sustainable transport in the asia pacific: challenges and … · 2017. 8. 4. · 1 sustainable...
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1
Sustainable Transport in the Asia Pacific:Challenges and
Opportunities for its Cities
CityNet Working Session 3. People to People Mobility
3rd ASEAN MAYORS’ FORUM July 26, 2017
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Urban Transport experience• Walking and NMT– up to 1900• Shift towards public transport (bus, trams, rickshaws) but
NMT still dominant 1900 – 1945• Emergence of individual mobility, first 4 wheels and then
2 wheels, for privileged few 1945 – 1975• Expansion of individual mobility while maintaining broad
based public transport 1975-1990• Explosion of private transport, neglect of public transport
systems 1990 – 2005• Re-emerging interest in public transport 2005 –
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Challenges: Cities are Growing
• Urban populations will increase by an average of 50% in the next 20 years
• Urban densities decreasing: - Decreasing household size- Increasing incomes and car ownership
which encourage suburbanization
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1989 2001
Kuala Lumpur• Built up area doubled (1989-2001) 385 to 805 sq km• Population increase 2.7 to 5 million• Density decrease 7,130 to 6,160 per sq km
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“We are nourishing at immense cost a monster of great potential
destructiveness, and yet we love him dearly.”
The motor car
Professor Sir Colin BuchananTraffic in Towns
Penguin Books in association with HMSO (1963)
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Challenges: Vehicle growth veh/pop (1000)
Japan
KoreaTaiwan,PRCMalaysia
Thailand
IndonesiaIndia
ChinaPakistan
UK (actual)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 2010
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Challenges• Urbanisation, motorisation, congestion,
pollution
• City sprawl – suburbanisation, car dependence
• Increasingly frustrated city leaders turn to ‘instant solutions’
• Transport policy failing
Vicious spiral
http://karachi.metblogs.com/archives/images/2008/01/janmb/KARSAZ.phtml
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India S Asia SE Asia CAsia
PRC EAsia
PrivNMT/PT
What Makes Transport Sustainable in a Livable Community?
Sustainable
Source: various CAI-Asia Center, 2008
Chart2
VijayawadaIndiaVijayawadaIndia
GuwahatiGuwahati
AhmedabadAhmedabad
PunePune
RajkotRajkot
BhopalBhopal
BangaloreBangalore
JaipurJaipur
SuratSurat
HyderabadHyderabad
MumbaiMumbai
BangaloreBangalore
KanpurKanpur
KolkataKolkata
ChennaiChennai
DelhiDelhi
LucknowLucknow
DhakaS AsiaDhakaS Asia
ColumboColumbo
DhakaDhaka
KarachiKarachi
HanoiSE AsiaHanoiSE Asia
JakartaJakarta
Yogyakarta Yogyakarta
SingaporeSingapore
Kuala LumpurKuala Lumpur
BangkokBangkok
BishkekC AsiaBishkekC Asia
WuhanPRCWuhanPRC
HarbinHarbin
ChangzhouChangzhou
ShanghaiShanghai
BeijingBeijing
GuangzhouGuangzhou
Hong KongHong Kong
KunmingKunming
NanjingNanjing
ShenyangShenyang
TianjinTianjin
WuhanWuhan
Xi'anXi'an
HiroshimaE AsiaHiroshimaE Asia
SeoulSeoul
TokyoTokyo
NMT/PT
Priv
77
23
68.5
31.5
77.3
23
83
17
62
38
62.1
37.9
64.02
35.98
57.87
42.13
70
30
65.3
34.7
90.6
9.4
71
29
98
2
95
5
90
10
81
19
70
30
90
10
83
17
94
6
69
31
57.2
42.8
67.7
32.1
34.7
65.3
74.9
25.1
42
58
40
60
88
12
87
13
88
12
70
30
80.5
19.5
94
6
92
8
90.9
9.1
87
13
96
4
98
2
97
3
88
12
76
24
40
60
79
21
71
29
base
Mode Split
CityYearWalkCycleTwo WheelersThree Wheelers/ IPTCarPublic TOthersSource
Vijayawada2007251522131222http://www.umtc.co.in/html/Vijayawada.pdf
Guwahati2007NA111561752http://www.umtc.co.in/html/Guwahati_-_Brouchere.pdf
Ahmedabad20026000John Pucher et. al., The Crisis of Public Transport in India: Overwhelming Needs but Limited Resources, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2004, pg
Pune20073113287615CEPT BRTS Presentations
Pune200737181651221http://www.punecorporation.org/informpdf/transport/Tran_Pol_Eng.pdf
