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Sustainable Heatingand Cooling in Sweden
Dr. Monica AxellBusiness Development Manager, RISE Division Built [email protected]
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Expected energy developments
• Heating demand will remain significant
• Cooling demand will grow rapidly
• Flexibility more and more important
• Sector coupling – Buildings-Transport-
Industry
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Sustainability
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District Heating
and Cooling
Oil and GasBiomass Boiler
Electricity
Heat Pumps
Energy
Sweden
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Supplied energy to district heating 1980-
2017
Other
Peat
Fossil
Renewable
Recovered
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Heat demand
RISE — Mallpresentation 6
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Utilisation Waste
Upgrading/(vehicle fuel)
Heating
Flaring
Power production
Industrial use
Other use
Missing data/losses
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0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
160 000
Heat Pump sales in Sweden 1982-2018
*Air-Air
Liquide-Water
Exhaust Air
Air-Water
* Air-Air HP: Sales figures estimated from 2012 due to low numbers of
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0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018* 2019*
Annual sales; Refrigeration & A/C, MSEK
Air Conditioning Industrial/Commercial
Market for cooling is growing in Sweden
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Heat pumps are the most effective individual technology, but require competitive pricing of
electricity vs. gas to win
The era of oil and gas
Biomass, waste and independent Micro-Grids will play a niche role for local solutions
Heating grids are (where available/ new build in dense areas) the best option (scale effect …)
BiomassCombined
H/P
District Heat
Heatpump
The bi-polar world The heating future
Due to slow change rate, available infrastructure, and price gas willstay in the market for a long time
Oil becomes obsolete
Gas
Oil
Source: Pöyry, prognos AG, team analysis
Coal and direct electricity heating will fade out
Today Future
11
Green Gas
???
…will this come?
The heating market will change
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Flexible system
temperatures
(°C)
Heating grids development
200 °C
150 °C
100 °C
50 °C
0 °C
System
temperature
1880 1930s 1970s 2010s
1st gen (>200°C)
2nd gen (>100°C)
3rd gen (80-100°C)
4th gen (<60(70)°C)
Warm hybrid
Cold hybrid
Low energy demands
Smart grid
(optimum interaction
of energy sources,
distribution and cons.)
2-way DH
Pre-insulated pipes
Industrialized compact
substations (insulated)
Metering and
monitoring
Pressurized hot water systems
Heavy equipment
Large stations
Steam Bidirectonal
Can deliver cooling and heating
Active components in buildings
Flexible temperatures
2:a gen smart grid
Recycles all thermal flows
5GDH
™
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– Decarbonisation of the heating sector
– 14 EC countries (90 % av Europes heating market)
• Simulation of scenarios - 2050
• Conclusions:
– CO2 reduction with 86% - baseline 1990 (heating and cooling market)
– Well known technology:
• District heating in urban areas
• Heat pumps (individual or in district heating grid )
13
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• District Heating - 50 % of heat demand
2050
– 12% today
• Large heat pumps - 25% of heat demand
– 95 GWth
• Heat pumps offer flexibility
• 95 GWth => 30 000 heat pumps in Europes
DHC - grid 2050 (assumption 3 MW in
average)
14
Europé DHC 2050 - HRE4
Källa: Heat Roadmap Europe
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HP in Sweden DHC-system 2050
• 1,2 GW installed HP-capacity => 4
GW
– 1000 st new HP - 3MW
• 4,5 TWh/år =>12 TWh/år
– Less hours - full load
– HP is used to offer flexibility
15
Sweden 2050 (HRE4)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
De
live
red
en
erg
y (T
Wh
)
Installed heat capacity, Europe
DHC from HP in Sweden (TWh/år)
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• Build 2007, 44 apartments - Energy efficient
• DHC –return - Floor heating and DHW
• Production DHW:
– Pre heating : Heat exchanger – DHC return
– Booster HP:
• Heat source : DHC return
• Heat demand: 88% DHC-return, 12% el
• Experience:
– Economy: In Karlstad: YES but depends on the cost of DHC
16
Kvarteret Seglet, Karlstad
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CELSIUS – EU ProjectWe are a trustworthy and
independent organisation that has
been working with innovative
heating and cooling solutions.
They trust us!>70 cities engaged in smart heating and cooling>70 city supporters: research institutions, industry representatives, projects, cluster organisations & associations
Proud recipient
of…
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…is a demand driven collaboration hub for
efficient, integrated heating and cooling
solutions supporting cities in their energy
transition to carbon-neutral systems.
Today Celsius…
… gathers and shares technical,
economic, social and policy expertise.
… connects members, exchange and
foster innovation, leading to
solutions that accelerate sustainable
development in Europe and across
the world.