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Mr. VichienUsanachote (SEVP-Refinery Business) Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong (EVP-Accounting &Finance) Mr. Yodphot Wongrukmit (EVP-Mareting Business) Analyst Meeting for 1Q10 performance • May 25, 2010 The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.

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Page 1: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

� Mr. Vichien Usanachote (SEVP-Refinery Business)

� Mr. Surachai Kositsareewong (EVP-Accounting &Finance)

� Mr. Yodphot Wongrukmit (EVP-Mareting Business)

Analyst Meeting for 1Q10 performance • May 25, 2010

The Bangchak Petroleum Plc.

Page 2: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

2

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is being furnished on a confidential basis for discussion

purposes only and only for the use of the recipient, and may be subject to completion or

amendment through the delivery of additional documentation. Except as otherwise provided

herein, this document does not constitute an offer to sell or purchase any security or engage in

any transaction. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources that The

Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited (“BCP”) considers to be reliable; however, BCP

makes no representation as to, and accepts no responsibility or liability for, the accuracy or

completeness of the information contained herein. Any projections, valuations and statistical

analyses contained herein have been provided to assist the recipient in the evaluation of the

matters described herein; such projections, valuations and analyses may be based on subjective

assessments and assumptions and may utilize one among alternative methodologies that produce

differing results; accordingly, such projections, valuations and statistical analyses are not to be

viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future events. The

recipient should make an independent evaluation and judgment with respect to the matters

contained herein.

Page 3: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

3

Performance 1Q10

Contents

What’s moving on 2010

Oil price and situation outlook

Other events and activities

Marketing business hilight

Page 4: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

Performance Performance 11QQ1010

Page 5: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

5

1Q10 highlight performance - integration

1Q09 1Q10

3.96 5.15

1 2

Market GRM ($/Bbl)

2.54 0.39

1 2

FO Premium($/Bbl)

4.99

0.10

1 2

GRM Hedging ($/Bbl)

-0.68

0.57

Stock G (L) ($/Bbl)

1Q09 1Q10

10.81

6.21

2.56

1.97

Accounting GIM($/Bbl)

Contribution MKM

Total GRM

3.58 2.46

1 2

MKM ($/Bbl)

13.37

8.18

1Q09 1Q10

Page 6: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

6

1Q10 performance is outperform the market

(Unit : Million Baht) 1Q10 1Q09 ���� Change%

Sale Revenue 33,224 21,319 +55.8%

EBITDA 1,532 3,045 -49.7%

Refinery business 1,146 2,474 -53.7%

Marketing business 386 571 -32.4%

Depreciation & Amortization (449) (217)

Other FX and Impairment 148 (440)

Financial Cost (199) (141)

Pre-tax Profit 1,032 2,247 -54.1%

Tax (280) (666)

