technology advancements impacting the oil industry
TRANSCRIPT
1
Technology Advancements Impacting the Oil Industry
Ryan LanceChairman & CEO, ConocoPhillipsJune 4, 2015
Cautionary StatementThe following presentation includes forward-looking statements. These statements relate to future events, such as anticipated revenues, earnings, business strategies, competitive position or other aspects of our operations, operating results or the industries or markets in which we operate or participate in general. Actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed or forecast in such forward-looking statements. These statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may prove to be incorrect and are difficult to predict such as oil and gas prices; operational hazards and drilling risks; potential failure to achieve, and potential delays in achieving expected reserves or production levels from existing and future oil and gas development projects; unsuccessful exploratory activities; unexpected cost increases or technical difficulties in constructing, maintaining or modifying company facilities; international monetary conditions and exchange controls; potential liability for remedial actions under existing or future environmental regulations or from pending or future litigation; limited access to capital or significantly higher cost of capital related to illiquidity or uncertainty in the domestic or international financial markets; general domestic and international economic and political conditions, as well as changes in tax, environmental and other laws applicable to ConocoPhillips’ business and other economic, business, competitive and/or regulatory factors affecting ConocoPhillips’ business generally as set forth in ConocoPhillips’ filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). We caution you not to place undue reliance on our forward-looking statements, which are only as of the date of this presentation or as otherwise indicated, and we expressly disclaim any responsibility for updating such information.
Use of non-GAAP financial information – This presentation may include non-GAAP financial measures, which help facilitate comparison of company operating performance across periods and with peer companies. Any non-GAAP measures included herein will be accompanied by a reconciliation to the nearest corresponding GAAP measure on our website at www.conocophillips.com/nongaap.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors – The SEC permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved, probable and possible reserves. We use the term "resource" in this presentation that the SEC’s guidelines prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the oil and gas disclosures in our Form 10-K and other reports and filings with the SEC. Copies are available from the SEC and from the ConocoPhillips website.
2
Unconventional Reservoirs Transform U.S. Production
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA)3
U.S. Natural Gas Production(billions of cubic feet per day)
Shale Gas
Non-Shale Gas
200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014
20
30
40
50
60
70
Unconventional
Conventional
2005
U.S. Oil Production(million barrels per day)
19491953195719611965196919731977198119851989199319972001200520092013
2
4
6
8
10
ConventionalDecline Curve
4
Improving Unconventional Reservoir Technology (Eagle Ford)
• Significant cost reductions
• Increased production rate and recovery
• Expect another decade of continued improvement
• Reduced environmental impact and costs
20152013
75 Clusters 150 Clusters
5,150 ft4,800 ft
30%D&C Cost per
Well Reduction2013-2015
40%Spud to Prod Cycle
Time Reduction2013-2015
30%EUR per Well
Increase2013-2015
Job Size3.8 MM lbs
Job Size7.7 MM lbs
5
Future of Unconventional Reservoir Technologies
• Understanding is ~50 years less mature than conventional reservoirs
• Focus Areas Include:• Stimulated Rock Volume (SRV)
characterization• Sweet spot identification• Drilling and completions
efficiency• Water Management
Common Industry Interpretations
RECOVERYLow High
Map View
Cumulative Oil Production
Potential SRV Impact
Range of Industry Interpretations
Time
MM
BOE
Stimulated Rock Volume (SRV)
6
Deepwater Technology
• The new frontier has higher temperatures and pressures – 20,000 psi
• Challenges of qualifying equipment – rigs, subsea production systems
• Increasing measures for safety and environment – blowout preventers, relief wells, monitoring and surveillance
• Exploration needs advances in geophysical imaging
Developing 20,000 PSI Subsea TechnologyFMC Technologies
Maersk Valiant
7
ConocoPhillips’ Oil Sands/Heavy Oil Technology
• Improve completions to more evenly distribute steam
• More efficient steam generation
• Technologies to reduce cost of supply
• Reduce emissions and the amount of energy used in the extraction process
• Advances in drilling (pad drilling, extended wells, novel architecture)
Accelerating Recovery – Flow Control Devices
4 months
9 months
18 months
60 months
Steam Injector with FCDSteam Injector without FCD
Successful Gas Turbine Cogeneration Technology Pilot
15%REDUCTION FUEL
GAS INTENSITY1
60%REDUCTION
NOX EMISSIONS1 OTSG Fuel Gas.
8
Conventional E&P Technology
• Plug and abandonment cost reduction while simultaneously assuring better reservoir containment
• Novel technologies such as laser cutting and metal-alloy plugs to reduce rig time
• Use of automation and analytics to improve efficiency
• Technologies to measure and improve environmental impact
Wellbore Collapse/Failure
Deformed Tubing
9
Transportation Sector Emerging Technologies
• Light duty vehicle efficiency targets driving reductions in gasoline demand globally
• Multiple technologies to help meet efficiency standards• Lighter materials • Aerodynamics • Mechanical Advancements
• Aviation has the most advances in materials to reduce weight and improve fuel efficiency
Global vehicle efficiency targets drive reductions in demand for gasoline
2015 20201.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
ChinaUS Japan India EU S. Korea
Gallo
ns o
f gas
olin
e us
ed p
er 1
00
mile
s
Improving passenger vehicle fuel economy - ICCT, US Renewable Fuels Standards
10
Transportation Sector Emerging Technologies
• Biofuels already taking gasoline market share in the U.S. and expected to grow
• Advanced biofuels could pose a threat - pending a technological breakthrough to allow them to be used in internal combustion engines
• Electric vehicles are beginning to appear again as they did in 1900
• Hydrogen fuel cells do not look likely
• LNG is a possible alternative fuel for heavy road vehicles, marine and rail
Electric vehicles growth depends on battery cost & weight reduction (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles less sensitive)
*Upfront costs for electric vehicles include a $2,500-$7,500 US federal tax incentive
Ford Fusion SE (PHEV)Toyota Prius (PHEV)
GM Volt (PHEV)Ford Fusion
Toyota Camry Toyota Prius (HEV)
GM Cruze Nissan Leaf S (BEV)
Honda Civic
42,97840,57638,921
37,52137,08936,394
34,74533,67233,595
Re-sale value Upfront cost* Running Cost Total cost
BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle; PHEV: Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle; HEV: Hybrid Electric Vehicle
Biofuels already taking gasoline market share, and expected to grow
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 20220.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0 US Renewable Fuels Mandate
Renewable Biofuel Advanced Biofuel
Billi
on g
allo
ns/y
ear
Global EV outlook to 2020, EVI; Sustainable Energy in America 2015 Factbook, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
11
Technology Advancements Impacting the Oil Industry
Ryan LanceChairman & CEO, ConocoPhillipsJune 4, 2015