suburban neighbourhood adaptation for a changing climate...

Suburban Neighbourhood Adaptation for a Changing Climate (SNACC)

Final Report

Katie Williams, Rajat Gupta, Ian Smith, Jennifer Joynt, Diane Hopkins, Glen Bramley, Catherine Payne, Matthew Gregg,

Robin Hambleton, Nada Bates-Brkljac, Neil Dunse, Charles Musslewhite

This report should be referenced as:

Katie Williams, Rajat Gupta, Ian Smith, Jennifer Joynt, Diane

Hopkins, Glen Bramley, Catherine Payne, Matthew Gregg, Robin

Hambleton, Nada Bates-Brkljac, Neil Dunse, Charles Musslewhite

(2012) Suburban Neighbourhood Adaptation for a Changing Climate

(SNACC) Final Report, University of the West of England, Oxford

Brookes University and Heriot-Watt University.

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Research team

Principal Investigators

• ProfessorKatieWilliams(UniversityoftheWestof

England)

• ProfessorRajatGupta(OxfordBrookesUniversity)

• ProfessorGlenBramley(Heriot-WattUniversity)

Co-Investigators

• DrIanSmith(UniversityoftheWestofEngland)

• ProfessorRobinHambleton(Universityofthe

WestofEngland)

Researchers

• DrJenniferJoynt(UniversityoftheWestof

England)

• DrDianeHopkins(UniversityoftheWestof

England)

• DrCharlesMusslewhite(UniversityoftheWestof

England)

• MsCatherinePayne(UniversityoftheWestof

England)

• DrNadaBrkljac-Bates(UniversityoftheWestof

England)

• DrNeilDunse(Heriot-WattUniversity)

• MrMatthewGregg(OxfordBrookesUniversity)

• MsSmitaChandiwala(OxfordBrookesUniversity)

Stakeholder partners

• BristolCityCouncil

• OxfordCityCouncil

• StockportMetropolitanBoroughCouncil

• WhiteDesignAssociatesLtd.

Consultants

• ARUP

International visiting researchers from academia and practice

• ProfessorÖrjanSvane,KTHStockholm,Sweden

• ProfessorBrendanGleeson,Universityof

Melbourne,Australia

• TrevorGraham,CityofMalmö,Sweden

• JoaquimFlores,GondamerCityCouncil,Portugal

• ProfessorJanetHolston,ArizonaStateUniversity,

USA

Advisory group members

• DepartmentforCommunitiesandLocal

Government(DCLG)

• CommissionforArchitectureandtheBuilt

Environment(CABE)

• RoyalTownPlanningInstitute(RTPI)

• ConstructingExcellenceSouthWest(CESW)

• ForumfortheFuture(FFTF)

• ModernBuiltEnvironmentKnowledgeTransfer

Network(BRE-MBEKTN)

• ImprovementandDevelopmentAgencyforLocal

Government(IDeA)

• EnvironmentAgency(EA)

• HousingandCommunitiesAgency(HCA)

• WestofEnglandPartnership

• GreenwichUniversity(CREWProject)

• UKClimateImpactsProgramme(UKCIP)

• LocalGovernmentAssociation(LGA)

• Resilientcommunities

SNACCisoneofanumberofprojectsfundedby

theEngineeringandPhysicalSciencesResearch

Council(EPSRC,Reference:EP/G061289/1),and

co-ordinatedbytheAdaptationandResiliencetoa

ChangingClimateCoordinationNetwork(ARCCCN).

ARCCCNco-ordinatesanumberofprojectslooking

attheimpactsofclimatechangeandpossible

adaptationoptionsincludinginthebuiltenvironment

anditsinfrastructure.

TheoverallProgrammecontributestotheLiving

withEnvironmentalChange(LWEC)Infrastructure

Challengewhichaimstomakeinfrastructure,the

builtenvironmentandtransportsystemsresilient

toenvironmentalchange,lesscarbonintensiveand

moresociallyacceptable.Formoreinformationon

SNACC,ARCCandLWECpleasesee:

SNACC:www.snacc-research.org.uk

ARCC:[email protected]

LWEC:www.lwec.org.uk

Acknowledgements:TheSNACCteamwouldliketo

acknowledgetheinputofalltheparticipantsinthe

research.Residentsandstakeholdersinvolvedin

climatechangeissuesinthreecities(Oxford,Bristol

andStockport)contributedtotheprojectworkshops,

andgaveusvaluableinsightsintothechallengesof

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adaptinghomesandsuburbanneighbourhoods.

OurLocalAuthoritypartnersatOxfordCityCouncil,

BristolCityCouncilandStockportMetropolitan

BoroughCouncil,werekeymembersoftheresearch

team.Wewouldparticularlyliketoacknowledge

thetimeandcommitmentofLucyVilarkin,Darren

PegramandAngieJukes.Wewouldalsoliketo

thankallofourAdvisoryGroupmembers,andour

InternationalVisitingResearchersfortheirvaluable

contributionstotheresearch.

Afulllistofprojectpartnerscanbefoundat

www.snacc-research.org

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Why do suburbs need to be adapted to mitigate further climate change and withstand ongoing changes?

• In England, over 85% of the population lives

in areas classified as ‘suburban’.Suburbsare

mostcommonlythoughtofasareasthatare:

predominantlyresidential,towardstheedgeof

townsandcities,mainlyowner-occupied,and

often(butnotalways)characterisedbymedium-

lowdensitydevelopmentanddetachedor

semi-detachedhousing.However,suburbsdiffer

intermsoftheirphysicalcharacteristics,andthe

socio-economicandculturalcharacteristicsof

theirresidents.

• It is in suburbs that the majority of the population

will be affected by climate change.Themain

climatechangesthatpeoplewillexperienceare

hotteranddriersummers(withmoreheat-waves),

andmilder,wetterwinters.Therewillbemore

stormsandthepotentialformoreflooding.

• The impacts of these changes will be felt by

people, in terms of, for example, increased heat

stress and reduced comfort during hot spells,

restrictions on water use, reduced air quality, and

stress and costs associated with flooding and

storm damage.Theimpactswillalsobeevidentin

thephysicalenvironment,througheffectssuchas

deteriorationofpublicgreenspacesandgardens,

flooddamageandincreasedrisksofsubsidence

(insomeplaces).

• A number of physical changes could be made

to homes, gardens and the public realm in

suburbs to mitigate further climate change, and

withstand ongoing changes.Thesechanges

rangefromsmall-scaleadaptationstohomes

(suchasaddinginsulationorshutters)andgardens

(suchasgrowingfoodandinstallingwaterbutts),

tolarge-scalemodificationsattheneighbourhood

level(suchasgreeningschemesordeveloping

sustainableurbandrainagesystems).

• Yet, processes of change in the physical

environment within suburbs are complex.A

rangeofstakeholdersareresponsiblefordifferent

aspectsofthebuiltandnaturalenvironment,and

fordifferentclimaterisks.Stakeholdersinclude

localauthorities,utilities,regulatoryauthorities,

developers,builtandnaturalenvironment

professionals,individualsandcommunities.These

stakeholdershavevariousresources,powersand

knowledge,andtheiractionstakeplaceindifferent

localpolicyandgovernancecontexts.

What is the current situation in English suburbs with respect to adapting to reduce further impacts of climate change and withstand ongoing changes?

• At the home and garden scales some mitigation

and adaptation actions are taking place, but

for the majority of residents climate change

is a non-issue.Theadaptationsthatarebeing

implemented,suchasinstallinginsulationortriple

glazing,settingasidelandforgrowingvegetables,

orcollectingrainwateraregenerallybeingdone

tosavemoney,orbecausetheyarelinkedtoDIY

orgardeningashobbies.Mostresidents:donot

thinkaboutclimatechangeintermsofneeding

toadapttofutureweather;arescepticalofthe

extentofclimatechange;welcomeanincreasein

summertemperatures;anddonotseetheneed

toprioritisespendingmoneyonadaptations.

• At the neighbourhood scale, very little adaptive

action is taking place.Someadaptivemeasures

arelinkedwithregenerationprojectsorarea-wide

greeningstrategies,butverylittleisexplicitly

relatedtoadaptingtofutureconditions.

• There is no clear process, or delivery mechanism,

for adaptation and/or mitigation at the suburban

neighbourhood scale.Manyofthemosteffective

measuresarenotcurrentlybeingcarriedoutin

existingareasnorislarge-scaleretrofittinglikelyto

occur.

How can suburbs be best adapted to reduce further impacts of climate change and withstand ongoing changes?

• Thebestadaptationsarethosethatare:effective

(i.e.dothejobtheyaredesignedtodo,e.g.reduce

floodrisksorcoolahome),withoutadverse

impacts;feasible(i.e.possibletoimplementina

Key findings

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particularplace,giventheexistinglocalconditions)

andacceptabletothosewhohavetoimplement,

orlivewith,them(i.e.theadaptationissatisfactory

intermsofcostand/orvisualappearance).

• Thereisno‘best’‘onesizefitsall’adaptation

packagethatwillworkineverysuburb.Thebest

adaptationsdependonthetypeofsuburb(and

typeofhousingwithinit),theclimatethreats

inthatsuburb(e.g.somesuburbsareatriskof

flooding,othersaremorepronetooverheating),

andtheresponsecapacityinthatsuburb(e.g.the

economicandsocialconditions,andresources

available).

• Effectiveadaptationsmustcombine‘adaptive

retrofitting’with‘lowcarbonretrofitting’.There

isadangerthatsomelowcarbonadaptations

maymakesuburbslessabletocopewithfuture

weatherconditions,forexamplesomeformsof

insulation,insomehomes,mayexacerbatethe

riskofoverheating.

• AlthoughtheUKisprojectedtoremainaheating

dominatedclimate,whereinimprovingthethermal

propertiesofbuildingfabricwillbeessential,

otheradaptivemeasurestoreducetheriskof

futureoverheatingonahouselevelareurgently

needed.Afabric-basedfutureproofingapproach

comprisingmitigationandadaptationmeasuresis

requiredforlarge-scalerefurbishmentofexisting

housing.

• Atboththeneighbourhood,andindividualhome

andgardenscalesadaptation‘packages’are

moreeffectivethansinglemeasures.Adaptation

packageswerefoundtobeeffectiveinreducing

theriskofoverheatinginhomes,andarangeof

greening,landscapingandengineeringmeasures

wouldmakeneighbourhoodsmoreliveablein

futureclimateconditions.

• Someneighbourhoodadaptationoptionswould

beeffectiveinadaptingmostsuburbsforfuture

climatethreats.Forexample,‘greening’streets

andpublicspaces(addingstreettrees,allotments,

newgreenspaces),introducingsustainable

urbandrainagefeatures,andchangingtoenergy-

efficientstreetlightingwouldbeeffective(and

acceptable)inthemajorityofsuburbs.

• Someresidentialadaptationmeasuresare

suitableforallhousing,butothersareonly

feasibleforspecificdwellingtypes.Forexample,

mosthomeswouldbenefitfromroofinsulation,

windowshading,andwater-savingdevices.Yet

measuressuchascavitywallinsulationareclearly

notfeasibleforhomesbuiltwithsolidwalls.Some

measures,althoughtheycouldbeimplementedin

allhousingtypes,aremoreeffectiveandlikelyto

becarriedoutinparticularsuburbs.Forexample,

growingfoodandshadingoutdoorspacearemore

effectiveandlikelyinhomeswithlargergardens.

• Forresidents,the‘best’adaptationstendtobe

cheap,convenient,practical(giventhetypeof

hometheyhave),attractive,andhavesomeother

lifestylebenefit.Householdersarealsomorelikely

toimplementdual-purposeadaptationssuchas

thosethatmeetmitigationandadaptationcriteria

(e.g.insulation),orthosethatimprovecomfortand

arevisuallyattractive(e.g.greenery).

What are the best adaptations for mitigating further climate change?

• Homeenergysavingadaptations(roofandwall

insulation,double/tripleglazing,photovoltaicsand

solarpanels)werefoundtobeeffectiveinalmost

allsuburbs(notwithstandingsomeconcerns

aboutoverheating),andarewellunderstood

byresidentsandstakeholders.However,there

areuncertaintiesaroundtheiracceptabilityand

likelihoodofimplementation.

• Increasedgreeningofhomesandgardens

(includingfoodgrowing)iseffectiveandhas

multiplebenefitsinsuburbs.Residentsarepositive

aboutitandlikelytoincreasegreeneryintheirown

homesandgardens.Neighbourhoodgreening

iswelcomed,butthereareresourceissuesand

practicalproblemsinimplementingit.

What are the best adaptations for flooding?

• Effectiveadaptationstoreducetheriskand

impactoffloodsinsuburbsneedtoaddresspluvial

floodingfrominadequatestormwaterdrainage,

asmuchasfluvialfloodingfromwaterways.Thisis

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becausetheformermaycontributetoagreater

proportionoffloodingproblemsinthefuture

withincreasedrainintensityandstormactivity

expectedfromclimatechange.Ensuringporous

surfacesareretainedisimportant(forexample,

restrictingpavingoverfrontgardensandlaying

largepatios),asisthedevelopmentofsustainable

urbandrainagesystems(SUDS).However,

retrofittingSUDSinsuburbscanbebothdisruptive

andexpensive.

• Anumberofindividualhouse-scaleadaptations

canbeeffectiveinlimitingsomedamagefrom

floods(e.g.airbrickcovers,flood-proofdoors,

floodgates).However,theyareunlikelytobe

implementedbyresidents,eveniftheyhave

experiencedfloodingorliveinanareaatrisk.

Householdersareconcernedthatdrawing

attentiontothefactthattheirhomemightflood

willdecreaseitsmarketvalue.

• Effectiveadaptationsarethosewhichleavethe

neighbourhoodorhomemoreresilientaftera

floodingeventthanitwasbefore.Thiscanmean

thattheneighbourhoodisprotectedfromfurther

flooding,orthatflooddamageislimited.However

suchadaptationsareoftendifficulttoimplement

becauseinsurancecompaniesoftenonlyreplace

‘likewithlike’:theydonotpayformoreresilient

adaptations.

What are the best adaptations for summertime overheating?

• Anumberofadaptationoptionsareeffective

incombatingoverheatinginhomes,butthe

effectivenessoftheseoptionsdependsonthe

characteristicsofthehome.Themosttechnically

effectiveadaptiveapproachistoreducesolar

radiationinto,andonto,thehome.Thiscanbe

doneinanumberofwaysondifferentscales,

e.g.plantingoftreesinthestreetsandwider

neighbourhood,and/orinstallingexternalshading

onhomes.Naturalventilationofthehomeis

alsoextremelyeffective.Combiningadaptation

optionsintopackagesisthemosteffective

methodofreducingtheriskofoverheating.

• Overall,externalshading(e.g.fixedoutdoorwindow

shadesorexternalshutters)ismoreeffectivethan

internalshading(e.g.blinds).Externalshuttersare

themosteffectiveastheykeepsolarradiationoff

windowsurfacesbutthisrequireskeepingshutters

closedduringsummerdays(reducingnaturallight

inhomes).Plantinggreenwallcover,gardentreesor

streettreesisalsoaneffectiveshadingmeasurefor

homesalthoughcareneedstobetakeninselecting

appropriatespeciesoftreesandplants.

• Increasingthereflectivityoftheexteriorsurfaces

ofhomes,e.g.abrightwhiterenderforthe

exteriorwallscanalsoreduceoverheatingrisk,and

residentsarequitelikelytoimplementit,ifitdoes

notundulyaltertheimageoftheirneighbourhood.

• Additionofthermalmasstothehome,e.g.

replacingatimberfloorwithaconcretefloor

reducespotentialoverheatingdependentonthe

locationofmassandthecapacitytoreleaseheat

throughnighttimenaturalventilation.However,

thermalmassispoorlyunderstoodbyresidentsand

theyareunlikelytotakeaction.

• Externalinsulationiseffectiveineitherreducing

overheatingriskorminimisingtheincreasein

overheatingriskthatwouldhappenasaresultof

installinginsulationinhomes.Internalwallinsulation

canincreasetheriskofoverheating.However,

externalwallinsulationisnotpopularwithresidents

andtheyareunlikelytoimplementit.

• Reducinginternalgainsfromsourcessuchashot

waterheatingtanksandpipeworkinthehomeisa

veryeffectiveandcheapwaytoreducetheriskof

overheatingandincreaseenergysavings.

• Attheneighbourhoodscale,theintroduction

ofblueandgreeninfrastructureislikelytobring

coolingbenefitsandiswelcomedbyresidents.

However,thereisuncertaintyoverimplementation,

particularlyaboutcostandresponsibilityfor

installationandmanagement.

• ‘Communitycoolrooms’couldbeeffectiveinheat

waves,butfewresidentsorlocalstakeholders

perceiveaneedforthem,orwouldbelikelyto

implementthem.

6

What are the best adaptations for storms and driving rain?

• Anumberofadaptationsareeffectivein

protectinghomes,gardensandneighbourhoods

fromstormdamage(e.g.weather-proofing

treatmentstoexternalwalls,tricklevents,retaining

poroussurfaces).However,residentsareunlikely

toimplementthesespecificallytoprotecttheir

homesfromstormdamage.Theyaremorelikely

toengageinroutinemaintenance(e.g.clearing

gutters,replacingloserooftiles,ensuringgarden

fenceswerewellconstructed)toaddressstorms.

Attheneighbourhoodscale,fewadaptationsare

evenconsideredinrespecttostormdamage.

What are the best adaptations for droughts and water scarcity?

• Effectiveadaptationstohomesandgardens

includerainwaterharvestingsystems,andsimple

measuressuchaswaterbutts.However,rainwater

harvestingispoorlyunderstoodandunlikelytobe

implementedinmostsuburbs.Waterbuttsare

popularandalreadycommonlyused.Residents

understandwaterscarcitybutthisdoesnotmake

themmorelikelytoplantdroughtresistantplants

orchangethetypeoffruitandvegetablesthey

grow.

• Attheneighbourhoodscale,plantingthatcan

withstandclimatechangesandrequireslesswater

isseenasaneffectivemeasureandislikelyto

becomemorecommonlyimplementedbylocal

authorities.

• SUDScanbeeffective,andaremorefeasiblein

lowerdensitysuburbswithmoreporoussurfaces,

buttheycanbebothexpensiveanddisruptiveto

retrofit.

What might motivate residents and other stakeholders to mitigate further climate change and adapt to ongoing changes?

• More experience of climate change (gradual

changes and extreme events).Currently,climate

changeisnotamotivatorforchangeinsuburbs.

Householdersfindithardtorelatetobecause

theyhavenotgenerallyexperiencedproblems.As

thepublicarenotoverlyconcerned,theissueis

nothighonthepoliticalagendaeither.However,

asEnglandexperiencesmoreheatwaves,floods

andextremeweatheritislikelythatrespondingto

theseriskswillbecomeahigherprioritypolitically

andpractically.

• Normalising of simultaneous mitigation and

adaptation practices, and their introduction into

organisations’ long-term planning and day-to-

day activities.Asexperiencesofclimatechange

become‘real’,andmitigationandadaptation

measuresareintroducedtheyarelikelytobecome

partofnormaldecisionmakingprocesses

forhouseholdersandotherstakeholders.As

adaptationsbecomemorevisible,theyarelikelyto

becomemoreacceptable.

• Integrating adaptation into existing public and

policy agendas.Adaptingtoongoingclimate

changeislikelytobemostsuccessfullyaddressed

bylinkingittootherissuessuchaslow-carbon

andhealthycommunityagendas.Incorporating

climatechangeadaptationtotherationalefor

implementingchangetothebuiltenvironmentfor

theseotheragendascouldgenerateincreased

impetustothepoliticalwillforadoptingsome

ofthesemeasures.Itwouldalsobeessentialto

ensureactionforotheragendasdoesnotconflict

withtheneedtoadapttotheanticipatedclimatic

changes.

• A better understanding of the multiple pathways,

involving a range of stakeholders, that could

deliver effective suburban adaptation.Thereis

nosingle‘process’ofeffectiveadaptation.Itis

likelythatacombinationofindividual,community,

government-led,andpartnershipactionswillbe

required.Thepotentialforcommunityaction

needstobemaximised.Buildingonexisting

communitycapacity(notnecessarilyaround

climatechangeissues)couldbeaneffective

wayofintegratingadaptationactivityinto

neighbourhoods.

7

• Prioritising resources for adaptation. Currently

both householders and local and national

government are not prioritising resources for

climate change mitigation or adaptation to

effectively adapt suburbs.Thisispartlybecause

manyofthechangesneededarecostlyandhave

medium-longtermbenefits.

• Clearer responsibilities for adaptation. At the

suburban scale one of the key problems in

effective mitigation lies in understanding who

is responsible for change.Thereisconfusion

overthescaleatwhichriskshouldbemanaged

andownershippatternsinsuburbs,andthereare

misunderstandingsaboutthenatureofriskand

insurance.Withoutsignificantclarificationvarious

agencieswilldonothinginmanysuburbs,and

leaveneighbourhoodsvulnerable.

• Communicating climate change and its risks

effectively for different audiences.Different

actorsinvolvedin,oraffectedby,suburban

adaptationengagewithitindifferentways.

