the bangchak petroleum plc. - listed...
TRANSCRIPT
� Mr. Vichien Usanachote (SEVP-Refinery Business)
� Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong (EVP-Accounting &Finance)
� Mr. Yodphot Wongrukmit (EVP-Mareting Business)
Analyst Meeting for 1Q10 performance • May 25, 2010
The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.
2
Disclaimer
The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion
purposes only and only for the use of the recipient, and may be subject to completion or
amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise provided
herein, this document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in
any transaction. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that The
Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP
makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or
completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical
analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the
matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective
assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce
differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be
viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The
recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters
contained herein.
3
Performance 1Q10
Contents
What’s moving on 2010
Oil price and situation outlook
Other events and activities
Marketing business hilight
Performance Performance 11QQ1010
5
1Q10 highlight performance - integration
1Q09 1Q10
3.96 5.15
1 2
Market GRM ($/Bbl)
2.54 0.39
1 2
FO Premium($/Bbl)
4.99
0.10
1 2
GRM Hedging ($/Bbl)
-0.68
0.57
Stock G (L) ($/Bbl)
1Q09 1Q10
10.81
6.21
2.56
1.97
Accounting GIM($/Bbl)
Contribution MKM
Total GRM
3.58 2.46
1 2
MKM ($/Bbl)
13.37
8.18
1Q09 1Q10
6
1Q10 performance is outperform the market
(Unit : Million Baht) 1Q10 1Q09 ���� Change%
Sale Revenue 33,224 21,319 +55.8%
EBITDA 1,532 3,045 -49.7%
Refinery business 1,146 2,474 -53.7%
Marketing business 386 571 -32.4%
Depreciation & Amortization (449) (217)
Other FX and Impairment 148 (440)
Financial Cost (199) (141)
Pre-tax Profit 1,032 2,247 -54.1%
Tax (280) (666)
Net Profit 752 1,581 -52.4%
EPS 0.64 1.41
Inventory Gain/(Loss) 145 (179) +181.0%
Adjusted EBITDA 1,387 3,224 -57.0%
Refinery business 1,001 2,653 -62.3%
Marketing business 386 571 -32.4%
�Sales increased due to an
increasing in the World oil
price
�Capacity utilization
increased from 81.6 KBD to
86.3 KBD
�EBITDA from Refinery
business dropped from oil
hedging transaction by �
1,282 million
�EBITDA from Marketing
business dropped as oil
price movement but market
share increased
�Depreciation & financial
cost increased in
accordance with COD of PQI
project
7
Balance sheets - Company only
Assets
Inventories
Total Assets
Short Term Loan + Due 1 yr
Liabilities
Shareholders� Equity
Common Share
Premium on Share Capital
Revalue Asset
PPE
Leasehold Right
Total Liabilities & Equity
Other Non-Current Assets Retain Earning
Long Term Loan
Other Non Liabilities
Cash
Other Current Assets
Trade Accounts Receivable
Current Assets
Unit: Million Baht
Total Equity
Total Liabilities
Other Liabilities
Trade Accounts Payable
1,687
27,069
1,170
8,369
4,477
52,901
11,816
25,832
13,568
880
4,911
6,023
Investments in Subsidiary
Mar 31,2010 Dec 31,2009 Mar 31,2010 Dec 31,2009
Book Value per share 22.65 22.08
13,103
54,256
27,317
1,003
1,172
4,111
1,269
6,083
24,566
198
13,625
52,901
27,711
1,025
1,187
1,711
1,943
5,501
22,780
198
887
27,765
1,170
8,369
4,384
54,256
12,568
26,491
13,569
831
4,987
7,491
8
Stock performance and key indicators
*EBITDA excluded inventory effect for 12 months backward
FINANCIAL POSITION RATIO
Current Ratio times 1.84
AR Day days 15.69
DSCR* (net CAPEX) times 5.96
D/E Ratio times 0.55
Net debt to EBITDA* times 1.43
Book Value per Share (BV) Baht 22.65
(As at 31 Mar 10)
VALUATION FIGURES
Share Price (12 month-high) Baht 15.90
Share Price (12 month-low) Baht 9.20
