sustainable futures: energy paper

8/8/2019 Sustainable Futures: Energy Paper

1/34

1

Sustainable Resource Use Papers

Energy

By: Frank Spencer MSc(Eng), Alt-e Technologies

Date: 31st

October 2008

Version: 1.2

Prepared for: The Sustainability Institute and the City of Cape Town


2/34

2

Contents

Contents ..................................................................................................................................... 2

Table of Figures .......................................................................................................................... 3

1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 4

2 Terms of Reference ............................................................................................................ 4

3 Energy Policy and Cape Town ............................................................................................ 6

3.1 National Policy ............................................................................................................. 7

3.2 Western Cape Provincial Government Policy ............................................................. 9

3.3 City of Cape Town Local Government Policy .............................................................. 9

3.4 Renewable Energy Incentives ................................................................................... 10

4 Cape Town Current Energy Scenario Baseline ................................................................. 11

4.1 Types and sources of energy ..................................................................................... 11

4.2 Sustainability issues with current scenario ............................................................... 15

4.3 Current Projections for a Future Scenario ................................................................ 18

5 Future Cape Town Energy Scenario ................................................................................. 24

5.1 Key Process ................................................................................................................ 24

5.2 Proposed energy supply ............................................................................................ 25

6 Technical Interventions .................................................................................................... 29

6.1 Production Interventions .......................................................................................... 29

6.2 Consumption Interventions ...................................................................................... 30

7 Key goals for sustainable energy ..................................................................................... 31

7.1 Policy ......................................................................................................................... 31

7.2 Production ................................................................................................................. 31

7.3 Consumption: Residential ......................................................................................... 32

7.4 Consumption: Commercial/Industrial ....................................................................... 32

7.5 Transport ................................................................................................................... 33

8 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................... 33

Bibliography ............................................................................................................................. 34


3/34

3

Table of Figures

Figure 1: Summary of Policy ...................................................................................................... 6

Figure 2: Energy Demand by Fuel Source ................................................................................ 12

Figure 3: Energy Demand by Sector ......................................................................................... 12

Figure 4: Total Energy Supply at 2050 - Business as Usual ...................................................... 18

Figure 5: Annual direct and diffuse solar radiation ................................................................. 19

Figure 6: Generalised map of wind power potential in South Africa ...................................... 20

Figure 7: Total biomass energy potential for South Africa ...................................................... 20

Figure 8: Areas with micro hydro potential in South Africa .................................................... 21

Figure 9: Potential job creation: renewable energy vs coal-fired power stations .................. 21

Figure 10: Potential mix of Renewables in the Western Cape ................................................ 22

Figure 11: Potential Power production from Renewables Western Cape ........................... 22

Figure 12: Total Energy Supply at 2050 - Sustainable.............................................................. 25

Figure 13: Energy Supply by sector at 2050 ............................................................................. 26

Figure 14: Electricity by Source in 2050 ................................................................................... 27

Figure 15: Generation by Renewables / Fossil 2050 ............................................................... 27

Figure 16: Renewables Contribution 2050 .............................................................................. 28


4/34

4

1 Introduction

The City of Cape Town faces some dynamic challenges in the near future when it comes to

energy and climate change. Currently, practically all of the energy consumed in the city

comes from outside of the citys boundaries or control. This energy includes a large portion

of carbon emissions.

This paper discusses the current energy scenario in Cape Town, starting with the policy that

directs it, through the current energy case, to a scenario of best sustainable practices. The

paper will argue that, with a little bit of determination, much can be accomplished to bring

more energy security to Cape Town while protecting our environment.

2 Terms of Reference

The City of Cape Town requested that thirteen Sustainable Resource Use papers be written.

The aims of the Sustainable Resource Papers are:

To demonstrate that the current resource use approach does not make financial and

ecological sense over the long term and therefore it is necessary to change over to a

sustainable resource use approach

To promote and encourage goals and targets for a sustainable future for Cape Town.

This paper specifically covers the topic ofENERGY.

Specific Questions for this paper on Energy are:

What is the ideal mix of energy types for Cape Town (e.g. biofuels, conventional,

etc), and how can energy conservation best be achieved.

The key points to bear in mind for this paper are:

A. What target/goals should be set for this sector in order to achieve a

Sustainable Cape Town?

