the afghan dilemma

8/6/2019 The Afghan Dilemma

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T H E A F G H A N

D i l E M M APAKISTANIS STRATEGIC

CONFUSION IN THE

WESTERN THEATRE

by: Shahzad Masood Room;

The 10 years long American war in Afghanistan is

taking a tum similar to the one the Soviets fought some

30 years ago. Just like the Soviets, tactical victories by

the USINATO forces in Afghanistan soon turned into

the strategic encirclement of the allied forces by

Afghan resistance, which has adopted an immensely

difficult to counter 'strategy of void'. The Afghan

resistance has denied the allied forces any actual targetto hit at. The USINATO forces are fighting against an

enemy that is totally elusive but equally ruthless. This

strategy has been frustrating the USINATO forces

since the last 10 years but now this frustration has

transformed into fear, which is creeping in the minds

of the invading forces that find themselves encircled

by an unseen and unforgiving adversary. This fear of

the unseen enemy is now dictating the USINATO

forces' tactics inAfghanistan. There is complete chaos

in the US camp now as they have failed to secure any

strategic goal in Afghanistan. In fear, the US military

is taking desperate measures by turningcounterinsurgency ops into an ethnic cleansing

campaign, which is also going to blow in their faces

sooner than later.

On this side of the Durand Line, Pakistan has been

caught in a vicious circle due to the prolonged Afghan

conflict. Pakistan has suffered more fatalities in WoT

than the ones faced by the US and NATO forces

combined in Afghanistan during the last 10 years. But

in the presence of the current Afghan policy, there is

no end in sight to this unfortunate string of events. The

current Afghan policy is an amalgamation of

confusion and chaos which has been undermining

Pakistan's national security in the Western theatre

since the last decade. Officially, Pakistan is a frontline

ally of the USINATO but ironically, every high level

official of the US and NATO countries criticize thePakistani intelligence agencies for being the biggest

accomplice of the Afghan Taliban against the Allies.

The USINATO forces are now in an open military

clash with Pakistan army on the Durand line as well.

On the other hand, the Taliban consider Pakistan to be

a USINATO ally and are annoyed at the former's

Afghan policy. This situation is a strategic nightmare

for Islamabad and Pakistan is losing her diplomatic

clout in Afghan affairs after adopting a 'made in USA'

Afghan policy!

It seems as if in the whole Afghan equation, the

Afghan Taliban and other resistance elements are the

only stakeholders who are not confused over this

nerve-breaking cliffhanger. In fact they are getting

more focused inside Afghanistan and are hitting the

allied forces with more lethality at a higher frequency.

The death toll of the foreign forces in Afghanistan is

increasing with every passing year.



For Pakistan, the current situation demands an

incisive re-evaluation of the decade old Afghan

policy. This reassessment must be based on the

emerging threats to Pakistan's national security,

particularly on the Western borders due to the

presence of foreign forces in Afghanistan instead of

the traditional thinking of remaining in the US camp at

any cost. Indeed the Indo-US strategic relations in the21 st century and their impact on Pakistan would also be

a critical consideration during any policy review and

Islamabad would not like to further deteriorate its

already troubled relations with Washington. But the

national and regional security related events that have

transpired during the last 10 years as well as the

emergence of China as a major global player,

necessitate a comprehensive overhauling of

Islamabad's strategic thinking and the Afghan policy.

In the current phase of the Afghan conflict, Pakistanhas the leverage to take some strategic strides in order

to protect its own sovereignty and bring durable peace

in Afghanistan. The dilemma has magnified to such

proportions that having failed to fully utilize this

leverage the military establishment in Pakistan is now

faced with immense pressure to carry out a full-scale

operation in North Waziristan. These are the US war

tactics that have botched her in Afghanistan and not

some isolated armed tribesmen who cross into

Afghanistan to seek revenge for the deaths of their

dear ones killed in the relentless US drone attacks. No

part of Pakistani territory has played any role in

creating the grim state of affairs faced by the US forces

in Afghanistan today. However, it is highly

unfortunate that Pakistan has failed miserably in

Journey back home - In a casket!

