the comerica u.s. economic outlook€¦ · the comerica u.s. economic outlook a taxonomy of...
TRANSCRIPT
-
The Comerica U.S. Economic Outlook
A Taxonomy of Economic Risk Factors for 2017
Robert A. Dye Ph.D. Chief Economist, Comerica Bank
September 2016
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A Taxonomy of Economic Risk Factors
Unknown Knowns
Standard economic metrics that come with significant lags…net migration, population,
county business patterns
Unknown Unknowns
We don’t see it coming
Both immediate risks and long-term trends
Known Knowns
Standard economic metrics like GDP, unemployment rate, inflation rate, housing
starts …etc
Known Unknowns
We know there is an issue but the data is sketchy…financial engineering, student debt, disruptive technology, political risk
-
A Taxonomy of Economic Risk Factors
Unknown Knowns
Standard economic metrics that come with significant lags…net migration, population,
county business patterns
Unknown Unknowns
We don’t see it coming
Both immediate risks and long-term trends
Known Knowns
Standard economic metrics like GDP, unemployment rate, inflation rate, housing
starts …etc
Known Unknowns
We know there is an issue but the data is sketchy…financial engineering, student debt, disruptive technology, political risk
-
The Heartbeat of the U.S. Economy
Source: BEA
Real Gross Domestic Product, Annualized Percent Change
Chart1
'48
6.68
2.25
0.41
'49
-1.33
4.47
-3.53
'50
12.65
16.34
7.94
'51
7.13
8.5
0.89
'52
0.83
2.93
13.79
'53
3.16
-2.23
-5.93
'54
0.43
4.61
8.03
'55
6.67
5.48
2.44
'56
3.35
-0.33
6.7
'57
-0.88
3.95
-4.04
'58
2.65
9.59
9.69
'59
10.09
-0.77
1.59
'60
-1.52
1.01
-4.76
'61
7.64
6.84
8.36
'62
4.37
3.86
1.56
'63
5.31
8.05
2.89
'64
4.85
5.55
1.42
'65
5.58
8.38
9.76
'66
1.65
2.88
3.47
'67
0.35
3.5
3.25
'68
6.92
2.91
1.79
'69
1.29
2.52
-1.73
'70
0.71
3.59
-4.05
'71
2.3
3.17
1.17
'72
9.59
3.73
6.81
'73
4.61
-2.16
3.79
'74
1.06
-3.82
-1.59
'75
3.12
6.78
5.5
'76
3.06
2.05
3.04
'77
8.08
7.27
0.04
'78
16.48
3.97
5.48
'79
0.49
2.91
1.04
'80
-7.87
-0.61
7.62
'81
-2.89
4.67
-4.59
'82
2.19
-1.43
0.39
'83
9.44
8.06
8.51
'84
7.21
3.99
3.23
'85
3.71
6.37
3.03
'86
1.85
4.09
2.09
'87
4.56
3.68
6.77
'88
5.39
2.33
5.41
'89
3.18
3.02
0.85
'90
1.56
0.1
-3.36
'91
3.14
1.93
1.75
'92
4.48
3.95
4.07
'93
2.4
1.96
5.45
'94
5.58
2.38
4.62
'95
1.4
3.47
2.87
'96
7.17
3.75
4.29
'97
6.17
5.19
3.14
'98
3.94
5.34
6.73
'99
3.34
5.13
7.12
'00
7.77
0.48
2.29
'01
2.14
-1.26
1.12
'02
2.22
1.96
0.25
'03
3.76
6.87
4.76
'04
2.96
3.69
3.5
'05
2.1
3.4
2.3
'06
1.2
0.36
3.17
'07
3.1
2.72
1.43
'08
2
-1.91
-8.19
'09
-0.54
1.31
3.93
'10
3.92
2.73
2.54
'11
2.94
0.84
4.58
'12
1.88
0.48
0.09
'13
0.77
3.12
3.96
'14
3.96
4.96
2.31
'15
2.61
1.99
0.87
'16
1.1
Gross Domestic Product, (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR) for United States
6.01
-5.35
16.92
5.59
4.3
7.65
-1.85
11.92
-1.54
2.61
-9.96
7.64
9.22
2.75
7.41
4.53
8.93
10.24
10.25
3.72
8.38
6.36
-0.71
11.14
7.37
10.22
-3.28
-4.75
9.35
4.74
1.4
0.79
1.3
8.54
-6.52
5.35
8.19
4.03
3.76
2.83
2.27
4.09
4.45
-1.86
4.81
0.75
3.98
1.38
2.65
3.08
4.02
3.23
1.17
-1.13
3.73
2.09
2.32
4.33
4.89
0.25
-2.7
-5.43
1.74
-1.54
2.68
2.83
-1.18
2.05
0.83
Sheet1
Gross Domestic Product, (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR) for United States
'486.01
6.68
2.25
0.41
'49-5.35
-1.33
4.47
-3.53
'5016.92
12.65
16.34
7.94
'515.59
7.13
8.5
0.89
'524.3
0.83
2.93
13.79
'537.65
3.16
-2.23
-5.93
'54-1.85
0.43
4.61
8.03
'5511.92
6.67
5.48
2.44
'56-1.54
3.35
-0.33
6.7
'572.61
-0.88
3.95
-4.04
'58-9.96
2.65
9.59
9.69
'597.64
10.09
-0.77
1.59
'609.22
-1.52
1.01
-4.76
'612.75
7.64
6.84
8.36
'627.41
4.37
3.86
1.56
'634.53
5.31
8.05
2.89
'648.93
4.85
5.55
1.42
'6510.24
5.58
8.38
9.76
'6610.25
1.65
2.88
3.47
'673.72
0.35
3.5
3.25
'688.38
6.92
2.91
1.79
'696.36
1.29
2.52
-1.73
'70-0.71
0.71
3.59
-4.05
'7111.14
2.3
3.17
1.17
'727.37
9.59
3.73
6.81
'7310.22
4.61
-2.16
3.79
'74-3.28
1.06
-3.82
-1.59
'75-4.75
3.12
6.78
5.5
'769.35
3.06
2.05
3.04
'774.74
8.08
7.27
0.04
'781.4
16.48
3.97
5.48
'790.79
0.49
2.91
1.04
'801.3
-7.87
-0.61
7.62
'818.54
-2.89
4.67
-4.59
'82-6.52
2.19
-1.43
0.39
'835.35
9.44
8.06
8.51
'848.19
7.21
3.99
3.23
'854.03
3.71
6.37
3.03
'863.76
1.85
4.09
2.09
'872.83
4.56
3.68
6.77
'882.27
5.39
2.33
5.41
'894.09
3.18
3.02
0.85
'904.45
1.56
0.1
-3.36
'91-1.86
3.14
1.93
1.75
'924.81
4.48
3.95
4.07
'930.75
2.4
1.96
5.45
'943.98
5.58
2.38
4.62
'951.38
1.4
3.47
2.87
'962.65
7.17
3.75
4.29
'973.08
6.17
5.19
3.14
'984.02
3.94
5.34
6.73
'993.23
3.34
5.13
7.12
'001.17
7.77
0.48
2.29
'01-1.13
2.14
-1.26
1.12
'023.73
2.22
1.96
0.25
'032.09
3.76
6.87
4.76
'042.32
2.96
3.69
3.5
'054.33
2.1
3.4
2.3
'064.89
1.2
0.36
3.17
'070.25
3.1
2.72
1.43
'08-2.7
2
-1.91
-8.19
'09-5.43
-0.54
1.31
3.93
'101.74
3.92
2.73
2.54
'11-1.54
2.94
0.84
4.58
'122.68
1.88
0.48
0.09
'132.83
0.77
3.12
3.96
'14-1.18
3.96
4.96
2.31
'152.05
2.61
1.99
0.87
'160.83
1.1
-
The Heartbeat of the U.S. Economy
Source: BEA
Real Gross Domestic Product, Annualized Percent Change
“The Great Moderation”
Manufacturing ServicesFederal Reserve Monetary Policy
Chart1
'48
6.68
2.25
0.41
'49
-1.33
4.47
-3.53
'50
12.65
16.34
7.94
'51
7.13
8.5
0.89
'52
0.83
2.93
13.79
'53
3.16
-2.23
-5.93
'54
0.43
4.61
8.03
'55
6.67
5.48
2.44
'56
3.35
-0.33
6.7
'57
-0.88
3.95
-4.04
'58
2.65
9.59
9.69
'59
10.09
-0.77
1.59
'60
-1.52
1.01
-4.76
'61
7.64
6.84
8.36
'62
4.37
3.86
1.56
'63
5.31
8.05
2.89
'64
4.85
5.55
1.42
'65
5.58
8.38
9.76
'66
1.65
2.88
3.47
'67
0.35
3.5
3.25
'68
6.92
2.91
1.79