B. Flows per sector

C. Existing Infrastructure what is sustainable and what is not? Provide a

summary of possible technology options and alternatives to better manage the

resource on a more sustainable basis;

D. What are the environmental impacts of current technologies and approaches;

E. What technological solutions could be adopted to make this sector sustainable?


5/34

5

F. Finances: what about ecological costs and the costs of upgrading systems that

are not sustainable?

G. Key challenges and problems from a sustainability perspective

H. Emerging policy frameworks what institutional arrangements and decision

making processes are emerging, with respect to more sustainable resource use

approaches, and what are their impacts?

I. Linkages to poverty, inequality, and sustainable resource use

J. How is the future seen/imagined by key stakeholders/experts in the sector?

K. Which ones have a sustainability orientation?

L. What are the dialogues taking place in each sector?

M. What behavioural changes must occur and how can these be incentivized in

order to make this sector more sustainable?

N. What is unsustainable about CTs current systems?


6/34

6

3 Energy Policy and Cape Town

The impact of government policy on the direction of energy cannot be underestimated.

Policy is what gives investors and project developers direction and surety. The National,

Western Cape, and City of Cape Town policies are reviewed below, as well as specific

Renewable Energy incentives.

Figure 1: Summary of Policy

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

National Provincial WC Local CCT

Gas Act

Petroleum Products

Amendment Act

National Energy Regulator Act

White Paper on Renewable

Energy & Clean Energy

Development (Draft)

Municipal Systems Act #32

Energy White Paper

Sustainable Energy Strategy

for the Western Cape

Renewable Energy Plan of

Action for the Western Cape

State of Energy Report for

Cape Town

Cape Town Energy and

Climate Change Strategy

Cape Town Energy Futures

Report

Cape Town Draft Solar Water

Heater Bylaw


7/34

7

3.1 National Policy

During the apartheid years, energy policy was driven by a need to be self-sufficient. The

consequence is that South Africa is now dependent on dirty, inefficient fuels, the energy

sector is dominated by a few large players, and poor communities have inadequate access

to affordable and safe fuels.

Current policy represents a shift in direction towards improving access to energy, to

particularly for previously disadvantaged communities, although sustainability has yet to

emerge as a key priority.

3.1.1 Energy White Paper of 1998

The aims of this paper are to:

Increase access to affordable energy services;

Improve energy governance and restructure government assets;

Manage energy-related environmental impacts;

Secure supply through diversity and open markets;

Stimulate economic development create SMMEs and export opportunities;

Assist previously disadvantaged people to gain entry to the energy sector; Allow unrestricted market access to the liquid fuels market;

Manage energy-related environmental impacts.

An Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) is promoted as a tool to guide strategic decision

making. IRP supports demand-side as well as supply-side options and includes social and

environmental factors and externalities.

The City of Cape Town Electricity Department has produced a local IRP for the electricitysector in the metro area, which has been approved by Council.

3.1.2 Municipal Systems Act No 32 of 2000

Section 23 of the Act directs municipalities to:

Produce integrated development plans for the medium-term development of their

municipal areas to meet the needs of their communities;

Provide sustainable services to their communities;


8/34

8

Promote increased community involvement in the provision of energy services.

3.1.3 White Paper on Renewable Energy & Clean Energy Development (Draft

2002)

This Paper:

Recognises the important role of renewable energy technologies in the long-term

sustainability of energy in South Africa;

Sets a ten-year target of increasing the use of renewable energy in final energy

consumption to 10,000 GWh/annum.

This document does not provide any specific guidance to the use of Renewables.

3.1.4 National Energy Regulator Act of 2004

This Act mandates NERSA (National Energy Regulator of South Africa) to:

Regulate the electricity, piped gas and liquid fuel markets in South Africa;

Promote private sector participation in these industries;

Prevent abuse by monopolies.

NERSA should promote access and competition to the markets dominated by Eskom,

Petronet and Sasol, although to date little in this space has been achieved.

3.1.5 Petroleum Products Amendment Act 2003, Act 58 of 2003

This Act was promulgated to:

Promote efficient manufacturing, wholesaling and retailing in the petroleum

industry;

Facilitate an environment conducive to efficient and commercially justifiable

investment;

Promote the advancement of historically disadvantaged individuals;

Create employment opportunities and small businesses in the petroleum sector.