On a wild goose chase - Occupation force

confused, disoriented and scared!

presenting its case in a forceful manner.

After realizing the bitter fact that the coalition cannot

win in Afghanistan, now the USINATO have

unleashed hell on the Afghan civilians in order to

break the resistance by using the scorch earth strategy.

Their aim is to break the low and mid level fighting

elements of the Afghan resistance physiologically by

destroying their dwellings and oppressing their

spouses. There are some complex dynamics of theAfghan society which the US forces had completely

ignored in their war against the Taliban. The US is

desperately trying to win a war using its military

strategy alone and this is something that has never

worked in the past and is now going to fail in

Afghanistan aswell.

Why the US can't win in Afghanistan?

Pressure on the US forces is so intense that it is being

felt in Washington as well. President Obama had tosack the US forces' commander in Afghanistan twice

within the first thirteen months of his tenure in the

White House. Obama is desperate for securing some

sort of military victory inAfghanistan before the 2012

presidential elections. However, this goal remains

elusive as the US forces are losing the critical battle of

winning the hearts and minds of the common Afghan

people due to the following factors:



The US army is now profiling the Afghan

population, particularly in Kandahar and

Helmand provinces in the South, using

biometric finger printing and Iris pattern-

scanning for keeping the individual's unique

biological record for later use. But these tactics

are only good for guarding installations and

premises; they cannot save the USINATO

soldiers from the IED blasts or ambushes.

1.

The Taliban are elusive targets and ruthless

hidden predators. Their battle strategy has

forced the US forces to execute an inhuman

annihilation strategy in the villages of

Afghanistan. The US Special Forces are using

2 .

the scorch earth tactics in order to break the

resistance but it is certainly going to enrage the

Afghans.

In one such operation, Tarok Kolache, a small

settlement in Kandahar, was wiped off from the

face of the planet by the US forces after being

met with stiff resistance put up by the Taliban

fighters. The Taliban had planted IEDs and

mines in the nearby orchards adopting a very

complex deployment pattern. After two failed

attempts by the US forces to enter the village,

the commander ofthe ground forces called in an

air strike to pulverize the whole village. The

USAF's A-IO and B-57 bombers delivered

Biometrics profiling - tagging every Afghan has given some success to the occupation forces!



The Petraeus solution - A Pashtun village - Before and after!

some 49,0001bs of ordinance and

"accomplished that mission".

Such operations are breeding a sense of

vindictive ferocity among the civilian populace

against the ISAF presence on the Afghan soil.

These operations are part of Petraeus 's policy to

break the Taliban strongholds in Southern 4.

Afghanistan. Petraeus is hoping for surrender

from the Taliban to gain an advantageous

position prior to the Obama administration's

initiation of talks with them. On the other hand,

the Taliban have made it clear that no

negotiations are possible unless the USINATOforces have withdrawn completely. For the first

time, the Taliban are facing a real threat and

challenge from such operations. s .

The reliance on military strategy alone in

Afghanistan has failed the USINATO; their

political strategy is on the backseat while

Washington's military complex is calling the

shots in the Afghan war. So it would be safe to

assume that more ops like Tarok Kolache are in

the making.

3. Military operations in Southern Afghanistan

are more of revenge than counterinsurgency

operations. The US Forces are challenging the

centuries old social order of Afghan society,

which the Afghans guardjealously.

The US forces have enraged the conservative

Afghan society, particularly the Pushtuns, by

disrespecting their social norms during their

search operations in Southern Afghanistan.

Body-searching women, entering into housesand killing civilians in raids-as revealed in

Wikileaks -are creating more hatred against

the USINATO forces than any goodwill.

Majority of Pushtun population has no

representation in the Afghan government and

Afghan National Army (ANA). The Current

strength of ANA is around 150,000, which

would be increased to a total strength of

260,000 by the year 2014, with only 3-4%

representation of Pushtuns from SouthernAfghanistan.

