systemic foresight methodology dr. ozcan saritas manchester institute of innovation research the...
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Systemic Foresight Methodology
Dr. Ozcan Saritas
Manchester Institute of Innovation ResearchThe University of Manchester
The 4th International Seville Conference onFuture-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
12 & 13 May 2011
– The increasing importance of innovation (both technological and organisational) and the development of service economies
– Increased financial, trade and investment flows– Rapid and accelerating technological progress; ICTs,
biotechnology, fuel cells, nanotechnologies– Global value chains and new international regulations and
standards on trade, quality, labor, environment, intellectual property rights
– Other developments including changes in demographic structures and in cultural practices, and environmental affairs, advancements in S&T
– Recognition of the close relationship between S&T and Society
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Increasing push for greater efficiency and decarbonisation of the energy system because of the environmental and energy security concerns
Trends
Environmental policies change behaviours and shift societal actions more toward integral or internalized measures – such as recycling requirements
Drivers of change
• Understanding– Real-life systems and natural settings with a multi-contextual focus– Increasing interrelationships and interdependencies and thus more complex and uncertain
situations
• Anticipation– Understanding, appreciating and modelling present & anticipated long-term developments
– Intelligence gathering to explore novel ideas and avoid shocks
• Inclusivity– Interactive and participative ways of debate and analysis– Continuous interaction of stakeholders on equal terms– Establishment of new social networks
• Policy and action orientation– Elaboration of strategic visions based on a shared sense of commitment– Implications for present-day decisions and actions
• Methodological support– Using quantitative and qualitative methods and building methodologies by combining them
to fit for purpose– Integration of best practices, methods and tools
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Intelligence – Creates shared understanding and mutual
appreciation of issues at hand Imagination
– The input from scanning is synthesised into conceptual models of the situations involved in the real world
Integration– Analyses the alternative models of the future
and ‘prioritises’ them, through intensive negotiations among system actors and stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the future
Interpretation– Translates future visions into long-,
medium-, and short-term actions for a successful change programme
Intervention– Creates plans to inform present day
decisions for immediate change to provide structural and behavioural transformations
Interaction
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Scanning
PanelsWorkshops
Bibliometrics/ Data Mining
LiteratureReview
Interviews
SystemAnalysis
Trends/DriversIndicators
Scanning for Intelligence gathering“The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends” (DEFRA, 2002)Selecting the main areas for intervention, the boundaries of the Foresight are drawn and the ‘content’ of Foresight is built with scanningScanning provides the basic input to the entire activity and involves analysis of such as Trends, Drivers of Change, Surprises/Shocks, Discontinuities
Systemic Foresight Methodology
What kind of developments will occur? Which ones of them could be beneficial and which ones harmful? How soon may these developments occur? What might be the first signs that these developments are
happening? Where and how might the leading indications of impending change
be seen? Who is in a position anywhere to observe these indications? What is worth to minimise the extent of surprise introduced by these
indications? Who needs to know about these impending changes?
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Social system
Technological system
Economic system
Ecological system
Political system
Values
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Systemic Foresight Methodology
10
Urban Poverty – issues (<1999)
11
Urban Poverty – issues (2000-09)
12
Urban Poverty – issues (2010-19)
Urban Poverty - centrality measuresbased on Freeman’s degree of centrality
<1999 2000-2009 2010-2019 2020-2029 2030 <
1 Poverty (170) Poverty (105) Urban (406) Population (36) Rural (18)
2 Urbanisation (156)
Slums (92) Poverty (394) Sanitation (36) Poverty (18)
3 Food (131) Sanitation (83) Population (379) Water (25) Migration (18)
4 Rural (121) Rural (76) Growth (350) Rural (25) Urbanisation (18)
5 Population (121) Food (73) Slums (340) Urban (25) Malnutrition (11)
6 Water (115) Population (69) Disaster (320) Urbanisation (21)
Food (11)
7 Migration (110) Migration (69) Public transport (314)
Poverty (13) Sanitation (11)
8 Sanitation (97) Urbanisation (67)
Transport (314) Housing (13) Health (11)
9 Urban (94) Urban (66) Policy (281) Transport (13) Land (11)
10 Education (88) Health (64) Cities (281) Land (13) Water (11)
11 Agreements (75) Defecation (62) Road (268) Health (13) Transport (11)
12 Health (70) Water (62) Lifestyle (262) Migration (13) Housing (11)
13 Sustainability (70) Toilets (62) Landslide (238) Business (8) Handicrafts (7)
14 Environment (70) Economy (58) Catastrophe (238) Economy (8) Environment (7)