'69
1.29
2.52
-1.73
'70
0.71
3.59
-4.05
'71
2.3
3.17
1.17
'72
9.59
3.73
6.81
'73
4.61
-2.16
3.79
'74
1.06
-3.82
-1.59
'75
3.12
6.78
5.5
'76
3.06
2.05
3.04
'77
8.08
7.27
0.04
'78
16.48
3.97
5.48
'79
0.49
2.91
1.04
'80
-7.87
-0.61
7.62
'81
-2.89
4.67
-4.59
'82
2.19
-1.43
0.39
'83
9.44
8.06
8.51
'84
7.21
3.99
3.23
'85
3.71
6.37
3.03
'86
1.85
4.09
2.09
'87
4.56
3.68
6.77
'88
5.39
2.33
5.41
'89
3.18
3.02
0.85
'90
1.56
0.1
-3.36
'91
3.14
1.93
1.75
'92
4.48
3.95
4.07
'93
2.4
1.96
5.45
'94
5.58
2.38
4.62
'95
1.4
3.47
2.87
'96
7.17
3.75
4.29
'97
6.17
5.19
3.14
'98
3.94
5.34
6.73
'99
3.34
5.13
7.12
'00
7.77
0.48
2.29
'01
2.14
-1.26
1.12
'02
2.22
1.96
0.25
'03
3.76
6.87
4.76
'04
2.96
3.69
3.5
'05
2.1
3.4
2.3
'06
1.2
0.36
3.17
'07
3.1
2.72
1.43
'08
2
-1.91
-8.19
'09
-0.54
1.31
3.93
'10
3.92
2.73
2.54
'11
2.94
0.84
4.58
'12
1.88
0.48
0.09
'13
0.77
3.12
3.96
'14
3.96
4.96
2.31
'15
2.61
1.99
0.87
'16
1.1
Gross Domestic Product, (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR) for United States
6.01
-5.35
16.92
5.59
4.3
7.65
-1.85
11.92
-1.54
2.61
-9.96
7.64
9.22
2.75
7.41
4.53
8.93
10.24
10.25
3.72
8.38
6.36
-0.71
11.14
7.37
10.22
-3.28
-4.75
9.35
4.74
1.4
0.79
1.3
8.54
-6.52
5.35
8.19
4.03
3.76
2.83
2.27
4.09
4.45
-1.86
4.81
0.75
3.98
1.38
2.65
3.08
4.02
3.23
1.17
-1.13
3.73
2.09
2.32
4.33
4.89
0.25
-2.7
-5.43
1.74
-1.54
2.68
2.83
-1.18
2.05
0.83
Sheet1
Gross Domestic Product, (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR) for United States
'486.01
6.68
2.25
0.41
'49-5.35
-1.33
4.47
-3.53
'5016.92
12.65
16.34
7.94
'515.59
7.13
8.5
0.89
'524.3
0.83
2.93
13.79
'537.65
3.16
-2.23
-5.93
'54-1.85
0.43
4.61
8.03
'5511.92
6.67
5.48
2.44
'56-1.54
3.35
-0.33
6.7
'572.61
-0.88
3.95
-4.04
'58-9.96
2.65
9.59
9.69
'597.64
10.09
-0.77
1.59
'609.22
-1.52
1.01
-4.76
'612.75
7.64
6.84
8.36
'627.41
4.37
3.86
1.56
'634.53
5.31
8.05
2.89
'648.93
4.85
5.55
1.42
'6510.24
5.58
8.38
9.76
'6610.25
1.65
2.88
3.47
'673.72
0.35
3.5
3.25
'688.38
6.92
2.91
1.79
'696.36
1.29
2.52
-1.73
'70-0.71
0.71
3.59
-4.05
'7111.14
2.3
3.17
1.17
'727.37
9.59
3.73
6.81
'7310.22
4.61
-2.16
3.79
'74-3.28
1.06
-3.82
-1.59
'75-4.75
3.12
6.78
5.5
'769.35
3.06
2.05
3.04
'774.74
8.08
7.27
0.04
'781.4
16.48
3.97
5.48
'790.79
0.49
2.91
1.04
'801.3
-7.87
-0.61
7.62
'818.54
-2.89
4.67
-4.59
'82-6.52
2.19
-1.43
0.39
'835.35
9.44
8.06
8.51
'848.19
7.21
3.99
3.23
'854.03
3.71
6.37
3.03
'863.76
1.85
4.09
2.09
'872.83
4.56
3.68
6.77
'882.27
5.39
2.33
5.41
'894.09
3.18
3.02
0.85
'904.45
1.56
0.1
-3.36
'91-1.86
3.14
1.93
1.75
'924.81
4.48
3.95
4.07
'930.75
2.4
1.96
5.45
'943.98
5.58
2.38
4.62
'951.38
1.4
3.47
2.87
'962.65
7.17
3.75
4.29
'973.08
6.17
5.19
3.14
'984.02
3.94
5.34
6.73
'993.23
3.34
5.13
7.12
'001.17
7.77
0.48
2.29
'01-1.13
2.14
-1.26
1.12
'023.73
2.22
1.96
0.25
'032.09
3.76
6.87
4.76
'042.32
2.96
3.69
3.5
'054.33
2.1
3.4
2.3
'064.89
1.2
0.36
3.17
'070.25
3.1
2.72
1.43
'08-2.7
2
-1.91
-8.19
'09-5.43
-0.54
1.31
3.93
'101.74
3.92
2.73
2.54
'11-1.54
2.94
0.84
4.58
'122.68
1.88
0.48
0.09
'132.83
0.77
3.12
3.96
'14-1.18
3.96
4.96
2.31
'152.05
2.61
1.99
0.87
'160.83
1.1
-
The Heartbeat of the U.S. Economy
Source: BEA
Real Gross Domestic Product, Annualized Percent Change
“The Great Moderation”
Chart1
'48
6.68
2.25
0.41
'49
-1.33
4.47
-3.53
'50
12.65
16.34
7.94
'51
7.13
8.5
0.89
'52
0.83
2.93
13.79
'53
3.16
-2.23
-5.93
'54
0.43
4.61
8.03
'55
6.67
5.48
2.44
'56
3.35
-0.33
6.7
'57
-0.88
3.95
-4.04
'58
2.65
9.59
9.69
'59
10.09
-0.77
1.59
'60
-1.52
1.01
-4.76
'61
7.64
6.84
8.36
'62
4.37
3.86
1.56
'63
5.31
8.05
2.89
'64
4.85
5.55
1.42
'65
5.58
8.38
9.76
'66
1.65
2.88
3.47
'67
0.35
3.5
3.25
'68
6.92
2.91
1.79
'69
1.29
2.52
-1.73
'70
0.71
3.59
-4.05
'71
2.3
3.17
1.17
'72
9.59
3.73
6.81
'73
4.61
-2.16
3.79
'74
1.06
-3.82
-1.59
'75
3.12
6.78
5.5
'76
3.06
2.05
3.04
'77
8.08
7.27
0.04
'78
16.48
3.97
5.48
'79
0.49
2.91
1.04
'80
-7.87
-0.61
7.62
'81
-2.89
4.67
-4.59
'82
2.19
-1.43
0.39
'83
9.44
8.06
8.51
'84
7.21
3.99
3.23
'85
3.71
6.37
3.03
'86
1.85
4.09
2.09
'87
4.56
3.68
6.77
'88
5.39
2.33
5.41
'89
3.18
3.02
0.85
'90
1.56
0.1
-3.36
'91
3.14
1.93
1.75
'92
4.48
3.95
4.07
'93
2.4
1.96
5.45
'94
5.58
2.38
4.62
'95
1.4
3.47
2.87
'96
7.17
3.75
4.29
'97
6.17
5.19
3.14
'98
3.94
5.34
6.73
'99
3.34
5.13
7.12
'00
7.77
0.48
2.29
'01
2.14
-1.26
1.12
'02
2.22
1.96
0.25
'03
3.76
6.87
4.76
'04
2.96
3.69
3.5
'05
2.1
3.4
2.3
'06
1.2
0.36
3.17
'07
3.1
2.72
1.43
'08
2
-1.91
-8.19
'09
-0.54
1.31
3.93
'10
3.92
2.73
2.54
'11
2.94
0.84
4.58
'12
1.88
0.48
0.09
'13
0.77
3.12
3.96
'14
3.96
4.96
2.31
'15
2.61
1.99
0.87
'16
1.1
Gross Domestic Product, (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR) for United States
6.01
-5.35
16.92
5.59
4.3
7.65
-1.85
11.92
-1.54
2.61
-9.96
7.64
9.22
2.75
7.41
4.53
8.93
10.24
10.25
3.72
8.38
6.36
-0.71
11.14
7.37
10.22
-3.28
-4.75
9.35
4.74
1.4
0.79
1.3
8.54
-6.52
5.35
8.19
4.03
3.76
2.83
2.27
4.09
4.45
-1.86
4.81
0.75
3.98
1.38
2.65
3.08
4.02
3.23
1.17
-1.13
3.73
2.09
2.32
4.33
4.89
0.25
-2.7
-5.43
1.74
-1.54
2.68
2.83
-1.18
2.05
0.83
Sheet1
Gross Domestic Product, (Bil. Ch. 2009 USD, SAAR) for United States
'486.01
6.68
2.25
0.41
'49-5.35
-1.33
4.47
-3.53
'5016.92
12.65
16.34
7.94
'515.59
7.13
8.5
0.89
'524.3
0.83
2.93
13.79
'537.65
3.16
-2.23
-5.93
'54-1.85
0.43
4.61
8.03
'5511.92
6.67
5.48
2.44
'56-1.54
3.35
-0.33
6.7
'572.61
-0.88
3.95
-4.04
'58-9.96
2.65
9.59
9.69
'597.64
10.09
-0.77
1.59
'609.22
-1.52
1.01
-4.76
'612.75
7.64
6.84
8.36
'627.41
4.37
3.86
1.56
'634.53
5.31
8.05
2.89
'648.93
4.85
5.55
1.42