Karzai is Pushtun but has been isolated after he

expressed his disappointment over the

removal of General McChrystal, and due to the

growing civilian casualties as a result of the

allied forces' attacks. The Pushtuns also

consider him as a US puppet in Kabul.

Presently, the US has no replacement for

Karzai.

6. The US forces are fighting an aimless war

creating nuisance among fighting units. There

is no enemy in sight but there is certainly one

in the battlefield. Taliban tactics have infused a

sense of void, silence, isolation and non-

engagement with others in the minds of the

USINATO forces. This is intolerable for

invading forces who want to engage Taliban in

frontal battles. On the other hand, pushing



End of the road! - For the US war planners,

Afghanistan is the zr century Vietnam!

their strategy to the next level, Taliban oftendeliver painful side attacks and pinprick bites

by attacking moving columns of the

USINATO forces.

7. The US forces have no standardized reporting 2.

system, metric or narrative so that a complete

broader picture of the whole battlefield can be

drawn in order to take important decisions and

devise any new strategy. The previous system

used by the USINATO forces cannot cater to

the important local factors like ethnicity,linguistics, tribal allegiance and political ties.

This fact proves that the Afghan war is many

times more complex than the one in Iraq.

8. The USINATO is forced to tum a blind eye to

the massive corruption going on in the Afghan

government. Karzai and Northern Alliance are

the only supporters of the ISAF forces in

Afghanistan.

Americans are banking their hopes onPetraeus to pull off another Iraq like success in

Afghanistan (Success in Iraq by Petraeus itself

remains a debatable issue as that country is still

facing ethnic and sectarian chaos) but it seems

this success would be a mere tactical win once

again. No war can be won without mass

support and this is something the USINATO

forces don't have now and would never have in

future!

Future Dynamics of the Afghan Conflict and

Pakistan:

Pakistan has emerged as the net loser in the Afghan

conflict due to the mismanagement of its foreign

policy priorities. There is a complete confusion in

Islamabad about the future dynamics of the Afghan

conflict, particularly in the post withdrawal scenario.

1. Right now, all the parties in the Afghan

conflict are angry at Pakistan. The US feels

that Pakistan is supporting the Afghan Taliban;

the Afghan Taliban perceive Pakistan as the

USINATO ally because the NATO supplies

pass through Pakistan and are keeping the US

war alive in Afghanistan. The Northern

Alliance feels that Pakistan is supporting the

Afghan Pashtuns and Taliban. On the other

hand, Pakistan has reasons to believe that the

USINATOIAfghan armies and Indian RAW

are supporting the TTP insurgency inside

Pakistan using the Afghan soil.

The Indians are exploiting the growing

mistrust between the USINATO and Pakistan.

They are also trying to take advantage of the

Northern Alliance's discontentment with

Pakistan in the ensuing confusion in order to

cultivate gains for themselves. Here the

primary Indian objective is to keep Pakistanout of the Afghan affairs by creating an

impression that Pakistan is the real cause

behind the failure of the USINATO forces in

Afghanistan. India is using its media as well as

Razing the Afghan villages - Deploying Scorched

Earth policy to break the resistance



Pakistan Army - Already fighting a CIA/RAW backed insurgency - is stretched thin on western borders!

its strong political lobby in Washington to S.

achieve this goal.

3. The Indian media has taken over the Afghan

cities and countryside. Indian dramas are

becoming blockbuster hits in Kabul homes.

On the other hand, Pakistan does not even have

a single TV or cable network showing

Pakistani content. Pakistan also does not

broadcast in Dari, Uzbek or Farsi, practically

abandoning the non-Pashtu speakers to the

Indian propaganda machine.