9/34

9

3.1.6 Gas Act of 2001

The gas act of 2001 was passed to

Provide a regulatory framework for storage, transmission, distribution and trading of

gas;

Establish a gas regulator;

Promote access to transmission by third parties.

3.2 Western Cape Provincial Government Policy

3.2.1 Sustainable Energy Strategy for the Western Cape, May 2007

This document highlights areas in the Western Cape in which sustainable interventions are

possible and develops action plans around how to achieve these goals.

3.2.2 Renewable Energy Plan of Action for the Western Cape, 2007

This document contains a detailed analysis of the potential for renewable energy in the

Western Cape. Several scenarios from conservative to aggressive renewable energy use are

considered, and a renewable energy strategy is proposed.

3.3 City of Cape Town Local Government Policy

3.3.1 State of Energy Report for Cape Town, 2007

This report is a comprehensive baseline summary of all the energy supply and demand per

sector in Cape Town.

3.3.2 City of Cape Town Cape Town Energy and Climate Change Strategy, 2005

This document sets sustainable goals on the supply side and demand side of energy, and

lists both short and long term targets and measures required to achieve these goals.


10/34

10

3.3.3 Cape Town Energy Futures Report, January 2005

This report establishes a demand baseline for the City and projects Cape Towns energy

consumption for the future.

3.3.4 City of Cape Town Draft Solar Water Heater Bylaw, June 2007

This proposed by-law seeks to introduce legislation that would require all new houses larger

than 100m2

to be fitted with solar water heaters. This law has encountered some legal

challenges and is currently on hold.

3.4 Renewable Energy Incentives

There are very few incentives for Renewable Energy project developers. Nevertheless, the

following exist:

REFSO - set up by the DME, this body offers funding of R250 per kW of generation

potential for renewable energy projects undertaken. This will not make a greatimpact on the development of Renewables, but does create the message that DME

supports renewable energy initiatives.

ESKOM DSM SWH program this is an incentive scheme providing a subsidy of

R2000 R4000 per SWH system (approximately 10-20% subsidy) installed in a

residential house. This is probably not sufficient to drive large scale adoption of

SWH, but is considered a positive step in the right direction.

Carbon Credits - Projects which can be proved to reduce carbon emissions can

receive funding from the Clean Development Mechanism in the compliance carbon

trading markets, or through voluntary trading schemes.

It is likely that a Renewable Energy Feed-In Tariff could become available in 2009/2010.


11/34

11

4 Cape Town Current Energy Scenario Baseline

Currently most households are serviced with electricity, although about 29700 households

(approximately 145000 people) are still without (Cape Town IDP 2007).

The City of Cape Towns State of Cape Town report predicts that:

The citys population growth rate will slow dramatically over the next 15 years, with

an expected increase in population of about 300 000 to 3.6 million people by 2021.

The report also states that there is a housing backlog of between 265 000 and 300

000 units.

Gross Geographical Product has remained at 4.5% over the last 4 years, and short

term predictions are that growth will remain around 4%.

Energy is a huge creator of wealth and employment in Cape Town (Sustainable Energy Africa

2007, p.iii).

4.1 Types and sources of energy

Cape Towns major sources of energy and the energy sectors which consume them are

shown in the table and graphs below:

User Group Households

Industry &

Commerce

Local

Authority Transport Total Total %

Electricity PJ1

17.97 24.76 1.75 44.47 29%

Petrol PJ 0.12 42.29 42.41 28%

Diesel PJ 13.16 0.23 14.34 27.73 18%

Heavy Furnace

Oil PJ 4.70 4.70 3%

Paraffin PJ 2.59 0.44 3.03 2%

Jet Fuel PJ 13.62 13.62 9%

LPG PJ 0.55 2.72 3.27 2%

Coal PJ 0.04 10.79 10.83 7%

Wood PJ 0.36 0.56 0.92 1%

Total PJ 21.51 57.12 2.10 70.25 150.98 100%

Total % % 14% 38% 1% 47% 100%Table 1: Summary of Cape Town's Energy Consumption (2006)

Sources: Fuel:SAPIA; Electricity: City of Cape Town Electricity Dept, CT State of Energy Report 2003,

SA State of Cities Report (SEA 2006), CT Energy Futures Report (2005), Household Numbers in

1Note: 1 PJ = 278 GWh


12/34

12

Cape Town-Discussion Document (CCT, Aug 2006); Coal: Imibono Fuels Personal Discussion, CT

State of Energy Report 2003; Wood: CTSOER 2003

Figure 2: Energy Demand by Fuel Source Figure 3: Energy Demand by Sector

As can be seen from the graphs, the major sources of energy are Electricity and Liquid Fuels,

while Transportation and Commerce / Industry consume most of this energy.