'6510.24
5.58
8.38
9.76
'6610.25
1.65
2.88
3.47
'673.72
0.35
3.5
3.25
'688.38
6.92
2.91
1.79
'696.36
1.29
2.52
-1.73
'70-0.71
0.71
3.59
-4.05
'7111.14
2.3
3.17
1.17
'727.37
9.59
3.73
6.81
'7310.22
4.61
-2.16
3.79
'74-3.28
1.06
-3.82
-1.59
'75-4.75
3.12
6.78
5.5
'769.35
3.06
2.05
3.04
'774.74
8.08
7.27
0.04
'781.4
16.48
3.97
5.48
'790.79
0.49
2.91
1.04
'801.3
-7.87
-0.61
7.62
'818.54
-2.89
4.67
-4.59
'82-6.52
2.19
-1.43
0.39
'835.35
9.44
8.06
8.51
'848.19
7.21
3.99
3.23
'854.03
3.71
6.37
3.03
'863.76
1.85
4.09
2.09
'872.83
4.56
3.68
6.77
'882.27
5.39
2.33
5.41
'894.09
3.18
3.02
0.85
'904.45
1.56
0.1
-3.36
'91-1.86
3.14
1.93
1.75
'924.81
4.48
3.95
4.07
'930.75
2.4
1.96
5.45
'943.98
5.58
2.38
4.62
'951.38
1.4
3.47
2.87
'962.65
7.17
3.75
4.29
'973.08
6.17
5.19
3.14
'984.02
3.94
5.34
6.73
'993.23
3.34
5.13
7.12
'001.17
7.77
0.48
2.29
'01-1.13
2.14
-1.26
1.12
'023.73
2.22
1.96
0.25
'032.09
3.76
6.87
4.76
'042.32
2.96
3.69
3.5
'054.33
2.1
3.4
2.3
'064.89
1.2
0.36
3.17
'070.25
3.1
2.72
1.43
'08-2.7
2
-1.91
-8.19
'09-5.43
-0.54
1.31
3.93
'101.74
3.92
2.73
2.54
'11-1.54
2.94
0.84
4.58
'122.68
1.88
0.48
0.09
'132.83
0.77
3.12
3.96
'14-1.18
3.96
4.96
2.31
'152.05
2.61
1.99
0.87
'160.83
1.1
-
Potential GDP As a Guide to Economic Performance
Source: BLS
Labor Force, Pchya 8MA
Output per Hour, Pchya 8MA
Productivity Growth and Labor Force Growth
Chart1
'55'55
0.963755.15
0.76254.825
0.514.6375
'56'56
0.1853.6875
0.0452.925
0.026252.275
'57'57
0.488752.1625
0.72752.325
0.83752.175
'58'58
0.9451.6875
1.086251.95
1.21752.2
'59'59
0.948752.95
1.132.975
1.5053.1125
'60'60
2.2252.725
2.29252.3
2.2351.85
'61'61
2.17251.0375
1.896250.975
1.523751
'62'62
0.903751.475
0.833751.9625
0.84752.45
'63'63
0.938753.2125
0.983.15
1.053752.95
'64'64
1.223753.125
1.308752.9125
1.458752.3875
'65'65
1.6951.3375
1.686251.525
1.521252.2375
'66'66
1.046253.1375
0.85753.475
0.69253.9375
'67'67
0.618754.3875
0.728754.4
0.9654.0125
'68'68
1.5053.625
1.64253.4375
1.7253.15
'69'69
1.733752.9125
1.7852.7375
1.83.025
'70'70
1.713.325
1.726253.3875
1.806253.4125
'71'71
1.8853.325
1.913753.25
1.943752.775
'72'72
2.083752.425
2.058752.5125
1.942.6875
'73'73
2.013752.45
2.078752.125
2.148751.825
'74'74
2.313750.9625
2.401250.8875
2.563750.825
'75'75
2.438751.8
2.34252.2375
2.252.7
'76'76
2.353.3125
2.4753.35
2.513753.65
'77'77
2.723.7
2.79753.5625
2.938753.2375
'78'78
2.913752.0875
2.86751.4125
2.813750.7125
'79'79
2.68125-0.15
2.606250.15
2.411250.525
'80'80
2.196252.0125
2.1652.625
2.243753.0875
'81'81
2.4653.2125
2.552.9375
2.74252.5625
'82'82
31.7875
3.08751.5375
3.1151.5
'83'83
3.111.2
3.09250.8125
2.976250.55
'84'84
2.7050.2125
2.513750.075
2.295-0.1625
'85'85
2.020.1875
1.86250.575
1.7550.7625
'86'86
1.4750.4625
1.47750.325
1.516250.3
'87'87
1.336250.7375
1.351.1125
1.29751.7125
'88'88
1.52.825
1.463753.225
1.483.3125
'89'89
1.67252.6625
1.678752.225
1.75751.8875
'90'90
1.761252.05
1.861252.2
1.88252.3125
'91'91
1.871252.15
1.883751.9125
1.881251.775
'92'92
1.771251.3375
1.668751.2
1.611.0875
'93'93
1.6451.175
1.6651.3125
1.653751.275
'94'94
1.7451.3625
1.741.4125
1.706251.425
'95'95
1.318751.5
1.146251.5875
1.006251.8875
'96'96
0.852.4625
0.8852.7
0.88753.05
'97'97
0.998752.9625
1.042.675
1.116252.2125
'98'98
1.163751.3875
1.1050.9375
1.143750.525
'99'99
1.22750.4125
1.26750.625
1.20250.8125
'00'00
1.06751.15
1.081.5
1.10251.7
'01'01
1.30251.95
1.39252.0125
1.49752.15
'02'02
1.5352.25
1.47252.2375
1.3852.35
'03'03
1.22252.875
1.162.9875
1.1253.175
'04'04
1.493753.2875
1.6453.325
1.773.25
'05'05
1.643753.0375
1.59753.075
1.56753.025
'06'06
1.11253.45
0.97753.5625
0.793753.5875
'07'07
0.93.525
0.911253.7125
0.943754.0125
'08'08
0.883753.8375
0.846253.575
0.86753.4
'09'09
0.8553.35
0.921253.0625
0.948752.5875
'10'10
1.19751.8375
1.261251.575
1.356251.4875
'11'11
1.4051.1375
1.343751.2125
1.2751.275
'12'12
1.11.2875
1.066251.3375
0.95751.175
'13'13
0.69251.45
0.541251.55
0.34751.9375
'14'14
0.073752.7
-0.071252.95
-0.141253.225
'15'15
-0.3052.8625
-0.291252.3875
-0.181251.7125
'16'16
0.130.9
Productivity pchya MA8
Labor Force pchya 8MA
1.155
5.2
0.3925
4.15
0.21
2.1
0.8325
1.925
0.985
2.625
1.96
2.9375
2.29125
1.475
1.1325
1.1
0.885
2.825
1.135
3.3375
1.645
1.55
1.32625
2.725
0.54125
4.35
1.22625
3.65
1.765
3.1125
1.7875
3.225
1.83625
3.3
1.97625
2.4875
1.99875
2.7375
2.26625
1.2875
2.49
1.2875
2.2625
3.0375
2.585
3.725
3.00625
2.8
2.745
0.025
2.2375
1.2875
2.3675
3.3125
2.88375
2.0375
3.19375
1.45
2.82375
0.525
2.0675
-0.1125
1.62125
0.475
1.46125
0.375
1.38125
2.4625
1.60875
3.1375
1.75875
1.8375
1.83875
2.2125
1.87125
1.6125
1.61125
1.125
1.7075
1.25
1.50375
1.425
0.8775
2.2625
0.97
3.1375
1.19
1.7125
1.17875
0.3625
1.08
0.9625
1.2075
1.85
1.5625
2.2875
1.29375
2.6375
1.295
3.075
1.735
3.1375
1.3
3.4625
0.81375
3.45
0.9675
3.85
0.84375
3.525
1.0725
2.1875
1.4425
1.2
1.1475
1.2625
0.78375
1.3
0.23375
2.4375
-0.21
3.1
-0.02625
1.1875
Sheet1
Productivity pchya MA8Labor Force pchya 8MA
'551.1555.2
0.963755.15
0.76254.825
0.514.6375
'560.39254.15
0.1853.6875
0.0452.925
0.026252.275
'570.212.1
0.488752.1625
0.72752.325
0.83752.175
'580.83251.925
0.9451.6875
1.086251.95
1.21752.2
'590.9852.625
0.948752.95
1.132.975
1.5053.1125
'601.962.9375
2.2252.725
2.29252.3
2.2351.85
'612.291251.475
2.17251.0375
1.896250.975
1.523751
'621.13251.1
0.903751.475
0.833751.9625
0.84752.45
'630.8852.825
0.938753.2125
0.983.15
1.053752.95
'641.1353.3375
1.223753.125
1.308752.9125
1.458752.3875
'651.6451.55
1.6951.3375
1.686251.525