4. The US would now be expanding the warinside Pakistan through Baluchistan. The

US/NATO supply line passing through

Pakistan is the only reason why the US has not

started its drone attacks in Baluchistan, though

CIA drones have recently flown over Chaman

area in Baluchistan. Any aggression in

Baluchistan by the CIA can stir up retaliatory

action from Islamabad, threatening their

supply routes toAfghanistan.

The Pakistan army is also faced with ever-

mounting pressure from Washington to launch

a military operation in North WaziristanAgency against the elements of the Haqqani

network, a tribal militia that is part of the

Afghan resistance against the occupying

forces. Despite the assistance of the Haqqani

network, majority of the resistance forces

comprise ofAfghan Pushtuns and nationalistic

elements from certain other ethnic groups.

Pakistan army is already spread too thin across

the entire swath ofFATA and NWFP including

the North WaziristanAgency (NWA).

A common misperception is that Pakistan army has no

presence in NWA but this is far from reality. The

Pakistan military has been conducting small-scale ops

in the region since 2005. More than 700 terrorists and

300 Pakistani army men have been killed in NWA

during the last 5 years. A military operation in North

Waziristan is necessary from Pakistan's own security

point of view, as this territory has become a safe haven

for various criminal and terrorist groups from all over

Pakistan. But as already stated, the Pakistan army is



suffering from severe operational and logistical

constraints as its strength is being stretched along the

entire swath ofFATA and parts of NWFP. The US is

not making timely payments to Pakistan army as part

of the coalition support fund, making the matters

worse. The Pakistan army cannot afford to move more

units from its Eastern border into FATA given the

current scenario.

Apart from its operational feasibility, there are some

other factors due to which the Pakistan army cannot

launch a full scale military operation inside NWAright

now. The military had signed peace agreements with

two important militant factions in 2006, Gul Bahadur

and Molvi Nazeer, in order to establish its footprint in

the area in a peaceful manner. It is not clear what

impact a new military operation would have on these

peace treaties. Any hasty decision .to condu~t a

comprehensive operation can push Pakistan army I~to

a hornet's nest, with the most important question

looming ominously: How will the Pakistan army

ensure that no further demands would be made for

conducting military operations in South Punjab and

Quetta aswell?

The window of opportunity for Pakistan in the Afghan

theatre is closing. If Pakistan doesn't playa decisive

role in Afghanistan today it would lose that country

forever. In the simplest terms, Pakistan's Western

border will tum into a hostile one as well and remain

that way for a very long time to come. It is high timethat Pakistan should cater to the Pushtun sentiment

against the US occupation ofAfghanistan.

Weighing Pakistan's Options:

Right now, Pakistan has three options for formulating

its national security policy in the Western theatre

given the current geopolitical milieu:

1. Pakistan can continue with the current flawed

policy, adopted by the Musharrafregime b~ckin 2001, and keep facing problems like

terrorism, insurgencies, chaos and anarchy

within Pakistani precincts along with

unchecked foreign meddling into its political

matters.

Due to this flawed policy, Pakistan army has been

conducting the counterinsurgency operations across

FATA and Malakand since 2003 but there is no

permanent solution in sight due to the fact th~t back in

2001, Pakistan became the US ally III WoT

unconditionally and accepted the role set by

Washington and is now paying the penalty. Pakistan

cannot survive with this policy in the future due to the

following factors:

• There would be no end to terrorism, chaos andinsurgencies, while other shreds of 4GW

would keep haunting Pakistan.

• TTP's safe havens, sponsored by Indian RAW,

would remain protected by CIA inside

Afghanistan.

• The facade of WoT would keep providing

cover for the surrogate wars waged by the

hostile agencies and elements against

Pakistan.

• CIA would expand its footprint in the other

areas of the country. Their presence on

Pakistani soil is already undermining

Pakistan's national security.

• Internal chaos and anarchy would provide

more opportunities to India to use its political

clout in the Western capitals to get Pakistan

declared a failed and terrorist state.

