technical investment strategy (tis)€¦ · strategy overview 05.04.2017 2 equities swiss portfolio...

Please find important legal information at the end of this document.5 April 2017, 15:45 CET

Mensur Pocinci, MFTAJeremy Premand

TECHNICAL INVESTMENT STRATEGY (TIS)11% YEAR-TO-DATE GAIN

STRATEGY OVERVIEW

05.04.2017 2

Equities Swiss portfolio is up 11% year-to-date. We take a

closer look.

Spring-cleaning is a good idea for portfolios as we enter spring – we screen large-cap stocks for selling opportunities.

S&P 500 is on track for a new short-term bottom in April – uptrend remains intact.

In the global portfolio we take a minor loss on Nike and buy Western Digital.

In the European portfolio we take minor gains on Hannover Rück and buy Grupo ACS (Spain).

In the APAC portfolio we buy Nitori Holdings and Shimamura, and sell Woori Bank and China Railway Construction.

Fixed Income US high-yield bonds continue to outperform

government bonds.

Commodities Don’t be greedy – wait for the next short-term

peak in crude oil before initiating short positions.

Currencies The British pound requires us to be open minded.

3

STILL OUTPERFORMING Swiss portfolio is printing new highs and

resumes outperforming

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer 05.04.2017

Comments Our Swiss equity portfolio

resumes its outperformance. The main drivers: we are fully

invested and our stock picks have added value.

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

Inde

x

Date

Swiss Portfolio indexedSMI Expanded TR indexed

-25%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17

Rela

tive

perf

orm

ance

Date

Swiss portfolio minus SMI Expanded TotalReturn Indexed

4

11% YEAR-TO-DATE GAIN


Comments Coming into 2017 we were

worried that we might give back the exceptional gains from the previous year.

Nevertheless, this fear seems unfounded until now.

Swiss equity portfolio is up 11% year-to-date

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

114

Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17

Inde

x

Date

Swiss Portfolio indexedSMI Expanded Indexed

-3%

0%

3%

5%

Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17

Rela

tive

perf

orm

ance

Date

Swiss portfolio minus SMI Expanded

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

-120% -100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

Freq

uenc

y

Trade returns (%)

5

BUT…THERE IS A PRICE TO PAYLet profits run – cut losses short


Comments1) Home-runs: We need home-runs

in order to have a chance i.e. stocks making a gain of more than 50%

2) Taking profits too early destroys the chance to outperform

3) Hit ratio is misleading4) A psychologically tough strategy

– in half of the investments, the client loses money

Closes trades Swiss portfolio

Profitable trades

Losing trades

Worst trade -18% Best trade +112%

Mean 5.96% Standard dev. 18.95% Median 1.09% Positive returns 56.37% Minimum -18.4% Maximum 112.4% Nb of trades 204

Swiss portfolio

08 010 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-150

15

600

900

1200

1500

1800

2100

2400

90

100

110

120

130

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr

-4

0

4

2000

2100

2200

2300

2400

1.24

1.26

1.28

6

S&P 500Short-term momentum bottom in April on track –

Key support at 2,300

Momentum

Rel. to MSCI World

Momentum

Rel. to MSCI World


200-day MAV

S&P 500(monthly)

2015 2016 2017

-2000

200400

4000

4500

5000

5500

260

280

7

NASDAQ 100Entering short-term consolidation –medium-term uptrend intact


Momentum

Rel. to MSCI World

Nasdaq 100

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0

8

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

55

60

RUSSELL 2000Relative strength against the S&P 500 is likely to have peaked

Russell 2000(US small-cap stocks)

Momentum

Rel. to S&P 500

2015 2016 2017

-10

0

10

2600

2800

3000

3200

3400

3600

3800

2.0

2.2

2.4

2015 2016 2017

0

10

20850

900

950

1000

1050

1100

1150

1200

1250

x10

6.5

7.0

7.5

8

EUROSTOXX 50Likely to extend further – big test in relative terms

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer

Momentum

Rel. to MSCI World(in US dollar)

EuroStoxx 50

DAX 30Ending consolidation – on track to all-time highs of 2015

DAX 30

Momentum


05.04.2017

2014 2015 2016 2017-10

-5

0

5

7500

8000

8500

9000

9500

4.5

5.0

5.5

9

SMIRetesting 8,550 – will likely consolidate gains into April – larger rebound intact


Momentum


Swiss Market Index (SMI)

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Mar Apr

0

4

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

1400

1450

x10

140

145

SPI mid-caps

SPI MIDDLE COMPANIES

Rel. to Swiss Performance Index (SPI)

Uptrend resuming – new short-term momentum bottom

Momentum

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Mar Apr

0

5

1600

1650

1700

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

x10

0.092

0.096

10

NIKKEI 225Short-term consolidation needs to break above 19,500 or will be downgraded


Momentum

Rel. to MSCI World(in USD)

Nikkei 225 SPI MIDDLE COMPANIES

MSCI EM

Rel. Swiss Performance Index (SPI)

(40-week MAV)

At major resistance – momentum peaking

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

-808

700

800

900

1000

1100

50

60

70

80

Momentum

Rel. to MSCI World(in USD)

MSCI Emerging Markets (EM)

11

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE


Index Last Price

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3S&P 500 INDEX 2360 28 Oct 15 2080 2240 2300 2400 2440 2544

Nasdaq100 5440 21 Oct 15 4600 4680 5200 5500 5650 5800

DAX30 12254 07 Dec 16 10900 11400 11900 12500 12800 13200

Swiss Market Index 8647 14 Dec 16 7650 8200 8550 8750 9000 9500

Euro Stoxx 50 3487 07 Dec 16 2940 3080 3350 3500 3560 3830

NIKKEI 225 18861 20 Jan 16 17200 18200 18800 19500 20850 22230

US dollar Index 100.55 28 Oct 15 93.00 94.10 98.00 103.00 105.00 106.20

Euro / US dollar 1.0664 13 Jul 16 1.0000 1.0200 1.0500 1.0840 1.1000 1.1200

US dollar / Swiss franc 1.0029 28 Oct 15 0.9175 0.9300 0.9640 1.0250 1.0300 1.0480

US dollar / Japanese yen 110.90 02 Nov 16 102.80 106.00 110.50 115.50 119.50 123.00

Euro / Swiss franc 1.0695 17 Aug 16 1.0000 1.0450 1.0590 1.1000 1.1200 1.1350

WTI Crude Oil Future 51.66 15 Mar 17 40.40 43.60 46.50 52.00 56.50 60.00

Gold 1252 04 May 16 1050 1120 1200 1310 1380 1420

US 10YR T-Note Future 124.92 15 Jun 16 119.00 120.15 122.30 132.80 134.20 135.50

German-Bund Future 162.29 06 Jun 16 153.50 156.30 158.50 165.50 168.80 172.00

Data as of: 05/04/2017 11:52

PR= price return

Medium-term Trend Support / Resistance

Rating

12

SECTORS: GLOBAL CURRENCY ADJUSTED


Comments No change.

Sectors

52W 13WEnergy 01 Feb 17 01 Feb 17 22 Jul 15 62 16.0 -6.3

Materials 20 Apr 16 02 Mar 16 01 Mar 17 80 26.5 4.2

Industrials 15 Mar 17 15 Mar 17 16 Nov 16 84 17.2 4.7

Consumer Discretionary 26 Oct 16 23 Nov 16 23 Sep 15 74 11.9 4.3

Consumer Staples 20 Apr 16 20 Apr 16 01 Mar 17 70 2.5 5.8

Healthcare 01 Apr 15 01 Apr 15 18 Nov 15 75 6.4 5.1

Financials 14 Sep 16 16 Nov 16 07 Dec 16 95 24.8 1.1

Information Technology 16 Sep 15 16 Sep 15 16 Nov 16 88 23.7 10.1

Telecom 14 Sep 16 26 Oct 16 20 Apr 16 71 -1.2 -2.1

Utilities 16 Nov 16 10 Aug 16 12 Oct 16 83 3.4 5.5

MSCI World (USD) 80 14.3 3.8

Data as of: 05/04/2017 11:52

Rating % uptrend

% ChangeWorld USA Europe

13

REGIONAL RATINGS: MSCI INDICES

Comments No change.