1.521252.2375
'661.326252.725
1.046253.1375
0.85753.475
0.69253.9375
'670.541254.35
0.618754.3875
0.728754.4
0.9654.0125
'681.226253.65
1.5053.625
1.64253.4375
1.7253.15
'691.7653.1125
1.733752.9125
1.7852.7375
1.83.025
'701.78753.225
1.713.325
1.726253.3875
1.806253.4125
'711.836253.3
1.8853.325
1.913753.25
1.943752.775
'721.976252.4875
2.083752.425
2.058752.5125
1.942.6875
'731.998752.7375
2.013752.45
2.078752.125
2.148751.825
'742.266251.2875
2.313750.9625
2.401250.8875
2.563750.825
'752.491.2875
2.438751.8
2.34252.2375
2.252.7
'762.26253.0375
2.353.3125
2.4753.35
2.513753.65
'772.5853.725
2.723.7
2.79753.5625
2.938753.2375
'783.006252.8
2.913752.0875
2.86751.4125
2.813750.7125
'792.7450.025
2.68125-0.15
2.606250.15
2.411250.525
'802.23751.2875
2.196252.0125
2.1652.625
2.243753.0875
'812.36753.3125
2.4653.2125
2.552.9375
2.74252.5625
'822.883752.0375
31.7875
3.08751.5375
3.1151.5
'833.193751.45
3.111.2
3.09250.8125
2.976250.55
'842.823750.525
2.7050.2125
2.513750.075
2.295-0.1625
'852.0675-0.1125
2.020.1875
1.86250.575
1.7550.7625
'861.621250.475
1.4750.4625
1.47750.325
1.516250.3
'871.461250.375
1.336250.7375
1.351.1125
1.29751.7125
'881.381252.4625
1.52.825
1.463753.225
1.483.3125
'891.608753.1375
1.67252.6625
1.678752.225
1.75751.8875
'901.758751.8375
1.761252.05
1.861252.2
1.88252.3125
'911.838752.2125
1.871252.15
1.883751.9125
1.881251.775
'921.871251.6125
1.771251.3375
1.668751.2
1.611.0875
'931.611251.125
1.6451.175
1.6651.3125
1.653751.275
'941.70751.25
1.7451.3625
1.741.4125
1.706251.425
'951.503751.425
1.318751.5
1.146251.5875
1.006251.8875
'960.87752.2625
0.852.4625
0.8852.7
0.88753.05
'970.973.1375
0.998752.9625
1.042.675
1.116252.2125
'981.191.7125
1.163751.3875
1.1050.9375
1.143750.525
'991.178750.3625
1.22750.4125
1.26750.625
1.20250.8125
'001.080.9625
1.06751.15
1.081.5
1.10251.7
'011.20751.85
1.30251.95
1.39252.0125
1.49752.15
'021.56252.2875
1.5352.25
1.47252.2375
1.3852.35
'031.293752.6375
1.22252.875
1.162.9875
1.1253.175
'041.2953.075
1.493753.2875
1.6453.325
1.773.25
'051.7353.1375
1.643753.0375
1.59753.075
1.56753.025
'061.33.4625
1.11253.45
0.97753.5625
0.793753.5875
'070.813753.45
0.93.525
0.911253.7125
0.943754.0125
'080.96753.85
0.883753.8375
0.846253.575
0.86753.4
'090.843753.525
0.8553.35
0.921253.0625
0.948752.5875
'101.07252.1875
1.19751.8375
1.261251.575
1.356251.4875
'111.44251.2
1.4051.1375
1.343751.2125
1.2751.275
'121.14751.2625
1.11.2875
1.066251.3375
0.95751.175
'130.783751.3
0.69251.45
0.541251.55
0.34751.9375
'140.233752.4375
0.073752.7
-0.071252.95
-0.141253.225
'15-0.213.1
-0.3052.8625
-0.291252.3875
-0.181251.7125
'16-0.026251.1875
0.130.9
-
Potential GDP As a Guide to Economic Performance
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
'55 '60 '65 '70 '75 '80 '85 '90 '95 '00 '05 '10 '15
Source: BLS
Labor Force, Pchya 8MA
Output per Hour, Pchya 8MA
Productivity Growth and Labor Force Growth
Chart1
'55'55
0.963755.15
0.76254.825
0.514.6375
'56'56
0.1853.6875
0.0452.925
0.026252.275
'57'57
0.488752.1625
0.72752.325
0.83752.175
'58'58
0.9451.6875
1.086251.95
1.21752.2
'59'59
0.948752.95
1.132.975
1.5053.1125
'60'60
2.2252.725
2.29252.3
2.2351.85
'61'61
2.17251.0375
1.896250.975
1.523751
'62'62
0.903751.475
0.833751.9625
0.84752.45
'63'63
0.938753.2125
0.983.15
1.053752.95
'64'64
1.223753.125
1.308752.9125
1.458752.3875
'65'65
1.6951.3375
1.686251.525
1.521252.2375
'66'66
1.046253.1375
0.85753.475
0.69253.9375
'67'67
0.618754.3875
0.728754.4
0.9654.0125
'68'68
1.5053.625
1.64253.4375
1.7253.15
'69'69
1.733752.9125
1.7852.7375
1.83.025
'70'70
1.713.325
1.726253.3875
1.806253.4125
'71'71
1.8853.325
1.913753.25
1.943752.775
'72'72
2.083752.425
2.058752.5125
1.942.6875
'73'73
2.013752.45
2.078752.125
2.148751.825
'74'74
2.313750.9625
2.401250.8875
2.563750.825
'75'75
2.438751.8
2.34252.2375
2.252.7
'76'76
2.353.3125
2.4753.35
2.513753.65
'77'77
2.723.7
2.79753.5625
2.938753.2375
'78'78
2.913752.0875
2.86751.4125
2.813750.7125
'79'79
2.68125-0.15
2.606250.15
2.411250.525
'80'80
2.196252.0125
2.1652.625
2.243753.0875
'81'81
2.4653.2125
2.552.9375
2.74252.5625
'82'82
31.7875
3.08751.5375
3.1151.5
'83'83
3.111.2
3.09250.8125
2.976250.55
'84'84
2.7050.2125
2.513750.075
2.295-0.1625
'85'85
2.020.1875
1.86250.575
1.7550.7625
'86'86
1.4750.4625
1.47750.325
1.516250.3
'87'87
1.336250.7375
1.351.1125
1.29751.7125
'88'88
1.52.825
1.463753.225
1.483.3125
'89'89
1.67252.6625
1.678752.225
1.75751.8875
'90'90
1.761252.05
1.861252.2
1.88252.3125
'91'91
1.871252.15
1.883751.9125
1.881251.775
'92'92
1.771251.3375
1.668751.2
1.611.0875
'93'93
1.6451.175
1.6651.3125
1.653751.275
'94'94
1.7451.3625
1.741.4125
1.706251.425
'95'95
1.318751.5
1.146251.5875
1.006251.8875
'96'96
0.852.4625
0.8852.7
0.88753.05
'97'97
0.998752.9625
1.042.675
1.116252.2125
'98'98
1.163751.3875
1.1050.9375
1.143750.525
'99'99
1.22750.4125
1.26750.625
1.20250.8125
'00'00
1.06751.15
1.081.5
1.10251.7
'01'01
1.30251.95
1.39252.0125
1.49752.15
'02'02
1.5352.25
1.47252.2375
1.3852.35
'03'03
1.22252.875
1.162.9875
1.1253.175
'04'04
1.493753.2875
1.6453.325
1.773.25
'05'05
1.643753.0375
1.59753.075
1.56753.025
'06'06
1.11253.45
0.97753.5625
0.793753.5875
'07'07
0.93.525
0.911253.7125
0.943754.0125
'08'08
0.883753.8375
0.846253.575
0.86753.4
'09'09
0.8553.35
0.921253.0625
0.948752.5875
'10'10
1.19751.8375
1.261251.575
1.356251.4875
'11'11
1.4051.1375
1.343751.2125
1.2751.275
'12'12
1.11.2875
1.066251.3375
0.95751.175
'13'13
0.69251.45
0.541251.55
0.34751.9375
'14'14
0.073752.7
