technologies for future cities - the innovation group
TRANSCRIPT
-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Technologies for Future Cities
Lux Efficient Building Systems Intelligence
Ryan Castilloux
EBS Research Content Lead
2 July 2012
2-- Lux and Client Confidential -- 2
Lux Research
• Helps clients capitalize on science-driven innovation, identifyingnew business opportunities from emerging technologies in thephysical sciences
• Provides both technology monitoring and market intelligenceto support better business decisions
• Has over 150 clients on six continents – blue-chip corporations,investors, government agencies, universities, and SMBs
• Sources intelligence from direct interaction and onsite visitswith CEOs and top executives at cutting-edge technology firms
• Has global reach, with over 75 employees in Boston, New York,Amsterdam, Singapore, Shanghai, Seoul, and Tokyo
• Combines deep technical expertise with business analysis; 60%of research team holds advanced degrees in science orengineering
Ove
rvie
w
Solar Components
Solar Systems
Smart Grid and Grid Storage
Electric Vehicles
Alternative Fuels
Bio-based Materials & Chemicals
Formulation and Delivery
China BioPharma
Water
Advanced Materials
Printed Electronics
Energy Electronics
Sustainable Building Materials
Efficient Building Systems
China Innovation
Lux coverage areas
3-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Agenda
Megatrends present mega challenges for the cities of today
Future cities are emerging, smarter across an array of dimensions
The eight models under which future cities develop
Opportunities aplenty for those who know where to look
4-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Agenda
Megatrends present mega challenges for the cities of today
Future cities are emerging, smarter across an array of dimensions
The eight models under which future cities develop
Opportunities aplenty for those who know where to look
5-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Today’s cities are facing unprecedented challenges
Energy- and resource-intensive
Cities consume 60% to 80% of the
world’s energy; buildings about 38%
Poor quality of life
Health costs resulting from the
country’s air pollution between 1%
to 6% of GDP for U.S. and China
Carbon-intensive
Of the 28 billion tons of CO2 emitted
annually, 8.4 billion tons comes from
energy consumption in buildings
Outdated
Electrical grids struggle to supply
demand, face increasing congestion
problems and are unsuitable for
renewables integration
6-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Rapid urbanization means increasing problems
—1.000.0002.000.0003.000.0004.000.0005.000.0006.000.0007.000.000
Oce
an
ia
N.
Am
eri
ca
Eu
rop
e
La
tin
&
Ca
rib
Afr
ica
Asi
a
Wo
rldU
rba
n P
op
ula
tio
n (
00
0's
)
2010
2030
2050
0
2 000 000
4 000 000
6 000 000
8 000 000
10 000 000
1950 1965 1980 1995 2010 2025 2040
Po
pu
lati
on
(0
00
's)
World Urban
Population
World Rural
Population
8-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Agenda
Megatrends present mega challenges for the cities of today
Future cities are emerging, smarter across an array of dimensions
The eight models under which future cities develop
Opportunities aplenty for those who know where to look
9-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Future cities will be vastly different from cities of today
Today’s cities vs. Future cities
10-- Lux and Client Confidential --
The silver lining amidst these challenges:
Future cities are becoming smarter across a number of dimensions
Future cities will be smarter about…
• Energy
• Water
• Food
• Health
• Governance
• Mobility
• Education
• Environment
• Etc.
Lux Research’s ongoing coverage of future cities focuses primarily on the
energy distribution and consumption aspects.
11-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Change brings opportunity:
A slew of unique future cities are emerging globally
PlanIT Valley
Amsterdam
Stockholm
Helsinki
Malaga
Barcelona
Berlin
Mannheim
Copenhagen
Sydney
Lavasa Singapore
Tianjin Eco-City
Meixi Lake
Songdo
SmartGridCity
TorontoVancouver
Masdar
Greenfield
Brownfield
LEGEND
Future cities integrate future city technologies…
King Abdullah Eco-City
12-- Lux and Client Confidential --
So what are future city technologies?
Future city technologies facilitate the
integrated design of urban infrastructure to
promote economic efficiency, reduce
environmental impact, and foster
sustainable development
13-- Lux and Client Confidential --
So what are future city technologies?
Future city technologies facilitate the
integrated design of urban
infrastructure to promote economic
efficiency, reduce environmental impact,
and foster sustainable development
14-- Lux and Client Confidential --
So what are future city technologies?
Future city technologies facilitate the
integrated design of urban infrastructure to
promote economic
efficiency, reduce environmental
impact, and foster sustainable development
15-- Lux and Client Confidential --
So what are future city technologies?
Future city technologies facilitate the
integrated design of urban infrastructure to
promote economic efficiency, reduce
environmental impact,
and foster sustainable development
16-- Lux and Client Confidential --
So what are future city technologies?