Hence,framingchangestohomesandlocal

neighbourhoodspurelyintermsof‘climate

change’and‘risk’isnotalwayseffectivein

motivatingaction.Stakeholderswiththe

responsibilityforinformingthepublicabout

climatechangeriskswillneedtofindeffective

waysofcommunicating.‘Climatechange’

messagescancreateresistancetoaction,so

householdersmayneedtobeengagedthrough

messagesaboutthepracticalandimmediate

benefitsofinstallingadaptationmeasures,and

thecost-effectivenessand‘qualityoflife/comfort’

benefits.

• Ensuring practical information about adaptations

is communicated at the right time and by

trusted people/organisations.Itisimportantthat

householdersgettherightadviceorinformation

whentheymaybeabouttomakechangesto

theirpropertiese.g.whentheyfirstmoveinto

anewhome,whentheyaredoingotherhome

improvements,orwhentheyareapplyingfor

planningpermissionorbuildingregulation

approval.Itisalsoimportantthatfrontlinecontact

points,e.g.builders,DIYstorestaff,planningand

buildingregulationstaffandutilitiescanhelpwith

accurateinformation.

• Ensuring adaptation is embedded in planning

policies and practices and building regulations.

Planning policies and building regulations

need to ensure that future climatic conditions

are considered when changes to the physical

environment of suburbs are proposed.Neither

havemuchpowertopro-activelybringabout

change:buttheycouldbemorepowerfulin

stoppingfutureproblemsfromemerging.A

keyexampleisthatnewerhomes(i.e.those

builttomeetimprovedfabricregulations)

aremoresensitivetopotentialoverheating

thanolderhomes.AsthecurrentUKbuilding

regulationsandretrofittingprogrammesare

mainlyconcernedwithheatretention(andCO2

reduction),itisessentialthatfuturerevisionsto

buildingregulationsandotherpolicymeasures

tackletherisksof,andpotentialforadaptingto,

climatechangedrivenoverheatingtoensurea

comfortableenvironmentforoccupants.

• Learning from places where neighbourhood

action (and/or adaptive action) is successful.

Althoughcasesoffullyadaptedneighbourhoods

arerare,thereareexamplesofgoodpracticein

termsofneighbourhoodlevelactionthatcould

beappliedtothesuburbancontext.Thereare

alsoexamplesofbuiltenvironmentsolutionsfrom

countrieswithclimatessimilartothatprojectedfor

Englandthatcouldinformlocalstrategieshere.

• Ensuring that central government-controlled

mechanisms such as grants and subsidies are

appropriate to deliver effective adaptation.

Governmentinitiativesandfundingarewelcomed,

butpoorlyunderstoodbymosthouseholders.Itis

importantthatinitiativesareappropriatelyframed,

perhapslinkingtopeoples’interestinhome

improvementandmoneysaving,morethanto

climatechangeandrisk.Theinitiativesalsoneed

tobeclearlyexplainedandsimplyadministered.

9

Researchteamandacknowledgements 2

Keyfindings 4

Contents 9

Chapter1: 11SuburbsandclimatechangeinEngland:thechallenges

Chapter2: 15TheSNACCresearchproject:approachandmethods

Chapter3: 21AtypologyofEnglishsuburbs

Chapter4: 25PotentialclimaterisksandadaptationoptionsforEnglishsuburbs

Chapter5: 29Thepolicycontextforsuburbanchange

Chapter6: 35TheSNACCcasestudies:selection,climatechangeprojectionsandsuburbprofiles

Chapter7: 53Thepotentialforoverheatinginsuburbsandeffectiveadaptationpackages

Chapter8: 65Residents’responsestoadaptingtheirsuburbs

Chapter9: 75Stakeholders’responsestoadaptationinsuburbs

Chapter10: 81Synthesisoffindingsandconclusions–effective,feasibleandacceptablesuburbanadaptationsandpathwaystoachievingthem

Appendices

AppendixA 91Determiningtheimpactonpropertyvaluesofarangeofadaptationoptions:developingahedonicpricingmodel

AppendixB 93DevelopingDECoRuM-Adapt©(aDomesticEnergy,CarboncountingandcarbonReductionModel)toanalysetheimpactofclimatechangeonenergyuseandcomfort

AppendixC 95Developingacomputervisualisationofadaptedsuburbs

AppendixD 97PotentialadaptationandmitigationoptionstobetestedinSNACC

AppendixE 107Synergiesandconflictsbetweenadaptationandmitigationmeasures

References 111

Contents

11

Suburbs and climate change in England - the challenges

Chapter 1

1.1 Introduction

ThisreportpresentsfindingsfromtheSuburban

NeighbourhoodAdaptationforaChangingClimate

(SNACC)researchproject.Theprojectaimedto

answerthequestions:

• Howcanexistingsuburbanneighbourhoods

inEnglandbe‘best’adaptedtoreducefurther

impactsofclimatechangeandwithstandongoing

changes?and;

• Whataretheprocessesthatbringaboutclimate-

changemotivatedadaptationinsuburbanareas?

Specifically:whatmightmotivateresidentsand

otherstakeholderstoadapttopresentandfuture

climatethreats?

Hence,wesoughttofindoutwhichadaptationsto

thephysicalenvironmentofhomes,gardensand

suburbanpublicspacesworkbestandhowcanthey

bedelivered.Intestingwhichadaptationswere‘best’

wedeterminediftheywere:

• Effective,bywhichwemeanttheadaptationdid

thejobitwasdesignedtodo(e.g.reduceflood

risksorcoolahome),withoutadverseimpacts.

• Feasible,bywhichwemeanttheadaptationwas

possibletoimplementinaparticularplace,given

theexistinglocalconditions.

• Acceptable,bywhichwemeanttheadaptation

wasonethatstakeholderswerelikelyto

implementorwouldwelcomeineithertheir

neighbourhoodortheirhomeandgarden.This

meantthat,forexample,theadaptationwas

‘acceptable’intermsofcost,visualappearance,

andabsenceofnegativeside-effects.

Thisreportgivesabriefoverviewoftheproject’s

approachandmethodsandsummarisesitsfindings.

First,itsetsthecontextforsuburbanadaptationin

Englandandexplainshowtheprojectconceptualised

theadaptationchallenge.

1.2 The context for suburban adaptation in England

Itiswidelyacceptedthatourexistingbuilt

environmentsarebothcontributingto,and

adaptingpoorlyfor,climatechange.Ourbuilding

stockisill-equippedforeithergradualchangesin

averageclimaticconditionsorextremeevents,

suchasheatwaves.Suburbanareasareoftenseen

asmajorcontributorstoclimatechange,andas

placesthatarepoorlyadaptedatpresent.They

tendtobecharacterisedbylow-mediumdensity

housingthatisenergy-andland-rich,andbuiltin

layoutsthatencouragecaruseanddiscourage

walkingandcycling(HoC,2008).Intermsofthe

urbansustainabilitydebate,theyarevilifiedas

individualised,single-use,wastefulplaces,wherea

combinationoflifestylesandurbanformcompound

problems.

Yet,suburbsareheretostay.Thebuiltenvironment

changesatarateofabout1%ayear,sothemajority

ofsuburbanbuildingswillstillbeherein50-100

years,withplotstructures,roadslayouts,andmajor

infrastructurebeingmoreenduring.Peoplearealso

likelytowanttocarryonlivinginsuburbs,withalmost

allattitudinalresearchshowingthatsuburbsarestill

thepreferredresidentiallocationofthemajorityof

households(Williams,2007).

InEngland,over85%ofthepopulationlivein

areasclassifiedas‘suburbs’DETR(2000).Suburbs

arecommonlyunderstoodasurbanareasthat

are:predominantlyresidential,towardsthe

edgeoftownsandcities,relativelylowdensity,

andoftencharacterisedbydetachedorsemi-

detachedhousing(URBEDandSEERA,2004).

Theyserveadjacenturbancentresandother

nearbysettlements,andarepredominantly

owner-occupied.However,otherthanthesebasic

characteristicssuburbsvarygreatly.Theyhavebeen

developedovertimeandhavedifferentarchitectural

stylesandlayouts(Williamsetal.2010;URBED,

2002;2006).Themixoflandusesinsuburbsalso

varies:somearealmostwhollyresidentialwhilemany

arerelativelymixed,withamenitiesandeconomic

uses,suchasshopsandsmallbusinesses.The

socio-economicstatusofsuburbscanalsobevery

different.Somesuburbsaccommodatewealthy

households,othershousepopulationsfromlower

socio-economicgroups,andothersstillarehometo

middle-incomefamilies(Gwilliametal1998;Peacock

etal,2007;BondandInsalaco,2007;andMcManus

andEthington,2007).

12

Itisinthesevariedsuburbansettingsthatthe

majorityofthepopulationwillbeaffectedby

climatechange.Peoplespendmostoftheirtimein

theirhomes,andwillthereforebeaffectedintheir

domesticlivesinthesuburbs.Themainclimate

changesthatresidentswillexperienceare:hotter

anddriersummers,withmoreheat-wavesand

wintersthataremilder,andwetter.Thereisalsothe

potentialformorestormsandformoreflooding

(UKCP09;DEFRA,2012).

Theimpactsofthesechangeswillbefeltby

suburbanites,intermsof,forexample,increased

heatstressandreducedcomfortduringhotspells,

increasesinrespiratoryproblems,restrictionson

wateruse,andpersonalstressandcostsassociated

withfloodingandstormdamage.Theeffectswill

alsobeevidentinthephysicalenvironment,through

impactssuchasdeteriorationofpublicgreenspaces

andgardens,flooddamage,increasesindampand

mould,andincreasedrisksofsubsidence(oncertain

typesofsoil)(DEFRA,2012b;GuptaandGregg,

2011;Williamsetal.2012).Theremayalsobesome

impactsthatareseenaspositive,forexample,more

warmdaystospendoutside,prolongedgrowing

seasonsforsomeplants,andwarmerwintersthat

reduceheatingrequirements.Giventhiscontext,

itislikelythatsomeaspectsofthesuburban

environmentneedtobeadaptedinordertoensure

theyareliveableinthefuture.Unlesschangesare

made,thehumanexperienceoflivinginsuburbs,and

thefabricofthebuiltandnaturalenvironments,will

allsuffer.

1.3 The climate change adaptation challenge

Ifprogressistobemadeonsuburbanadaptation,

somekeycontextualfactorshavetobeconsidered.

Onlybyunderstandingtheexistingnatureof

suburbsandsuburbanchangeisitpossibleto

developeffectivestrategiesforadaptation.

Hence,thestartingpointforthestudywasthe

acknowledgementofsomeofthekeyfactors

affectingsuburbanadaptation:

• The nature of existing suburbs: Whilstitis

possibletomakesomegeneralisationsabout

suburbs,therearesignificantdifferencesbetween

themthatimpactontheirexposuretoclimate

risks,theirvulnerabilityandthecapacityof

residentsorotherstakeholderstoadapt.These

variablesinclude:

a.Theerainwhichtheywerebuiltandtheir

morphology,e.g.historicinnersuburb;planned

suburb;socialhousingsuburb(URBED,2006);

b.theexistingquality,formandownershippatterns

oftheirphysicalenvironment;

c.themixoflanduseswithinthem(e.g.spreadof

domestic,non-domestic,greenspaceandbuilt

land);

d.theirlocationwithindifferentclimaticregionsand

watercatchmentareas(differentclimaticfutures

arelikelyindifferentregions);

e.thesocio-economicandculturalcharacteristicsof

thepeoplewholiveinthem,and;

f. theinstitutional/governancearrangementsby

whichtheyaremanaged.

• The nature of change in suburbs: Although

residentialbuiltenvironmentschangerelatively

slowly,incrementaladaptationstakeplace

continuallyinsuburbs.Inaddition,Englishsuburbs

areunderpressuretoaccommodatealarge

numberofnewhomesinthenext30years.Hence,

thereissomepotentialforsignificant,positive

adaptationandre-designthroughnewbuilding

andretrofitting.

• The number and diversity of people and

organisations that make changes in

suburbs: Suburbsareco-producedover

timebyhomeowners,publicbodiesand

privatecompanies,throughdualprocessesof

autonomousadaptation(i.e.undertakenbyprivate

householders,orcompanies,fortheirindividual

benefits)and‘planned’adaptation(undertaken

bypublicbodies,usuallyLocalAuthorities,forthe

publicgood).Inaddition,suburbsmayalso,on

occasion,bepartiallyadaptedthrough‘communal’

actionsbyresidents.Hence,thereareanumber

ofimportantstakeholdersthatcanbringabout

changeinsuburbanareas.

• The nature of potential adaptations:Thereare

numerouschangesthatcouldbemadetothe

physicalenvironmentofsuburbstoenablethem

tomitigateagainstandadapttoclimatechange.

13

Theseadaptationscanbeappliedtohomes,

gardensandpublicspaces(e.g.streetsandparks)

insuburbs.Autonomousadaptationsaffecting

resilienceandmitigationcanincludeactionslike

plantingtreestoincreaseshading,installingponds

anddomesticrain-watersystems,improving

passiveventilationandinsulation,andensuring

additionsandextensionstohomesinclude

resilientducting,cablinganddrainage.Plannedor

communaladaptationsofthepublicrealmcould

includemeasuressuchas,providingadditional

publicopenspace,‘greening’publicspaces,or

implementinggreenroofsataneighbourhood

scale.

• The anticipatory and long term nature of change

required.Akeyissueformanyclimatechange

actionsisthattheyare,inthemain,anticipatory,

ratherthanreactive.Effectiveadaptationmayalso

needtobeachievedthroughamixofprivateand

jointadaptations.However,itiswellestablished

thatthereareseriousproblemsingettingpeople

toactinanticipationofpredictedclimatechange,

i.e.forautonomousadaptations,andthisis

particularlythecaseincapitalintensivesectors,

suchasthebuiltenvironment(Fewetal,2006).

Furthermoresuburbanareastendtolackthe

meansforco-ordinatingplannedorcommunal

changes(intermsofmanagementstructures,

fragmentedpropertyownershippatternsand

institutionalcapacity).

1.4 A conceptual rationale of suburban adaptation

Giventhiscontext,theSNACCprojectdeveloped

aconceptualrationalewhichinformeditsresearch

design(Figure1.1).Thisexplainsthelogicofour

researchquestionsandfocus,andunderpinsour

choiceofmethods.

ThestartingpointistherealisationthatEngland’s

suburbswillbeaffectedbyclimatechangeforthe

foreseeablefuture(A,inFigure1.1).Theseimpacts

willbeonboth‘place’and‘people’.Places(homes,

gardens,streetsandopenspaces)willbeaffected

by,forexampledroughts,andfloodandstorm

damage.Peoplewillbeaffectedthroughissuessuch

ascomfort,costofdamagetobuildings,andhealth

impacts.Theimpactsmaybegradual(e.g.brought

aboutbyincreasesinsummertemperatures)orthe

resultofextremeevents,suchasfloodsandheat

waves.Inordertominimisefutureclimatechange,

suburbswillalsoneedtobecomelessenergy

richandreduceemissions.Hence,mitigationand

adaptationneedtobeconsideredtogetheratall

times.

Toensuresuburbsarewelladapted,arangeof

measurestomodifythephysicalenvironment

tocopewith,andmitigate,futurechangecould

beemployed(B,inFigure1.1).Thesemeasures

rangefromsmallscalechangestohomes,such

asattachingshutterstoexternalwalls,tomajor

remodellingandlandscapingprojects,suchas

introducingsustainableurbandrainagesystems.

Differentadaptationmeasurescanbeemployed

againstdifferentclimatethreats,andnotallwillbe

appropriateinallsuburbs.

Fromthisrangeofpotentialadaptationmeasures,

the‘best’(effective,feasibleandacceptable)

optionsneedtobeimplementedifsuburbsare

tobecomeresilientandliveable.Yet,theability

tomakechangesinsuburbsisafunctionoftheir

‘responsecapacity’(C,inFigure1.1).Response

capacitieswillvarydependingonanumberof

factors.Theexistinglocationandnatureofthe

physicalenvironmentwillbesignificant,butthe

economic,governance,knowledgeandcultural

conditionsarealsolikelytoshapewhatispossiblein

suburbanareas.Withinthesecontexts,anumberof

potentialstakeholderscouldbeinvolvedinmaking

therequiredchanges.Majorplayersarelikelyto

includeresidents,communities,landlordsandlocal

authorities.However,theirreasons(includingability

andmotivation)foractingarelikelytobecomplex,

andwillshapetheresponsecapacityofanygiven

neighbourhood.

Thepurposeoftheprojectistodetermine,from

thiscontextualstartingpoint,whichadaptation

measuresare‘best’indifferentsuburbancontexts

(D,inFigure1.1).Itisalsoimportanttounderstand

theprocessesofchange,andidentifytheconditions

thatmighthinderorfacilitateeffectiveadaptation.

14

1.5 The structure of the report

Thereportnowsetsout,inmoredetail,theoverall

approachoftheSNACCprojectandthemethods

employedintheresearch(Chapter2).Itthen

summariseshowtheprojectdefinedEnglishsuburbs

(anddevelopedatypologyforuseintheresearch)

(Chapter3),andsetsoutthepotentialadaptations

thatcouldbeimplementedinEnglishsuburbs

(Chapter4).Thepolicycontextforsuburbanchange

isthendescribed(Chapter5).

Thereportthensetsouttheempiricalworkofthe

study.ItdescribesstudiesfromsixEnglishsuburbs

andoutlinestheclimatethreatsthattheyfaceand

thepotentialadaptationsthattheycouldemploy

(Chapter6).Itthengivesthekeyfindingsonthe

potentialforoverheatinginsuburbs(Chapter7),and

onresidents’andotherstakeholders’responsesto

adaptation(Chapters8and9).Thereportconcludes

withkeymessagesaboutthe‘best’suburban

adaptationsolutions,andthechallengesofbringing

aboutsuburbanchange(Chapter10).

Figure 1.1 Aconceptualrationalefortheconditionsandchallengesunderlyingsuburbanadaptation

15

2.1 Introduction

Thissectionprovidesabriefsummaryofthe

approachandmethodsadoptedbytheSNACC

project.Theprojectadopteda‘socio-technical’

approachtoestablishtheperformanceofanumber

ofpotentialclimatechangeadaptionandmitigation

measuresforsuburbsandtotesttheirfeasibility

andacceptabilitywitharangeofstakeholders

likelytobeinvolvedintheirimplementation.The

researchmethodsareacombinationofmodelling,

visualisationsandresidents’andstakeholders’

workshops.Theresearchwasundertakeninsix

suburbs(representingdifferentsuburbantypologies,

seeChapter3)inthreecities:Oxford,Stockportand

Bristol.Theresearchwasundertakeninfivephases

(Figure2.1).

2.2 Overall approach (summary)

SNACC’soverallapproachwastodevelopandthen

test(foreffectiveness, feasibility and acceptability)

arangeofadaptationoptions(singularlyandin

‘packages’)fordifferenttypesofsuburbinEngland.

Insodoing,wealsosoughttounderstandhow

andwhydifferentadaptationsmayormaynot

beimplemented(nowandinthefuture):i.e.we

soughttounderstandmoreabouttheprocessesof

suburbanadaptation.

The SNACC research project - approach and methods

Chapter 2

Theeffectivenessoftheproposedadaptationswas

assessedthroughmodelling(forsomemeasures)

andbyusingexistingdata(forothers).Wewere

seekingtofindoutwhichadaptationmeasures

‘worked’,i.e.didthejobtheyweredesignedtodo,

beit,forexample,coolingorallowingstormwater

todrainaway,withoutnegativeimpactssuchas

increasingcarbonemissionsinthelongterm.

Foreachcasestudysuburbtheclimateriskswere

assessedandasetofpotentialadaptationswas

identified.Ineachcasetheeffectivemeasureswere

thentakenforwardandpresentedtoresidentsin

thatsuburbtodeterminetheirviewsonthefeasibility

andacceptabilityoftheadaptationoptions.

Tofacilitatemeaningfuldiscussionsatthe

workshops,someoftheadaptationswerevisualised

usingcomputergraphicstohelpresidentsseewhat

eithertheirhouseorgardenortheirneighbourhood

lookedlikewiththeproposedadaptationoption.