4.1.1 Electricity

Cape Town consumed approximately 12,000 GWh (44 PJ or 3,090 kWh/person/year in

2006), which contributed 50 59% of the cities CO2 emissions. Average retail price was

27c/kWh.

Some power is supplied directly by ESKOM, and some through the Citys Electrical

department. The following graph shows the revenue split between ESKOM and Cape Town

for July 2006 June 2007.


13/34

13

This installed supply capacity is summarised as follows:

Producer Type MW %

ESKOM Transmission lines (Coal) 2600 50%

ESKOM Nuclear 1800 34%

ESKOM Palmiet Pumped Storage 400 8%

CCT Steenbras Pumped Storage 168 3%

ESKOM Acacia Gas Turbine 171 3%

CCT Roggebaai & Athlone Gas Turbine 80 2%

TOTAL: 5219

Sources: Eskom, CCT Electricity Dept, Andrew Kenny Presentation (Mar 2006)

All of Cape Towns power is brought in over the ESKOM grid. The Steenbras Pumped Storage

facility does not produce any power, it only stores power, and helps level out the difference

between low and high demand. The Open Cycle Gas Turbines are extremely expensive to

operate compared to the ESKOM supply price.

South Africa is currently experiencing an electricity crisis, primarily due to capacity issues

(demand outstripping supply) and quality of supply of electricity from ESKOM. These directly

impact on the service that Cape Town is able to provide.

Although most of the electricity is purchased from ESKOM, a small portion of green

electricity is purchased from the Darling wind farm (5.2MW installed capacity) at a premium

price. This is wheeled over the ESKOM grid to Cape Town.


14/34

14

4.1.2 Liquid Fuels

Liquid fuels currently make up 60% of all energy used in Cape Town, primarily for transport,

industrial heating and household cooking and heating. Of these, the dominant are petrol,

diesel and jet fuel. Cape Towns average demand for refined liquid fuels is approximately

46,200 barrels of oil per day2.

Calref, the Cape Town based Chevron-owned oil refinery, provides Cape Town with most of

her liquid fuels. The refinery processes over 100 000 barrels per day3

and would cost about

USD1 billion to replace. The amount of refined fuel imported is expected to grow in the

future as South Africas demand for fuel exceeds its ability to refine.

2 SAPIA fuel sales data for 2006, SAPIA 20073

SAPIA Annual Report 2005


15/34

15

4.2 Sustainability issues with current scenario

The current energy scenario has a number of fundamental flaws which are discussed below.

4.2.1 Electricity

The following concerns exist for the ongoing supply of electricity:

Increasing demand for services with a supply that is currently constrained due to:

o Actual transmission capacity into Cape Town.

o Ability of ESKOM to meet National peak demands.

Increasing energy demand for water due to increasing water scarcity (possible future

desalination plants). Increasing demand for HVAC, refrigeration and water heating, often without using

the most efficient technologies4.

Dramatically increasing price of electricity from ESKOM (more than 40% pa).

ESKOM set targets for reduction in demand, with steep penalties for non-compliance

Tariff increases that historically have been below inflation.

High Carbon and other emissions from coal based electricity, especially when

considering the losses from long transmission lines.

Coal is a dwindling resource internationally which will place pricing pressure on localsupply to ESKOM.

Nuclear (including PBMR) is considered an unsustainable future supply due to

massively rising costs5.

4.2.2 Liquid Fuels

The following concerns exist for the ongoing supply of liquid fuels:

There are ongoing international pressures on the supply of oil.

By 2012 there is likely to be a shortfall in the ability to produce enough liquid fuel6.

Lack of fuel could impact tourism due to reduce air flights.