Region 1

Rating Change 52-week 13-weekAustralia 69 29 Jun 16 8.7 2.9

Canada 95 03 Dec 14 2.2 -4.4

Emerging Asia 91 23 Nov 16 5.3 7.7

Emerging Europe 58 24 Sep 14 -0.4 -2.4

Emerging Latin America 92 21 Dec 16 15.6 7.5

EMU 3 56 08 Jul 15 -0.4 2.6

Hong Kong 1095 14 Dec 16 3.7 7.6

Japan 108 02 Nov 16 3.4 -1.8

Singapore 22 03 Dec 14 -3.7 6.7

Switzerland 61 25 Nov 15 -6.4 1.4

UK 110 08 Jul 15 -5.3 -0.5

USA 119 08 Jul 15 0.5 -0.4Data as of: 05/04/2017 11:521 all indices in US dollar2 Relative to MSCI World3 EMU = Economic and Monetary Union

Price Rating 2 % Return

14

CONCENTRATED PORTFOLIO (PASSIVE)

PortfolioWe track a concentrated portfolio that uses passive instruments to invest (indices) in a theoretical portfolio of USD 1,000,000 as of 18 March 2015. The portfolio is based in US dollars and can be invested 0%-100%. It can invest in indices based on equities, bonds, currencies and alternatives. The portfolio aims for absolute returns and has no benchmark.

Comments No change.


Name Ticker Closing Price

# of shares Value Cost Entry

PriceEntry Date

Stop Loss

PnL%

Nasdaq 100 NDX 5407 25 135'180 109'000 4360 18 Mar 15 3760 24.0%Nasdaq 100 NDX 5407 45 243'324 200'025 4445 21 Oct 15 3760 21.6%Nasdaq 100 NDX 5407 25 135'180 116'240 4650 28 Oct 15 3760 16.3%Nasdaq 100 NDX 5407 35 189'252 151'025 4315 2 Mar 16 3760 25.3%NYSE Arca Biotech BTK 3536 40 141'423 116'155 2904 23 Mar 16 2400 21.8%Philadelphia Semicond. Index SOX 1009 150 151'346 116'505 777 27 Jul 16 645 29.9%MSCI Turkey M3TR 357 440 157'016 144'667 329 1 Feb 17 280 8.5%

Portfolio SummaryPositionsCashTotal Portfolio ValueData as of: 29/03/2017 14:45

1'152'722 9'309

1'162'031

2000 2010 2020

050

100150

250

500

750

1000

1250

0.0%

61.8%

100.0%

0.25

0.50

0.75

15

CONCENTRATED PORTFOLIO (PASSIVE)SOX and Nasdaq 100


SOX(Semiconductor index)

Rel. to MSCI World

Momentum

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0

1000

2000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

150

200

250

300

Momentum

Rel. to MSCI World

Nasdaq 100

2015 2016 2017

-100

1020

300

350

400

450

500

550

0.20

0.25

0.30

2015 2016 2017

-100

10

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

180

200

220

240

16

CONCENTRATED PORTFOLIO (PASSIVE)MSCI Turkey and New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) Biotech


Momentum

NYSE Arca Biotechnology Index

(weekly bar chart)

Momentum

MSCI Turkey(in US dollar)

Rel. to MSCI World

Rel. to MSCI World

17

GLOBAL EQUITIES − PORTFOLIO

Portfolio We track our investment recommendations in a theoretical portfolio of USD 1,000,000 as of 21 November 2011. A position can have a weight of 5%. The overall portfolio can be invested from 0% to 100% in equities. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the recommendation.


Comments We recommend buying Western

Digital.

Please note that last week’s table had an error in the position of Cigna, showing a position that is too big that impacted the total value of the portfolio.

We have corrected this mistake.


# of shares Value Entry

PriceEntry Date Stop Loss PnL

%Facebook FB US 141.73 430 60'944 103.99 28 Oct 15 94.00 36.3%Broadcom AVGO US 218.96 300 65'688 129.25 17 Feb 16 129.00 69.4%Celgene CELG US 124.77 380 47'441 105.2 2 Mar 16 85.00 18.6%Amazon.com AMZN US 907 70 63'478 574 16 Mar 16 550 57.9%Cintas CTAS US 124.84 430 53'681 93.81 25 May 16 80.30 33.1%Apple AAPL US 144.77 410 59'356 98.59 25 May 16 85.00 46.8%Intuit INTU US 116.03 400 46'412 106.53 1 Jun 16 94.00 8.9%LAM Research LRCX US 128.89 500 64'445 82.68 1 Jun 16 72.60 55.9%Electronic Arts EA US 89.28 420 37'498 78.51 13 Jul 16 68.00 13.7%Home Depot HD US 146.34 290 42'439 136.9 20 Jul 16 118.00 6.9%Alphabet A GOOGL US 852.57 50 42'629 794.63 3 Aug 16 675 7.3%Fiserv FISV US 115.38 450 51'921 103.445 24 Aug 16 87.00 11.5%Visa V US 88.78 580 51'492 80.74 24 Aug 16 69.00 10.0%Netflix NFLX 145.5 475 69'113 98.88 7 Sep 16 80.00 47.1%Texas Instrument TXN US 80.6 550 44'330 69.215 21 Sep 16 58.00 16.4%Hasbro HAS US 97.85 520 50'882 77.93 23 Nov 16 73.00 25.6%Micron Technology MU US 28.59 2000 57'180 19.41 7 Dec 16 16.00 47.3%Amgen AMGN US 164.36 230 37'803 149.00 14 Dec 16 125.00 10.3%Citrix Systems * CTXS US 83.30 500 41'650 74.83 21 Dec 16 59.72 11.3%Adobe Systems ADBE US 130.04 390 50'716 108.96 18 Jan 17 85.00 19.3%Alibaba BABA US 107.52 350 37'632 103.00 25 Jan 17 80.00 4.4%Hartford Financial Serv. HIG US 47.91 800 38'328 49.73 1 Mar 17 38.00 -3.7%Cigna CI US 150.54 260 39'140 151.79 1 Mar 17 120.00 -0.8%Global Payments GPN US 78.35 500 39'175 80.94 8 Mar 17 65.00 -3.2%Domino's Pizza DPZ US 186.36 210 39'136 170.45 25 Jan 17 140.00 9.3%Citigroup C US 59.68 630 37'598 61.39 15 Mar 17 50.00 -2.8%XL Group XL US 39.72 950 37'734 40.15 15 Mar 17 33.00 -1.1%Microsoft MSFT US 65.73 610 40'095 65.24 29 Mar 17 54.00 0.8%Tesla TSLA US 303.70 140 42'518 279.00 29 Mar 17 200 8.9%Western Digital WDC US 82.99 5 Apr 17 67

* increased by 120 shares on Feb 22, 2017

Portfolio SummaryPositionsCashTot Portfolio ValueData as of: 05/04/2017 12:25

1'431'733 10'920

1'442'653

18

GLOBAL EQUITIES − PORTFOLIO

Portfolio We track our investment recommendations in a theoretical portfolio of USD 1,000,000 as of 21 November 2011. A position can have a weight of 5%. The overall portfolio can be invested from 0% to 100% in equities. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the recommendation.


