1

TC Winds Conference Call

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

11:00 AM

2

Agenda

• Holland et al. (2010) interpolation summary– Where we are at– Assumptions in question– Hybrid approach?

• NDFD online survey results

• NDFD verification– Slight problems in HWind use for verification– CRONOS verification to be used in paper

3

4

NDFD Online Survey Results

• Thanks for those who participated in survey

• Four responses submitted• Provides focus for climatology paper,

in addition to Bryce’s analysis

5

NDFD Verification• Maximum difference between

maximum wind speed from NDFD forecasts and HWind analysis was calculated

• HWind analysis limited in its domain– May result in undersampling of domain

perimeter and in turn too high of bias (over prediction of wind speeds)

6

7

8

Suggested Fix• Only include in the analysis

interpolated grid points that have HWind analysis data for at least 50% of the analysis times– Eliminates perimeter locations of the

HWind domain that may be under represented

– Not perfect fix, but likely better at least

9

NDFD Verification: Maximum Wind Speed Difference

Ernesto (2006)

10

NDFD Verification: Maximum Wind Speed Difference

Cristobal (2008)

11

NDFD Verification: Maximum Wind Speed Difference

Hanna (2008)

12

NDFD Verification: Maximum Wind Speed Difference

Earl (2010)

13

NDFD Verification: Maximum Wind Speed Difference

Irene (2011)

14

Final CRONOS NDFD Verification

• Maximum difference between maximum wind speed from NDFD forecasts and hourly CRONOS wind speeds was calculatedStorm Name Date Range Analyzed # CRONOS

Stations

Ernesto (2006) 12z 31 Aug. – 06z 3 Sept. 208

Gabrielle (2007)

00z 09 Sept. – 00z 11 Sept.

217

Cristobal (2008)

00z 19 July – 00z 22 July 217

Hanna (2008) 18z 05 Sept. – 00z 07 Sept.

218

Earl (2010) 18z 02 Sept. – 00z 04 Sept.

228

Irene (2011) 18z 26 Sept. – 12z 28 Sept.

234

15

NDFD Verification: Maximum Wind Speed Difference

Ernesto (2006)

16

NDFD Verification: Maximum Wind Speed Difference

Hanna (2008)

17

NDFD Verification: Maximum Wind Speed Difference

Cristobal (2008)

18

NDFD Verification: Maximum Wind Speed Difference

Earl (2010)

19

NDFD Verification: Maximum Wind Speed Difference

Irene (2011)

20

Focuses Next Month• Finish climatology paper, hopefully get to

collaborators for review

• Holland et al interpolation images posted to web-Continuing working with Anantha on Holland et al. (2010)

or other interpolation method

• Get first WRF-LES simulation for Irene (2011)

• Next conference call: Wednesday, Feb. 6th, 11:00 AM

21

Tropical Cyclone Wind Team Charter (Presented by Jonathan Blaes)

Vision: During tropical cyclone situations, for WFOs to provide consistent wind information, in gridded and text formats, which reflect tropical cyclone structure, track, and intensity over time via improvements in the TCMWindTool.

Mission:•Work with GFE developers and the North Carolina State – Collaborative Science, Technology, and Applied Research Program (CSTAR) project to evaluate new GFE tools, procedures, and grids such as WindReductionFactor and GustFactor grids and explore the inclusion of this new methodology in future TCM WindTool Releases.•Address transition issues identified by the 2012 NOAA Hurricane Meeting in making the “Expressions of Uncertainty” initiative operational for the 2014 season.

Scope of Authority and Limitations:• Recommendation 54 of the NWS Service Assessment for Hurricane Irene states “…the NWS should support research such as the CSTAR project Improving Understanding and Prediction of Hazardous Weather in the Southeast United States: Landfalling Tropical Cyclones…”• Updates/decisions will be presented at the 2013 NOAA Hurricane Meeting.

Success Criteria: Implementation of the Expressions of Uncertainty effort for 2014 and modification of the TCMWindTool for 2014. The Team will brief the 2013 NOAA Hurricane Conference where decisions will be made by the Regions for the 2014 season.