4In commenting on the growth in energy demand in China: half the demand growth is die to largely wasted

air conditioning and refrigeration (Lovins & Sheikh 2008, p.39) there is similar wastage in SA too.

5..Nuclear is so costly and slow relative to its winning competitors that it will retard the provision of energy

services (Lovins & Sheikh 2008, p.3)6

SAPIA Annual Report 2005


16/34

16

Paraffin for cooking and heating is a dangerous and inefficient fuel choice.

4.2.3 Transport

Transport has the following issues in terms of sustainability:

Energy consumption per km per capita is high due to high usage of cars with low

occupancy.

Busses (Golden Arrow) are poorly designed in terms of aerodynamics and have

inefficient engines.

Rail, the most sustainable form of transport due to its low energy consumption per

km per capita, is not used as extensively as could be possible.

4.2.4 Carbon Emissions

High energy usage normally translates directly to high CO2 emissions. CO2 and equivalent

emissions are considered to be the primary cause of accelerating climate change. Both

electricity and liquid fuels produce a high amount of CO2 emissions, as shown in the table

below:

User Group HouseholdsIndustry &Commerce

LocalAuthority Transport Total Total %

Electricity CO2 (t) 4362575 6648614 469273 11480462 59%

Petrol CO2 (t) 8768 3123417 3132185 16%

Diesel CO2 (t) 968720 17254 1055332 2041306 11%

Heavy Furnace Oil CO2 (t) 346309 346309 2%

Paraffin CO2 (t) 189346 32475 221821 1%

Jet Fuel CO2 (t) 996658 996658 5%

LPG CO2 (t) 30085 149498 179582 1%

Coal CO2 (t) 4080 1014072 1018152 5%

Wood CO2 (t) 0%Total CO2 (t) 4586085 9159688 495295 5175406 19416474 100%

% 24% 47% 3% 27% 100%

Table Showing CO2 Emissions in CT (2006/7)

Sources: Fuel:SAPIA; Electricity: City of Cape Town Electricity Dept, CT State of Energy Report 2003,

SA State of Cities Report (SEA 2006), CT Energy Futures Report (2005), Household Numbers in

Cape Town-Discussion Document (CCT, Aug 2006); Coal: Imibono Fuels Personal Discussion, CT

State of Energy Report 2003; Wood: CTSOER 2003


17/34

17

Cape Towns CO2 emissions per capita are 6.4 tons CO2 / person / year (PDG 2007, p.25).

Cement and steel, some of the primary building resources, consume a large amount of

energy in their production, and thus the embodied CO2 emissions for these materials are

extremely high. These are used extensively in the city, and thus these CO2 emissions are

imported into the city.

A significant number of goods, including food, are imported from far away from the city,

increasing the imported CO2 emissions, where some of these goods could be grown more

locally.


18/34

18

4.3 Current Projections for a Future Scenario

4.3.1 Future total energy requirements

Assuming a 4% growth in all sectors in a business as usual scenario, the 2050 requirements

for energy will be around 529 PJ, broken down as follows:


Industry &

Commerce

Local


Electricity PJ 93.31 128.55 9.07 0.00 230.93 29%

Petrol PJ 0.62 219.62 220.24 28%

Diesel PJ 68.34 1.22 74.45 144.00 18%Heavy Furnace

Oil PJ 24.39 24.39 3%

Paraffin PJ 13.43 2.30 15.74 2%

Jet Fuel PJ 0.00 0.00 70.70 70.70 9%

LPG PJ 2.84 14.11 16.96 2%

Coal PJ 0.23 56.02 56.25 7%

Wood PJ 1.86 2.91 4.78 1%

Total PJ 111.67 296.63 10.91 364.77 783.98 100%

Total % % 14% 38% 1% 47% 100%

Total electrical demand is equivalent to 64,000 GWh.

Figure 4: Total Energy Supply at 2050 - Business as Usual


19/34

19

4.3.2 Future Renewables projection

South Africa has large potential for Renewable Energy and job creation from Renewable

Energy, as illustrated by the following graphs from the White Paper on Renewable Energy

(DME 2003):

Figure 5: Annual direct and diffuse solar radiation


20/34

20

Figure 6: Generalised map of wind power potential in South Africa

Figure 7: Total biomass energy potential for South Africa


21/34

21

Figure 8: Areas with micro hydro potential in South Africa

Figure 9: Potential job creation: renewable energy vs coal-fired power stations

As can be seen from the above, there are opportunities in the Western Cape in all the

Renewable Energy sectors to produce energy and employment.


