ten big trends in ten short minutes
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DESCRIPTIONThe opening session at LSS'12. Greg gives his 10 top trends and more. Plus we review LSS 2011 and theme for the 2012 summit.
- 1.Ten Big Trends in Ten Short Minutes Greg SterlingOpus Research/Sterling Market IntelligenceNovember 13, 2012
2. Last Year: LSS 11 Hype-Local: Demand, Awareness Growing Mobile Momentum Continues Social Media, SMBs & the Now What? Problem Local Data Tsunami Payments and Real-World Analytics From Clicks to Local Transactions 3. This Year: LSS 12 Continued momentum of mobile and decline of the PC Growth of tablets (and emergence of smaller tablets) Rise of multi-screen consumer Mobile shopping and showrooming Mobile payments not quite there yet Bursting of the deals bubble Decline of Facebook? Fragmentation of search, growth of apps and assistants Slow merchant response (brands, SMBs) to consumer changes SMB confusion amid market complexity Novel uses for location data (proxy for audiences) Indoor location, turn by turn directions Coming of the Zombie Apocalypse 4. Shift from PC Mobile 5. Smartphone Penetration Passing 50%Source: IPSOS, Google, ROA Holdings (2011-2012) 6. Global Mobile Penetration Mobile vs. PC Penetration (Q4 2011)7,0006,000 Total mobile subscribers: between237-250 million5,000 Smartphones: 125 million approx Millions4,000 Current smartphone penetration:55%, moving to 62% by Q4/Q1 20133,000 Pew: 68% with incomes $75K+ havesmartphones today2,0001,000 0Mobile phones (overall)Smartphones PCsSource: ITU World Telecommunication/ICT Indicators database, Gartner, Morgan Stanley (2011-2012) 7. Traffic: Mobile vs. PC DesktopMobile 10090807060 Globally: Mobile 12.3% of global web traffic50 Europe: 6.5% is mobile40302010 0Source: StatCounter, November 2012 8. Mobile vs. PC in IndiaDesktop Mobile 1009080706050403020100Source: StatCounter, October 2012 9. Apple: 100 Million iPads Sold 100 million iPads sold since launch 2.5 years ago 91% of tablet-generated web traffic comes from the iPad 94% of the Fortune 500 is testing or using the iPad 10. Microsoft Attempting to Adapt Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer: sales starting modestly." 11. Rise of Multi-Screen User 12. Same Day Sequential Screen Usage 90% use screens sequentially to accomplish a task; majority of that activityhappens the same day Different start screens for different types of activities Nearly impossible to trackSource: Google-IPSOS (August, 2012), n= 1,455. 13. Simultaneous Media UsageWhere you using/looking at any other media at the same time[when using smartphone]?82% 9% 9%Yes No 77% 13% 1% % 0 19 66%15% 36%45% 16%39% 28% 14% 64%Source: IAB, 5/12 mobile shopping diaries, n=260 14. Context, Need, Time Impact Device UseSource: Google-IPSOS (August, 2012), n= 1,611 15. Smartphones Used Extensively at Home At home97%Top 3 locations: On the go 83% 1. HomeIn a store 78% 2. On the go Restaurant71% 3. In store Work71%Social gathering60%IAB mobile diaries study:Dr.s office56% Caf50% 1. At home: 47% 2. Out and about: 29%Airport 49%3. At work: 10%On public trans.36% School30%AdMob survey (3/11): 82% oftablets used primarily at home Source: Google-Ipsos Q1, 2012 n=1,000 US smartphone owners 16. Mobile Shopping (notbuying) & Showrooming 17. Mobile Comparison Shopping Multiple studies: 60% to 80% (approx) of consumers use mobiledevices in stores Google research: 70% of smartphone owners use them in stores - What are they doing? Smartphone owners do price comparisons, check product reviews and locate storesAfter consulting their smartphones: 64% of in-store 37% decided to not purchase the product at allsmartphoneusers decided 35% purchased the product at that store not to buy on thespot 19% purchased the product online 8% purchased the product at another storeSource: Pew Research Center (Q1, 2012), n=1,000 US mobile phone owners, Google, InsightExpress surveys 2011 18. Half of Mobile Lookups Lead to Purchase Made a Purchase Related to Visit on App/Website by DeviceYesNo 16%15%51% 52%48%57% 84%85%49% 48%52%43% Restaurant Travel Automotive Restaurant Travel Automotive Smartphone TabletSource: xAd-Telmetrics mobile path to purchase study conducted by Nielsen (Q2 2012), n=1,500 survey respondents and behaviorobserved from 6,000 Apple and Android users 19. M-Commerce Penetration (US)Q: Which of the following do you use your phone for? Taking pictures/video 25% 75%Location services/maps54%46%Listening to music 59% 41%Making purchases 80% 20%Access social networks 57% 42% NoAccessing internet 44% Yes56%Playing Games65% 35% Email 48% 52% Messaging15% 85% Voice calls 11% 89%Source: UC Berkeley School of Law (July 2012), n=1,119 20. Mobile-Influenced Purchases: Offline, PC 65% of smartphone owners would prefer to use a PC/laptop for transactions 37% researched but later purchased online 32% researched and later purchased offlineSource: Google-Ipsos Q1 2012, n=1,000 21. Mobile Payments 22. Mobile Payments Are Sort of Here Lots of anticipation for mobilecommerce and mobile payments Mainstream adoption not there PayPal has a plastic card Google about to introduce one Getting from here to there: timeframe, device replacement, POSupgrades? 