Comments We recommend selling Nike. Name Ticker Closing

Price# of

shares Value Entry Price

Entry Date Stop Loss % PnL

NIKE NKE US 55.04 750 41'280 57.48 22 Feb 17 48.00 -4.2%Data as of: 05/04/2017 12:25

Stocks to sell

2014 2015 2016 2017

0

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2

4

6

19

GLOBAL PORTFOLIO BUYWestern Digital


Momentum

Western Digital

Rel. to MSCI World

2014 2015 2016 2017

-100

10

60

70

80

90

100

110

1200.04

0.05

0.06

20

SPRING-CLEAN US STOCKSSELL

Schlumberger


Momentum

Schlumberger

BUYWestern Digital

2014 2015 2016 2017

0

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2

4

6

Momentum

Western Digital

Rel. to MSCI WorldRel. to MSCI World

2014 2015 2016 2017

-10

0

10

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

21

SPRING-CLEAN US STOCKSSELL

Exxon Mobil


Momentum

Exxon Mobil

BUYMicrosoft

2014 2015 2016 2017 2-10

01020

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

0.02

0.03

0.03

Momentum

Microsoft

Rel. to MSCI WorldRel. to MSCI World

22

EUROPEAN PORTFOLIO

Comments We recommend buying:

- Grupo ACS

PortfolioWe track our investment recommendations ina theoretical portfolio of EUR 1,000,000 as of 1 April 2015. A position can have a weight of 5%. The overall portfolio can be invested from 0% to 100% in equities. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the recommendation.

05.04.2017Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Julius Baer

Currency Entry Now Change1=EURCHF 1.0900 1.0707 1.8%2=EURSEK 9.5515 9.5693 -0.2%3=EURCHF 1.0754 1.0707 0.4%4=EURCHF 1.0701 1.0707 -0.1%5=EURCHF 1.0711 1.0707 0.0%5=EURCHF 1.0711 1.0707 0.0%6=EURDKK 7.4372 7.4352 0.0%7=EURCHF 1.0634 1.0707 -0.7%8=EURCHF 1.0648 1.0707 -0.6%

Data as of: 05/04/2017 14:47

Currencies



PriceEntry Date

Stop Loss

PnL%

Actelion 1 +Div ATLN VX 195.00 240 43'729 28'892 134.90 09 Sep 15 130 51%Adidas +Div ADS GY 176.75 380 67'165 29'222 78.50 21 Oct 15 139 130%ASML Holding ASML NA 122.85 300 36'855 29'310 97.70 20 Jul 16 80 26%Trelleborg 2 TRELB SS 194.00 1800 36'529 36'560 163.30 31 Aug 16 134 0%Merck KGaA MRK GY 106.45 290 30'871 28'640 98.76 19 Oct 16 78 8%Novartis 3 +Div NOVN VX 74.40 410 28'502 26'398 72.00 09 Nov 16 62 8%Roche 3 +Div ROG VX 257.00 130 31'218 27'545 236.10 09 Nov 16 200 13%MTU Aero Engines MTX GR 123.60 200 24'720 19'024 95.12 16 Nov 16 75 30%Ryanair RYA ID 14.82 1400 20'741 19'579 13.99 16 Nov 16 11 6%LVMH +Div MC FP 205.05 180 36'909 29'799 166.95 23 Nov 16 135 24%Hermes +Div RMS FP 444 80 35'540 31'160 391 30 Nov 16 315 14%Swatch Group 4 UHR VX 351.50 120 39'412 35'806 319.30 21 Dec 16 240 10%Plastic Omnium POM FP 34.05 1150 39'158 36'725 31.94 11 Jan 17 25 7%Richemont 5 CFR VX 77.85 550 40'008 36'560 71.20 11 Jan 17 60 9%ams 5 AMS SW 58.10 1100 59'716 33'173 32.30 18 Jan 17 26 80%Arkema AKE FP 93.41 340 31'759 32'191 94.68 25 Jan 17 75 -1%Ströer SAX GY 51.06 700 35'742 32'095 45.85 25 Jan 17 35 11%Kion Group KGX GY 61.81 570 35'232 32'234 56.55 25 Jan 17 46 9%Genmab 6 GEN DC 1262 190 32'241 34'617 1355 01 Feb 17 1100 -7%Zalando ZAL GY 39.09 926 36'204 34'000 36.71 01 Feb 17 30 6%Partners Group 7 PGHN SW 555.00 60 31'115 29'142 516.50 08 Feb 17 430 7%Infineon Technologies IFX GY 19.00 1650 31'350 28'611 17.34 22 Feb 17 14 10%Michelin ML FP 112.90 260 29'354 27'742 106.70 22 Feb 17 90 6%Sanofi SAN FP 85.33 350 29'866 28'028 80.08 22 Feb 17 66 7%Fischer (Georg) 8 FI/N SW 909.00 35 29'727 29'435 896 01 Mar 17 690 1%Qiagen QIA GY 26.62 1400 37'261 39'382 28.13 15 Mar 17 22 -5%Societe Generale GLE FP 45.98 650 29'884 30'404 46.78 29 Mar 17 39 -2%Atlantia ATL IM 24.37 1250 30'463 30'000 24.00 29 Mar 17 20 2%Relx REN NA 17.47 1800 31'437 31'005 17.23 29 Mar 17 14 1%Grupo ACS ACS SM 32.80 05 Apr 17 26 +Div dividends paid - adjusted in value

Portfolio SummaryPositions 1'056'264 Cash 12'399 Total Portfolio Value 1'068'663 Data as of: 05/04/2017 15:09

23

EUROPEAN PORTFOLIO

Comments We recommend selling:

- Hannover Rück

PortfolioWe track our investment recommendations ina theoretical portfolio of EUR 1,000,000 as of 1 April 2015. A position can have a weight of 5%. The overall portfolio can be invested from 0% to 100% in equities. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the recommendation.




PriceEntry Date

Stop Loss

PnL%

Hannover Rueck HNR1 GY 108.40 310 33'604 32'163 103.75 07 Dec 16 84 4%Data as of: 05/04/2017 12:25

stocks to sell

2010 2020

-200

204060

10

20

30

40

50

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

24

EUROPEAN PORTFOLIO BUYGrupo ACS


Momentum

Grupo ACS

Rel. to Stoxx 600

2010

0

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2014 2015 2016 2017-20-10

01020

300

350

400

450

500

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.31.4

25

SPRING-CLEAN EUROPEAN STOCKSSELL

BP


Momentum

Relx

Momentum

BP

Rel. to Stoxx 600Rel. to Stoxx 600

BUYRelx

2010

0

10

15

20

25

4

5

6

7

2015 2016 2017

0

10

20

25

30

5.56.06.57.07.58.08.5

26

SPRING-CLEAN EUROPEAN STOCKSSELL

Royal Dutch


Momentum

Atlantia

Momentum

Royal Dutch

Rel. to Stoxx 600Rel. to Stoxx 600

BUYAtlantia

27

SWISS PORTFOLIO

Comments No change.

PortfolioWe track our investment recommendations in a theoretical portfolio of CHF 1,000,000 as of 17 July 2013. A position can have a weight of 6.6%. The overall portfolio can be invested from 0% to 100% in equities. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the recommendation.