Future city technologies facilitate the
integrated design of urban infrastructure to
promote economic efficiency, reduce
environmental impact, and foster
sustainable
development
17-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Future city technologies facilitate integration across the urban
value chain
Energy Generation
Smart GridEfficient Building
Future City Urban Value Chain
Urban Value Chain
Energy Generation Smart Grid Efficient Building
• Renewable Energy
• Cogeneration & Trigeneration
• District Heating & Cooling
• Vehicle to Grid
• Smart Metering
• Community Energy Storage
• Virtual Power Plants
• Connectivity
• Onsite Power Generation
• Efficient Building Systems
• Sustainable Building Materials
• Smart Lighting
• Smart Equipment and Appliances
Efficient Future City Technology
Domains
18-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Even within Smart Grid and Efficient Building, the landscape of
future city technologies and developers is complex
19-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Agenda
Megatrends present mega challenges for the cities of today
Future cities are emerging, smarter across an array of dimensions
The eight models under which future cities develop
Opportunities aplenty for those who know where to look
20-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Lux Research’s eight models under which future cities develop
Future Cities
Brownfield GreenfieldCategory
21-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Lux Research’s eight models under which future cities develop
Future Cities
Brownfield
Top-down Bottom-up
Greenfield
Top-down Bottom-up
Category
Initiation
22-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Lux Research’s eight models under which future cities develop
Future Cities
Brownfield
Top-down
City drivenConsortium
led
Bottom-up
City drivenConsortium
led
Greenfield
Top-down
City drivenConsortium
led
Bottom-up
City drivenConsortium
led
Singapore Amsterdam Stockholm Smart Grid
City
Masdar Incheon Free
CityNo example PlanIT Valley
Category
Initiation
Leader
23-- Lux and Client Confidential --
An array of future city models has emerged, helping steer
technology companies towards viable channels to market
City Platform
City
City City
Brownfield (Singapore)
Top-down integration
City-centered
Brownfield (Amsterdam)
Top-down integration
Platform-centered
Brownfield (Stockholm)
Organic integration
City-initiated
Brownfield (SmartGridCity)
Organic integration
Company-initiated
City Platform
City
City City
Greenfield (Masdar)
Top-down integration
City-centered
Greenfield (Incheon Free
Economic Zone)
Top-down integration
Platform-centered
Greenfield (No Example)
Organic integration
City-initiated
Greenfield (PlanIT Valley)
Organic integration
Company-initiated
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8
End-user / Energy Consumer Company Technology City/Platform/Government
Brownfield
Greenfield
Top-down,
City driven:
Singapore
Top-down,
Consortium led:
Amsterdam
Bottom-up,
City driven:
Stockholm
Bottom-up,
Consortium led:
Smart Grid City
Top-down,
City driven:
Masdar
Top-down,
Consortium led:
Incheon Free City
Bottom-up,
City driven:
No Example
Top-down,
City driven:
PlanIT Valley
24-- Lux and Client Confidential --
An array of future city models have emerged, which helps steer
technology companies towards viable channels to market
City Platform
City
City City
Brownfield (Singapore)
Top-down integration
City-centered
Brownfield (Amsterdam)
Top-down integration
Platform-centered
Brownfield (Stockholm)
Organic integration
City-initiated
Brownfield (SmartGridCity)
Organic integration
Company-initiated
City Platform
City
City City
Greenfield (Masdar)
Top-down integration
City-centered
Greenfield (Incheon Free
Economic Zone)
Top-down integration
Platform-centered
Greenfield (No Example)
Organic integration
City-initiated
Greenfield (PlanIT Valley)
Organic integration
Company-initiated
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8
End-user / Energy Consumer Company Technology City/Platform/Government
Brownfield
Greenfield
Top-down,
City driven:
Singapore
Top-down,
Consortium led:
Amsterdam
Bottom-up,
City driven:
Stockholm
Bottom-up,
Consortium led:
Smart Grid City
Top-down,
City driven:
Masdar
Top-down,
Consortium led:
Incheon Free City
Bottom-up,
City driven:
No Example
Top-down,
City driven:
PlanIT Valley
25-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Amsterdam’s aggressive goals have made the city a hotbed for
future city technology pilot projects since 2009
Ambitious GHG reduction targets:
• 2015: Reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels
• 2025: Reduce GHG emissions by 40% over 1990 levels
• 2050: Reduce GHG emissions by 80% over 1990 levels
26-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Accenture is Project Manager of the ASC initiative
Complexity behind the models: Amsterdam’s technology,
technology company, and stakeholder ecosystem
Public-Private Partners
Founding Partners
The FoundationAmsterdam Smart City
(ASC)
Amsterdam Innovation
Motor (AIM)
Amsterdam Municipality
European Commission
(EC)
Liander
Private Companies
Top- down,
Consortium led:
Amsterdam
Platform
City
2
End-user / Energy Consumer
Company
City/Platform/Government
Technology
27-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Complexity behind the models: Amsterdam’s Smart City
Initiative - 22 pilot projects since 2009
Sustainable Living
Amsterdam Opent -Engagement Platform
Our Energy -Community Energy Generation Scheme