15 Slums (67) Malnutrition (53) Congestion (238) Agriculture (8) Agriculture (7)
Gaming
PanelsWorkshops
ScenarioPlanning
Wild CardWeak Signals
NetworkAnalysis
Modelling/ Simulation
Agent BasedModelling
“Imagination is more than knowledge” – A. Einstein
Generation of new ideas or concepts, or new associations between existing ideas or concepts
Production of models to promote understanding of systems and situations within the limits of uncertainties
Modelling formalises thought experiments leads to the further development of Foresight process and presentation of the outcome
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Systemic Foresight Methodology
People of the year 2000, amazed at the sight of a horse. (French postcard circa 1910)
Systemic Foresight Methodology
1-year Present
The time it takes planet earth to circle the sun onceCycle of seasonsUnit of time measurement for human livesFarming and crop rotation
10-year Present
Sizeable chunk of a human lifetimeLong enough to provide insight into dynamic processesIdeal for noting environmental and ecological factorsA reasonable horizon for testing new products and servicesThe time it takes to plan and build major infrastructure items
20-year Present
Cycle of generations for human beings: (Veterans, 1922-1943); (Baby Boomers, 1943-1960); (Generation Xs (1960-1980);The Nexters (1980-2000))Long enough to observe the economics and social impact of strategic R&D activities, e.g. the identification of CFCsscientifically and the sign of the international contract to take precautionary measures (1974-1990)
50-year PresentIncorporates some major concerns of a technologically advanced cultureCulturally significant period to understand trends and change processesEnough to judge the impacts and implications of existing and new technologies
100-year Present
Boundary of a single lifetimeLong cycles can be distinguishedThe rise and fall of regions, industries and ecosystemsTheories and history and futures begin to flourish
200-year Present
Ideal timeframe for cultures in transitionA time with which generations are linkedEnough to develop intergenerational biography and dialogueThe rise and fall of cultures, empires and entire ecosystemsMacro view of history; the panorama of the centuries
Systemic Foresight Methodology
From Networks to Evolutionary Scenarios
2000 - 2009 2010 - 2019
The history of the future
< 1999
T
Wi
Di
We
DT
Di
We
D T
Wi
Di
D
Wi We
SWOTAnalysis
PanelsWorkshops
Multi CriteriaAnalysis
Cross ImpactAnalysis
Prioritisation/ Delphi
Benefit/Cost/Risk Analysis
ScoringVoting/Rating
Concerned with the systemic analysis of future alternatives and building a vision
The analysis and selection of a desired system is multifaceted as there is a variety of worldviews and expectations to be negotiated.
For a system to be viable in the long term, the claims of different stakeholders must be considered adequately, and attention must be given to ethical and aesthetic aspects for the pursuit of ideals such as beauty, truth, good and plenty (Ackoff, 1981).
The end product of this phase is an agreed model of the future
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Backcasting
PanelsWorkshops
Road Mapping
RelevanceTrees
Logic Charts
StrategicPlanning
LinearProgramming
Translates visions into strategies for a successful change programme.
Conditions for the successful transformation strategies:- Assessment (e.g. processing information;
developing an understanding of the continuously changing context; and becoming an open learning system)
- Leadership (e.g. having a context-sensitive leadership; creating capabilities for change; and linking actions with resources)
- Linking strategic and operational change (e.g. supplying visions, values and directions)
- Management of human resources (e.g. demonstrating the need for change in people and behaviours)
- Coherence (e.g. adaptive response to environment; and maintaining competitive advantage)
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Priority Lists
PanelsWorkshops
ImpactAssessment
R&DPlanning
Critical/KeyTechnologies
OperationalPlanning
Action Planning
Any Foresight exercise has to inform policies and actions.
Foresight suggests actions concerning immediate change actions to implement structural and behavioural transformations.
Actions for change are determined by considering the following capabilities of the system under investigation:- Adapting- Influencing and shaping its context- Finding a new milieu or modelling itself virtuously in
its context- Adding value to the viability and development of
wider wholes in which it is embedded
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Inte
rac
tio
n
• Shift from ‘government’ to ‘governance’ and thus a new ‘regulatory’ system– Inclusiveness and equity through freedom of association and
expression, and an organised civil society with full protection of human rights
– Democratic society influencing, restraining or blocking policy design and implementation
– Contributions from society, firms, institutions, and associations to enhance public policy within a new normative and legal framework
– Effectiveness and efficiency in meeting society’s expectations and sustainable use of resources
• The quest for new forms of governance is structured around three pillars: Governance, Socio-cultural evolution & Corporate industrial activity
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Science &Ecology
Technology& Economics
SocioeconomicsPolitics & Values
What is possible?
What is desirable?
What is feasible?