PriceEntry Date Stop Loss PnL

%Straumann +Div STMN SW 458 220 101'585 55'825 258 01 Apr 15 340 82.0%Actelion +Div +Div ATLN VX 284 480 136'128 63'852 134.90 09 Sep 15 130.00 113.2%Logitech +Div LOGN SW 32 2600 82'550 39'488 16.00 13 Jul 16 13.50 109.0%SIKA SIK VX 6075 15 91'125 64'755 4317 20 Jul 16 3600 40.7%dormakaba +Div DOKA SW 797 120 95'580 80'760 685 22 Jun 16 577 18.4%Novartis * +Div NOVN VX 74.45 800 59'560 55'275 71.8 09 Nov 16 62 7.8%Roche * +Div ROG VX 257 240 61'632 54'652 236 09 Nov 16 200 12.8%Vontobel * VONN SW 57.85 1030 59'586 52'710 51.17 16 Nov 16 40 13.0%Cembra Money Bank * CMBN SW 84.10 770 64'757 57'722 74.96 07 Dec 16 60 12.2%DKSH * +Div DKSH SW 78.20 770 60'214 52'723 71.47 07 Dec 16 55 14.2%Swatch Group * UHR VX 351.70 160 56'272 51'449 321.6 21 Dec 16 240 9.4%Flughafen Zuerich FHZN SW 213.90 350 74'865 68'880 196.8 11 Jan 17 160 8.7%Richemont CFR VX 77.55 950 73'673 67'640 71.2 11 Jan 17 55 8.9%ams AMS SW 58.50 1800 105'300 58'140 32.3 18 Jan 17 26 81.1%Lonza LONN VX 188.70 300 56'610 55'620 185.4 25 Jan 17 150 1.8%Swiss Re SREN VX 89.65 610 54'687 57'371 94.1 25 Jan 17 77 -4.7%Partners Group PGHN SW 553 100 55'250 51'650 517 08 Feb 17 430 7.0%Fischer (Georg) FI/N SW 909 65 59'053 58'500 900 01 Mar 17 690 0.9%Geberit GEBN VX 427 135 57'618 59'495 441 01 Mar 17 340 -3.2%GAM GAM SW 12 5100 62'985 60'435 11.9 29 Mar 17 10 4.2%Temenos TEMN SW 80 800 63'800 63'560 79.5 29 Mar 17 65 0.4%

* Entry price is an average of the price at entry date and the date of exposure increased (January 25, 2017) +Div dividends paid - adjusted in value

Portfolio SummaryPositions 1'532'828 Cash 11'827 Tot Portfolio Value 1'544'655 Data as of: 05/04/2017 12:25

2014 2015 2016 2017

0

10

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

15

20

28

SPRING-CLEAN SWISS STOCKSSELL

Givaudan


Momentum

Givaudan

Rel. to SPI

BUYGam Holding

2015 2016 2017-20-10

01020

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

0.10

0.15

0.20

Momentum

GAM Holding

Rel. to SPI

2014 2015 2016 2017

0102030

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0.10

0.15

0.20

2014 2015 2016 2017

-100

1020

12

14

16

18

20

22

0.15

0.20

29

SPRING-CLEAN SWISS STOCKSSELLUBS


Momentum

UBS

Rel. to SPI

BUYTemenos

2905/04/2017

Momentum

Temenos

Rel. to SPI

30

APAC EQUITIES PORTFOLIO: MEDIUM-TERM

PortfolioWe track our investment recommendations in a theoretical portfolio of USD 1,000,000 as of 16 July 2014. A position can have a weight of 5%. The overall portfolio can be invested from 0% to 100% in equities. Small markets will be covered with index investments. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the recommendation.

Comments We recommend buying: Nitori

Holdings and Shimamura


CurrenciesCurrency Entry Now Change1=JPY 105.80 111.19 -4.85%2=JPY 100.50 111.19 -9.61%3=JPY 103.43 111.19 -6.98%4=JPY 103.21 111.19 -7.18%5=TWD 31.57 30.40 3.86%6=JPY 104.50 111.19 -6.02%7=HKD 7.757 7.7689 -0.15%8=JPY 109.26 111.19 -1.74%9=HKD 7.7560 7.7689 -0.17%10=HKD 7.7560 7.7689 -0.17%11=THB 35.23 34.53 2.02%12=HKD 7.7578 7.7689 -0.14%13=HKD 7.7600 7.7689 -0.11%14=HKD 7.7602 7.7689 -0.11%15=JPY 110.90 111.19 -0.26%16=HKD 7.7692 7.7689 0.00%Data as of: 05/04/2017 14:47


# of shares Value Cost Entry Price Entry

Date Stop Loss PnL%

Taiwan Semiconductor (ADR) +Div TSM US 32.86 2'240 73'606 53'282 24.53 2 Mar 16 20.40 38%Keyence 1 +Div 6861 JP 44980 100 40'555 34'854 36945 28 Jul 16 31400 16%Softbank 2 +Div +Div 9984 JP 7960 500 35'885 32'906 6656 25 May 16 5590 9%Murata Manufacturing 3 +Div +Div 6981 JT 15580 200 28'095 26'848 14100 1 Sep 16 10700 5%Suzuki Motor 3 +Div +Div 7269 JT 4576 900 37'133 29'557 3430 1 Sep 16 2600 26%Nitto Denko 3 +Div +Div 6988 JT 8500 400 30'655 26'697 7050 1 Sep 16 5680 15%Furukawa Electric 4 +Div 5801 JP 4210 1'100 41'755 31'034 2949 20 Oct 16 2460 35%Fujikura 5 +Div 5803 JP 796 4'900 35'167 29'879 634 20 Oct 16 510 18%Hon Hai Precision Industry 5 2317 TT 98.00 14'000 45'138 38'093 85.90 27 Oct 16 66 18%Sekisui Chemical 6 +Div 4204 JP 1814 2'500 40'889 37'248 1572 27 Oct 16 1280 10%Amada Holdings 6 +Div 6113 JP 1281 3'300 38'115 36'855 1184 27 Oct 16 965 3%CSPC Pharmaceutical Group 7 1093 HK 10.22 36'000 47'354 37'730 8.13 27 Oct 16 6.55 26%JFE Holdings 8 +Div 5411 JP 1846 2'700 44'939 39'226 1607 17 Nov 16 1300 15%Fuji Heavy Industries 8 +Div 7270 JP 3967 1'000 35'768 38'900 4321 17 Nov 16 3500 -8%Tencent Holdings 9 700 HK 228.80 1'600 47'118 41'217 201.00 12 Jan 17 160.00 14%Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical 10 2196 HK 28.95 11'500 42'850 37'513 25.30 19 Jan 17 20.00 14%AAC Technonlogies Holdings 10 2018 HK 91.70 3'800 44'850 37'971 77.50 19 Jan 17 63.00 18%HDFC Bank HDB US 76.01 750 57'008 51'607 68.81 26 Jan 17 55.00 10%Airports of Thailand 11 AOT-R TB 39.50 45'000 52'385 51'350 40.20 26 Jan 17 33.00 2%Weichai Power 12 2338 HK 13.82 28'000 49'805 50'530 14.00 26 Jan 17 11.50 -1%Galaxy Entertainment Group 13 +Div 27 HK 43.40 6'200 34'633 29'794 37.55 16 Feb 17 31.00 16%Kunlun Energy 14 135 HK 7.88 33'800 34'281 30'010 6.89 23 Feb 17 5.50 14%New Oriental Educ & Tech ADR EDU US 60.69 550 33'380 28'083 51.06 8 Mar 17 40.00 19%KDDI 15 9433 JP 2926 1'200 31'658 31'884 2996 30 Mar 17 2450 -1%Olympus 15 7733 JP 4225 780 29'713 29'709 4300 30 Mar 17 3600 0%Brilliance China Automotive 16 1114 HK 13.64 18'000 31'600 30'351 13.10 30 Mar 17 10.50 4%Nitori Holdings 9843 JP 14610 5 Apr 17 12000Shimamura 8227 JP 15660 5 Apr 17 13000

ADR = American Depositary Receipt

Portfolio SummaryPositions 1'124'779 Cash 62'224 Total Portfolio Value 1'187'003Data as of: 05/04/2017 12:25

31

APAC EQUITIES PORTFOLIO: MEDIUM-TERM

PortfolioWe track our investment recommendations in a theoretical portfolio of USD 1,000,000 as of 16 July 2014. A position can have a weight of 5%. The overall portfolio can be invested from 0% to 100% in equities. Small markets will be covered with index investments. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the recommendation.

