 2016-2041 ...................................................................................................... 89
Chart 18 – Total household/party visits (2012-2016) .......................................................................................................................... 90
Chart 19 – Total annual visitor spending (2012-2016) ........................................................................................................................ 91
Chart 20 – Business sectors of survey respondents ........................................................................................................................... 96
Chart 21 – 2016 business counts per Township along/adjacent to Highway 7 between Brock Township and Carleton Place ............ 99
Chart 22 – 2016 employee counts per Township along/adjacent to Highway 7 between Brock Township and Carleton Place ......... 100
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List of Figures
Figure 1 – Map of Highway 11 four-laned corridor .............................................................................................................................. 36
Figure 2 – Map of Highway 29 four-laned corridor .............................................................................................................................. 38
Figure 3 – Map of US I-86 four-laned corridor .................................................................................................................................... 39
Figure 4 – ON Highway 11 traffic capture points (map) ...................................................................................................................... 41
Figure 5 – US I-86 Highway data collection sites ............................................................................................................................... 44
Figure 6 – Communities that reported positive impacts and/or business growth along US Highway 86 (Map) ................................... 49
Figure 7 – Daily commuter traffic patterns .......................................................................................................................................... 71
Figure 8 – Highway 407 Interchanges to support MTO forecasted modelling ..................................................................................... 80
Figure 9 – Population growth/decline by Census Division over 2017 to 2041 ..................................................................................... 85
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1. Executive Summary
As an outcome from the Eastern Ontario Transportation Needs Analysis (EOTNA) – Phase II Screening of Eastern Ontario Transportation
Needs (March 2016), the Kawartha Lakes Community Futures Development Corporation engaged the expertise of consulting firm Explorer
Solutions to undertake a study to assess economic impact and potential needs for the four-laning (twining) of Highway 7 between Brock
Township and Carleton Place in Eastern Ontario, which represents an approximate distance of 293 kilometres.
To better understand the demand for this type of enhanced transportation infrastructure, a series of consultations were held with
elected officials, CAO and planners, economic leaders, private developers, industry, tourism operators, retailers and business
leaders. Throughout this process, information was collected regarding current challenges/opportunities faced by communities in
today’s reality as it relates to Highway 7; information tied to how widening of Highway 7 would impact local communities and the
general planning process; and whether municipalities would be favourable to such a project.
In an effort to evaluate data obtained from the stakeholder consultation process, it was important to compare these findings with
forecasted information provided by the provincial government under the categories of forecasted population growth, estimated
residential development projects and anticipated highway traffic usage.
Population growth projections until 2041 were also used to better understand the potential demand (including high stress areas along
Highway 7) as a result of these higher populated areas. While three (3) of the six (6) counties (Hastings, Lennox and Addington &
Lanark) along the study corridor are predicted to realize a population increase of less than 15%, between 2016 and 2041, the
remaining three (3) counties (Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough and Frontenac) are expected to achieve much higher population growth
rates of 29%, 26% and 40% respectively over the same period. It is important to note that the City of Kingston’s CMA population was
extracted from the figures used to calculate and forecast the population of Frontenac County. In addition, Durham Region, which is
where the study area begins (on the west side of Highway 12) is forecasted to experience an increase in population growth of
approximately 37%.
While these increases in population take shape, it is important to identify and understand future development projects that could be
positively or negatively influenced by the potential of such widening of the highway. Along the Highway 7 corridor, a number of
proposed residential development projects were disclosed during the stakeholder consultation process and cross referenced against
provincial data, which totalled 41,447 new residential dwellings between 2016 and 2041. The approximation is based on an average
household size that was obtained from the 2016 Statistics Canada Census for the respective six counties along the Highway 7
corridor. Related to manufacturing and commerce, Centre Hastings is in discussion with investors for the Bonjour Boulevard
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Business Park plus the development of a large industrial park, as is Carleton Place; Drummond/North Elmsley Township would
potentially locate a commercial/industrial hub in the vicinity of Drummond Centre if the widening were to take place; Marmora has a
proposed tourism development project which entails a 2,000 acre mine just southeast of the town; and a new casino and 100-room
hotel is under construction in Peterborough, including a 20-acre future industrial development.
As population figures and neighbourhoods continue to increase, forecasted commercial truck and passenger vehicle activity along
the Highway 7 study area revealed significant increases in Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) volumes. The pattern of high
forecasted traffic patterns remained representative of the more heavily populated areas between the western edge of the study area
in Brock Township to the east side of Peterborough into Otonabee-South Monaghan. Using one dataset provided by MTO, traffic
activity between 1998 and 2016 increased by an average of 58% throughout the entire study area and is expected to increase a
further 29% between 2016 and 2041. On a more regional level, traffic activity throughout Kawartha Lakes increased by an average of
71%, Peterborough increased by 105% and the Perth to Carleton Place stretch increased by 77% on average during the period of
1998 and 2016. Looking into the future, the AADT volumes for these same regional corridors are expected to continue to increase. In
evaluating a secondary dataset provided by MTO and by over estimating truck traffic activity at 25%, the prevailing stretch of highway
between Kawartha Lakes and Otonabee-South Monaghan will exceed 20,000 AADT and there are four (4) areas in particular that are
expected to surpass 40,000 AADT and the Highway 7 and Highway 12 intersection to break 60,000 AADT.
In converting this truck traffic activity which was calculated based on being 11% of total vehicles in one data set from MTO, even if
we increased that amount to 25%, which is a very high figure to use, it does provide for more conservative total vehicle counts. When
we then deployed it with the 2041 forecasted low truck activity figures, (both low and high truck ADDT figures were provided) we
begin to see the entire corridor from the intersection of Highways 7 and 12 in Brock Township East to Otonabee-South Monaghan
remaining well above the 20,000 AADT threshold with only three small areas dipping slightly below.
While an Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) volume of 10,000 may be sufficient for a highway four-laning to be considered, insight
from MTO suggests that in Central Region, volumes must be close to, if not exceeding, 20,000 AADT before a proposed highway is
widened to four (4) lanes. All widening work is prioritized to ensure that the province is receiving the best value for its infrastructure
investment dollars. However, it is accepted that operational safety can carry as much weight as volume/capacity and as a result,
safety-related concerns will always be a priority.
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In considering road safety along the Highway 7 catchment area, there had been an average of 394 recorded motor vehicle collisions per
year between years 1989 and 2010 along 35 data collection sites; however between years 2012 and 2016, the entire stretch of the
Highway 7 study area experienced an average of 574 motor vehicle collisions. This suggests that highway safety is still a key concern.
In an attempt to better understand the ROI for funding such an undertaking, it was important to understand what economic impacts
could be derived from housing developments in local communities. Employing a formula provided by the Ontario Home Builders’
Association (OHBA), a series of economic impacts were calculated based on every 10,000 new housing starts on the economy. In
considering the forecasted 41,447 new housing starts until 2041 along the Highway 7 corridor, this has the potential to generate
approximately $13.68 billion in gross domestic product, $3.01 billion in manufacturing, $1.27 billion in the wholesale, retail,
transportation and warehousing sectors, the creation of 79,993 jobs, $5.39 billion in household income and $232.1 million in indirect
tax revenues. Worth noting that over 50% of this growth is planned for the City of Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough County areas.
Additionally, it is estimated that an average of $61,600 in ancillary spending (i.e., spending by purchasers on items other than the
actual house and land) is generated by the average housing transaction in Canada. This equates to $2.03 billion based on the
forecasted 41,447 new housing starts cited above.
The effects that housing developments have on other sectors revealed a positive influence on the manufacturing; construction; trade;
finance, insurance and real estate; professional services and other sectors.
While the tourism industry is still rebounding, it still has a substantial impact on the region with total visitor spending calculated at
approximately $790.4 million. This, in turn, stimulates direct, indirect and induced impacts in the amounts of 6,262 full-time employees
with supporting incomes of $248.1 million and $104.3 million in taxes paid while contributing $475.4 million to Ontario’s GDP.
Data obtained and extrapolated from the stakeholder consultation process revealed direct, indirect and induced economic impacts
that were evaluated and calculated based on feedback provided from the survey and cross referenced against data obtained from
the Workforce Development Board and Statistics Canada among other sources to ensure that the data was representative of the
entire study corridor. The findings revealed that over 24,000 companies are located along the Highway 7 corridor region with an
economic impact of approximately 183,870 employees representing an income level of $5.5 billion, taxes in the amount of $78.5
million and a GDP of $90.2 billion.
As we look at future potential economic impacts, insights provided by participating businesses revealed that most businesses are
positive about the future. As per a recent Eastern Ontario economic study, 71% of respondents are somewhat to very optimistic
about the future of Eastern Ontario’s economy; 58% of responders believe that the economic strength of their business sector is
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showing strong or steady growth; 75% indicate that they are somewhat to very optimistic that their business will be stronger in the
next three (3) to five (5) years over what it is today; and approximately 32% believe that Eastern Ontario is a very good to excellent
place to grow a business. In the categories of new real estate investment, staffing needs, research and development, sales growth,
new markets and succession planning, 55% of businesses anticipate moderate to significant growth in these areas. Only 3% of
businesses anticipate a decrease in their sales and staffing needs, however, they retain their emphasis on research and
development and sales growth.
To further understand and assess the effects highway widening has on local communities, a benchmarking exercise was undertaken
that evaluated three (3) highway corridors of similar length, number of adjacent towns and which was identified as an existing or
planned future link for increased freight and logistics. These highways included Highway 11 in Ontario, Highway 29 in Wisconsin and
I-86 in New York State.
Traffic activity, as a result of the highway twinning revealed a noticeable increase through smaller towns, the closer these towns were
situated to larger urban centres.
Business growth and business impacts in towns where the major arterial highway was 4-laned were often measured in the form of
new business investment, local business expansion, number of new jobs created and number of jobs retained. It was found that
business growth activity revealed a higher prevalence in communities closer to the larger urban centres.
When evaluating changes in population growth along the benchmarked jurisdictions, all but one Ontario-based community
experienced positive growth along Highway 11. For Highway 29 in Wisconsin, 24 of the 38 communities experienced population
growth; however, along I-86 in New York State, the corridor experienced a marginal decrease in population. It is still recognized that
the ease of travel to and through communities situated along twinned highways can prompt residents to pursue higher paying
employment opportunities at a further distance as a result of a more efficient, safer and faster road transportation network.
Regarding benchmarked tourism expenditures, Highway 11 in Ontario experienced two (2) years of levelled-off activity post completion
of its highway widening in 2012, followed by positive year-over-year increases in visitor spending between 2014 and 2016.
Within the United States, construction of the U.S. interstate highway system had positive and large effects on U.S. productivity, but
such effects diminished after the completion of the system as much of the supply chain and employment activity derived from the
construction had came to a close. However, along with improving economic outcomes, the system also heavily influenced population
patterns and sped suburbanization of the population and the decline of central cities.
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Researchers found that, beyond the value of the interstate system, highway infrastructure had caused positive economic outcomes
for those industries that use it more intensively.1
Key highlights from the benchmarking exercise revealed that:
a) Housing development is the first generator of future economic growth as industry and commerce/retail will follow on population;
b) Highway widening often serves two (2) main purposes: a) Make a region more accessible (for all types of activities) or b) Support growth already happening in an economic corridor and make it a safer destination;
c) Communities must not rely solely on the widening and then hope for growth – a structured plan and approach is required to leverage the benefits of the Highway;
d) Urban centres seem to collect a good portion of the growth tied to their services and population base; and e) Population growth within urban centres has a rippling effect on nearby smaller communities, which prompts them to grow
faster which in turn necessitates highway infrastructure and enhancements. In comparing and then assessing the key benchmarking findings within the scope of this study’s assessment of future activities,
including population growth, housing starts, commercial and passenger vehicle activity, and projected GDP and employment
impacts, we believe that there is one immediate area that can be identified as ready for consideration to twin today. Then there are
two (2) additional segments of Highway 7 which could also be given significant attention as having been identified as priority key
development areas. Our findings and opinions are based on government projections through to 2041, stakeholder consultations, and
established modelling deployed for aspects of this analysis.
The first segment of the proposed highway twining entails the portion of Highway 7 between Highway 12 in Brock Township through
to and including the North Monaghan Parkway/Sir Sandford Fleming Drive interchange at Highways 7 and 115 in the City of
Peterborough. Worth noting is that the section travelling further east to our recommended conclusion at Highway 34, is currently four-
laned, bringing the competed length to a total of almost 83 kilometres which includes 70 kilometres of four-laning.
Beyond this, secondary considerations should be given for twinning the remaining stretch of Highway 7 through to Norwood, as well
as to the eastern-most section not currently four-laned between Carleton Place and Perth.
1 Highway Infrastructure and the Economy: Implications for Federal Policy. Howard J. Shatz, Karin E. Kitchens, Sandra Rosenbloom, Martin Wachs. 2011
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While not part of our study area, a further recommendation is being suggested to gain a better understanding of the potential
economic and community benefits to by extending from Highway 7 in Brock Township westerly to connect with Highway 404 in East
Gwillimbury and possibly even Highway 400 in Bradford West Gwillimbury.
Major infrastructure projects across Canada similar to the Highway 7 project under consideration, often require alignment with,
support of and approval from both provincial and federal levels of government. The questions asked by policy makers are often two
(2) pronged. Not only do they want to know the effect of transportation on additional economic development, they also want to know
the transportation needs to support future growth. As a nation’s transportation system matures and competition for government funds
intensifies, the issue is not simply where to build another segment of highway. The questions have become more complex and are
often tied to: the modes of transportation that are most cost-effective in meeting a region’s transportation needs; how ministries of
transportation prioritize their highway dollars to maximize economic growth; the trade-off between additional growth in an urban area
and the cost of expanding transportation systems to accommodate greater growth outside the main urban area; and the effect
expansion of transportation systems have on the need to invest in other types of infrastructure.2
2 Understanding the Impact of Transportation on Economic Development. Randall Eberts, W. E. Upjohn Institute
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2. Introduction
In an effort to respond to increasing volumes of traffic and to further stimulate economic activity in Eastern Ontario and in particular,
areas along Highway 7, the Kawartha Lakes Community Futures Development Corporation is interested in determining the merits of
making a case to undertake the widening (four-laning) of Highway 7 between Brock Township and Carleton Place in Lanark County.
To assess the likelihood of success, an economic impact and potential needs study was commissioned with an objective of
estimating the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts generated along the Highway 7 corridor, while also providing a
perspective of the future economic impacts that could be anticipated by widening Highway 7 to four (4) lanes.
The increased demand and reliance placed on Highway 7 in recent years is beginning to have many questioning its ability to remain
as a safe and efficient transportation corridor. Small towns are beginning to blossom with increased residential development coming
from some of the larger metropolitan areas on both end points of the highway catchment area. As a result, industry is becoming more
attracted to these areas because of the access to untapped talent pools and lower cost of lands for development.
At the same time, Highway 401 between Cobourg and the Ontario/Québec border is a four (and sometimes six) lane highway, which
is experiencing its own slowdowns and congested areas due to the increasing volume of traffic, frequent accidents and complete
shutdowns. This in turn has many thinking about alternate route options between the GTA and Ottawa and extending into Montréal.
Additionally, areas north of Highway 7 (such as Haliburton County, Peterborough County, and the Kawarthas) become popular
alternative cottage country destinations from the Muskokas for Southern and Eastern Ontario residents. Increased demand for safe,
reliable and efficient road transportation networks such as Highway 7 will need to be evaluated to assess its potential for
accommodating these growing demands.
By providing a snapshot of current economic activity today and comparing it against anticipated and planned economic activity over
the next ten (10) to twenty (20) years, this economic impact study will become a valuable tool for determining the needs and level of
interest for moving forward with efforts to widen Highway 7 to four (4) lanes.
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3. Highway 7 Regional Profile
The first designation of Highway 7 happened in 1920, when the road from Sarnia to
Guelph was officially sanctioned as a highway. Highway 7 was extended from Guelph
all the way to Peterborough during the 1920s. When the Great Depression chilled the
global economy in the 1930s, Highway 7 was extended from Peterborough to Perth in
a government relief project intended to ease the unemployment rates. During this
effort, thousands of people from all across central Ontario were employed to excavate
the countryside by hand. Teams of men would dredge muskeg swamps, mostly using
hand tools, putting up with the harsh winter conditions or summer biting insects. In
1932, the highway was completed giving Ontario its newest east-west corridor.
Up until then, Highway 2 was the only east–west route. Later (1961), Perth finally
linked up with Ottawa by designating older roads as Highway 7 and forming the
continuous link from Sarnia to Ottawa. Bypasses began to happen in the 1950s through the 1970s as the significant flow of traffic
stalled out when the highway went through local town centres. Towns such as Lindsay, Peterborough, and Carleton Place were all
bypassed creating changes to the economic flow that naturally follows the course of major thoroughfares. There was a small gap in
Peterborough caused by the downloading that was cleaned up by designating parts of Highway 115 as Highway 7 in 2003.
Highway 7 was born out of necessity and has a history that matches the growth of Ontario.
Today, sections of Highway 7 were downloaded onto local municipalities in the Highway
downloading that took place in 1997-1998. While the sections connecting Sarnia and London are
gone, the easterly portion remains to this day as one of the most important roads in Ontario. It is
the only major thoroughfare north of the 401 that moves traffic in the same direction. Having a
total length of 536 km, Highway 7 is one of Ontario’s longest highways and is considered to be a
part of the Central Ontario Route.
Currently, Highway 7 has two (2) distinct legs, the western one from Elginfield to Norval, which is
154 km long, and the 380 km long eastern portion that begins in Markham and terminates in
Ottawa.
Rock blasting on Highway 7 between Madoc
and Perth in 1932
Kings Highway 7 road sign, circa
1950
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The 63 km long “middle leg” that breaks up Highway 7 into two (2) sections is known as Highway 407. The 407 Highway, which itself
has two (2) distinct sections, includes the privately leased section by the company, 407 Express Toll Route (ETR), that goes from
Burlington to Pickering and the 31 km section owned and operated by the provincial government known as 407 East that ends in
Clarington.
