table of contents: electricity sector in...

8/14/2019 Table of Contents: Electricity Sector in Pakistan:.........................................................................................…

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TABLE OF CONTENTS:

ELECTRICITY SECTOR IN PAKISTAN: ............. .............. ............... .............. .............. ........... ...... ...... .... 2

GOVERNMENT ENERGY POLICY: ............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. ...... ..... ..... ..... 2

E NERGY POLICY ............................................................................................................................................... 2I NTRODUCTION OF I NDEPENDENT POWER PRODUCERS (IPP S) ............. ............... .............. .............. .............. ......... ... 2

SUPPLY & DEMAND OF ELECTRICITY IN PAKISTAN: ............. ............... .............. .............. ........ ..... 3

I NSTALLED CAPACITY : .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ...... .. 3ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION : .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. .. 3

CURRENT CRISIS: .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. ............ ..... ..... 5

RESPONSE TO THE CRISIS: ............ ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... ...... 5

W IND E NERGY ................................................................................................................................................ 6SOLAR ENERGY : .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. ........... ..... ...... ...... .. 6

GENERATING ELECTRICITY THROUGH WIND ENERGY: ............. .............. .............. ...... ...... ...... .. 6

HOW IT OPERATES : ............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... ............ . 7BASIC COMPONENTS OF WIND TURBINES .............................................................................................................. 8TWO TYPES OF TURBINES .................................................................................................................................. 8SIZES OF TURBINES .......................................................................................................................................... 9WHERE CAN BE LOCATED : .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............ ..... 9

WIND ENERGY IN PAKISTAN: .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. ........... ..... ..... ..... 10

PAKISTAN CAN MANUFACTURE WIND ENERGY PLANTS : ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ...... 11

GENERATING ELECTRICITY THROUGH SOLAR ENERGY: .............. .............. .............. ........... .... 12

ADVANTAGES OF SOLAR ENERGY IN PAKISTAN : ............. .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. ........... ..... 12HURDLES : ............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ........ ..... ..... ..... 14

PROJECT EVALUATION: ............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ........... ..... ..... .. 141ST ALTERNATIVE : ............ ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. ......... ... 15W IND E NERGY : ............ ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. ......... ..... ...... ...... ... 152 ND ALTERNATIVE : .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ............. ...... ..... 15SOLAR E NERGY : ............. .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. ....... ...... ...... ...... ... 15

ANALYSIS: ............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. ......... ..... ..... .. 16

NOISE POLLUTION : ............. ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. ....... .... 16HUGE AREA CONSUMED : ............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. ....... ...... ..... 17VARIABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION : .............. .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... ............ ...... ...... ...... ... 17

CONCLUSION: ............ ............... .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. ........ ..... . 18

FUTURE PLANS: .............. .............. .............. .............. ............... .............. .............. .............. ..... ..... ..... ..... ... 18

PILOT PROJECT FOR I NSTALLATION OF I NDIGENOUSLY DEVELOPED MICRO W IND TURBINES : .............. ........... ..... ..... .. 18(2X50) MW W IND POWER GENERATION PROJECT AT GHARO , S INDH ................................................................. 18



Electricity sector in Pakistan:Electricity in Pakistan is generated, transmitted, distributed and retail supplied by twovertically integrated public sector utilities; Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) - For the whole Pakistan (Except Karachi ) and the Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC) - For the City of Karachi and its surrounding Areas. There are

around 16 independent power producers that contribute significantly in electricitygeneration in Pakistan.

The electric power sector in Pakistan is still primarily state-owned. Over half of theelectricity goes to household consumers, about one third to industrial consumers, and therest to commercial and government consumers. Rates are determined by the NationalElectric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA).