Share Price (12 month-average) Baht 14.00
Share Price (Closing) Baht 14.50
EV M.Baht 27,307
EV to EBITDA** times 3.77
P/E** times 5.22
P/BV times 0.64
(As at 31 Mar 10)
*Share price referred “BCP”
**EBITDA & earning excluded inventory effect for 12 months backward
PROFIT RETURN RATIO
Net Profit Margin % 2.26
Earning per Share Baht 0.64
Return on Equity-ROE % 2.99
Return on Assets-ROA % 1.32
(For 1Q10)
Share price (1 Jan 2010 - 13 May 2010)
BCP -6.04%BCP-DR1 -7.33%SET +4.36%
Energy +3.19%
� Fuel oil premium on
export market slowed
down
� 1Q10 MOP FO/DB
= -3.0 $/Bbl, premium
2.4 $/Bbl
� 1Q09 MOP FO/DB
= -6.7 $/Bbl, premium
8.9 $/Bbl
� Hedging transaction
limited due to market
condition, 7% (1Q10)
from 54% (1Q09) on
production run
� Marketing margin was
lower but still in satisfied
level
9
Factors affect 1Q10 performance
� Capacity utilization increased to 86.3 KBD
(1Q10) from 81.6 KBD (1Q09)
� Gasoline crack spread increased
by strong demand in China and
refineries unplanned shutdown
in ASEAN
� FO crack spread improved by
demand for bunker fuel and
lower arbitrage from Europe
� Sales volume through Marketing
Business increased
�69.0 KBD or 329 million litres per month (1Q10)
�58.3 KBD or 278 million litres per month (1Q09)
P.10
P.11
-
20
40
60
80
100
J F M A M J J A S O N D
(20)
(15)
(10)
(5)
-
5
J F M A M J J A S O N D-
5
10
15
20
J F M A M J J A S O N D
-
5
10
15
20
25
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Singapore’s oil price movement
10
USD/BblY2009
Y2010
FO/Dubai
USD/Bbl USD/Bbl
USD/Bbl
AVG.2Q09=7.07
AVG.2Q09 =(5.95)
AVG.1Q09=8.81
AVG.1Q10=8.96
AVG.1Q09 =(6.69)
AVG.1Q10=(3.04)
AVG.3Q09=68.02
AVG.2Q09=59.22
AVG.1Q09=44.28
AVG.1Q10=75.78
Dubai
AVG.3Q09=6.88
GO/Dubai
AVG.3Q09 =(3.11)
AVG.FY09=61.82
Outlook
2Q10/1Q10
AVG.FY09=7.24Outlook
2Q10/1Q10
AVG.FY09 =(5.06)
⊳
95/Dubai
AVG.FY09 =8.55
AVG.2Q09 =9.58AVG.1Q09 =10.69
AVG.1Q10=12.52
AVG.3Q09 =8.84
Outlook
2Q10/1Q10
Outlook
2Q10/1Q10
- 2009 2010 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
Hedged volume
(Mbbl)15.71 3.28 0.56 0.81 1.04 0.89
Production run
(Mbbl)28.91 33.53 7.77 7.83 8.74 9.20
Hedged portion
(%)54% 10% 7% 10% 12% 10%
Realization (M$) 167.66 0.74 0.74 N/A N/A N/A
34%17%
35%50%
11% 12%
17% 21%
3%
Hydroskimming PQI 2010
LPG
Mogas
JET
Diesel
Fuel Oil
0
20
40
60
80
100
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Y2009
Y2010 (Est.)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7 FO Premium
Market GRM
11
Refinery BU : 2010 pure performance driven by PQIB
ase
GR
M (
$/B
bl)
Pro
du
ctio
n Y
ield
(%
)
Spread hedging position for Y2010
Cru
de
In
take
(K
BD
)
⊳
Y2010 (Actual)
Y2009
Y2009
FO Premium Y2010
Market GRM Y2010
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
�
0
20
40
60
80
100
1
26
51
76
10
1
12
6
15
1
17
6
20
1
22
6
25
1
27
6
30
1
32
6
35
1
37
6
40
1
42
6
45
1
47
6
50
1
52
6
55
1
57
6
1Q10 Total GRM ($/Bbl)
+0.10
+5.54
+0.57
• Capacity utilization increased• Valuable product yield increased• Optimized FO by exporting as
premium grade
• 7% hedged production
• Follow World oil price trend
Dubai crude price ($/Bbl)
4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10
12
Refinery BU : performance is still in good shape 1Q10 1Q09
M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL
Base GRM 1,421 5.54 1,702 6.50
• Market GRM 1,322 5.15 1,037 3.96
• FO Premium 99 0.39 665 2.54
GRM Hedging 25 0.10 1,307 4.99
Inventory Gain/(Loss) 145 0.57 (1,103) (4.21)
Write Down (LCM) 0 0.00 924 3.53
Total GRM 3,012 6.21 4,532 10.81
Other Income 24 0.09 12 0.05
Operating Expenses (469) (1.83) (384) (1.47)
EBITDA 2,567 4.47 4,160 9.39
Adjusted EBITDA 2,422 3.90 4,339 10.07
Key factors
Crude Run (KBD) 86.3 81.6
Exchange rate (฿/$) 33.04 35.68
DB ($/Bbl) 75.78 44.28
95/DB ($/Bbl) 12.52 10.69
GO/DB ($/Bbl) 8.96 8.81
FO/DB ($/Bbl) -3.04 -6.69
FO premium ($/Bbl) 2.4 8.9
-1
0
1
2
3
4
13
Marketing BU : MKM was lower but still in satisfied level
HSD
Mark
eting M
arg
in (Bt.