As municipalities grew and the need to alleviate traffic congestion was realized, the “twinning” of Highway 7 from Ottawa to Carleton
Place began in 2006. The new highway was modeled after the 400 series of highways and that one needed to use on and off ramps to
gain access to the highway. The construction project completed its final phase in 2011 and boasts a speed limit of 100 km/hour where
the majority of Highway 7 has an 80 km/hour speed limit. Peterborough also has a four-lane bypass to help alleviate traffic flow.
Issues
Highway 7 is not without its issues. Due to the fact that there has been an increase in
traffic during the last several years, Highway 7 can see long wait times for commuters
trying to enter the system. Another area of concern is safety both during winter
conditions as well as during the bustle of the summer cottage season. Mike Perry, Past-
President of the Lindsay and District Chamber of Commerce states that: “There are
some dangerous spots along Highway 7 through Lindsay, Manilla, Oakwood and
Omemee, which really need to be addressed.” It is not uncommon for commuters to
exceed the posted speed limits and pass aggressively on their way to the cottage.
This results in traffic accidents similar to those found on Highway 69 north of Parry
Sound (which is currently being “twinned” to Sudbury to help alleviate this as well as
other traffic issues). It is also very hard to turn “left” off the highway in many parts of
Highway 7. This may be attributed to the fact some commuters are unfamiliar with the paint schemes that depict the difference
between passing lanes and turning lanes.
Glennis Harwig, a well-known Lanark County farmer and advocate, states, “When there's snow or slush on the road, it's not always
clear a turning lane isn't a passing lane, she said…. travelling from Perth toward Carleton Place, you take your life in your hands
sitting in the middle of the road waiting to turn left."
Highway 7 expanded to four lanes near
Peterborough
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Economic Drivers
Highway 7 has served as an economic driver since its inception. Throughout human history, migration has led to new settlements.
Trade routes were established amongst these settlements and the flow of goods commenced. Two (2) things generally affect the
rate of trade; the availability of quality goods and the transportation costs.
The golden age for most downtown communities in Ontario occurred in the 1950s and the 1960s and Highway 7 played a role in this.
As a major route, taking people from Toronto (GTA) to eastern Ontario, this flow of traffic brought increased foot traffic to storefronts in
small and large towns along the route. As traffic increased, the flow became stagnant as too many vehicles were trying to get through
these towns and choke points were created. Bypasses were created in the late 1950s to the 1970s to alleviate the traffic flow issues but
came at a price. Many of those small and medium businesses that depended upon a certain number of flows through traffic were now
unable to sustain themselves after the bypasses went through. Businesses such as motels, bait shops, diners and specialty retail
stores closed down and moved to communities that were fortunate enough to become “gateway” communities to eastern Ontario’s
cottage country. These gateway communities thrived under this new distinction and a new service industry culture emerged.
The addition of Highway 401 in the south starting in the 1960s led to lower usage for Highway 7. Using multiple lanes and high
speeds, the 401, which does experience its own number of traffic issues, has still become the preferred route across southern
Ontario. This further decrease of traffic along the Highway 7 east corridor has had a negative impact on local economies. The
documentary called “The Lost Highway”3 films people and places that were forced to make the tough decision on whether to leave or
try to hang on. Many who participated in the documentary say Highway 401 is mostly to blame for the loss of commuters.
There is reason to see a bright future, as growth is expected starting in 2020 when the Highway 407 planned extension reaches
completion. This extension will connect the current 407 to Highway 115/35, which is just south of Peterborough. The resurgence of
traffic into the Peterborough area and beyond will bring the much-needed additional volume of people and goods that create
commerce. The question remains as to whether Highway 7, as it currently stands, is able to handle this additional traffic flow or will
further “twinning” of Highway 7 be necessary?
3 http://thelosthighway.ca/
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Highway 7 Main Eastern Towns and Cities
Lindsay is a small city of 20,354 people (2016 census). It lies 43 km east of Peterborough. When Victoria County and its townships
amalgamated, it became the City of Kawartha Lakes, with a 2001 population of 69,179 and became the sixth largest city in Canada,
in terms of area. Lindsay is the hub for business and commerce in their region with agriculture being the dominant economic driver.
Lindsay has 20 companies with more than 100 employees which encompass a variety of businesses from a multitude of industries,
yet, many constitute the area’s manufacturing sector. Seventy-five percent (75%) of the city’s municipal land is agricultural when you
include forestry. The second economy of note is tourism. Lindsay boasts a robust tourism trade capitalizing on the many fish filled
lakes in the region. Canoeing, water skiing, and fishing are the primary activities by tourists and cottage owners alike. Lindsay is the
home of Fleming College’s Frost Campus which boasts academic strengths in the fields of geomatics, GIS, waste water treatment
and other natural resources sciences.
The City of Peterborough, with a population of 81,032 (2016 census), lies on the banks of the Otonabee River. Peterborough is
125 km northeast of Toronto and is 270 km southwest of Ottawa. A series of rapids and waterfalls made it an early attraction for
settlers for lumber mills as well as cheap hydro power generation. It was a city ahead of its time when it was dubbed the “Electric
City” due to being the first in Canada with electric streetlights. Manufacturing and technology still play the prominent role in
Peterborough’s economy. Large multi-national companies such as General Electric, Siemens, PepsiCo and Quaker moved to
Peterborough to take advantage of this cheap and reliable power source. Peterborough boasts two (2) post-secondary educational
institutions, Trent University and Fleming College, both of which are highly regarded as quality institutions and provide the area with
an educated workforce including intellectual properties as well as research and development.
Perth has a population of 5,930 (2016
census). Originally a military settlement
officially started after the events of the
War of 1812, the town has the distinction
of having the last fatal duelling contest
1833. Being just 85 km from downtown
Ottawa, Perth has a vibrant manufacturing
community for local, national, and
international markets. Businesses both
large and small locate in Perth for
economic and strategic reasons.
Town of Perth
21
Companies can access international markets and take advantage of a stable, educated workforce. Multinational companies such as
3M Canada, Alban International, Wills Transfer as well as OMYA Canada Inc. all make their home in Perth.
Carleton Place is 46 km west of downtown Ottawa and has a population of 10,644 (2016 census). It is located at the crossroads of
Highway 15 and Highway 7. Carleton Place was able to take advantage of the high-tech boom that happened in the Ottawa region.
Its proximity to Kanata, coupled with the new four-lane Highway 7 has enabled this high-tech sector and specialty machining shops
to flourish in the Carleton Place area.
According to the Carleton Place Strategic Plan, “Transportation efforts should be focused on developing commuter services to
Ottawa and increasing safety along Carleton Place’s major arteries, especially Highway 7”. The expected housing boom in Carleton
Place, that is mainly due to the completion of the Highway 7 expansion, has enabled the Town to become a new “bedroom
community” for the Ottawa region. According to Louis Antonakos, Mayor of Carleton Place, “Growth projections of approximately
three thousand new homes being built over the coming years.” It is safe to assume that the increased flow of traffic has directly led
to and supported the growth of the Ottawa region as a whole.
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4. Methodology
The main objective of this Economic Impact Study is to estimate the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts generated today
along the Highway 7 corridor and the evolution of these impacts that a potential widening to a four-lane road could potentially generate.
This mandate started out with a review of the past studies to fully understand the breath of discussions, research and consultation
that have already occurred. Follow-up discussions with the client’s team and key Ontario East leaders enabled our team to gain a
deeper understanding of the opportunities and challenges.
A large consultation process was undertaken to assess both the qualitative impacts of the potential widening and the quantitative
impacts. Through a series of focus groups, elected officials, CAOs, Town/County planners, local manufacturers and retailers,
chambers of commerce and other economic leaders were interviewed and provided the opportunity to voice their opinions on the
opportunities and challenges of such an undertaking.
In support of the focus groups, numerous of one-on-one meetings and interviews were also held with private developers, business
leaders, MTO, OPP staff and municipal leaders. These rounds of meetings provided strong input with regards to the qualitative
impacts related to the widening of Highway 7.
Starting from an initial list of 700 companies provided by local economic development offices, chamber of commerce and CFDC, a
web-based survey was prepared and distributed to over 300 businesses along Highway 7.
The survey focused on quantitative information pertaining to the number of employees per company, wages and salaries, annual
revenues, percentage and value of work outsourced, value of services and manufactured goods purchased in the region and the
province. The survey also addressed the impacts of visitors (transient traffic) in the region with the objective of estimating total
spending and investment habits of visitors in the region.
In support of the data collection and consultations activities, a benchmarking exercise was conducted to evaluate the impacts of
other highway widening projects in North America.
23
The objective of the benchmarking was to obtain information on these six (6) main topics: 1) Required steps to obtain funding and the
decision to move forward, 2) Traffic volume changes (5-year curve), 3) Economic Impact on the region (5-year curve), 4) Main challenges
encountered, 5) Main changes in the community (business, housing, commerce, academia, others) and the impact on tourism.
Once all of this information was collected, our team calculated the economic impacts of widening Highway 7 using the Input/Output
model from Statistics Canada. This model is favoured for analyzing the regional economy and estimates the share of each industry's
purchases that are supplied by local firms (versus those outside the study area).
In the Economic Impact study, we concentrated information gathering and statistical data on direct and indirect effects. Direct effects
are a result of the money initially spent in the study region by the businesses and/or organizations being studied, whereas indirect
effects are the results of business-to-business transactions indirectly caused by the direct effects. Businesses initially benefiting from
the direct effects will subsequently increase spending at other local businesses. The indirect effect is a measure of this increase in
business-to-business activities.
24
5. Consultations
As part of the benchmarking exercise, a series of consultations were held with elected officials, CAO and planners, economic
leaders, private developers, industry, tourism, retail and business leaders. The following section presents some of the key qualitative
impacts, main feedbacks and testimonies received. We grouped responses based on a series of pre-determined questions.
5.1 Summary of Consultations
Q1 – What are the challenges/opportunities your community faces today with Highway 7?
• Widening of the highway would allow for more safety for travellers and residents – safety must come first – truck would
probably make less use of smaller road – it would facilitate east-west movements and provide an alternate route.
• A few Towns have industrial park projects along the Highway 7 corridor including Centre Hastings and Carleton Place. There
are larger businesses looking for highway exposure/profile and could benefit from Highway 7 widening.
• Communities bordering Highway 7 wants to maintain easy access on and off to facilitate access by travellers and residents.
• Highway 7 is the main road for oversized loads and large loads – this fact would need to be integrated in the redesign if the
Highway is widened.
• Large new housing development (170 homes already and 600 planned for the future) in Norwood, up to 80 homes in Perth and
other housing development are coming in 2018-2019.
• In many places along Highway 7, communities are evaluating various ways by which to reduce the speed of traffic which effects
the movement of goods and people through the area.
• The Highway 7 environment is not pedestrian-friendly and MTO seems to show little receptiveness in integrating pedestrian-
friendly measures or a more urban approach. Children and people who cross Highway 7 from Town of Centre Hasting to go
to McDonald’s and Tim Hortons – similar situation in Perth.
• There are lots of properties (both commercial, industrial, agricultural or residential) with direct access onto Highway 7. The
project would need to figure that in the redesign, and, who would cover the cost of these secondary roads?
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• Highway 7 has been branded “the lost highway” or “the Highway of broken dreams” due to the numerous business places that
closed since the widening of the 401 and the opening of the 416.
• Marmora, Norwood, Havelock and Madoc raise concerns on the faith of their downtown if their town get bypassed – most
have limited opportunities to widen Highway 7 through the Town – keep the bypass close to town seems the only logical
option.
• There are presently a multitude of issues on Highway 7 including many accidents at the intersection of Highway 7 and
Highway 41, large backlog (2 to 3 kilometres) on weekends entering and leaving Carleton Place (junction of Highway 7 and
Highway 15), turning from Highway 41 onto Highway 7 (4 to 5 kilometres), intersections of 37 and 62 would need to be widen
and backlogs on 15, 28, 30 and 62 on weekends and traffic keeps expanding. Widening would expand the volume of traffic on
these secondary roads.
• Many successful businesses are located on Highway 7 in the smaller communities. What would be the fate of these
businesses with a bypass or a secondary lane? Highway 7 is a huge economic lifeline of these communities and even to
larger Towns like Peterborough.
• Municipalities located closer to Highway 401 would prefer a widening of 401 to six (6) lanes further north.
• Four-laning between Peterborough and Lindsay may favour Go-Transit bus and future rail link. The Kawartha Lake
community would prefer a widening of Highway 35 to the 115 and north with many traffic issues on weekends. MTO is
planning to widen Highway 7 west and south of Lindsay (from the junction with Highway 35 to Cunningham’s corner).
• Many questions were raised on the types of highway, Highway 7 would become if expanded (similar to what was done with
the 400 series or Highway 11).
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Q2 – What information do you have from MTO?
Information obtained in response to this question was collected during the consultation process and has not been validated with the
MTO. For context, this question was directed at municipalities that are situated along the Highway 7 corridor.
• MTO’s objective is seen as moving cars and vehicles and it is expected that they would have supporting feasibility and traffic
studies, and emergency response plans in place.
• It is likely that MTO should be working on the redesign of the Highway 7 and Highway 41 intersection in Kaladar.
• It is likely that MTO should have already purchased land between Peterborough and Norwood to expand the existing highway
to four (4) lanes.
• MTO has an 800-metre setback along the Highway 7 corridor and they would have to be involved in all decisions and
developments within that set back.
• We understand that MTO has allowed some communities to have “Connecting Link Agreements” giving them decision
powers, but also the maintenance responsibilities and cost on a stretch of Highway 7 (mainly in town).
• It is believed that some of MTO’s primary decision factors for supporting highway expansion are influenced by safety, vehicle
volume and issues related to intersections.
• It is understood that Highway 7 is a limited access route and that MTO is not creating any new on/off access points.
• It is believed that MTO will be doing their master provincial transportation plan and it would be important to get this project in
their documents.
• There is a need to understand if MTO will still take care of any stretches of Highway 7 that are bypassed?
• We are interested in clarification around the following elements:
o Who would pay for the turning lanes;
o Consider adding more passing lane before going to full four (4) lanes;
o Must have a plan to ensure the visibility of neighbouring villages; and
o Try to keep some of the natural settings.
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Q3 - How would the widening of Highway 7 impact your community and elements to include in the general planning
process?
• The widening would provide for: a better access to tourism centres, reduce travel time to Ottawa by a good 20 minutes, a
safer environment, taking some strain off other arterial roads, entice people to develop adjacent lands versus sitting on them.
• Many communities have projects they would undertake at the same time as the widening construction (examples: Perth –
infrastructures and utilities passing under Highway 7, Drummond/North-Elmsley – Township commercial and industrial hub,
Bon Echo Park looking to be a four-season destination, multiple private development projects along the entire corridor, land
values are going up).
• Growth is happening at both ends of Highway 7 (Peterborough to Norwood and Carleton Place to Perth) – suggest starting
the widening at both ends and moving inward after that.
• The proposed new route for VIA Rail would also impact the movement of residents, tourists, cottagers and some cargo. This
is felt to further enhance the Highway 7 project.
• Communities may need to brand themselves and develop strategies and signage to entice travellers to stop. The Ontario
Government should provide funding to communities to support such marketing and communication efforts.
• The future of transportation (driverless cars, buses, drones) should be considered in the decision-making process.
• The widening may create the following issues: Will it be tolled? Would it impact pedestrian-friendly access/options,
environmental issues along the future corridor including new required bridges, noise issues if Highway 7 passes too close to
or in town?
• Many questions were raised on the faith of connecting roads, of truck routes and truck volumes, on creating the right type and
number of exits and entrances, need better over and underpasses.
• Many communities (Lindsay, Norwood, Havelock, Marmara, Perth, Centre Hastings) are already seeing housing and
subdivisions going up. The impact is visible on the traffic volume travelling Highway 7. The Town of Lindsay in the City of
Kawartha Lakes anticipates 20,000 new residents in the next twenty (20) years, which is the equivalent of adding
approximately 8,000-9,000 new homes to the area.
28
• A widening would need to consider cycling/hiking, ATV and snowmobile trails and paths along Highway 7.
• Greenbelt is limiting town expansion, would the Province revisit this situation with widening of highway. In parallel, more
servicing required to areas that would see expanded/new residential growth.
• Affordable housing is a concern in some communities – need to better understand the impact that Highway 7 would have on
increasing real estate values.
Q4 – Would you be favourable to such a project?
Note: the comments below are extracts from the consultations – no official letters of support have been asked or provided for this
report.
• We heard from the following communities that showed an immediate positive interest to Highway 7: Frontenac County;
Madoc Township; Norwood (with a preferred southern bypass along County Road 42); Marmora; Peterborough; Durham
Region (with extending Highway 7 to Highway 404 and maybe 400); and Addington-Highlands (with no bypass of Kaladar).
• Conversely, we also heard from those who were not positive about a Highway 7 widening project. This included Kawartha
Lakes (who also felt the four laning of Highway 35 was equally necessary); and the Township of Havelock-Belmont-Methuen.
Furthermore, both Northumberland County and Havelock-Belmont-Methuen Township would prefer the six-laning of Highway
401 in Eastern Ontario.
Other questions and comments rose throughout the consultations
• Will Highway 7A be considered as part of the project?
• The Ontario East Wardens Caucus should be involved in the project.
• Be aware of the new provincial growth plan (May 2017) which caps growth areas to 10 hectares and 5 for residential.
• Need to be mindful of pedestrian traffic at intersection of 7 and 62. Feds and the province want to increase pedestrian traffic,
but MTO doesn’t.
• Highway 7 has turned into a milk run between Peterborough and Ottawa with the number of lights and speed reductions.
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• Need a traffic light at the intersection of 7 and 41 (very bad in the summer).
