3
Positives and Negatives Everything Cuts Both Ways
Synchronized Global Expansion Asian Debt Overhang
Strong Labor Market Profit Squeeze from Rising Wages Falling Value of Dollar Higher Import Prices
Low Interest Rates Rising Interest Rates
Consumer Confidence Millennials Shut Out of Housing
Strong Business Confidence High Stock Market ValuationsLow Energy Prices Low Energy Prices
Manufacturing Renaissance Auto Sales Cycle
The Trump Bump A Post-Bump Slump
Hurricanes Rebuilding
4
GDP Forecast Ongoing Moderate Expansion Weighing the Trump Bump
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US Real GDP Growth Annualized Percent Change
History Forecast
Sources BEA Comerica Bank
-03 -28 25 16 22 17 26 29 15 23 29
Chart1
History
Forecast
US Real GDP Growth Annualized Percent Change
-27
2
-191
-819
-543
-054
131
393
174
392
273
254
-154
294
084
458
268
188
048
0
009
283
077
312
396
-092
46
521
202
324
274
163
048
058
224
278
0
176
124
0
31
3
31
29
29
26
27
Sheet1
5
October Job Growth Bounced Back After Hurricanes
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
+261k in October U Rate Down to 41 Percent
ForecastPayroll Employment avg monthly diff ths (L)
Unemployment Rate percent (R)
Sources BLS Comerica Bank
Chart1
Forecast
Employment Total nonfarm (Ths SA) for United States
Unemployment rate Total ( SA) for United States
+261k in October U Rate Down to 41 Percent
1821111111111
45
127777777778
5
-7511111111111
82666666667
-505555555556
98333333333
1138888888889
90333333333
260
82666666667
2172222222222
77333333333
1662222222222
66666666667
2317777777778
55666666667
203
49333333333
1818
47
1643
41
Sheet1
Sheet2
6
More Upward Pressure on Wages to Come
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16
Unemployment Rate and Hourly Earnings
Unemployment Rate
Average Hourly Earnings percent change year ago
Source BLS
Chart1
lbrus
AHETPIUSA
Unemployment Rate and Hourly Earnings
54
383
64
359
73
26
73
263
66
256
56
25
56
331
53
354
46
407
43
375
4
362
42
393
57
329
58
312
57
184
53
258
47
327
46
408
5
38
78
372
98
266
91
217
83
14
8
189
66
231
57
201
49
245
49
246
48
239
47
248
45
234
44
233
43
237
44
232
43
232
44
241
42
254
41
23
Sheet1
7
Fed Ponders Inflation
-2-10123456
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Consumer Price Index pchya
Consumer Price Index pchya (L)
Source BLS
Core CPI pchya (L)
Chart1
CPI Urban consumer - All items (Index 1982 to 1984=100 SA) for United States
CPI Urban Consumer - All items less food and energy (Index 1982-84=100 SA) for United States
Consumer Price Index pchya
208
266
429
248
-011
167
262
151
17
098
301
228
165
192
163
163
-02
165
136
222
254
226
238
2
22
189
187
174
165
171
173
17
193
169
223
169
Sheet1
Sheet2
8
Interest Rate Outlook Low Inflation Brings Downside Risk
01234567
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Yield percent
Fed Funds
10-Year Treasury Bond
Sources Federal Reserve Comerica Bank
30-Year FRM