Wealsoexploredtheeffectsonpropertyvaluesof

someadaptations(usingahedonichousepricing

model)and,whereappropriate,thisinformationwas

alsopresentedtoresidents.Attheworkshops,the

participantswerealsopresentedwiththeresults

frommodellingthatshowedtheoverheatingrisks

totheirhomesandtheeffectivenessofdifferent

Phase 5 Determining

findings

WP9:Determining

‘best’adaptation

packages

Phase 4 Testing

WP8:Testingadapta-

tionsforfeasibility

andacceptabilitywith

residentsandstake-

holders

Phase 3 Modelling

WP7:Modellinga

selectionofpotential

adaptations

Phase 2 Data

Collection

WP6:Selectingcase

studyneighbour-

hoods,collecting

baselinedatafor

thecasestudies,

identifyingclimate

risk,selectinglocal

adaptations

Phase 1 Enabling the

research

WP1:Climate

changescenarios

WP2:Socio-cultur-

al,governanceand

policycontext

WP3:Typol-

ogyofsuburban

neighbourhoods&

potentialadapta-

tions

WP4:Modelof

hedonicpricing

WP5:DECoRuM

andVEPs

Figure 2.1 SNACCprojectphases

Chapter 2

16

adaptationswithrespecttocooling.Foreaseof

understandingforparticipants,wesummarised

theadaptationoptionsinto:‘mitigation:homeand

garden’,‘summer:homeandgarden’(dealingmainly

withadaptationsaroundheatstressandwater

shortages)and‘winter:homeandgarden’(dealing

mainlywithadaptationsaroundstorms,increased

precipitationandflooding).Wethendiscussed

neighbourhoodissuesaround‘streets’and‘green

spaces’.Fortheneighbourhoodscalewedealtwith

mitigationandadaptationissuessimultaneously.

Weacknowledgethatthesegroupingsarean

oversimplificationofclimatechangepatterns,but

theywereanecessaryshorthandforengagingwith

residentsandstakeholders.Attheworkshopsthe

residentsgavetheirviewsonclimatechangeandthe

adaptationsweshowedthem.

Thefindingsfromtheresidents’workshopswere

thenpresentedtolocalinstitutionalstakeholders

(includingrepresentativesfromlocalgovernment,

NGOs,andbuiltenvironmentalprofessions)at

astakeholderworkshopineachcitytofindout

theirresponsestoboththeadaptationsandto

theresidents’views.Throughthisprocesswe

determinedtheeffective,feasibleandacceptable

adaptationsolutionsfromtheperspectiveof

institutionalstakeholders,andlearntaboutwhatwas

helpingand/orhinderingadaptation,andabouthow

toenableorpromoteadaptiveaction.Forclarity:

• Byeffectivewemeant:theadaptationdidthejob

itwasdesignedtodo,withoutadverseimpacts

(i.e.itcooledahome,orpreventedstormdamage

withoutadverseeffects).

• Byfeasiblewemeant:theadaptationwas

possibletoimplementinaparticularplace,given

theexistingneighbourhoodmorphologyand

housingconditions(i.e.wedidnottestcavitywall

insulationinsuburbswithsolidwalls).Another

considerationwasthatthescaleoftheadaptation

wasappropriateforthesuburbinquestion(i.e.

wedidnottestmajorfloodbarriersorlarge-scale

infrastructurechangesasthesewerenotfeasible

atthelocalscaleofourcasestudysuburbs).

• Byacceptablewemeant:theadaptationwasone

thatstakeholderswouldbelikelytoimplementor

welcomeintheirneighbourhood.Thismeantthat,

forexample,thatitwas‘acceptable’intermsof

cost,visualappearance,andabsenceofnegative

side-effects.

2.3 The research methodology

Themethodologywassplitintofivephasesand

nineworkpackages(WPs),(Figure2.1).Thissection

describesthekeyelementsofeach.

TheresearchstartedinSeptember2009.Priorto

theresearchcommencinganAdvisory Boardwas

setuptohelpsteertheresearchandshapethe

natureofenquiry.Ataveryearlystagewealsoheld

anInternational Visiting Researchers Conference,

whichwasattendedbyexpertsinsuburban

adaptationfromtheUSA,Portugal,Australiaand

Swedentosharetheirexperiencesofdifferent

climaticconditions,adaptationactions,policiesand

governanceconditions.AllAdvisoryBoardmembers

andcontributionstothisconferencecanbefoundat

www.snacc-research.org.uk.

Phase 1 (Year 1)involvedarangeofbackground

workthatwasneededtoenablethecasestudiesto

takeplaceandtohelpunderstandtheproblemof

adaptingsuburbs.Itwasalsonecessarytogenerate

thedatarequiredtoundertakethemodellingand

visualisationwork,andtodevelopthemodellingand

visualisationtools.Hence,inthisphasewe:

• Developed climate change scenarios for our

three case study cities(WP1).Thesearesetoutin

Chapter6.

• Developed an understanding of the socio-

cultural and governance issuessurrounding

suburbanadaptation,whichcouldhavean

impactonresponsecapacity(WP2).Thisphase

informedourselectionofcasestudies.Wealso

documented the current English policy context

forsuburbanadaptation(WP2).Thisispresented

inChapter5.

• Developed a typology of English suburbs and a

‘master list’ of potential adaptation optionsthat

couldbeimplementedinEnglishsuburbs(WP3).

Thiswasachievedfollowingaliteratureandpolicy

review,andispresentedinChapters3and4,and

AppendixDandE.

• Developed a model of hedonic pricing,that

exploredtheimpactonpropertyvaluesofarange

ofadaptationoptionsandsuburbanconditions

(WP4).Whereappropriate,thefindingsofthis

workwereusedintheresidents’andstakeholders’

17

workshops.Adetailedexplanationofthemodel

anditsfindingsisgiveninAppendixA,buta

summaryispresentedhere.

Thehedonic pricing modellingaimedto

determinewhichneighbourhoodadaptation

features,houseenergyconsumptionattributes

andenvironmentalcharacteristics(ofthewider

neighbourhood)arecapitalisedintothevalueof

residentialproperty.Hencethehedonicpricing

modelwasdevelopedtoanalysepotentialhousing

marketresponsestosuburbanadaptationoptions.

However,becausemanyoftheadaptationswe

areinterestedinarenotwidelyapplied,itisnot

yetpossibletomodelthefullrangeofadaptations

(e.g.therearefewcommunitycoolroomsorgreen

roofsinEngland).Inaddition,manyofthechanges

wearelookingataretoosubtletosignificantly

influenceprice(forexample,elevationofelectrical

sockets).However,throughareviewofexisting

literatureandanalysisofextensivedatabasesof

propertytransactions/valuesitwaspossibleto

throwsomelightontheimpactonhouseprices

ofstreettrees,gardens,accessibilitytoopen

space,flooding,neighbourhoodcharacteristics

andlayout,andphysicaladaptationsthatimprove

energyefficiency(insulation,doubleglazing,

solarpanelsetc).Intermsofthemodelling,the

empiricalstudyfocusedontheimpactofenergy

efficiency(SAP)rating,insulation,doubleglazing,

heatingsystems,gardensandaccessibilitytoopen

space.Generallythemeasuresassessedhada

positiveeffectonhousevalues(i.e.betteradapted

housesinbetteradaptedneighbourhoodssell

forhigherpricesthanmal-adaptedones,allother

thingsbeingequal).Wethentestedwhetherthis

wasamotivatorforhouseholderstoinvestinsuch

measures,ortosupporttheirintroduction,during

theworkshops.

• Developed two existing models (DECoRuM©

[Domestic Energy, Carbon counting and

carbon Reduction Model] and VEPS [Virtual

Environmental Planning System]) for use in the

SNACC project (WP5).Anexplanationofthe

developmentofthemodelsisgiveninAppendices

BandC.However,abriefsummaryofeachis

usefulheretounderstandtheirpurposeand

scope.

DECoRuM©(DomesticEnergy,Carboncounting

andcarbonReductionModel)isaGIS-based

toolkitforcarbonemissionsreductionplanning

withthecapabilitytoestimatecurrentenergy-

relatedCO2emissionsandtheeffectivenessof

mitigationstrategiesinexistingUKdwellings.The

resultscanbeaggregatedtoastreet,district

andcitylevel(Gupta,2008;Gupta,2009).The

aggregatedmethodofsimulationandmap-based

presentationallowstheresultstobescaledupfor

largerapplicationandassessment.

FortheSNACCproject,DECoRuMwasfurther

developedasDECoRuM-Adapt©toanalysethe

impactofclimatechangeonenergyuseand

comfort.DECoRuM-Adaptusesdownscaled

climatedatafromUKCP09(DEFRA,2012a)to

estimateprobabilisticfutureoverheatingpotential

andtheeffectivenessofadaptationstrategiesfor

modelleddwellings.Toinformthemodel,actual

homeandneighbourhoodcharacteristicsneed

tobegatheredfrommaps,on-siteassessments

andliteraturedescribinghomecharacteristics

basedonageandtypology.Themodelcanexport

awealthofstatisticalinformation.ForSNACCwe

wereinterestedinannualCO2emissions,running

costsandoverheatingpotential(particularlythe

potentialoncevariousadaptationpackageshad

beenapplied).Figure2.2showsoutputs(inthis

caseCO2emissions)fromthemodelfortwo

neighbourhoodsinBristol.

18

The VEPs (Virtual Environmental Planning

System) isaGeographicalInformationSystem

(GIS)basedvisualisationthatcreatesinteractive

andaccurateimagesof3Durbanenvironments.

Theaimofthevisualisationwastoenableresidents

andstakeholderstoviewandanalyseproposed

adaptationoptionsinordertounderstandtheir

effectsontheexistinghousingandneighbourhood

andmakedecisionsabouttheiracceptability

(Figure2.3).Weusedthevisualisationtoenablethe

workshopparticipantstograspcomplexinformation

aboutpotentialadaptations,andtoassesstheir

acceptability,includingtheirvisualimpact,onthe

existingenvironment.Theimagesshow‘snapshots’

fromthedynamicmodel.

Phases 2 and 3 of the project(Year2)involved

selectingthecasestudies,gatheringbaseline

dataonthem,identifyingtheclimaterisksineach

case,andidentifyingtherangeofadaptationsto

betestedineachofthedifferenttypesofsuburb

(WP6).ThisworkispresentedinChapter6.Wethen

modelledarangeofpotentialadaptationoptions

(usingDECoRuM),specificallytodeterminetheir

overheatingrisk,andtofindoutwhichadaptation

packagesmightreducethatrisk(WP7).Thisis

presentedinChapter7.

Phases 4 and 5(Year3)involvedtestingthefeasibility

andacceptabilityoftheadaptationpackageswith

residentsandstakeholdersatstructuredworkshops.

Wedrewtogetherallthepreviousinformationwe

Figure 2.2:DECoRuMmapsshowingCO2emissionsfortwoneighbourhoodsinBristol(Source:Digimap,2012;The

DECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).ModelsreproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefortheUseofOrdnance

SurveyDatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncil.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnance

Survey/EDINAsuppliedservice.

Figure 2.3:VirtualenvironmentofoneoftheBristol

casestudies,showinganeighbourhoodbeforeandafter

adaptation.Modelsreproducedunderthetermsofthe

Contractor’sLicencefortheUseofOrdnanceSurvey

DatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncil,Maps

©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnance

Survey/EDINAsuppliedservice.

19

hadgatheredonadaptationsforeachcasestudy

fromtheliteratureandpolicyreview,fromthe

modelling(fromtheHedonicPricingModeland

theDECoRuMmodel),andfromthevisualisations

(usingtheVEPS)andpresentedthistobothresident

andinstitutionalstakeholders.Theresidentswere

shown,forexample,theirneighbourhoods’risk

ofoverheatingandwhichadaptationsmighthelp

reducetherisk.Theywerealsoshowntherange

ofadaptationsthatmight,forexample,prevent

damagefromfloodsorstorms,helpthemconserve

water,andmitigateagainstfurtherclimatechange.

Theyweregiveninformationonwhatthese

adaptationsdo,howmuchtheycost,andwhatthey

looklike.Theinstitutionalstakeholdersreflected

ontheirownexperiencesofworkingonadaptation

ineachcity,butalsoontheresponsesthatthe

residentshadgiveninthetwocasestudysuburbsin

theircity.

Weheldsevenresidentsworkshopsinsixsuburbs

(weheldtwointhesamesuburbinBristolbecauseof

localdemand).Thegroupswereofbetween6and15

people.Theywererecruitedusingapostalinvitation.

Attheworkshopswediscussed:

• residents’experiencesofdifferentweatherevents

(heatwaves,floods,storms);

• theirattitudestowardsclimatechange;

• theirfamiliaritywiththerangeofadaptation

measuresthatcouldbeeffectiveintheir

neighbourhood(atthehome,gardenand

neighbourhoodscales);

• whethertheyhave(orwouldconsider)

implementingthesemeasures,andtheirreasons

fordoingso,and;

• iftheywouldnotconsiderimplementingthe

measures,thenwhatthekeybarriersand

incentivesmightbe.

Thefindingsfromtheresidentsworkshopsare


Wethenheldthreestakeholderworkshops

(oneineachcity).Thestakeholdersincluded

representativesfromawiderangeoforganisations

including:localauthorities(bothofficersfrom

developmentcontrol,climatechange,strategic

housing,drainagemanagementandelected

councillors);theEnvironmentAgency;regional

bodieswithaninterestinclimatechangeadaptation

(ClimateSouthEast);theNationalHealthService

(publichealth);UnitedUtilities(water);Non-

GovernmentalOrganisations(LondonFlooding

Alliance,BristolGreenDoors,BristolHousing

Foundation);thebuildingandconstruction

industry(theFederationofMasterBuildersand

architecturalpracticesengagedindomesticwork);

andcommunitygroups(withinterestsinlowcarbon

issuesandfloodprotection).

Attheseworkshopswediscussed:

• Thefindingsfromtheresidents’workshopsin

eachcity,andthestakeholders’experiencesof

workingwithhouseholdslocally;

• Theroleofcommunitiesinadaptation;

• Howthestakeholdersarecurrentlytackling

adaptation;

• Theroleofplanningandbuildingregulationsin

adaptations;

• Thebestmechanismsfordeliveringadapted

suburbs.

Thefindingsofthestakeholderworkshopsare


Phase 5(Year3)oftheresearchinvolved

synthesisingtheinformationfromalltheprevious

strandsoftheresearchtodeterminethe‘best’

adaptationpackagesforthedifferenttypesof

suburb.Thisphasealsodrewoutkeyfindingsabout

theprocessesofadaptationandhowtoenablemore

effectiveadaptationinthefuture.Thissynthesisand

conclusionsarepresentedinChapter10.

21

A Typology of English suburbs

3.1 Introduction

Inordertounderstandhowbesttoadaptsuburbs,

itisimportanttodeterminepreciselywhatasuburb

is.However,thisisnotstraightforward:astheRICS

andCABEcommented:‘Oneofthekeychallenges

affectingourunderstandingofsuburbiaisthefailure

ofdefinitionandclassification’(RICSandCABE,

2008).Historically,suburbshavebeendefinedeither

bytheirphysicalcharacteristics,usuallydominated

bymorphology,relatedtotheerainwhichthey

werebuilt,(seeforexampleGwilliametal.,1998),or

bythecharacteristicsoftheirpopulations(socio-

demographictypologieshavebeendeveloped,

forexamplebyBondandInsalaco,2007),orby

characterisationsofphysicalandsocialdemographic

criteriaincombination(McManusandEthington,

2007).

SNACChasadoptedanoverarchingdefinitionof

‘asuburb’,buthasalsodevisedatypology,based

mainlyonphysicalcharacteristics(adaptedfrom

Gwilliametal.,1998).TheprojectusesURBED

andSEERA’s(2004)definitionofasuburb,which

recognisesbothsimilaritiesanddifferencesin

areacharacteristicsasthebasisofidentifyingand

distinguishingbetweensuburbanneighbourhoods.

Figure3.1setsoutthesecharacteristicswiththe

lefthandcolumnshowingthecommonelements

foundinmostsuburbsandtherighthandcolumn

givingthedifferentiatingcharacteristics.Basedon

thesecharacteristicswearetakingEnglishsuburbs

tobeareasthatare:largelyresidential;peripheral

(tothecitycentre);medium-lowdensity;mainly

owner-occupied;anddominatedbyfamilyhousing.

However,thischaracteristationhighlightsthat

suburbanneighbourhoodscanbedistinguished

inrelationtodifferencesinage,location,linkages,

layouts,accessibilityandsoon.Although

emphasisingphysicalfeatures,thecharacteristics

setoutinFigure3.1doincludesomesocio-

economicelements(suchashomeownership).

SomeofthecommoncharacteristicsinthisFigure

havebeenchallengedbysuburbanscholars.

Forexample:ratherthanbeingpredominately

residential,somesuburbsarenowvery‘mixed’in

termsofuse(FrancisandWheeler,2006);some

recentlydevelopedsuburbsaremedium-high

density,ratherthan‘low’densityareas(Joynt,2011);

andsomesuburbsareinhabitedbymoreretired

householdsthanfamilieswithchildren.However,

atpresent,suchcasesremainexceptionsanddo

notinvalidatethecharacterisation.Thissaid,future

demographicandurbanformtrendswillclearlymake

revisionsnecessaryinyearstocome.

Characteristics in common Important differences

Predominantlyresidentialareas

Towardstheedgeoftownsandcities

Primarilyfavoredbyandforfamilies

Servinganurbanarea(s)

Relativelylowdensityhousing

Mainlyowneroccupied

Oftenwithgreen,publicspace

‘Detached’orsemi-detachedintermsof

preferredlivingstyle

Desirabilityandvalue

Age

Location

Accesstopublictransport

Parkingprovision

Linkageswithotherplaces

Roadlayoute.g.extentofculs-de-sac

Accessto(andqualityof)services(schools,healthfacili-

ties,shops)

Qualityandquantityofopenspace

Source:adaptedfromURBEDandSEERA,2004

Figure 3.1Definingcharacteristicsofsuburbs

Chapter 3

22

3.2 Defining England’s suburbs: developing a typology for use in the

research

ThetypologyofsuburbsusedinSNACCisshownin

Figure3.2.ItisadaptedfromGwilliametal.(1998)

whodevelopedthecategorisationbasedonbuilt

formandneighbourhoodsetting.Gwilliametal.’s

typologyisthemostwidelycitedinBritishsuburban

studies(e.g.Francisandwheeler,2006,URBED,

2002,2006;Kochan,2007).Thetypesofsuburb

identifiedare;historicinnersuburb,plannedsuburb,

suburbantown,publictransportsuburbandcar

suburb.Wehaveupdatedandslightlyrefinedthis

typologytoinclude:inner-historicsuburb,pre-war

‘gardensuburb’,interwarsuburb,socialhousing

suburb,carsuburbandmedium-highdensitysuburb

(partlyafterURBED,2002).Theadditionof‘medium-

highdensitysuburbs’coversthepolicy-ledtrend

formoreintensivebuiltformdevelopmentsince

themid1990s.Toassistinclarifyingthetypologies,

photographshavealsobeenaddedofeachofthe

typesdescribed.

Inusingthistypologyitisalsorecognisedthat

suburbsarenotstaticenvironments:theyare

continuallychanging,andtherearethosewhoargue

thatmanysuburbsarenowso‘mixed’intermsof

buildingtypethatmorphologicaltypologiesare

redundant(McManusandEthington,2007).Itis

alsothecasethatthenon-physicaldifferences

betweensuburbs,intermsofsocio-economicand

governanceconditionsareimportant,particularlyin

framingresponsestoclimatechange.However,asa

basisforunderstandingthepossibilitiesforchange

tothephysicalconditionsofdifferentsuburbs,itis

importanttoidentifythepredominantbuiltforms

presentinEngland,andtotestadaptationmeasures

inthesedifferentsettings(SNACC’ssixcasestudy

suburbsarerepresentativeofeachofthesetypes).

Suburbsclearlydochangefromtheiroriginalforms,

butinmostinstancestheoriginallayoutsand

dwellingscontinuetoinfluencedevelopment,and

itisfortheseenduringelementsthatadaptation

solutionsneedtobefound.

23

Type Characteristics Era Examples

InnerHistoric

Suburb

Establishedterracedorsemi-detached

developments.Theseareasdisplaymainlyurban

qualities,includinghighdensities,amixofuses,

goodpedestrianandpublictransportlinks

Victorian/

Edwardian-

upto1919

Pre-War‘Garden

Suburb’

Medium-largesemianddetachedhomes

withlargegardens.Formerenclavesthathave

beenabsorbedbythetownorcity(usually

successfully)

1900s-1930s

‘InterwarPeriod’: Mediumdensity,homogeneousspeculative

suburbs,usuallysemi-detached,inaclosely

structuredurbanfabric

1920s-1930s

SocialHousing

Suburb

‘CouncilEstates’withamixofhousetypes

includingdetachedandsemi-detachedhouses,

shortterracesandmediumriseblocks

1950-1970s

CarSuburb Lowdensity,detachedhousinginhomogenous

housetypes.Developer–led,speculative

suburbs,oftenlocatedwithin‘open’townscape

fringeareasincludingwithincloseproximityto

motorways,andout-of-townshoppingcentres.

Sprawlingsuburbs,includingculs-de-sac.

Late

1970s-2000s

Medium-High

DensitySuburbs

Medium-highdensity,oftenwithamixof

housetypesincludingtownhouses,detached

andsemi-detachedhouses,terracesand

apartments.Anoutcomeofthepolicydrive

formoreintensivedevelopmentinurban

extensionsandwithinexistingsuburbs

Mid-1990s-

present

Figure 3.2TypologyofEnglishsuburbs(adaptedfromGwilliametal.,1998andURBED,2002)

25

Chapter 4

4.1 Climate change in suburbs

Thischaptersummarisesthepotentialthreatsof

climatechangeinEnglishsuburbs.Itthensetsouta

rangeofadaptationsthatcouldbeimplementedat

thehome,gardenandneighbourhoodscales.

