sustainable heating and cooling in sweden · sustainable heating and cooling in sweden dr. monica...
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Sustainable Heatingand Cooling in Sweden
Dr. Monica AxellBusiness Development Manager, RISE Division Built [email protected]
Expected energy developments
• Heating demand will remain significant
• Cooling demand will grow rapidly
• Flexibility more and more important
• Sector coupling – Buildings-Transport-
Industry
Sustainability
District Heating
and Cooling
Oil and GasBiomass Boiler
Electricity
Heat Pumps
Energy
Sweden
Supplied energy to district heating 1980-
2017
Other
Peat
Fossil
Renewable
Recovered
Heat demand
RISE — Mallpresentation 6
Utilisation Waste
Upgrading/(vehicle fuel)
Heating
Flaring
Power production
Industrial use
Other use
Missing data/losses
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
Heat Pump sales in Sweden 1982-2018
*Air-Air
Liquide-Water
Exhaust Air
Air-Water
* Air-Air HP: Sales figures estimated from 2012 due to low numbers of
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019*
Annual sales; Refrigeration & A/C, MSEK
Air Conditioning Industrial/Commercial
Market for cooling is growing in Sweden
Heat pumps are the most effective individual technology, but require competitive pricing of
electricity vs. gas to win
The era of oil and gas
Biomass, waste and independent Micro-Grids will play a niche role for local solutions
Heating grids are (where available/ new build in dense areas) the best option (scale effect …)
BiomassCombined
H/P
District Heat
Heatpump
The bi-polar world The heating future
Due to slow change rate, available infrastructure, and price gas willstay in the market for a long time
Oil becomes obsolete
Gas
Oil
Source: Pöyry, prognos AG, team analysis
Coal and direct electricity heating will fade out
Today Future
11
Green Gas
???
…will this come?
The heating market will change
Flexible system
temperatures
(°C)
Heating grids development
200 °C
150 °C
100 °C
50 °C
0 °C
System
temperature
1880 1930s 1970s 2010s
1st gen (>200°C)
2nd gen (>100°C)
3rd gen (80-100°C)
4th gen (<60(70)°C)
Warm hybrid
Cold hybrid
Low energy demands
Smart grid
(optimum interaction
of energy sources,
distribution and cons.)
2-way DH
Pre-insulated pipes
Industrialized compact
substations (insulated)
Metering and
monitoring
Pressurized hot water systems
Heavy equipment
Large stations
Steam Bidirectonal
Can deliver cooling and heating
Active components in buildings
Flexible temperatures
2:a gen smart grid
Recycles all thermal flows
5GDH
™
– Decarbonisation of the heating sector
– 14 EC countries (90 % av Europes heating market)
• Simulation of scenarios - 2050
• Conclusions:
– CO2 reduction with 86% - baseline 1990 (heating and cooling market)
– Well known technology:
• District heating in urban areas
• Heat pumps (individual or in district heating grid )
13
• District Heating - 50 % of heat demand
2050
– 12% today
• Large heat pumps - 25% of heat demand
– 95 GWth
• Heat pumps offer flexibility
• 95 GWth => 30 000 heat pumps in Europes
DHC - grid 2050 (assumption 3 MW in
average)
14
Europé DHC 2050 - HRE4
Källa: Heat Roadmap Europe
HP in Sweden DHC-system 2050
• 1,2 GW installed HP-capacity => 4
GW
– 1000 st new HP - 3MW
• 4,5 TWh/år =>12 TWh/år
– Less hours - full load
– HP is used to offer flexibility
15
Sweden 2050 (HRE4)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
De
live
red
en
erg
y (T
Wh
)
Installed heat capacity, Europe
DHC from HP in Sweden (TWh/år)
• Build 2007, 44 apartments - Energy efficient
• DHC –return - Floor heating and DHW
• Production DHW:
– Pre heating : Heat exchanger – DHC return
– Booster HP:
• Heat source : DHC return
• Heat demand: 88% DHC-return, 12% el
• Experience:
– Economy: In Karlstad: YES but depends on the cost of DHC
16
Kvarteret Seglet, Karlstad
CELSIUS – EU ProjectWe are a trustworthy and
independent organisation that has
been working with innovative
heating and cooling solutions.
They trust us!>70 cities engaged in smart heating and cooling>70 city supporters: research institutions, industry representatives, projects, cluster organisations & associations
Proud recipient
of…
…is a demand driven collaboration hub for
efficient, integrated heating and cooling
solutions supporting cities in their energy
transition to carbon-neutral systems.
Today Celsius…
… gathers and shares technical,
economic, social and policy expertise.
… connects members, exchange and
foster innovation, leading to
solutions that accelerate sustainable
development in Europe and across
the world.