22/34

22

The Western Cape government has set a target of 12% renewable power source by 2014. In

their recently released Renewable Energy Plan of Action for the Western Cape (Banks &

Schaffler 2007), the following projections can be found:

Figure 10: Potential mix of Renewables in the Western Cape

Wind 3000MW

Ocean 1000MW

SolarPV 247MW

Hydro 15MWSolar thermal 1400MW

Pumped Storage 1800MW

Total 7452MW

Figure 11: Potential Power production from

Renewables Western Cape

Biomass CogenHydro

Municipal WastePumped Storage

Solar PV off grid

Solar PV grid con.Solar Th Elec no st.

Solar Th Elec with st.Ocean Energy

Wind High CF

Wind Medium CFImp Ren Energy

New Nuclear

New foss mid and pkNew Fossil Base

Exist mid and peakExisting Base

Transformation Results: Capacity

Scenario: Prog Ren Ref Dem, Capacity: All Capacities

2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035

9,500

9,000

8,500

8,000

7,500

7,000

6,500

6,000

5,500

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0


23/34

23

The Cape Town Draft Energy and Climate Change Strategy calls for 10% of power to come

from Renewable Energy Sources, in particular Solar wind and hydro.

Thus, the following targets have been set for Cape Town (DEADP 2008):

Technology Target Energy Saving Load

Reduction

SWH Houses: 10% by 2010, 50% by 2024. 5700GWH over 20

years

375MW

EE Lighting Commercial + Local Authorities: 100%

by 2010

Residential: 30% by 2010, 90% by

2020

7700GWh over 20

years

290MW

Ceilings CCT Target: Retrofit existing houses

by 2020

365 GWH by 2024

Efficient

HVAC

20% reduction in energy used by

HVAC by 2020

950 GWh by 2024

Transport 150million GJ

These targets, in light of a current total consumption 150 PJ/year (42,000 GWh/year), and

12,000 GWh in electricity consumption, are extremely low, let alone compared to the 2050

growth as business as usual of 783 PJ/year. Based on the large availability of Renewable

Energy resources, we propose to do better!


24/34

24

5 Future Cape Town Energy Scenario

5.1 Key Process

In times of war and crisis, governments have been able to roll out incredible expansions ofinfrastructure. We currently face a greater enemy than hostile nations, namely our own

inability to care for our planet. As such, we really do need to respond as if it was a time of

extreme crisis, and implement programs that radically seize the window that we have to

reduce Carbon Emissions in a manner that does not compromise peoples happiness or the

future well-being of our children.

In this section a best case scenario is proposed where all interventions are pushed to their limits to

produce an extremely sustainable city.

As a first step, energy efficiency needs to be given a number one priority. With an aggressive

approach, it may be possible to reduce the energy consumption from the business-as-usual

scenario by up to 50% by 2050. This would require significant changes in the way that

buildings are built and consume energy.

Energy Efficiency interventions should include, amongst others:

All new building to be energy efficient, with passive designs for heating and cooling. Extensive Solar Water Heating, preferably every house by 2050.

Correct orientation, ceilings and insulation in all low-cost housing.

Efficient HVAC, with heat recovery for other processes.

The capacity for local renewable energy should be exploited as fast as possible. The

proposed 7.4GW of power in the Western Cape Should be developed faster than 2035. In

fact, a goal of producing 50% of the Citys energy from local sources should be set for 2050.

A local carbon trading scheme, in the like of the Chicago Climate Exchange, should be

developed for the city. Companies should be strongly encouraged to participate.

Where possible, alternatives to cement and steel, based on local building materials, should

be promoted where appropriate.

Consumer behaviour change will need to be pushed hard.


25/34

25

5.2 Proposed energy supply

The following table proposes various targets to achieve. Energy efficiency plays a major role

in reducing the business-as-usual scenario from 784 PJ to 444 PJ. Electricity still plays a

dominant role, but the source is shifted dramatically to Renewable Energy.