• In Carleton Place, along Highway 7, a MTO Access Management Plan is to shut down the majority of entrances to the
commercial district in town as they are looking to improve highway safety. The study would require a roundabout at the corner
at Highway 7 and Highway 15, which could be a 2-3 step process. In pre-consultations for redevelopment of those properties,
commercial lots of interest included such business activities as restaurants, hotels, tire repair shops, vehicle dealerships and
other commercial type businesses, however they were on hold until a study was completed to improve highway safety. Roads
behind will need to be serviced, which should be sorted out first.
• Just east of the OPP station on Highway 7 is 5.3 and 4.7 acres of serviced land, which has some interest for retail
development. May want to consider rezoning for development of industry. The widening of Highway 7 would be an attractor
for this not to mention retail in general.
5.2 Identified Development Projects
Throughout the consultation process, a series of development projects were reported from private developers and municipalities,
many of which are in the planning or development stage. A mix of both large and small development projects were cited, but of
particular interest was the approximate 8,000- 9,000 homes that were expected in Lindsay and the City of Kawartha Lakes over the
next twenty (20) years in addition to the 2,000 homes planed for Carleton Place over the same period. For comparative purposes,
forecasted housing starts were calculated for all six (6) counties within the catchment area using forecasted population growth figures
from the Ministry of Finance and divided by the average household size (as reported in the 2016 Statistics Canada Census.) The
breakdown of the projected 41,447 residential housing starts along the Highway 7 catchment area is detailed in Table 25. Of the
combined number of forecasted housing developments that were calculated using data obtained from the Ministry of Finance, we are
aware of more than one third of the planned projects as noted during the consultation process, some of which are expected to
outpace the provincial projections. Furthermore, nearly half of all forecasted housing developments are expected to take place in the
Kawartha Lakes to Peterborough corridor.
While we were able to also collect a number of manufacturing and commercial opportunities, there is currently no way to quantify the
full extent of this kind of planned development along the corridor. Some examples of projects that were identified during the
stakeholder consultation process include: a new Casino and 100-room hotel that is under construction in Peterborough plus a 20-
acre future industrial development; the Township of Addington Highlands has recently authorized permits for commercial investment
in Kaladar; Centre Hastings is in discussion with investors (large chains) for the Bonjour Boulevard Business Park; the Town is also
planning to develop a large industrial park at the corner of St-Lawrence and Highway 7; Carleton Place is planning an industrial park
30
in the vicinity of Highway 7 and Highway 15; and in Marmora, the Northland Power Project is a potential new power and storage
facility that is awaiting a provincial contract and represents a billion dollar project that would bring 800 jobs for construction and 50
full-time employees to handle day-to-day operations
5.3 Ministry of Transportation of Ontario
An important element of this study involved consultation with the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario (MTO). This involved the
collection of information in-person, by telephone, email correspondence and online research. It is acknowledged that the MTO is
willing to work with its municipal partners and stakeholders in a ‘team’ approach and look to find solutions that benefit all parties at
the early stages of land use planning. Additionally, the highway system plays a key role in building strong communities and
supporting Ontario’s economy.
Therefore, limiting access connections and reducing sprawl are important factors to preserve the safety, efficiency and sustainability
of our provincial highways for people and goods movement.
Without effective access management, the function and character of highway corridors can deteriorate rapidly. Failure to manage
access is associated with the following problems:
• Increase in vehicular collisions
• Reduction in highway efficiency
• Increased commute times, fuel consumption and vehicular emissions as numerous access connections and traffic signals
intensify congestion along the highway system
On the one hand, MTO’s mandate is to preserve the safety and efficiency of Ontario’s provincial highway system and the Ontario
government’s investment in the highway infrastructure. On the other hand, MTO’s goal is to do this in a way that supports economic
development. The result is a balancing act to try to achieve the optimal balance between preserving the highway system and
enabling development, including complete communities, intensification and a more compact urban form.4
MTO’s annual process for evaluating expansion programs entails a framework that includes a wide range of criteria including:
• Improving travel time
• Improving safety
• Providing economic benefits
4 Highway Access Management Manual, 2017
31
• Increasing goods movement
• Reflecting provincial / municipal planning & policy priorities
• Supporting transit use
The Ministry evaluates and ranks expansion corridors and projects on an annual basis through an expansion prioritization framework,
which includes the criteria listed here, as well as:5
• Supporting economic development
• Providing connectivity between travel modes for moving goods
• Availability of alternate routes
MTO also works with the Federal Government to deliver infrastructure projects. Typically Transport Canada and Infrastructure
Canada are the lead federal ministries. Most Federal initiatives are managed through Infrastructure Canada; other examples
include:6
• Canada Strategic Infrastructure Fund
• Gateways and Border Crossing Fund
• Public-Private Partnerships Fund
• Provincial/Territorial Infrastructure Base Funding
• Canada’s Economic Action Plan
The Ministry of Transportation Ontario Parametric Estimating Guide (PEG) Highway Construction Costs 2016 is intended as a
reference for costing Ministry projects during conceptual planning and preliminary design phases, and may also be used as an
indicator for future trend analysis. 7
Parametric estimating typically relies on historical bid data price from which determinations are made based on bid data analysis,
knowledge of specific parameters, and identifying correlations between costs and key factors. Current PEG values were determined
based on analysis of average three low bid prices, for major capital design-bid-build contracts, tendered through provincial office from
2010 through 2016.
5 MTO Capital Processes, September 2018 6 MTO Capital Processes, September 2018 7 Ministry of Transportation Ontario – Parametric Estimating Guide – Highway Construction Costs 2016
32
The Ministry of Transportation Ontario Parametric Estimating Guide (PEG) Highway Construction Costs 2016 is intended as a
reference for costing Ministry projects during conceptual planning and preliminary design phases, and may also be used as an
indicator for future trend analysis. 8
Major widening is the addition of lanes to an existing facility.
• Cost of expansion projects are calculated by Centre Line kilometre.
o Centre Line kilometre is the linear length of construction, measured along the main highway alignment, including the
entire right of way. Driving lanes, side roads, interchanges, and entrances are not measured independently as they
are included in the Centre Line km unit. For example, in considering 10 kilometres of 4-lane new construction with
three (3) interchanges and side road improvements, this project includes 10.0 Centre Line kilometres.
• These costs include grading, drainage, paving, granular material, pavement markings, landscaping, traffic control and
roadside safety improvements.
• These costs do not include electrical work, structural work, ATMS, loop detectors or traffic counting stations.
o Structural work includes bridges and structural culverts, either new or rehabilitated.
• Cost Range: indicative of inclusion tall wall barrier (urban only), noise barrier, number of intersections (at ramps and service
roads), interchanges, ramp modifications, extent of service road reconstruction, commuter parking lots, muskeg and rock
work.
Table 1 – Average cost per centre line kilometre
Lanes Added Average Cost per Centre Line Kilometre Typical Cost Range
2 Lane Rural $5,254,250 $3,155,000 – $7,355,000
2 Lane Urban $6,086,333 $3,650,000 – $8,520,000
For the widening of Highway 7 to proceed and where federal funding is available and secured, the leadership of moving this initiative
from concept to execution must come from the Province of Ontario. Having said this, there needs to be a willingness by the Province
to engage and involve the Federal Government to ensure that commitment and support is provided from the federal level.
8 Ministry of Transportation Ontario – Parametric Estimating Guide – Highway Construction Costs 2016
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5.4 Highway 407 ETR
In consultation with the MTO regarding Highway 407 East forecasted traffic data to evaluate the anticipated influence it could have
on Highway 7, their team required until January 2019 to complete the traffic forecasting model for the travel years 2021 through to
2031. The results of which are presented in Table 20.
In the interim, the following information has been made available to assist in this study project from their Draft 407 East
Environmental Assessment: Transportation Assessment and Problem and Opportunities, Definition Report (Transportation
Planning/Need Report):9
• There is a significant volume of goods movement between the GTA, the City of Kawartha Lakes and the County of
Peterborough and points to the east along Highway 7 that encounters out-of-way travel and delay as a result of having to use
Highway 401. Reducing travel times, out of the way travel and improving travel time reliability would lead to lower
transportation costs and benefits the local, provincial and national economy, as a whole.
• Prevailing and future anticipated congestion levels within the 407 East Analysis Area [401 in Durham Region], along with the
lack of an integrated freeway network providing route alternatives for shippers and manufacturers, severely affects
accessibility for existing and future industry. Growing congestion is eroding freight productivity, which in turn erodes economic
competitiveness of industry. Warehousing related transportation that handles service-oriented goods and materials is
extremely sensitive to congestion. These issues may have a negative influence on new businesses looking to locate or
expand in the Highway 407/401 Analysis area.
• MTO’s recent Goods Movement in Central Ontario Study recognized that proximity to the major goods movement network is
an important factor in a firm’s choice of location. This refers not only to the physical distance from the network, but overall
accessibility factors including levels of congestion on roadways leading to and from the industry/business.
• "Just-in-time delivery" (JIT), critical to the 407 East Analysis Area manufacturing sector, is impacted by traffic congestion.
Travel reliability for commercial vehicles is a concern given the existing levels of congestion, which worsens when
construction, maintenance or collisions occur. The growth of “e-Business” will increase the volume of commercial vehicle
traffic, as suppliers to manufactures will focus on outsourced production processes including, JIT. The growth of “e-Tailing”
(buying on-line) suggests that companies will need to deliver direct to end customers using smaller and more frequent truck
trips.
9 407 East Environmental Assessment: Transportation Assessment and Problem and Opportunities, Definition Report (Transportation Planning/Need Report) DRAFT, June 2006
34
• Uncontrolled urban sprawl consumes land resources and promotes an unsustainable future with respect to environmental
conditions. Increased auto dependency creates a growing demand for additional roadway capacity, which if not properly
planned in concert with the appropriate land use controls, can lead to even more urban sprawl.
• Increased levels of congestion in the Analysis Area will result in travel behaviour detrimental to the social environment. i.e.
traffic infiltration. Congestion often forces traffic to travel through residential areas resulting in safety issues and creating
unnecessary “barriers” within communities. Although no data is available specifically for Eastern Ontario, roads are the
backbone of Ontario's multimodal transportation system – they account for 77% of the total tonnage of goods/freight moved in
the province – and trucking is the most nimble of the four (4) modes of transportation (i.e. road, rail, marine and air).10
• The provision of alternative, parallel freeway capacity to Highway 401 to better serve inter-regional, inter-provincial and
international trips, provides an opportunity to transfer/divert longer distance commercial vehicle and auto trips from Highway
401 to a freeway network during periods when the primary corridor is congested due to excessive volume, weather, collisions
or construction. This may reduce the cost of moving goods through the 407 East Analysis Area.
• A transportation corridor through the Region of Durham would act as a key economic link within the Greater Golden
Horseshoe. The extension of Highway 407 to Highway 35/115 would complete a missing link in Central Ontario’s highway
road and transit network addressing out-of-way travel for some commercial vehicle movements originating in or destined for
eastern Ontario and Québec. However, trucking volumes on Highway 7 are projected to continue to rise dramatically through
to 2041 (as shown in
•
• Chart 11). In addition, Highway 7 is the preferred route selected by the MACAVO for the future use related to autonomous
and connected car vehicles. 11
• An efficient transportation system that provides for adequate freeway/transitway capacity supports the tourism and recreation
industries. The transfer of these longer distance trips from the arterial road system to a freeway network is consistent with the
role and function of the road hierarchy. There is an opportunity with the expansion of the arterial and freeway road network to
facilitate growth of the tourist and recreational economic sector within the province.
10 Eastern Ontario Transportation Needs Analysis (EOTNA), Kawartha Lakes CFDC (KLCFDC), March 2014. 11 Municipal Alliance for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles in Ontario (MACAVO) presentation at Ontario Good Roads, February 2019.
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6. Benchmarking
6.1 Purpose of the Benchmarking
As part of the preparation and foundation for this study, a benchmarking exercise was undertaken that was intended to offer insights
into understanding the economic impact of highway twinning (four-laning) to support the evaluation of twinning Highway 7 between
Brock Township and Carlton Place in Eastern Ontario.
In total, three (3) similar projects were considered in this benchmarking exercise. The included highways reflecting a sufficient mix of:
• Similar stretches of highway;
• Similar number of villages, towns, townships and municipalities that were affected;
• Existing or planned future link for increased freight and logistics; and
• Twinning projects completed for at least five (5) years.
The purpose of this study is to demonstrate how the twinning of a significant stretch of highway has impacted the communities along
its path in terms of economic development activities, housing, commercial and industrial development.
6.2 Methodology
The benchmarking was conducted through a series of web research initially looking for data, past studies and information pertaining
to the impacts of highway twinning on the communities along the expanded highways. Once this first round was completed, we
pursued the benchmarking by conducting interviews and meetings with MTO, NYDOT and WiDOT officials looking for similar
information and data, feedback and a reality check.
A third series of activities was conducted, this time with an outreach and interviews with lower tier municipal economic development
leaders, Town/County planners and local DOT officials. Once all the information was gathered and managed, subsequent rounds of
calls and research were done to validate, challenge and better assess the data and corresponding impacts.
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6.3 Benchmarked Highways
6.3.1 ON Highway 11
In its totality, ON Highway 11 in Ontario has become a major arterial backbone line
that connects Southern Ontario with Northern Ontario at 1,785 kilometres in length.
It is the second longest highway in the province, following Highway 17.
ON Highway 11 begins at Highway 400 in Barrie and arches through Northern
Ontario to the Ontario–Minnesota border at Rainy River via Thunder Bay12.
For this exercise, we evaluated a 249-kilometre stretch of ON Highway 11
stretching from Barrie (at the highway 400 interchange) northward to North Bay
(at the highway 17 interchange).
The counties that fall within this identified stretch of highway include Simcoe,
Muskoka, Parry Sound and Nipissing. At the municipal level, the towns that run
adjacent to the highway include Barrie, Orillia, Gravenhurst, Bracebridge, Huntsville,
Burk's Falls, Sundridge, South River, Powassan, Callander and North Bay.
The speed limit along ON Highway 11 is 90 km/h, unless posted otherwise. The
Orillia Bypass, and all portions of ON Highway 11 from Gravenhurst to Emsdale
and from South River to North Bay, are posted at 100 km/h. Road-side services
along ON Highway 11 are quite plentiful between Barrie and Gravenhurst. From
Gravenhurst to North Bay, road-side services are more limited, but are still
available regularly at highway exits.
12 Wikipedia, 01/16/2018, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_Highway_11
Figure 1 – Map of Highway 11 four-laned
corridor
37
6.3.2 US Highway 29, WI (USA)
State Trunk US Highway 29 is a state highway running east–west across central Wisconsin, USA. It is a major east–west corridor
beginning as a four-lane highway at I-94 (west of Eau Claire) and runs 293 kilometres east until it reaches I-41 in Green Bay13. The
cities, villages, and towns along this highway represent rapidly growing regional trade centres as well as smaller, rural, and
agriculturally dependent communities14.
Wisconsin State US Highway 29, a once hilly and curvy two-lane highway, is now a major east-west route. Historically, US Highway
29 served as an important transportation link for many of the manufacturers, food processors, and transportation service providers in
communities along the corridor. The highway connects over 20 Wisconsin communities of varying sizes, including Green Bay,
Wausau, Chippewa Falls, and Eau Claire to other domestic markets. Additionally, US Highway 29 serves as a major connector to
many of the state's tourism attractions and recreational centres.
Over the years, as the economy of both the state and the communities along the corridor grew and diversified, the highway became more
dangerous and as traffic, perceived as heavy, flowed through smaller communities at all hours of the day. These safety hazards were not
only claiming lives, but also hindering the ability of communities on the corridor to achieve their full economic and growth potential.15
13 Wikipedia, 01/16/2018, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin_Highway_29 14 U.S. Department of Transportation, “Economic and Land Use Impacts Study of State Trunk Highway 29: Phase I Chippewa Falls to Abbotsford, Wisconsin”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/wisconsin_29/wis29_01.cfm 15 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Transportation, “Economic and Land Use Impacts Study of State Trunk Highway 29: Phase I Chippewa Falls to Abbotsford, Wisconsin”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/wisconsin_29/wis29_02.cfm
38
Figure 2 – Map of Highway 29 four-laned corridor
6.3.3 US I-86, NY (USA)
The south-western corner of New York State, bordered by Pennsylvania on the west and south, has long suffered from high
unemployment and low-income levels compared to most of the states. The region was also perceived as lacking good regional
highway access, an issue that was recognized in 1962 when the New York State Legislature (under Highway Law 340-C) authorized
the route of the Southern Tier Expressway as an improved four-lane highway following the east-west path of the old NY-17 through
New York's southern tier16.
In 1976, a final Environmental Impact Study (EIS) was completed for upgrading the western part of the route to a four-lane freeway.
This portion of NY-17 traversed Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, Allegany and Steuben Counties in New York, with a further link in Erie
County, Pennsylvania to connect to I-9017.
16 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Transportation, “Economic Impact Study of the I-86 Corridor”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/new_york_86/i86ny01.cfm 17 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Transportation, “Economic Impact Study of the I-86 Corridor”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/new_york_86/i86ny01.cfm
39
The portion of the road east of Olean (mainly in Steuben and Allegany counties) was first widened from two (2) to four (4) lanes. In
the 1980s, the portion from Olean to Jamestown (mostly Cattaraugus County) was widened to four (4) lanes. At the end of that
decade, the portion from Jamestown to Chautauqua Lake was widened. However, it was not until the mid-1990s (circa 1997) that the
portion of highway west of Chautauqua Lake to I-90 was completed as a four-lane highway. (This includes parts of Chautauqua
County in New York State and Erie County in Pennsylvania). It was not until 1999 that the bridge across Chautauqua Lake (saving
significant time and distance for travellers) was completed to replace the cross-lake ferry service and the roundabout two-lane route
around the lake. At that time, work was also completed on upgrading shoulders and interchanges along the full length of the highway
route to interstate highway standards18.