TheprincipalimpactsofclimatechangethatEnglish

suburbsarelikelytoexperienceinthefutureare:

• Higheraveragetemperatures(suburbswillnotonly

beaffectedbyaveragetemperatureincreases,but

willexperienceanenhancedincreasethroughthe

urbanheatislandeffect);

• Increasedextremeheatevents(orheatwaves);

• Increaseinextremeweathereventsor

‘storminess’(includingrain,wind,hail);

• Increasedaveragewinterrainfall;

• Decreasedaveragesummerrainfall;

• Sealevelriseandincreasedstormsurgeheight

(wedidnotincluderisksfromsealevelrisein

ourstudyduetotherelativelysmallnumberof

suburbsaffected,andthespecialistadaptations

required).

Ofcourse,notallsuburbswillexperiencethese

impactsequally:thereareregionalvariations

anddifferencesduetolocalconditions,suchas

topographyandmorphology,whichgeneratemicro-

climates.Probabilisticdataareavailableformost

ofthesechangesfromUKCP09:thesedatawere

usedatthecityandcasestudyscaleinSNACC(see

Chapter6).Insuburbs,theseclimatechangesare

experiencedbypeoplemainlythroughthesecondary

risksandsomepotentialbenefitsthattheypose.

Someexamplesoftheseimpactsaregivenbelow

(Figure4.1)(categorised,asintheworkshops,into

‘summer’and‘winter’effects).

Potential climate risks and adaptation options for English suburbs

Likely climate changes Impacts on ‘place’ Impacts on ‘people’

‘Summer’impacts

(hotteranddrier)

• Deteriorationofgreenspace,gardens,

playingfieldsandpublicparks

• Longergrowingseasonforsome

plantsandvegetables

• Reducedairquality

• Changesinbiodiversity(althoughmay

allowagreatervarietyofgardencrops)

• Increasedlikelihoodofsubsidencedue

tosoilshrinkage(particularlyonclay

soils)

• Reduceddesignlifeofnon/mal-

adaptedbuildings

• Reducedcomfort:heatstroke,difficulty

sleepingandcarryingoutgeneral

domesticactivities(indoorsand

outside)

• Reducedproductivity(forhome

workers,employeesinsuburbs)

• Increasedrespiratoryproblems

• Reducedsecurityduetouseofnatural

ventilation

• Increasedcostsrelatedtobuilding

subsidence

• Increasedcostsduetomechanical

cooling

• Watershortages:restrictionson

domesticsuppliesandqualityreduction

• Morewarmdaystoenjoyoutdoor

activities

‘Winterimpacts’

(slightlywarmer,butwetter,

withmorestorms)

• Flooddamage

• Stormdamagetobuildings,natural

landscapeandinfrastructure

• Increaseindampandmould

• Humanimpactsofflooddamage:

displacement,trauma,costs(worsefor

somegroups,e.g.elderlypeople)

• Increasedcostsofrepairingfloodand

stormdamageandmaintaininghomes

• Investmentsinhomeslessstableafter

floods

• Healthproblemslinkedtopoorerindoor

airquality:respiratoryproblems

• Maybecostsavingonwinterfuel

Figure 4.1

Examplesofexpected

climatechangeimpacts

inEnglishsuburbs

26

4.2 Determining the range of adaptation and mitigation options that could be implemented in suburbs to address a range of climate threats

Inordertobothmitigateagainstfurtherclimate

change,andtoadapttoinevitablechanges,arange

ofadaptationmeasurescouldbeimplemented.

Aliteraturereviewidentifiedover100possible

changesthatcouldbemadetothephysical

environmentinsuburbstorespondtothechanges

outlinedabove.Theseadaptationsrangefromvery

smallscalechangestothehome,suchaselevating

electricalsocketstoreducedamagefromflooding,

tolargescalestrategies,suchasdemolishingwhole

neighbourhoodsinfloodplains.Wecompileda

‘masterlist’ofadaptationstotestinSNACC.We

arenotadvocatingthattheseadaptationswouldbe

effectiveinallcircumstances,wearemerelylisting

themaspossibleactionsinatleastsomesuburban

neighbourhoods.

Thefull‘masterlist’ofadaptationoptionscanbe

foundinAppendixD.Itdetailstheadaptationswhich

wereidentifiedasappropriatefortheneighbourhood

typesselectedinthecasestudies.Notallofthe

adaptationswereappropriateforallofthesuburbs,

buteachoftheadaptationspresentedisappropriate

foratleastoneofthem.Theoptionswerechosen

toaddresseitherthemitigationoffutureclimate

Built environment

scale/elementExamples of potential adaptation and/or mitigation options

Neighbourhood • Increasegreenery:greeninfrastructure

• Improvewater/drainagefeatures:installSustainableUrbanDrainageSystems

• Installlocalisedflooddefences:toprotectasingledwellingorgroupofdwellingsina

neighbourhood

• Restrictinfilldevelopmentonsoilswithpotentiallyhighinfiltrationandfloodplains

• Adaptpublicamenities:addshadeandstormprotectiontopublicbuildings,busstops,cycle

pathsetc.introducecommunitycoolrooms

• Replacepavementsandroadswithporous,‘cool’materials

• Introduceinfrastructuretoencouragewalkingandcycling,reduceparkingspaces,addcycle

paths

• Allocatecommunallandforfoodgrowing

• Installcommunityenergygeneratinginfrastructure

• Installenergyefficientstreetlighting

Garden • Increasegreenery:planttreeswithlargecanopiesandheattolerantplants

• Installwaterfeatures

• Installrainwaterharvestingsystems

• Removenon-poroussurfaces

• Setasidespaceforfoodgrowing

• Improve/maintaingardenstructures(fences,shedsetc.againststormdamage)

Home • Regulatetemperature:e.g.addexternalshutters,shadesorcanopiestowalls,installsolar

shading,interpaneglazing,solarfilm,installwindowsthatlockopentoaidventilation,solar

chimneyordowndraughtevaporativecoolingtowers,introducethermalmass,addgreen/

brownroof

• Protecthomefromstormsandfloods:e.g.weatherproofdoors,windows,walls,floorsand

roof;elevateentrythresholds,internalsocketsandservices;installairbrickcoversandflash

flooddoors

• Improveairquality:e.g.useUVlightorantimicrobialsolutionstopreventmould,improve

naturalventilation

• Installwaterefficiencysystems(e.g.greywaterrecycling)

• Mitigateagainstfurtherclimatechange:e.g.insulatewallsandlofts,draftproofhomes,

introducemicroCHP,groundsourceheatpumps,solarPVandwaterheating

Figure 4.2

Examplesofpotential

adaptationand/or

mitigationoptionsthat

couldbeimplemented

inEngland’ssuburbs

changeoradaptationtothefuturerisksofclimate

change.Onlyadaptationswhichofferedeithera

neutralorpositiveimpactontheproductionof

greenhousegaseswereconsideredandsome

verylargescaleadaptations,e.g.thoserelatingto

majorinfrastructurewereomitted.Someofthe

adaptationsalsohavemorethanonebenefitand

thisisnoted(forexample,extendingtheeaves

onabuildingaddsshading,aswellasprotecting

propertiesfromtheimpactofheavyrain).

Theadaptationsarepresentedasapplicableto

homesandgardens(walls,roofs,windows,floors,

heating,cooling,power,ventilationsystems,water

systemsandgardens)andneighbourhoods(green

andblueinfrastructure,protectingexistingassets,

communityprovisions,streetsandpavements,

andlanduses–e.g.forfoodproduction).Figure4.2

givesasummaryofsomeadaptationsthatcouldbe

implemented(takenfromthemasterlist).Itpresents

thematneighbourhood,gardenandhomescales.

Forthepurposesoftheresidents’andstakeholders’

workshops,wepresentedadaptationoptionsthat

wereappropriateforeachsuburbtakingintoaccount

theclimaterisks,andtheurbandesignof,and

housingtypesin,theneighbourhood.

29

The policy context for suburban change

Chapter 5

5.1 Introduction

Suburbanneighbourhoodsarecomplexanddiverse

placesthatarelikelytoexperienceavariationof

impactsarisingfromclimatechange.Reflecting

thisdiversity,theagenciesandorganisations

implicatedinensuringthatbothsuburbanhousing

andsuburbanneighbourhoodscontinuetobesafe,

healthyandservicedplacesinthefaceofclimate

changecoverawiderangeofpolicysectorsand

territoriallevels.Thischapterdescribesthepolicy

andgovernancecontextsthatframethepossibilities

foradaptingsuburbanneighbourhoodsandhousing

inEngland.Itsetsouttherolesandresponsibilities

ofcentralandlocalgovernment,theimpactofthe

statutoryplanningsystemandtheimplementation

ofretrofittingprogrammesintheexistinghousing

stock.

5.2 Central and local government and climate change adaptation in suburban neighbourhoods

Thepolicycontextfortheadaptationofresidential

housing(andneighbourhoods)inEnglandtothe

challengesofclimatechangeisbothcomplexand

hasbeensubjecttoon-goingchangethrough

the2000sandtothepresentday.Responsibilities

forengagingandensuringtheappropriatequality

oftheEnglishhousingstockandresidential

urbanareasaresplitacrossanumberofdifferent

governmentdepartments(seeFigure5.1).Whereas

theDepartmentforEnvironment,FoodandRural

Affairs(DEFRA)retainstheoverallremittomonitor

climatechangeadaptation,itistheDepartment

forCommunitiesandLocalGovernmentthatmost

directlyretainsresponsibilityforensuringthequality

Department Policy theme/sector

DCLG(Communities

andLocalGovern-

ment)

Sustainablecommunities,statutoryplanningsystem,buildingregulations(andcodesincluding

energyperformancecertification),social(andaffordable)housing,localgovernment(in

generaltouchingonparks,roadsandservices),regeneration,lifetimehomes,emergency

services

DEFRA(Environment,

FoodandRuralAffairs)

Climatechangeadaptation(ingeneral),pollutionandwaste,floodinganddrainage,market

transformationprogramme(promotionofsustainableproducts)

DECC(Energyand

ClimateChange)

Climatechangemitigation(carbonemissionsissues),fuelpoverty,energypolicy(micro

generation),GreenDeal

DBIS(BusinessInnova-

tionandSkills)

Climatechangemitigation(carbonemissionsissues),fuelpoverty,energypolicy(micro

generation),GreenDeal

Treasury Houseprices,housingfinance,fiscalincentives,settingofcounciltaxandstampduty

DepartmentofHealth Housingforolderpeopleandpeopleinneedofcare

Figure 5.1 Centralgovernmentdepartmentsandsuburbanadaptation.

Chapter 5

30

ofboththehousingstockandthebuiltenvironment

throughlocalgovernment,spatialplanningpolicy,

andbuildingregulations.Equally,overrecentyears

theworkoftheDepartmentofEnergyandClimate

Change(DECC)onreducingcarbonemissionshas

cometobeanimportantdriverforretrofittingthe

Englishhousingstocktoincreaseenergyefficiency

andtodecreasefuelpoverty.

Thekeystructuringpolicydeviceforunderstanding

climatechangeadaptationinEnglandinbothcentral

andlocalgovernmentarisesfromtheClimate

ChangeAct2008(HMGovt,2008).Forthemostpart

theActisconcernedwithreducingcarbonemissions

fromtheUKasawholebutitdoesincludeprovisions:

forthesettingupofanAdaptationSub-Committee

oftheCommitteeonClimateChangetoscrutinise

theadaptationworkoftheUKGovernment;andfor

thedefinitionofa‘reportingduty’forpublicbodies

andstatutoryundertakersonrisksassociatedwith

climatechange(NAO,2009a).Forthepublicbodies

andstatutoryundertakersthisdutyamountsto

arequirementtoreporttotheCommitteeevery

fiveyearsontheactionstheyhavetakentoface

uptotheclimatechangechallenge.Thesereports

formpartoftheprocessofclimatechangerisk

assessment(CCRA),andaNationalAdaptationPlan

(NAP)withinwhichthebuiltenvironmentisaspecific

themeforattention(DEFRA,2012b).

Englishlocalauthoritieshaveawiderangeofroles

andresponsibilities,manyofwhichtouchupon

neighbourhoodsandhousing.Localauthoritiesare

responsibleforlocalplanning(bothintermsofplan-

makingandgrantingpermissiontodevelop).They

arealsoresponsibleforthemaintenanceandupkeep

oflocalroads,municipalparksandflooddefences,

andarelocaldrainageauthorities.Localauthorities

canbesignificantsociallandlordsandarelikelyto

bemajorlandownerswithregardstotheservices

theyprovide(includingschoolsandcommunity

centres).Localauthoritiesarekeyagenciesinsetting

outemergencyresponseplans(tofloodingorheat

wavesforexample).Between2000and2012English

localauthoritiesalsohadapowerofwell-beingthat

couldbedeployedtoallowthemtoengageinany

activity(notprohibitedbystatute)thatimprovedthe

well-beingoftheirresidents.

Duringtheperiod2008-10,localauthoritieswere

expectedtoreporttheiractivitiesinsupportof

tacklingclimatechangeagainstaperformance

measureknownasnationalindicator188(or

NI188).LocalauthorityperformanceonNI188

wasassessedonascaleof0(‘gettingstarted’)to

4(‘Implementation,monitoringandcontinuous

review’).However,sinceNovember2010local

authoritiesinEnglandhavenolongerneededto

reportprogressontacklingclimatechangeto

CentralGovernment.HoweverDCLGoutlinesthat

its‘sharedvision’withrespecttoclimatechange

adaptation‘isthatmostadaptationactionhappens

orneedstohappenatthelocalscale’(DCLG2011,

p.10).

Localauthoritieshavecontinuedtoaquire

responsibilitiesthatwillbeimplicatedbychanges

intheclimate.ForexampletheFloodsandWater

ManagementAct2010(HMGovt,2010)establishes

aSustainableDrainageSystemsApprovingBody

inunitaryorcountycouncilssuchthatlocal

governmentneedstoapprovedrainageschemes

forbothnewdevelopmentandforrefurbished

development(localauthoritieshavealsoacquireda

responsibilityforpublichealthissues).Hencelocal

authoritiesstillneedtoaddresstheimplicationsof

climatechangeacrosstheirareasincludingwithin

residentialneighbourhoodsevenifthisisless

explicitlylabelledasa‘climatechange’issuethan

mighthavebeenthecasepriorto2010.

31

5.3 Spatial planning and the housing stock

Anythingotherthanveryminorchangesinthe

suburbanenvironmentarenowcarriedoutunderthe

NationalPlanningPolicyFramework(NPPF)(DCLG,

2012b),andthroughcompliancewithbuilding

controlregulations.TheNPPFincludesadaptation

andmitigationasplanningobjectives:adaptationis

specificallyhighlightedasapriorityinrelationtoflood

risk.ButtheFrameworkprovideslittledetailorpolicy

drivenmechanismstosupportretrofittingthebuilt

environmenttoadapttoclimatethreats.

TheNPPFreplacesasuiteofPlanningPolicy

Statements(PPS)thatweremoredetailedand

prescriptiveinrelationtoclimatechange.Arevised

planningpolicystatement(PPS1)waspublishedin

December2007tosetoutobjectivesinrelationto

climatechange(DCLG,2007a).Shortlyafter,Area

BasedGrants(paymentstolocalplanningauthorities

inordertocarryoutvariousplanningroles)were

increasedtoreflectadditionalworkaroundtheissue

ofclimatechange.PPS1stressedtheimportance

ofdealingwithclimatechangeadaptation(aswell

asclimatechangemitigationmeasures)whereby

newdevelopment(includinghousing)‘shouldbe

plannedtominimisefuturevulnerabilityinachanging

climate’(2007,p.10).However,PPS1alsostated

thatdemandsupondeveloperstodealwithclimate

changeshouldbe‘proportionatetothescaleofthe

proposeddevelopment[and]itslikelyimpacton

andvulnerabilitytoclimatechange’(2007a,p.11).

Thisleftplanningofficersinaproblematicposition

giventhatdeveloperswerenotalwayssupportive

ofaplan-ledapproachtotacklingclimatechange:

of11developerswhorespondedtotheclimate

changePPSconsultation,tendidnotagreewiththe

propositionthattherewasaneedforurgentclimate

action(DCLG,2007b).

Inaddition,therewasalsoanincreasedawareness

ofpreventingdevelopmentinareasthatareat

riskofflooding(definedasa1ina100yearevent

undercurrentclimaticconditions).PlanningPolicy

Statement25(PPS25)(DCLG,2010)introduceda

risk-basedprocedurebywhichplannersmightjudge

theappropriatenessofdevelopmentproposalsfor

floodplaindevelopmentaswellasensuringthatthe

EnvironmentAgencyisconsultedonalldevelopment

proposalsonthefloodplain.Thisrisk-based

approachhasbeenretainedintheNPPF.

Intermsofaffectingadaptationinexistingsuburbs

however,theplanningsystemisrelativelylimited.Its

canonlyaffectthehousingstockintwoways:itcan

Figure 5.2

Developmentin

housingstock2000-

12(source:DCLG,

2012c)

32

regulatenewhousing(whichinexistingsuburbsis

likelytobeinfill,‘backland’orredevelopmentand;

itcanregulatemajorchanges(suchasextensions

andremodelling)inexistinghomes.Inbothcases

planningpermissionisrequired.Hence,theplanning

systemcannotforcehome-ownerstoadapttheir

property,butcanonlyshapedevelopmentwhen

someone(resident,builderand/ordeveloper)wants

tomakeachange.

Figure5.2showsthedegreeofimpactofthe

planningsystemontheEnglishhousingstocksince

2000.Thenumberofnewhousesbuiltonanannual

basisisshown(inred)andthenumberofplanning

applicationsmadebyhouseholderstocarryout

workontheirhome(inblue).Giventhattheannual

numberofplanningapplicationsforhouseholder

developmentarebetween200,000andjustunder

350,000,thisaccountsforbetween1%and2.3%

oftheowneroccupiedhousingstockinEngland.

Hence,thecapacityofthestatutoryplanningsystem

torapidlyre-shapetheexistingsuburbanhousing

stockisatbestlimited.

5.4 Policies and programmes shaping the building and maintenance of housing in England

InEngland,buildingregulationsdefinethe

appropriatelevelofperformancefromthebuilt

environment.Buildingregulationsaremadeupof

primarylegislationintheformoftheBuildingAct

1984(HMGovt,1984),secondarylegislationinthe

formoftheamendedbuildingregulations(2000)

andaseriesofother‘approveddocuments’.Building

regulationsonlyimpactonnewor‘significantly

altered’buildingsrequiringplanningpermission

(seeFigure5.2).Inrelationtoclimatechange

issuesbuildingregulationshavemainlytaken

intoconsiderationtheissueofcarbonemissions

(eitherintermsoftheconstructionmethodorthe

operationaluseofthebuilding).InparticularPartL1b

(2010)istheapproveddocumentthatspecifically

dealswiththeconservationoffuelandpowerin

existingdwellings,andPartFdealswithventilation

issues.Inthe2012reviewofthebuildingregulations

theremaybeareinforcementtofaceuptoissuesof

excessivesolargain.

Overandabovetheon-goingrevisionofbuilding

regulations,CentralGovernmentalsoproduced

aCodeforSustainableHomes(DCLG,2006)that

setoutabroadervisionofwhatconstitutesa

‘sustainablehome’introducingminimumstandards

inrelationtoenergyandwaterefficiency,notionsof

well-beingandlifetimeadaptabilityofthehousing

stock.Howeverthiscodeisonlyappliedtonew

buildingandforthemostpartithasbeeneffectively

appliedineithersocialhousingprojects(Housing

Associationsandotherregisteredsociallandlords)

orwithinaffordablehousingprojects(thatmight

includesomeelementsofowner-occupiedhomes).

Unlikebuildingregulations,theperformance

measuresintheCodeforSustainableHomesarenot

legallyenforceable.

Inparalleltobothchangesinthebuildingregulations

andthepublicationandsubsequentpiecemeal

implementationoftheCodeforSustainableHomes,

therehasbeenanon-goingconcerningovernment

inrelationtofuelpoverty.‘WarmFront’wasa

programmeforup-gradingthehomesoffuel-poor

householdswithbetterinsulationandheating

systemstoallowdisadvantagedhouseholdstostay

warmaffordably.TheWarmFrontprogrammewas

initiatedin2000witharevisionfortheperiod2005-

08.Fortheperiod2001-04,theschemeassisted

around900,000vulnerablehouseholds(Greenand

Gilbertson,2008)whilstfor2005-08itisestimated

thattheprogrammeintervenedin635,000dwellings

atacostofaround£852million(NationalAudit

Office,2009b).

The‘GreenDeal’isanemergingvehicleforfunding

theon-goingretrofittingofEnglishhousingwith

regardstoenergyefficiencythatwillbeopentoa

widerrangeofhouseholders(DECC,2010).Oneof

thefeaturesoftheproposed’Deal’isthatenergy

efficiencymeasurescarriedoutonpropertiesare

fundedthroughaloantobepaidbackasalevyon

householderenergybillsaftertheworkshavebeen

completed.Theliabilityassociatedwiththeenergy

efficiencymeasuresislinkedtothedwellingand

notthehouseholdersuchthatifthehouseholder

moves,itistheincominghouseholderwhotakes

responsibilityforpayingbacktheGreenDealloan.