-0.071252.95
-0.141253.225
'15'15
-0.3052.8625
-0.291252.3875
-0.181251.7125
'16'16
0.130.9
Productivity pchya MA8
Labor Force pchya 8MA
1.155
5.2
0.3925
4.15
0.21
2.1
0.8325
1.925
0.985
2.625
1.96
2.9375
2.29125
1.475
1.1325
1.1
0.885
2.825
1.135
3.3375
1.645
1.55
1.32625
2.725
0.54125
4.35
1.22625
3.65
1.765
3.1125
1.7875
3.225
1.83625
3.3
1.97625
2.4875
1.99875
2.7375
2.26625
1.2875
2.49
1.2875
2.2625
3.0375
2.585
3.725
3.00625
2.8
2.745
0.025
2.2375
1.2875
2.3675
3.3125
2.88375
2.0375
3.19375
1.45
2.82375
0.525
2.0675
-0.1125
1.62125
0.475
1.46125
0.375
1.38125
2.4625
1.60875
3.1375
1.75875
1.8375
1.83875
2.2125
1.87125
1.6125
1.61125
1.125
1.7075
1.25
1.50375
1.425
0.8775
2.2625
0.97
3.1375
1.19
1.7125
1.17875
0.3625
1.08
0.9625
1.2075
1.85
1.5625
2.2875
1.29375
2.6375
1.295
3.075
1.735
3.1375
1.3
3.4625
0.81375
3.45
0.9675
3.85
0.84375
3.525
1.0725
2.1875
1.4425
1.2
1.1475
1.2625
0.78375
1.3
0.23375
2.4375
-0.21
3.1
-0.02625
1.1875
Sheet1
Productivity pchya MA8Labor Force pchya 8MA
'551.1555.2
0.963755.15
0.76254.825
0.514.6375
'560.39254.15
0.1853.6875
0.0452.925
0.026252.275
'570.212.1
0.488752.1625
0.72752.325
0.83752.175
'580.83251.925
0.9451.6875
1.086251.95
1.21752.2
'590.9852.625
0.948752.95
1.132.975
1.5053.1125
'601.962.9375
2.2252.725
2.29252.3
2.2351.85
'612.291251.475
2.17251.0375
1.896250.975
1.523751
'621.13251.1
0.903751.475
0.833751.9625
0.84752.45
'630.8852.825
0.938753.2125
0.983.15
1.053752.95
'641.1353.3375
1.223753.125
1.308752.9125
1.458752.3875
'651.6451.55
1.6951.3375
1.686251.525
1.521252.2375
'661.326252.725
1.046253.1375
0.85753.475
0.69253.9375
'670.541254.35
0.618754.3875
0.728754.4
0.9654.0125
'681.226253.65
1.5053.625
1.64253.4375
1.7253.15
'691.7653.1125
1.733752.9125
1.7852.7375
1.83.025
'701.78753.225
1.713.325
1.726253.3875
1.806253.4125
'711.836253.3
1.8853.325
1.913753.25
1.943752.775
'721.976252.4875
2.083752.425
2.058752.5125
1.942.6875
'731.998752.7375
2.013752.45
2.078752.125
2.148751.825
'742.266251.2875
2.313750.9625
2.401250.8875
2.563750.825
'752.491.2875
2.438751.8
2.34252.2375
2.252.7
'762.26253.0375
2.353.3125
2.4753.35
2.513753.65
'772.5853.725
2.723.7
2.79753.5625
2.938753.2375
'783.006252.8
2.913752.0875
2.86751.4125
2.813750.7125
'792.7450.025
2.68125-0.15
2.606250.15
2.411250.525
'802.23751.2875
2.196252.0125
2.1652.625
2.243753.0875
'812.36753.3125
2.4653.2125
2.552.9375
2.74252.5625
'822.883752.0375
31.7875
3.08751.5375
3.1151.5
'833.193751.45
3.111.2
3.09250.8125
2.976250.55
'842.823750.525
2.7050.2125
2.513750.075
2.295-0.1625
'852.0675-0.1125
2.020.1875
1.86250.575
1.7550.7625
'861.621250.475
1.4750.4625
1.47750.325
1.516250.3
'871.461250.375
1.336250.7375
1.351.1125
1.29751.7125
'881.381252.4625
1.52.825
1.463753.225
1.483.3125
'891.608753.1375
1.67252.6625
1.678752.225
1.75751.8875
'901.758751.8375
1.761252.05
1.861252.2
1.88252.3125
'911.838752.2125
1.871252.15
1.883751.9125
1.881251.775
'921.871251.6125
1.771251.3375
1.668751.2
1.611.0875
'931.611251.125
1.6451.175
1.6651.3125
1.653751.275
'941.70751.25
1.7451.3625
1.741.4125
1.706251.425
'951.503751.425
1.318751.5
1.146251.5875
1.006251.8875
'960.87752.2625
0.852.4625
0.8852.7
0.88753.05
'970.973.1375
0.998752.9625
1.042.675
1.116252.2125
'981.191.7125
1.163751.3875
1.1050.9375
1.143750.525
'991.178750.3625
1.22750.4125
1.26750.625
1.20250.8125
'001.080.9625
1.06751.15
1.081.5
1.10251.7
'011.20751.85
1.30251.95
1.39252.0125
1.49752.15
'021.56252.2875
1.5352.25
1.47252.2375
1.3852.35
'031.293752.6375
1.22252.875
1.162.9875
1.1253.175
'041.2953.075
1.493753.2875
1.6453.325
1.773.25
'051.7353.1375
1.643753.0375
1.59753.075
1.56753.025
'061.33.4625
1.11253.45
0.97753.5625
0.793753.5875
'070.813753.45
0.93.525
0.911253.7125
0.943754.0125
'080.96753.85
0.883753.8375
0.846253.575
0.86753.4
'090.843753.525
0.8553.35
0.921253.0625
0.948752.5875
'101.07252.1875
1.19751.8375
1.261251.575
1.356251.4875
'111.44251.2
1.4051.1375
1.343751.2125
1.2751.275
'121.14751.2625
1.11.2875
1.066251.3375
0.95751.175
'130.783751.3
0.69251.45
0.541251.55
0.34751.9375
'140.233752.4375
0.073752.7
-0.071252.95
-0.141253.225
'15-0.213.1
-0.3052.8625
-0.291252.3875
-0.181251.7125
'16-0.026251.1875
0.130.9
-
GDP Forecast, Ongoing Moderate Expansion
Sources: BEA, Comerica Bank
U.S. Real GDP Growth, Annualized Percent Change
ForecastHistory
Chart1
20082008
Q2Q2
Q3Q3
Q4Q4
20092009
Q2Q2
Q3Q3
Q4Q4
20102010
Q2Q2
Q3Q3
Q4Q4
20112011
Q2Q2
Q3Q3
Q4Q4
20122012
Q2Q2
Q3Q3
Q4Q4
20132013
Q2Q2
Q3Q3
Q4Q4
20142014
Q2Q2
Q3Q3
Q4Q4
20152015
Q2Q2
Q3Q3
Q4Q4
20162016
Q2Q2
Q3Q3
Q4Q4
20172017
Q2Q2
Q3Q3
Q4Q4
20182018
Q2Q2
Q3Q3
Q4Q4
History
Forecast
-2.7016810225
2.0001208001
-1.9055793794
-8.1863683067
-5.4288220924
-0.5387342741
1.3132251021
3.92812202
1.7414308337
3.9208478432
2.7292647304
2.5431824585
-1.5360217282
2.9429684465
0.8432361911
4.582364043
2.6781769427
1.8808881762
0.4799532297
0
0.0910536475
2.8271452722
0.7690604094
3.1206007714
3.9599716078
-1.1825200582
3.9643853504
4.9624735132
2.311231899
2.0493319098
2.6117102634
1.9860159454
0.8731016686
0.8345834299
1.1
2
2.5
2.8
2.4
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.2
Sheet1
HistoryForecastrgdp
2008-2.7
Q22.0
Q3-1.9
Q4-8.2
2009-5.4
Q2-0.5
Q31.3
Q43.9
20101.7
Q23.9
Q32.7
Q42.5
2011-1.5
Q22.9
Q30.8
Q44.6
20122.7
Q21.9
Q30.5
Q40.1
20132.8
Q20.8
Q33.1
Q44.00.64297498823.92104511751.98353303921.38646112370.5377951008
2014-1.21.58895789691.26244967782.0798930876
Q24.0
Q35.0
Q42.3
20152.0
Q22.6
Q32.0
Q40.9
20160.8
Q21.1
Q32
Q42.5
20172.8
Q22.4