Comments We recommend selling:

- Woori Bank- China Railway Construction


Stocks to sell


# of shares Value Cost Entry Price Entry

Date Stop Loss PnL%

Woori Bank WF US 35.23 870 30'650 30'024 34.51 1 Feb 17 28.00 2%China Railway Construction 14 1186 HK 11.46 20'200 29'795 29'935 11.50 23 Feb 17 9.50 0%

Data as of: 05/04/2017 12:25

2015 2016 2017 201

0

20

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

800

1000

1200

2014 2015 2016 2017

0

20

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

400

600

800

1000

32

APAC PORTFOLIO BUYNitori Holdings and Shimamura


Momentum

Shimamura(in US dollar)

Rel. to MSCI APAC

Momentum

Nitori Holdings(in US dollar)

Rel. to MSCI APAC

33

US LAGGARDS PORTFOLIO 2016/2017

PortfolioWe track a portfolio of global laggards we buy in November and hold for 12 months with a starting portfolio of USD 1,000,000 as of 19 November 2014. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the recommendation.


Comments No change.


# of shares

Value Cost Entry Price Entry Date

PnL%

Abbott Laboratories ABT US 44.18 1310 57'876 52'007 39.70 14 Dec 16 11.3%Allergan AGN US 238.43 270 64'376 51'651 191.30 14 Dec 16 24.6%Ametek AME US 53.76 1040 55'910 52'260 50.25 14 Dec 16 7.0%Bed Bath & Beyond BBBY US 38.98 1100 42'878 52'217 47.47 14 Dec 16 -17.9%Biogen BIIB US 274.24 180 49'363 52'078 289.32 14 Dec 16 -5.2%Borgwarner +Div BWA US 38.69 1320 51'071 51'995 39.53 14 Dec 16 -1.8%Cardinal Health CAH US 80.42 710 57'098 52'292 73.65 14 Dec 16 9.2%Estee Lauder EL US E 85.06 660 56'140 52'219 79.12 14 Dec 16 7.5%Gilead Sciences GILD US 66.98 690 46'216 52'381 75.92 14 Dec 16 -11.8%Gap GPS US 23.19 2030 47'076 52'151 25.69 14 Dec 16 -9.7%Lennar Corp LEN US 50.64 1160 58'742 52'061 44.88 14 Dec 16 12.8%Nike NKE US 55.04 1000 55'040 52'330 52.33 14 Dec 16 5.2%Patterson PDCO US 44.96 1290 57'998 52'310 40.55 14 Dec 16 10.9%PPG Industries PPG US 104.77 540 56'576 52'618 97.44 14 Dec 16 7.5%Signet Jewelers SIG US 66.22 550 36'421 52'564 95.57 14 Dec 16 -30.7%Skyworks Solutions SWKS US 99.35 680 67'558 52'142 76.68 14 Dec 16 29.6%Thermo Fisher Scientific TMO US 152.72 360 54'979 52'492 145.81 14 Dec 16 4.7%VF Corp VFC US 53.94 930 50'164 52'229 56.16 14 Dec 16 -4.0%Waters Corp WAT US 154.83 370 57'287 51'619 139.51 14 Dec 16 11.0%Walgreens Boots Alliance WBA US 82.50 590 48'675 51'814 87.82 14 Dec 16 -6.1%

Portfolio SummaryPositionsCashTtl. Portfolio Value

Data as of: 05/04/2017 12:25

1'071'445 1'262

1'072'707

34

GLOBAL LAGGARDS PORTFOLIO 2016/2017

PortfolioWe track a portfolio of global laggards we buy in November and hold for twelve months with a starting portfolio of USD 1,000,000 as of 19 November 2014. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the recommendation.


Comments No change.


# of shares

Value Cost Entry Price Entry Date PnL%

Abbott Laboratories +Div ABT US 44.18 1270 56'109 50'082 39.70 14 Dec 16 12.0%Akzo Nobel 1 AKZA NA 77.80 800 66'382 50'502 59.27 14 Dec 16 31.4%Alfa Laval 3 ALFA SS 171.90 3120 59'747 50'316 147.60 14 Dec 16 18.7%Allergan +Div AGN US 238 260 61'992 49'556 191 14 Dec 16 25.1%Associated British Foods 2 ABF LN 2557 1450 46'270 50'410 2735 14 Dec 16 -8.2%Bayer 1 BAYN GR 107.60 490 56'233 50'086 95.97 14 Dec 16 12.3%Biogen BIIB US 274.24 180 49'363 47'969 266.49 14 Dec 16 2.9%Bioverativ BIVV US 54.75 90 4'928 - 44.98 2 Feb 17 -Cardinal Health +Div CAH US 80.42 690 55'490 50'129 73.65 14 Dec 16 10.7%China Mobile 941 HK 86.75 610 52'918 49'837 81.70 14 Dec 16 6.2%Estee Lauder +Div EL US 85.06 630 53'588 49'631 79.12 14 Dec 16 8.0%Gilead Sciences +Div GILD US 66.98 664 44'468 50'055 75.92 14 Dec 16 -11.2%Hennes & Mauritz 3 HMB SS 221.80 1690 41'758 50'317 272.50 14 Dec 16 -17.0%Nike +Div NKE US 55.04 960 52'838 50'064 52.33 14 Dec 16 5.5%Novartis 4 +Div NOVN VX 74.45 700 51'980 48'220 72.25 14 Dec 16 7.8%Renault 1 RNO FP 79.52 570 48'343 50'188 82.67 14 Dec 16 -3.7%Roche 4 +Div ROG VX 256.80 220 56'349 48'783 231.50 14 Dec 16 15.5%Ryanair 1 RYA ID 14.67 3270 51'146 50'396 14.47 14 Dec 16 1.5%Signet Jewelers +Div SIG US 66.22 520 34'434 49'561 95.57 14 Dec 16 -30.5%Telecom Italia 1 TIT IM 0.8150 62000 53'893 50'318 0.7620 14 Dec 16 7.1%UBS 4 UBSG VX 15.77 3050 47'974 50'234 16.62 14 Dec 16 -4.5%

Portfolio Summary CurrenciesPositions Currency Entry Now ChangeCash 1=USDEUR 0.9389 0.9376 0.1%Ttl. Portfolio Value 2=USDGBp 0.7867 0.8013 -1.8%

Data as of: 05/04/2017 12:25 3=USDSEK 9.1524 8.9766 2.0%4=USDCHF 1.0091 1.0026 0.6%

1'046'203 7'088

1'053'291

35

APAC LAGGARDS − PORTFOLIO

PortfolioWe track a portfolio of Asian equity laggards we buy in February and hold for 12 months with a starting portfolio of USD 1,000,000 as of 1 February 2017. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the recommendation.


Comments No change.