HoweverinexplainingtheGreenDeal,DECChas

outlineda‘goldenrule’thatmightbeappliedto

retrofittinganyindividualdwellinginthisway:‘the

33

chargeattachedtothe[energy]bill[receivedbythe

applicantaftertheworks]shouldnotexceedthe

expectedsavings,andthelengthofthepayment

periodshouldnotexceedtheexpectedlifetimeof

themeasures’(DECC,2010,p.11).

Thustherehavebeenaseriesofon-goingreforms

bothtotheregulationsandcodesthatdefinewhatis

an‘appropriate’standardofhousinginEnglandand

aseriesoffundedprogrammesthathaveattempted

tomakechangesintheexistinghousingstockmore

energyefficient(especiallyinrelationtoheating).

Itisimportantthattheseregulationsandprogramme

interventionsensurethehousingstockisbetter

adaptedtotheprojectedclimateoverthenext50-

80years.

35

Chapters 6

The SNACC Case Studies: selection, climate change projections and suburb profiles

6.1 Introduction

ThisChapterexplainshowwechosethecasestudy

neighbourhoodsforSNACC.Itsetsoutthecriteria

weused,andpresentsthecasesinrelationtothese.

Itthenpresentstheclimatechangeprojectionsfor

eachofthethreecitiesstudied.Finally,wepresent

profilesofthesixcasestudies,showingtheclimate

riskstheyface,theirexistingphysicalconditions,and

theadaptationsselectedtotestineachone.

InordertoexaminesuburbanadaptationinEngland

inthemostcomprehensivewayaswaspossiblewe

chosetostudysixdifferentsuburbsreflectingthe

sixsuburbantypologiesdescribedinChapter3:inner

historic,pre-war,gardencity,interwar,socialhousing,

carsuburb,andmedium-highdensity.

Threefurthercriteriaalsoinformedourselections.

Itwasdeemedimportanttoselectsuburbsthathad

differentlevelsofeconomicresources,intermsof

thewealthofthehouseholds,asthiswasidentified

asapotentiallysignificantfactorindeterminingthe

responsecapacityinthesuburb.Hencewechose

suburbscharacterisedbydifferingincomelevels

(lowerandmedium-high).However,wealsowanted

toexploreifandhowlevelsofcommunityactivity(for

example,aroundenvironmentalissues)impacted

onresponsestoclimatechange.Hence,we

selectedsomesuburbswithahistoryofcommunity

activityandotherswithnone.Thiswasdetermined

byworkingwithourlocalauthoritypartners.In

addition,itwasimportanttoselectsuburbsthat

hadexperiencedsomedegreeofflooding(orat

leastfloodrisk),sowecouldfullyexploreflooding

adaptationoptionsatthelocallevel.Thechosenset

ofcasestudiesisshowninFigure6.1.

Suburb type Case study Income Community activity Flooding

Innerhistoric StWerburghs,Bristol Lowerincome Active Localisedfluvial

Pre-wargardencity Summertown,OxfordMedium-higher

incomeWeak–emerging Fluvial(gardensonly)

Interwar Botley,OxfordMedium-higher

incomeActive Fluvial(onlowground)

Socialhousing Cheadle,Stockport Lowerincome ActiveLocalisedexposure

(blockedculvert)

Car Bramhall,StockportMedium-higher

incomeActive None

Medium-highdensity UpperHorfield,Bristol Lowerincome Weak-emerging None

Figure 6.1TheSNACCcasestudiesandtheselectioncriteria.

Chapter 6

36

6.2 Determining climate change projections for Bristol, Oxford and Stockport

Foreachofthecasestudies,weneededto

determinethelikelychangestotheclimate.Thiswas

requiredtoquantifytherisksandtoinformtherange

ofadaptationstrategiesstudiedineachsuburb.The

firststageinthisprocesswastodeterminetherisks

foreachcity,thentoidentifyspecificrisksassociated

witheachsuburb,giventhebaselinedataaboutthe

localconditions.

Climatechangeprojectionsforalargenumberof

weathervariablesareavailableat25kmgridsquares

fortheentireUKforthe21stCentury.Asclimate

projectionsaretemporallypresentedinclimate

periods(of30-years),theSNACCprojectchose

tofocusonthe2030sand2050sclimateperiods

tocovertheimpactofclimatechangeforthefirst

halfofthecentury.Toassessprobabilisticriskfor

eachclimateperiodfromemissionsscenarios

andmodellinguncertainty,theranges‘medium

emissions,50%probability–highemissions,90%

probability’areused(Figure6.2).

Ultimately,theinclinationistofocusonthemore

pessimisticprojectionscurrentlyavailablewhichin

theorytendtopresentgreaterrisk,i.e.projections

inthehighemissionsscenarios.Thisdecisionis

attributedtocurrentresearchwhichsuggeststhat

thecurrentglobalCO2emissionstrendisabove

andbeyondthehighemissionsscenariotrajectory

(UKCP09equivalenttotheIntergovernmentalPanel

onClimateChange’sA1FIemissionsscenario)

(Bettsetal.,2009).Furthermoregiventhecurrent

globalpoliticalandeconomictrack,itissuggested

thatthereislittletonochanceofmaintainingarise

inglobalmeansurfacetemperatureatorbelow

2°Candthattheimpactsassociatedwiththis

thresholdarenowconsideredtohavebeenseverely

underestimated(AndersonandBows,2011).

Accordingtothismethodology,thefollowingFigures

(6.3–6.5)presenttheclimatechangeprojectionsfor

theSNACCcasestudycities.

Figure 6.2

Climateprojections

andprobabilistic

rangesusedfor

modellingand

simulationoffuture

impact

37

Summer in Bristol Winter in Bristol

Summer daily temperature increase of up to 4.7°C

• Increasedriskofoverheatingathomeandinthe

neighbourhood

• HighertemperaturesandmoreexposuretoUVradia-

tionmayaffectbuildingmaterials

• UrbanHeatIslandrisk/Heatriskfromextremeheat

eventsduetoextentofhardsurfacinganddense

configurationofhousing

Summer rainfall decrease of up to 31% (Water stress)

• Reductionsinsummerprecipitationmayleadtohose-

pipebansandwaterstress

• Gardensmaybeatriskofdryingout

• Changingrainfallpatternsmayincreaseshrinkageof

claysoils:lowtomoderateriskforBristol

Winter rainfall/snow etc increase of up to 22%

• Increasedsurfacefloodingrisk

• Extremeweatherrisk-southwestgenerallysettoget

wetterandmoreextremeweathereventsemanating

fromtheAtlantic

• Increasedstorms(wind/drivingrain)

• Olderbuildingsareatgreaterriskofwinddamage-

Bristolcanexperienceseverewinddrivenrainattimes

(56.5–lessthan100litres/m2perspell).Withwinter

precipitationincrease,winterdrivingrainmayincrease

• Potentialpluvialfloodrisksfromsurfacerunoffin

theeventthatdrainagenetworkfailsinanextreme

weatherevent

Figure 6.6

Currentandfuture

climaterisksinBristol

Bristol Change in… 2030 M 50% 2030 H 90% 2050 M 50% 2050 H 90%

Summermeantemperature°C 2.0 3.4 2.8 5.2

Summermeandailymaximumtemperature°C 2.6 4.7 3.7 7.3

Wintermeantemperature°C 1.5 2.4 2.1 3.5

Summermeanprecipitation% -10 -31* -19 -43*

Wintermeanprecipitation% 9 22 15 37

SummermeansolarradiationW/m2 6 19 8 24

Oxford Change in… 2030 M 50% 2030 H 90% 2050 M 50% 2050 H 90%







Stockport Change in… 2030 M 50% 2030 H 90% 2050 M 50% 2050 H 90%







Figure 6.3

Climatechange

projectionsforBristol

(DEFRA,2011).Values

fromgridsquare1582.

Figure 6.4

Climatechange

projectionsforOxford

(DEFRA,2011).Values

fromgridsquare1547.

Figure 6.5

Climatechange

projectionsfor

Stockport(DEFRA,

2011).Valuesfrom

gridsquare1274.

*Toreflectprojectedtendencyfordriersummersandtheoverallreductionofprecipitationtheextreme

valuesfollowthevalue‘veryunlikelytobelessthan.’

6.3 The case studies, their current and future climate risks, and proposed adaptations

6.3.1 The Bristol Case Studies

InBristolthecurrentandfutureclimaterisksareas

follows(forthe2030sclimateperiod,covering2020-

2049,underhighgreenhousegasemissions).

38

Inner historic suburb: St Werburghs

StWerburghsisarelativelysmallneighbourhood

approximately1.5kmtothenortheastofBristol

citycentre.Theareaisdominatedbyresidential

development,characterizedasmedium/high

density,terracedhousingbuiltattheturnofthe

twentiethcenturyaspartoftheindustrialisation

ofthecity.Thestreetscapeisdominatedbyhard

paving,andcarsaregenerallydoubleparkedalong

thenarrowVictorianroadstructures.However,the

northernpartofSt.Werburghsaccommodateslarge

areasofallotments,woodsandothergreenspaces,

givingthisarea,knownasAshleyVale,adistinctly

‘rural’cityscape.

Existing green infrastructure

• Limitedprivateoutdoorspace

• Somelowlandcalcareousgrasslandtothenorth

ofStWerburghs,adjacenttothetworailway

linesknownasNarrowaysMillenniumGreen

NatureReserve.TheLandUsePlanhighlights

anareaofapproximately1.6hectares;however

the‘green’doesextendeastoftherailwaylines

towardsRoushamRoad.Theareaofthegreen

mergeswithadjacentlandscapeareasthatare

ofadifferentcharacter,generallybeingwooded

andinaccessibleduetoovergrowthandsteep

gradients

• LynmouthRoadAllotments

• NewRootsAllotments,BetweenBriavelsGrove

andAshleyHill

• StWerburghsCityFarm.Thisislocatedonboth

sidesofWatercressRoadandincludesastable

building,animalenclosures,greenhousesand

smallpondtothesouthoftheroad.Tothenorth

thefarmincludesaprefabricatedofficebuilding,

smallcommunityspaceused,mainlybylocal

children’s’groups,acaféandaplayarea

• AshleyValeAllotments

• Trees(savedfromnetworkrail-tonorthofrailway

line)

• StAndrewsParktothewest

• CommunitygardensatthejunctionofSt

Werburgh’sPark(road)andMinaRoad.Thepark

occupies1.4hainthecentreofthestudyarea

andismadeupofanumberofdistinctzones:

children’splayarea,gatedplayareaandanopen

Parkdominatedbymaturetrees.

Existing blue infrastructure

• Muchofthesouthwesternboundaryisdelineated

byastream,althoughasmallareaoftheparkis

locatedtothewestofthestream

• ThereisasmallstreamtributarytotheriverFrome

andanancientConduitnearJunction3,M32,at

thesouthofthearea.

Figure 6.7StWerburghscasestudyarea.ModelsreproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefortheUse

ofOrdnanceSurveyDatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncil.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.An

OrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.

39

Existing community profile

ThecommunityofStWerburghsisrenownedin

Bristolfortheircommitmenttosupportinglocal

ventures,manyofwhichhaveasustainableethos,

suchastheCityFarmandcommunityallotmentsetc.

Thisproactivefeatureofthecommunityenhanced

theinterestbytheresearchgroup,asagoodbench

markforthelimitstowhichadaptationswouldbe

acceptableand/orundertakenbyindividualsandas

acollectivegroupattheneighbourhoodscale.

Future CO2 emissions 2030

ThemeandomesticemissionsrateforSt.

Werburghsundercurrentconditionswascalculated

tobe50kgCO2/m2/yr,thiswasprojectedtodropto

46kgCO2/m2/yrintheperiod2030s.

Climate change induced risk

Risk of overheating

FutureoverheatingriskfortheStWerburghs

neighbourhoodwascalculatedtobeveryhigh.Inthe

casestudyareaitwascalculatedthatalmostallof

thepropertieswithintheneighbourhoodwouldbe

likelytooverheat.

Flooding and extreme weather

• Floodriskidentifiedfromriverflooding

(EnvironmentAgency)-ancientConduitnr.Junc3,

M32andthetributarystreamoftheFrome

• Therearealsoproblemswiththedrainageatthe

junctionofWatercressandMinaRoads,leadingto

pondingandlimitedfloodingduringheavyrainfall

• UrbanHeatIslandrisk/heatriskfromextreme

heateventsduetoextentofhardsurfacingand

denseconfigurationofhousing

• Extremeweatherrisk-southwestgenerallyset

togetwetterwithmoreextremeweatherevents

emanatingfromtheAtlantic.

Adaptations

Basedontherisksoutlinedabovethefollowing

adaptationswereproposedforStWerburghs.Also

presentedarethemitigationresponsestoprevent

theimpactoffurtherclimatechange.Thisdoesnot

equatetoanexhaustivelistofpotentialoptions,

butindicatestheoptionsmostappropriateforthe

housingandneighbourhoodtype,basedontherisks

presentedaboveandtheprofileofthecommunity.

House and Garden Neighbourhood

Mitigation of future climate

changeSummer Winter

• Photovoltaic/Solar

panels

• Growfood

• Externalwallinsulation

• Double/tripleglazing

• Roofinsulation

• Airsourceheatpump

Shading

• Externalsolarshading

• Internalshutters

• Solarfilm

• Externalshutters

Cooling&ventilation

• Lock-openwindows

• Wallgreenery

Droughtresistance

• Rainwaterharvesting

• Droughtresistant

planting

Extremeweather-windand

drivingrain

• Maintainguttering

• Water-proofwindow

seals

• Tricklevents

Flooding

• Flood-proofdoor

• Floodgate

• Airbrickcovers

• Elevateelectrical

sockets

• Floodskirting

Shading,localisedcooling

anddroughtresistance

• Streettrees

Flooding

• Flooddefenses

• Reconfigurestreet

drainage

Mitigationoffutureclimate

change

• Energyefficientstreet

lighting

Figure 6.8

Proposed

adaptationsforthe

innerhistoricsuburb:

StWerburghs

40

Medium/high density suburb: Upper Horfield

UpperHorfieldisarelativelynewlybuiltsuburb.

Thenewhousesreplacedacouncil-builtestateof

semi-detachedhousingandwerebuiltbetween

2006-2010.Thecouncilhouseswhichappearonthe

1940’smapsufferedfrom‘concretecancer’.The

abuttingareaisamixofsocialhousingstockbuilt

approximatelybetweenthe1940sand1950s.Known

locallyastheRowlingGateDevelopment,therebuilt

ShakespeareAvenueisaHomeZonearea(using

landscapingandtrafficcalmingtoshiftthepriority

awayfromthecar).Itisa45acreregeneration

projectproviding400affordablehomesand400

privatehomes.Thedevelopmenthasamixofhouse

typesincludingtownhouses,detachedandsemi-

detachedhouses.Anoutcomeofthepolicydrivefor

moreintensivedevelopmentinurbanextensionsand

inexistingbuiltupareas.Theroadsareconfigured

asa‘homezone’,withlittledelineationbetweenthe

pedestrianwalkwaysandtheroad,andnopainted

roadmarkings.Thereisalsostrategicallyplaced

plantingandavarietyofsurfacefinisheswithinthe

roadtoencouragemorecarefuldriving.


• BasedbehindtheEdenGroveMethodistChurch

inHorfield,theUpperHorfieldCommunity

Garden,volunteershavedevelopedalargespace

atEdenGroveforthegrowingoffruit,herbsand

vegetablesandaspacefornaturetoflourish

availabletomembersandvolunteerstouse.This

isslightlyoutsideofthecasestudyarea,butwas

thelocationfortheresidentworkshopssowas

includedastheresidentsconsidereditbepartof

theneighbourhood.

• Likewise,ontheoppositesideofFiltonAve,still

adjacenttothenewbuildpropertiesbutoutside

ofthespecificcasestudyarea,isarailway

embankmentwhichhassomescrubcover.This

isclassifiedascontaminatedlandsowillrestrict

optionssuchasallotments,andmayalsobe

subjecttopersonalsafetyrisks,sowouldonlybe

viableforlowmaintenanceandminimalaccess

measures.

• PoetsParkisasmallplayparkwithtwodistinct

areas,onecontainschildren’splayequipment,

andtheotherisagrassedareawithtreesplanted

aroundtheperimeter.

• Themajorityofthepropertieswithinthecase

studyareahaveprivategardensattherear,and

somehaveplantingatthefrontoftheirproperties,

therearealsoraisedbedsandtreesplantedalong

thestreetsaspartofthe‘homezone’.


• Thereisnoobviousexistingblueinfrastructure,

howeverthereisawatercapturetankburiedbelow

PoetsPark.

Figure 6.9UpperHorfieldcasestudyarea.MapsreproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefortheUseof

OrdnanceSurveyDatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncil.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.An

OrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.

41


Theareahasawell-developedcommunitytrust,

whichhasworkedinassociationwithBristolCity

Councilduringtheredevelopmentofthearea.The

mainfocusforthisistheUpperHorfieldCommunity

TrustbasedattheCommunitycentreatthetopof

EdenGrove.Themainfocusofthisgroupishousing

based,andthuspresentsagoodopportunity

toengagewithprivateownersandrenters,the

latterofwhichwouldnotbeabletoadapttheir

housessignificantly,butstillhaveastakeinthe

neighbourhoodadaptations,andsomesmallscale

houseones.Althoughthereisanactivecommunity

withinUpperHorfield,manyoftheresidentsinthe

RowlingGatedevelopmentrentthroughsocial

housinglandlords.Thisofferstheopportunityfor

someinterestingfindingstocontrasttheopinionsof

homeownersandtenants.


OverallUpperHorfieldwillberesponsibleforlessCO2

emissionsthanaverage(currentmeandomestic

emissionrateof43kgCO2/m2)becauseofthehigher

standardsofinsulationinmostofthehomes.This

willbeparticularlynoticeableinthewinterwhendaily

temperaturemayincreaseupto2.4°Cwhichwill

resultinheatingenergyusedecreasesandtherefore

resultinlessCO2emissions,thecasestudymean

ofCO2predictedtobeomittedbytheperiod2030

wascalculatedas37kgCO2/m2.Thisisapotential

positiveimpactofclimatechangeassumingthatair-

conditioningisnotadopted.


Risk of overheating

• UrbanHeatIslandrisk/heatriskfromextremeheat

eventsduetoextentofhardsurfacinganddense

configurationofhousing

• Highstandardsofinsulationduetonewbuildcould

causeoverheatingifappropriateventilationwas

notinstalled.


• Extremeweatherrisk-southwestgenerallyset

togetwetterandmoreextremeweatherevents

emanatingfromtheAtlantic.

• Potentialpluvialfloodrisksfromsurfacerunoff

intheeventthatdrainagenetworkfailsinan

extremeweatherevent

• Therearenoreportedfluvialfloodrisks

accordingtotheEnvironmentAgency,however

localresidentsreportedhistoricalpluvialflooding

inthearea.



changeSummer Winter

• Photovoltaic

panels

• Solarpanels

• Growfood



• Roofinsulation

Shading



• Solarfilm

• Shadedoutdoorspace

• Extendeaves

Cooling&ventilation

• Internalthermalmass

• Wallgreenery


• Whiteroofandwalls

•

Droughtresistance


system

• Waterbutt


drivingrain

• Externalrender

Flooding

• Flood-proofdoor

• Floodgate

• Airbrickcovers



• Streettrees

• Shadingingreenspace

• Blueinfrastructure

• Drought-resistanttrees

Flooding


drainage


change


lighting

Figure 6.10

Proposedadaptations

forthemedium/high

densitysuburb:Upper

Horfield

42

6.3.2 The Oxford Case Studies

InOxfordthecurrentandfutureclimaterisksareas

follows(forthe2030sclimateperiod,covering2020-

2049,underhighgreenhousegasemissions).

Summer in Oxford Winter in Oxford

Summer mean daily maximum temperature increase:

very unlikely to be greater than 4.4°C

• Increasedriskofoverheatingathomeandinthe

neighbourhood

• HighertemperaturesandmoreexposuretoUVradia-

tionmayaffectbuildingmaterials

Summer rainfall reduction: very unlikely to be less than

29% (Water stress)

• Reductionsinsummerprecipitationmayleadto

hosepipebansandwaterstress.

• Gardensmaybeatriskofdryingout.

• Changingrainfallpatternsmayincreaseshrinkageof

claysoils:highriskforOxford

Winter rainfall/snow etc. increase: very unlikely to be

greater than 22%


Increased storms (wind/driving rain)

• Olderbuildingsareatgreaterriskofwinddamage-

Oxfordcanexperiencemoderatewinddrivenrainat

times(33–lessthan56.5litres/m2perspell).With

winterprecipitationincrease,winterdrivingrainmay

increase.

