sunshine coast; state of play 101_2013

© A’Ohlin Commercial Insights, 2013 www.aohlininsights.com© A’Ohlin Commercial Insights, 2013 www.aohlininsights.com

Sunshine Coast2013 State of PlayAnna Searle & Rebecca Chong

A’Ohlin Commercial Insights

www.aohlininsights.com

http://www.aohlininsights.com/


© A’Ohlin Commercial Insights, 2013 www.aohlininsights.com© A’Ohlin Commercial Insights, 2013

Widening gap between the economic performance of Queensland and the sum for all Australian states and territories

Sep-1

985

Jul-1

986

May

-198

7

Mar

-198

8

Jan-

1989

Nov-1

989

Sep-1

990

Jul-1

991

May

-199

2

Mar

-199

3

Jan-

1994

Nov-1

994

Sep-1

995

Jul-1

996

May

-199

7

Mar

-199

8

Jan-

1999

Nov-1

999

Sep-2

000

Jul-2

001

May

-200

2

Mar

-200

3

Jan-

2004

Nov-2

004

Sep-2

005

Jul-2

006

May

-200

7

Mar

-200

8

Jan-

2009

Nov-2

009

Sep-2

010

Jul-2

011

May

-201

2

Mar

-201

30

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

State Final Demand, TrendQuarterly Sep 1985 to Mar 2013

Total States & Territories Queensland

$ million

GAP, Sep 1985 :

$ 116,080 million

GAP, Mar 2013 :

$292,936 million

source: ABS 52063.0, Table 21

widening gap

Queensland

Australia



The Sunshine Coast economy is failing to productively generate economic growth. Whilst Nominal GRP increased, Real GRP decreased over the period. However jobs increased at a greater rate than population; it appears this additional man power is yet to create any real economic benefit.

Growth comparatives2006 to 2011

% Number

GRP, nominal 5.9% pa + $ 2,593 million

GRP, real 1.5% pa + $ 721 million

GRP per capita, nominal 4.5% pa + $ 6,396

GRP per capita, real - 0.7% pa - $ 178

Net migration + 15,081

Jobs 2.5% pa + 15,450

Population 1.4% pa + 16,973

Jobs / Population 0.3% pa



Sunshine Coast: Aesthetically beautiful. Economically stretched.



Within Queensland, the Sunshine Coast is running 5th and considered a “3rd tier” economy

2000-01 2006-07 2010-112000-01 to

2006-072006-07 to

2010-112000-01 to

2010-11Brisbane 55,971 101,799 129,680 10.5% 6.2% 8.8%Gold Coast 10,676 20,719 25,312 11.7% 5.1% 9.0%Mackay 6,304 15,122 22,807 15.7% 10.8% 13.7%Fitzroy 7,842 14,741 20,974 11.1% 9.2% 10.3%Sunshine Coast 5,179 10,007 12,600 11.6% 5.9% 9.3%Far North 6,696 10,687 12,286 8.1% 3.5% 6.3%Darling Downs 5,955 9,854 12,126 8.8% 5.3% 7.4%Northern 5,797 9,798 11,923 9.1% 5.0% 7.5%Wide Bay-Burnett 5,202 8,587 10,209 8.7% 4.4% 7.0%North West 3,431 7,430 6,511 13.7% -3.2% 6.6%West Moreton 1,424 2,024 2,651 6.0% 7.0% 6.4%South West 1,463 1,533 2,100 0.8% 8.2% 3.7%Central West 621 552 687 -1.9% 5.6% 1.0%Total Queensland 116,561 212,853 269,866 10.6% 6.1% 8.8%Rest of Australia 590,331 870,449 1,134,023 6.7% 6.8% 6.7%Total Australia 706,892 1,083,302 1,403,889 7.4% 6.7% 7.1%

$million Compound Annual Growth %Nominal GRP, Queensland

source: Queensland Treasury & Trade, March 2013 "Experimental Estimates of Gross Regional Product 2000-01, 2006-07 and 2010-11"

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 4



Queensland’s regions – a visual perspective3 underperforming economies during the 6 years between 2000-01 to 2006-07 relative to 2006-07 to 2010-11:

• Central West• South West• West Moreton

West Moreton:• rural western portion of SEQ• Sits inland from both the Brisbane

metro and the Gold Coast and to the east of the Darling Downs

• Much of the region lies in the Great Dividing Range



Excluding its 3 outliers, Queensland, enjoyed greater prosperity during the 6 years from 2000-01 to 2006-07 with 10.8% growth pa Vs 6.1% growth during the next 4 years to 2010-11

source: Queensland Treasury & Trade, March 2013 "Experimental Estimates of Gross Regional Product 2000-01, 2006-07 and 2010-11"