Net Profit 752 1,581 -52.4%

EPS 0.64 1.41

Inventory Gain/(Loss) 145 (179) +181.0%

Adjusted EBITDA 1,387 3,224 -57.0%

Refinery business 1,001 2,653 -62.3%

Marketing business 386 571 -32.4%

�Sales increased due to an

increasing in the World oil

price

�Capacity utilization

increased from 81.6 KBD to

86.3 KBD

�EBITDA from Refinery

business dropped from oil

hedging transaction by �

1,282 million

�EBITDA from Marketing

business dropped as oil

price movement but market

share increased

�Depreciation & financial

cost increased in

accordance with COD of PQI

project

Page 7: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

7

Balance sheets - Company only

Assets

Inventories

Total Assets

Short Term Loan + Due 1 yr

Liabilities

Shareholders� Equity

Common Share

Premium on Share Capital

Revalue Asset

PPE

Leasehold Right

Total Liabilities & Equity

Other Non-Current Assets Retain Earning

Long Term Loan

Other Non Liabilities

Cash

Other Current Assets

Trade Accounts Receivable

Current Assets

Unit: Million Baht

Total Equity

Total Liabilities

Other Liabilities

Trade Accounts Payable

1,687

27,069

1,170

8,369

4,477

52,901

11,816

25,832

13,568

880

4,911

6,023

Investments in Subsidiary

Mar 31,2010 Dec 31,2009 Mar 31,2010 Dec 31,2009

Book Value per share 22.65 22.08

13,103

54,256

27,317

1,003

1,172

4,111

1,269

6,083

24,566

198

13,625

52,901

27,711

1,025

1,187

1,711

1,943

5,501

22,780

198

887

27,765

1,170

8,369

4,384

54,256

12,568

26,491

13,569

831

4,987

7,491

Page 8: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

8

Stock performance and key indicators

*EBITDA excluded inventory effect for 12 months backward

FINANCIAL POSITION RATIO

Current Ratio times 1.84

AR Day days 15.69

DSCR* (net CAPEX) times 5.96

D/E Ratio times 0.55

Net debt to EBITDA* times 1.43

Book Value per Share (BV) Baht 22.65

(As at 31 Mar 10)

VALUATION FIGURES

Share Price (12 month-high) Baht 15.90

Share Price (12 month-low) Baht 9.20

Share Price (12 month-average) Baht 14.00

Share Price (Closing) Baht 14.50

EV M.Baht 27,307

EV to EBITDA** times 3.77

P/E** times 5.22

P/BV times 0.64

(As at 31 Mar 10)

*Share price referred “BCP”

**EBITDA & earning excluded inventory effect for 12 months backward

PROFIT RETURN RATIO

Net Profit Margin % 2.26

Earning per Share Baht 0.64

Return on Equity-ROE % 2.99

Return on Assets-ROA % 1.32

(For 1Q10)

Share price (1 Jan 2010 - 13 May 2010)

BCP -6.04%BCP-DR1 -7.33%SET +4.36%

Energy +3.19%

Page 9: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

� Fuel oil premium on

export market slowed

down

� 1Q10 MOP FO/DB

= -3.0 $/Bbl, premium

2.4 $/Bbl

� 1Q09 MOP FO/DB

= -6.7 $/Bbl, premium

8.9 $/Bbl

� Hedging transaction

limited due to market

condition, 7% (1Q10)

from 54% (1Q09) on

production run

� Marketing margin was

lower but still in satisfied

level

9

Factors affect 1Q10 performance

� Capacity utilization increased to 86.3 KBD

(1Q10) from 81.6 KBD (1Q09)

� Gasoline crack spread increased

by strong demand in China and

refineries unplanned shutdown

in ASEAN

� FO crack spread improved by

demand for bunker fuel and

lower arbitrage from Europe

� Sales volume through Marketing

Business increased

�69.0 KBD or 329 million litres per month (1Q10)

�58.3 KBD or 278 million litres per month (1Q09)

P.10

P.11

Page 10: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

-

20

40

60

80

100

J F M A M J J A S O N D

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

-

5

J F M A M J J A S O N D-

5

10

15

20

J F M A M J J A S O N D

-

5

10

15

20

25

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Singapore’s oil price movement

10

USD/BblY2009

Y2010

FO/Dubai

USD/Bbl USD/Bbl

USD/Bbl

AVG.2Q09=7.07

AVG.2Q09 =(5.95)

AVG.1Q09=8.81

AVG.1Q10=8.96

AVG.1Q09 =(6.69)

AVG.1Q10=(3.04)

AVG.3Q09=68.02

AVG.2Q09=59.22

AVG.1Q09=44.28

AVG.1Q10=75.78

Dubai

AVG.3Q09=6.88

GO/Dubai

AVG.3Q09 =(3.11)

AVG.FY09=61.82

Outlook

2Q10/1Q10

AVG.FY09=7.24Outlook

2Q10/1Q10

AVG.FY09 =(5.06)

