The Australian Natural Disaster

Resilience Index

Dr Melissa ParsonsBushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre

& University of New England

© Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC and University of New England

This presentation has been prepared for the Actuaries Institute 2018 Catastrophe Risk Seminar.The Institute Council wishes it to be understood that opinions put forward herein are not necessarily those of the

Institute and the Council is not responsible for those opinions.

Time: Science and Space, January 2013

The rise of resilience

• Academic publications on

resilience have risen over the

last 15 years

– 2000 – 250 publications

– 2016 – 6,000 publications

• The adoption of resilience into

government policy and

programs is also increasing

Castle

Cove,

Sydney Photo: RFS

Lismore

floods Photo:

Peter

Hunt, AAP

The landscape of disaster resilience in Australia

1) How did we get to disaster resilience?

2) The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index

Today’s talk…….

How did we get to disaster resilience?

Risk prevention

Pre 1970s

Vulnerability

1970s onwards

Resilience

1990s onwards

Perspectives guiding the management of natural hazards over

the last century

The risk prevention perspective

• Engineering solutions to

control the physical

processes of hazards as

the way to reduce

losses

Levee building on the Mississippi River, 1930Photo: New Orleans Public Library

The vulnerability perspective

• A people-centered approach

• Vulnerability = the conditions

determined by physical, social,

economic and environmental

factors or processes which

increase the susceptibility of an

individual, a community, assets

or systems to the impacts of

hazards.

United Nations International Strategy for

Disaster Risk ReductionBhola Cyclone, Bangladesh, 1970Photo: Getty Images

The resilience perspective

• Resilience is an approach to

understanding, living with,

managing and adapting to

change, complexity and

uncertainty

• Resilience acknowledges the

agency of people to live and

develop within dynamic

environments

1970s

2010s

Disaster resilience

• Disaster resilience = the capacity of communities to prepare for, absorb and recover from natural hazard events and the capacities of communities to learn, adapt and transform towards resilience

Parsons et al.The Australian Natural Disaster

Resilience IndexGet Ready Narrabri Citizen’s JuryPhoto: M. Parsons

The Australian Natural Disaster Resilience Index

Design of the index - capacities

The means by which people or organizations use available resources

and abilities to face adverse consequences that could lead to a

disaster (UNISDR 2004)

Factors influencing the ability to prepare for, absorb and recover from a

natural hazard event

The arrangements and processes that enable adjustment through learning, adaptation and transformation

The facilitation of adaptation by governance, institutional, management and social arrangements and processes.

Community resilience to natural hazards

Coping

capacity

Adaptive

capacity

Design of the index – resilience themes

Not presented

today

INDEX – SOCIAL CHARACTER THEMEThe social factors that influence the capacity to prepare for and recover from a natural hazard event

© BUSHFIRE AND NATURAL HAZARDS CRC 2017

Lower disaster resilience

Higher disaster resilience

Model = Ordered Weighted Average17 indicators

Based on 17 indicators of:MigrationLanguage proficiencyHousehold & family compositionNeed for assistanceEducationEmploymentIn

teri

m f

ind

ings

Feb

201

8

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INDEX – SOCIAL CHARACTER THEMEThe social factors that influence the capacity to prepare for and recover from a natural hazard event

© BUSHFIRE AND NATURAL HAZARDS CRC 2017

Lower disaster resilience

Higher disaster resilience

Based on 17 indicators of:MigrationLanguage proficiencyHousehold & family compositionNeed for assistanceEducationEmployment

Inte

rim

fin

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eb 2

018

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INDEX – ECONOMIC CAPITAL THEME

© BUSHFIRE AND NATURAL HAZARDS CRC 2017

Lower resilience

Higher resilience

Model = Ordered Weighted Average17 indicators

The economic factors that influence the capacity to prepare for and recover from a natural hazard event

Based on 17 indicators of:Home ownershipIncomeEconomic diversityBusiness activityEconomic inequality

Inte

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INDEX – ECONOMIC CAPITAL THEME

© BUSHFIRE AND NATURAL HAZARDS CRC 2017

Lower resilience

Higher resilience

The economic factors that influence the capacity to prepare for and recover from a natural hazard event

Based on 17 indicators of:Home ownershipIncomeEconomic diversityBusiness activityEconomic inequality

Inte

rim

fin

din

gs F

eb 2

018

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INDEX – EMERGENCY SERVICES THEME

© BUSHFIRE AND NATURAL HAZARDS CRC 2017

Model = 2 level formative Ordered Weighted Average & Choquet Integral15 indicators

The capacity and potential of emergency service and health resources to respond to natural hazard events

Lower resilience

Higher resilience

Based on 15 indicators of:Health workforceEmergency service workforceEmergency service funding per capitaRemoteness

Inte

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018

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© BUSHFIRE AND NATURAL HAZARDS CRC 2017

INDEX – INFRASTRUCTURE AND PLANNING THEME

Model = 2 level formative Ordered Weighted Average & Choquet Integral10 indicators

The capacity to prepare for natural hazards using landuse planning, mitigation or disaster planning

Lower resilience

Higher resilience

Based on 10 indicators of:Dwelling age and typeEmergency planning assessment scoreCouncil capacityPlanning assessment score

Inte

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018

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© BUSHFIRE AND NATURAL HAZARDS CRC 2017

INDEX – INFRASTRUCTURE AND PLANNING THEMEThe capacity to prepare for natural hazards using landuse planning, mitigation or disaster planning

Lower resilience

Higher resilience

Based on 10 indicators of:Dwelling age and typeEmergency planning assessment scoreCouncil capacityPlanning assessment score

Inte

rim

fin

din

gs F

eb 2

018

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© BUSHFIRE AND NATURAL HAZARDS CRC 2017

INDEX – COMMUNITY CAPITAL THEMECapacity for cohesion, connectedness and coordination for mutual benefit

Lower resilience

Higher resilience

Model = Ordered Weighted Average with orness (compensability) 0.33311 indicators

Based on 11 indicators of:Crime and safetyAccess to servicesVolunteeringWellbeingLength of residence

Inte

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018

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© BUSHFIRE AND NATURAL HAZARDS CRC 2017

INDEX – COMMUNITY CAPITAL THEMECapacity for cohesion, connectedness and coordination for mutual benefit

Lower resilience

Higher resilience

Based on 11 indicators of:Crime and safetyAccess to servicesVolunteeringWellbeingLength of residence

Inte

rim

fin

din

gs F

eb 2

018

Pre

limin

ary

resu

lts

–d

o n

ot

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© BUSHFIRE AND NATURAL HAZARDS CRC 2017

INDEX – INFORMATION AND ENGAGEMENT THEMECapacity to interact with information about natural hazards

Lower resilience

Higher resilience

Based on 3 indicators of:ADSL coverageMobile phone coverageCommunity engagement assessment score

Model = Choquet Integral3 indicators In

teri

m f

ind

ings

Feb

201

8

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BRINGING IT ALL TOGETHER - COPING CAPACITY INDEX

Inte

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Preliminary results – do not cite

The State of Disaster Resilience Report

• Strengths-based approach to

interpretation of disaster resilienceDarlinghurst

AURIN Heat MapRAI Typology