Other sources of generating electricity are Independent Power Producers (IPP's), some of which have been funded by foreign investors, and a few WAPDA hydroelectric dam

projects. The two largest private power plants in Pakistan are the Hub Power Company(HUBCO) and the Kot Addu power company (KAPCO). HUBCO, with a 1,300-MW

capacity, is owned by a consortium of International Power (UK), Xenal (Saudi Arabia),and Mitsui Corporation. The Kot Addu plant, with a 1,600-MW capacity, was privatizedin 1996 (from WAPDA). International Power holds a 36 percent equity stake in the KotAddu plant, while the government holds a soon-to-be divested 64 percent stake. Both of these plants, as well as a few other small private operators, sell power to the national gridcurrently run by WAPDA.

Government Energy Policy:The govt. policy for the energy sector has been reformed from time to time but we willtake a closer look at the policies.

Energy Policy

Energy sector is regulated and to a large extent owned and operated by the Governmentof Pakistan (GOP). GOP has been carrying out institutional reforms in the energy sector for the last 15 years. Besides improving the efficiency of public sector institutions,

policies are aimed at increasing private sector participation in the development of energysector. In line with these objectives, in 1986, the GOP encouraged setting up of privatesector power projects on BOO (Build-Own-Operate) basis as a matter of policy, but theresponse was not very encouraging. The GOP announced comprehensive frameworks in1994 and 1995 aimed at attracting private sector investments for the development of

power sector. In 1998, the GOP announced a policy to increase the role of regulatory body – National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) for the power producers.

Various policies have also been announced for other sub sectors of the energy sector (e.g.Petroleum, etc.) in order to increase the private participation.

Introduction of Independent Power Producers (IPPs)

When the ‘Policy Framework and Package of Incentives for Private Sector Power Generation Projects in Pakistan‘ was announced by GOP in March 1994, the totalinstalled capacity in the country was 10,800 MW. This capacity was insufficient to meetthe demand on year round basis, particularly during low river flows period, and it

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_and_Power_Development_Authority

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karachi

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karachi_Electric_Supply_Corporation


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_and_Power_Development_Authority

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karachi





necessitated load shedding of the magnitude of 2,000 MW during peak load hours. At thattime, an optimistic load projection at the rate of 8% per annum for the next 25 years gaverise to an estimated 54,000 MW additional electricity generation capacity requirement upto year 2018. Such an ambitious programme could not be financed by the GOP, andtherefore, resource mobilization in the private sector was considered essential to meet

these development targets.Due to poor response of 1986 policy a policy package was devised in March 1994 for attracting overseas investment as well as domestic capital for developing power projects.The lucrative terms, with a high rate of return on equity, attracted a large number of foreign investors and created a situation of surplus power in the country, since theeconomic growth slowed down in the following years and power demand did not grow as

projected. The financial position of Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)was adversely affected due to high tariffs and guaranteed payments to be made to theIPPs.

The GOP revised the power policy in July 1998. This policy envisages power generation

additions in future through competitive bidding for specific sites and types of plants andgives priority to indigenous fuel based (hydro and local coal) projects. Competitive bidding amongst power suppliers is likely to keep the tariff low. In the mean time effortsare being made to solve the problem of surplus power by revival of the sick industry. The

present policy of the government is not to use public sector funds for power production,except for hydro generation.

Supply & Demand of electricity in Pakistan:Pakistan's current installed capacity is around 19,845 MW, of which around 20% ishydroelectric. Much of the rest is thermal, fueled primarily by gas and oil.

Installed Capacity:

• Electricity - total installed capacity: 19,505 MW (2007)

• Electricity - Sources (2007)

o fossil fuel - 12,580 MW - 65% of total

o hydro - 6,463 MW - 33% of total

o nuclear - 462 MW - 2% of total

Electricity production:

• Electricity - production: 88.42 TWh

• Electricity - production by sourceo fossil fuel: 63.7% of total

o hydro: 33.9% of total

o nuclear: 2.4% of total Growing demand



Supply & demand of electricity

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Existing Generation 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903 15,903

Proposal / CommittedGeneration

530 4,235 7,226 10,115 10,556 13,307 13,520 14,607

TotalExisting/CommittedGeneration

16,484 20,138 23,129 26,018 26,459 29,210 29,423 30,510

Expected AvailableGeneration

13,146 16,110 18,503 20,814 21,167 23,368 23,538 24,408

Demand (SummerPeak)

