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Alexandria, Virginia 22314

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dsackett@tarrance.com

The Tarrance Group

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memorandum

to:

andy tobin for congress

national republican congressional committeefrom:

dave sackettre:a survey of voter attitudes in arizonas first congressional districtdate:

september 5, 2014________________________________________________________________________

The Tarrance Group is pleased to present Andy Tobin for Congress and the National Republican Congressional Committee with the key findings from a survey of voter attitudes in Arizonas 1st Congressional District. These key findings are based on telephone interviews with N=405 likely registered voters throughout the district. Responses to this survey were gathered September 2-4, 2014 and the margin of error associated with a sample of this type is + 4.9% in 95 out of 100 cases.

KEY FINDINGS Republican nominee Andy Tobin holds a substantial +8 point lead over Democratic incumbent Ann Kirkpatrick on a trial ballot test for Congress. Fifty-one percent (51%) of district voters indicate they would vote for Tobin, while forty-three percent (43%) indicate they would vote for Kirkpatrick, and six percent (6%) are undecided on the ballot test. The tight nature of the Republican primary election has not had any impact on the general election, and Republicans in the district are firmly united behind Tobin, as he stands with eighty-nine percent (89%) of the vote among Republican voters. Tobin also has a +7 advantage on the ballot test among Independents. There is also a significant amount of partisan cross-over on the ballot, with Tobin getting 18% of the vote among registered Democrats. Tobin is quite well established with district voters already and has seventy percent (70%) soft name ID and a solid 1.8 to 1 favorable to unfavorable ratio. Congresswoman Kirkpatrick, on the other hand has substantial negatives already and her favorable to unfavorable ratio is only 1.1 to 1.

The political environment in the district is substantially different from that which existed in September, 2012. President Obamas job approval is a net -13 points weaker now that it was in 2012 and fifty-seven percent (57%) indicate they disapprove of the job he is doing (including 56% of Independent voters.) The generic congressional ballot is also a net +7 points stronger now than it was in September, 2012 and Republicans have a +8 point advantage on the generic ballot for Congress. The Republican advantage on the generic ballot has increased from +3 in 2012 to +11 now. Congresswoman Kirkpatricks soft re-elect suffers from both the negative views that district voters have of President Obama and the anti-incumbent sentiment that exists in the district. Only thirty-five percent (35%) of district voters believe that she has done a good enough job to deserve re-election, while fifty-three percent (53%) indicate they believe it is time for a new person.# # #

Key Demographics:

Race:White

76.6%

African American 1.2%

Hispanic/Latino

10.8%

Native American

6.2%

Party:Republican

35.9%

Democrat

38.4%

Independent

25.7%( Page 11The Tarrance Group Arizona CD 1 (September, 2014)