/L)
ULR
91 M
ark
eting M
arg
in (Bt.
/L)
Indicative total marketing margin by product
(included dealers margin)1Q10 1Q09
M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L
Net Retail Margin 438 0.73 572 0.97
Net Industrial Margin 69 0.18 96 0.40
Total MKM 507 0.51 668 0.80
Other Income 202 0.20 194 0.23
Operating Expenses (323) (0.33) (294) (0.35)
EBITDA 386 0.39 568 0.68
Sale Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo
o Retail 41.8 199 41.3 197
o Industrial 27.2 130 17.0 81
Total Sale Volume 69.0 329 58.3 278
2.48 $/bbl 3.58 $/bbl
Year 2010 Year 2009
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Year 2010 Year 2009
14
Oil Price and Situation Outlook Oil Price and Situation Outlook
5.5
3.2
1.3
4.2 4.3
2.60.2
-2.9
3.02.03.0
0.8
-3.9
0.71.5
2.7
-1.4
-5.8
1.5 1.8
12.7
9.38.9
9.89.5
9.1
7.35.9
7.57.7
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E
World
US
EU
Japan
China
India
15
2010 2010 World GDP growth expectation was revised up from World GDP growth expectation was revised up from 33..1 1 to to 44..2 2 %%YoYYoY as positive as positive
economic indicators denoted clearer signs of recovery. economic indicators denoted clearer signs of recovery.
Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &
refining margins
World GDP Growth Outlook (%World GDP Growth Outlook (%YoYYoY))World GDP Growth Outlook (%World GDP Growth Outlook (%YoYYoY))
Source : IMF World Economic Outlook , Apr 2010
Macroeconomics Outlook : Macroeconomics Outlook : East Has Emerged Faster than West Macroeconomics Outlook : Macroeconomics Outlook : East Has Emerged Faster than West
16
Highlight of Positive SignsHighlight of Positive SignsHighlight of Positive SignsHighlight of Positive SignsMacroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watch
Crack spreads &
refining margins
US Consumer Confidence vs. Retail SalesUS Consumer Confidence vs. Retail SalesUS Consumer Confidence vs. Retail SalesUS Consumer Confidence vs. Retail Sales Euro zone: Consumer Sentiment vs. Retail SalesEuro zone: Consumer Sentiment vs. Retail SalesEuro zone: Consumer Sentiment vs. Retail SalesEuro zone: Consumer Sentiment vs. Retail Sales
US Sales vs.GDPUS Sales vs.GDPUS Sales vs.GDPUS Sales vs.GDP China Nominal Retail SalesChina Nominal Retail SalesChina Nominal Retail SalesChina Nominal Retail Sales
Retail sales in China were Retail sales in China were
boosted by subsidiesboosted by subsidiesRetail sales in US is growing at Retail sales in US is growing at
a more modest pacea more modest pace
17
$/BBL
J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2009 2010
•Positive Economic Indicator in Key Areas•Weak Greenback Stoked up Risk Appetite
•Strong Economic Data and Oil Demand Growth from China & India
•Colder-than-usual Winter Temperature
in US Europe and North Asia
Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &
refining margins
Despite clearer sign of economic recovery, crude oil prices turned in mixed Despite clearer sign of economic recovery, crude oil prices turned in mixed
performance as investors are still cautious on Greece debt bailout. performance as investors are still cautious on Greece debt bailout.