16,484 17,868 19,352 20,874 22,460 24,126 25,919 28,029

Surplus/DeficitGeneration

-3,338 -1,758 -849 -60 -1,293 -758 -2,381 -3,621



Current Crisis:In June 2007, the power cuts in Pakistan lasted no more than 3 or 4 hours a day. Today, inextremely hot weather, Pakistanis have to endure without electricity for 8 to 10 hours aday. Industrial production is suffering, exports are down, jobs are being lost, and thenational economy is in a downward spiral. By all indications, the power crisis in Pakistan

is getting worse than ever.Pakistan Electric Power Company PEPCO blames independent power producers (IPPs)for the electricity crisis, as they have been able to give PEPCO only 3,800 MW onaverage out of 5,800 MW of confirmed capacity. Most of the IPPs are running fuel stocks

below the required minimum of 21 days. IPPs complain that they are not being paid ontime by PEPCO.

Extended electricity load shedding in Karachi's five major industrial estates is causinglosses in billions of rupees as the production activity has fallen by about 50 per cent.KESC, Karachi's power supply utility, is dealing with with a shortfall of around 700MWagainst a total demand of 2200MW. Almost all forms of power generation from fossil

fuel-fired thermal to hydroelectric to nuclear are down from a year ago. As a result of thedaily rolling blackouts, the economy, major exports and overall employment are alsodown and the daily wage earners are suffering. The KESC and PEPCO owe more thanRs. 10b to the independent power producers (IPPs) and paying them will help bring theminto full operation and ease the crisis at least partially.

Per capita energy consumption of the country is estimated at 14 million Btu, which isabout the same as India's but only a fraction of other industrializing economies in theregion such as Thailand and Malaysia, according to the US Dept of Energy 2006 report.To put it in perspective, the world average per capita energy use is about 65 million BTUsand the average American consumes 352 million BTUs. With 40% of the Pakistani

households that have yet to receive electricity, and only 18% of the households that haveaccess to pipeline gas, the energy sector is expected to play a critical role in economicand social development. With this growth comes higher energy consumption and stronger

pressures on the country’s energy resources. At present, natural gas and oil supply the bulk (80 percent) of Pakistan’s energy needs. However, the consumption of those energysources vastly exceeds the supply. For instance, Pakistan currently produces only 18.3

percent of the oil it consumes, fostering a dependency on expensive, imported oil that places considerable strain on the country’s financial position, creating growing budgetdeficits. On the other hand, hydro, coal, wind and solar are perhaps underutilized andunderdeveloped today, as Pakistan has ample potential to exploit these resources.

Response to the crisis: Neelum-Jhelum hydroelectric project, first formally announced by former Minister Omar Ayub on June 10, 2007, is finally starting in earnest under the PPP government of PrimeMinister Yousaf Raza Gilani. This hydro project is expected to add 963MW power generating capacity at a cost US $2.2 billion, according to Business Wire. Prior to this

project, the new Pakistani Prime Minister signed a deal with a Chinese company, DongFong, for setting up 525 MW thermal power plant with an investment of $450 million atChichoki Mallian (Sheikhupura). Both of these projects are expected help partially close



the 3000 MW gap that exists today between supply and demand in Pakistan.

Green Energy OpportunitiesIn response to the warnings of energy crisis in Pakistan, President Musharraf'sgovernment recognized the need and the potential for renewable alternatives and, in