When the 297-kilometre route was
completed in 1999, it finally
provided the region with a high-
speed, limited-access freeway
connection to the major cross-
country route I-90. On
December 3, 1999, it was formally
designated as Interstate 86 (US I-
86). Future plans call for the
extension of US I-86 by an
additional 328 kilometres along
the NY-17 alignment to connect to
I-87 (the New York Thruway), thus
providing a further connection to
the New York City region19.
18 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic Impact Study of the I-86 Corridor”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/new_york_86/i86ny01.cfm 19 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Transportation, “Economic Impact Study of the I-86 Corridor”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/new_york_86/i86ny01.cfm
Figure 3 – Map of US I-86 four-laned corridor
40
6.4 Research Findings and Observations
6.4.1 Construction Timelines
Table 2 summarizes the distance of the four-laned corridors, the start and end locations and the duration needed to complete the
four-laning of each in their entirety. Irrespective of provincial or federal political party in power, state of economy, etc., it is interesting
to note that the Ontario-based project, which happens to be the shortest of the three (3) benchmarked locations took more than
double the time needed to complete US I-86 in New York State and nearly six (6) times as long as US Highway 29 in Wisconsin to
complete. The Highway 7 project under consideration in Eastern Ontario is the same reported length as the US Highway 29 project in
Wisconsin, which was completed in eight (8) years.
Table 2 – Highway construction timelines
Highway Distance
(km) Start Date End Date
Project
Duration
(Years)
Start City End City
ON Highway 11 249 1960s 2012 47 Barrie North Bay
US Highway 29 293 1992 2000 8 Elk Mound Green Bay
US Highway 86 297 1970s 1999 22 Findley Lake Corning
41
6.4.2 Traffic Volumes
Two (2) study periods were considered in evaluating changes in traffic patterns along ON Highway 11: the five (5) years (2008-
2012) leading up to and the five (5) years (2012-2016) following the completion of the fully expanded highway in 2012. A sampling
of traffic data was taken from seven (7) data collection sites along ON Highway 11 during these periods.
Figure 4 – ON Highway 11 traffic capture points (map)
Table 3 – ON Highway 11 traffic capture point
(legend)
# Highway Traffic Data Collection Site
1 Highway 11 @ 11 Line South
(Oro-Medente)
2 Highway 11 @ Sundial Drive
(North of Orillia)
3 Highway 11 @ Muskoka Rd 118
(North of Gravenhurst)
4 Highway 11 @ Muskoka Rd 117
(North of Bracebridge)
5 Highway 11 @ Highway 60
(North of Huntsville)
6 Highway 11 @ Goreville Rd
(North of South River)
7
Highway 11 @ Seymour St
(North of 11/17 Interchange – South of
North Bay)
42
In evaluating the Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) figures along ON Highway 11, between 2008 and 2012, there was an increase in
AADT between Oro-Medente and Gravenhurst and then a decline in AADT counts the further travelled to North Bay. Following the
completion of the highway widening, there was a steady increase in the number of traffic counts between Oro-Medente and South River. It
is possible to suggest that the trailing effects of the 2008 recession and the fact that people were taking alternate routes to avoid the
segments of ON Highway 11 that were under construction were factors for the decreased traffic activity between 2008 and 2012.
Chart 1 – ON Highway 11, 5-year percent change in AADT before/after highway widening between Oro-Medente and North Bay
43
Presented in Table 4, US Highway 29 experienced a 56% increase in traffic volume on a per mile basis between 1991 and 2000.
Table 4 – Average annual daily traffic per mile along US Highway 29
Highway 11 AADT/Mile % Growth over 10-Year Period
1991 569
2000 889 56%
As a result of the widening along US Highway 29, commuters experienced faster travel times, better access to the expressway, and
improved safety and driving conditions for both truckers and private vehicle drivers. Communities accelerated their planning efforts
for commercial and industrial development, particularly near new interchanges. The additional lanes, interchanges, and bypasses
facilitated the shift of local shoppers from the smaller local communities to the larger urban centres. Wage earners were likely to
purchase products and services at these larger urban centres rather than locally in the smaller communities20.
Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) counts along the Southern Tier Expressway of US I-86 revealed a moderate spike in traffic
following the completion of the highway widening in all but one highway data collection site at the cross section of Highway 16 in
Olean where the community had been experiencing a gradual decline in traffic counts since 199521.
20 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic and Land Use Impacts Study of State Trunk Highway 29: Phase I Chippewa Falls to Abbotsford, Wisconsin”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/wisconsin_29/wis29_02.cfm 21 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic Impact Study of the I-86 Corridor”, 06/28/17, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/new_york_86/i86ny03.cfm#ny31
44
Figure 5 – US I-86 Highway data collection sites
Table 5 – US I-86 AADT traffic counts during 1995, 1998 and 2001
Station Location 1995 1998 2001 1995-2001 Change 1995-2001
% Change
1 NY 430/Bemus Pt 8,543 11,823 * 13,941 5,398 63.20%
2 NY 394/Steamburg *8,200 *8,188 8,906 706 8.60%
3 NY 16/Olean 10,413 8,488 7,292 -3,121 -30.00%
4 NY 275/Friendship 6,506 6,450 6,975 469 7.20%
5 Allegany County East 5,848 6,550 6,837 989 16.90%
* Indicates estimates.
45
Chart 2 – Comparison of average annual daily traffic (AADT) counts along the southern tier Expressway of I-86, before/during/following
highway widening Ccompletion in 1999
Completion of the US Highway 86 allowed for higher speeds, facilitated passing and eliminated delays associated with slow-moving
vehicles. It also cut travel distances by directly crossing Chautauqua Lake instead of going around it. Staff of Southern Tier West
estimated that total travel time for the 193-kilometre trip across the study area was reduced by an average of 20-30 minutes
(depending on the time and season)22.
22 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic Impact Study of the I-86 Corridor”, 06/258/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/new_york_86/i86ny03.cfm
46
There was also a reported increase in the number of vehicles using US Highway 29. However, the expanded highway also made it
more convenient for residents to travel to other destinations for shopping. Many retail business owners saw the positive impacts of
higher traffic levels, but also recognized the challenge of attracting customers to shop at their stores rather than in the larger
communities such as Chippewa Falls and Eau Claire.
Retail establishments in downtown Chippewa Falls took a proactive planning approach to the Chippewa Falls bypass. The downtown
launched a marketing campaign called "Destination Chippewa Falls". Part of this marketing campaign included a downtown mural
that created an image of the city. This image was used in television campaigns and on citywide welcome signs to attract travellers
from the highway to the downtown area. The overall reduction of truck traffic in the downtown area was expected to have a positive
impact on local businesses23. Additionally, in Abbotsford, the bypass reduced truck traffic enabling more people with better access to
downtown businesses24.
6.4.3 Primary Changes in the Community
6.4.3.1 Business Growth
Completion of the Highway 11 widening brought isolated communities closer and improved the transportation of valuable natural
resources such as timber, metals and minerals.
Along US Highway 29, manufacturers, food processors, and transportation service providers noted improvements in travel times and
increased reliability of product delivery. Improvements in the safety of the new four-lane highway were the most frequently mentioned
economic benefits by interviewed businesses. Highway-oriented businesses such as gas stations, motels, restaurants, and
convenience stores were the first wave of development for many of the communities along the improved four-lane highway. The
highway expansion also caused shifts in traffic patterns, affecting downtown businesses. A reduction of trucks in the downtown area
led to an increase in the visibility and accessibility of businesses along Main Streets.
23 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic and Land Use Impacts Study of State Trunk Highway 29: Phase I Chippewa Falls to Abbotsford, Wisconsin”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/wisconsin_29/wis29_13.cfm 24 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic and Land Use Impacts Study of State Trunk Highway 29: Phase I Chippewa Falls to Abbotsford, Wisconsin”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/wisconsin_29/wis29_13.cfm
47
During 1995-2002, the number of new businesses grew substantially in communities along both highway corridors. During this
8-year period, the number of businesses along US Highway 29 increased from 1,452 to 2,524, or by 74%.25
Table 6 provides a breakdown of the impacts associated with manufacturing, food processing, service and retail industries26.
Table 6 – Summary of interview findings regarding trucking impacts, commuting patterns, and other impacts of the US Highway 29
expansion
Industry Manufacturing Food Processing Service Industry Retail
Industry
Trucking Impacts
• Improved safety
• Convenient
• Less stress on drivers
• Faster travel time
• Tight turning radius at
some interchanges difficult
for truckers
• Less stress on drivers
• Improved safety
• Same radius of
distribution but faster
travel times
• Better commute times
for regional deliveries
• Reduced delivery and
service time
• Problem with tight
turning radius at some
interchanges
• Convenience of
delivery to retail stores
• Less truck traffic in
downtown areas
Impact on Employee
Commuting Patterns
• Improved safety
• Reduction in time needed
to get to work
• Easier access for longer
trips, for short commutes,
drivers often use more
direct routes on local roads
• Improved safety
• Increased speed
• Employees are willing
to travel greater
distances to work
• Easier drive
• Improved safety
• Increased speed
• Easier in driving
experience
• Improved safety
• Willingness to travel
greater distances for
work and shopping
25 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic and Land Use Impacts Study of State Trunk Highway 29: Phase I Chippewa Falls to Abbotsford, Wisconsin”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/wisconsin_29/wis29_14.cfm 26 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic and Land Use Impacts Study of State Trunk Highway 29: Phase I Chippewa Falls to Abbotsford, Wisconsin”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/wisconsin_29/wis29_13.cfm
48
Industry Manufacturing Food Processing Service Industry Retail
Industry
Other Impacts
• Positive overall impact
• Improved Traffic Circulation
• Much safer for all drivers
• Less congestion as a result
of the construction of the
bypass
• For sales, cut an hour
off car travel time
across the state.
• Drivers began using
four-lane Highway 11
instead of County
Road X for safety
reasons
• Better visibility in
downtown areas
• Better access to Main
Street businesses
(Abbotsford)
• Less traffic downtown
due to bypass
• More competition
from other larger
communities for
customers
49
Figure 6 provides a visual of the communities along US Highway 86 that provided positive, negative and unchanged feedback as a
result of having completed the highway widening.
Figure 6 – Communities that reported positive impacts and/or business growth along US Highway 86 (Map)
Table 7 – Communities that reported positive impacts and/or business growth along US Highway 86 (legend)
Number I-86 Community Number I-86 Community
1 Mina / Findley Lake 7 Salamanca
2 Ellery / Bemus Point 8 Allegany
3 Jamestown 9 Olean
4 Falconer 10 Cuba
5 Poland 11 Friendship
6 Randolph 12 Angelica
13 Alfred
50
Table 8 – Description of business impacts along US Highway 86
I-86 Community New Business
Investment
Local Business
Expansion Value of Expansion
# of New Jobs
Created
# of Jobs
Retained
Allegany
(Population 8,230) 2 1 100 86
Cuba
(Population 3,392) 2
Falconer
(Population 2,540) 3 1 100 350
Friendship
(Population 1,927) 1 $20M 200
Mina / Findley Lake
(Population 1,176) 1
Olean
(Population 15,347) 1
Table 9 – Description of other business impacts along US Highway 86
I-86 Community Housing Starts Tourism Change Development Interest Property Value
Change
Allegany (Population 8,230)
Cuba (Population 3,392) 2 1 15%
Falconer (Population 2,540) 3
Mina / Findley Lake (Population 1,176) Noted increase Noted increase 10%
Olean (Population 15,347) Noted increase Noted increase 5%
Salamanca (Population 6,097) Noted increase Noted increase Noted increase
51
Table 10 – Description of other outcomes or new/expanded companies along US Highway 86
I-86 Community Other Outcomes Company Names Landed or
Expanded
Allegany
(Population 8,230)
• Frito Lay Distribution Centre
• Home Depot
• Advanced Monolithic Ceramics
Falconer
(Population 2,540)
• Rail Freight Service Reinstated
• Developers expressed interest in several parcels in Falconer
after US Highway 86 was completed, including a
representative of a national hotel chain
• Sealy Mattress Factory
• CVS Drug Store
• Truck-Lite Company, Inc., a division of
Penske Transportation Components
Friendship
(Population 1,927)
• Planning for a business incubator and technical assistance
centre.
• 500 acres of land has been reserved for economic development.
• Dresser-Rand
Jamestown
(Population 31,730)
• Two (2) additional hotels have been proposed near the Lucille
Ball Museum complex
• Rite Aid Drug Store
• Tim Hortons
• Holiday Inn Express
Mina / Findley Lake
(Population 1,176) • Harley Davidson
Olean (Population
15,347)
• Truck body manufacturer
• Concrete mixer manufacturer
• Several distribution centres
• Dresser-Rand
• Home Depot
• Two (2) national chain restaurants
Salamanca
(Population 6,097)
• Small manufacturers
• "Center for Regional Excellence" (business incubator)
• Several other retail and service-based stores opened
• Gator Grip Manufacturing
• Rite-Aid Drug Store
• Seneca Nation Gaming and
Entertainment Centre
• Holiday Inn Express
Other Community
Results
• Truck stops in Seneca Junction and Steamburg
• Proposed factory outlet mall in Steamburg
• Proposed factory outlet mall in Lakewood
• A large NASCAR track was built along I-86 just a couple of
miles across the state line in Pennsylvania
• Home Depot
52
Table 11 – Description of unchanged or loss of business activity along US Highway 86
I-86 Community New Business
Investment Tourism Change
Development Interest
Property Value Change
Out of Business / Left Town
Other Outcomes
Alfred (Population 5,140)
Unchanged
Angelica (Population 1,411)
• No new development
• No developers expressed interest
Unchanged
• No reported increase in traffic and spending related to tourism
Ellery / Bemus Point (Population 4,579)
• Little development occurred
Unchanged
• Several cellular phone towers that were constructed • No community planning took place after 1999 • Tourism spending remained unchanged
Poland (Population 2,467)
• No significant development
Unchanged • No growth in tourism traffic
Randolph (Population 2,681)
12
• No documented increase in visitor activity in the area
5-10% 6
• Development prospect of a senior housing project • Visitor information kiosk was also opened
53
Other examples of anecdotal business growth along US Highway 86 include27:
• Increase in local community pride via the beautification of the area. This was a step in establishing what the Southern Tier
West sees as a corridor "brand" that was used in future efforts to market the corridor to employers.
• Tourism was on the rise with a number of tourism groups visiting the complex of the Lucille Ball Museum, theatre and gift
shop. New motels were being developed nearby to accommodate the increased visitation. This in turn was expected to
increase business in restaurants, antique shops and similar activities in the Jamestown area.
• Other tourism assets exist including a casino owned by the Seneca Indian Nation in Salamanca (an architectural
masterpiece), the Block Barn in Cuba, and a system of bicycle/skateboard/jogging lanes in the area situated near Olean.
• Several regional destinations including the University complex in Alfred, new distribution centre in Olean and a medical
centre, which has recently expanded. Not only were the customers and employees of these facilities better served because of
I-86 improvements, but also operations of the facilities are easier. For example, the medical centre required nearly continuous
service by suppliers of equipment, medical supplies, etc.
• Substantial development of a more traditional type was occurring in the corridor. For example, an insurance office opened
near Cuba, a storage facility in Olean, construction-related businesses in Olean, new businesses expanding the business
district of Olean, and construction of a major new business complex in Olean was underway in August 2003. It is possible that
the designation of US Highway 86 made this latter development possible; however, it is also possible that the development
would have occurred anyway. In either case, the access provided by US Highway 86 will be important if this development is
successful. In this regard, Allegany County is establishing an office, convenient to US Highway 86, to promote development.
An example of a business success that is probably not connected to US Highway 86 is Advanced Monolithic Ceramics,
formerly a tenant in a business incubator facility in Olean and now owner of the building.
• A number of developments were clearly related to transportation in the corridor. These included a newly planned truck stop
and a new motel near Jamestown, a new motel near Cuba and some travel-related businesses in Allegany.
27 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “New York I-86 Statement by Martin Weiss”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/ny86.cfm
54
6.4.4 Population Growth
Table 12 – 10-year change in population growth along ON Highway 11 (1981-1991)
In Table 12, you can see that Barrie experienced significant growth between
1981 and 1991, but it could be largely attributed to the existing four-lane
highway 400 that runs north-south between Barrie and Toronto. Bracebridge
and Huntsville also experienced significant growth rates of 36% and 31%
respectively in the years leading up to and following completion of the
highway widening. Gravenhurst shared the same growth rate as the Province
of Ontario at 17%, and both Orillia and North Bay shared the lowest growth
rate at 8%.
Table 13 – 10-year change in population growth along ON Highway 11 (2006-2016)
In the remaining six (6) years leading up to the completion of the ON
Highway 11 widening and the immediate four (4) years following its
completion, the Province of Ontario experienced an overall growth rate of
15%, Barrie and Gravenhurst saw the next highest percent change increases
of 13% and 11% respectively, followed by Huntsville with 8%. Orillia and
Bracebridge saw nominal increases at 3% and 2% respectively and North
Bay’s population retracted by 4%.
Chart 3 illustrates the changes in reported populations at various points between 1961 and 2016. The red arrow indicates the year of
completion that the highway was twinned through their respective communities to make measuring the population growth effect
easier to see.
City 1981 1991 % Change
Barrie 38,423 62,728 63%
Orillia 23,995 25,925 8%
Gravenhurst 8,532 9,988 17%
Bracebridge 9,063 12,308 36%
Huntsville 11,467 14,997 31%
North Bay 51,268 55,405 8%
Ontario 8,625,000 10,085,000 17%
City 2006 2016 % Change
Barrie 128,430 145,614 13%
Orillia 30,259 31,128 3%
Gravenhurst 11,045 12,311 11%
Bracebridge 15,652 16,010 2%
Huntsville 18,280 19,816 8%
North Bay 53,966 51,553 -4%
Ontario 12,160,000 13,976,300 15%
55
Chart 3 – Population change along ON Highway 11 (1961-2016) relative to completion of localized widening28
28 http://www.thekingshighway.ca/Highway11.htm
56
Chart 4 shows the percentage increase/decrease in population following the highway widening. All communities show strong growth
and of particular note, Gravenhurst shows significant growth of 132% however North Bay shows a population decline of 3%.