•Strong 1Q10 earnings•EU leaders agreed on Greece
rescue package
Global Oil Market Global Oil Market –– Mixed Performance of Crude Prices in 1Q10 Global Oil Market Global Oil Market –– Mixed Performance of Crude Prices in 1Q10
1Q10 Highlight
Bullish Bearish
• Colder-than-usual in Europe US
and North Asia and snow storm in
US
• Positive signs of economic
recovery
• Tightening monetary policy
in China, India and Australia
• Greece debt concern
Dubai
Brent
WTI
18
Year MBD %YoY
2008 -0.25 -0.3%
2009 -1.26 -1.5%
2010 1.22 1.4%
North America
Latin AmericaAfrica
Middle East
80
85
90
86.084.7
86.0
2008
2009
2010
FSU
Europe
Asia-1252 -825
-13
2008 2009 2010
-51-698
-105
226 80 14099 82 106
457 174 343
71
-209
24
197 201 717
Mainly from Transportation Fuel Demand Growth
Global Oil Demand 2008-2010 (MBD)
Global Oil Demand 2008-2010 (MBD)
Global Demand Growth 2008-2010
Global Demand Growth 2008-2010
Source : JBC
Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Upward Revision of 2010 Oil DemandGlobal Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Upward Revision of 2010 Oil Demand
Yearly demand rise will be driven by non OECD (+Yearly demand rise will be driven by non OECD (+22..0606MBD), mainly from China and Middle East, MBD), mainly from China and Middle East,
while OECD countries will see their yearwhile OECD countries will see their year--onon--year consumption declining year consumption declining
19We expect We expect 2010 2010 oil demand growth to be driven by, namely transportation and petrochemical sectors.oil demand growth to be driven by, namely transportation and petrochemical sectors.
Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &
refining margins
Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Upward Revision of 2010 Oil DemandGlobal Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Upward Revision of 2010 Oil Demand
20092009--2010 2010 Regional Product Demand Growth (KBD)Regional Product Demand Growth (KBD)20092009--2010 2010 Regional Product Demand Growth (KBD)Regional Product Demand Growth (KBD)
20
Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Non-OPEC Supply and OPEC NGLs Rises This Year Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Non-OPEC Supply and OPEC NGLs Rises This Year
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
80.0
82.0
84.0
86.0
88.0
90.0
47
49
51
53
55
57
59
2007 2008 2009 2010
OPEC NGLs Non-OPEC Supply World Demand
World Oil Balance World Oil Balance 20072007--2010 2010 (MBD)(MBD)World Oil Balance World Oil Balance 20072007--2010 2010 (MBD)(MBD) Call on OPEC Crude Call on OPEC Crude 20072007--2010 2010 (MBD)(MBD)Call on OPEC Crude Call on OPEC Crude 20072007--2010 2010 (MBD)(MBD)
Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &
refining margins
•• We see NonWe see Non--OPEC supply increasing by OPEC supply increasing by 500 500 KBD this year and the uptick in nonKBD this year and the uptick in non--OPEC supply is led OPEC supply is led
by Brazil, US, Kazakhstan and Columbia.by Brazil, US, Kazakhstan and Columbia.
•• World oil demand is still mainly balanced by CallWorld oil demand is still mainly balanced by Call--on OPEC.on OPEC.
27.5
28.0
28.5
29.0
29.5
30.0
30.5
31.0
31.5
32.0
2007 2008 2009 2010
OPEC Production Call on OPEC Crude
21
Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : OPEC Still Injects Extra Barrels into the Market Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : OPEC Still Injects Extra Barrels into the Market
Saudi Arabia Kuwait UAE Nigeria Others
Spare Production Capacity (MBD)Spare Production Capacity (MBD)Spare Production Capacity (MBD)Spare Production Capacity (MBD)
Saudi Arabia 3.8
Others 1.3
Nigeria 0.6
UAE 0.4
Kuwait 0.4
Idle production capacity is totally around Idle production capacity is totally around 6 6 MBD at the moment MBD at the moment
Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &
refining margins
OPEC Crude Oil Production and Capacity (MBD)OPEC Crude Oil Production and Capacity (MBD)OPEC Crude Oil Production and Capacity (MBD)OPEC Crude Oil Production and Capacity (MBD)
US Crude Inventories (MB)US Crude Inventories (MB)US Crude Inventories (MB)US Crude Inventories (MB)
Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Fundamentals Improved but Stock Was Built Ahead Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Fundamentals Improved but Stock Was Built Ahead
US stocks currently remain high above US stocks currently remain high above 55--year average, while distillate stock have steadily year average, while distillate stock have steadily
decline since the start of the year. decline since the start of the year.
Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &
refining margins
US Gasoline Inventories (MB)US Gasoline Inventories (MB)US Gasoline Inventories (MB)US Gasoline Inventories (MB)
US Total Distillate Inventories (MB)US Total Distillate Inventories (MB)US Total Distillate Inventories (MB)US Total Distillate Inventories (MB) US Total Commercial Inventories (MB)US Total Commercial Inventories (MB)US Total Commercial Inventories (MB)US Total Commercial Inventories (MB)
23
Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : More additions, More closuresGlobal Oil Market : Global Oil Market : More additions, More closures
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Asia Europe North America FSU Middle East Africa
Additional Closure
• Closures only refer to announced shutdowns
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
Pakistan
India
China
•• Only Only 800 800 KBD of global net capacity KBD of global net capacity
addition is expected to come on stream addition is expected to come on stream
in in 2010 2010 which is less lower than which is less lower than 22..5 5
MBD addition in MBD addition in 20092009..
•• Additional refining capacity is mainly Additional refining capacity is mainly
from China and India.from China and India.
2010 2010 Refinery Capacity Additions and Closures (KBD)Refinery Capacity Additions and Closures (KBD)2010 2010 Refinery Capacity Additions and Closures (KBD)Refinery Capacity Additions and Closures (KBD)
Source : JBC, FACTS
2010 2010 Asian Refinery Capacity Additions (KBD)Asian Refinery Capacity Additions (KBD)2010 2010 Asian Refinery Capacity Additions (KBD)Asian Refinery Capacity Additions (KBD)
20072007--2009 2009 Refinery Capacity Net Additions (KBD)Refinery Capacity Net Additions (KBD)20072007--2009 2009 Refinery Capacity Net Additions (KBD)Refinery Capacity Net Additions (KBD)
Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &
refining margins
24
Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : More than Just FundamentalGlobal Oil Market : Global Oil Market : More than Just Fundamental
NYMEX WTI vs. US Dollar Index NYMEX WTI vs. US Dollar Index NYMEX WTI vs. US Dollar Index NYMEX WTI vs. US Dollar Index
Mixed signal of Eurozone fiscal’s health Mixed signal of Eurozone fiscal’s health
encouraged funds to move from equity & oil encouraged funds to move from equity & oil
market to “safe heaven USD”market to “safe heaven USD”
Stronger greenback reduced the appeal of Stronger greenback reduced the appeal of
dollardollar--priced asset as an alternative investmentpriced asset as an alternative investment
NYMEX WTI vs. S&P NYMEX WTI vs. S&P 500500NYMEX WTI vs. S&P NYMEX WTI vs. S&P 500500
Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &
refining margins
S&P 500
WTI
WTI
USDX
25
Eurozone’s
Fiscal Health
US Reaction
against Iran
Nuclear Project
Nigerian
Political
Tension
Global Monetary
Policy
Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &
refining margins
Various Factors to Keep An Eye OnVarious Factors to Keep An Eye OnVarious Factors to Keep An Eye OnVarious Factors to Keep An Eye On
26
Crack Spread & Refining Margin OutlookCrack Spread & Refining Margin OutlookCrack Spread & Refining Margin OutlookCrack Spread & Refining Margin Outlook
Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &
refining margins
Source : JBC
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
พ.ค.-10 มิ.ย.-10 ก.ค.-10 ส.ค.-10 ก.ย.-10 ต.ค.-10 พ.ย.-10 ธ.ค.-10
Estimated Cracked Dubai Margin UNL95-Dub Kero-Dub Gasoil 0.5%S-Dub HSFO 180cst -Dub
Refining Margin Outlook
Crack Spread Outlook
20102010--2011 2011 Singapore Cracked Margin Outlook ($/BBL)Singapore Cracked Margin Outlook ($/BBL)20102010--2011 2011 Singapore Cracked Margin Outlook ($/BBL)Singapore Cracked Margin Outlook ($/BBL)
We estimate Singapore crack margin will be sustainable We estimate Singapore crack margin will be sustainable
at at 55--6 6 $/BBL throughout the year. $/BBL throughout the year.
Gasoline cracks are expected to remain supported by
increase driving and lower Chinese export in May and June
Jet cracks are expected to recover
due to peak travell ing season in 4Q
Fuel oil crack pattern may stay tepid,
mirroring the steady rise of benchmark crude
Gasoil cracks are expected to be
stronger in 4Q due to winter demand