2006, created Alternative Energy Development Board to pursue renewable energy. In particular, AEDB is focusing on wind and solar as viable alternatives. AEDB isfacilitating setting up of small renewable energy projects in line with government’s policyof promoting the use of renewable energy in the country’s power generation mix, says the

board’s chief executive officer Mr Arif Alauddin.Wind Energy

Pakistan is fortunate to have something many other countries do not, which are high windspeeds near major centers. Near Islamabad, the wind speed is anywhere from 6.2 to 7.4meters per second (between 13.8 and 16.5 miles per hour). Near Karachi, the range is

between 6.2 and 6.9 (between 13.8 and 15.4 miles per hour). In addition to high wind

speeds near major centers as well as the Gharo and Keti Bandar corridor, Pakistan is alsovery fortunate to have many rivers and lakes. Wind turbines that are situated in or near water enjoy an uninterrupted flow of wind, which virtually guarantees that power will beavailable all the time.AEDB has recently issued Makwind Power Private Ltd (MPPL) a Letter of Intent for thesetting up of 50MW wind farm at Nooriabad in Sindh, as part of its efforts to facilitate700 MW wind energy by 2010.Solar energy:

Pakistan is an exceptionally sunny country. If 0.25% of Balochistan was covered withsolar panels with an efficiency of 20%, enough electricity would be generated to cover allof Pakistani demand. In all provinces the AEDB has created 100 solar homes in order toexploit solar energy.Solar energy makes much sense for Pakistan for several reasons: firstly, 70% of the

population lives in 50,000 villages that are very far away from the national grid,according to a report by the Solar Energy Research Center (SERC). Connecting thesevillages to the national grid would be very costly, thus giving each house a solar panelwould be cost efficient and would empower people both economically and socially.After having discussed the alternates we will now how wind & solar energy resourceswork, what are their advantages and disadvantages & whether they are suitable for Pakistan’s environment.

Generating Electricity through Wind energy:Since 2001, global wind capacity has nearly doubled to 47,760 megawatts and is cheaper than natural gas even without subsidies. On good sites, wind is even closing in on coal.The world's global sales of wind power equipment are projected to reach $49 billion ayear by 2012. The global wind industry now employs well over 100,000 people, andGermany alone expects to have more than 100,000 wind energy related jobs by 2010.

http://www.aedb.org/

http://tcdc.undp.org/sie/experiences/vol8/pakistan.pdf

http://www.aedb.org/

http://tcdc.undp.org/sie/experiences/vol8/pakistan.pdf



Total installed windpower capacity(end of year & latest estimates)

Capacity (MW)

Rank Nation Latest 2005 20041 Germany 20,622 18,428 16,629

2 Spain 11,615 10,028 8,504

3 USA 11,078 9,149 6,725

4 India 6,053 4,430 3,000

5 Denmark No change 3,128 3,124

6 Italy No change 1,717 1,2657 United Kingdom 1,962 1,353 888

8 China No change 1,260 764

9 Netherlands No change 1,219 1,078

10 Japan No change 1,040 896

World total 65000 58982 47651

How it operates:

Wind turbines harness the wind to generate electricity. Wind turns the turbine blades,which spin a shaft, which connects to the generator and makes electricity. A localtransformer is then used to step up the electrical voltage, so that the electricity can then

be sent through transmission and distribution lines to homes, businesses and other users.

Wind turbines generally produce electricity when winds blow at speeds of 13 kilometresan hour or greater. They shut down at above 90 kilometres per hour for safety reasons.Wind turbines can also be used to generate mechanical power for specific tasks such asgrinding grain or pumping water. On the Canadian Prairies, for example, there areseveral thousand wind turbines that pump water.



Basic components of wind turbines

Electricity-producing wind turbines have four basic components:

♦ A rotor consisting of two or three blades attached to a hub

♦ A generator that produces electricity in the form of alternating current

♦ A control and protection system that optimizes performance and keeps themachinery operating within safe limits

♦ A tower that raises the rotor off the ground.

Modern wind turbines make use of very few but very large blades (ranging between 40to 80 metres in diameter) to capture wind energy, extracting energy from the largest

possible volume of air. The blades are set at different angles to cope with varying windspeeds, and the generator and the blades can be turned to face the changing direction of the wind. The turbines are mounted on towers 40 to 80 metres tall, so as to capturestronger wind flows.

Two types of turbinesModern turbines fall into two basic groups:

♦ Horizontal axis turbines

♦ Vertical axis turbines.