Winter mean daily maximum temperature increase:

very unlikely to be greater than 2.6°C

Figure 6.11 CurrentandfutureclimaterisksinOxford

43

Interwar period suburb: Botley, West Oxford

Botley,inWestOxford,wasbuiltasamedium

density,homogeneousspeculativesuburb.Although

therearepartsof‘OldBotley’thatdatebacktothe

16thCentury,theareachosenforthefieldworkwas

inwhatisknownlocallyas‘NewBotley’.Itislocated

approximatelyamilewestofOxford,andthehousing

stockistypicallysemi-detachedbrickandtilebuilt

propertiesfrom1930-1939.


Theexistinggreeninfrastructureintheimmediate

casestudyareaismadeupoflargeprivatefront

andbackgardens,typicalofpropertiesbuiltinthis

era.Althoughsignificantly,mostoftheproperties

inthecasestudyareahaveturnedatleastpart

oftheirfrontlawnovertoconcreteorotherhard

standingsurfaces.Thereargardensarelargelyall

grassandtreecovered,thegardensareonaverage

approximately500m2.

AtthecentreofStPaul’screscentisalargearea

ofgrassedopenspace,whichisusedasapublic

amenitybytheinhabitantsofthesurrounding

propertiesforrecreationalpurposesi.e.toplay

sports,exercisedogsandhavepicnics.Thisareahad

beenidentifiedforpotentialallotments,butthiswas

stronglycontestedbythelocalresidents,astheyfelt

thiswouldprivatizetheirpublicamenityspace.There

isalsoasmallcopseoftreestothesouthwestofthe

areaknownasHutchcombsCopse.


Asmallstreamflowstothesouthwestofthe

areaattherearofHutchcombRoad,thisisonly

abovegroundforapproximately10-20mbefore

re-submerging.Thereisalsoasmallstreamtothe

northwestofthearea,atthetopofOwlingtonClose

whichflowsabovegroundforapproximately20m

beforere-submerging.Thelargestbodyofwater

intheareaistheHinkseyStream,atributaryofthe

Thames,whichruns500mtotheeastofthecase

studyareaonthefarsideoftheA34trunkroad.


HousinginBotleyislargelyprivatelyowned,but

thereisamarketforprivaterentalsforyoung

professionals.Theareaisrelativelyaffluent,witha

largeproportionofprofessionalworkersandyoung

families.Botleyhassomeevidenceofcommunity

activism,withthepresenceofLowCarbon

WestOxfordandtheWestOxfordCommunity

Association.


Themeandomesticemissionrateundercurrent

conditionswascalculatedtobe65kgCO2/m2/yr,

thiswasprojectedtodropto55kgCO2/m2/yrinthe

period2030s.

Figure 6.12TheBotleyCaseStudyArea.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINA

suppliedservice.

44

Ofthe362propertiesassessedwithcurrent

conditions,only39wouldbebelowaverageCO2

emissions,thisgrewto231intheperiod2030s

assumingnomechanicalcoolingwasadopted.


Risk of overheating

RiskofoverheatinginBotley(Oxfordingeneral)isthe

highestforallSNACCcasestudyneighbourhoods.

Thisisparticularlyattributedtotheexistingwarmer

climatethesoutheastexperiences.Alargemajority

ofthehomeswerecalculatedtohaveahighriskof

overheatingat50%probabilityandallhomeswere

calculatedtohaveahighriskofoverheatingat90%

probability.


Botleyhasasignificantfloodriskasidentifiedby

theEnvironmentAgency.TheriskisfromtheRiver

Thamesanditstributarystreamsinthearea.Despite

theneighbourhoodriskofflooding,theresidents

samplewasdrawnfromagroupofaddresseswith

limitedfloodrisk,duetotheirlocationatthetop

ofthehill.Forthelimitednumberofresidentsin

thesamplefromthebottomofthehill,theyhad

experiencedfluvialfloodingintheirproperties.

Inadditionhighertemperaturesandmoreexposure

toUVradiationmayaffectbuildingmaterials

Olderbuildingsareatgreaterriskofwinddamage-

Oxfordcanexperiencemoderatewinddrivenrainat

times(33–lessthan56.5litres/m2perspell).With

winterprecipitationincrease,winterdrivingrainmay

increase.

Adaptations

ProposedadaptationsforBotleyareshowninfigure

6.3.



changeSummer Winter

• Photovoltaic

panels

• Solarpanels

• Growfood

• Externalwall

insulation

• Double/triple

glazing

• Roofinsulation

• Cavitywallinsulation

Shading


• Solarfilm


• Extendeaves


Cooling&ventilation


• Wallgreenery

• Greenroof

Droughtresistance


system

• Waterbutt


drivingrain

• Externalrender

• Tricklevents

Flooding

• Replacenon-porous

driveways

• Flood-proofdoor

• Floodgate

• Airbrickcovers

• Elevateelectricalsockets



• Streettrees

• Shadingingreen

space


• Communitycoolroom

Flooding


drainage


change


lighting

• Allotments

Figure 6.13Proposedadaptationsfortheinterwarperiodsuburb:Botley,WestOxford.

45

Pre-War ‘garden city’ type suburb: Summertown, North Oxford

Summertownischaracterisedbymedium-large

semisanddetachedhomeswithlargegardens.Of

allthecasestudyareas,thiswastheonewiththe

greatestvariationinthehousingstockformand

construction.Theareaisapproximately2.5miles

northofthecentreofOxford,andhassomemixed

usewithbusinessesandshopsincloseproximity

tothehouses.Italsohasgoodtransportlinksto

thecitycentre,withboththeringroadlinkingtothe

motorwaynetworksandamainarterialroutetothe

citycentrenearby.


Althoughthereislimitedpublicopengreen

infrastructureinSunnymead,withtheexception

ofSummerfieldsSchooltothesouthofthearea,

theareaisverygreen.Thisislargelyduetomature

streetplanting,extensivegrassedfrontagesto

shopsandbusinessesandlargematureprivate

gardenstotherearoftheproperties.Atthefrontof

thepropertiesmanyofthefrontgardenshavebeen

replacedbyhardstandingtoaccommodatecars,

however,therearetreesandbushesaroundthe

perimeterofmostofthesegardens.


SunnymeadislocatedontheperimeteroftheRiver

Cherwellfloodriskzonewhichrunstotheeastof

thecasestudyarea.Therearealsoafewprivate

swimmingpoolsandpondswithintheperimeterof

someofthepropertiesinthecasestudyarea.


Theareaisveryaffluentwithalargeproportionof

retiredprofessionalslivinginlargefamilyhomes.

Althoughsomeyoungerfamilieswererepresented

inourcasestudygroup.Thereisevidenceof

communityactivismincludingthepresenceof‘Low

CarbonNorthOxford’.


Themeandomesticemissionrateinthecasestudy

areaareprojectedtodropfrom:52kgCO2/m2/yrto

43kgCO2/m2/yrfromthepresenttimetotheperiod

2030s.Incomparisontotheothertypologies,this

typehaverelativelylowcarbondioxideemissions,

thisisduetothehouseconfigurationexisting

thermalproperties.Itisprojectedintheperiod2030

thatafurther96homesinthecasestudyareawill

havecarbondioxideemissionsbelowaverage.


Risk of overheating

RiskofoverheatinginSummertown(Oxfordin

general)isalsohigherthanmostcasestudies.

Almosthalfofthehomeswerecalculatedtohave

ahighriskofoverheatingat50%probabilityand

Figure 6.14Summertowncasestudyarea.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINA

suppliedservice.

46

allhomeswerecalculatedtohaveahighriskof

overheatingat90%probability.

Thereisanincreasedriskofoverheatingathome

andintheneighbourhood.Inadditiontoareduction

inrainfallwhichwillcausewaterstressandmaylead

tohosepipebansandwaterstress.

Inoxfordthereisahighriskofthechangingrainfall

patternscausingshrinkageofclaysoilsandrelated

buildingsubsidence.


Riverfloodingwillincreaseduringthewintermonths

duetowettergroundconditionsandanincreasein

dailyrainfall.Theproximityoftheareatotheriver

Cherwellfloodzone,inadditiontothedenseurban

configurationoftheneighbourhoodandfrequency

offrontgardensturnedovertohardstandingmay

increasethelocalisedfloodriskfrombothfluvial

(river)andpluvial(surface)flooding.

HighertemperaturesandmoreexposuretoUV

radiationmayaffectbuildingmaterials.Older

buildingsareatgreaterriskofwinddamage-Oxford

canexperiencemoderatewinddrivenrainattimes

(33–lessthan56.5litres/m2perspell).Withwinter

precipitationincrease,winterdrivingrainmay

increase.

Adaptations

ProposedadaptationsforSummertownareshownin

figure6.15.



changeSummer Winter

• Photovoltaicpanels

• Solarpanels

• Growfood



• Roofinsulation


Shading


• Solarfilm


• Extendeaves

Cooling&ventilation




• Greenroof

Droughtresistance

• Underpinhouse


system


drivingrain

• Externalrender

• Tricklevents

Flooding


driveways

• Flood-proofdoor

• Floodgate

• Airbrickcovers




• Streettrees



• Communitycoolroom

• Drought-resistanttrees

Flooding


drainage

• Flooddefences


change


lighting

• Allotments

Figure 6.15 ProposedadaptationsforthePre-War‘gardencity’typesuburb:Summertown,NorthOxford

47

6.3.3 Stockport Case Studies

InStockportthecurrentandfuture climate risks are

as follows (for the 2030s climate period, covering

2020-2049, under high greenhouse gas emissions).

Summer in Stockport Winter in Stockport

Summer mean daily maximum temperature increase: very unlikely to be greater than 4.0°C

• Increasedriskofoverheatingathomeandintheneighbourhood

• HighertemperaturesandmoreexposuretoUVradiationmayaffectbuildingmaterials

Summer rainfall reduction: very unlikely to be less than 24% (Water stress)

• Reductionsinsummerprecipitationmayleadtohosepipebansandwaterstress.

• Gardensmaybeatriskofdryingout.• Changingrainfallpatternsmayincreaseshrink-ageofclaysoils:moderate/lowriskforStockport

Winter rainfall/snow etc. increase: very unlikely to be greater than 16%


Increased storms (wind/driving rain)

• Olderbuildingsareatgreaterriskofwinddam-age-Stockportcanexperiencemoderatewinddrivenrainattimes(between33and56.5litres/m2perspell).Withwinterprecipitationincrease,winterdrivingrainmayincrease.

Winter mean daily maximum temperature in-crease: very unlikely to be greater than 2.5°C

Figure 6.16 CurrentandfutureclimaterisksinStockport.

48

Social Housing suburb: Cheadle, Stockport

ThiscasestudyisintheareaofAdswoodRoad,

CheadleHulme,Cheadle,Stockport.Theproperties

inthecasestudyareaaremainlyterracedand

semi-detachedhousesbuiltinthe1950soutof

renderedbrickandtile.Thehousingisrelativelylow

density,withfrontgardensandalargereargardens.

Someofthepreviouslyownedcouncilproperties

arenowownedprivately.However,thegroupwhich

representedtheareaintheworkshopswasamix

ofhomeownersandsocialhousingtenants.The

areawasselectedduetoitsexposuretoprevious

floodinganditsrelativelylessaffluentoccupants.

Thefloodingwhichaffected11propertieswithin

thecasestudyareawascausedbyablockedculvert

whichfloodedthegroundfloorsandgardensofthe

affectedhomes.Thereisalsosomeriskofpluvial

floodingaccordingtotheenvironmentagency,

stemmingfromMickerBrooktothesouthofthesite.

Theareaisborderedbytrainlinestotheeastand

southeast,andislocatedapproximatelytwomiles

southwestofStockportcentre.


Theexistinggreeninfrastructurewithinthe

immediateneighbourhoodofthecasestudyarea

includeslargereargardenswithmaturetreesand

frontgardens,mostofwhicharepartlypavedto

accommodatecars,withtheremainderbeing

grassed.Thereisapocketparklocatedonthecorner

ofKentAvenueandLarkhilllane.Thereisalsoalarge

areaofopengrasslandattherearofDorsetAvenue,

andborderingthemainlinerailwayline.


MickerbrookwhichisatributarytotheRiverMersey,

andispronetoflooding,islocatedtothesouthwest

ofthecasestudyarea,thereisalsoaculverttothe

northwestofthearea.


TheCheadlecasestudyareawasrepresentativeofa

lessaffluentarea,withmostresidentslivingonlower

incomes.Theareaisborderedbyaffluentareasto

thenorthandwest,andlessaffluentareastothe

southandeast.


Theexistingmeandomesticemissionrateforthe

Cheadleneighbourhoodwas56kgCO2/m2/yrthis

wasprojectedtofallto48kgCO2/m2/yrbytheperiod

2030.

Figure 6.17TheCheadlecasestudyarea.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINA

suppliedservice.

49


Risk of overheating

RiskofoverheatinginCheadle(Stockportingeneral)

isthelowestofallSNACCcasestudies.Alittleover

halfofthehomeswerecalculatedtohaveahighrisk

ofoverheatingat90%probabilityandnoneat50%

probability.


Stockportispredictedtoexperienceconsiderable

increasesinwinterprecipitation(upto16%).Thiswill

causefluvialfloodrisk.TheCheadlecasestudyarea

isalreadylocatedontheEnvironmentAgencyflood

riskmap,andthereforetheriskoffloodingfrom

MickerBrookispredictedtoincrease.

Adaptations

ProposedadaptationsforStockportareshownin

figure6.18.



changeSummer Winter

• Photovoltaic

panels

• Solarpanels

• Growfood

• Externalwall

insulation

• Double/triple

glazing

• Roofinsulation


Shading

• Wallgreenery

• Greenroof

• Shadedoutdoor

space

• Externalsolar

shading


• Solarfilm

• Extendeaves

Cooling&ventilation

• Lock-open

windows

• Internalthermal

mass


Droughtresistance

• Underpinhouse

• Waterbutt


system


drivingrain

• Externalrender

• Tricklevents

Flooding

• Flood-proofdoor

• Floodgate


driveways

• Airbrickcovers


• Replaceinternalflooring



• Streettrees


• Shadingingreen

space

• Communitycool

room

Flooding


drainage

• Flooddefences


change


lighting

• Allotments

Figure 6.18

Proposedadaptations

fortheSocialHousing

suburb:Cheadle,

Stockport

50

Car Suburb: Bramhall, Stockport

Bramhalltypifiedthelowdensity,car-oriented,

developer-ledneighbourhoodwithsomeculs-de-

sac.Builtinthelate1970s,thecasestudyareais

knownlocallyas‘LittleAustralia’,duetothestreets

beingnamedafterAustraliancities.Thestreets

arewidewithstreettrees,andthebuildingsand

surroundingareasarerelativelylowdensity.The

boundaryofthecasestudyareaisborderedby

arailwaylinelinkingtoManchesterPiccadillyvia

Stockporttothenorthandsewageworkstothe

southeast.Thesurroundingstreetshadproperties

builtinthepre-warperiodintheartsandcrafts

style.Alargerecreationgroundislocatedonthe

westernboundaryoftheareawithfootballpitches

andachildren’splaypark,alargecommunityhall

(BramhallVillageClub),wasalsolocatedatthispoint.

Bramhallitselfliesapproximatelythreemilessouth

westofStockportandisanaffluentareapopularwith

olderfamiliesandretiredpeoplelivinginlargefamily

homes.


Thecasestudyareahadsignificantamountsof

greencoveragebothwithintheboundariesofthe

propertiesintheformofmaturegardens,andalong

theroadwithstreettrees.Tothenortheastofthe

arealiesBramhallgolfcourse,withseveralacresof

greens,andonthewesternboundaryofthearea

istherecreationgroundwithtwolargefootball

pitchesandtreesaroundthechildren’splayground

perimeter.


Thereareseveralstreamsandpondsonthe

farmlandtothesoutheastofthearea.Thereisalso

reportedlysomepondingundertheproperties,

andconsequentlysomeofthemarealreadybuilt

onfloatingconcretefoundations.Thereisalsoa

minorstreamtothenorthandnortheastofthe

casearea,however,therailwaylineiselevatedona

bankbetweenthestreamandthehousesproviding

protectionagainstflooding.


Bramhallishometomainlywealthyworking

familieswithmortgages.Thesearemostlyaffluent

families,withschoolagechildren,enjoyingagood

lifestyle.Employmentislargelyinseniormanagerial

andprofessionaloccupations,andmanyofthe

householdsinthistypehavebothadultsworking.Car

ownershipishigh,withtwoormorecarscommon.

Withinthecasestudyarea,theworkshopwas

attendedbyresidentswhofittedthisdescription

aswellasalargeproportionofretiredprofessionals

withgrownupfamilies.Theareaisknowntohavea

neighbourhoodwatchgroupbuttherearefewother

communitygroups,unliketheareasfoundinBristol

andOxford.

Figure 6.19Bramhallcasestudyarea(Source:StockportMetropolitanBoroughCouncil:OSMastermap)

Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.

51


Theexistingmeandomesticemissionrateinthe

BramhallcasestudyforCO2releasewas75kgCO

2/

m2/yrthiswasprojectedtofallto62kgCO2/m2/yr

bytheperiod2030.Despitethedrop,whichcanbe

attributedtoareductioninspaceheatingdemand

by2030s,thehousingtype(andlocation)performed

worsethanallothertypes.


Risk of overheating

RiskofoverheatinginBramhall(Stockportingeneral)

islowerthanmostcasestudyneighbourhoods.

Roughlythree-quartersofthehomeswere

calculatedtohaveahighriskofoverheatingat90%.

InBramhalltheaveragesummermaximum

temperatureintheperiod2030sisprojectedto

increaseby2.5°C.Inadditiontothistherewillbe

increasedincidenceofheatwaveswhichwillresultin

ahighlikelihoodofpropertiesandneighbourhoods

overheating:(12%).Thereisalsopredictedtobean

increaseinsolarradiationwithpeaksinAugustwhich

willimpactuponthebuiltfabricoftheproperties.


Theriskoffluvialfloodingisnotsignificantinthis

areaofBramhall.However,asaresultofincreased

winterprecipitationofupto15%,whichwillinpart

fallindeluges,thereisaprobabilityofsomepluvial

flooding.Thiswillbeexacerbatedbytheprevalence

ofhardpavedfrontgardens,andtheexisting

saturationofthegroundinparts,duetohighwater

table.Theprojectedsummerdecreaseinrainfallwill

causedroughtconditionswhichwillresultinwater

stress.

Adaptations

ProposedadaptationsforBramhallareshownin

figure6.20.



changeSummer Winter

• Photovoltaic

panels

• Solarpanels

• Growfood



• Roofinsulation

Shading



• Solarfilm


• Extendeaves

Cooling&ventilation



• Wallgreenery

• Greenroof

• Lock-open

windows

Droughtresistance


system

• Waterbutt


drivingrain

• Externalrender

• Re-point

brickwork

• Woodprotectors

• Tricklevents

• Maintainguttering

Flooding


driveways



• Streettrees



• Communitycool

room

Flooding


drainage


change


lighting

• Allotments

Figure 6.20

Proposedadaptations

fortheCarSuburb:

Bramhall,Stockport

53

The potential for overheating in suburbs and effective adaptation packages

Thischapterpresentstheoverheatingpotential

andtheeffectiveadaptationoptionsandpackages

forthesixcasestudyneighbourhoods.Wechose

tofocusonoverheatinggiventhepolicyinterest,

thecurrentneedforevidence,andthepotential

unintendedconsequencesthatsomecurrent

andfuturepolicymeasurescouldhaveonfuture

overheatinginEnglishhomes.Giventhecurrent

evidencethatthefutureclimateisprojectedto

warm,understandingtheimplicationsthismay

haveonthethermalconditionsinhomesand

neighbourhoodsisessentialtomeettheUK

government’scarbonreductiongoals,toretaina

standardofthermalcomfortandtoreducetherisk

tolivesthatheatwaveshavehistoricallyimposed.

Beforeadaptationoptionsaremodelledforthe

individualneighbourhoods,theoverheatingpotential

ofeachneighbourhoodisassessedandvisualised.

TheDECoRuM-Adaptsimulationindicatesthat

thereareanumberofhomecharacteristicindicators

thatleadtooverheatingandcansometimesbea

complexarrangementofcharacteristicsforeach

home.Theoverarchingconcepttounderstanding

theproblemofoverheatingindwellings,however,

canbesummedupasmanagementofgains(internal

andsolar)andheattransfer.Thecharacteristicsthat

havebeenfoundtocontributetoahigherlikelihood

ofoverheatingare:

Built form:

• Typeofhome:e.g.,amid-terracehomewill

overheatbeforeanendofterrace(assumingall

othercharacteristicsareassimilaraspossible

betweenthetwo)

• Numberofstories:homeswithfewerstoriestend

tooverheatbeforethosewithmore,particularly

flats

• Overallform:beinginacompactform(asopposed

tohavingagreaterareaofexposedsides)

• Extentofglazing:havingagreaterglazingareavs.

lessglazingarea(solargainwasfoundtohavea

significantimpactoninternalheatgain)

• Locationofglazing:thepresenceofskylights(can

haveagreateroverheatingpotentialthanlarger

non-roofglazedareas)

Age dependent characteristics and management

of gains:

• Olderhomesareassumedtohavelessorno

insulationandorcontrolsonequipmentsuchas

thehotwatertankandprimarypipeworkleadingto

highinternalgainsandoverheatingasaresult.