Rajkot200728213813CEPT BRTS Presentations
Bhopal200783518336CEPT BRTS Presentations
Bangalore2007822912742CTTS-2007
Jaipur2007NA7261916266CDP- Jaipur
Surat200736102921112CDP-Surat
Hyderabad20032023174350RITES
Hyderabad2006
Karachi1987123157http://qhxb.lib.tsinghua.edu.cn/myweb/english/2007/2007e3/309-317.pdf
Manila
Hanoi199554424http://www.cleanairnet.org/caiasia/1412/articles-70119_paper.pdf
Hanoi2003222942160PSUTA
Mumbai2005532653301Baker et al. (2005)
Wuhan6113224http://www.wbcsd.ch/web/publications/mobility/mobility-appendix.pdf
Jakarta200129102239http://www.iatss.or.jp/english/research/31-1/pdf/31-1-06.pdf
Hiroshima19674310.1*20261* Including Bicycles - http://www.easts.info/on-line/proceedings_05/2391.pdf
Hiroshima19872721.5*3813* Including Bicycles - http://www.easts.info/on-line/proceedings_05/2391.pdf
Harbin200039141235RETA 6350 Sustainable Urban Transport
Changzhou1986Sustainable (97)/Unstainable(3)RETA 6350 Sustainable Urban Transport
Changzhou1994Sustainable (90)/Unstainable(10)RETA 6350 Sustainable Urban Transport
Changzhou2001Sustainable (65)/Unstainable(35)RETA 6350 Sustainable Urban Transport
Changzhou2004Sustainable (63)/Unstainable(37)RETA 6350 Sustainable Urban Transport
Changzhou2006Sustainable (70)/Unstainable(30)RETA 6350 Sustainable Urban Transport
Yogyakarta 200218531289http://209.85.175.104/search?q=cache:HHnHdaifjF0J:www.cleanairnet.org/baq2006/1757/docs/P2_1.ppt+Mode+share+%2B+NMT&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=11
Bangalore20011611181145www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Cities_Data_Book/default.asp
Bishkek20017121080www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Cities_Data_Book/default.asp
Columbo20016134752www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Cities_Data_Book/default.asp
Dhaka200160133924www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Cities_Data_Book/default.asp
Shanghai200433242024http://www.wbcsd.org/DocRoot/gV6FkA9iA89Ru0x0AoQx/Shanghai_M4D_report_April08.pdf
Singapore19802019575De-coupling of urban mobility need from environmental degradation in Singapore - Dr. Shobhakar Dhakal
Singapore19951325548De-coupling of urban mobility need from environmental degradation in Singapore - Dr. Shobhakar Dhakal
Bangkok1999106030Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
Beijing199971624Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
Chennai2002471043John Pucher et. al., The Crisis of Public Transport in India: Overwhelming Needs but Limited Resources, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2004, pg 100.
Delhi2002391942John Pucher et. al., The Crisis of Public Transport in India: Overwhelming Needs but Limited Resources, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2004, pg 100.
Dhaka1996651025Bangladesh National Transport Policy, Ministry of Communications and Transport, 2003 Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Guangzhou200473819December 2004. It’s a section from a city govt. report Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Guangzhou2003353030ITDP, Preliminary Observations on Bus Rapid Transit in Guangzhou, December 2004
Hong Kong199917974Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
Jakarta1999224136Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
Kanpur20029325John Pucher et. al., The Crisis of Public Transport in India: Overwhelming Needs but Limited Resources, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2004, pg 100.
Kolkata200216579John Pucher et. al., The Crisis of Public Transport in India: Overwhelming Needs but Limited Resources, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2004, pg 100.
Kuala Lumpur1999175826Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
Kunming2004751312December 2004. It’s a section from a city govt. report Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Lucknow200269301John Pucher et. al., The Crisis of Public Transport in India: Overwhelming Needs but Limited Resources, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2004, pg 100.