Horizontal axis turbines resemble airplane propellers, with two to three rotor bladesfixed at the front of the tower and facing into the wind. This is the most common designfound today, making up most of the large utility-scale turbines on the global market.

Vertical axis turbines resemble a large eggbeater with rotor blades attached vertically atthe top and near the bottom of the tower and bulging out in the middle.



Near-Shore turbine installations are generally considered to be inside a zone that is onland within three kilometers of a shoreline and on water within ten kilometers of land.Wind speeds in these zones share wind speed characteristics of both onshore wind andoffshore wind depending on the prevailing wind direction. Common issues that areshared within Near-shore wind development zones are aviary (including bird migration

and nesting), aquatic habitat, transportation (including shipping and boating) and visualaesthetics amongst several others.

Sea shores also tend to be windy areas and good sites for turbine installation, because a primary source of wind is convection from the differential heating and cooling of landand sea over the course of day and night. Winds at sea level carry somewhat more energythan winds of the same speed in mountainous areas because the air at sea level is denser.

Wind Energy in Pakistan:Pakistan is fortunate to have something many other countries do not, which is high windspeeds near major centers. Near Islamabad, the wind speed is anywhere from 6.2 to 7.4meters per second (between 13.8 and 16.5 miles per hour). Near Karachi, the range is

between 6.2 and 6.9 (between 13.8 and 15.4 miles per hour).

In only the Balochistan and Sindh provinces, sufficient wind exists to power everycoastal village in the country. There also exists a corridor between Gharo and Keti Bandar that alone could produce between 40,000 and 50,000 megawatts of electricity, says Ms.Katz who has studied and written about alternative energy potential in South Asia. Giventhis surplus potential, Pakistan has much to offer Asia with regards to wind energy. Inrecent years, the government has completed several projects to demonstrate that windenergy is viable in the country. In Mirpur Sakro, 85 micro turbines have been installed to

power 356 homes. In Kund Malir, 40 turbines have been installed, which power 111homes. The Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB) has also acquired 18,000

acres for the installation of more wind turbines.

In addition to high wind speeds near major centers as well as the Gharo and Keti Bandar corridor, Pakistan is also very fortunate to have many rivers and lakes. Wind turbines thatare situated in or near water enjoy an uninterrupted flow of wind, which virtuallyguarantees that power will be available all the time. Within towns and cities, wind speedscan often change quickly due to the presence of buildings and other structures, which candamage wind turbines. In addition, many people do not wish for turbines to be sited near cities because of noise, though these problems are often exaggerated. Wind turbines makeless noise than an office and people comfortably carry on conversations while standingnear them.

Pakistan can import wind energy plants from neighboring India, the company Suzlon manufactures wind turbines, thus decreasing transportation costs. Working with Suzlon,Pakistan can begin to build its own wind-turbine industry and create thousands of new

jobs while solving its energy problems. Suzlon turbines start to turn at a speed of 3meters per second. Vestas, which is one of the world's largest wind turbine manufacturers,has wind turbines that start turning at a speed of 4 meters per second. In addition to

http://www.riazhaq.com/2008/08/indias-wind-power-giant-faltering.html

http://www.riazhaq.com/2008/08/indias-wind-power-giant-faltering.html



Karachi and Islamabad, there are other areas in Pakistan that receive a significant amountof wind.

Pakistan can manufacture wind energy plants:During a survey of the country’s existing manufacturing facilities, surveyor gotconvinced that all the parts and components of the wind turbine could be easilymanufactured indigenously.

The blades and the hub (the item to which the blades are firmly connected) can be produced without any hassle at Aircraft Manufacturing Factory (AMF), Kamra. If Kamrais unable to undertake this job due to its over-commitment, then there’re other reputableconcerns as well where this job could be undertaken.

The gearbox and the two shafts are purely mechanical items, nothing special in them. Wecan utilize the services and expertise of Machine Tools Factory, Landhi, Karachi. We canalso utilize the expertise available at Heavy Mechanical Complex, Taxila or any other facility dealing in mechanical items. The electrical generator that’s installed behind thegearbox can be produced by any of the electrical concerns at Lahore or Karachi.