Q32.3
Q42.4
20182.2
Q22.3
Q32.3
Q42.2
-
Unemployment Rate Approaching Lower Bound
Payroll Employment, avg monthly diff, ths (L)
Unemployment Rate, percent (R)
Sources: BLS, Comerica Bank
+151k in August, U. Rate 4.9 Percent Forecast
Chart1
'07'07'07'07
118.77777777784.5
26.66666666674.6666666667
81.55555555564.8
'08'08'08'08
-156.33333333335.3333333333
-236.22222222226
-535.77777777786.8666666667
'09'09'09'09
-619.88888888899.3
-324.55555555569.6333333333
-171.44444444449.9333333333
'10'10'10'10
210.77777777789.6333333333
-8.22222222229.4666666667
107.44444444449.5
'11'11'11'11
228.55555555569.0666666667
134.77777777789
189.33333333338.6333333333
'12'12'12'12
141.88888888898.2
142.11111111118.0333333333
165.44444444447.8
'13'13'13'13
193.22222222227.5333333333
183.66666666677.3
203.66666666676.9333333333
'14'14'14'14
263.77777777786.1666666667
249.22222222226.1333333333
260.44444444445.7
'15'15'15'15
217.77777777785.4
223.22222222225.1666666667
240.44444444445
'16'16'16'16
150.66674.874.87
205.84.9
187.24.8
'17'17'17'17
174.84.7
1704.6
169.74.6
Employment: Total nonfarm, (Ths., SA) for United States
Unemployment rate: Total, (%, SA) for United States
182.1111111111
4.5
12.8888888889
5
-751.2222222222
8.2666666667
-50.6666666667
9.8333333333
114
9.0333333333
258.5555555556
8.2666666667
218
7.7333333333
172.2222222222
6.6666666667
243.5555555556
5.5666666667
219.7767
4.9333333333
179.2
4.7
Sheet1
Employment: Total nonfarm, (Ths., SA) for United StatesUnemployment rate: Total, (%, SA) for United States
'07182.11111111114.5
118.77777777784.5
26.66666666674.6666666667
81.55555555564.8
'0812.88888888895
-156.33333333335.3333333333
-236.22222222226
-535.77777777786.8666666667
'09-751.22222222228.2666666667
-619.88888888899.3
-324.55555555569.6333333333
-171.44444444449.9333333333
'10-50.66666666679.8333333333
210.77777777789.6333333333
-8.22222222229.4666666667
107.44444444449.5
'111149.0333333333
228.55555555569.0666666667
134.77777777789
189.33333333338.6333333333
'12258.55555555568.2666666667
141.88888888898.2
142.11111111118.0333333333
165.44444444447.8
'132187.7333333333
193.22222222227.5333333333
183.66666666677.3
203.66666666676.9333333333
'14172.22222222226.6666666667
263.77777777786.1666666667
249.22222222226.1333333333
260.44444444445.7
'15243.55555555565.5666666667
217.77777777785.4
223.22222222225.1666666667
240.44444444445
'16219.77674.9333333333
150.74.94.9
205.84.9
187.24.8
'17179.24.7
174.84.7
1704.6
169.74.6
Sheet2
-
Upward Pressure on Wages Will Continue
Average Hourly Earnings, percent change year ago
Unemployment Rate
Source: BLS
Unemployment Rate and Hourly Earnings
Chart1
'90'90
5.34.03
5.24.23
5.43.79
5.44.42
5.24.4
5.54.07
5.74.17
5.94.15
5.93.73
6.23.93
6.33.71
'91'91
6.63.18
6.82.97
6.73.36
6.93.25
6.93.04
6.83.13
6.93.13
6.92.92
72.82
72.81
7.32.8
'92'92
7.42.69
7.42.79
7.42.49
7.62.38
7.82.47
7.72.37
7.62.46
7.62.27
7.32.46
7.42.45
7.42.35
'93'93
7.12.53
72.71
7.12.52
7.12.61
72.41
6.92.41
6.82.4
6.72.59
6.82.58
6.62.58
6.52.66
'94'94
6.62.83
6.52.37
6.42.55
6.12.45
6.12.54
6.12.62
62.53
5.92.61
5.82.61
5.62.69
5.52.59
'95'95
5.42.4
5.42.67
5.82.57
5.62.66
5.62.83
5.72.91
5.72.9
5.62.99
5.52.89
5.62.88
5.62.96
'96'96
5.53.04
5.52.94
5.63.37
5.63.36
5.33.44
5.53.34
5.13.42
5.23.5
5.23.49
5.43.65
5.43.73
'97'97
5.23.79
5.24.04
5.13.68
4.93.76
53.57
4.93.65
4.83.97
4.93.79
4.74.19
4.64.18
4.74.08
'98'98
4.64.22
4.74.12
4.34.28
4.44.34
4.54.25
4.54.08
4.54.06
4.64.05
4.53.79
4.43.54
4.43.61
'99'99
4.43.58
4.23.49
4.33.56
4.23.55
4.33.7
4.33.92
4.23.52
4.23.81
4.13.73
4.13.72
43.71
'00'00
4.13.76
43.83
3.83.89
43.8
43.79
43.77
4.13.91
3.93.82
3.93.96
3.94.17
3.94.23
'01'01
4.24.06
4.34.19
4.43.96
4.34.02
4.54.08
4.63.71
4.93.77
53.61
5.33.39
5.53.44
5.73.29
'02'02
5.72.99
5.72.77
5.92.7
5.82.62
5.82.68
5.82.96
5.72.88
5.72.87
5.73.14
5.92.92
63.12
'03'03
5.93.38
5.93.17
62.9
6.13.02
6.32.81
6.22.8
6.12.66
6.12.32
61.98
5.82.11
5.71.71
'04'04
5.61.64
5.81.77
5.62.1
5.62.02
5.62.02
5.51.95
5.42.08
5.42.34
5.52.53
5.42.39
5.42.59
'05'05
5.42.51
5.22.63
5.22.69
5.12.56
52.62
52.87
4.92.73
52.66
53.04
52.9
4.93.09
'06'06
4.83.45
4.73.57
4.73.94
4.63.8
4.63.98
4.73.9
4.74.08
4.54.2
4.43.93
4.54.17
4.44.22
'07'07
4.54.07
4.44.11
4.53.85
4.44.08
4.64.13
4.74.05
4.63.98
4.74.09
4.73.78
4.73.89
53.75
'08'08
4.93.79
5.13.77
53.65
5.43.75
5.63.62
5.83.72
6.13.89
6.13.7
6.53.93
6.83.8
7.33.9
'09'09
8.33.65
8.73.47
93.35
9.43.06
9.52.88
9.52.76
9.62.64
9.82.75
102.68
9.92.68
9.92.5
'10'10
9.82.49
9.92.33
9.92.38
9.62.54
9.42.53
9.42.42
9.52.36
9.52.19
9.42.51
9.82.23
9.32.02
'11'11
92.12
92.06
9.12.16
92.11
9.12.05
92.26
92.04
92.04
8.81.77
8.61.77
8.51.82
'12'12
8.31.45
8.21.76
8.21.65
8.21.44
8.21.54
8.21.33
8.11.28
7.81.38
7.81.28
7.71.48
7.91.69
'13'13
7.72.04
7.51.88
7.61.83
7.51.93
7.52.08
7.31.97
7.32.23
7.32.22
7.22.27
6.92.32
6.72.26
'14'14
6.72.55
6.72.35
6.22.4
6.22.44
6.12.29
6.22.43
6.22.43
62.27
5.72.22
5.82.22
5.61.87
'15'15
5.51.61
5.51.95
5.42
5.52.14
5.31.99
5.32.04
5.12.13
5.12.13
52.41
52.26
52.56
'16'16
4.92.5
52.44
52.53
4.72.33
4.92.48
4.92.61
AA
Unemployment rate: Total, (%, SA) for United States
Avg. Hrly Earnings: Productions Workers - Total Private, (USD Per Hrs., SA) for United States
5.4
3.83
6.4
3.59
7.3
2.6
7.3
2.63
6.6
2.56
5.6
2.5
5.6
3.31
5.3
3.54
4.6
4.07
4.3
3.75
4
3.62
4.2
3.93
5.7
3.29
5.8
3.12
5.7
1.84
5.3
2.58
4.7
3.27
4.6
4.08
5
3.8
7.8
3.72
9.8
2.66
9.1
2.17
8.3
1.35
8
1.94
6.6
2.31
5.7
2.01
4.9
2.5
4.9
2.51
Sheet1