95/Dubai

AVG.FY09 =8.55

AVG.2Q09 =9.58AVG.1Q09 =10.69

AVG.1Q10=12.52

AVG.3Q09 =8.84

Outlook

2Q10/1Q10

Outlook

2Q10/1Q10

Page 11: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

- 2009 2010 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10

Hedged volume

(Mbbl)15.71 3.28 0.56 0.81 1.04 0.89

Production run

(Mbbl)28.91 33.53 7.77 7.83 8.74 9.20

Hedged portion

(%)54% 10% 7% 10% 12% 10%

Realization (M$) 167.66 0.74 0.74 N/A N/A N/A

34%17%

35%50%

11% 12%

17% 21%

3%

Hydroskimming PQI 2010

LPG

Mogas

JET

Diesel

Fuel Oil

0

20

40

60

80

100

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Y2009

Y2010 (Est.)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7 FO Premium

Market GRM

11

Refinery BU : 2010 pure performance driven by PQIB

ase

GR

M (

$/B

bl)

Pro

du

ctio

n Y

ield

(%

)

Spread hedging position for Y2010

Cru

de

In

take

(K

BD

)

Y2010 (Actual)

Y2009

Y2009

FO Premium Y2010

Market GRM Y2010

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

Page 12: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

0

20

40

60

80

100

1

26

51

76

10

1

12

6

15

1

17

6

20

1

22

6

25

1

27

6

30

1

32

6

35

1

37

6

40

1

42

6

45

1

47

6

50

1

52

6

55

1

57

6

1Q10 Total GRM ($/Bbl)

+0.10

+5.54

+0.57

• Capacity utilization increased• Valuable product yield increased• Optimized FO by exporting as

premium grade

• 7% hedged production

• Follow World oil price trend

Dubai crude price ($/Bbl)

4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10

12

Refinery BU : performance is still in good shape 1Q10 1Q09

M.Baht $/BBL M.Baht $/BBL

Base GRM 1,421 5.54 1,702 6.50

• Market GRM 1,322 5.15 1,037 3.96

• FO Premium 99 0.39 665 2.54

GRM Hedging 25 0.10 1,307 4.99

Inventory Gain/(Loss) 145 0.57 (1,103) (4.21)

Write Down (LCM) 0 0.00 924 3.53

Total GRM 3,012 6.21 4,532 10.81

Other Income 24 0.09 12 0.05

Operating Expenses (469) (1.83) (384) (1.47)

EBITDA 2,567 4.47 4,160 9.39

Adjusted EBITDA 2,422 3.90 4,339 10.07

Key factors

Crude Run (KBD) 86.3 81.6

Exchange rate (฿/$) 33.04 35.68

DB ($/Bbl) 75.78 44.28

95/DB ($/Bbl) 12.52 10.69

GO/DB ($/Bbl) 8.96 8.81

FO/DB ($/Bbl) -3.04 -6.69

FO premium ($/Bbl) 2.4 8.9

Page 13: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

-1

0

1

2

3

4

13

Marketing BU : MKM was lower but still in satisfied level

HSD

Mark

eting M

arg

in (Bt.

/L)

ULR

91 M

ark

eting M

arg

in (Bt.

/L)

Indicative total marketing margin by product

(included dealers margin)1Q10 1Q09

M.Baht ฿/L M.Baht ฿/L

Net Retail Margin 438 0.73 572 0.97

Net Industrial Margin 69 0.18 96 0.40

Total MKM 507 0.51 668 0.80

Other Income 202 0.20 194 0.23

Operating Expenses (323) (0.33) (294) (0.35)

EBITDA 386 0.39 568 0.68

Sale Volume KBD ML/Mo KBD ML/Mo

o Retail 41.8 199 41.3 197

o Industrial 27.2 130 17.0 81

Total Sale Volume 69.0 329 58.3 278

2.48 $/bbl 3.58 $/bbl

Year 2010 Year 2009

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Year 2010 Year 2009

Page 14: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

14

Oil Price and Situation Outlook Oil Price and Situation Outlook

Page 15: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

5.5

3.2

1.3

4.2 4.3

2.60.2

-2.9

3.02.03.0

0.8

-3.9

0.71.5

2.7

-1.4

-5.8

1.5 1.8

12.7

9.38.9

9.89.5

9.1

7.35.9

7.57.7

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2007 2008 2009 2010E 2011E

World

US

EU

Japan

China

India

15

2010 2010 World GDP growth expectation was revised up from World GDP growth expectation was revised up from 33..1 1 to to 44..2 2 %%YoYYoY as positive as positive

economic indicators denoted clearer signs of recovery. economic indicators denoted clearer signs of recovery.

Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &

refining margins

World GDP Growth Outlook (%World GDP Growth Outlook (%YoYYoY))World GDP Growth Outlook (%World GDP Growth Outlook (%YoYYoY))

Source : IMF World Economic Outlook , Apr 2010

Macroeconomics Outlook : Macroeconomics Outlook : East Has Emerged Faster than West Macroeconomics Outlook : Macroeconomics Outlook : East Has Emerged Faster than West

Page 16: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

16

Highlight of Positive SignsHighlight of Positive SignsHighlight of Positive SignsHighlight of Positive SignsMacroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watch

Crack spreads &

refining margins

US Consumer Confidence vs. Retail SalesUS Consumer Confidence vs. Retail SalesUS Consumer Confidence vs. Retail SalesUS Consumer Confidence vs. Retail Sales Euro zone: Consumer Sentiment vs. Retail SalesEuro zone: Consumer Sentiment vs. Retail SalesEuro zone: Consumer Sentiment vs. Retail SalesEuro zone: Consumer Sentiment vs. Retail Sales

US Sales vs.GDPUS Sales vs.GDPUS Sales vs.GDPUS Sales vs.GDP China Nominal Retail SalesChina Nominal Retail SalesChina Nominal Retail SalesChina Nominal Retail Sales

Retail sales in China were Retail sales in China were

boosted by subsidiesboosted by subsidiesRetail sales in US is growing at Retail sales in US is growing at

a more modest pacea more modest pace

Page 17: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

17

$/BBL

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

2009 2010

•Positive Economic Indicator in Key Areas•Weak Greenback Stoked up Risk Appetite

•Strong Economic Data and Oil Demand Growth from China & India

•Colder-than-usual Winter Temperature

in US Europe and North Asia

Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &

refining margins

Despite clearer sign of economic recovery, crude oil prices turned in mixed Despite clearer sign of economic recovery, crude oil prices turned in mixed

performance as investors are still cautious on Greece debt bailout. performance as investors are still cautious on Greece debt bailout.

•Strong 1Q10 earnings•EU leaders agreed on Greece

rescue package

Global Oil Market Global Oil Market –– Mixed Performance of Crude Prices in 1Q10 Global Oil Market Global Oil Market –– Mixed Performance of Crude Prices in 1Q10

1Q10 Highlight

Bullish Bearish

• Colder-than-usual in Europe US

and North Asia and snow storm in

US

• Positive signs of economic

recovery

• Tightening monetary policy

in China, India and Australia

• Greece debt concern

Dubai

Brent

WTI

Page 18: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

18

Year MBD %YoY

2008 -0.25 -0.3%

2009 -1.26 -1.5%

2010 1.22 1.4%

North America

Latin AmericaAfrica

Middle East

80

85

90

86.084.7

86.0

2008

2009

2010

FSU

Europe

Asia-1252 -825

-13

2008 2009 2010

-51-698

-105

226 80 14099 82 106

457 174 343

71

-209

24

197 201 717

Mainly from Transportation Fuel Demand Growth

Global Oil Demand 2008-2010 (MBD)

Global Oil Demand 2008-2010 (MBD)

Global Demand Growth 2008-2010

Global Demand Growth 2008-2010

Source : JBC

Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Upward Revision of 2010 Oil DemandGlobal Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Upward Revision of 2010 Oil Demand

Yearly demand rise will be driven by non OECD (+Yearly demand rise will be driven by non OECD (+22..0606MBD), mainly from China and Middle East, MBD), mainly from China and Middle East,

while OECD countries will see their yearwhile OECD countries will see their year--onon--year consumption declining year consumption declining

Page 19: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

19We expect We expect 2010 2010 oil demand growth to be driven by, namely transportation and petrochemical sectors.oil demand growth to be driven by, namely transportation and petrochemical sectors.

Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &

refining margins

Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Upward Revision of 2010 Oil DemandGlobal Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Upward Revision of 2010 Oil Demand

20092009--2010 2010 Regional Product Demand Growth (KBD)Regional Product Demand Growth (KBD)20092009--2010 2010 Regional Product Demand Growth (KBD)Regional Product Demand Growth (KBD)

Page 20: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

20

Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Non-OPEC Supply and OPEC NGLs Rises This Year Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Non-OPEC Supply and OPEC NGLs Rises This Year

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

84.0

86.0

88.0

90.0

47

49

51

53

55

57

59

2007 2008 2009 2010

OPEC NGLs Non-OPEC Supply World Demand

World Oil Balance World Oil Balance 20072007--2010 2010 (MBD)(MBD)World Oil Balance World Oil Balance 20072007--2010 2010 (MBD)(MBD) Call on OPEC Crude Call on OPEC Crude 20072007--2010 2010 (MBD)(MBD)Call on OPEC Crude Call on OPEC Crude 20072007--2010 2010 (MBD)(MBD)

Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &

refining margins

•• We see NonWe see Non--OPEC supply increasing by OPEC supply increasing by 500 500 KBD this year and the uptick in nonKBD this year and the uptick in non--OPEC supply is led OPEC supply is led

by Brazil, US, Kazakhstan and Columbia.by Brazil, US, Kazakhstan and Columbia.

•• World oil demand is still mainly balanced by CallWorld oil demand is still mainly balanced by Call--on OPEC.on OPEC.

27.5

28.0

28.5

29.0

29.5

30.0

30.5

31.0

31.5

32.0

2007 2008 2009 2010

OPEC Production Call on OPEC Crude

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21

Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : OPEC Still Injects Extra Barrels into the Market Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : OPEC Still Injects Extra Barrels into the Market

Saudi Arabia Kuwait UAE Nigeria Others

Spare Production Capacity (MBD)Spare Production Capacity (MBD)Spare Production Capacity (MBD)Spare Production Capacity (MBD)

Saudi Arabia 3.8

Others 1.3

Nigeria 0.6

UAE 0.4

Kuwait 0.4

Idle production capacity is totally around Idle production capacity is totally around 6 6 MBD at the moment MBD at the moment

Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &

refining margins

OPEC Crude Oil Production and Capacity (MBD)OPEC Crude Oil Production and Capacity (MBD)OPEC Crude Oil Production and Capacity (MBD)OPEC Crude Oil Production and Capacity (MBD)

Page 22: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

US Crude Inventories (MB)US Crude Inventories (MB)US Crude Inventories (MB)US Crude Inventories (MB)

Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Fundamentals Improved but Stock Was Built Ahead Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : Fundamentals Improved but Stock Was Built Ahead

US stocks currently remain high above US stocks currently remain high above 55--year average, while distillate stock have steadily year average, while distillate stock have steadily

decline since the start of the year. decline since the start of the year.

Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &

refining margins

US Gasoline Inventories (MB)US Gasoline Inventories (MB)US Gasoline Inventories (MB)US Gasoline Inventories (MB)

US Total Distillate Inventories (MB)US Total Distillate Inventories (MB)US Total Distillate Inventories (MB)US Total Distillate Inventories (MB) US Total Commercial Inventories (MB)US Total Commercial Inventories (MB)US Total Commercial Inventories (MB)US Total Commercial Inventories (MB)

Page 23: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

23

Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : More additions, More closuresGlobal Oil Market : Global Oil Market : More additions, More closures

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Asia Europe North America FSU Middle East Africa

Additional Closure

• Closures only refer to announced shutdowns

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10

Pakistan

India

China

•• Only Only 800 800 KBD of global net capacity KBD of global net capacity

addition is expected to come on stream addition is expected to come on stream

in in 2010 2010 which is less lower than which is less lower than 22..5 5

MBD addition in MBD addition in 20092009..