# of shares

Value Cost Entry Price Entry Date

PnL%

Kia Motors 1 000270 KS 35950 1600 51'177 50'703 36500 2 Jan 17 0.9%Samsung Fire & Marine 1 000810 KS 266500 210 49'793 48'771 267500 2 Jan 17 2.1%Amorepacific Group 1 002790 KS 123000 440 48'152 49'661 130000 2 Jan 17 -3.0%LG 1 003550 KS 68200 900 54'611 49'071 62800 2 Jan 17 11.3%Coway 1 021240 KS 96200 650 55'634 49'266 87300 2 Jan 17 12.9%Kangwon Land 1 035250 KS 37250 1700 56'341 50'404 34150 2 Jan 17 11.8%LG Household & Health Care 1 051900 KS 794000 70 49'451 52'084 857000 2 Jan 17 -5.1%Hyundai Glovis 1 086280 KS 141000 370 46'417 49'792 155000 2 Jan 17 -6.8%Cheung Kong Infrastructure 2 1038 HK 62.35 6300 50'557 50'705 62.45 2 Jan 17 -0.3%Uni-President Entreprises 3 1216 TT 58.20 30000 57'442 50'378 52.40 2 Jan 17 14.0%Swire Pacific 2 19 HK 78.85 4900 49'728 49'920 79.05 2 Jan 17 -0.4%Meiji Holdings* 4 2269 JP 9580 650 56'145 50'158 8780 2 Jan 17 11.9%Picc Property & Casualty 2 2328 HK 12.04 33000 51'138 50'015 11.76 2 Jan 17 2.2%Kikkoman* 4 2801 JP 3370 1560 47'401 49'564 3615 2 Jan 17 -4.4%Japan Tobacco* 4 2914 JP 3665 1560 51'550 49'783 3631 2 Jan 17 3.5%Kao* 4 4452 JP 6145 1000 55'405 49'227 5601 2 Jan 17 12.6%Takeda Pharmaceutical* 4 4502 JP 5291 1100 52'476 46'695 4830 2 Jan 17 12.4%Eisai* 4 4523 JP 5839 910 47'908 49'827 6230 2 Jan 17 -3.9%Dongfeng Motor 2 489 HK 8.74 47000 52'871 50'093 8.27 2 Jan 17 5.5%Caltex Australia 5 CTX AU 29.65 2350 52'754 50'549 28.46 2 Jan 17 4.4%* Currency hedge

Portfolio Summary CurrenciesPositions Currency Entry Now ChangeCash 1=USDKRW 1152 1124 2.5%Ttl. Portfolio Value 2=USDHKD 7.759 7.770 -0.1%

Data as of: 05/04/2017 12:25 3=USDTWD 31.20 30.40 2.7%4=USDJPY 113.78 110.91 2.6%5=USDAUD 1.323 1.321 0.2%

1'036'950 3'333

1'040'283

36

US OVERSOLD PORTFOLIO (SHORT-TERM)

PortfolioWe track a portfolio buying oversold large-cap stocks with a starting portfolio of USD 1,000,000 as of 3 September 2012, which is rebalanced once a month. A position has a weight of 6.67%. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the recommendation.

Comments No change.




PriceEntry Date

Stop Loss

PnL%

Altria MO US 71.95 1350 97'133 98'469 73 29 Mar 17 60 -1.4%Amgen AMGN US 164.4 600 98'616 99'102 165 29 Mar 17 135 -0.5%Biogen BIIB US 274.2 370 101'469 100'178 271 29 Mar 17 220 1.3%Clorox CLX US 134.7 730 98'353 99'871 137 29 Mar 17 110 -1.5%General Mills GIS US 58.38 1680 98'078 99'725 59 29 Mar 17 48 -1.7%Gilead Sciences GILD US 66.98 1480 99'130 99'523 67 29 Mar 17 55 -0.4%Incyte INCY US 141.6 700 99'085 97'461 139 29 Mar 17 115 1.7%Intuit INTU US 116.0 850 98'626 99'926 118 29 Mar 17 95 -1.3%Kellogg K US 72.27 1370 99'010 99'640 73 29 Mar 17 60 -0.6%McCormick & Co MKC US 98.42 1020 100'388 99'899 98 29 Mar 17 80 0.5%O'Reilly Automotive ORLY US 255.5 360 91'984 98'039 272 29 Mar 17 220 -6.2%Paychex PAYX US 58.06 1650 95'799 98'918 60 29 Mar 17 50 -3.2%Robert Half RHI US 45.96 2090 96'056 99'254 47 29 Mar 17 38 -3.2%S&P Global SPGI US 128.8 780 100'480 100'144 128 29 Mar 17 105 0.3%Tractor Supply Company TSCO US 68.99 1450 100'036 103'900 71.66 1 Mar 17 51 -3.7%


37

EU OVERSOLD PORTFOLIO (SHORT-TERM)

PortfolioWe track a portfolio buying oversold large-cap stocks with a starting portfolio of EUR 1,000,000 as of 30 March 2016, which is rebalanced once a month. A position has a weight of 6.67%. % PnL (profit and loss) shows the price return as a percentage of the recommendation.

Comments No change.




PriceEntry Date

Stop Loss

PnL%

3I Group Plc 1 III LN 717.0 10'000 83'850 82'507 708 1 Mar 17 500 1.6%Ashtead 2 AHT LN 1604 4'300 80'660 81'048 1630 29 Mar 17 1300 -0.5%Bilfinger GBF GR 35.95 2'300 82'674 81'800 36 29 Mar 17 29 1.1%BT 2 BT/A LN 324.3 21'500 81'527 80'364 323 29 Mar 17 260 1.4%Burberry 2 BRBY LN 1735 4'000 81'160 80'574 1742 29 Mar 17 1400 0.7%DS Smith 2 SMDS LN 434.0 16'000 81'207 80'870 437 29 Mar 17 350 0.4%Electrolux 3 ELUXB SS 237.0 3'300 81'699 81'822 237 29 Mar 17 190 -0.2%Euronext ENX FP 39.79 2'000 79'580 80'250 40 29 Mar 17 33 -0.8%Givaudan 4 GIVN VX 1790 50 83'686 83'108 1780 29 Mar 17 1450 0.7%GN Store Nord 5 GN DC 160.8 3'700 80'012 80'167 161 29 Mar 17 130 -0.2%Imi 2 IMI LN 1228 5'700 81'857 81'071 1230 29 Mar 17 990 1.0%International Cons. Airlines 2 IAG LN 535.0 13'200 82'587 80'516 528 29 Mar 17 440 2.6%JM AB 3 JM SS 277.4 2'800 81'137 82'391 282 29 Mar 17 230 -1.5%Skanska 3 +Div SKAB SS 208.0 3'700 80'393 77'486 209 29 Mar 17 170 3.8%Smurfit Kappa SKG ID 24.55 3'300 81'015 80'685 24 29 Mar 17 20 0.4%


CurrenciesCurrency Entry Now Change

1=EURGBP 0.8575 0.8551 0.3%2=EURGBP 0.8648 0.8551 1.1%3=EURSEK 9.5666 9.5730 -0.1%4=EURCHF 1.0709 1.0695 0.1%5=EURDKK 7.4400 7.4359 0.1%

Data as of: 05/04/2017 12:25

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 22

3

4

1000

1500

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.6

FIXED INCOME: US HIGH YIELDNot bad –

But not the place to be

05.04.2017 38

Comments US high-yield bonds are almost

back to a new all-time high after their short-term dip in March.

Nevertheless, the long-term picture still only favours high yield over government bonds, but they are losing against equities.

Rel. to US Treasury 7-10yr

Barcap US high yield

Rel. to Nasdaq100

Rel. to S&P500

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

-250

0

250

500

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

CURRENCIES: BRITISH POUND Stay open minded


Comments Most of the time it is a question

of reversal or pause when looking at long-term charts.

The GBP/EUR has been in a volatile consolidation phase since the Brexit vote.

Medium-term momentum bottomed in December 2016, but price feedback has been muted.

Thus, in order to see a 2014 replay we would require GBP/EUR to break above 1.18.

Momentum

GBP/EUR(55-week moving average)

2014 2015 2016 2017

0

5

80

90

100

May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May

0

80

160

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

US DOLLAR INDEXShort-term momentum already bottoming –

wait for break of 102

Momentum

Momentum

US dollar index

4005.04.2017

US dollar index


41

EUR/USDFailed at 1.0840 and momentum peak –watch for re-test of 1.05


USD/CHFNeeds more time to break 1.02

2015 2016 2017

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

Momentum

EUR/USD

2015 2016 2017

-2

0

2

4

6

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

USD/CHF

Momentum

2015 2016 2017

-5

0

5

10

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

42

USD/JPY


Still looking for a medium-term momentum bottom if above 110

2015 2016 2017

-4

0

4

8

12

100

105

110

115

120

125

Momentum

USD/JPY

USD/CAD

Momentum

USD/CAD

Recovery remains intact – stay long –key support at 1.30

CURRENCY PORTFOLIO

43

Comments The long position in the ZAR/JPY

was stopped out with a loss of 6.9%.