2000-01 2006-07 2010-112000-01 to

2006-072006-07 to

2010-112000-01 to

2010-11Brisbane 55,971 101,799 129,680 10.5% 6.2% 8.8%Gold Coast 10,676 20,719 25,312 11.7% 5.1% 9.0%Mackay 6,304 15,122 22,807 15.7% 10.8% 13.7%Fitzroy 7,842 14,741 20,974 11.1% 9.2% 10.3%Sunshine Coast 5,179 10,007 12,600 11.6% 5.9% 9.3%Far North 6,696 10,687 12,286 8.1% 3.5% 6.3%Darling Downs 5,955 9,854 12,126 8.8% 5.3% 7.4%Northern 5,797 9,798 11,923 9.1% 5.0% 7.5%Wide Bay-Burnett 5,202 8,587 10,209 8.7% 4.4% 7.0%North West 3,431 7,430 6,511 13.7% -3.2% 6.6%West Moreton 1,424 2,024 2,651 6.0% 7.0% 6.4%South West 1,463 1,533 2,100 0.8% 8.2% 3.7%Central West 621 552 687 -1.9% 5.6% 1.0%Total Queensland 116,561 212,853 269,866 10.6% 6.1% 8.8%Rest of Australia 590,331 870,449 1,134,023 6.7% 6.8% 6.7%Total Australia 706,892 1,083,302 1,403,889 7.4% 6.7% 7.1%

$million Compound Annual Growth %



The size of the Sunshine Coast economy is on a par with the Far North, Darling Downs, Northern, Wide-Bay Burnett and North West regions



Sunshine Coast Regional Council is hoping to push the economy up into a Tier 2 economy through its recently released Draft Economic Strategy 2013-2033

Tier 2 Tier 3


http://www.sunshinecoast.qld.gov.au/addfiles/documents/business/draft_economic_development_strategy_2013.pdf


With Nominal growth exceeding Real growth, and relatively low inflation growth since 2000, earnings are growing faster than our productive efficiency suggesting an underinvestment in productive capacity

2000-01 to 2006-07

2006-07 to 2010-11

2000-01 to 2010-11

Brisbane 10.5% 6.2% 8.8%Gold Coast 11.7% 5.1% 9.0%Mackay 15.7% 10.8% 13.7%Fitzroy 11.1% 9.2% 10.3%Sunshine Coast 11.6% 5.9% 9.3%Far North 8.1% 3.5% 6.3%Darling Downs 8.8% 5.3% 7.4%Northern 9.1% 5.0% 7.5%Wide Bay-Burnett 8.7% 4.4% 7.0%North West 13.7% -3.2% 6.6%West Moreton 6.0% 7.0% 6.4%South West 0.8% 8.2% 3.7%Central West -1.9% 5.6% 1.0%Total Queensland 10.6% 6.1% 8.8%

Nominal GRP, QueenslandCompound Annual Growth %

2000-01 to 2006-07

2006-07 to 2010-11

2000-01 to 2010-11

Brisbane 6.6% 2.0% 4.7%Gold Coast 7.8% 0.5% 4.8%Mackay 6.4% 2.1% 4.6%Fitzroy 5.0% 1.2% 3.5%Sunshine Coast 7.5% 1.5% 5.1%Far North 4.0% -0.0% 2.3%Darling Downs 4.7% 2.3% 3.7%Northern 4.3% 0.8% 2.9%Wide Bay-Burnett 4.8% 0.4% 3.0%North West -1.8% 3.0% 0.1%West Moreton 1.9% 3.8% 2.6%South West -3.8% 6.6% 0.3%Central West -5.8% 4.3% -1.9%Total Queensland 5.8% 1.7% 4.1%

Real GRP, QueenslandCompound Annual Growth %

Nominal GRP growth measures what is earned from what is produced (we live in a nominal economy with profits, prices, income and inflation).

Real GRP growth measures how efficiently we produce goods and services (excludes inflation).



In terms of Nominal GRP per capita, the Sunshine Coast drops well down the list into 11th place (out of 13)

2000-01 2006-07 2010-11 2000-01 2006-07 2010-11North West 100,079 221,065 186,503 14.1% -4.2% 6.4%Mackay 45,834 93,214 133,143 12.6% 9.3% 11.3%Fitzroy 43,148 72,704 99,279 9.1% 8.1% 8.7%South West 54,181 58,356 79,156 1.2% 7.9% 3.9%Brisbane 34,356 54,509 63,631 8.0% 3.9% 6.4%Central West 49,692 48,180 60,231 -0.5% 5.7% 1.9%Northern 30,468 46,012 52,959 7.1% 3.6% 5.7%Darling Downs 28,310 43,184 51,833 7.3% 4.7% 6.2%Far North 29,871 42,393 46,198 6.0% 2.2% 4.5%Gold Coast 24,679 38,910 44,177 7.9% 3.2% 6.0%Sunshine Coast 20,953 33,369 39,765 8.1% 4.5% 6.6%Wide Bay-Burnett 21,997 31,386 35,836 6.1% 3.4% 5.0%West Moreton 21,668 27,350 32,743 4.0% 4.6% 4.2%Total Queensland 32,120 50,957 60,317 8.0% 4.3% 6.5%

Compound Annual Growth %Nominal GRP per capitaNominal GRP per capita

$



Net Migration, Sunshine Coast increased just over 15,000 between 2006 and 2011

Arrivals Departures Net0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Net migration, Sunshine Coast2006 to 2011

To/from other parts of Queensland To/from another state Total

source: profile i.d., Sunshine Coast Council



Health care, Retail, Construction & Accommodation are the 4 largest employers on the Sunshine Coast, with all showing some positive growth since 2006.