Chart 4 – Percent change in population of Subsequent Census Population Figure following completion of local ON Highway 11
widening
57
NameType Population
(1990)
Population
(2000)
Absolute
Change
%
Change
Population
(2010)
Absolute
Change
%
Change
State of Wisconsin S 4,905,000 5,374,000 469,000 10% 5,691,000 317,000 5.90%
Stanley C 2,011 1,898 -113 -6% 3,613 1,715 90.36%
Hoard T 805 594 -211 -26% 841 247 41.58%
Sigel T 736 825 89 12% 1,044 219 26.55%
Tilden T 1,079 1,185 106 10% 1,489 304 25.65%
Longwood T 661 698 37 6% 861 163 23.35%
Howard T 625 648 23 4% 798 150 23.15%
Abbotsford C 1,916 1,956 40 2% 2,309 353 18.05%
Seymour T 2,757 2,978 221 8% 3,451 473 15.88%
Wheaton T 2,279 2,366 87 4% 2,718 352 14.88%
Colby C 1,532 1,616 84 5% 1,852 236 14.60%
Edson T 913 966 53 6% 1,093 127 13.15%
Lafayette T 4,448 5,199 751 17% 5,765 566 10.89%
Anson T 1,634 1,881 247 15% 2,082 201 10.69%
Thorp T 710 730 20 3% 808 78 10.68%
Goetz T 640 695 55 9% 763 68 9.78%
Hixon T 673 740 67 10% 808 68 9.19%
Withee T 767 885 118 15% 966 81 9.15%
Curtiss V 173 198 25 14% 216 18 9.09%
Eau Claire C 56,856 61,704 4,848 9% 66,291 4,587 7.43%
Arthur T 756 710 -46 -6% 760 50 7.04%
Cadott V 1,328 1,345 17 1% 1,437 92 6.84%
Ludington T 906 998 92 10% 1,066 68 6.81%
Dorchester V 697 823 126 18% 876 53 6.44%
Chippewa Falls C 12,727 12,925 198 2% 13,748 823 6.37%
Thorp C 1,657 1,536 -121 -7% 1,621 85 5.53%
Reseburg T 687 740 53 8% 776 36 4.86%
Mayville T 932 919 -13 -1% 961 42 4.57%
Worden T 575 657 82 14% 666 9 1.37%
Eagle Point T 2,542 3,049 507 20% 3,054 5 0.16%
Delmar T 994 941 -53 -5% 938 -3 -0.32%
Hull T 836 773 -63 -8% 750 -23 -2.98%
Holton T 971 907 -64 -7% 872 -35 -3.86%
Colby T 846 908 62 7% 872 -36 -3.96%
Withee V 503 508 5 1% 487 -21 -4.13%
Owen C 895 936 41 5% 852 -84 -8.97%
Green Grove T 628 902 274 44% 756 -146 -16.19%
Boyd V 683 680 -3 0% 552 -128 -18.82%
Hallie T 4,531 4,703 172 4% 161 -4,542 -96.58%
Totals (not including state figures) 114,909 122,722 7,813 7% 128,973 6,251 5.09%
Along US Highway 29 (WI), as shown in
Table 14, the overall population
increased by 7% (on average) along the
four-lane highway corridor between 1990
and 200029 compared to the State of
Wisconsin with a 10% increase. In
evaluating the population changes
following another 10-year period, those
same communities experienced a
slightly lower combined additional
increase of 5.09% when compared to the
State of Wisconsin with a 5.9% increase
over the same time period. The
communities that experienced a positive
increase in population between 2000
and 2010 are highlighted in green
whereas those communities that
experienced a reduction in population
are shown in red.
29 World Population Review, http://worldpopulationreview.com/states/wisconsin-population/
Table 14 – 20-year population changes in communities within 5 miles of US Highway 29 (1990 and 2000)
58
Table 15 breaks down the population change by county and isolate the population change for study area communities located along
the US Highway 86 corridor between 1990 and 2000. The result is that all the counties experienced a decline in population, however,
the State of New York experienced an increase of 5.5% in its population during the same period.
Table 15 – Population changes from 1990-2000 along US Highway 86 corridor.
County Population
(1990)
Population
(2000)
Absolute
Change % Change
Population
(2010)
Absolute
Change % Change
I-86 Highway Study Corridor
Allegany 50,470 49,927 -543 -1.10% 48,946 -981 -1.96%
Cattaraugus 84,234 83,955 -279 -0.30% 80,260 -3,695 -4.40%
Chautauqua 141,895 139,750 -2,145 -1.50% 134,750 -5,000 -3.58%
Total Southern Tier
West Counties 276,599 273,632 -2,967 -1.10% 263,956 -9,676 -3.54%
Remaining
I-86 Corridor
Communities
133,373 127,455 -5,918 -4.40% N/A N/A N/A
New York State 17,990,455 18,976,457 986,002 5.50% 19,378,102 401,645 2.12%
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6.4.5 Industrial Development
The Wisconsin Department of Commerce identified 43 new and expanded manufacturing plants located along the study area portion
of US Highway 29 between 1990 and 2001. The new jobs associated with these plants were twice that found along a nearby parallel
two-lane highway over the same period.
According to WisDOT data, during 1990-2001, approximately 72,000 jobs were created from over 2,400 manufacturing plants that
either located or expanded in the State of Wisconsin. The vast majority or 88% of these plants were located within five (5) miles of
the state's backbone highway system (which includes US Highway 29).
Along US Highway 29, the number of manufacturing plants and jobs created was approximately double to that reported along its nearby
parallel two-lane highway. This difference is significant because manufacturing wages and benefits were (on average) higher than those of
other industry sectors. The manufacturing sector also drove other business sectors where its benefits cascaded throughout the local
economy. As a result, growth in manufacturing led (in this case) to a larger multiplier effect on total employment growth30.
It was noted that along US Highway 86, much of the initial success in attracting new manufacturing activity occurred in small to
medium-size communities31.
6.4.6 Service Sector Impacts
Along US Highway 29, customers relied on fast and dependable service from businesses in the service sector. When immediate
services were required, travel times saved by repair companies made a significant difference in providing high-quality customer
service. The repair shops and agricultural service sector interviewed, indicated that the new four-lane highway had been
advantageous to their business as a result of ease of access and faster travel times, which allowed service representatives to reach
customers sooner. A major banking firm reported that the new highway improvements provided easier access for their customers.
The bank had since opened new branch locations in several communities along the four-lane highway32.
30 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic Impact Study of the I-86 Corridor”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/new_york_86/i86ny03.cfm 31 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic Impact Study of the I-86 Corridor”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/new_york_86/i86ny03.cfm 32 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic and Land Use Impacts Study of State Trunk Highway 29: Phase I Chippewa Falls to Abbotsford, Wisconsin”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/wisconsin_29/wis29_13.cfm
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6.4.7 Workforce Impacts
Data from the Wisconsin Department of Workforce showed that new and expanding manufacturers in counties along the US Highway
29 corridor created 4,871 jobs, more than twice the number of jobs created in the previous six (6) years. Reduced travel times and
improved employment prospects for many job seekers residing in the communities along the expanded highway. Many of the
workers commute long distances to larger urban centres for the higher paying jobs and benefits. With the four-lane highway
completed, commuters reported shorter driving times to their places of employment. In addition, passing lanes on the highway
enabled them to drive at their own pace and still get to their jobs on time. Overall, the cities and villages along the four-lane highway
considered it a positive impact for commuters. Most workers commuting over greater distances tend to use the four-lane highway
because it provides faster travel times and better safety conditions. In some instances, workers were even willing to commute a
greater distance to go to work33.
Additionally, from 1996 through to 2001, total employment along the entire US Highway 29 corridor increased by 11.3% exceeding
the state-wide employment growth of 8.7% during the same period34.
Table 16 shows the change in number of business establishments and employment in the study area along US Highway 86 between
1995 and 2000. This range spanned the period immediately before and after completion of the four-lane widening.
Overall, the study area experienced an increase of 2.0% in the number of business establishments and a 1.3% increase in
employment over this period. However, the data broken down by county revealed that the employment growth was concentrated at
the western part of the study area (Chautauqua County), which is the area closest to the connection with the major cross-country
route I-90. The other two (2) counties also experienced increases in the number of business establishments, but sustained losses in
total employment. This may be indicative that new businesses had moved in, but not yet grown enough to offset the losses of plant
closings during the same period to absorb those layoffs.
33 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic and Land Use Impacts Study of State Trunk Highway 29: Phase I Chippewa Falls to Abbotsford, Wisconsin”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/wisconsin_29/wis29_13.cfm 34 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic and Land Use Impacts Study of State Trunk Highway 29: Phase I Chippewa Falls to Abbotsford, Wisconsin”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/wisconsin_29/wis29_02.cfm
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The table below further shows a breakdown of the changes in individual communities located directly along US Highway 86. It shows
that the largest employment gains occurred in Jamestown, the area's most populous community, although there were also major
gains in jobs in communities located off the highway.
Table 16 – Changes in business establishments and employment by county and for communities along US Highway 86 (1995-2002)
Place and Zip Code Business Establishments Employment
1995 2000 Change 1995 2000 Change Percent
Chautauqua County
Sherman-14781 35 39 4 195 192 -3 -2%
Bemus Point-14712 59 63 4 329 378 49 15%
Greenhurst-14742 5 2 -3 37 - -37 -100%
Celoron-14720 17 20 3 99 98 -1 -1%
Jamestown-14701 1,082 1,035 -47 17,796 19,168 1,372 8%
Falconer-14733 123 136 13 3,472 3,318 -154 -4%
Rest of County 1,794 1,828 34 23,269 24,197 928 4%
County Total 3,115 3,123 8 45,197 47,351 2,154 5%
Cattaraugus County
Randolph-14772 56 55 -1 621 738 117 19%
Steamburg-14783 7 5 -2 24 18 -6 -25%
Salamanca-14779 137 144 7 1,661 1,761 100 6%
Kill Buck-14748 10 12 2 35 91 56 160%
Limestone-14753 11 10 -1 49 45 -4 -8%
Allegany-14706 116 116 0 693 628 -65 -9%
Olean-14760 735 789 54 12,153 11,840 -313 -3%
Hinsdale-14743 20 16 -4 84 99 15 18%
Rest of County 718 713 -5 9,517 9,197 -320 -3%
County Total 1,810 1,860 50 24,837 24,417 -420 -2%
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Place and Zip Code Business Establishments Employment
1995 2000 Change 1995 2000 Change Percent
Allegany County
Cuba-14727 95 115 20 1,388 1,226 -162 -12%
Friendship-14739 24 30 6 282 362 80 28%
Angelica-14709 23 29 6 121 120 -1 -1%
Almond-14804 15 19 4 74 83 9 12%
Rest of County 641 660 19 10,463 9,898 -595 -6%
County Total 798 853 55 12,328 11,689 -639 -5%
Southern Tier West Total
5,723 5,836 113 82,362 83,457 1,095 1.33%
Table 17 illustrates the 1995-1997-2000 changes in total employment along the study area in comparison to the remainder of New York
State (excluding New York City region). In both instances, State-wide increases remained the same over the study period, yet the
stretch along US Highway 86 experienced 2.00% and 1.30% respectively in total employment between 1995-1997 and 1997-2000.
Table 17 – Percent change in total employment between study areas compared to New York State
Total Employment 1995 1997 2000
US Highway 86 Corridor - 2.00% 1.30%
New York State - 0.20% 0.20%
Table 18 reveals that the study area along US Highway 86 experienced increases in manufacturing employment between 1995 and
1997 and then again between 1997 and 2000 when compared to remainder of New York State (excluding New York City region).
Table 18 – Change in manufacturing employment between study area and New York State
Manufacturing 1995 1997 2000
US Highway 86 Corridor - -0.30% 1.60%
NY State Total - -6.20% -14.00%
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6.4.8 Tourism Expenditures
While data associated with visitor spending was not formally tracked along ON Highway 11 prior to 2012, one can see two (2) years
of levelled-off activity following the completion of the ON Highway 11 widening between Barrie and North Bay. This is followed by one
(1) year of declined activity and then a positive year-over-year increase in visitor spending between 2014 and 2016. It is important to
note that while these figures represent the entirety of the Muskoka District Municipality, since ON Highway 11 represents the primary
arterial highways running (north-south) through the centre of the region, it is fair to assume that visitor spending along this corridor
would follow a similar pattern.
Between 1990-2000, tourism expenditures for counties along
the entire length (Phase I and II) of US Highway 29 increased
by 115%. This is in comparison to an increase of 108% along
a nearby parallel highway.
The tourism expenditure gap between these two (2) highway
corridors may be attributed to the increasing number of
highway-oriented businesses built along the four-laned
highway. Results from community interviews revealed that
often the first wave of development was in the form of gas
stations, convenience stores, restaurants, motels, and truck
stops. To the travelling public, the four-lane highway also
served as a gateway to tourism destinations in northern
Wisconsin.
Chart 5 – Total visitor spending within the Muskoka District
Municipality (2012-2016)
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One of the common themes of tourism indicators in Door County was the anticipation of receiving more visitors from the Twin Cities
in Minnesota. The rise of tourism expenditures along US Highway 29 may also be attributed to the increasing number of vehicles
travelling along US Highway 29 as a result of easier, more efficient access to Door County35.
Chart 6 – Traveler expenditures along Highway 29 (1992-2001)
35 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic and Land Use Impacts Study of State Trunk Highway 29: Phase I Chippewa Falls to Abbotsford, Wisconsin”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/wisconsin_29/wis29_13.cfm
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6.4.9 Investment Attraction
The area along US Highway 29 might become more attractive to new businesses because of the geographic positioning of the
highway relative to locations of particular population centres, suppliers or buyers (both in-state and out-of-state). Additionally,
providing special opportunities for particular combinations of industries to better support each other and take advantage of emerging
technologies or localized impacts through improving the perceived quality of life of the region served, may assist in strengthening
investment attraction into the area36. Many of the communities have or were in the process of upgrading their utilities (sewer and
water systems) in anticipation of attracting development to the region.
6.4.10 Land/Property Values
Based on the surveys of county and local officials in the Southern Tier West region along US Highway 86, there appeared to be
evidence of additional land use planning, increased property values and additional business investment occurring in some of the
communities along the corridor. Many, but not all of these changes, are locally perceived as a result of the completion and
designation of US Highway 8637. It is important to note that the increased interest in land development had spurred five (5) separate
communities to pursue new land use plans or controls38.
Residential property values were also a reflection of population and economic growth. Table 19 below shows how median sale prices
changed over time in each of the counties in the study area. Unfortunately, the series are available only for the period of 1999-2000-
2001, so it only reflects change over an interval of two (2) years. It is important to note that these trends reflect countywide averages
and do not provide any insight into localized impacts on property values in the vicinity of highway interchanges. Impacts that are
highly localized are likely to be lost in countywide averages39.
36 Glen E. Weisbrod and James Beckwith, "Measuring Economic Development Benefits for Highway Decision-making: The Wisconsin Case", January 1992, http://zyzx.haust.edu.cn/moocresource/data/20091115/U/MIT20091115086/OcwWeb/Urban-Studies-and-Planning/11-482JFall-2007/Readings/wisconsin-hwy-tq.pdf 37 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic Impact Study of the I-86 Corridor”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/new_york_86/i86ny03.cfm#ny32 38 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic Impact Study of the I-86 Corridor”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/new_york_86/i86ny03.cfm 39 U.S. Department of Transportation Federal Highway Administration, “Economic Impact Study of the I-86 Corridor”, 06/28/2017, https://www.fhwa.dot.gov/planning/economic_development/studies/new_york_86/i86ny04.cfm
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Table 19 – Residential sales and median sale prices by County (1999-2001)
County
1999 2000 2001
Sales Median Price Sales Median Price Sales Median Price
Southern Tier (US Highway 86)
Chautauqua 1,636 $54,000 1,604 $56,500 1,432 $57,700
Cattaraugus 795 $53,900 817 $53,000 816 $55,000
Allegany 495 $38,000 474 $40,500 486 $45,000
6.5 Conclusion
The ease of travel to and through communities situated along twinned highways can prompt residents to pursue higher paying
employment opportunities at a further distance from home as a result of a more efficient, safer and faster road transportation
network. In fact, in some cases the ease of travel can allow households with multiple income earners to work in different urban
centres and reside in smaller communities along the corridor at a more centralized location between the urban centres.
Several analysts of urban-rural relationships, including Michael Porter of Harvard University, have suggested that rural areas located
next to urban areas tend to see rising incomes as higher wages from the urban areas drive wages up and draw commuters from the
rural to the urban areas for those higher wages. Often, the “rule of thumb” for the distance over which this effect takes place is 60-90
minutes travelling time. If this phenomenon is in effect in Eastern Ontario, higher wages should be visible in the rural areas which are in
closer proximity to urban centres.
Property that becomes more accessible because of the widening project may increase in desirability and value. Whether the net
effect is positive or not depends on the type of land use (commercial, industrial, residential, recreational) as well as on the relative
changes in accessibility, noise, and air quality. New businesses or residential development may be attracted to the more accessible
land, or existing land uses may grow in intensity or extent.
Some smaller communities in close proximity to a nearby metropolitan centre can benefit, as a result of increasing urban
land/housing values and limited real estate options, which push developers further outside these urban boundaries, to seek new
investment and development opportunities.
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The impacts of highway widening on business can be substantial. They can result in significant increases in business volume or conversely,
decreases so severe that they cause firms to fail. Many new highway-oriented businesses locate near interchanges of improved four-lane
highway corridors. Firms that depend on passing traffic for their business are particularly susceptible, such as service stations, fast-food
outlets, and convenience stores. Communities that have developable land to market (as noted in this benchmarking study), often began to
see these types of initial developments that also include fuel stations, coffee shops, fast food outlets and motels/hotels. Traditionally, more
significant investment will often follow with residential development leading, followed by commerce and industry.