Smart Metering in Geuzenveld
Apollon Living Lab
Home Energy Mgmt. in West Orange
Energy Management in Haarlem
Sustainable Working
Sustainable Building -De Groene Bocht
Efficient Building Technology in ITO
Tower
De Balie Sustainable Monument Retrofit
Zuidas Solar Powered Office Buildings
Online Monitoring of Municipal Buildings
Smart Challenge for Energy Efficiency
TPX Telepresence
Sustainable Mobility
Ship to Grid for Moored Boats
Moet je Watt - EV Smart Charger
WeGo Car Sharing
EV Parking and Charging Incentives
Sustainable Public Place
Energy Efficient Smart Schools
Green and Sustainable NEMO Science Center
The Climate Street -Stakeholder Engagement
Sun Spots - Public Solar and Wi-Fi Powered
Workstations
Energy Efficient Swimming Pools
28-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Complexity behind the models: Amsterdam’s home energy
management system (HEMS) ecosystem
Amsterdam: HEMS Ecosystem
HEMS
Cisco IBM Onzo
Liander
End user
ASC
Smart
Metering
Quby
PlugwiseWattcher
MunicipalitySustainable Living
Amsterdam Opent -Engagement Platform
Our Energy - Community Energy Generation Scheme
Smart Metering in Geuzenveld
Apollon Living Lab
Home Energy Mgmt. in West Orange
Energy Management in Haarlem
29-- Lux and Client Confidential --
An array of future city models has emerged, helping steer
technology companies towards viable channels to market
City Platform
City
City City
Brownfield (Singapore)
Top-down integration
City-centered
Brownfield (Amsterdam)
Top-down integration
Platform-centered
Brownfield (Stockholm)
Organic integration
City-initiated
Brownfield (SmartGridCity)
Organic integration
Company-initiated
City Platform
City
City City
Greenfield (Masdar)
Top-down integration
City-centered
Greenfield (Incheon Free
Economic Zone)
Top-down integration
Platform-centered
Greenfield (No Example)
Organic integration
City-initiated
Greenfield (PlanIT Valley)
Organic integration
Company-initiated
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8
End-user / Energy Consumer Company Technology City/Platform/Government
Brownfield
Greenfield
Top-down,
City driven:
Singapore
Top-down,
Consortium led:
Amsterdam
Bottom-up,
City driven:
Stockholm
Bottom-up,
Consortium led:
Smart Grid City
Top-down,
City driven:
Masdar
Top-down,
Consortium led:
Incheon Free City
Bottom-up,
City driven:
No Example
Top-down,
City driven:
PlanIT Valley
30-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Masdar future city: Greenfield, top-down, city driven initiative
City Platform
City
City City
Brownfield (Singapore)
Top-down integration
City-centered
Brownfield (Amsterdam)
Top-down integration
Platform-centered
Brownfield (Stockholm)
Organic integration
City-initiated
Brownfield (SmartGridCity)
Organic integration
Company-initiated
City Platform
City
City City
Greenfield (Masdar)
Top-down integration
City-centered
Greenfield (Incheon Free
Economic Zone)
Top-down integration
Platform-centered
Greenfield (No Example)
Organic integration
City-initiated
Greenfield (PlanIT Valley)
Organic integration
Company-initiated
1 2 3 4
5 6 7 8
End-user / Energy Consumer Company Technology City/Platform/Government
Brownfield
Greenfield
Top-down,
City driven:
Singapore
Top-down,
Consortium led:
Amsterdam
Bottom-up,
City driven:
Stockholm
Bottom-up,
Consortium led:
Smart Grid City
Top-down,
City driven:
Masdar
Top-down,
Consortium led:
Incheon Free City
Bottom-up,
City driven:
No Example
Top-down,
City driven:
PlanIT Valley
31-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Masdar’s top-down technology and stakeholder ecosystem
facilitates an integration across the urban value chain
Technology companies & stakeholders Technology silos Central authority
32-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Agenda
Megatrends present mega challenges for the cities of today
Future cities are emerging, smarter across an array of dimensions
The eight models under which future cities develop
Opportunities aplenty for those who know where to look
33-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Change brings opportunity: Future cities will be THE market for
technology companies in the coming decades
70% of the India of 2030 is yet to be built
• Floorspace to increase from 12 billion m2 to 41 billion m2
• Road vehicle numbers to increase from 86 million to 400 million
• GHG emissions to increase 4x if continuing business as usual
- Curtailing 2030 emissions to 2x present will require +$800 billion capital
China building up to 20 new “ghost” cities annually
• 60 to 80 million vacant homes
• To meet urban power demand through 2020 will require +$600 billion capital
Aging infrastructure in the U.S. and Europe
• +$400 billion to replace dated water-related infrastructure in U.S. by 2022
• By 2032, +$40 trillion will be required to retrofit and expand dated urban
infrastructure in Brownfield cities globally
• 30 largest global infrastructure investment funds have raised +$183 billion
34-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Change brings opportunity: Future cities will be THE market for
technology companies in the coming decades
Multi-trillion dollar market across the technology value chain
Urbanization is a megatrend that is shaping corporate strategy and innovation
If you’re not onboard with the Future Cities market – you’re not onboard at all
35-- Lux and Client Confidential --
Thank you!
Ryan Castilloux
Lux Research | EBS Research Content Lead
+31 (0) 20 346 0849
www.luxresearchinc.com