the arctic sea ice monitoring and climate...
TRANSCRIPT
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Hiroyuki Enomoto National Institute of Polar Research
The Arctic Sea Ice Monitoring and Climate Variation
Monitoring Climate Change from Space COP21 Japan Pavilion, Dec. 4, 2015
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Background • Arctic warming rate is twice faster than other regions. • The enhanced change in the Arctic is called “Polar Amplification” of warming.
Sea ice area in September 2012 was nearly half of that in 1980s (JAXA-ADS).
Observed surface air temperature anomalies from the 1880-1890 mean, for each latitude bands, 9 year moving average (Shindell and Faluvegi, 2009).
North of 60N
2012 1980s
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“Polar Amplification” and “Feedbacks” in climate system • Arctic sea ice declining became drastic in 2000’s with the
summer minimum record in 2012 (“Early Indicator”). • Arctic sea ice change is an results of warming, and at
same time, sea ice is the cause of accelerating warming by “Ice albedo feedback”.
Summer sea ice
sea
ice
area
Year
atmosphere Insolation
reflection
Snow/ice
Data: JMA
terrestrial radiation
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Sea ice
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Questions arise from Arctic and sea ice Why Arctic warming is so rapid? How sea ice is changing? What is the influence to various fielded of Arctic? How we can monitor, understand, respond to change?
Atmosphere Ocean Terrestrial condition Cryosphere/hydrosphere change and Society
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AMSR-2 data products and visualization for Arctic study through ADS/GRENE Arctic Project, NIPR, JAXA
Snow cover Soil moisture
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/vishop-monitor.html
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Seasonal cycle of sea ice
Large fluctuation
Spring Autumn
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Winter temperature is increasing
Summer Sea ice melting is strong air conditioner
Warming is not apparent on this figure, however change is occurring in the other style.
Data:NCEP
Temperature at North Pole
Month-year
Air T
empe
ratu
re (C
)
Summer temperature is very stable and homogeneous on sea ice
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Sea ice: reflection of solar radiation
Forming melt pond over sea ice
Heat: ice melt, stored in open water…
Microwave suganal of melt water
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Contribution of each processes to Arctic warming amplification
Arctic amplification and feedback Ar
ctic
am
plifi
catio
n in
dex
(AAI
)
CO2 Water vapor Albedo Cloud Surface evap. Large-scale condense. Cumulus Sens. heat + turbulent Advection Ocean heat content
Month
-Warming is small in Jun.-Aug., when solar radiation is reflected by ice. Heat is absorbed in ocean.
-The heat is released in Oct.-Dec.
-Amplified warming is maintained with cloud feedback.
Expanding open water=Ocean: heat storage
Ice : Albedo Heat & vapor release from Ocean+Cloud formation
Summer Autumn
Yoshimori et al. (2014)
Positive Negative
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summer
winter spring
autumn
Decay: melting
Opening Lead
River dicharge
Freezing, Growth
Snow cover
Mid-latitude weather,
Ice conditions
Open water, melt pond,
Sea ice seasonal cycle and satellite monitoring
ice thickness
Weather, Transport, Ocean environment
Heat and water vapor, cloud
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AMSR-E/AMSR2 thickness : every September 10
Purple-pink: melt pond concentration
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007 2008 2009 2010 2012
2013
Krishfield et al, 2014 Data: Tateyama Kitami Inst. Tech。
Thinning of sea ice
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Fragile ice : Thin ice and violent weather
Reduction of sea ice in 2012.8.1-18 Reduction of sea ice in
2012.8.1-18
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New Arctic weather condition: Great Arctic Cyclone (GAC)
Wind, wave: Coastal and navigation safety, mixing (ocean), erosion(coast)
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summer
winter spring
autumn
Decay: melting
Opening Lead
River dicharge
Freezing, Growth
Snow cover
Mid-latitude weather,
Ice conditions
Open water, melt pond,
Sea ice seasonal cycle and satellite monitoring
ice thickness
Weather, Transport, Ocean environment
Heat and water vapor, cloud
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Winter ice growth by dynamic condition, and forecast of summer sea ice Data: GCOM-W AMSR2
Yamaguchi lab. Univ of Tokyo http://www.1.k.u-tokyo.ac.jp/YKWP/2015arctic.html
In situ freezing/sea ice dynamics
Thin / thick ice Dynamic conditions
Winter ice motion for forecasting summer retreat
GRENE Arctic project
Univ. of Tokyo Group N. Kimura and H. Yamahguchi
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2013.03.04 & 02.18NOAA Changing winter sea ice conditions Data: GCOM-W AMSR2
Winter sea ice coverage, thickness, movement
Frequent opening/ridging Water vapor and heat releases Summer ice prediction
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1979 2014
Cold and snow in the Mid-latitudes
Sea Ice Decrease in winter
Snow and cold air to
mid-latitudes as extreme weather .
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Concluding remarks
Satellite observation and advance of analyzing technology provide new understanding of Arctic: Arctic warming Polar Amplification, Ice albedo feed back Ice reduction: more open water, heat + water cycle snow
ocean, cloud, cyclone, atmospheric circulation, snow Application to Society
Weather, Mid-latitude connection, Environment, Coastal safety, Transport and industry
From observation and understanding, Japanese new project ArCS (2015-20) aims to provide scientific information for Arctic environment and sustainable development ,and global role 2015-2020 (MEXT, Japan)
2011-2015 (MEXT, Japan)