Much of that impact may however depend on the success of local marketing efforts. In this study for example, a US Highway 86 visitor travel
guide was distributed by the New York State Department of Transportation at its highway rest areas and by regional tourism bureaus and
chambers of commerce. In Wisconsin, a "US Highway 29 Partnership" was established by five (5) smaller communities with a goal of working
together on common economic development initiatives. In Ontario, several local stakeholders and business leaders came together to devise a
plan to bring economic prosperity back into Bracebridge after the city was slated to be bypassed in the widening of ON Highway 11.
Bypassed communities or communities in which the highway does not travel through their downtown core should consider attractive
and informative directional signs to encourage travellers to venture off the highway to experience the retail, recreational, historic, and
cultural delights of the area. A further downtown benefit is in the reduction of tractor trailers and large trucks, which often lead to
traffic congestion. Redirection of these vehicles creates a more pedestrian-friendly environment where tourism attractions, service
providers and retail businesses can thrive.
Highway improvements typically lead to reduced travel times and improved reliability of product delivery for manufacturers, food
processors and transportation service providers. Improved road and highway safety, reductions in congestion, and lower freight
charges for deliveries are often cited as frequently mentioned benefits.
The key highlights of this benchmarking exercise show that:
• Housing development is the first generator of future economic growth as industry and commerce/retail will foster on population.
• Highway widening often serves two (2) main purposes: a) Make a region more accessible (for all types of activities) and/or b)
Support growth already happening in an economic corridor and make it a safer destination.
• Communities must not rely solely on the widening to hope for growth – a structured plan and approach is required to leverage
the benefits of the Highway.
• Urban centres seem to collect a good portion of the growth tied to their services and population base.
• The urban centres’ growth has rippling effect on nearby smaller communities which prompts them to growth faster.
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7. Data Analysis
The data analysis aims to investigate a variety of different data sets as a way of identifying trends that could provide answers and/or
insights to support a business case for widening Highway 7 to four (4) lanes. In doing so, data was collected from the Ministry of
Tourism, Culture and Sport, the Ministry of Transportation Ontario, the Ministry of Finance and the Ontario Provincial Police.
7.1 Traffic Patterns
A total of 34 data collection sites along the Highway 7 catchment area were used to understand past (1998), current (2016) and
forecasted (2041) truck and car traffic patterns. The forecasted traffic figures can be found in section 7.2.
Both Chart 7 and Chart 8 are presented in a left to right (west to east) manner which illustrate natural increases in traffic activity from
1998 to 2016 and Chart 7 illustrates that traffic count increase occurs closer to the larger towns and cities. Traffic from Lindsay to
Otonabee-South Monaghan represents the largest concentration of traffic activity along the catchment area. The average of the
AADT from the six (6) data collection sites throughout Kawartha Lakes is 6,408 (1998) compared to 11,025 (2016), which represents
an approximate increase in traffic volume by 72% as shown in Chart 8. Throughout the eight (8) data collection sites beginning in
Peterborough until Otonabee-South Monaghan, the average percentage of the AADT increased by 106% from 9,831 to 20,300
between 1998 and 2016. In the far easterly stretch of the study area, particularly between Perth to Carleton Place, the average of the
AADT increased from 7,350 to 11,580 representing an increase of 58%.
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Chart 7 – 1998 and 2016 AADT truck + car volumes along Highway 7 catchment area
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Chart 8 – Percent increase in traffic between 1998 and 2016 along Highway 7 catchment area
71
In better understanding current traffic
patterns and trends, Figure 7
illustrates the concentration of
commuters who travel more than 30
minutes to their place of work. Along
Highway 7, there is a higher density of
residents within Kawartha Lakes,
Peterborough County and Hastings
County (representing the west side of
the catchment area) in addition to
Lanark County (on the east side of the
catchment area) who are showing
more than 30-minute daily commute
times. In assessing Lennox and
Addington County and Frontenac
County, both of which are situated in
the centre of the study area, they are
showing significantly fewer people
(particularly those areas situated
around or north of Highway 7) who
travel more than 30 minutes to their
place of work.
Source: Pivotal Momentum
Figure 7 – Daily commuter traffic patterns
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7.2 Forecasted Traffic Patterns
7.2.1 MTO Data Set #1: Historical, Present and Future (car and truck) AADT
Chart 7 from the previous section above illustrates what the 1998 and 2016 recorded AADT combined commercial truck and
passenger vehicle volumes were at 34 data collection sites throughout the Highway 7 corridor albeit beginning in Oakwood, some 16
kilometres east of the intersection of Highways 7 and 12, the origin of our study area. Unfortunately, data collection sites west to the
Highway 7 and 12 interchange are not available. Overlaid on
Chart 9 below is the same table with the forecasted 2041 combined truck and car volumes for comparison. The chart illustrates that
overall traffic activity continues to spike within the areas of Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough, Perth and Carleton Place.
Some of the factors possible for influencing the increase in traffic mobility along the study area could be attributed to the findings
derived from the forecasted population growth patterns and planned housing starts. Information obtained during the research and
consultations indicated an increase in economic activity stemming from the GTA into parts of Eastern Ontario that include Brock
Township, Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough as a result of available lands for residential, commercial and industrial development
opportunities. The same can be said emerging from the Ottawa region and travelling westerly through to Lanark County. It was also
revealed in the benchmarking exercise that people may choose to live further away from metropolitan centres and commute into the
office due to improvements in transportation.
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Chart 9 – 1998 and 2016 (actual) vs 2041 (forecasted) AADT combined truck + car volumes
74
Chart 10 splits out the 2041 forecasted AADT commercial truck and passenger vehicle volumes independently while comparing it to
the combined 2016 truck and car AADT actuals. In an effort to calculate the representation of truck versus car traffic, imperial data
obtained from the MTO Data Set #2 and the average representation of car traffic relative to the total truck and car traffic in 2016 was
89% along 51 data collection sites. In calculating the figures for the chart below in
Chart 10, 89% was used (as a baseline) in separating truck and car traffic volumes. It is evident that forecasted passenger vehicle
traffic will continue to be the prevailing mode of transportation travelled along the Highway 7 corridor. Similar to the spikes in
passenger vehicle traffic activity within and around Ottawa and Peterborough, there is a corresponding increase in commercial truck
activity.
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Chart 10 – 2041 (forecasted) truck + car AADT volumes vs 2016 combined truck + car AADT volumes
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7.2.2 MTO Data Set #2: 2041 Forecasted High and Low (truck only) AADT
Utilizing a secondary data set provided by the MTO which isolates truck traffic activity and provides forecasted 2041 high and low
potential truck traffic activity along the Highway 7 study area,
Chart 11 illustrates fairly significant high and low increases in truck traffic activity by 2041. The general patterns of increased activity
are consistent with prevailing truck traffic activity.
For additional context and reference and as noted in the west end of the chart below, we felt it was important to present additional
insights into current and forecasted truck traffic activity along the stretch of Highway 7/12 in the area south of Brock Township known
as Scugog Township. Having identified some of the current and forecasted truck traffic activity along Highway 7/12 leading up to
Highway 7 is important because continued traffic trends coming up from the areas of Scugog and Whitby are predicted to also
experience significant increases in truck traffic activity over the same periods. As a result, this reinforces the need to consider
beginning the four-laning of Highway 7 at the intersection of Highway 7 and Highway 12 in Brock Township.
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Chart 11 – Comparing 2016 and 2041 estimated low & high truck AADT along Highway 7
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7.2.3 MTO Data Set #2: 2041 Forecasted (car and truck) AADT utilizing MTO low forecasted truck figures and represent 25% of total
projected AADT
It is also important to know when reviewing this forecasted model, the percentage of traffic that is expected to be comprised of
passenger vehicles versus commercial trucks. In converting this truck traffic activity which was calculated based on being 11% of total
vehicles in one data set from MTO, even if we increased that amount to 25%, which is a very high figure to use it does provide for more
conservative total vehicle counts. When we then deployed it with the 2041 forecasted low truck activity figures, (both low and high truck
AADT figures were provided) we begin to see the entire corridor from the intersection of Highways 7 and 12 in Brock Township east to
Otonabee-South Monaghan remaining well above the 20,000 AADT threshold with only three checkpoint dipping slightly below.
Furthermore, four (4) areas, using this model are expected to surpass 40,000 AADT and the Highway 7 and Highway 12 intersection
is forecasted to break 60,000 AADT.
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Chart 12 – Forecasted 2041 (car & truck) AADT along Highway 7 based on 25% truck usage against MTO forecasted low 2041 truck
usage
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7.2.4 MTO Data Set #3: 2041 Forecasted (car and truck) AADT along the East stretch of Highway 407
Data was also provided from the MTO to consider and evaluate how future traffic patterns to/from Highway 407 ETR will have an
effect on Highway 7 traffic, once it is successfully connected to Highway 115.
Figure 8 maps out the four (4) planned interchanges along the Eastern stretch of Highway 407 ETR to support the MTO forecasted
modelling of future traffic patterns, once Highway 407 ETR is extended to and is operating from Highway 115.
Figure 8 – Highway 407 Interchanges to support MTO forecasted modelling
Information provided by the Ministry of Transportation Ontario in Table 20 provides insights into the anticipated east-westbound
Highway 407 ETR traffic activity representative of light vehicles (under 5,000 kg) and commercial vehicles (heavy single unit and
multiple unit).
Of particular note from the forecasted modelling below is that higher amounts of traffic are forecasted to derive from the north on all four (4)
noted arterial highways which are expected to contribute to a reasonable amount of westbound traffic on Highway 407 ETR. For reference,
these westerly traffic volumes will be originating from north of the Thickson Road interchange at Highway 12 (which is the start of the
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Highway 7 study area); north of the Simcoe St. interchange is Port Perry; north of the Highway 57 interchange is Lindsay via Highways
57/7A/35; and north of the Highway 115 interchange is Lindsay via Highways 115/35 and Peterborough via Highways 115/7.
When considering eastbound traffic along Highway 407 ETR, the forecasted number of vehicles existing at the four (4) identified
interchanges does not distinguish between traffic that would turn north and head towards Highway 7 versus south turning traffic
headed towards Lake Ontario. This adds a level of uncertainty as to the impact of vehicle traffic along the Highway 7 study area
originating from Highway 407 ETR.
Table 20 – Forecasted On/Off ramp activity to/from Highway 407 ETR once connected to Highway 115
AADT – Average Traffic Volume Weekdays Light and Commercial Vehicles
Thickson Rd. ( Hwy 26)
Simcoe St. (Hwy 2)
Hwy 57 Hwy 115
1a Entry Ramp
Traffic from the South and headed 407 West 3,062 7,238 3,061 375
2b Entry Ramp
Traffic from the South and headed 407 East 62 295 75
3a Entry Ramp
Traffic from the North and headed 407 East 0 0 0
4b Entry Ramp
Traffic from the North and headed 407 West
3,583 1,547 518 1,795
1b Exit
Ramp Traffic from the East and headed North or South
197 505 40
3b Exit
Ramp Traffic from the West and headed North or South
957 1,089 1,358
Exit
Ramp Traffic from the West and headed North 1,000
Exit
Ramp Traffic from the West and headed North or South
104
These forecasted figures were compared against the rationale and other supporting finds noted from within the draft 407 East
Environmental Assessment: Transportation Assessment and Problem and Opportunities, Definition Report (Transportation
Planning/Need Report). With the significant volumes of goods movement between the GTA and the City of Kawartha Lakes, City of
Peterborough and points east along Highway 7 (as stated within the report), the document assumes that Highway 407, as an
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alternative route to Highway 401, will reduce travel times, out of the way travel and improve travel time reliability that would lead to
lower transportation costs. This is a plausible explanation, but forecasted figures (as reported by the Ministry of Transportation of
Ontario and obtained in January 2019) regarding the anticipated use of on and off ramps of the four (4) most easterly interchanges
along Highway 407 may not necessarily be reflective of Highway 407 being an alternative route to Highway 401 for shippers, and
manufacturers, let alone passenger vehicles.
The associated toll costs of utilizing Highway 407 for carriers of commercial goods continues to be factored into the overall cost of
transportation. As evident of the influence that these toll costs have, many companies won’t allow their trucks to take toll roads. An
outcome of this is rarely does one find themselves sharing Highway 407 with commercial carriers. (i.e.: tractor trailers).
7.3 Safety
In evaluating traffic safety trends,
Chart 13 illustrates annual motor vehicle collisions at 35 data collection sites along Highway 7 between Manilla and Carleton Place
over a 22-year period from 1989 to 2010. Between 2012 and 2016, motor vehicle collision data was also obtained, but was
representative of the entire Highway 7 study area. Through the 1989 and 2010 period, the average number of annual motor vehicle
collisions was 394, compared with 576 between 2012 and 2016. This latter represents an approximate 46% increase over the 1989-
2010 trends, but it is important to note there are differences in data collection methods between the two study periods.
In trying to identify a correlation between Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) along Highway 7 and recorded motor vehicle
collisions,
Chart 13 illustrates that while AADT continues to increase over time, motor vehicle collisions are somewhat constant over the same
period.
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Chart 13 – Comparison between reported accidents and the combined AADT average of 35 checkpoints along Highway 7 (1989-2016)
84
Between 2012 and 2016, Chart 14 identifies motor vehicle collisions as either involving property damage, personal injury or where a
fatality was reported. The results revealed combined motor vehicle collisions in the range of 527 to 620 per year over the five (5)
years studied. While the chart is beginning to show signs of a marginal decrease in reported motor vehicle collisions in all three
areas of property damage, personal injury and fatality since 2013, data for the years 2017 and 2018 are not yet published to
understand if this is reflective of a longer-term trend or what other factors may have contributed to this pattern.
Chart 14 – Highway 7 accidents by property damage, injury and fatality (2014-2016)
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7.4 Forecasted Population Growth Patterns
Urban Growth Centres (UGC) are
important areas of intensification that
will form a network of urban centres.
The Cities of Pickering, Oshawa,
Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough
have been identified as UGC’s in the
proposed Provincial Growth Plan. The
Ministry of Finance calculates that the
population of Eastern Ontario is
projected to grow 22.7% over the
projection period of 2017-2041, from
1.85 million to 2.27 million. Ottawa is
projected to grow fastest (34.1%) from
995,000 in 2017 to 1.33 million in
2041. Most other Eastern Ontario
census divisions are also projected to
grow, but below the provincial average
of 30.2%40 which also reflects the
concentration of population centres in
the greater golden horseshoe area.
While Figure 9 illustrates that Hastings County, Lennox and Addington County and Lanark County are expected to experience a
population increase of less than 15%, Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough County and Frontenac County are all expected to realize
population increases of 15% to 30% by 2041. The initiating point of the study is Brock Township which is in Durham Region where
growth is forecasted at over 30%. In total, these various estimated population growth patterns represent an increase of nearly
100,000, bringing the total population up to 600,100 along the study corridor by 2041. This would lead to an approximate increase of
41,447 new homes which is detailed in a later section below.
40 https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/
Figure 9 – Population growth/decline by Census Division over 2017 to 2041
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The proposed Provincial Growth Plan recognizes that it is important to continue to invest in the road and highway system within the
context of a balanced transportation system to better serve the needs of the travelling public.
Area roadways and highways will still be the backbone of the transportation network for goods movement, tourism and the travel
requirements of people living outside the intensification areas.
The proposed Provincial Growth Plan acknowledges that one of the most important elements of the transportation network within the
Greater Golden Horseshoe is connecting the manufacturing sector with the vital markets in the U.S. and other regions of Ontario and
Canada. Building an effective goods movement network requires high levels of regional and local accessibility and strategic
improvement and expansion to the current and future highway network.
7.5 Forecasted Residential Starts
Understanding that local-area home builders associations utilize forecasted population figures to calculate future residential home
builds (as a guideline), Chart 15 illustrates the forecasted increase in populations41 in counties which are intersected by Highway 7. In
calculating the forecasted population increase for Frontenac County, the City of Kingston’s CMA figures were removed.42
Furthermore, data obtained from the Ministry of Finance43 and also from a report on Ontario’s Growth Plan for the Greater Golden
Horseshoe44 provide differing forecasted population figures for Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough County. As such, an average of
the two figures were calculated to support the results depicted in Chart 15 below and in Chart 16 which follows.
41 https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/table4.html 42 https://www.cityofkingston.ca/documents/10180/31619068/Projects_Planning_PopulationHousingEmploymentForecast_Draft+Report_February2019.pdf/f5d09cb6-e371-4740-9515-4f99b78766a6 43 https://www.fin.gov.on.ca/en/economy/demographics/projections/table4.html 44 https://files.ontario.ca/appendix_-_growth_plan_2017_-_oc-10242017.pdf
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Chart 15 – Population projections (2016-2041)
Between 2016 and 2041, there is an anticipated increase in population of approximately 96,786 residents along the Highway 7 study
area which translates to an approximate overall average increase of 19.2%. Using the forecasted population figures from Chart 15
and extracting the average household size from the respective countries from within the study area45, Chart 16 illustrates the
anticipated growth in private dwellings to accommodate that future demand.
45 Average household size data was extracted from Statistics Canada, Census Profile 2016
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Chart 16 – Forecasted number of total private dwellings by County (2016-2041)
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In comparing the percent increase in private dwellings between 2016 and 2041 as detailed in Chart 17, the pattern of activity
somewhat resembles the household/party visits of the same counties as illustrated in Chart 18 of the tourism analysis. In an effort to
bring meaning to the rather large spike in the forecasted increase of private dwellings in Frontenac County relative to the other
comparable jurisdictions and which does not include Kingston in its forecasted figures, it has been suggested that a large number of
the expected 5,559 new housing starts are in fact representative of new suburban developments that will sprout up around Kingston.