The same goes for the controller that utilizes electronics besides computer software. Weare undertaking much more complicated projects in our electromechanical cumelectronics cum computers concerns of the country. This item can be manufactured inthese concerns.



As for the steel towers on which the turbines would be installed; these towers are already being manufactured in the country. WAPDA is using thousands of them on the roadside.These towers could be designed and modified as per the desired specifications for usewith the wind turbines.

Regarding cables, we have numerous cable manufacturing factories in the country. If required, their existing capacity could be upgraded and augmented to produce cables of the required specs that could be used to connect wind turbines to a home, business,factory or the national grid.

Generating Electricity through solar energy:Solar energy supports all life on earth and is basis of almost every form of energy whichwe use. Amount of solar energy that falls on earth is enormous. It will be surprising tonote that all energy stored in earth’s reserves of coal, oil and natural gas is just equivalentto energy from only 20 days of sunshine. Yet solar energy accounts for only 1 per cent of global energy sources

Solar panel

Advantages of solar energy in Pakistan:Proponents of solar energy are now convinced that the development and adaptation of solar energy technology in Pakistan can bring a revolution in the life style and livingstandards of low income people living in the remote areas. While propagating this optionthey fail to understand that infrastructure, required know-how and limited productionlevels are the bottlenecks in the mass scale adaptation of solar energy. For years we have

been providing incentives and funds for practical demonstration of solar energy,convincing the people for their utilities, educating the masses and developing the pilotscale activities for its promotion but could not achieve a breakthrough as yet due to theselimitations.



The role of solar energy has been negligible in the total energy picture of Pakistan. Solar energy technology has so far been used in our country only for demonstration purposes.The experiments in the past in this area were not so successful due to variety of reasonsincluding lack of understanding and handling of this technology.

The solar energy technologies have not been exploited on a large scale for a number of reasons such as, high cost, lack of motivation and inadequate demonstration of effectiveuse of the technology. Recently there is a realization among government circles, about thenecessity of using solar energy for the purpose of saving the environment and socio-economic uplift of the peoples living in the remote areas.

Traditional energy sources like firewood, animal dung, and bagasse (the woody residueleft-over from crushed sugar-cane) still make up more than half of all energy consumedin the rural areas. There is no denying the fact that solar-generated electricity willimprove rural life, thereby reducing the urban migration that is taxing the ability of cities

to cope with their own environmental problems. Further, by harnessing solar power for energy in rural areas reliance on firewood would be reduced considerably but questionarises that how to bring the know-how for operating such delicate systems in remoteareas of the country?

Thar in Sindh and entire Balochistan province is considered ideal for utilization of solar energy. In Balochistan, 80 per cent of the population lives in the rural areas. The

population density is very thin and villages are separated by large distances withabsolutely no approach roads. About 85 per cent of the villages are yet to be electrified.

Light is the only requirement for these houses located in remote areas of the province andthe electric requirement for each house is 100 watt at maximum. Extension of grid linesfor such small power requirements would certainly be very uneconomical and local

power generation could be the best solution. In case, diesel generators are used,transportation of fuel to such remote areas and maintenance is again costly propositiontherefore solar energy seems an attractive option for these areas.

Pakistan is ideally located in the sun belt to take advantage of solar energy technologies.This energy source is widely distributed and abundantly available in the country.Balochistan province is particularly rich in solar energy. It has the highest annual meansunshine duration in the world.

Impressed by advantages of solar power like infinite and renewable amount of energy,environment friendliness and fuel-less power generation the government of Pakistanunder the umbrella of Ministry of Science and Technology some 20 years ago, accordedtop priority to solar power generation and for that matter established some research anddevelopment institutes like the National Institute of Silicon Technology (NIST), thePakistan Council of Appropriate Technology (PCAT) and the Solar Energy ResearchCentre (SERC) and the Pakistan Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (PCSIR).



In addition to it certain departments in various national engineering universities wereinvolved in solar thermal technologies.

