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Supply Chain Opportunities from Electrification of Vehicles
Fit 4 ElectrificationMay 2019
Phil Whiffin
Advanced Propulsion Systems
WMG, The University of Warwick [email protected]
Drivers for Electrification in Automotive
Electrification
Climate Change &
Air Quality
Industrial Opportunity
$
Energy Security
Source:Cornell University from Edwards 2001
Consumer demand
Source:Adweek
©2018
Electrification roadmap
Conventional
Mild Hybrid
Full Hybrid
PHEV
EV
Engine Motor
REEV
“Battery”
100kWFull transient
Starter motorStop/start
12V3kW, 1kWh
90-100kWFull transient
3-13kWTorque boost / re-gen
12-48V5-15kW, 1kWh
60-80kWLess transient
20-40kWLimited EV mode
100-300V20-40kW, 2kWh
40-60kWLess transient
40-60kWStronger EV mode
300-600V40-60kW, 5-20kWh
30-50kWNo transient
100kWFull EV mode
300-600V100kW, 10-30kWh
No Engine 100kWFull EV mode
300-600V100kW, 20-60kWh
©2018
Biggest challenge for commercialization is battery cost
©WMG 2018
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Sales Volume Trend for Electrified Vehicles (indicative)
ICE / 12V Stop start ICE/48V MHEV ICE/Full Hybrid ICE/PHEV or REEV BEV Fuel Cell
Market for engine components and systems still exists until at least 2035, and aftermarket until 2050
But value will diminish
Has an engine (of some form)
Electrification will not happen overnight…
©2018
Market for motors, power electronics and battery systems grows quickly
Easiest to enter market whilst small
Has Battery, Motor and Power Electronics
The battery is the defining component of the electric vehicle
©WMG 2018
Lithium Ion batteries are improving rapidlyCosts have fallen dramatically due to technology, production volume and market dynamics
Pack cost fallen from $1,000/kWh to <$250/kWh in less than 8 years
Nykvist et al 2014
Volumetric energy density is increasing due to better materials and cell structure
Doubled in 15 years
Requires continued innovation to continue
©2018
Plug-In Vehicle sales in Europe 2017
©WMG 2018
Batteries are a major commercial opportunity
Conventional Vehicle
One third of conventional vehicle cost is powertrain
UK manufactures 1.7M cars per year, EU makes 18M per year
Assuming constant volumes and average battery pack cost of £6000 car, and 50% EV/PHEV share by 2035
This represents a UK supply chain opportunity of >£5bn/year by 2035
EU supply chain opportunity of over £50bn/yr at 2035
Rate of EV/PHEV market growth determined by customer uptake
Uptake will be determined by vehicle cost, range, charging infrastructure and fiscal regime
Electric Vehicle
Motor and power electronics cost around 60% of conventional powertrain
Battery costs around 3-5x current powertrain
Rest of vehicle costs similar as before –increased costs for HVAC, brakes and suspension systems
Battery is >50% of overall vehicle value
£
Report Ref: p.1; p.9 ©2018
Typical EV battery weighs 400-800kg and fits under car floor
©WMG 2018
Automotive pack construction
©WMG 2018
Automotive battery: Cell construction
©WMG 2018
Automotive battery: Module components
1. Casing: Metal casing provides mechanical support to the cells and holds them under slight compression for best performance.
2. Clamping Frame: Steel clamping frames secure the modules to the battery case.
3. Temperature Sensors: Sensors in the modules monitor the cell temperatures to allow the battery management system to control cooling and power delivery within safe limits.
4. Cells: Each module in a pack contains the same number of cells. The number of cells varies by format and usage requirements.
5. Terminals: Two terminals on the module allow it to be electrically connected to other modules via the bus bars.
6. Tab Interconnects: each cell has two tabs – one positive and one negative. These are welded together in series then connected to the terminals.
7. Cooling Channels: Liquid coolant runs between rows of cells to withdraw heat and avoid thermal runaway. Other packs, such as Nissan Leaf, instead use air cooling.
Sample module: Nissan Leaf
Sample module: Tesla Model S
©WMG 2018
Automotive battery: Pack components
1. Upper case: Provides fire protection and watertight casing for the battery components and protects it from dirt ingress. Also shields service personnel from high voltage components.
2. Battery modules: A ‘module’ is formed by connecting multiple ‘cells’, supporting those cells in a structural frame and then attaching terminals. Modules are designed according to cell format and vehicle requirements.
3. Bus Bars: Electrically connect the battery modules together, and connect the modules to the contactors.
4. Contactors: Electrically isolate the battery pack from the vehicle. Closed upon completion of safety tests and opened in the event of a crash or battery fault.
5. Fusing: Fuses protect expensive components from damage due to power surges and faults.
6. Disconnect: Used to electrically isolate the battery from the vehicle during servicing or maintenance.
7. Cooling: Modules require cooling. Packs may be cooled using air, water or vehicle air conditioning fluid.
8. Battery Management System (BMS): The BMS ensures the cells remain within their safe operating temperatures and voltages. It measures the remaining charge in the battery and reports on state of health. It also ensures the battery is correctly connected and isolated before closing the contactors.
9. Lower case: Structural casing supports the mass of the battery pack and protects it from damage.
Sample pack: Nissan Leaf
©WMG 2018
What do we need from an automotive electric machine ?
Efficiency• Motor efficiency affects battery size
• 1% efficiency = $100-200 pack cost
• Efficiency matters at motorway conditions (130kph / 20-30kW)
• Peak efficiency is irrelevant Focus here !
Source: Oak Ridge National LabsIntegration
Quality
• 6σ quality at 500,000 – 1M p.a.
Cost
• $/kW optimised at system level
Recyclability
• >95% recovery at minimal cost
©2018
Structure of Automotive Electric machine (1)
©2018
Exhaust System
Traction Battery Pack
Fuel Tank
On-board Charger
Charging Socket
Internal Combustion Engine
Thermal System (Cooling)
Transmission
DC/DC Converter
Battery (auxillary)
Electric Motor
Power Steering
Invertor
Compressor For Air Conditioning
Electrified vehicles have many new ancillary components
And we must think sustainably from the outset
Recycling
EV battery pack weighs 300-900kg
Typical life 8-10 years
Net cost at disposal around £1000/T
Pack design should allow easy dismantling
New processes needed to recover cell materials
And deployment at scale required
95GWh (950 million tonnes) of scrap batteries will come out of cars by 2025
©WMG 2018
The need for skills
©WMG 2018
Data Analytics