Unemployment rate: Total, (%, SA) for United StatesAvg. Hrly Earnings: Productions Workers - Total Private, (USD Per Hrs., SA) for United States
'905.43.83
5.34.03
5.24.23
5.43.79
5.44.42
5.24.4
5.54.07
5.74.17
5.94.15
5.93.73
6.23.93
6.33.71
'916.43.59
6.63.18
6.82.97
6.73.36
6.93.25
6.93.04
6.83.13
6.93.13
6.92.92
72.82
72.81
7.32.8
'927.32.6
7.42.69
7.42.79
7.42.49
7.62.38
7.82.47
7.72.37
7.62.46
7.62.27
7.32.46
7.42.45
7.42.35
'937.32.63
7.12.53
72.71
7.12.52
7.12.61
72.41
6.92.41
6.82.4
6.72.59
6.82.58
6.62.58
6.52.66
'946.62.56
6.62.83
6.52.37
6.42.55
6.12.45
6.12.54
6.12.62
62.53
5.92.61
5.82.61
5.62.69
5.52.59
'955.62.5
5.42.4
5.42.67
5.82.57
5.62.66
5.62.83
5.72.91
5.72.9
5.62.99
5.52.89
5.62.88
5.62.96
'965.63.31
5.53.04
5.52.94
5.63.37
5.63.36
5.33.44
5.53.34
5.13.42
5.23.5
5.23.49
5.43.65
5.43.73
'975.33.54
5.23.79
5.24.04
5.13.68
4.93.76
53.57
4.93.65
4.83.97
4.93.79
4.74.19
4.64.18
4.74.08
'984.64.07
4.64.22
4.74.12
4.34.28
4.44.34
4.54.25
4.54.08
4.54.06
4.64.05
4.53.79
4.43.54
4.43.61
'994.33.75
4.43.58
4.23.49
4.33.56
4.23.55
4.33.7
4.33.92
4.23.52
4.23.81
4.13.73
4.13.72
43.71
'0043.62
4.13.76
43.83
3.83.89
43.8
43.79
43.77
4.13.91
3.93.82
3.93.96
3.94.17
3.94.23
'014.23.93
4.24.06
4.34.19
4.43.96
4.34.02
4.54.08
4.63.71
4.93.77
53.61
5.33.39
5.53.44
5.73.29
'025.73.29
5.72.99
5.72.77
5.92.7
5.82.62
5.82.68
5.82.96
5.72.88
5.72.87
5.73.14
5.92.92
63.12
'035.83.12
5.93.38
5.93.17
62.9
6.13.02
6.32.81
6.22.8
6.12.66
6.12.32
61.98
5.82.11
5.71.71
'045.71.84
5.61.64
5.81.77
5.62.1
5.62.02
5.62.02
5.51.95
5.42.08
5.42.34
5.52.53
5.42.39
5.42.59
'055.32.58
5.42.51
5.22.63
5.22.69
5.12.56
52.62
52.87
4.92.73
52.66
53.04
52.9
4.93.09
'064.73.27
4.83.45
4.73.57
4.73.94
4.63.8
4.63.98
4.73.9
4.74.08
4.54.2
4.43.93
4.54.17
4.44.22
'074.64.08
4.54.07
4.44.11
4.53.85
4.44.08
4.64.13
4.74.05
4.63.98
4.74.09
4.73.78
4.73.89
53.75
'0853.8
4.93.79
5.13.77
53.65
5.43.75
5.63.62
5.83.72
6.13.89
6.13.7
6.53.93
6.83.8
7.33.9
'097.83.72
8.33.65
8.73.47
93.35
9.43.06
9.52.88
9.52.76
9.62.64
9.82.75
102.68
9.92.68
9.92.5
'109.82.66
9.82.49
9.92.33
9.92.38
9.62.54
9.42.53
9.42.42
9.52.36
9.52.19
9.42.51
9.82.23
9.32.02
'119.12.17
92.12
92.06
9.12.16
92.11
9.12.05
92.26
92.04
92.04
8.81.77
8.61.77
8.51.82
'128.31.35
8.31.45
8.21.76
8.21.65
8.21.44
8.21.54
8.21.33
8.11.28
7.81.38
7.81.28
7.71.48
7.91.69
'1381.94
7.72.04
7.51.88
7.61.83
7.51.93
7.52.08
7.31.97
7.32.23
7.32.22
7.22.27
6.92.32
6.72.26
'146.62.31
6.72.55
6.72.35
6.22.4
6.22.44
6.12.29
6.22.43
6.22.43
62.27
5.72.22
5.82.22
5.61.87
'155.72.01
5.51.61
5.51.95
5.42
5.52.14
5.31.99
5.32.04
5.12.13
5.12.13
52.41
52.26
52.56
'164.92.5
4.92.5
52.44
52.53
4.72.33
4.92.48
4.92.61
A4.92.51
-
Interest Rate Outlook Clouded by Fed Uncertainty
Fed Funds
10-Year Treasury Bond
30-Year FRM
Sources: Federal Reserve, Comerica Bank
Yield, percent
Chart1
200820082008200820082008
2.983.745.92
2.613.515.97
2.283.685.92
1.983.886.04
24.16.32
2.014.016.43
23.896.48
1.813.696.04
0.973.816.2
0.393.536.09
0.162.425.33
200920092009200920092009
0.222.875.13
0.182.825
0.152.934.81
0.183.294.86
0.213.725.42
0.163.565.22
0.163.595.19
0.153.45.06
0.123.394.95
0.123.44.88
0.123.594.93
201020102010201020102010
0.133.694.99
0.163.734.97
0.23.855.1
0.23.424.89
0.183.24.74
0.183.014.56
0.192.74.43
0.192.654.35
0.192.544.23
0.192.764.3
0.183.294.71
201120112011201120112011
0.163.584.95
0.143.414.84
0.13.464.84
0.093.174.64
0.0934.51
0.0734.55
0.12.34.27
0.081.984.11
0.072.154.07
0.082.013.99
0.071.983.96
201220122012201220122012
0.11.973.89
0.132.173.95
0.142.053.91
0.161.83.8
0.161.623.68
0.161.533.55
0.131.683.6
0.141.723.5
0.161.753.38
0.161.653.35
0.161.723.34
201320132013201320132013
0.151.983.53
0.141.963.57
0.151.763.45
0.111.933.54
0.092.34.07
0.092.584.37
0.082.744.46
SSSSSS
OOOOOO
NNNNNN
0.092.94.46
201420142014201420142014
0.072.714.3
0.082.724.34
0.092.714.34
0.092.564.19
0.12.64.16
0.092.544.13
0.092.424.12
0.092.534.16
0.092.34.04
0.092.334
0.122.213.86
201520152015201520152015
0.111.983.71
0.112.043.77
0.121.943.67
0.122.23.84
0.132.363.98
0.132.324.05
0.142.173.91
0.142.173.89
0.122.073.8
0.122.263.94
0.242.243.96
201620162016201620162016
ffffff
mmmmmm
aaaaaa
mmmmmm
jjjjjj
JJJJJJ
AAAAAA
0.381.56275948173.4572673938
0.381.5585226183.4575094475
0.511.55581989033.4513654257
0.631.65434426923.5428155576
201720172017201720172017
0.631.74314808043.6047976742
0.631.73043287153.5698837692
0.631.72879247633.5404553146
0.761.71628999813.5056859587
0.881.83600549513.6089155617
0.881.9476206943.7086772324
0.881.95086744573.7037824215
0.881.94272100093.6897904531
0.881.9350611713.6781249408
1.011.93775009463.6782824671
1.132.05970154993.7982054858
201820182018201820182018
ffffff
mmmmmm
aaaaaa
mmmmmm
jjjjjj
jjjjjj
aaaaaa
ssssss
oooooo
nnnnnn
dddddd
fed Funds
fed funds forecast
10-Y Tbond
10-Y Tbond forecast
30frm
3.94
3.74
5.76
0.15
2.52
5.06
0.11
3.73
5.03
0.17
3.39
4.75
0.08
1.97
3.92
0.14
1.91
3.41
0.08
2.81
4.49
0.09
2.62
4.19
0.08
2.72
4.26
0.07
2.86
4.43
0.11
1.88
3.71
0.34
2.09
3.87
0.38
1.78
3.66
0.36
1.89
3.69
0.37
1.81
3.61
0.37
1.81
3.6
0.38
1.64
3.57
0.39
1.5
3.44
0.39
0.39
1.56
1.56
3.44
3.44
0.63
1.757225566
3.6340985826
1.13
2.1727949733
3.9096735007
1.13
2.166886247
3.9024623167
1.13
2.1614814884
3.8946570843
1.13
2.1565364587
3.8864317286
1.25
2.1620123618
3.8879222705
1.38
2.2767312302
4.0001260251
1.38
2.4025626534
4.1246204598
1.38
2.409354763
4.131019626
1.38
2.4059854168
4.1273354098
1.38
2.4123562124
4.1334538967
1.38
2.409051754