• Newerhomesareassumedtohavelowerair

permeabilityandhigherinsulationstandardson

boththesystemsandfabricleadingtooverheating

frombothinternalandsolargains.According

tothethermalsimulationofinsulationvalues

(understoodassimplyu-values),DECoRuM-Adapt

projectsoverheatingasaresultofhigherfabric

insulation.

• Orientation:eastandwestfacinghomesarefound

toovereattoagreaterdegreethanhomesthat

aresouthornorthfacing.

• Fromaneighbourhoodperspective,homeson

exposedstreets(lackoffoliagecover)havea

higherlikelihoodofoverheating.

From these findings the development of adaptation

options follows three key principles:

• Reduceexternaltemperaturesbymanagingthe

microclimate(non-fabricchanges)

• Designtoexcludeorminimisetheeffectofdirect

orindirectsolarradiationintothehome(fabric

changes)

• Limitorcontrolheatwithinthebuilding(e.g.

reducedinternalgainsormanageheatwithmass),

canincludeventilation.

Thethermaladaptationoptionswhichweretested

fortheneighbourhoodsinDECoRuM-Adaptare

listedinFigure7.1.Someadaptationoptionswere

presentedtothestakeholdersinvariousforms,e.g.

externalshadingwaspresentedaslouvers,awnings,

extendedeaves,treecover,etc.Furtheradaptation

optionsincludinghighalbedoexternalwallandroof

surfacesandadditionofthermalmassweretestedin

individualdetailedhomesimulations.

Chapter 7

54

Package 1: Fabric (deals with solar gain and thermal

conductivity)Purpose A M

Wallinsulation(CavitywallfilledtowholewallU-valueof

0.52W/m2K,Solidwallexternallyinsulatedto0.3W/m2K)

(EST,2012)

ImprovedU-values A M

Roofinsulation(U-value0.2–0.16W/m2K)(EST,2012) ImprovedU-values A M

Floorinsulation(U-value0.25W/m2K)(EST,2012) ImprovedU-values A M

Externalshadingofglazing(user-controlled–notmod-

elledtobeinplaceduringheatingseason)Reducesolargainsinthehome A

Glazingupgrade(low-esoftcoatdoubleglazing–U-

value1.8W/m2K,Solartransmittance50%)inplaceof

allexistingsingleglazingexceptnorthfacing(includes

draughtsealing)

ImprovedU-valuesandreductionofsolar

gainsinthehomeA M

Low-esolarfilm(Solartransmittance50%overexisting

doubleglazing,allbutnorthfacing)Reducesolargainsinthehome A

Package 2: Fabric + Energy efficiency (deals with internal heat gain)

Package1+thefollowing:

Boilerupgrade Reduceenergyuse M

Hotwatertankinsulation(80mmjacket) Reduceenergyuseandinternalgains A M

Improvedheatingcontrols:Hotwatertanktemperature

controlandroomthermostatsReduceenergyuseandinternalgains A M

Primarypipeworkinsulation Reduceenergyuseandinternalgains A M

Energyefficientlighting(LED) Reduceenergyuseandinternalgains A M

Package 3: Fabric + Energy efficiency + Solar energy systems (adaptation to increased solar irradiation)

Package1+Package2+thefollowing:

SolarPhotovoltaic Reduceenergyuse M

Solarhotwater(evacuatedtube) Reduceenergyuse M

Figure 7.1Adaptationoptionsgroupedintocompoundingpackages

Note:allpackagesincludeamoderatelevelofnaturalventilationasitisassumedthatthisuserbehaviourisalreadyinwide

use.Thefarrightcolumnslabelled‘A’and‘M’indicatetheoption’sinfluenceoveradaptationormitigationorboth.Though

mitigationisconsideredanadaptation,theseindicatorsareusedasshorthand,i.e.mitigationonlyreducesenergyuseand

adaptationonlyreducesoverheatingpotential.

Figure7.2showstheCO2reductionspercasestudy

neighbourhoodasanimpactof1)climatechangeat

2050highemissions,90%probabilityand2)afterthe

adaptationpackageshavebeenappliedat2050high

emissions.90%probability.

55

Thefollowingsubsectionsdividetheoverheating

andadaptationfindingsfortheneighbourhoodsper

city.AsDECoRuM-Adaptsimulatesresultsusing

monthlydata,theuseornon-useofventilation

mustbesimulatedseparately.Therefore,theinitial

overheatingmapsindicateoverheatingina‘sealed’

state;theairpermeabilityofthehomeprovides

theonlynaturalairflowinandoutofthehome.

Thisisconsideredusefulasanexamplewherethe

occupantisawayfromthehomeduringthedayand

arrivestoanoverheatedhomethathasnotbeen

ventilated.Naturalventilationisappliedalongside,

asanindividualmeasure,andwiththeadaptation

packages.Asexplainedinsection6.1,theprojection

withthegreatestriskisofinterestasadaptations

willbeeffectiveinprojectionswithlessrisk.Forthis

reasontheadaptationpackagesareappliedtothe

neighbourhoodsduringthe2050sclimateperiodat

highemissions,90%probability.

7.1 Bristol

Theprobabilisticoverheatingresultsofthecase

studyneighbourhoodsofBristol,St.Werburghsand

UpperHorfieldareshowninfigures7.3and7.4

Figure 7.2MeanneighbourhoodCO2emissionschangeasanimpactofclimatechangeandadaptations

56

Figure 7.3ClimatechangeimpactasoverheatingpotentialforSt.Werburghsat2030sand2050sclimateperiods,

mediumtohighemissions,50%to90%probabilities(source:Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Models

reproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefortheUseofOrdnanceSurveyDatabetweenUWE,Bristoland

BristolCityCouncil.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.

Figure 7.4 ClimatechangeimpactasoverheatingpotentialforUpperHorfieldat2030sand2050sclimateperiods,

mediumtohighemissions,50%to90%probabilities(source:Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Models

reproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefortheUseofOrdnanceSurveyDatabetweenUWE,Bristoland

BristolCityCouncil.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.

57

Figure 7.5 Adaptationpackageresultsfor2050s,highemissions,90%probabilityinSt.Werburghs.Note:packages2and

3donotdifferinoverheatingreductionaspackage3isdefinedbytheinclusionofsolarenergysystemsalone(source:

Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).ModelsreproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefor

theUseofOrdnanceSurveyDatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncil.Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright

2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.

Figure 7.6 Adaptationpackageresultsfor2050s,highemissions,90%probabilityinUpperHorfield.Note:packages2and


Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).ModelsreproducedunderthetermsoftheContractor’sLicencefor

theUseofOrdnanceSurveyDatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncilMap©CrownCopyright/databaseright

2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.

AsthemapsinFigures7.3and7.4indicatethere

isa71-100%highlikelihoodofoverheatingforSt.

Werburghsanda6-100%highlikelihoodforUpper

Horfieldduringthe2050sclimateperiod.Greater

overheatingpotentialinSt.Werburghscanbe

attributedtothecombinationofgreatercompact

urbanform(withlessexposedexternalwallarea),

greaterexposuretosolarradiation(lesstreecover)

andhigherinternalheatgains.St.Werburghsalso

hasagreaternumberofhomeswithfullyexposed

skylights.Toadaptthehomesforbothmitigation

offurtherclimatechangeandmitigationof

overheating,thepackagesoutlinedinFigure7.1

areappliedtotheneighbourhoods.Theresultsare

showninFigures7.5and7.6.

Theadaptationpackagesaresuccessfulinmitigating

potentialoverheatingintheneighbourhoods.The

homesinSt.Werburghsthatremainoverheated

aftertheapplicationofpackage2&3allhave

convertedloftswithmultiplelargeskylights.These

typesofwindowscanbedifficulttoshadeandcause

thehometobevulnerabletosolargain.Thehomes

thatremainoverheatedinUpperHorfieldonthe

otherhandaremostnoticeablytheflatsandother

singlestorydwellingswithlesseffectiveventilation

capacity.

58

7.2 Oxford


studyneighbourhoodsofOxford,Botleyand

SummertownareshowninFigures7.7and7.8.

Figure 7.7 ClimatechangeimpactasoverheatingpotentialforBotleyat2030sand2050sclimateperiods,mediumtohigh

emissions,50%to90%probabilities(source:Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Map©CrownCopyright/

databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.

Figure 7.8 ClimatechangeimpactasoverheatingpotentialforSummertownat2030sand2050sclimateperiods,medium

tohighemissions,50%to90%probabilities(source:Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Map©Crown

Copyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINAsuppliedservice.

59

AsthemapsinFigures7.7and7.8indicatethereis

a98-100%highlikelihoodofoverheatingforBotley

andan88-100%highlikelihoodforSummertown

duringthe2050sclimateperiod.Theselikelihoods

arehigherthanthatofBristolduetothehigher

meansummertemperatures(currentandfuture).

GreateroverheatingpotentialinBotleycanbe

attributedtothehomeshavingalargerwindowto

exposedwallratio.Thisrelationshipinolderhomes

indicatesmorepotentialforsolargaintoenterthe

homeascomparedtothehome’soverallwallarea

(nottransferringdirectsolargainintothehome).

Summertownasaneighbourhoodrepresentsthe

mostdiverseofthecasestudyneighbourhoodsin

termsofageandbuiltformvariation.Thisvariation

canclearlybeseenintheoverheatingpotential

duringthe2030smediumemissions,50%percentile

(Figure7.8)wherethereishigherproportionof

homesgroupedtogetherintheupperrightsideof

theimage.Thesehomeshaveahighlikelihoodof

overheatingandareallterracedhousingwhereas

muchoftherestoftheneighbourhoodaredetached

andsemi-detached.Toadaptthehomesforboth

mitigationoffurtherclimatechangeandmitigation

ofoverheating,thepackagesoutlinedinFigure7.1



Figure 7.9 Adaptationpackageresultsfor2050s,highemissions,90%probabilityinBotley.Note:packages2and3donot

differinoverheatingreductionaspackage3isdefinedbytheinclusionofsolarenergysystemsalone(source:Digimap,

2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/EDINA

suppliedservice.

Figure 7.10 Adaptationpackageresultsfor2050s,highemissions,90%probabilityinSummertown.Note:packages2and


Digimap,2012;TheDECoRuM-Adaptmodel,2012).Map©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnanceSurvey/

EDINAsuppliedservice.

Theadaptationpackagesareunsuccessful

inmitigatingpotentialoverheatinginthe

neighbourhoods.Itisimportanttonotehowever

thatan‘extremecase’projectionisbeingsimulated.

Theriskis‘veryunlikelytobegreaterthan’the

resultsbeingpresented,howeveradditionaladaptive

solutionsmaybenecessary.Thismightinclude

activecoolingwithanair-sourceheatpumpdriven

byphotovoltaicpanels.Whenthesimulationis

expandedtoviewtheprobabilisticrangeresults

forthe2050sclimateperiodthereisevidencethat

theadaptationpackageswillprovideoverheating

mitigationfortheneighbourhoodsinOxfordunder

lessextremeconditions(Figure7.11).

60

7.3 Stockport


studyneighbourhoodsofStockport,Bramhalland

CheadleareshowninFigures7.12and7.13.

Figure 7.12 ClimatechangeimpactasoverheatingpotentialforBramhallat2030sand2050sclimateperiods,medium



Oxford 2050s Baseline Package 1 Package 2 & 3

Medium High Medium High Medium High

Probability 50% 90% 50% 90% 50% 90% 50% 90% 50% 90% 50% 90%

Botley 98% 100% 99% 100% 3% 19% 3% 100% 0% 2% 0% 100%

Summertown 88% 100% 98% 100% 0% 5% 1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 100%

Figure 7.11 Probabilisticadaptationoverheatingresultsforthe2050sinOxford

61

Figure 7.13 ClimatechangeimpactasoverheatingpotentialforCheadleat2030sand2050sclimateperiods,medium



Asthemapsinfigure7.12and7.13indicatethereis

a1-100%highlikelihoodofoverheatingforBramhall

anda0-100%highlikelihoodforCheadleduringthe

2050sclimateperiod.Toadaptthehomesforboth

mitigationoffurtherclimatechangeandmitigation

ofoverheating,thepackagesoutlinedinFigure7.1



Figure 7.14 Adaptationpackageresultsfor2050s,highemissions,90%probabilityinBramhall.Note:packages2and3do

notdifferinoverheatingreductionaspackage3isdefinedbytheinclusionofsolarenergysystemsalone(source:Digimap,


suppliedservice.

62

Figure 7.15 Adaptationpackageresultsfor2050s,highemissions,90%probabilityinCheadle.Note:packages2and3do

notdifferinoverheatingreductionaspackage3isdefinedbytheinclusionofsolarenergysystemsalone(source:Digimap,


suppliedservice.

Theadaptationpackagesareextremelysuccessful

inmitigatingpotentialoverheatinginthe

neighbourhoods.Infact,beforeanyadaptation

packagesareapplied,simplyhavingasafeand

effectiveventilationstrategyforthehomesin

Stockportappearstomitigatetheoverheating

probleminamajorityofthehomesbythe2050s.

Figure7.16liststheimpactofthepackageswith

andwithoutventilation.Therelativelylowerclimate

changeimpactinStockportprovidesamajorityof

thehomesintheneighbourhoodswiththeunique

advantageofadaptingwithoutdaytimeventilation.

Thiscanofcoursechangeifairtightnessisincreased.

7.4 Conclusion

Thetestingphaseoftheprojecthasindicatedthat

thereareanumberofeffectiveadaptationoptions.

Themosttechnicallyeffectiveadaptiveapproachis

toreducesolarradiationintothehomeandontothe

fabricofthehome.Thiscanbedoneinanumberof

waysondifferentscales,e.g.plantingoftreesata

neighbourhoodscaletoinstallingexternalshading

devicesonanindividualhomebasis.

Asisseenthroughtheeffectivepackagingofboth,

adaptationandmitigationofclimatechangein

suburbanhomesshouldbeconsideredtogether

asmanymeasurestoaddresstheseconcernsare

mutuallybeneficial.AlthoughtheUKisprojected

toremainaheatingdominatedclimate,wherein

improvingthethermalpropertiesofbuildingfabric

willbeessential,otheradaptivemeasurestoreduce

theriskoffutureoverheatingonahouselevelare

urgentlyneeded.Thereforeafabric-basedfuture

proofingapproachcomprisingmitigationand

adaptationmeasures(asdemonstratedabove

forexample)isrecommendedforlarge-scale

refurbishmentofexistinghousing.

Stockport 2050

High 90%Baseline Package 1 Package 2 & 3

Sealed Ventilated Sealed Ventilated Sealed Ventilated

Bramhall 100% 11% 100% 0% 2% 0%

Cheadle 100% 3% 95% 0% 4% 0%

Figure 7.16 Probabilisticadaptationoverheatingresultsforthe2050sinStockport

63

Internalgainsaside,newerhomes,i.e.dwellings

builttomeetimprovedfabricregulations,are

moresensitivetopotentialoverheatingthanolder

homes.Thisislikelytobethegreatestconflictas

theUKstrivestomeetGovernmentCO2targets

byretrofittingandbuildingnewhomesthatare

only,atbest,climaticallyresponsivetothecurrent

climate.AsthecurrentUKBuildingRegulationsand

retrofittingprogrammesaremainlyconcernedwith

heatretention(andCO2reduction),itisessential

thatfuturerevisionstoBuildingRegulationsand

otherpolicymeasurestackletherisksof,and

potentialforadaptingto,climatechangedriven

overheatingtoensureacomfortableenvironment

foroccupants.

65

Residents responses to adapting their suburbs

8.1 Introduction

ThisChapterpresentsthefindingsfromthe

residents’workshopsinthesixcasestudysuburbs.

Attheworkshopswediscussed:

• residents’experiencesofdifferentweatherevents

(heatwaves,floods,storms);

• theirattitudestowardsclimatechange;

• theirfamiliaritywiththerangeofadaptation

measuresthatcouldbeeffectiveintheir

neighbourhood(atthehome,gardenand

neighbourhoodscales);

• whethertheyhave(orwouldconsider)

implementingthesemeasurestogetherwiththeir

reasonsfordoingso,and;

• iftheywouldnotconsiderimplementingthe

measures,thenwhatarethekeybarriersto

adoptingthemandwhatincentivesmightenhance

theirattractiveness.

Thefindingsarepresentedbelow.

8.2 How do residents perceive climate change and its impacts?

Someresidentsdisputedtheclimatechange

projectionsbasedonthesciencebehindthe

projectionsand/ortheirpersonalexperienceof

weatherovertheirlifetime.Ingeneralthethreats

fromstormierwintersandhotterdriersummers

didnotseemtoraisemuchconcernforresidents.

Theyconsideredoverheatingalow-urgency,

non-immediatethreatthatcouldbeaddressed

reactivelywhenitbecameproblematic.Flooding

wasgenerallynotconsideredathreat(eveninareas

whichhadexperiencednearbyflooding).Drought

wasconsideredamoderatethreatbecausemost

residentshadexperiencedhose-pipebans.There

wasageneralwillingnessamongstresidentstocope

withweatherdiscomfortatcertaintimesofyear.

InStockportresidentssimplydidnotseeadaptation

asanissueofrelevancebecauseoftheirexisting

weatherexperiences(theywelcomedhotter

weatherinthesummer,andarealreadyusedtowet

winters).InBristolandOxfordtherewasamoderate

levelofinterestinmeasurestomitigatesummer

temperatures(becausetheyalreadyexperience

somelevelofdiscomfortinsummertime),however

themostcommonviewwasthattheywouldadopt

someofthesemeasuresonlywhentheweather

becameuncomfortableandnotinanticipationof

hottersummers.Evenwhenresidentswereshown

theresultsoftheDECoRuMmodellingwhich

revealedthepotentialextentofoverheatingat

thelevelofindividualhomes,theywerenotunduly

concerned.

Climate change scepticism

Areyousayingit’sgettingwarmernowthanwhatitwas30oddyears

ago?BecausewhenIwasakiddiewhenIwasonschoolsummer

holidaysIcouldn’twalkonthepavements…andyetyoucanherenow

inthesummer.

Wellinthefuturethatisdebatableastowhatmighthappen…there

isatotallyalternatescenariowhichsayswewillgomuchcolderasa

resultofclimatechange.

Heat not seen as a serious problem

Ithinkitwouldn’tberelevantasatthemomentthereisn’treallya

greatneedforitbecausewehaven’tgothightemperatures.

Wehavetheheatingoninthesummer!

Heat welcomed by some in Stockport

Ifinditverydifficulttoperceivewhatthismightactuallybelike,

becauseasfarasIamconcernedatthemoment,bringiton!

Heat seen as a problem by some residents in Bristol and Oxford

Weneedtoputgreenbackintothedistrict,wereallydobecausethe

lastcoupleofyearsifyouwalkeddownFiltonAveonahotdayitislike

walkingthroughtheGobiDesert,itisboiling.

Willingness to cope with occasional heat

That’slifeisn’tit?Youhavegotafewdaysoftheyearwhenit’sgoing

tobeextremelyhot,enjoythemwhileyoucanbecausetherestof

thetimeit’sgoingtobecold.

Flooding not considered a serious risk

There’squiteafewyearsyouknowsincewehadafloodupheresoit

seemsabitoverthetopforourhouses(floodpreventionmeasures)

Climate impacts a future issue only

Isupposeoverafiftyyearspanitislikelythatwindowswhichare

currentlyinstalledwillneedreplacing,andIsupposeatthatpoint

thesekindofthingswouldbecomingin.

IthinklikemostotherpeopleIwouldreact.IfthereisaneedforitI

woulddoit,iftherewasn’taneedforitatthetimeIwouldn’tdoit.

Figure 8.1 Quotationsaboutclimatechangebyresidents

Chapter 8

66

8.3 Residential property adaptation

8.3.1 What are residents’ attitudes to mitigation

options?

Residentswerepresentedwithaselectionof

mitigationmeasuresappropriatefortheirproperty

typeandaskedwhethertheywerelikelyorunlikely

toimplementanyofthesemeasuresintheirhome

andgarden(Figure8.2).Themostlikelyadaptations

aredouble/tripleglazing,roofinsulationandfood

growing.Airsourceheatpumps,externalwall

insulationandsolarpanelsaremuchlesslikely

tobeconsideredbyresidents.Someresidents

havealreadyimplementedmitigationmeasures

becauseofgrantsandsubsidies,hobbies(e.g.

gardening),routineupgrades(e.g.newwindows)

andenvironmentalconcerns(e.g.photovoltaics).

Cost-savingsandenvironmentalconcernsare

thekeydriversforresidentswantingtoinstall

mitigationmeasures.Reasonsfornotimplementing

measureswerecost,paybackperiod,maintenance,

andpotentialreductioninhousevalue.Resident

supportforsomeofthemitigationmeasuresvaries

accordingtocasestudyarea.Therewaslesssupport

forphotovoltaicsandsolarpanelsinStockport

comparedtothesoutherncitiesofBristoland

Oxford.