Nanjing200477419December 2004. It’s a section from a city govt. report Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Shanghai2002581329Lee Schipper through Gakenheimer and other sources, all Shanghai
Shenyang200487210December 2004. It’s a section from a city govt. report Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Singapore1999222256Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
Seoul1999202160Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
Tianjin200487310December 2004. It’s a section from a city govt. report Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Tokyo1999222949Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
Wuhan1998661222December 2004. It’s a section from a city govt. report Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Xi'an2004452224Prof. Chen Kuanmin, Dept., of Traffic Engineering, Chang'an University, Sustainable Indicators Project-ADB/WRI Xi'an project Mid-Term Report, September 2004, Hanoi
http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/transportation_shanghai.pdf
Author:Adjusted by eyeballing the figure
Author:Includes Cycle Rickshaw
Author:includes Pedicab
www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Cities_Data_Book/default.asp
graph
Mode Split
CityWalkCycleTwo WheelersThree Wheelers/ IPTCarPublic TOthersSource
NMT/PTPrivNMTPTparaM/Ccar
IndiaVijayawada7723100402215221100251522131222http://www.umtc.co.in/html/Vijayawada.pdf
Guwahati6932100115261517100NA111561752http://www.umtc.co.in/html/Guwahati_-_Brouchere.pdf
Ahmedabad7723100600171851006000John Pucher et. al., The Crisis of Public Transport in India: Overwhelming Needs but Limited Resources, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2004, pg
Pune83171005522616110037181651221http://www.punecorporation.org/informpdf/transport/Tran_Pol_Eng.pdf
Rajkot62381004901338010028213813CEPT BRTS Presentations
Bhopal62381008361835310083518336CEPT BRTS Presentations
Bangalore6436100114212297100822912742CTTS-2007
Jaipur5842100726242616100NA7261916266CDP- Jaipur
Surat70301004612329110036102921112CDP-Surat
Hyderabad6535100233583141002023174350RITES
Mumbai9191005530663100532653301Baker et al. (2005)
Bangalore71291002645018111001611181145www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Cities_Data_Book/default.asp
Kanpur9821009350201009325John Pucher et. al., The Crisis of Public Transport in India: Overwhelming Needs but Limited Resources, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2004, pg 100.
Kolkata955100167905010016579John Pucher et. al., The Crisis of Public Transport in India: Overwhelming Needs but Limited Resources, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2004, pg 100.
Chennai901010047430100100471043John Pucher et. al., The Crisis of Public Transport in India: Overwhelming Needs but Limited Resources, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2004, pg 100.
Delhi811910039420190100391942John Pucher et. al., The Crisis of Public Transport in India: Overwhelming Needs but Limited Resources, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2004, pg 100.
Lucknow7030100691030010069301John Pucher et. al., The Crisis of Public Transport in India: Overwhelming Needs but Limited Resources, Journal of Public Transportation, Vol. 7, No. 3, 2004, pg 100.
S AsiaDhaka901010065250100100651025Bangladesh National Transport Policy, Ministry of Communications and Transport, 2003 Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Columbo831710067521341006134752www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Cities_Data_Book/default.asp
Dhaka946100619243310060133924www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Cities_Data_Book/default.asp
Karachi693110012570310100123157http://qhxb.lib.tsinghua.edu.cn/myweb/english/2007/2007e3/309-317.pdf
SE AsiaHanoi57431005160421100222942160PSUTA
Jakarta683210029390102210029102239http://www.iatss.or.jp/english/research/31-1/pdf/31-1-06.pdf
Yogyakarta 35651001889531210018531289http://209.85.175.104/search?q=cache:HHnHdaifjF0J:www.cleanairnet.org/baq2006/1757/docs/P2_1.ppt+Mode+share+%2B+NMT&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=11
Singapore7525100135482501001325548De-coupling of urban mobility need from environmental degradation in Singapore - Dr. Shobhakar Dhakal
Kuala Lumpur425810016260580100175826Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
Bangkok406010010300600100106030Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
C AsiaBishkek881210088002101007121080www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Cities_Data_Book/default.asp
PRCWuhan8713100612241301006113224http://www.wbcsd.ch/web/publications/mobility/mobility-appendix.pdf
Harbin88121005335012010039141235RETA 6350 Sustainable Urban Transport
Changzhou703010007001515100Sustainable (70)/Unstainable(30)RETA 6350 Sustainable Urban Transport
Shanghai81201005724002010033242024http://www.wbcsd.org/DocRoot/gV6FkA9iA89Ru0x0AoQx/Shanghai_M4D_report_April08.pdf
Beijing946100702406010071624Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
Guangzhou928100731908010073819December 2004. It’s a section from a city govt. report Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Hong Kong919100177409010017974Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
Kunming871310075120130100751312December 2004. It’s a section from a city govt. report Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Nanjing964100771904010077419December 2004. It’s a section from a city govt. report Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Shenyang982100881002010087210December 2004. It’s a section from a city govt. report Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Tianjin973100871003010087310December 2004. It’s a section from a city govt. report Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Wuhan881210066220120100661222December 2004. It’s a section from a city govt. report Provided by Karl Fjellstrom
Xi'an762410049270240100452224Prof. Chen Kuanmin, Dept., of Traffic Engineering, Chang'an University, Sustainable Indicators Project-ADB/WRI Xi'an project Mid-Term Report, September 2004, Hanoi
E AsiaHiroshima40601002614018421002721.5*3813* Including Bicycles - http://www.easts.info/on-line/proceedings_05/2391.pdf
Seoul792110019600210100202160Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
Tokyo712910022490290100222949Data from Newman & Kenworthy "Cities and Automobile Dependence"
http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/transportation_shanghai.pdf
graph
NMT
PT
para
M/C
car
NMT/PT
Priv
Author:Adjusted by eyeballing the figure
Author:Includes Cycle Rickshaw
Author:includes Pedicab
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Private modes Public modesdominate dominate
Low mobilitycities
bus/ paratransit
?
