the cloud, the internet of things, and the exaflood

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THE CLOUD, THE INTERNET OF THE CLOUD, THE INTERNET OF THINGS, AND THE EXAFLOOD THINGS, AND THE EXAFLOOD

Michael R. NelsonVisiting Professor, Internet StudiesCommunication, Culture and Technology ProgramGeorgetown [email protected]

GUIRR 23 February 2010

My Background

B.S., geology, CaltechPh.D., geophysics, MIT1988 ‐‐ Congressional Science Fellow4 years as Senator Gore's science advisor4 years as IT policy guru at White House1998‐1999 ‐‐ Technologist at FCC9+ years as IBM’s Director, Internet Tech. Teaching at Georgetown since January, 2008Part of Obama campaign’s tech policy team


In Washington, Words Matter

The right words can:Define an issueKill a projectStir emotionsMobilize people

Examples:Obama: “Change”Estate tax > “Death tax”Strategic Defense Initiative > “Star Wars”


In Washington, Numbers Matter

It helps to have hundreds of pages of data




But to make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”




But to make a point, you need two good, memorable “factoids”

(preferably true)


A personal anecdote is worth a dozen policy papers—especially if other people (and the media) start repeating it.

In Washington, Stories Matter


To share a few key words and concepts about the Internet 2020To share some useful numbersTo tell a few storiesTo share a little historyTo assign additional readings

My Goals Today


PEOPLE

First Word

•Hardware

•Hardware•Software

•Hardware•Software•People

•Hardware•Software•Organizations •People

.

•Software•Organizations •People

•Software•Organizations •People

•Organizations •People

•Organizations •People•Policy


VISION

Second Word


"Where there is no vision, the people perish”Proverbs 29:18

Words from the Bible


"Where there is no vision, the people perish”Proverbs 29:18

(Or at least you waste a lot of time and money.)

Words from the Bible


VISION as Elevator Pitch

We are entering the third phase of the InternetAs profound as the World Wide WebThe next 2‐3 years will define the Next Generation Internet

Standards and business practices are shaping the Net as much—or more—than law and regulation

The Internet revolution is less than 15% completeNumber of usersTotal bandwidthTotal amount of contentNumber of devicesNumber of applications


“CHEAP REVOLUTION”Coined by Rich Karlgaard , Forbes, April 2003Cheap, commodity hardwareOpen source software (e.g. Linux)Cloud computingDo‐it‐yourself tech support

COST SAVINGS OF 90 PERCENT

Vision in a buzz phrase


CLOUD

Third Word


Application Service ProviderGridDistributed ComputingEtc.

Words that Didn’t Work


A fundamentally new approach to computing.

It enables companies and users to use the Internet to almost instantly tap the

data, software, storage, and computing power they need to respond to any customer demand, market opportunity, or competitive threat

What is it?


Read the NIST definitionhttp://csrc.nist.gov/groups/SNS/cloud‐computing/Cloud computing is a model for enabling convenient, on‐demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction. This cloud model promotes availability and is composed of five essential characteristics, three service models, and four deployment models.

What is it? (Part 2)


Examples of Cloud Computing

Academic grids as a prototype of the cloudAmazon, Google, Microsoft building huge data

centers and offering online appsAmazon’s Elastic Compute CloudGmail – “the entry drug for cloud users”Flickr, YouTubeOnline back‐upSalesForce.comAkamai delivers 15‐20 percent of Internet traffic BOINC grids more powerful than supercomputers


Akamai – Visualizing the Internet

http://www.akamai.com/html/technology/visualizing_akamai.html


GAME CHANGER

Fourth Word


Cloud Computing

Why it matters:This is the 3rd phase of the InternetThis is the 3rd phase of COMPUTING

The Third Phase of the Internet

1969 1980 1990 2000 2010

Capability

Phase 1 - Communicating

Phase 2 - Content

Phase 3Collaboration

?


“The Big Switch” by Nicholas Carr


Gartner Says Cloud Computing Will Be As Influential As E‐business

Special Report Examines the Realities and Risks of Cloud Computing (June 26, 2008)

This is a VERY big deal


MANY‐TO‐MANY

Fifth Word


Phase One – Stand Alone Computer

App. Data


Phase Two – The Web

Web sites

DataApp.

BrowserPC

DataData

Data

Data


Phase Three – The Cloud

DataData Data

DataApp.

App. App.


THINGS

Sixth Word


The Internet of Things

Why it matters:100 billion devices, not just 1.4 billion PCs

Impacts?Increased need for ubiquitous wirelessA flood of new data from sensors, etc.New uses for the Cloud


The Cloud + The Internet of Things

DataData Data

DataApp.

App. App.