Industry &

Commerce

Local


Electricity PJ 37.32 79.27 5.44 122.04 27%

Petrol PJ 87.85 87.85 20%

Diesel PJ 34.00 1.22 35.00 70.22 16%

Heavy Furnace

Oil PJ 0.00 0%Paraffin PJ 0.00 0%

Biofuels PJ 5.00 20.00 0.50 35.00 60.50 14%

Jet Fuel PJ 56.56 56.56 13%

LPG PJ 2.84 14.11 16.96 4%

Coal PJ 0.23 25.00 25.23 6%

Wood PJ 1.86 2.91 4.78 1%

Total PJ 47.25 175.30 7.16 214.41 444.13 100%

Total % % 11% 39% 2% 48% 100%

Figure 12: Total Energy Supply at 2050 - Sustainable


26/34

26

Figure 13: Energy Supply by sector at 2050

The following table shows the proposed electricity breakdownEfficiency (as a Virtual

Power Station) is a major contributor.

Producer Type MW % GWh % CapacityESKOM Transmission lines (Coal) 5200 13% 11388 14.1% 25%

ESKOM Nuclear 0 0% 0 0.0%

ESKOM Palmiet Pumped Storage 400 1% 350.4 0.4% 10%

ESKOM Gas Turbine 171 0% 150 0.2% 10%

CCT Efficiency 3523 9% 30863 38.1% 100%

CCT Pumped Storage 10000 24% 0.0%

CCT Gas Turbine 2000 5% 1752 2.2% 10%

CCT Renewables 20000 48% 36500 45.1% 21%

TOTAL: 41294 81003

The following graph shows the generation split between ESKOM and CCT (excluding pumped

storage):

11%

39%

2%

48%

Energy Supply by Sector 2050

Households

Industry & Commerce

Local Authority

Transport


27/34

27

Figure 14: Electricity by Source in 2050

Further break down of Renewables (excluding bio-fuels) is shown as follows:

Renewable Source MW %

Wind 10300 34.3%

Ocean 3000 10.0%

SolarPV 1000 3.3%

Hydro 500 1.7%

Solar thermal 5200 17.3%

Pumped Storage 10000 33.3%

Total 30000

Figure 15: Generation by Renewables / Fossil 2050


28/34

28

Figure 16: Renewables Contribution 2050


29/34

29

6 Technical Interventions

Technical Interventions can be classified into two main categories:

Production changes in technology choices to PRODUCEenergy.

Consumption changes in technology choices that in fact how energy is CONSUMED

and how EFFICIENTLYit is consumed.

6.1 Production Interventions

When considering production of various energy sources, the end source energy service

demand needs to be considered. For example, paraffin is produced to meet the energy

service need of lighting and cooking. Thus the actual energy service required (lightingcooking) can be met by an alternative, such as an ethanol gel fuel.

1) Local Renewable Production

To improve energy security and mitigate climate change impacts, electricity and biofuels

should be produced locally.

Solar Water Heaters should be installed on every roof, and especially on government

buildings, schools, hospitals, clinics and hotels.

Large scale Renewable Energy investment - Incentives, tax breaks or feed-in-tariffsshould be promoted by the city for those home owners who wish to generate their

own power within the city, and for the large projects to build on the edge of the city.

Biogas should be produced wherever feasible.

Many of these have short paybacks if there is adequate policy to support them. The

environmental benefits and energy security concerns must also be factored into the

evaluation of these technologies.

2) Virtual Power Stations

Promote the idea of a Virtual Power Station, which is in fact the culmination of energy

saving interventions, discussed below.


30/34

30

6.2 Consumption Interventions

Consumption interventions mainly impact on howenergy is consumed, both in terms of

energy efficiency (e.g. energy efficient lighting) and behaviour change (e.g. switching off

lights in unoccupied rooms).

1) Energy Saving Plan (City IDP 2008) - The City must develop an energy saving plan

incorporating targets that align with the requirements of science, particularly the South

African Long Term Mitigation Strategy (LTMS) for Climate Change.

2) Energy Efficiency - This should be the number 1 priority. Sector wide strategies for

reducing energy consumption need to be planned. Targets should be 50% below

business as usual by 2050.

3) Variable Tariffs - High energy users should pay a premium for their electricity usage.