Currency Ticker Position Price Entry Date

Entry Price Stop Loss PnL

%US dollar / Swiss franc USDCHF LONG 1.0026 04 Nov 15 0.9936 0.9400 0.9%Euro / US dollar EURUSD SHORT 1.0665 15 Jun 16 1.1239 1.11 5.4%US dollar / Japanese yen USDJPY LONG 110.91 31 Aug 16 103.48 109 7.2%US dollar / Chinese renminbi USDCNH LONG 6.8834 18 Jan 17 6.81 6.50 1.0%Brazilian real / Japanese yen (carry) BRLJPYCR LONG 372.61 16 Nov 16 318.20 300 17.1%Brazilian real / Swedish krona (carry) BRLSEKCR LONG 291.87 26 Oct 16 272.26 245 7.2%Brazilian real / euro (carry) BRLEURCR LONG 301.69 26 Oct 16 276.62 253 9.1%Mexican peso / euro (carry) MXNEURCR LONG 169.53 09 Nov 16 151.12 160 12.2%Mexican peso / Japanese yen (carry) MXNJPYCR LONG 209.38 01 Feb 17 192.42 200 8.8%Euro / Swiss franc (carry) EURCHFCR SHORT 81.43 21 Dec 16 81.39 86 0.0%British pound / Japanese yen (carry) GBPJPYCR LONG 123.73 25 Jan 17 127.78 120 -3.2%Turkish lira / Euro (carry) TRYEURCR LONG 514.95 01 Feb 17 489.60 470 5.2%US dollar / Canadian dollar (carry) USDCADCR LONG 83.50 08 Feb 17 81.97 77 1.9%US dollar / Swedish krona (carry) USDSEKCR LONG 111.50 08 Feb 17 109.68 104 1.7%US dollar / New zealand dollar (carry) USDNZDCR LONG 46.46 15 Feb 17 45.1882 43 2.8%South African rand / euro (carry) ZAREURCR LONG 148.79 15 Feb 17 157.09 147 -5.3%South African rand / Swedish krona (carry) ZARSEKCR LONG 143.85 15 Feb 17 150.19 140 -4.2%South African rand / New zealand dollar (carry) ZARNZDCR LONG 59.95 15 Feb 17 61.1069 57.00 -1.9%Russian ruble / euro RUBEUR LONG 0.0167 22 Feb 17 0.0164 0.0153 1.8%Australian dollar / euro (carry) AUDEURCR LONG 220.30 22 Feb 17 226.04 212 -2.5%Turkish lira / Japanese yen (carry) TRYJPYCR LONG 635.82 01 Mar 17 650.58 580 -2.3%Russian rouble / Norvegian krone RUBNOK LONG 0.1533 08 Mar 17 0.1454 0.1350 5.4%

Data as of: 05/04/2017 12:23

Positions stopped out

Currency Ticker Position Price Entry Date


%South African rand / Japanese yen (carry) ZARJPYCR LONG 185.00 15 Feb 17 198.62 185 -6.9%

Data as of: 05/04/2017 12:32

CURRENCY PORTFOLIO

4405.04.2017

Closed recommendations


Closed Recommendations

Currency Ticker Position Exit Price

Entry Date

Entry Price

Exit Date

PnL%

US dollar / Singapore dollar USDSGD LONG 1.4000 20 Jul 16 1.3599 01 Mar 17 2.9%Brazilian real / Australian dollar (carry) BRLAUDCR LONG 134.07 23 Dec 16 129.31 22 Feb 17 3.7%New zealand dollar / euro (carry) NZDEURCR LONG 257.0195 30 Nov 16 251.92 15 Feb 17 2.0%US dollar / Canadian dollar USDCAD LONG 1.3000 01 Jun 16 1.3105 31 Jan 17 -0.8%US dollar / Australian dollar (carry) USDAUDCR LONG 52.00 22 Dec 16 54.74 02 Feb 17 -5.0%South African rand / euro (carry) ZAREURCR LONG 149.31 19 Oct 16 138.47 01 Feb 17 7.8%South African rand / Swedish Krona (carry) ZARSEKCR LONG 142.12 19 Oct 16 135.47 01 Feb 17 4.9%South African rand / Japanese yen (carry) ZARJPYCR LONG 190.74 26 Oct 16 165.21 01 Feb 17 15.5%South African rand / Australian dollar (carry) ZARAUDCR LONG 68.70 25 Jan 17 69.67 01 Feb 17 -1.4%US dollar / Swedish krona USDSEK LONG 8.80 17 Aug 16 8.42 01 Feb 17 4.5%Mexican peso / Swedish krona (carry) MXNSEKCR LONG 140.00 12 Oct 16 155.32 11 Jan 17 -9.9%Turkish lira / euro (carry) TRYEURCR LONG 495.00 07 Dec 16 535.62 10 Jan 17 -7.6%Turkish lira / Swedish krona (carry) TRYSEKCR LONG 500.00 07 Dec 16 527.64 05 Jan 17 -5.2%New zealand dollar / Canadian dollar (carry) NZDCADCR LONG 177.21 02 Nov 16 187.07 21 Dec 16 -5.3%New zealand Dollar / Swedish krona (carry) NZDSEKCR LONG 242.64 02 Nov 16 246.15 21 Dec 16 -1.4%New zealand dollar / Japanese yen (carry) NZDJPYCR LONG 319.79 16 Nov 16 302.34 21 Dec 16 5.8%

Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb Mar Apr May Jun-10

-5

0

5

10

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

0.0%

38.2%

50.0%

61.8%

100.0%

45

COMMODITIES: OIL – DON’T BE GREEDY


Comments Selling short crude oil remains on

the top of our agenda in the commodity spectrum.

WTI crude oil has managed to reclaim its 200-day moving average.

Nevertheless, more important is the slope (see graph below).

Thus, as the slope is negative, we are looking for opportunities to short later in April.

Don’t be greedy –wait for the next short-term peak to short

WTI Crude oil – July 2017(200-day MAV)

Momentum-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

MAV rising MAV declining

WTI p.a. return vs. MAV

2015 2016 2017

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Mar Apr M

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

46

CRUDE OIL, WTI Wait for the next short-term rebound to go short


Momentum

Crude oil – WTI(July 2017)

GOLDAnother test of 1,250 – wait to see if the levels can hold

Gold

Momentum

2015 2016 2017

-12

-6

0

6

12

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

2014 2015 2016 2017

-10

0

10

20

450

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

850

900

47

PALLADIUMRemain long – recovery should extend further


Momentum

Palladium

PLATINUM Break of 900 should open way for a sharp correction

Momentum

Platinum

48

COMMODITY PORTFOLIO

Comments No change.