4.1299472604
1.38
2.4062609235
4.1263160226
Sheet1
fed Fundsfed funds forecast10-Y Tbond10-Y Tbond forecast30frm
20083.943.745.76
2.983.745.92
2.613.515.97
2.283.685.92
1.983.886.04
2.004.106.32
2.014.016.43
2.003.896.48
1.813.696.04
0.973.816.2
0.393.536.09
0.162.425.33
20090.152.525.06
0.222.875.13
0.182.825
0.152.934.81
0.183.294.86
0.213.725.42
0.163.565.22
0.163.595.19
0.153.45.06
0.123.394.95
0.123.44.88
0.123.594.93
20100.113.735.03
0.133.694.99
0.163.734.97
0.23.855.1
0.23.424.89
0.183.24.74
0.183.014.56
0.192.74.43
0.192.654.35
0.192.544.23
0.192.764.3
0.183.294.71
20110.173.394.75
0.163.584.95
0.143.414.84
0.103.464.84
0.093.174.64
0.0934.51
0.0734.55
0.102.34.27
0.081.984.11
0.072.154.07
0.082.013.99
0.071.983.96
20120.081.973.92
0.11.973.89
0.132.173.95
0.142.053.91
0.161.83.8
0.161.623.68
0.161.533.55
0.131.683.6
0.141.723.5
0.161.753.38
0.161.653.35
0.161.723.34
20130.141.913.41
0.151.983.53
0.141.963.57
0.151.763.45
0.111.933.54
0.092.34.07
0.092.584.37
0.082.744.46
S0.082.814.49
O0.092.624.19
N0.082.724.26
0.092.94.46
20140.072.864.43
0.072.714.3
0.082.724.34
0.092.714.34
0.092.564.19
0.12.64.16
0.092.544.13
0.092.424.12
0.092.534.16
0.092.34.04
0.092.334
0.122.213.86
20150.111.883.71
0.111.983.71
0.112.043.77
0.121.943.67
0.122.23.84
0.132.363.98
0.132.324.05
0.142.173.91
0.142.173.89
0.122.073.8
0.122.263.94
0.242.243.96
20160.342.093.87
f0.381.783.66
m0.361.893.691.71262442411.70694220231.82191709341.94740935931.94330326981.93727480441.92960597321.92053444752.03172977072.15322024242.14502539122.25661708432.37799268022.36915188592.481193952.60404110432.59762442992.71206834112.83728808772.83320951132.94958181143.07637771393.073571743.19058296573.26747929453.25431543923.3716922836
a0.371.813.61
m0.371.813.6
j0.381.643.57
J0.391.53.44
A0.390.391.561.563.443.44
0.381.56275948173.4572673938
0.381.5585226183.4575094475
0.511.55581989033.4513654257
0.631.65434426923.5428155576
20170.631.7572255663.6340985826
0.631.74314808043.6047976742
0.631.73043287153.5698837692
0.631.72879247633.5404553146
0.761.71628999813.5056859587
0.881.83600549513.6089155617
0.881.9476206943.7086772324
0.881.95086744573.7037824215
0.881.94272100093.6897904531
0.881.943.6781249408
1.011.93775009463.6782824671
1.132.05970154993.7982054858
20181.132.17279497333.9096735007
f1.132.173.9024623167
m1.132.16148148843.8946570843
a1.132.15653645873.8864317286
m1.252.16201236183.8879222705
j1.382.284.0001260251
j1.382.40256265344.1246204598
a1.382.4093547634.131019626
s1.382.40598541684.1273354098
o1.382.41235621244.1334538967
n1.382.4090517544.1299472604
d1.382.40626092354.1263160226
-
2017 Forecast…The 360 View
Downside Risks• Inventory correction• Global volatility, China, Japan,
Eurozone/Brexit, Russia, MENA• Job growth steps down quickly• Consumer spending slumps• Housing stalls• Monetary policy stumbles• Foreign exchange rates• Investor confidence falls/sell-off
Upside Risks• Ongoing strong job growth• Households unleash pent-up demand• Low energy prices for longer• Consumer/Business confidence surges• Increased business investment • Single-family housing market • Increased gov./defense spending • China/Europe find traction • Risk On!
-
A Taxonomy of Economic Risk Factors…How Do We Push theRisk Analysis into the Unknown?
Unknown Knowns
Standard economic metrics that come with significant lags…net migration, population,
county business patterns
Unknown Unknowns
We don’t see it coming
Both immediate risks and long-term trends
Known Knowns
Standard economic metrics like GDP, unemployment rate, inflation rate, housing
starts …etc
Known Unknowns
We know there is an issue but the data is sketchy…financial engineering, student debt,
disruptive technology, political risk
-
Another Taxonomy of Economic Risk Factors
Stability
Services vs ManufacturingConsumer vs Export
Countercyclical Monetary PolicyFiscal Stabilizers
Volatility
Financial MarketsRest of the WorldCommodity Prices
Disruptive Technology
Sustainable Non-sustainable
Long Term
Short Term
-
What Looks Like It Is Not Sustainable?
“Risk isn’t a word in my vocabulary. It’s my very existence.”- Slash
Monetary PolicyNegative Interest Rates, Quantitative
Easing, Helicopter Money, Currency Devaluation
GeopoliticalThe European Union,
The United Kingdom, China,Japan, The Middle East,
Venezuela, Russia The United StatesHealthcare, Federal Deficit,
Income Inequality, Student DebtPension Funds Commodities
Excess Global Capacity, Oil Inventory Accumulation,
High Oil PricesEnvironmental
-
The Michigan Economy Gained Momentum in 2016
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16
Michigan Total Economic Activity Index(2008=100)
-
Robert A. Dye, Chief Economist
Subscribewww.comerica.com/economics
Follow on Twitter@Comerica_Econ
The Comerica U.S. Economic OutlookA Taxonomy of Economic Risk Factors A Taxonomy of Economic Risk Factors The Heartbeat of the U.S. Economy The Heartbeat of the U.S. Economy The Heartbeat of the U.S. Economy Potential GDP As a Guide to Economic Performance Potential GDP As a Guide to Economic Performance GDP Forecast, Ongoing Moderate ExpansionUnemployment Rate Approaching Lower Bound Upward Pressure on Wages Will ContinueInterest Rate Outlook Clouded by Fed Uncertainty2017 Forecast…The 360 ViewA Taxonomy of Economic Risk Factors…How Do We Push the�Risk Analysis into the Unknown? Another Taxonomy of Economic Risk Factors What Looks Like It Is Not Sustainable? The Michigan Economy Gained Momentum in 2016Slide Number 18