Hurdles:General hurdles are cost effectiveness, collection, conversion and storage of solar

energy the other potential bottle neck in promotion of solar power is lack of trainedtechnicians to design, install and maintain solar electric system particularly in country-wide remote areas. Proponents of solar electricity systems for off-grid small villages failto understand the key fact of illiteracy in our villages. The vital point to consider is thatwhen technically qualified staff of concerned authorities has failed to demonstrate andmake pilot scale solar generated system run efficiently, how can we expect that a non-qualified illiterate dwellers of our remote areas will supervise and operate a solar system?Further low efficiency of solar cells, non-availability of household appliances that run onlow voltages, requirement and maintenance of backup energy sources like batteries for having electricity in night are other potential reasons for which dream of solar electrification in remote areas of our country could not turn into a reality.

To top it all another significant barrier in promotion of solar power in Pakistan which hasnever been considered by the proponents of solar energy is our dusty atmosphere.Whether it is a photovoltaic type or thermal collector type solar electricity generationunit, the performance of the system directly depends upon obstacle-free contact of sunlight to the system.Any blockage of the sunlight to the system would certainly decrease the efficiency of thesystem. In all of our potential areas of Thar and Balochistan where solar power is beingconsidered dust storms are a noteworthy atmospheric characteristic. Therefore a thinlayer of dust particles will certainly deposit on photovoltaic device or thermal collector glass thus reducing the sunlight intensity on the system just like clouds and fog whichultimately decreases the performance of the solar system.

Keeping in view these limitations of solar energy, evaluating the past poor performanceof concerned institutes and considering lack of qualified manpower to design, install,supervise and operate the solar system it seems that solar power electricity generation inPakistan even on small household scale level in remote areas is not a good proposition.Project Evaluation:We are evaluating here two types electricity generation resources using same variables &the method we are using is present worth cost in which we assume

♦ Land cost is zero because it is provided by govt.

♦ Interest rate is 5%.♦ Project life is 20 years

♦ The values of plants & operating expenses are taken from international agencies.



1st Alternative:

Wind Energy:

Initial Expense = US $585000…. 0year Production capacity = 600KW

Operating Expense = US $6750

n = 20year

ROR = 5%

Present worth Cost = R [(1+i) ^n-1/1+i) ^n *i] + initial cost

Present Worth Cost =US $ 84119.53+585000

Present Worth Cost =US $ 669119.53

2nd Alternative:

Solar Energy:Initial Expense = US $ 3972577.5 ………0year

Production capacity = 600KWOperating Expense = US $ 3000

n =20

ROR =5%

-…….. ………

. ………

1042 200 6

585000

67506750

8 12 14



Present worth Cost = R [(1+i) ^n-1/1+i) ^n *i] + initial cost

Present Worth Cost= 3784.39+3972577.5

Present Worth Cost= US $ 4009961.89

Analysis:After applying the present worth cost technique we can say the wind energy is beneficial

because the cost of the project is lesser than that of solar power electricity plant.

After evaluation we will have a closer look at the implications of wind energy plantwhich are

♦ Noise pollution

♦ Huge area consumed

♦ Variable energy production

Noise pollution:Wind turbines, particularly older designs, emit noise that can be heard near wind farms.According to the U.S. Renewable Energy Policy Project, the noise from a typical windfarm at 350 meters can vary between 35 and 45 decibels. Sound levels can grow withincreases in wind speeds, and are objectionable to some people.

To minimize noise levels, operators are using improved rotor technology, citing plantsaway from densely populated areas and including sound-absorbing materials in thegenerator. The frequency and volume of this noise can be controlled, but not eliminated

by wind turbine design.

…….. …..... ………

3972577.5

200

30003000

42 6 8 10 12 14 16 18



Huge area consumed:The leasing of land for wind turbines can benefit landowners in the form of increasedincome and land values. But in some cases, wind power development may create land

conflicts. In forested areas, these developments may mean clearing trees and cuttingroads. And near populated areas, wind projects may run into opposition from peoplewho regard them as unsightly and noisy.

