thayer china's rise, us re-engagement in southeast asia
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8/7/2019 Thayer China's Rise, US re-engagement in Southeast Asia
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China’s Rise, U.S. Re ‐ engagement
Professor Carl ThayerGeor e Mason Universit
March 22, 2011
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Southeast Asia
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Pre‐
colonial
era
China’s
System of
tributary
states
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US ‘Hub and Spokes’ Model
apan
South
Korea
Phili ines
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U.S. Pacific Command
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‐
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•
– Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore,
a an• ASEAN Treaty of Amity & Concord (TAC)• ASEAN Expands
– , ,
Myanmar (1997), Cambodia (1999)
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“ ’ ”
• ASEAN and Dialogue Partners•
eg ona orum ,
• A EAN Pl Thr APT 1 7
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• ,
• U.S.‐ ASEAN dialogue 1977+– Air pollution and climate change– International criminal activit– Trade not aid
• Priority to treaty allies (hub and spokes)
and Indonesia
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•
– science and technology cooperation– economic and trade coo eration.
• 1996, China accorded official dialogue partner
status b ASEAN• 1997 ASEAN‐ China Joint Cooperation
Committee– coordinator for all the ASEAN‐ China mechanisms
at the working level
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‐
•
– Framework Agreement on Comprehensive
Economic Coo eration between ASEAN and China• foundations for the China ‐ ASEAN Free Trade Area•
2010 developed ASEAN members• 2015 less developed ASEAN members
– Joint Declaration between China and ASEAN on
‐
• 1st ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Transnational Crime Plus
China
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•
• Actively promotes Confidence Building
– Hosted annual meeting of ARF Heads of Defense
Colleges
• 2000 China contributes to the ARF’s Annual Security Outlook
• Provides voluntary briefings on regional
security
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‐
•
• Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea
(DOC)• Joint Working Group at senior official level (2004)
•
2003
China
accedes
to
the
ASEAN
Treaty
of
• 2003 ASEAN and China declare a Strategic
• new security dialogue initiated
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’
•
of security to include political, defense,
• National Security Objective: Restore and
’
diplomatic influence• ew ecur ty oncept rst announc n
Beijing in March 1997
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‘ ’
• ‘
of equality, dialogue, trust and cooperation, and a
new security order should be established to ensure
genuine mutual respect, mutual cooperation,
consensus through consultation and peaceful
se emen o spu es, ra er an u y ng,
confrontation, and imposition of one’s own will upon
’. .– Vice President Hu Jintao a speech delivered to the
Indonesian Council on World Affairs, Jakarkta, July 2000
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• ’
Security Policy– Summit meetin of Chinese Ja anese and South
Korean leaders (1997)• Prime focus economic integration and
development of East Asian community minus
the United States• Focus on non ‐ traditional security issues such
as HA/DR
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’
•‐
agreements negotiated with all ten members
‐ ,
• Broad areas of cooperation• One C ina Po icy• High ‐ level visits
– Heads of State/government– Foreign & Defence ministers
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‘ ’
• China’s Good Neighbour Policy• na s peace u r se
• China’s peaceful development (2004)
• China’s policy of a harmonious world
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Harmonious
World1. Multilateralism for
–new security concept
2. Cooperation for
common prosperity
3. Inclusiveness,
co‐
civilizations4. Reform of United
a ons o mee new
threats and
challengesPresident Hu Jintao, Speech to 60 th
Anniversary Summit of the United
, ,
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•
– Global War on Terrorism– n erpr se or n a ve
•
2005 ‐ 08 Second Administration– Indian Ocean tsunami 2004– ASEAN‐ U.S. Enhanced Partnership Program– But Secretary of State Rice misses teo ARF
meetings
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‐
• “
States is back in Asia”• Accession to the Treaty of Amity and
Cooperation (TAC)• U.S. Mission to ASEAN•
ecre ary o a e n on s ows up– Lower Mekong Basin initiative
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st‐
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•
multilateralism“
role in the region’s multilateral architecture,
Nations (ASEAN), the Asia Pacific Economic
Coo eration forum the Trans ‐ Pacific
Partnership, and the East Asia Summit.”
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Malaysia
Vietnam
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Tensions in US‐ China Relations
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•
• 17 th ARF Meeting Secretary Clinton offers to
•
2nd
ASEAN‐
US
Leaders
Meeting
in
New
York
• 1st ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus
Eight Dialogue Partners• U.S. overturns China’s multilateral table
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• ’ . .
– Anti access/area denial in Western Pacific• South China Sea focal point• Will U.S. remain en a ed or retreat?• ASEAN’s centrality• New security architecture – East Asia
Summit