Largest growth has been in Health care.

real Estate and Agriculture have experience negative growth.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Employed by Industry, 2006 Vs 2011

2006 2011

Em

plo

yed

per

son

s ag

ed 1

5 +

Source: Sunshine Coast Regional Council, regional profile

growth < 0%

growth 0 % to < 10%

growth 10 % to < 20%

growth > 20 %



Sunshine Coast employed an additional 15,450 people over the 5 years to 2011 or 2.46% pa

2006 2011 change %

Health Care and Social Assistance 13,121 17,991 4,870 37.1%Retail Trade 16,720 17,117 397 2.4%Construction 15,287 15,625 338 2.2%Accommodation and Food Services 11,127 12,241 1,114 10.0%Education and Training 8,999 10,954 1,955 21.7%Manufacturing 8,735 8,831 96 1.1%Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 5,997 8,026 2,029 33.8%Public Administration and Safety 5,347 5,978 631 11.8%Other Services 4,720 5,234 514 10.9%Transport, Postal and Warehousing 4,212 5,008 796 18.9%Administrative and Support Services 3,848 4,618 770 20.0%Wholesale trade 3,975 4,282 307 7.7%Financial and Insurance Services 3,168 3,581 413 13.0%Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services 3,422 3,184 -238 -7.0%Inadequately described or not stated 3,084 3,149 65 2.1%Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 2,960 2,333 -627 -21.2%Arts and Recreation Services 1,837 2,084 247 13.4%Mining 656 1,827 1,171 178.5%Information Media and Telecommunications 1,666 1,668 2 0.1%Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services 743 1,343 600 80.8%TOTAL 119,624 135,074 15,450 12.9%

2.46%

Industry sector

CAGR, 5 years (Compound Annual Growth Rate)

Sunshine Coast, Persons Employed



Relative to both Queensland and Australia, Sunshine Coast jobs market growth accelerated in Health Care, Professional Services, Education, and Utilities (electricity, water, waste).

Significantly declines are noted in Retail, Construction, Agriculture, and Real Estate.

Retail Trade

Construction

Manufacturing

Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing

Rental, Hiring and Real Estate Services

Inadequately described or not stated

Accommodation and Food Services

Information Media and Telecommunications

Wholesale trade

Other Services

Public Administration and Safety

Financial and Insurance Services

Arts and Recreation Services

Transport, Postal and Warehousing

Administrative and Support Services

Electricity, Gas, Water and Waste Services

Education and Training

Mining

Professional, Scientific and Technical Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

-2.0 -1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Jobs growth (2006 to 2011) by sector

Australia Queensland Sunshine CoastGrowth (percentage points)

Source:Profile i.d., Sunshine Coast Council



Profile of the Sunshine Coast jobs market changed significantly from 2006 to 2011

UP (top 4) Health care Professional services Mining Education

DOWN (bottom 4) Retail trade Construction Manufacturing Agriculture & fishing

Retail Trade

Construction

Manufacturing






Wholesale trade

Other Services








Mining



-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0

Jobs growth (2006 to 2011) by sectorSunshine Coast

Growth (percentage points)

Source: profile i.d., Sunshine Coast Council



Between 2006 and 2011, the ratio of jobs to population increased slightly for Queensland, Australia and the Sunshine Coast

Sunshine Coast

Qld AustraliaSunshine

CoastQld Australia

Total jobs 119,625 1,824,999 9,104,183 135,079 2,039,276 10,058,327Population 276,266 3,904,532 19,855,288 306,909 4,332,739 21,507,717Jobs/population 43.3% 46.7% 45.9% 44.0% 47.1% 46.8%

20112006

source: ABS census data

Jobs/Population ratioCompound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) = 0.33%



Between 2006 and 2011 the profile of the Sunshine Coast jobs market changed significantly

2006 20110

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000Number of employed per industry - Sunshine Coast


Retail Trade

Construction



Manufacturing



Other Services



Wholesale trade






Mining



Per

son

s

source: profile i.d. Sunshine Coast Council



The Sunshine Coast economy is failing to productively generate economic growth. Whilst Nominal GRP increased, Real GRP decreased over the period. However jobs increased at a greater rate than population; it appears this additional man power is yet to create any real economic benefit.

Growth comparatives2006 to 2011

% Number

GRP, nominal 5.9% pa + $ 2,593 million

GRP, real 1.5% pa + $ 721 million

GRP per capita, nominal 4.5% pa + $ 6,396

GRP per capita, real - 0.7% pa - $ 178

Net migration + 15,081

Jobs 2.5% pa + 15,450

Population 1.4% pa + 16,973

Jobs / Population 0.3% pa



Sunshine Coast: Aesthetically beautiful. Economically stretched.


© A’Ohlin Commercial Insights, 2013 www.aohlininsights.com

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