Chart 17 – Percent increase in private dwellings from 2016-2041
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7.6 Tourism
Chart 18 – Total household/party visits (2012-2016)
Chart 18 lays out the six-census
divisions in chronological order from
Kawartha Lakes (in the west) to
Lanark County (in the east) to assist in
visualizing tourism/visitor patterns that
travel through each jurisdiction. In
analyzing data from the 2012-2016
“Total Household/Party Visitsˮ, a 4-
year increase of tourists/visitors in the
Kawartha Lakes (+18.4%) and
Peterborough County (+1.3%) areas
are depicted, but as one approaches
the middle stretch of Highway 7, there
is a -7.1% and -30.9% decline in
tourist/visitor traffic in Hastings and
Lennox & Addington Counties
respectively. On the east side of the
study area, Lanark County on the Far
East experienced an -18.2% reduction
in tourist/visitor traffic, but Frontenac County experienced a +17.6% increase during the same period. In consultation with
Frontenac’s office of economic development to understand the spike in tourism activity and the general high levels of
household/party visits, the area is known as Land O'Lakes, which includes more than 5,000 local-area lakes,46 and is home to some
of the world’s best fresh water fishing, boating, camping, cycling and hiking opportunities.47 In addition, in the county’s northwest
quadrant is Bon Echo Provincial Park which is a well-known outdoor, recreation and campground park.
46 https://thegreatwaterway.com/pt-destination/land-olakes/ 47 https://thegreatwaterway.com/pt-destination/land-olakes/
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In analyzing the 2012-2016 “Total Visitor Spending” in Chart 19 on the next page, one can see a 4-year increase of visitor spending
in the Kawartha Lakes (+7.0%) and Peterborough County (+16.7%) areas, but as one approaches the middle stretch of Highway 7,
there is a -5.5% and -28.3% decline in visitor spending in Hastings and Lennox & Addington Counties respectively. On the east side
of the study area, Lanark County on the Far East experienced a -4.0% reduction in visitor spending, but Frontenac County
experienced a +3.7% increase.
Chart 19 – Total annual visitor spending (2012-2016)
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Table 21 below seeks to compare the 4-year change in total household/party visits against the 4-year change in total visitor
spending. Census divisions that experienced a positive increase in household/party visits also reported increased visitor spending.
Areas that suffered a decline in household/party visits also dealt with a reduction in total visitor spending.
In an effort to understand any correlation between the increase or decrease of household/party visits and total visitor spending, there
are no patterns to suggest that for every 1% increase/decrease in household/party visits, that there is a corresponding
increase/decrease in total visitor spending. Even when considering Frontenac County, which experiences a very large increase in the
number of household/party visits, benefits from only moderate increased amounts in visitor spending. In speaking with one of the
more recognized tourism operators along the Highway 7 corridor, it is clear that most would welcome the opportunity of four-laning.
Additional specific research and possibly of review and discussion with Ministry of Tourism should be considered.
Table 21 – Change in total household/party visits relative to total visitor spending
Census Division % Change of Total
Household/Party Visits % Change of Total Visitor Spending
Kawartha Lakes 18.4% 7.0%
Peterborough County 1.3% 16.7%
Hastings County -7.1% -5.5%
Lennox & Addington County -30.9% -28.3%
Frontenac County 17.6% 3.7%
Lanark County -18.2% -4.0%
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7.7 Summary
In order to look into the future, it is important to understand how existing traffic patterns have not only created a baseline for which to
assess future projections, but to measure how those figures have the potential to generate economic impacts and affect communities
that surround the Highway 7 study area. Between 1998 and 2016, the three significant stretches of highway that experienced the
highest increase in traffic activity where Kawartha Lakes (72%), Peterborough to Otonabee-South Monaghan (106%) and the Perth to
Carleton Place stretch, representing a 58% increase in traffic activity. These strong percentage increases are anticipated to continue.
In receiving different sets of data for car and/or truck activity up to 2041, we did see some discrepancies. In an effort to further refine
the forecasted truck and/or truck and car activity by 2041, we welcome the opportunity to sit down and engage in conversation with
the MTO regarding these projections and to come to an agreement on a consistent set of data by which to use as the basis for the
forecast modeling.
Regarding daily commuter traffic patterns, the higher concentrations of commuters who are commuting in excess of 30 minutes on a
daily basis to work happen to be situated 30-45 minutes from the larger urban centres which typically have a larger employer base
from which to choose. As people’s preferences to live further outside these metropolitan areas continues to increase, the majority of
them are left relying on passenger vehicles as the primary mode of transportation to and from their place of work.
As population migration continues to expand beyond urban centres, this represents one of many factors that have the potential to
influence future traffic patterns. As such, the already highly used stretches of Highway 7 along the study corridor (between 1998 and
2016) are projected to experience a further increase in traffic activity through to 2041 ranging from 27% to 57%.
As the construction of Highway 407 continues through to Highway 115, it is difficult to precisely ascertain the influence of traffic that
will be felt on Highway 7 as a result, but there is early indication that moderate levels of traffic will be venturing onto Highway 407
westbound from an origin location to the north, which could include communities along or north of Highway 7.
Safety along Highway 7 remains a priority not only for drivers and passengers, but for governments, agencies and others who play an
important role in the direct or indirect day-to-day operations of the highway. While accidents involving property damage and personal
injury are difficult to avoid altogether, it would be favourable to work towards eliminating accidents involving a fatality. Between 2012
and 2016, 47 such incidents were reported along the Highway 7 catchment area and as population intensification continues across the
province, commuters will continue to share the road with increased volumes of commercial trucks and passenger vehicles.
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As the Province of Ontario continues to refine its Places to Grow48 strategy and designate Urban Growth Centres throughout the
province, the Cities of Pickering, Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough have now been identified with such a status. Kawartha Lakes,
Peterborough County and Frontenac County are all expected to realize their own sizeable population increase ranging from 15% to
30%. Important to note is Durham Region, which is where the study area begins and is forecasted to experience an approximate
increase of population growth of 37% over the same period.
These forecasted population figures are one measurement used in projecting future residential starts. With an average household
size ranging from 2.3 to 2.4 persons among the six (6) counties along the study area, the anticipated increase in total population of
approximately 96,786, adds a further 41,447 housing projects to the area.
Within the tourism industry, much of the areas along and to the north of the Highway 7 corridor are recognized as cottage country by
those who reside in urban centres. As such, Highway 7 realizes an overall population increase of some 30,000 people during the
summer months and especially on Fridays through Sundays. It was found that areas which experienced higher levels of
household/party visits also benefit from positive inflows of visitor spending. The opposite can be said for communities that underwent
a decline in household/party visits. This was more common in jurisdictions that were deemed to be further away from the larger urban
centres. That said, Frontenac County continued to show strong levels of household/party visit and visitor spending, which could be
attributed to high number of lakes, parklands and outdoor leisure and recreational activities.
48 https://www.placestogrow.ca/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=372
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8. Economic Impacts
Statistics Canada Input/Output (I/O) modelling, which is favoured by industry experts for analyzing regional economies, relies on
inter-industry data to determine how effects in one industry will impact other sectors. In addition, the I/O model estimates the share of
each industry's purchases that are supplied by local firms (versus those outside the study area). Based on this data, multipliers are
calculated and used to estimate economic impacts.
Market access impacts occur when the trade area surrounding a project is made significantly larger, creating a more favourable
business environment. For example, if by resolving congestion, the project brings significantly more workers within a 40-minute
commuting radius of a business, then the business is likely to find more productive workers and benefit through a productivity gain. In
a similar way, if significantly more buyers or suppliers are brought within a same-day (3-hour) delivery radius, the business may also
enjoy a more favourable position to procure supplies and sell goods.
This study concentrates on the findings of the project’s impacts on employment, personal income, and business outputs that are
based on the results from a cross-section of businesses situated along the Highway 7 corridor that participated in the industry survey.
They provide statistical data on direct, indirect and induced effects. Direct effects are a result of the money initially spent in the study
region by the businesses and/or organizations being studied, whereas indirect effects are the results of business-to-business
transactions indirectly caused by the direct effects. Businesses initially benefiting from the direct effects will subsequently increase
spending at other local businesses. The indirect effect is a measure of this increase in business-to-business activity. Another type of
effect is induced impacts, which consist of the impact of spending by the people employed in the project. For instance, spending on
local goods and services from the money they earn, thereby providing a boost to the local economy.
While this study seeks to extrapolate and bring meaning to the direct, indirect and induced economic impacts from businesses situated
along the Highway 7 corridor, information extracted from the Priority Infrastructure Projects Identified in the 2012 Phase 1 EOTNA Study
revealed the potential for economic impacts as a result of the highway construction itself. This included the creation of approximately
39,312 in person years of employment, representing a 0.68% boast to employment growth in Ontario and a $5.6 billion (0.90%)
increase to Ontario’s GDP.49
To measure the current and future economic impacts of Highway 7, we surveyed various types of businesses along the corridor,
from manufacturers to retailers to tourism and transportation. From an initial list of 700+ companies, the list was brought back to
49 Eastern Ontario Transportation Needs Analysis (EOTNA) - Phase I Screening of Eastern Ontario Transportation Needs, March 2014
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321 companies comprising of a mix of companies located in most of the Cities and Towns along the approximate 300 -kilometre
stretch of Highway 7 between Sunderland in the west and Carleton Place to the east.
An initial information letter was sent out to all companies requesting their participation in the on-line survey. In the end, 45 companies
representing 14% of the survey sample provided answers. These employers operate in the following field of activity:
Chart 20 – Business sectors of survey respondents
These companies provide direct employment today to 1,660 employees (FTE – full time equivalent) which translate into 1,583
full-time and 144 part-time positions (77 FTE).
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8.1 Economic Impacts from Survey Results
8.1.1 Direct Impacts
Direct employment related to the sampling of companies surveyed along the Highway 7 corridor includes upwards of approximately
1,700 jobs, comprised of 1,583 full-time and 144 part-time positions. The annual direct employment and related income is shown in
the table below. Based on survey information obtained, the average income of the Highway 7 corridor is approximately $30,843
annually, well below the Ontario average of approximately $52,000, and the Eastern Ontario average income of $33,41250. These
jobs generated personal income of approximately $51.2 million plus an additional $145,710 in annual municipal taxes.
The employment, income and taxes for direct, indirect and induced employment are shown in the table below. The total economic
impact for the Highway 7 surveyed companies, GDP is measured using a multiplier analysis.51 Total impacts are approximations.
Table 22 – Annual direct, indirect and induced impacts from surveys
Employment (FTEs) Income (millions)
Investments (millions)
Taxes (property)
GDP (millions)
Direct 1,660 $51.2 $91.6 $145,710 $167.4
Indirect 659 $19.5 N/A $45,024 $76.1
Induced 421 $10.9 N/A $26,490 $57.8
TOTAL 2,740 $81.6 $91.6 $217,224 $301.3
Including indirect and induced impacts of the cross section of companies along the Highway 7 corridor generate up to:
• 2,740 total FTEs in the region; and
• $81.6 million in total income.
• $301.3 million in total GDP
50 Eastern Ontario average income levels were derived from the Statistics Canada 2016 Census and took into consideration Kawartha Lakes, Peterborough County, Hastings County, Lennox & Addington County, Frontenac County and Lanark County. https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/index.cfm?Lang=E&TABID=1 51 For the multiplier analysis the Ontario multipliers of the Statistics-Canada input-output (I-O) model is used. This analysis uses the most detailed level of NAICS codes to provide insight into provincial economic activity.
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8.2 Economic Impacts for the Entire Corridor (from extrapolated results)
Looking at the entire corridor from the base survey group, today’s economic impact of the Highway 7 region is calculated below. The
data shows a vibrant economy driven by its main urban centres but with also a strong tourism component based on three-season
cottage activities and quality of visitor and transient tourist attractions.
Census data shows a total of 24,252 companies located along the Highway 7 corridor region. These companies employ upwards of
183,870 employees, provide $5.47 billion in income, generate $785 million in taxes and contribute $90.2 billion to Ontario’s GDP. In
comparing Chart 21 and Chart 22 against Table 23 of the daily commuter traffic patters, the cluster locations of commuters travelling
more than 30 minutes to and from their place of work provides supporting evidence that many are likely travelling along Highway 7 as
their primary and most direct route. These urban centres, which provide more employment opportunities, are often more attractive
options for those who are living in more rural type communities and towns.
Table 23 – Total Highway 7 Economic Impact
Employment (FTEs) Personal Income Taxes GDP
183,870 $5,475,836,496 $785,279,760 $90,217,440,000
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Chart 21 – 2016 business counts per Township along/adjacent to Highway 7 between Brock Township and Carleton Place
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Chart 22 – 2016 employee counts per Township along/adjacent to Highway 7 between Brock Township and Carleton Place
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8.3 Tourism Impacts
Another strong component of the Highway 7 economic impact relates to Tourism spending and investments. This portion of the
report provides an estimate of the Tourism economic impact that Highway 7 is expected to generate on the region and Ontario’s
economy in terms of Gross Domestic Product, employment and taxes generated.
Table 24 illustrates that the direct, indirect and induced impacts of the tourism industry along Highway 7 are represented by
approximately 6,262 in full-time employees, $248.1 million in income, $104.3 million in taxes generated and contributing $475.4
million to Ontario’s GDP.
Table 24 – Tourism economic impacts along Highway 7 study area (2017)
Employment (FTEs) Income (millions)
Taxes (millions)
GDP (millions)
Direct 5,153 $165.6 $70.0 $342.5
Indirect 544 $35.6 $21.6 $54.6
Induced 565 $46.9 $12.7 $78.2
TOTAL 6,262 $248.1 $104.3 $475.4
8.4 Housing Development Impacts
On a national level and in 2015, the residential construction industry supported over one (1) million jobs in new home construction,
renovation and repair, and continues to be one of the largest employers in Canada. One of every 18 workers in Canada is employed,
directly or indirectly in residential construction. Total wages paid in 2015 were approximately $58.5 billion.
The Ontario Home Builders Association Economic Review Committee reported that in 2015, the impact of 10,000 new housing starts
on the economy generates $3.3 billion in economic production across a broad array of industries including $727 million in
manufacturing and $307 million in the wholesale, retail, transportation and warehousing sectors. 52
52 http://ohba.ca/system/documents/documents/349/original/Housing_Issue-Fall_2015189b.pdf
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Table 25 – Expected new housing starts between 2016 and 2041
Using this calculation to estimate the economic impact that new housing starts will have
throughout the study corridor, the projected 41,447 new housing starts will generate
approximately:
• $13.68 billion in gross domestic product,
• $3.01 billion on the manufacturing sector and
• $1.27 billion on the wholesale, retail, transportation and warehousing sectors as
shown in Table 26.
Table 26 – Calculated economic impact of anticipated housing starts between 2016-2041
Economic Model Actual Economic Model Actual Economic Model Actual
Housing
Starts10,000 41,447 10,000 41,447 10,000 41,447
Value of
Economic
Impact
$3,300,000,000 $13,677,510,000 $727,000,000 $3,013,196,900 $307,000,000 $1,272,422,900
Economic ProductionEconomic Impact on Manufacturing
Sector
Economic Impact on Wholesale, Retail,
Transportation and Warehousing
Sectors
Furthermore, as detailed in Table 27, approximately 79,993 jobs will be created, $5.39 billion in household income will be generated
and $232.1 million in indirect tax revenues will be collected.
53 These projected housing starts were calculated based on the forecasted population growth projections provided by the Ministry of Finance as well as Municipal Affairs and Housing and divided by the average household size, as shown in the respective Statistics Canada Census reports.
County
Expected New Housing Starts
Between 2016-204153
Kawartha Lakes 9,167
Peterborough County
16,087
Hastings County 5,217
Lennox and Addington
2,083
Frontenac County (Minus Kingston)
5,559
Lanark County 3,333
Total 41,447
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Table 27 – Impact on job creation, household income and indirect tax revenues based on anticipated housing starts between 2016-2041
Economic Model Actual Economic Model Actual Economic Model Actual
Housing
Starts10,000 41,447 10,000 41,447 10,000 41,447
Value of
Economic
Impact
19,300 79,993 $1,300,000,000 $5,388,110,000 $56,000,000 $232,103,200
Jobs Created
(Person Years of Employment)Household Income
Indirect Tax Revenues for
Governments
(Likely Much More in Terms of Direct
Tax Revenues)
Kevin Lee, CEO of the Canadian Home Builders' Association (CHBA) noted that, “At a time when many sectors of Canada’s
economy continue to be challenged, it is reassuring to see that residential construction continues to be an important source of jobs,
incomes and economic activity in every community across the country.” 54
Resale housing transactions across Canada generate significant economic activity. The purchase and sale of homes55 generates
fees to professionals such as lawyers, appraisers, real estate agents, surveyors, etc. as well as taxes and fees to government. In
addition, home buyers typically purchase new appliances or furnishings and undertake renovations that tailor the new home to
specific household requirements.
During the period between 2014 and 2016, it is estimated that a total of $61,600 in ancillary spending (i.e., spending by purchaser on
items other than the actual house and land) was generated by the average housing transaction in Canada. This equates to $616
million based on the 10,000 new housing model cited above. Per transaction ancillary spending varies somewhat by region, ranging
from $44,150 in Atlantic Canada to $67,800 in British Columbia.
54 Canadian Home Builders’ Association, http://www.chba.ca/CHBA/News/2015_Economic_Impacts_of_Residential_Construction.aspx 55 Refers to the purchase and sale of homes via Canadian Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) Systems.
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8.5 Qualitative Comments from the Survey
Survey respondents and those consulted during the various stakeholder engagement sessions were also asked a series of
qualitative questions pertaining to the positive and negative aspects of widening Highway 7. The bullets points represent a summary
of the comments received.
Positive Comments:
• Many businesses felt that improved transportation systems give businesses in Eastern Ontario an advantage in today’s market place.
• Many businesses felt that transportation infrastructure is amongst their top three (3) priorities for economic development in
Eastern Ontario.