Wind developers are using stakeholder consultation and careful project planning toaddress potential citing and environmental concerns. Geothermal power plants take uplittle land area and do not produce wastes. But depending on the technology used, theymay also have environmental impacts.

Geothermal power plants exploit hot, underground fluid, which consists of mostly steamand small amounts of carbon dioxide, hydrogen sulphide, methane and ammonia. Theamounts of chemicals released when geothermal fields are tapped can be hazardous or

objectionable to people living and working nearby.Variable energy production:Annual electricity production will vary enormously depending on the amount of wind onyour turbine site. Therefore, there is not a single price for wind energy, but a range of

prices, depending on wind speeds

The graph below shows how the cost of electricity produced by a typical Danish 600 kWwind turbine varies with annual production.

The relationship is really very simple: If you produce twice as much energy per year, you pay half the cost per kilowatt hour. (If you believe that maintenance costs increase withturbine use, the graph might not be exactly true, but close to true).



Conclusion:It is clear that Pakistan is a suitable country for the installation of wind, due to high windsnear cities; the presence of rivers and lakes as well as the availability of wind turbinesfrom nearby India. There are also other reasons for installing renewable energy. It is quitenormal for extended power outages to happen on a daily basis in the country, but thiscannot continue if the Pakistani economy is to grow. In March 2007, President Musharraf stated that renewable energy should be part of the push to increase energy supplies by 10to 12 percent every year. The government also set a target of 10 percent of energy tocome from renewable by 2015. If the new PPP-led government follows through withaggressive renewable energy push, Pakistan could be an Asian leader in renewable energygiven its natural resources of wind and solar as its strategic endowments.

Future plans:

Pilot Project for Installation of Indigenously Developed Micro Wind Turbines:A total of 140 Micro Wind Turbines have been installed at various sites within Sindh andBalochistan, for providing electricity to the rural households, as well as for water

pumping.

(2x50) MW Wind Power Generation Project at Gharo, Sindh

On commercial grid connected electricity generation program, the Government of Pakistan has decided to install 100 MW Wind Power Farm by June 2009. This programinitiated by the Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB), involves financingthrough private sector, land from Government of Sindh and power purchase by NTDC for

HESCO. The Government of Pakistan guarantees are backed through NEPRA. The Boardhas recently issued LOIs to 30 national and international companies for generation of 1500 MW power through wind energy.

A wind corridor at Gharo-Keti Bandar, Sindh has been identified with an actual potentialof 50,000 MW. The pre-feasibility study of the site has been done by AEDB. AEDBdrafted the Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) and the Implementation Agreement. 8companies with financial and technical viability have been short-listed. OEMs/Supplierslike GE, VESTAS and GAMESA have been short-listed for the project. Three companieshave submitted applications to NEPRA for obtaining Generation License. NTDC hassubmitted the request for Power Acquisition Permission to NEPRA for procuring power from the proposed wind plants. HESCO has agreed to purchase the initial 100 MW WindPower generated through this project. Private investors have entered the PPA negotiationswith NTDC/WAPDA. Sindh Government has leased out approximately 5000 Acres of land for the project. AEDB has allocated 1000 acres of land each to five (5) investors,namely M/s New Park Energy Ltd., M/s Green Power, M/s Zephyr Ltd., M/s Win Power Ltd. and M/s Tenaga. Tariff would be determined by NEPRA in consultation with the IPPand the Power Purchaser i.e. NTDC, as per Government of Pakistan’s Policy for Power



Generation 2002, and under the Section 7(6) of the Regulation Generation, Transmissionand Distribution of Electric Power Act (XL of) 1997 (NEPRA Act). New Transmission

Network from Mirpur Sakro to Thatta is to be constructed by NTDC in order to sustainthe load generated by 100 MW Wind Power. PC-I for the project has been approved bythe CDWP.

Once the initial target of generating 100 MW through Wind Energy is achieved, it will beupgraded to 700 MW by the year 2010 and 9700 MW by the year 2030.

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