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Sensors Will Predominate…

•1990 2000 2010 2020•YEAR

•100 M

•1 B

•10 B

•100 B

•Computers

•Internet-connected devices

•Appliances

•Sensors


EXAFLOOD

Seventh word

GUIRR 23 February 2010 •51

Total Amount of Data Connected to The Internet

2001 1 petabyte (1015 bytes)2006 1 exabyte (1018 bytes)2010 1 zettabyte (1021 bytes)

The result of:

More people spending More time using more data‐rich applicationsMore replication and caching of data

GUIRR 23 February 2010 •52

Data, Data Everywhere…Video surveillanceE‐commerceLocation‐dependent servicesCustomized video on‐demandVideo‐conferencingNetworked devicesEmbedded sensorsData mining


Estimating the Exaflood(Swanson and Gilder, 2008)


What’s in the Exaflood?


CROWDSOURCING

Eighth Word


Google mapsNorth Korea satellite photosGoogle Flu TrendsGoogle economic statistics Hal Varian, AAAS annual meeting, Feb. 19

Examples


METADATA

Ninth Word


Automated metadata generationMetadata built into devices

StandardsIncentives?

Metadata from modelsState of the hardwareState of the applications softwareState of the operating software

Harnessing Crowdsourcing

Challenges of Metadata


FLOating Point OperationS per Spatial PointTen VariablesHundred Operations Per Updated VariableOne Thousand FLOPS per Updated Spatial Point

One Dimensional DynamicsFor 1000 Spatial Points Need MEGAFLOP

Two DimensionsFor 1000x1000 Spatial Points Need GIGAFLOP

Three DimensionsFor 1000x1000x1000 Spatial Points Need TERAFLOP

Three Dimensions + Adaptive Mesh RefinementNeed PETAFLOP

The Exaflood of model data(From Larry Smarr, AAAS, February 22, 2010)


TRANSPARENCY

Tenth Word


How will you build trust in the Cloud?How will you improve security?How will you create a market for security and privacy?How to convince people to share more of their personal data?How to avoid the “killer bumper sticker”Will Zuckerberg’s Law continue to apply?

Critical questions

62

1) Privacy Notice

2) Authentication

3) Authorization

4) Data collection

COLLECTION

APPLICATION

5) Use

STORAGE

6) StoreProtect

Minimize

7) Discovery

PARTNER8) Contract

8) Contract

9) Disclose

9) Disclose

AUDIT

10) Track

10) Track10) Track


PREDICTIONS

Eleventh Word


Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide could happen “in the cloud”

BIG, Hairy Audacious Prediction #1


Within 5 years, 80% of all computing and storage done worldwide could happen “in the cloud”

(But it might take 10 years)



Within 5 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors could be connected to the Net



Within 10 years, 100 BILLION devices and sensors will be connected to the Net

Not‐quite‐so‐audacious Prediction #2


TechnicalAgreement and adoption of key standardsIPv6, DNSsec, IPsec, Grid standards

Business practicesCooperation around open standards vs. proprietary lock‐in; open source software

CultureUsers have to learn to “trust the cloud”CIOs and their teams have to adapt to new roles

Policy

Why Not?


POLICY

Last Word


GOVERNMENTS’ FIRST CHALLENGEHow to be an early adopter of new technologies?

(such as Cloud computing, social media, sensors)


GOVERNMENTS’ FIRST CHALLENGEHow to be an early adopter of new technologies ?

(such as Cloud computing, sensors)

To do list:Fix procurementEnsure ubiquitous, Big BroadbandMove to open standards, Avoid lock‐inPromote open source softwareAddress securityChange culture and reorganize


PrivacySearch warrants, wiretapping in the Cloud?

TransparencyOnline copyrightLiability for cloud service providers

Who’s responsible for Illegal activities?

International data flowsCompetition policy

Updating policies for the Cloud and the Internet of Things


The Promise and Peril of Big DataAspen Institute’s Communications and Society Program

Required Reading on Big Data


1. The Clouds Scenario2. The Cloudy Skies Scenario3. The Blue Skies Scenario

Three Possible Futures

The Clouds Scenario

Different, distinct, proprietary cloudsNon‐interoperable standardsThe cable television network business model; bottlenecks and monopolies

The Cloudy Skies Scenario

Distinct cloudsInterconnectedCloud applications aren’t interoperableLittle common middleware (e.g. no single sign‐on)Lots of missed opportunities

Blue Skies Scenario

A “cloud of clouds” like the network of networksTruly interoperable clouds services“Mix and match”Common middlewareSeamlessAlmost infinite opportunities

Sky’s the Limit!!


Conclusions

The Internet Revolution is less than 15% completeThe Internet Revolution will be as disruptive as the printing press, but:Much fasterTotally globalMore unpredictable

When in doubt, empower the user!

the cloud, the internet of things, and the exaflood

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