23. Interest M-Payments (US)Q: Would you like to use your mobile phone for any of the following purposes?Compare prices when shopping48%Receive offers/promotions based on location 33% Track finances daily31%receive and manage coupons 31%Buy things at in-store POS 25%As a membership card24%As a photo ID 23%Purcahse tickets to events23%Organize and track gift/loyalty cards and programs 21%As ticket for bus 19% As house key 18% Refused to answer18%Source: US Federal Reserve (3/12) n=2,002 US adults 24. Main Reasons for Not Using M-PaymentsQ: What are the main reasons why you have not used mobile payments?Concerned about security 42%See no benefit from using mobile payments37% Easier to pay with cash or credit card36% My phone doesnt have necessary feature(s)31%Dont trust the technology to process payments 20% Cost of mobile data too high15%Other12% Consumers express lack Difficult/time consuming to set up 9% of trust, fear and confusion about mobile payments. Unaware of stores that accept mobile payments9% They also dont yet see the Not offered by bank/credit union4%benefits.Refused to state2%Source: US Federal Reserve (3/12) n=1,780 US adults 25. Decline of Facebook? 26. Facebook: 1 Billion Users . . . But Facebook announced 1 billion users globally (October) 600MM mobile users 17 billion location-tagged posts, including check-ins Median age of the user is about 22 However engagement declining? - September 2012: 6 hrs 40 minutes (US) - March 2012: 7 hrs 9 minutes Rise of alternativesSource: Facebook internal data, Nielsen (November 2012) 27. Local Businesses Souring on Facebook? 12.8 million local businesses have Facebook pages 8 million of them monthly updates 3.5 million update weeklyDoes your business have apresence on Facebook? Yes, and I find it valuable 42% Yes, but I dont find it valuable 30% I used to, but didnt feel it wasworth it 5% No 23%58% had negative viewSource: Facebook internal data (Q3 2012); Reply.com, September 2012 (n=3,270 US SMBs under 99 employees); Manta September 2012, n=614 USSMBs 28. Evolution of Search, Rise ofAssistants in Mobile 29. Mobile Search Is Almost All Google 66% of mobile users find mobile sites through search engines US MarketGlobal Google: 93.8% Google: 97.1% Yahoo: 3.89% Yahoo: 1.88% Bing: 1.48% Bing: 0.65% Others: 0.83% Others: 0.37% Android now leading smartphone OS globally In US Android has 52% of US smartphone market (comScore)Source: Google-sponsored study with 1,088 US adults (25-54); survey/interviews conducted Q3 2012; StatCounter, September 2012. 30. Mobile App Use for Local Search Half of mobile users conduct local searches with apps (volume unclear) Use of apps for local Most popular local search appssearch on(among the 49%)smartphones andtablets Google Maps 64% Yahoo 52% 49% Mapquest39%Bing 38% YellowBook38% YPMobile36%Yelp 31%SuperPages.com 28%Citysearch 24% Urban Spoon 23%2011Other3%Source: comScore-Localeze-15Miles Local Search Study, Q1 2012, n=4,000 31. Time Spent in Mobile: Apps DominateApps Mobile web 90%81% 80% 72% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 28%19% 20% 10% 0% May 2011May 2012ComScore: 4 in every 5 mobile media minutes is spent with apps (vs. browser)Source: Nielsen (May 2012) 32. Assistant Metaphor Taking Hold 33. Merchants Slow to Respond 34. Screen Time: 90% of Media Interactions 90% of media Interactions are through one of four screens 10% of media time with traditional channelsSource: Google-IPSOS (August, 2012), n= 1,611 35. Time Spent with Mobile vs. Ad Spend US mobile ad revs (IAB 2011) approx $1.7B 64 66 74 81 MINUTESMINUTESMINUTES MINUTES43 MINUTES MINUTESSources: Mary Meeker, KPCB Internet Trends presentation May 2012, Flurry Analytics 36. Most Marketers Still Not Mobile-Ready Mobile-friendly sites produce 75% higher rate of engagement (revenue, page views, etc.) per visit for mobile users* 55% of consumer survey respondents said a frustrating mobile experience hurts opinion of the brand* Roughly 80% - 90% of Fortune 500 dont have mobile- optimized site** 79% of large online retailers dont either*** Imdisappointed in you*Google: Jason Spero (ThinkMobile event 2011), Google, Sterling Research 9/12 (USconsumer survey; n=1,088)**iMomentus, August 2012***Magento (Q2 2012) 37. Is This a Good Ad? 38. What about This? 39. New Uses for Location Data 40. Location As Context, Proxy for AudienceSkyhook Wireless, Factual, PlaceIQ, Placed, JiWire and others usinglocation profiling to enable brands and marketers to target audiences 41. Mapping the Great Indoors 42. Indoor Location, Turn-by-TurnRange ofcompanies: Google Bing Nokia Micello Meridian Point Inside Aisle411 Wifarer Others 43. To FollowContact Me Me Follow or or Contact Greg Sterling email@example.com Twitter.com/gsterling