Commodity Ticker Position Price Entry Date


%Palladium / Platinum XPDXPT LONG 0.8380 23 Mar 16 0.6084 0.6500 37.74%Palladium / Gold XPDXAU LONG 0.645 9 Nov 16 0.5270 0.5500 22.37%Palladium XPD LONG 807.86 23 Nov 16 731.22 590 10.48%BCI Commodity index TR * BCOMTR SHORT 173.94 31 Aug 16 167.56 185.00 -3.67%Palladium / Silver XPDXAG LONG 44.25 21 Dec 16 41.25 35 7.26%Gold XAU SHORT 1253 11 Jan 17 1179 1305 -5.93%Platinum PLAT SHORT 964 11 Jan 17 963 1100 -0.19%Silver SILV SHORT 18.26 8 Mar 17 17.31 19.20 -5.22%Data as of: 05/04/2017 12:23TR = Total Retun

49

COMMODITY PORTFOLIO

05.04.2017

*TR = Total Return

Closed recommendations


Closed Recommendations

Commodity Ticker Position Exit Price

Entry Date

Entry Price

Exit Date

PnL%

Silver XAG SHORT 18.20 21 Dec 16 15.93 23 Feb 17 -12.49%Natural Gas BCOMNGTR LONG 0.9300 7 Dec 16 1.1158 3 Feb 17 -16.65%Platinum PLAT SHORT 980.0 10 May 16 1006 9 Jan 17 2.68%Bloomberg Energy Subindex TR BCOMENTR SHORT 81.00 20 Jul 16 70.62 27 Dec 16 -12.81%Natural Gas TR BCOMNGTR LONG 0.900 21 Sep 16 1.023 2 Nov 16 -12.04%BCI Commodity index TR * BCOMTR SHORT 176 6 Apr 16 157 3 Jun 16 -11.02%Gold XAU SHORT 1280 23 Mar 16 1223 4 May 16 -4.45%Gold in AUD XAUAUD SHORT 1740 16 Mar 16 1651 27 Apr 16 -5.11%Palladium XPD SHORT 569.58 4 Nov 15 629.55 9 Mar 16 10.53%BCI Commodity index TR * BCOMTR SHORT 157.00 28 Oct 15 176.56 4 Mar 16 12.46%Copper LMCADS03 SHORT 4800 18 Nov 15 4611.50 2 Mar 16 -3.93%Platinum XPT SHORT 982.00 11 Nov 15 882.00 4 Mar 16 -10.18%WTI crude oil Jan 2017 CLF7 SHORT 42.50 3 Feb 16 40.53 4 Mar 16 -4.64%Silver XAG SHORT 15.88 18 Nov 15 14.09 4 Mar 16 -11.30%

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IMPORTANT LEGAL INFORMATION (1/7)

This publication constitutes investment research and has been produced by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). This publication series is issued regularly. Information on financial instruments and issuers is updated irregularly or in response to important events.

IMPRINTAuthors:Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, [email protected] 1)Jeremy Premand, Technical Analyst, [email protected] 1)

1) This analyst is employed by Bank Julius Baer & Co. Ltd., Zurich, which is authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).

APPENDIXAnalyst certificationThe analysts hereby certify that views about the companies discussed in this report accurately reflect their personal view about the companies and securities. They further certify that no part of their compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly linked to the specific recommendations or views in this report.

MethodologyPlease refer to the following link for more information on the research methodology used by Julius Baer analysts: www.juliusbaer.com/research-methodology

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Price informationUnless otherwise stated, the price information reflects the closing price of the previous trading day.

DisclosureSwiss Re, Galenica, Swatch, Swisscom: Julius Baer and/or its affiliates have financial interests in the subject company discussed in this publication and such interests aggregate to an amount equal to or more than 0.5% of the subject company’s market capitalisation or an amount equal to or more than 0.5% of the new listing applicant’s issued share capital, or issued units, as applicable.

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Technical analysis

The information and opinions expressed were produced by Julius Baer Technical Analysis as of date of writing and are subject to change without notice. Julius Baer conducts primary technical analysis aimed at creating value through investment recommendations. Technical Analysis uses historic market prices in order to assess market conditions. The historic data is analysed by chart reading i.e. by following chart patterns and interpreting indicators calculated from historic price movements.Technical Analysis may be inconsistent with and reach different conclusions to fundamental analysis. It may vary at any time due to the different tools used to assess market conditions and recommendations. Besides individual investment recommendations, Technical Analysis also publishes technical indicator readings, which are mechanically calculated and only provide additional information to large sets of data, and are not intended as investment recommendations. These tables show current trends on an absolute price or relative basis using up, flat and downward pointing arrows. At the same time, support and resistance levels might be displayed which are calculated using Bollinger Bands.

Frequently used abbreviationsC Closing price H High price L Low priceST Short-term (2-8 weeks) MT Medium-term (8-26 weeks) LT Long-term (> 26 weeks)MAV Moving averageBollinger-band The middle Bollinger band is a 20 day simple moving average, the higher and lower bands are calculated as a 20-day simple moving average plus or

minus two standard deviations on a 20-day period.Momentum Momentum is derived from different rate of change calculations based on the underlying instrument.RSI Relative strength index is a leading momentum indicator of prices, showing the strength of a stock by monitoring changes in closing prices in a 9-day

period.

Rating system for global technical analysis (absolute)Buy Expected to advance by at least 10% in the coming 3-12 months, unless otherwise stated.Hold Expected to perform in line (±5%) in the coming 3-12 months, unless otherwise stated.Reduce Expected to decline by at least 10% in the coming 3-12 months, unless otherwise stated.

Rating system for global technical analysis (relative)Overweight Expected to outperform its benchmark by at least 5% in the coming 3-12 months, unless otherwise stated.Neutral Expected to perform in line (±5%) against its benchmark in the coming 3-12 months, unless otherwise stated.Underweight Expected to underperform its benchmark by at least 5% in the coming 3-12 months, unless otherwise stated.

For the history of Technical Analysis equity recommendations over the previous 12 months please view the document at:http://www.juliusbaer.com/tech-analysis-recom-history

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DISCLAIMERGeneral: The information and opinions expressed in this publication were produced as of the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. This publication is intended for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer or an invitation by, or on behalf of, Julius Baer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments or to participate in any particular trading strategy in any jurisdiction. Opinions and comments of the authors reflect their current views, but not necessarily of other Julius Baer entities or any other third party. Other Julius Baer entities may have issued, and may in the future issue, other publications that are inconsistent with, and reach different conclusions from, the information presented in this publication. Julius Baer assumes no obligation to ensure that such other publications are brought to the attention of any recipient of this publication.Suitability: Investments in the asset classes mentioned in this publication may not be suitable for all recipients. This publication has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular investor. Before entering into any transaction, investors should consider the suitability of the transaction to individual circumstances and objectives. Any investment or trading or other decision should only be made by the client after a thorough reading of the relevant product term sheet, subscription agreement, information memorandum, prospectus or other offering document relating to the issue of the securities or other financial instruments. This publication should not be read in isolation without reference to the full research report (if available) which may be provided upon request. 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Ltd., its subsidiaries and affiliated companies do not accept liability for any loss arising from the use of this publication. Important sources for the production of this publication are e.g. national and international media, information services (e.g. Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg Finance L.P.), publicly available databases, economic journals and newspapers (e.g. Financial Times, Wall Street Journal), publicly available company information, publications of rating agencies. Ratings and appraisals contained in this publication are clearly marked as such. All information and data used for this publication relate to past or present circumstances and may change at any time without prior notice. Statements contained in this publication regarding financial instruments or issuers of financial instruments relate to the time of the production of this publication. Such statements are based on a multitude of factors which are subject to continuous change. A statement contained in this publication may, thus, become inaccurate without this being published. Potential risk regarding statements and expectations expressed in this publication may result from issuer specific and general (e.g. political, economic, market, etc.) developments.Risk: The price and value of, and income from investments in any asset class mentioned in this publication may fall as well as rise and investors may not get back the amount invested. Risks involved in any asset class mentioned in this publication may include but are not necessarily limited to market risks, credit risks, currency risks, political risks and economic risks. Investments in emerging markets are speculative and may be considerably more volatile than investments in established markets. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Performance forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future performance. 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Unless explicitly stated in this publication, its information and analysis has not been disclosed to the issuer of the securities referred to herein or a Julius Baer entity before the publication has been published or disseminated. A Julius Baer entity may, to the extent permitted by law, participate or invest in other financing transactions with the issuer of the securities referred to herein, perform services or solicit business from such issuers, have a position or effect transactions in the securities or options thereof, have any other significant financial interest regarding the issuers of the securities referred to herein and/or may have done so in the past. For further information about our interest in the investments featured in this publication, see the company-specific disclosures above.

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