Systemic Foresight
Systemic Foresight
Systemic Foresight Methodology
InterventionInterpretationImaginationIntelligence Integration
Scanning
PanelsWorkshops
Inte
ract
ion
Bibliometrics/ Data Mining
LiteratureReview
Interviews
SystemAnalysis
Trends/DriversIndicators
Priority Lists
PanelsWorkshops
ImpactAssessment
R&DPlanning
Critical/KeyTechnologies
OperationalPlanning
Action Planning
Gaming
PanelsWorkshops
ScenarioPlanning
Wild CardWeak Signals
NetworkAnalysis
Modelling/ Simulation
Agent BasedModelling
SWOTAnalysis
PanelsWorkshops
Multi CriteriaAnalysis
Cross ImpactAnalysis
Prioritisation/ Delphi
Benefit/Cost/Risk Analysis
ScoringVoting/Rating
Backcasting
PanelsWorkshops
Road Mapping
RelevanceTrees
Logic Charts
StrategicPlanning
LinearProgramming
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Objectives of the Regional Foresight exercise: Policies and strategies for the Renewable Energies sector (e.g. improve
competitiveness of companies, scientific organizations and intermediaries; establish the capital region as relevant and attractive location; improve services; and exploit a large market in the region and beyond)
Identification of key technologies (e.g. identify key technologies for the next 10-20 years; promote technology learning; strengthen technology transfer; utilize existing technologies; and involve in the development, shaping and expert technologies)
Structural and organizational improvement of the sector (e.g. improve collaboration among actors; improve supplier / value chains; initiate new partnerships and investments; establish state-wide SME network; and establish international activities)
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Scanning: For the analysis of STEEPV systems to understand what type of energies will be needed and what kind of demand will come out
Key Indicators / Forecasting: For the analysis of sectoral forecasts and long term projections
Mega trend analysis: To understand the broad policy tendencies at the Global/European/National levels
Synthesis of previous work: Large amount of the work on energy futures exists including plenty of scenario work (reviewing those scenarios would be useful to suggest a set of “synthesis scenarios”)
Scenarios: To discover alternative futures on policy developments
SWOT analysis of the regional capabilities against the visionary scenario
Roadmapping: Illustrating the priority areas, the actions to be taken in long, medium and short terms and the distribution of initiatives among the actors in the sector
Policy Recommendations: Policy actions to be taken in the short term
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Scanning: For the analysis of STEEPV systems and discuss their implications on technologies
Bibliometrics/Literature Review: For the review the technologies to generate energy and discuss in panels which are relevant and promising for the region
Key Indicators/Forecasts: Analysis of sectoral forecasts and long term projections on technologies
Synthesis: For the review and synthesis of the previous Foresight work
Scenarios with wide participation (including citizens) identify the ‘demands of society’ from the technology
Delphi: Represents the ‘supply’ side – whether the demands in the scenarios are possible and feasible or not. Helps to define time of realisation for selected technologies and technology areas. Also helps to identify priority technologies
Roadmaps: For the development of Technology Roadmaps for prioritised technologies at different levels such as Technology – Product / Capability / Development / Research
Produce a list of critical technologies Suggest R&D projects and plan R&D activities and resources
Systemic Foresight Methodology
System Analysis: Analysis of the value chain helps to come to a better understanding of how the sector works and what the actors / stakeholders are
Clustering by stakeholder mapping helps to map the actors in the sector and to indicate ‘who is doing what’
Mega trend analysis: Sectoral megatrends will give clues on changing roles in the sectors and inclusion of new actors / stakeholders in the process in the future
Scenarios: Various scenarios around Input-Output relationships illustrate the future organisation of the sector
SWOT analysis of the existing structures against the structures suggested in the visionary / most desirable scenario
Delphi: To identify types of collaborations needed among stakeholders in order to establish new links in the system
Strategic plans: for the restructuring of the sector in the medium term
Action planning: To suggest immediate actions to change / improve structures and organisations and to introduce new rules and regulations
Systemic Foresight Methodology
METHODS Policy Path Tech Path Structural Path
Scanning
Bibliometrics
Literature Review
Key Indicators
Stakeholder Mapping
System Analysis
Megatrend Analysis
Scenarios
Weak Signals
SWOT Analysis
Delphi Survey
Roadmapping
Relevance Trees
Strategic Planning
Critical / Key Techs
R&D Planning
Policy Recommendations
Action Planning
• Foresight practice has moved from being ‘systematic’ to ‘systemic’
• Systemic Foresight Methodology (SFM) concerns ‘situations’, which is characterised by sets of events that may be that may be coincident or serial or both that create a situation not a problem
• Provides greater awareness and understanding and appreciation of complex Social, Technological, Economic, Ecological, Political and Value (STEEPV) systems
• SFM involves a ‘soft process of inquiry’ , which is characterised by subjective opinion
• SFM meets expectations for inclusivity, transparency and inclusivity
Systemic Foresight Methodology
Systemic Foresight Methodology