4) Smart Meters - Meters which allow users to regularly see their consumption should be

increased.

5) Efficient Cooking minimal traditional electricity, maximise efficient cooking such as

microwaves and pressure cookers. Use LPG where others are not available.

6) Local Building materials - Locally sourced building materials rather than cement and

steel should be used wherever possible.

7) Transport - Public transport must be promoted extensively. Alternative cooling systems

nitrogen CO2 leading 25% increased diesel consumption.

If implemented correctly, the above items will help with decoupling growth from energy

consumption.


31/34

31

7 Key goals for sustainable energy

Based on the discussion above, the following key goals for Cape Town for the production of

sustainable energy are recommended:

7.1 Policy

Policy should support the following outcomes:

1. Energy security through local production of sustainable cost effective energy.

2. Energy efficiency and reduced energy demand per capita.

3. Extensive support for Independent Power Producers, particularly through the use of

incentives, tax breaks, feed-in-tariffs or the like.4. Increased support for energy skills.

5. Promotion of job creation where low energy consumption per job created takes

preference over high energy consumption per job created (e.g. smelters).

6. Support for local manufacturing of green technologies.

7. Incentives for houses and buildings that operate completely off grid.

8. Marketing support for green buildings or green floors7.

7.2 Production

The following energy production outcomes should be seen:

1. Re-use of waste energy sources for biogas or other energy production (e.g. waste

biomass, sewerage, solid waste).

2. Local production of electrical energy through the promotion of Renewables, both

small-scale and large.

3. Local production of sustainable bio-fuels.

4. Local job creation in energy production Renewables created more jobs than

conventional energy systems.

5. All municipal buildings to produce 10% of the electricity or heat on-site.

7 A green floor is a particular floor of a multi-story building whose power comes totally from local sustainable

renewable energy produced on or in the building


32/34


33/34

33

7.5 Transport

The following outcomes should be seen in the energy usage of transport systems:

1. Low energy and carbon emissions per person transported through extensive use of

rail and mass transit systems (new busses) by most commuters.

2. Reduced fossil fuel dependence through the use of sustainable second-generation

bio-fuel as a blend in all diesel and petrol.

3. Reduced energy and carbon emissions per person through significant movement to

hybrid and electric vehicles.

4. Energy for electric vehicle to be locally produced.

5. Promote pedestrianisation throughout the city.

6. Energy intensity per capita should be reduced by at least 50%.

8 Conclusions

Cape Town is currently dependent almost entirely on energy resources that enter the city

from beyond her control. As such, we are completely at the mercy of international marketsand national policymakers. A significant portion of the citys revenue leaves the boundaries

of the city due to the sources of energy this money could be put to better use within the

City.

Not only that, both the behaviour of those consuming Energy in City, as well as throughout

the rest of the world, is exacerbating climate change through the release of greenhouse

gasses such as CO2.

But it does not need to be like that. There are massive opportunities for improvement in the

way the City produces and consumes energy and energy services, so much so that it could

possibly be cut in half without compromising service delivery and social justice.

It is our hope that as a City we will dream big and act wisely to bring about a sustainable

energy future for Cape Town.


34/34

Bibliography

Banks, D & Schaffler, J 2007,A Proposed Renewable Energy Plan of Action for the Western

Cape, DEADP.

DEADP 2008,A climate change strategy and action plan for the Western Cape, DEADP.

DME 2003, White Paper on Renewable Energy. Department of Minerals and Energy.

Retrieved April 18, 2008, from

http://www.dme.gov.za/pdfs/energy/renewable/white_paper_renewable_energy.p

df

Lovins, A & Sheikh, I 2008, The Nuclear Illusion.Ambio, vol. Nov 08 preprint, dr 18.

Retrieved October 20, 2008, from http://www.rmi.org/images/PDFs/Energy/E08-

01_AmbioNuclIlusion.pdf

PDG 2007, State of Energy Report for the City of Cape Town 2007, Palmer Development

Group. Retrieved from

http://www.capetown.gov.za/en/EnvironmentalResourceManagement/publications

/Pages/Reportsand.aspx#state%20of%20energy

Sustainable Energy Africa 2007, Energy Baseline Analysis, commissioned by the UNDP and

Sustainability Institute.

sustainable futures: energy paper

Documents