summary of progress with poama/access seasonal prediction system
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESS Seasonal Prediction System](https://reader035.vdocuments.mx/reader035/viewer/2022062308/56649ca35503460f94962879/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Summary of Progress with POAMA/ACCESSSeasonal Prediction System
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POAMA/ACCESS - Seasonal Prediction System
20082007 2010
PO
AM
A-2
PO
AM
A-1
.5P
OA
MA
-3
2009
Hind-casts
2011
OperationalProducts & docs
Applications
SystemRe-analyses
Hind-castsOperational
Products and docApplications
System DevelopmentRe-analyses
Hind-castsOperational
Products & DocApplications
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Major improvements
POAMA-1.5
• New ACCESS atmosphere/land initialisation (ALI) system• Comprehensive hind-cast set (1980-2006, 10 member ensemble each month) - 3
members done• Rainfall forecasts (direct + statistical downscaling)• Intra-seasonal (weekly) forecasts• OpenDAP external data server (sample - last 3 years available)
POAMA-2
• New ACCESS Ocean assimilation system (PEODAS)• New ACCESS ensemble generation strategy• Increased atmospheric resolution (T95 - optional)
POAMA-3
• New ACCESS coupled model (UKMO UM, AusCOM, ..)• Higher resolution (ocean, atmosphere)• Greenhouse gases• New ACCESS coupled assimilation system
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Results
POAMA-1.5B
So far 3 out of 10 member ensemble each month from 1980-2005
Real-time forecasts in next 2 months
(Some results from preliminary version 1.5A, with no ALI)
Summary of work of many from BMRC
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P15b P15a P1 Persistence
P15b P15a P1 Persistence
Produced by Guomin Wang
NINO 3SSTA forecasts
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P15b P15a P1 Persistence
Indian Ocean Dipole Model Index
Produced by Guomin Wang
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POAMA15B1982-20053 members mean
Skill at lead=5
Dashed: persistence
Produced by Guomin Wang
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SST Anomaly Correlation
POAMA-1 POAMA-1.5
1 month
3 month
5 month
Produced by Guomin Wang
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MAM LT 0
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
AVG SEACI QLD NSW
Co
rr.
Co
eff.
POAMA
EOF
SVD
POAMA NINO4
SVD-calib
STAT
MAM LT 3
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
AVG SEACI QLD NSWCo
rr.
Co
eff.
POAMA
EOF
SVD
POAMA NINO4
SVD-calib
STAT
MAM forecasts
Winner POAMA
Loser SVD
Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A)
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
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SON LT 0
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
AVG SEACI QLD NSW
Co
rr.
Co
eff.
POAMA
MLR
SVD
POAMA NINO4
SVD-calib
STAT
SON LT 3
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
AVG SEACI QLD NSW
Co
rr.
Co
eff.
POAMA
MLR
SVD
POAMA NINO4
SVD-calib
STAT
SON Forecasts
Winner Bridging (EOF/NINO4)
Loser SVD-calib
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
Rainfall Forecasts (POAMA-1.5A)
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1997
OBS
2002
SST anomaly predicted by POAMA 1.5a at LT3
1997
2002
1997 vs 2002 SST forecasts
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
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1997 2002
1997 vs 2002 Rainfall forecasts
Obs
Forecast - Lead 3
Produced by Eun-Pa Lim and Harry Hendon
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Intra-Seasonal Forecasts
Initialised with true state of ocean, land and atmosphere
Stored daily data
Can start looking at weekly time scales
Gap between NWP and Seasonal prediction
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Skill over Australia as a function of lead time (days): precipitation
(by Debbie Hudson)
(1980-2001)KEY: persistence p15a p15b
0.5
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Wheeler MJO Phase Diagram
•Forecasts starting 1st March 1997
•50 day forecasts
•Light Blue - obs
•Other colours - ensembles
•Produced by Harun Rashid
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Summary
• Significant improvement in SST skill levels
• Rainfall competitive with statistical forecasts ?
• Range of new products
• Seasonal and Weekly forecast
• Comprehensive hind-cast set available soon
• Available externally - openDAP server
• Exiting year ahead !!