Early restraint on motorisation
Rapid motorisationLow road + PT investment
continued Slow motorisationmotorisation Restraint on use
Moderate road-building
? Mass transit investment (bus first then others)? ? Transit oriented land use development
Continued unrestrained motorisation Continued motorisation RestarintVery high/ continuing road investment level Car-oriented but dense land use private carsRapid suburbanisation Invest in Transit-oriented land use Car dependence becomes 'built-in' alternatives Public transport 'locked in'
? ?
? ? ?
? < Spectrum of city types between Car and Transit Cities >?
High mobility cities
Note : Shows intended or potential transport development paths for developing cities Source:Barter, 2004Key: ??? - empirical evidence to date unclear
Walking cities
NMT citiese.g. Shanghai
Motor-cycle cities
e.g. Hanoi
Bus/ paratransit cities
or low-cost citiese.g. Seoul, Manila, KL, Manila
in 1970
Traffic-saturatedBus Cities
e.g. Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila today
Car citiese.g. Houston, no
Asian cities yet
Modern transit cities
e.g. HK, Seoul, Singapore today
Entrenched traffic saturation
e.g. KL?
Traffic saturated
Motor-cycle cities
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Assessing Sustainable Transport
Environmental Economic
Criteria
Social
Noise andSeverance
GHGEmissions
LocalPollutants Safety
Basic Access MarginalizedGroups Time SavingsVehicle
OperatingCosts
RegionalIntegration
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5GHG emissions
Local pollutants
Noise and Severance
Access (employment, health, eduction)
Marginalized GroupsSafety
Time Savings
Vehicle Operating Costs
Regional Integration
Chart1
GHG emissions
Local pollutants
Noise and Severance
Access (employment, health, eduction)
Marginalized Groups
Safety
Time Savings
Vehicle Operating Costs
Regional Integration
0.48
0.48
0.16
2.72
0.8
2.64
3.2
3.16
0.84
Sheet1
Projects 2007
List of ADB Investment in the Year 2007
ProjectLoan NumberYear of ApprovalProject Cost1ADB Loan2Level of sustainable investment
Carec Regional Road Project24032007173.575.344.44%33.47
LAE Port Development Project23982007154.060.0See Note "a"22.22%13.33
2399200740.022.22%8.89
National Trade Corridor Highway Investment Program - Tranche 124002007709.0545.024.44%133.22
2401200712.510.024.44%2.44
Greater Mekong Subregion: Kunming-Hai Phong Transport Corridor-Noi Bai-Lao Cai Highway Project239120071,216.0896.0See Note "b"31.11%278.76
23922007200.031.11%62.22
Railway Safety Enhancement Project23902007140.0100.046.67%46.67
Padma Multipurpose Bridge Design Project2375200722.017.615.56%2.74
Xinjiang Regional Road Improvement Project (Korla-Kuqa Section)23932007594.0150.028.89%43.33
Greater Mekong Subregion Southern Coastal Corridor (Regional)2373200718.77.024.44%1.71
23722007208.775.024.44%18.33
Ho Chi Minh City-Long Thanh-Dau Giay Expressway TA Loan2374200711.210.024.44%2.44
Carec Regional Road Corridor Improvement Project2359200776.540.911.11%4.54
Road Network Development Program - Tranche 123542007249.0190.0See Note "c"15.56%29.56
2355200710.015.56%1.56
Rural Road Sector2351200741.430.635.56%10.88
Western Guangxi Roads Development Project234520071,566.0300.017.78%53.33
Eastern Sichuan Roads Development Project233920071,425.0200.017.78%35.56
Madhya Pradesh State Roads Sector Project II23302007400.0320.031.11%99.56
Domestic Maritime Transport232720076.75.313.33%0.71
Colombo Port Expansion23192007781.0300.08.89%26.67
Railway Sector Investment Program - Tranche 123162007924.5100.0See Note "d"35.56%35.56
Railway Sector Investment Program - Subproject 12317200730.035.56%10.67
Uttaranchal State-Road Investment Program - Tranche 12308200774.050.0See Note "e"17.78%8.89
1 - in million US$3,762.7965.03
2 - in million US$
Notes:
a- US$ 60M will come from the OCR while US$ 40M will come from the ADF
b - 3.1 - Bangladesh; 4.7 - Bhutan; 9.0 - Nepal
b- US$ 896M will come from the OCR while US$ 200M will come from the ADF
c- US$ 190M will come from the OCR while US$ 10M will come from the ADF
d - US$ 100M for Tranche 1 (OCR) and US$ 30M from ADF. Total ADB Loan is US$ 430M, US$ 400M from OCR.