• The Afghan resistance would be under greater

pressure than ever before due to the extr~me

tactics used by the USINATO forces. RIght

now, the Afghan resistance does not perceive

Pakistan as a hostile entity but is monitoring

Pakistan's Afghan policy suspiciously. The

prevailing situation can lead to hostile

relations between Afghan resistance and

Pakistan. This will be suicidal, keeping in

mind the fact that Northern Alliance elements

are already antagonistic towards Pakistan.

• Continuation of the current Afghan policy

would encourage the USINATO forces to step

up the ethnic cleansing of Pushtun population

inside Afghanistan. This would create violent

exasperation among the Pakistani Pushtuns

and the Pakistani state and nation will become

victims ofmore violence from within.



Pakistan's current Afghan policy has not only

devastated the national security profile but its

catastrophic impact has tom apart the social cohesion

within the country as well. Continuation of this policy

is the gravest national security threat as it is the reason

behind the vicious cycle of terrorism and chaos. It

must be revamped radically and that too in the shortest

possible time.

2. Pakistan can declare impartiality in Afghan

conflict:

This approach is also impractical and would not

guarantee any stability in the current chaotic situation

prevailing in the Pakistani society. It is time to take

sides decisively and promptly.

3 . Pakistan must decide to playa decisive role in

Afghanistan and bring the American war onterror to its end and force a withdrawal of

foreign forces from Afghanistan. Pakistan will

have to renegotiate its terms of engagement

with the US on all the regional issues

particularly Pakistan's role in the Afghan peace

process.

Pakistan must go for a complete overhaul of its

national security and foreign policy vis-a-vis

Afghanistan. But this strategic paradigm shift

demands a radical change in the strategic thinking ofPakistani political and military establishment

regarding the whole Afghan conflict, the various

dynamics of this conflict and post withdrawal

scenario inAfghanistan and its regional implications

as well. To bring about this change in Islamabad's

approach towards Afghanistan, Pakistan will have to

send a strong and clear signal to the Afghan resistance

that Pakistan is not an ally of the US in this war on

terror. The following can be effective points to start

with in this regard:

• Islamabad must ask the US to announce a

decisive cutoff date ofWoT and the beginning

of its withdrawal from Afghanistan. Apart

from that, Pakistan can force the US to act on

this option by announcing its own date of

shutting off the NATO supply line going

through Pakistani lands.

• Activate old channels and links in order to

•

bring all warring factions in Afghanistan on a

single point agenda of forming national

cohesion and stabilization. It can only be

achieved if Pakistan ends the Indian role and

presence in Afghanistan. This is the only

option available to Pakistan for ending the

Indian surrogate war inside Pakistan and its

support to the dreadful terrorist outfits ofTTPandBLA.

Apart from India, Iran is another country

having stakes in Afghanistan. A close

collaboration between Pakistan and Iran is

necessary in order to forge a common front

against US presence in Afghanistan and to

bring about sectarian stability in Afghanistan

and Pakistan. Pakistan FO must take the

initiative to engage Iran for a collaborative

political solution to the Afghanistan situation.

• This will also help Pakistan to have a friendly/

non-hostile government in Kabul, an

indispensable choice for Pakistan in order to

keep its Western border secure and safe.

Pakistan will not get a friendly government in

Kabul if it does not help create one.

Pakistan is at the crossroads over the Afghan conflict.

Only an aggressive and assertive role in Afghanistan

can ensure regional stability. Stabilizing Afghanistan

is critically imperative for bringing the ongoing waveof terror and anarchy in the country to an absolute end.

The sooner Islamabad understands this, the better it

would be! Pakistan can survive without being a

strategic ally of the US but she cannot survive by

continuing with the policies, which have failed her

over the last decade. It is crucial to bring about a

radical transformation in Pakistan's foreign policy and

to reassess the strategic importance of Pak-US

relations in the 21 st century at a time when alternate

global power centers, with converging interests are

emerging in the region.

History bears witness that being an enemy ofthe US is

dangerous but being her ally is suicidal. It is time

Pakistan learns from its own history! !

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

the afghan dilemma

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