• The widening of Highway 7 should/would:
o Enhance tourism and traffic to and from Toronto-Ottawa.
o Boost land holdings and real estate development plans and bring further economic activity.
o Increase highway safety and reduce travel times.
o Expand employee talent pools for recruitment purposes.
o Lead to more families locating in our area, therefore more need for child care, youth sports, family supports and other
programs we can offer.
o Make travel to Ottawa much easier and faster.
o Significantly improve the travel experience and make travel more likely of visitors coming from either the Toronto or Ottawa area.
o Speed up delivery times from some suppliers currently used.
o Make it easier, faster and therefore less expensive to receive fuel deliveries from the Ottawa area.
o Improve overall logistics and distribution and speed up delivery time.
o Logistically, more trucks would be able to distribute our items – this would be better for sales.
o Help the local market and builders as well as cottage country businesses (tourism).
o Help in attracting new business and servicing our current customers.
o Assist in easing the flow of traffic as our community suffers from the traffic congestion that happens during summer
months and especially on the weekends. Increased motor vehicle accidents, long wait times at traffic lights and inability to
pull out on to the highway from businesses along Highway 7 are all problems the community is facing. As the Highway
407 completion date looms, the number of vehicles passing through the community will likely only increase.
o Improve flow and safety in winter as well given more space for snow clearing, maintenance, etc.
o While possibly leading to the creation of short-term business losses as construction may likely impede traffic flow,
however as evident with the last project (adding passing lanes) we did see a long-term increase in our business due to
increased traffic flow and as a result, we support widening Highway 7 as it is greatly needed.
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o Expanding the highway would be a positive as we believe there would be more jobs created leading to more access and
exploitation of the highway.
o Lead to increased traffic efficiencies and overall safety.
o Become a more effective and faster option for our employees to commute to work.
o Incentivise people to move to our community and intern increase our labour pool with increased access to our town.
o Increase traffic through a part of Ontario that could use the economic stimulus and hopefully decrease some of the traffic
on Highway 401 and make it a little safer.
Negative Comments:
• A number of business respondents felts that current transportation systems put businesses in Eastern Ontario at a disadvantage
in today’s market place.
• The widening of Highway 7 may lead to:
o Increased traffic through our community.
o An increase in our taxes paid to government.
o A loss of business activity and disrupt the tourism industry during construction.
o Relocation off Highway 7 as a result of the widening.
o An increase in the number of tractor trailers coming through our community.
o An increase in speed that passenger and commercial vehicles travel through our community.
o Increased urban sprawl into our town as a result of easier access to the urban centres which will put more stress on
our existing infrastructure and services in our town.
Neutral Effects
A number of businesses situated both along and off Highway 7 indicated that the proposed widening project would:
• Open up Highway 7 as an alternate route for people to access their location as opposed to Highway 401.
• Likely not affect jobs/sales/investment very much.
• Have limited impact to local businesses.
• The community of Marmora has Highway 7 travelling directly through its urban core. While we recognize the expansion is
needed to combat the congestion of traffic, this will pose some challenges in our community. We have a few businesses and
historic buildings (i.e. our library) that are only a sidewalk width from the highway. So this is likely going to mean these buildings
will have to be removed in order for the expansion to take place. This may be something we need to start thinking about now as
far as solutions go. Alternatively, another option could be bypassing the town to avoid this level of disruption in our core areas.
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8.6 Highway Construction Investment
As noted from the summary of consultations with the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, from a Parametric Estimating Guide
(PEG), is utilized as a reference for costing Ministry projects during conceptual planning and preliminary design phases.
Table 28 seeks to understand the cost of four (4) potential high priority areas throughout the catchment area. The first three
proposed segments (a, b and c) are represented on the far most westerly side of Highway 7 and the proposed fourth segment (d) is
situated in the furthest east stretch of the study area. In calculating the average cost per centre line kilometre, it can be anticipated
that a budget of approximately $365.2 million is required to twin the priority segment in the west that represents Phase I. Following
the completion of Phase I, consideration should be given to twinning the remaining 17.9-km stretch in the west and the 33.1-km
stretch in the far east for a combined investment of approximately $268 million. Together, these two proposed phases bring the total
investment to approximately $633.1 million. This is compared to four-laning the entire stretch of Highway 7 at cost of in excess of
$1.5 billion without structural work which includes bridges and structural culverts, either new or rehabilitated.
It is important to note that the 4.6-km stretch of North Monaghan Parkway/Sir Sandford Fleming Drive is being recommended as a
priority area for consideration knowing full well that it deviates from the actual Highway 7. From a commuter efficiency perspective,
the distance travelling south along Highway 7 (from Fowlers Corners and past the intersection of North Monaghan Parkway) to the
Highway 7 and Highway 115 interchange and then northeast along Highway 7 to the Sir Sanford Fleming Interchange is 10.2 km.
This is in comparison to the most direct route between these two points which is 4.6 km along North Monaghan Parkway/Sir
Sandford Fleming Drive.
If the decision was made to not proceed with twinning the 4.6-km stretch of North Monaghan Parkway/Sir Sandford Fleming Drive,
approximately 3.8 km of Highway 7 between North Monaghan Parkway and the Highway 7 and Highway 115 interchange would have
to be four-laned. This would lead to a project savings of approximately $4.2 million. If this was the case, the challenge would then
become making it less attractive for commuters to take the shortest route possible to avoid having to drive the extra 5.6 km via the
Highway 7 and Highway 115 interchange.
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Table 28 – Anticipated construction cost using MTO Parametric Estimating Guide
Stretch of Highway 7 Distance
(km)
Average Cost Per
Centre Line Km56
Anticipated Cost
Proposed Phase I
a) Between Highway 12 in Brock Township and North Monaghan Parkway 64.9
$5,254,250
$341,000,825
b) North Monaghan Parkway/Sir Sandford Fleming Drive Between Highway 7 and Highway 115
4.6 $24,169,550
Sub-Total: 69.5 $365,170,375
Proposed Phase II
c) Between Highway 34 in Otonabee-South Monaghan to Asphodel 8th Line in Norwood 17.9 $5,254,250
$94,051,075
d) Between Drummond Street West in Perth and Franktown Road in Carleton Place 33.1 $173,915,675
Sub-Total: 51 $267,966,750
Total: 120.5 $633,137,125
In ascertaining the economic impact this investment would have on employment, for every $1 billion invested in transportation
infrastructure, approximately 13,829 direct and indirect plus an additional 5,101 induced jobs are created57. In calculating the impact the
proposed investment would have in the identified segments from Table 28 above, an infrastructure investment of approximately $633.1
million would lead to the creation of 11,985 direct, indirect and induced jobs. Please note that centre line calculations do not include
structural work which includes bridges and structural culverts, either new or rehabilitated.
56 The average cost per centre line kilometre does not include structural work includes bridges and structural culverts, either new or rehabilitated. 57 Heintz, James; Robert Pollin and Heidi Garrett-Peltier (2009). How Infrastructure Investments Support the U.S. Economy: Employment, Productivity and Growth. University of Massachusetts - Amherst Political Economy Research Institute and Alliance for American Manufacturing
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Table 29 – Anticipated job creation from transportation infrastructure investment along the proposed priority segments of Highway 7
Transportation Infrastructure Investment
Anticipated job creation from transportation infrastructure investment along the proposed priority segments of Highway 7
Economic Model Proposed Phase I Proposed Phase II Summary of Both Proposed
Projects
$1,000,000,000 $365,170,375 $267,966,750 $633,137,125
No. of direct/indirect jobs created
13,829 5,050 3,706 8,756
No. of induced jobs created
5,101 1,863 1,367 3,230
Total job creation 18,930 6,913 5,073 11,985
8.7 Summary
An investment of this magnitude would bring as much relief as it would controversy. Through a variety of strategies to obtain both
quantitative and qualitative information in response to the proposed initiative, we found that such a project would have the potential to:
• Enhance tourism;
• Bolster development and economic activity;
• Expand talent pools for recruitment purposes;
• Increase residential development and attraction;
• Reduce time while increasing savings tied to transportation and logistics;
• Help attract new businesses to the area; and
• Reduce congestion and increase safety.
On the flip side, the widening of Highway 7 to four (4) lanes could create challenges primarily during the various construction phases
and that could affect:
• Tourism;
• Commute times to/from work;
• Customer retention;
• Potential to bring more heavy traffic in communities that rely on tourism;
• Increase project costs possibly associated with relocating companies whose lands were slated for expropriation;
• Environmental factors;
• Overall project costs. Allocation of funds to support other priorities within each individual township or community.
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9. Recommendations and Conclusion
9.1 Recommendations
This report recommends that as a Phase I approach, priority attention and consideration should be given to four-laning the 64.9 km
stretch of Highway 7 between Highway 12 in Brock Township and North Monaghan Parkway in Peterborough plus conversion to four
lanes of this 4.6-km stretch of North Monaghan Parkway/Sir Sandford Fleming Drive to the interchange at Highway 7 and Highway
115 for a total twinning of 69.5 km. By adding the existing 13.7 km stretch of existing four-laned highway between the Highway 7 and
Highway 115 interchange easterly to Highway 34 in Otonabee-South Monaghan, this would create an 83.2-km continuous stretch of
a four-laned highway, the estimated centre lane cost for this would be $365.2 million
As a proposed Phase II approach, further consideration should also be made for four-laning the 17.9-km stretch of Highway 7 from
Highway 34 in Otonabee-South Monaghan to Asphodel 8th Line in Norwood, and the 33.1-km stretch along Highway 7 between
Drummond Street West in Perth and Franktown Road in Carleton Place. The estimated centre lane cost for this would be $268
million.
When considering this phased-in approach to addressing Eastern Ontario’s growing transportation needs over the next two decades,
the anticipated cost of $633.1 million for both Phase I and II not only addresses the immediate priorities, but represents a significant
cost savings when compared to four-laning the entire Highway 7 catchment area which was presented with an updated budget of
approximately $2 billion including structural work; (initially established in 2013). 58
Again, these priority areas are supported by the increasing volume of both truck and passenger vehicle traffic that have been
recorded and tracked between 1998 and 2016 and which is expected to continue rising through to 2041. As urban sprawl advances
towards the outer limits of metropolitan areas and into more rural locations, automobiles continue to be the dominant mode of
transportation for commuters to/from their place of work. In addition, people are becoming more focused on the financial values that
come with affordable housing and the overall cost of living, work/life balance and the proximity and ease of access to
leisure/recreation activities, all more accessible in rural communities. As a result, daily commuters are becoming increasingly reliant
on vehicle transportation with a reliable road transportation network.
This notion of urban sprawl is supported by the forecasted population growth patterns as projected by the Ontario Ministry of Finance
which also forms the basis for the anticipated housing developments over the same period.
58 Eastern Ontario Transportation Needs Analysis (EOTNA) - Phase I Eastern Ontario Transportation Needs Analysis, March 2014
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With the projected growth in population of the six counties (less Kingston) expected to rise from 503,314 in 2016 to 600,100 in 2041
and an increase in private dwellings from 215,390 to 256,837 over the same period, the economic impact is significant and will play a
key role in influencing future job creation, household income, discretionary spending, tax revenue generation and Ontario’s overall
GDP. The cycle of economic activity and supporting supply chain activity (which will be a spin-off on one-hand and be required on
the other-hand to support this growth) will lead to increased demand and use of the Highway 7 corridor resulting in an increasing
need for the four-laning in priority areas.
Beyond the scope of this study and for future consideration, a further recommendation is being made to better understand the
potential benefits of extending Highway 7 in Brock Township westerly to connect with Highway 404 in East Gwillimbury and possibly
even Highway 400 in Bradford, West Gwillimbury. This recommendation is based on feedback from the stakeholder consultation
process which indicated that some degree of commuters, tourists and commercial vehicle drivers are looking for cost-saving
alternatives to the fee-for-use Highway 407, while also trying to avoid the typical daily levels of congestion that are experienced with
many parts of Highway 401 through the Greater Toronto Area.
9.2 In Conclusion
Following the completion of an extensive consultation process, benchmarking exercise, data analysis and identification and
calculation of economic impacts, we believe that there is one (1) portion of the roadway that can be identified as ready for
consideration to twin today. Then there are two (2) additional segments of Highway 7 that could also be given further attention as
having been identified as key development areas. Our findings and opinions are based on a series of projections through to 2041,
stakeholder consultations, and established modelling deployed for aspects of this analysis.
The first segment of the proposed highway twining would be approximately 70 kilometres which entails the portion of Highway 7
between Highway 12 in Brock Township through to and including the North Monaghan Parkway/Sir Sandford Fleming Drive
interchange at Highways 7 and 115 in the City of Peterborough. Worth noting is that the subsequent section travelling further east to
our recommended conclusion at Highway 34 is already four-laned, bringing the competed length to a total of just over 83 kilometres.
Beyond this, secondary consideration could be given for twinning the remaining stretch of the Highway 7 Highway through to
Norwood, a total of 17.9 kilometres, as well as to the eastern-most section not currently four-laned between Carleton Place and
Perth, measuring 33.1 kilometres.
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In an effort to be transparent in our assessment, we obtained data from the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario, the Ministry of
Municipal Affairs and Housing, and the Ministry of Finance, and discovered that there were inconsistencies in the data that was
provided to us from these sources. In a number of these cases, we balanced the figures by calculating an average between them.
This led to the direction of averaging, which we have taken within this report rather than picking one side/ series of data.
It was also clear throughout the research study that information collected specifically along the Highway 7 corridor indicated that key
segments both historically and within forecasted estimates demonstrate ongoing increases in traffic activity. Between 1998 and 2016,
traffic usage along Highway 7 in Kawartha Lakes saw an average increase of 72%, compared to the Peterborough to Otonabee-
South Monaghan stretch of 106% and the Perth to Carleton Place segment of 58%. These same segments are forecasted to
continue to see further large increases in traffic through to 2041.
While an Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT) volume of 10,000 may be sufficient for a highway four-laning to be considered, insight
from the Ministry of Transportation of Ontario (MTO) suggests that traffic volumes should be more representative of 20,000 and
above prior to being considered for twinning. In reviewing the forecasted data provided by the MTO, there are in fact a number of
data collection sites on Highway 7 that are projecting combined truck and car traffic volumes in excess of 20,000 AADT and in some
cases, traffic volumes are expected to exceed 40,000 AADT. Those areas are identified in the recommendations as priority areas for
a phased-in approach to beginning the four-laning process.
While ongoing efforts continue to increase traffic safety along the Highway 7 study area, only marginal decreases have been
reported in motor vehicle collisions in recent years, but the average number involving property damage, personal injury or a fatality
remains at 57459 per year with an average number involving a fatality at 9.4 per year.
For many individuals and the families affected, there still remains significant room for improvement, especially in anticipation of
further population growth patterns throughout Ontario and along the Highway 7 study area.
Throughout the forecasted period until 2041, the Province of Ontario is anticipating that many areas will experience large increases in
population growth. Kawartha Lakes and Peterborough County are both projecting an increase of 18% and Lanark County has a 12%
increase. This is coupled with the fact that a sizable portion of the population within each of these centres is travelling more than 30
minutes to their place of work, will continue to lead to increased stress along Highway 7.
59 The figure of 574 represents the average number of all motor vehicle collisions per year between the years 2012 and 2016 and is inclusive of the entire stretch of the study area. This number is in comparison to the 394 which was a calculated average amongst 35 specific data collection sites throughout the years 1989 and 2010.
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As these communities along Highway 7 continue to intensify, so too will the number of housing starts. Using the forecasted
population increases to calculate anticipated housing starts, the entire Highway 7 catchment area is projecting 41,447 new housing
starts through to 2041. Approximately half of those projected housing starts will happen within the recommended Phase I twinning of
the highway segment corridor. The corresponding economic impact will have a profound effect on the local economy. Economic
production or GDP will be increased by approximately $13.7 billion, the economic impact will be felt throughout the manufacturing
sector to an estimation of $3.0 billion and $1.3 billion within the wholesale, retail, transportation and warehousing sectors. In addition,
approximately 79,993 jobs will be created, household income of $5.4 billion will be generated and $232.1 million will be collected in
indirect tax revenues for governments. Again, nearly half of these anticipated economic impacts will benefit those priority areas which
are projected to realize those housing developments.
As outdoor recreation, cottaging and other leisure activities continue to define the tourism industry along the Highway 7 catchment
area, household/party visits and visitor spending will continue to increase as an economic driver for those adjacent communities.
As the province continues to evaluate the return on investment with this level of an infrastructure build, the calculated Phase I and II
investment of $633.1 million based on centre line kilometre estimates, would lead to the creation of approximately 11,985 direct,
indirect and induced jobs being established.
Major infrastructure projects across Canada similar to this proposed investment often require alignment with, and the support of an
approval from provincial and federal levels of government. There is a value-add opportunity which extends beyond the immediate areas
adjacent to the proposed Phase I and II locations. At the more local level, the economic benefits and level of highway investments can
and often do spill into jurisdictions different from those in which the infrastructure is primarily located.
In applying what was learned from the benchmarking exercise that included one (1) Ontario and two (2) U.S. corridors of similar length,
housing developments are the first generator of future economic growth and then industry, commerce and retail will follow. Highway
widening often makes a region more accessible (for all types of activities) and supports growth already happening in an economic corridor
while making it a safer destination. That said, communities must not rely solely on a highway widening for the basis of their future growth –
a structured plan and approach is required to leverage all the economic benefits that highway twinning has to offer.
The questions asked by policy makers are often two pronged. Not only do they want to know the effect of transportation on additional
economic development, they also want to know the transportation needs to support future growth.
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This study provides a snapshot of the current and forecasted situation along Highway 7 by creating a baseline by which to further
evaluate the need to four-lane a series of high priority segments compared to potentially the entire Eastern Ontario Highway 7
corridor. The study also provides the basis and reasoning as to why it is felt a more comprehensive and fully established business
case would be best completed by senior levels of government. This next step would be designed to ensure that anticipated growth
and demand match the reality of the activity taking place.