e - Total maximum financing amount is US$ 550M while total investment programme is US$ 830M
Multi Criteria Evaluation
2007 Projects
Loan NoGHG emissionsLocal pollutantsNoise and SeveranceAccess (employment, health, eduction)Marginalized GroupsSafetyTime SavingsVehicle Operating CostsRegional IntegrationNormalized scoreSustainability ComponentADB LoanSustainable Investment
Weighting11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%11.11%(in $ million)(in $ million)
Carec Regional Road Project24030003154432.2244.44%Carec Regional Road Project75.333
LAE Port Development Project23980004232201.1122.22%LAE Port Development Project60.013
23990004232201.1122.22%40.09
National Trade Corridor Highway Investment Program - Tranche 124000001035501.2224.44%National Trade Corridor Highway Investment Program - Tranche 1545.0133
24010001035501.2224.44%10.02
Greater Mekong Subregion: Kunming-Hai Phong Transport Corridor-Noi Bai-Lao Cai Highway Project23910004235331.5631.11%Greater Mekong Subregion: Kunming-Hai Phong Transport Corridor-Noi Bai-Lao Cai Highway Project896.0279
23920004235331.5631.11%200.062
Railway Safety Enhancement Project23904443055502.3346.67%Railway Safety Enhancement Project100.047
Padma Multipurpose Bridge Design Project23750003032200.7815.56%Padma Multipurpose Bridge Design Project17.63
Xinjiang Regional Road Improvement Project (Korla-Kuqa Section)23930004222501.4428.89%Xinjiang Regional Road Improvement Project (Korla-Kuqa Section)150.043
Greater Mekong Subregion Southern Coastal Corridor (Regional)23730003024431.2224.44%Greater Mekong Subregion Southern Coastal Corridor (Regional)7.02
23720003024431.2224.44%75.018
Ho Chi Minh City-Long Thanh-Dau Giay Expressway TA Loan23740001035521.2224.44%Ho Chi Minh City-Long Thanh-Dau Giay Expressway TA Loan10.02
Carec Regional Road Corridor Improvement Project23590001002230.5611.11%Carec Regional Road Corridor Improvement Project40.95
Road Network Development Program - Tranche 123540003022200.7815.56%Road Network Development Program - Tranche 1190.030
23550003022200.7815.56%10.02
Rural Road Sector23510004215501.7835.56%Rural Road Sector30.611
Western Guangxi Roads Development Project23450004231100.8917.78%Western Guangxi Roads Development Project300.053
Eastern Sichuan Roads Development Project23390003142200.8917.78%Eastern Sichuan Roads Development Project200.036
Madhya Pradesh State Roads Sector Project II23300003145501.5631.11%Madhya Pradesh State Roads Sector Project II320.0100
Domestic Maritime Transport23270000013300.6713.33%Domestic Maritime Transport5.31
Colombo Port Expansion23190000002210.448.89%Colombo Port Expansion300.027
Railway Sector Investment Program - Tranche 123164403132201.7835.56%Railway Sector Investment Program - Tranche 1100.036
Railway Sector Investment Program - Subproject 123174403132201.7835.56%Railway Sector Investment Program - Subproject 130.011
Uttaranchal State-Road Investment Program - Tranche 123080003132200.8917.78%Uttaranchal State-Road Investment Program - Tranche 150.09
0.480.480.162.720.82.643.23.160.8424.80%Total3762.7965
% of STI Investments26%
Multi Criteria Evaluation
GHG emissions
Local pollutants
Noise and Severance
Access (employment, health, eduction)
Marginalized Groups
Safety
Time Savings
Vehicle Operating Costs
Regional Integration
Score
-
How much space?
-
Thank you
Jamie LeatherAsian Development Bank
Sustainable Transport in the Asia Pacific:�Challenges and Opportunities for its CitiesUrban Transport experienceChallenges: Cities are Growing Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Challenges: Vehicle growth �veh/pop (1000)ChallengesWhat Makes Transport Sustainable in a Livable Community?Slide Number 9Assessing Sustainable TransportHow much space?Thank you