•• Additional refining capacity is mainly Additional refining capacity is mainly

from China and India.from China and India.

2010 2010 Refinery Capacity Additions and Closures (KBD)Refinery Capacity Additions and Closures (KBD)2010 2010 Refinery Capacity Additions and Closures (KBD)Refinery Capacity Additions and Closures (KBD)

Source : JBC, FACTS

2010 2010 Asian Refinery Capacity Additions (KBD)Asian Refinery Capacity Additions (KBD)2010 2010 Asian Refinery Capacity Additions (KBD)Asian Refinery Capacity Additions (KBD)

20072007--2009 2009 Refinery Capacity Net Additions (KBD)Refinery Capacity Net Additions (KBD)20072007--2009 2009 Refinery Capacity Net Additions (KBD)Refinery Capacity Net Additions (KBD)

Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &

refining margins

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24

Global Oil Market : Global Oil Market : More than Just FundamentalGlobal Oil Market : Global Oil Market : More than Just Fundamental

NYMEX WTI vs. US Dollar Index NYMEX WTI vs. US Dollar Index NYMEX WTI vs. US Dollar Index NYMEX WTI vs. US Dollar Index

Mixed signal of Eurozone fiscal’s health Mixed signal of Eurozone fiscal’s health

encouraged funds to move from equity & oil encouraged funds to move from equity & oil

market to “safe heaven USD”market to “safe heaven USD”

Stronger greenback reduced the appeal of Stronger greenback reduced the appeal of

dollardollar--priced asset as an alternative investmentpriced asset as an alternative investment

NYMEX WTI vs. S&P NYMEX WTI vs. S&P 500500NYMEX WTI vs. S&P NYMEX WTI vs. S&P 500500

Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &

refining margins

S&P 500

WTI

WTI

USDX

Page 25: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

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Eurozone’s

Fiscal Health

US Reaction

against Iran

Nuclear Project

Nigerian

Political

Tension

Global Monetary

Policy

Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &

refining margins

Various Factors to Keep An Eye OnVarious Factors to Keep An Eye OnVarious Factors to Keep An Eye OnVarious Factors to Keep An Eye On

Page 26: The Bangchak Petroleum Plc. - listed companybcp.listedcompany.com/misc/presentation/20100520_Analyst...4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 12 Refinery BU : performance is still in good

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Crack Spread & Refining Margin OutlookCrack Spread & Refining Margin OutlookCrack Spread & Refining Margin OutlookCrack Spread & Refining Margin Outlook

Macroeconomics Global Oil Market Factors to watchCrack spreads &

refining margins

Source : JBC

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

พ.ค.-10 มิ.ย.-10 ก.ค.-10 ส.ค.-10 ก.ย.-10 ต.ค.-10 พ.ย.-10 ธ.ค.-10

Estimated Cracked Dubai Margin UNL95-Dub Kero-Dub Gasoil 0.5%S-Dub HSFO 180cst -Dub

Refining Margin Outlook

Crack Spread Outlook

20102010--2011 2011 Singapore Cracked Margin Outlook ($/BBL)Singapore Cracked Margin Outlook ($/BBL)20102010--2011 2011 Singapore Cracked Margin Outlook ($/BBL)Singapore Cracked Margin Outlook ($/BBL)

We estimate Singapore crack margin will be sustainable We estimate Singapore crack margin will be sustainable

at at 55--6 6 $/BBL throughout the year. $/BBL throughout the year.

Gasoline cracks are expected to remain supported by

increase driving and lower Chinese export in May and June

Jet cracks are expected to recover

due to peak travell ing season in 4Q

Fuel oil crack pattern may stay tepid,

mirroring the steady rise of benchmark crude

Gasoil cracks are expected to be

stronger in 4Q due to winter demand