Suburb typology Inner historicPre-war

Garden Inter-war Social housing Car Medium-high

Case study St WerburghsSummertown,

Oxford

Botley

Oxford

Cheadle

Stockport

Bramhall

Stockport

Horfield

Bristol

Photovoltaicpanels 4 - 7 7 - 4

Solarpanels - - 7 7 - -

Growfood 4 4 4 - 4 4

Externalwallinsulation 7 - 7 - 7 7

Double/tripleglazing 4 7 4 4 4 4

Roofinsulation 4 4 4 4 4 4

Cavitywallinsulation 4 - 4 -

Airsourceheatpump 7

Likelihoodofimplementation:Likely4 Mixed- Unlikely7

Shadedareas:adaptationnottestedinthatcasestudy

Figure 8.2 Residents’likelihoodofimplementingmitigationmeasuresbycasestudysuburb

67

whichhaveashading/coolingfunction(wallgreenery,

lock-openwindows,externalshading,shading

outdoorspace).Theleastlikelyadaptationsrelateto

internalthermalmass,greenroofsandunderpinning

homes.Adaptationswouldbemadeforaesthetic,

enjoymentreasons,andtosaverainwater.Themain

reasonfornotimplementingsummeradaptation

measureswasthestrongopinionthattheysimply

werenotneeded.

8.3.2 What are residents’ attitudes to ‘summer’

adaptation options?

Residentswerepresentedwithaselectionof

summeradaptationmeasuresappropriatefortheir

propertytypeandaskedwhethertheywerelikelyor

unlikelytoimplementanyofthesemeasuresintheir

homeandgarden(Figure8.3).Asheatisnotseen

asaseriousproblem,adaptationsareeitherseenas

unnecessary(particularlyinthenorthwhereclimate

changeiswelcomed)orbehaviouraladaptations

areseenassufficient.Droughtandwaterprudence

isbetterunderstoodsowaterbuttsareparticularly

favoured.Themostlikelyadaptationsaresimple

watersavingmeasures(waterbutts)andmeasures




Oxford

Botley

Oxford

Cheadle

Stockport

Bramhall

Stockport

Horfield

Bristol

Externalsolarshading 7 - - 7 7 4

Internalshutters 7 7 - 7 -

Externalshutters 7

Solarfilm 4 - 7 4 7 4

Wallgreenery 4 4 - 7

Greenroof 7 7 - 7 7 -

Shadedoutdoorspace 7 4 4 4 - -

Waterbutt 4 4 4 4 4

Rainwaterharvesting

system4 - 7 7 7 7

Internalthermalmass 7 - 7 -

Whiteroofandwalls 4 7 7 7

Extendeaves 7 7 7

Lock-openwindows 4 4 4 4 4

Underpinhouse 7 7 7

Drought-resistant

planting4



Figure 8.3 Residents’likelihoodofimplementing‘summer’adaptationmeasuresbycasestudysuburb

68

measuressuchastricklevents,airbrickcoversand

maintainingguttering.Thereisalackofawareness

amongresidentsofwinteradaptationoptions

andconfusionoverthebenefitsofprotectingan

individualhomefromfloodingincontrasttorelying

eitheroninsuranceattachedtothepropertyand/or

localauthorityflooddefences.

8.3.3 What are residents’ attitudes to ‘winter’

adaptation options?

Residentswerepresentedwithaselectionofwinter

adaptationmeasuresappropriatefortheirproperty

typeandaskedwhethertheywerelikelyorunlikelyto

implementanyofthesemeasuresintheirhomeand

garden(Figure8.4).Thereislesssupportforthese

measuresthanmitigationandsummeradaptations.

Eventhosewhohaveexperiencedflooding(either

directlyornearby)arenotverylikelytoimplement

floodingadaptations,althoughasmallnumberwould

considerflood-gatesandflood-doors.Thereisa

moderatelevelofinterestinreplacingnon-porous

drives.Themostlikelyadaptationsaresimple




Oxford

Botley

Oxford

Cheadle

Stockport

Bramhall

Stockport

Horfield

Bristol

Externalrender 4 - 7 7 7

Re-pointingbrickwork - 4

Replacenon-porous

driveways4 4 7 -

Woodprotectors 4

Tricklevents 4 - 4 7 7

Maintainguttering 4

Flood-proofdoor 7 7 7 7 7

Floodgate 7 7 7 - 7

Airbrickcovers 7 4 7 4

Elevateelectrical

sockets7 7 7 7

Replaceinternal

flooring-

Floodskirting 7

Water-proofwindow

seals7



Figure 8.4 Residents’likelihoodofimplementing‘winter’adaptationmeasuresbycasestudysuburb

69

8.3.4 What are the factors that determine whether

residents would or would not adopt an adaptation

measure?

Thelikelihoodofresidentsadoptingadaptation

measuresisinfluencedbyanumberoffactors

includingtheinitialcost,convenienceandvisual

appearanceofmeasuresandthelongerterm

paybackperiodandotherlifestyleandenvironmental

benefits.Adaptationoptionsthatappealthemost

toresidentsarethosethatoffermultiplebenefits

(e.g.arecost-saving,visuallyattractiveandimprove

climatecomfort).Measuresthatproducedadditional

benefitswerefavouredsuchasdouble/tripleglazing

(noisereduction),growingfood(enjoyable/hobby)

andwallgreenery(visuallyattractive).Solarfilm

wasstronglysupportedintheBristolcasestudies

becauseitischeap,canbefittedquicklybyDIY

(andremovedifdesired),anddoesnotsignificantly

changethevisualappearanceofaproperty.People

weremorelikelytoadoptameasure(orhadalready

doneso)ifitwaslikelytocoincidewithotherhome

renovations,reducingthecostsandminimising

disruptionfrombuildingworks.

Reasonsfornotbeingsupportiveofadaptation

measuresincludedpotentialdamagetoproperty

(wallgreenery),inappropriatehousingorientation

(solarpanelsneedingsouthfacingroofs),lacking

sunlitgardenspace(growingfood),notplanning

tostayintheirhomelong-term(tomakeoutlay

costsworthwhile)andnothavingthecapacityto

implementmeasuresneedingapprovalfromHousing

Associationormanagementboard(solarpanels)or

waterutilitycompanies(rainwaterharvesting).

Residents’wereparticularlyquicktopointout

behaviouralalternativestoadapttosomeofthe

changingweatherconditions,suchasclosing

curtainsduringthedaytimeandopeningwindowsin

theevening(orevennotusingparticularrooms)to

reduceinternalhousetemperaturesinthesummer.

Thesecommonsensemeasurescouldreducethe

needfortechnicalmeasuresand/orchangestothe

builtfabricoftheirindividualproperties.Residents’

responsestoadaptationmeasureswerealso

influencedby:

• Previousweatherexperience–whethertheir

homehadfloodedbefore,iftheyhadfelt

uncomfortablyhotintheirhomesorexperienced

overheatinginfriends’/family’shomes;

• Familiaritywiththeoptions–whethertheyhad

heardofthembeforeandhoweffectivetheywere

perceivedtobe;and

• Responsibilityforaddressingclimaterisk–

whethertheythoughtthatindividualhouseholders

orotherstakeholderswereresponsiblefortaking

actiontoreducetheimpactofclimatechange.

Figure8.5givesasummaryofresidents’reasonsfor

beingmoreorlesslikelytoadapt.

Reasons for being likely to choose

an adaptation measure

Reasons for being less likely to choose

an adaptation measure

• Inexpensive

• Convenienttoinstall(i.e.DIY)

• Looksattractive

• Lifestylebenefits(enjoyable,reducesnoise)

• Providesenergycost-savings

• Environmentallyfriendly(reducescarbonemissions)

• Improvescurrentclimatecomfort

• Ismoreefficient

• Potentialforfinancialsupport(grantsandsubsidies)

• Couldbedoneeasilywithotherhomerenovations

• Tooexpensiveasinitialcost

• Majorbuildingworksrequired

• Bulkyandunattractive

• Potentialdamagetopropertyfrommeasure

• Lossofhousespace

• Inappropriatehousingorientationformeasure

• Lackofspaceorsunlightrequiredformeasure

• Simplerbehaviouralalternative

• Requiringexternalapproval(e.g.fromhousing

association)

Figure 8.5 Residents’reasonsforbeingmoreorlesslikelytochooseanadaptationoption

70

8.3.5 How does the likelihood to implement

adaptation measures vary between case studies?

Residents’likelihoodofimplementingadaptation

measuresvariesbetweencasestudiesbased

onthetype of the house and suburbandthe

characteristics of the community.

Housing and suburb type:someadaptation

measuresaremorepopularincertaincasestudy

areasdependingonthehousingtypeandthesuburb

typology.Forexampleshadedoutdoorspaceis

muchmorepopularinsuburbswithlargergardens

eventhoughitisapplicabletoallthehousingtypes.

Community characteristics:althoughcostwas

amajorfactorinallcasestudies,thehighestand

lowestincomeneighbourhoodsweremostlikely

tobeprimarilyinfluencedbyfinancialfactors.The

lowestincomeneighbourhoodcouldnotaffordthe

initialcostofmanymeasures,andthewealthier

neighbourhoodswouldnotchoosetospend

themoneyonmeasuresthatdidnotguarantee

afinancialreturnwithinashort-mediumterm

timeframe.Thewealthierneighbourhoodswere

moreresistanttomakingchangesforthesakeof,

orinresponseto,climatechange,andweremuch

moremotivatedbyfinancialorlifestylebenefits

fromcarryingoutimprovementstotheirproperties.

Thelow-middleincomeneighbourhoodswere

moreenvironmentallymotivatedandcouldalsosee

thepracticalbenefitsinadaptationmeasuresto

improvingtheclimatecomfortoftheirhomes.

Thewealthofresidentsalsoinfluencedthe

preferencestheyhadbetweendifferentadaptation

measuresthatachievedthesameclimatebenefit.

Forexample,althoughsolarfilmonwindows

wasverypopularinthelow-mediumincome

neighbourhoods,thewealthierneighbourhoods

favouredmoreexpensivewindowshadingmeasures

duetoconcernsthatsolarfilmmightlookcheapand

devaluetheirproperty.

Figure8.6summarisesthecommunity

characteristicsofeachcasestudyareathat

influencedresidents’likelihoodofimplementing

adaptationmeasures.

St Werburghs, Bristol

Low-mediumincomeowner-occupier

neighbourhood.Highenvironmentalawareness

amongresidents.Goodknowledgeoftheirproperty

characteristicsandhowapplicableadaptation

measuresmightbe.

Summertown, Oxford

Medium-highincomeowner-occupier

neighbourhood.Residentswerescepticalof

climatechangeprojectionsandsawlittleneedfor

adaptation.

Botley, Oxford

Medium-highincomeowner-occupier

neighbourhood.Residentswerescepticalabout

climatechangeandsawlittleneedforadaptation.

Someinterestinmeasuresthatincreaseclimate

comfortduringwarmsummerdays.

Cheadle, Stockport

Verylowincomesocialhousingneighbourhood.

Somemitigationmeasuresalreadybeencarried

outintheirpropertiesbythehousingassociation.

Residentshypotheticallyinterestedinadaptation

measuresiftheyhadthemoneytofundthem.

Bramhall, Stockport

Highincomeowner-occupierneighbourhood.

Residentsscepticalaboutclimatechange

projectionsandwerelesswillingtoconsider

adaptationmeasuresbecauseoflackofdirect

experienceofhotweather.Stronglymotivated

bycostandwouldonlyconsidermeasureswith

subsidiesthatwouldprovideafinancialreturnor

lifestylebenefit.

Horfield, Bristol

Lowincomemix-tenureneighbourhood.Housing

associationundertakensomemitigationmeasures

inhomes.Residentsinterestedinlearningmore

aboutadaptationmeasures.

Figure 8.6 Communitycharacteristicsofthesuburband

theirinfluenceonresidents’likelihoodofimplementing

adaptationmeasures

71

8.4 Neighbourhood adaptation

Inadditiontoaskingresidentsaboutchanges

totheirownhomeswewerealsointerestedin

theirviewsonchangestotheirneighbourhoods.

Becauseresidentsmayormaynotberesponsible

forimplementingsuchchangesweaskedthem

abouttheirpotentialroleinsuchadaptationsand

alsoabouttheiracceptanceofthemifimplemented

byanotheragency(e.g.LocalAuthority).Residents

werepresentedwithaselectionofneighbourhood

adaptationmeasuresappropriatefortheirsuburb

typeforstreetsandgreenspacesandasked

whethertheywerelikelyorunlikelytoacceptanyof

thesemeasuresintheirneighbourhood.

8.4.1 What is the level of support for adaptation

measures at the neighbourhood scale?

Figure8.7showsthelevelofresidentsupportfor

neighbourhoodadaptationsineachcasestudy.

Residentsaremainlypositiveaboutschemesto

adapttheirneighbourhood.Theyaremostpositive

aboutstreettrees,energyefficientstreetlighting,

blueinfrastructureingreenspacesandreconfiguring

thestreettoimprovedrainage(SUDS).Thereare

mixedviewsoncommunitycoolroomsbasedon

perceivedneedforsuchfacilities,andinonecase

studyresidentsdidnotsupportallotmentsbecause

theyconsideredtheretobeenoughalreadyinthe

localarea.Theonlystrongnegativeopinionsto

neighbourhoodadaptationwerefoundinonecase

studywhereresidentswereresistanttoanychanges

toavaluedlocalgreenspace.

Suburb typology Inner historic Inter-war Social housing Car Medium-high

Case study St WerburghsBotley

Oxford

Cheadle

Stockport

Bramhall

Stockport

Horfield

Bristol

Shading, localised cooling and drought resistance

Streettrees 4 4 4 4 -

Shadingingreenspace 7 4 - -

Blueinfrastructure - 4 4

Communitycoolroom - 4 - 4

Drought-resistanttrees -

Sharedspace - -

Flooding

Reconfigurestreetdrainage 4 4 4 4 4

Flooddefences 4 4

Mitigation of future climate change

Energyefficientstreetlighting 4 4 4 4 4

Allotments 7 - 4

Acceptabilityofoption:Acceptable4 Mixed- Unacceptable7


Figure 8.7 Residents’supportforneighbourhoodadaptationsbycasestudysuburb

72

Neighbourhoodadaptationsweresupported

becausetheywouldmakeneighbourhoodsmore

attractive(streettrees),improveenergyefficiency

(lighting)andreducesurfacewaterfloodingrisk

(reconfigurestreetdrainage,flooddefences).Some

concernswereraisedbyresidentsabouttheimpact

ofinstallingthesemeasuresandtheeffectofthe

changesontheneighbourhood,particularlywith

streettrees.Issuesofmaintenance,thepotential

damageoftreerootstofootpathsandroads,and

thedangerofobscuringvisibilityforreducedroad

safetyandanti-socialbehaviourwerementioned.

Thequestionofwhowouldpayforintroducing

thesemeasureswasalsoidentified,withresidents

concernedaboutincreasedtaxationormanagement

charges.

8.4.2 What factors determine residents’

acceptance of adaptation measures at the

neighbourhood scale?

Supportforadaptationmeasuresatthe

neighbourhoodscaleinstreetsandgreenspaces

wereinfluencedbythehistoryofcommunity

actioninthelocalarea,residents’experienceswith

previouslocalauthorityretrofittinginitiativesand

currentsocialissuesintheneighbourhood.Figure

8.8summarisesthekeyfactorsthatdeterminedthe

levelofsupportforadaptationatthisscale.

8.5 Responsibility for delivering adaptation

Akeyissueinconsideringadaptationiswhere

responsibilityliesfortakingaction.Theresidents

discussedthisissueatlengthandtheirviewsare

summarisedhere.

8.5.1 Who do residents think should be responsible

for adaptation?

Residentsconsideroverheatinganindividual’s

responsibilityandadoptingadaptationmeasures

isanissueofpersonalchoicetoimprovecomfort

levelswithinthehome.Theimpactsofincreased

temperaturemaybetoolong-termandgradualto

motivateproactiveactionintheshort-termunless

residentsalreadyexperienceuncomfortablyhot

weatherintheirhomes.Withregardtoflooding,

St Werburghs, Bristol

Highlevelofsupportforneighbourhood

adaptations.Historyofpositivecommunityaction

aroundenvironmentalissues.

Botley, Oxford

Lowlevelofsupportforneighbourhoodadaptations.

Oppositiontorecentlocalauthorityinitiativeto

modifylocalgreenspace.

Cheadle, Stockport

Highlevelofsupportforneighbourhood

adaptations.Historyofcommunityactionaround

socialissuesandgovernment-ledregeneration

experiencedashavingpositiveimpactsonthelocal

area.

Bramhall, Stockport

Highlevelofsupportforneighbourhoodadaptations

butscepticalofmeasuresbeingimplemented.Lack

ofhistoryoflocalauthorityinitiativesinlocalarea

andlossofcommunityleaderforcollectiveaction.

Horfield, Bristol

Moderatelevelofsupportforneighbourhood

adaptations.Neighbourhoodhistoryofsocial

problemscreatedconcernsoversecurityand

anti-socialbehaviourfromsomeneighbourhood

adaptations.Disruptionandmaintenance

residentsconsiderpreventativemeasuresalocal

authorityorcentralgovernmentresponsibility,

partlyduetotheperceivedineffectivenessof

individualactioninaddressingthethreatandpartly

duetoattitudesonpersonalandgovernment

areasofresponsibility.Butresidentsconsider

reactivefloodingmeasuressomethingtopossibly

considerafterafloodeventthroughinsurance

compensations.Thereisnospeculationbyresidents

thatinsurancecompaniesmightstopinsuring

againstfloodsinthefuture.Eventhosethathave

previouspersonalexperienceoffloodingdonot

necessarilyseetheneedtotakeactionthemselves.

Residentsfeltresponsiblefordamagetotheir

homesfromstorms/windetc.

Figure 8.8 Neighbourhoodfactorsthataffectedlevelof

supportforneighbourhoodadaptation

73

8.5.2 What role do residents think collective action

could have in delivering adaptation?

Residentsidentifiedtheneedforsomemeasures

tobeundertakenbyhouseholdersatthe

neighbourhoodscale.Forexample,someflood

measuresintroducedatthehouselevelwouldonly

beeffectiveifeveryoneinthestreetimplements

them.Othermeasures,suchasexternalinsulation,

wouldneedtobeinstalledoneveryhouseonthe

streettomaintainvisualcontinuityandbemorecost

efficient.

Theroleofcommunitygroupswasraisedas

importantfordeliveringneighbourhoodadaptations.

Residentsidentifiedtheimportanceofindividualsin

neighbourhoodsthatactedascommunityleaders

toinitiateprojectsandrallycommunityinvolvement

andsupport.Therecentlossofsuchaleaderin

onecommunitywasnotedasreducingcommunity

capacityforcollectiveaction.Localchurches,

communitytrusts,residents’actiongroupsand

tenants’associationswerediscussedasbeing

importantavenuesfortacklingneighbourhood

issues.

Theexistingcommunitycapacityinmost

neighbourhoodsisnotcurrentlybeingusedto

addressclimatechangeadaptationbutinsomeof

thecasestudyareasthereisexistingcommunity

activitytargetingmitigationandavarietyofother

issues(suchasanti-socialbehaviour)thatcouldbe

tappedintoforadaptation.

8.6 Conclusions

Thischapterhaspresentedasummaryofresidents’

responsestoadaptationintheirhomes,gardens

andneighbourhoods.Thefindingsarerevealing

inhighlightingresidents’awarenessofclimate

changeandtheirviewsonit.Theyalsoshedlight

onwhichadaptationsresidentsmayimplement

autonomously,andwhichtheywouldnot.Residents’

reasonsforactingand/ornotactingareusefulin

framingstrategiesforsuburbanadaptation.

75

Stakeholders’ responses to adaptation in suburbs

9.1 Introduction

Thischapterreportsthefindingsfromthethree

workshopsheldwithstakeholdersinOxford,Bristol

andStockport.Therangeofstakeholderattendees

hasbeendescribedinChapter4.Theyincluded

representationfromlocalauthorities(officersand

members),theconstructionindustry,thecommunity

andNGOsectoraswellasotherpublicbodies.

Around30stakeholdersattendedtheworkshops

acrossthethreecitiesandalthoughthiscannot

claimtoberepresentativeofallviewsheldbykey

stakeholdersinvolvedinsuburbanadaptation,itdoes

giveaclearperspectiveonthetypesofviewheld.

Attheworkshopstheparticipantsdiscussed:

• Thefindingsfromtheresidents’workshopsin

eachcity,andthestakeholders’experiencesof

workingwithhouseholdslocally;

• Theroleofcommunitiesinadaptation;

• Howthestakeholdersarecurrentlytackling

adaptation;

• Theroleofplanningandbuildingregulationsin

adaptations;

• Thebestmechanismsfordeliveringadapted

suburbs.

Thefindingsfromtheworkshopsaresummarised

here.

9.2 Stakeholders experiences of working with residents

Manyofthestakeholdersworkdirectlyorindirectly

withhouseholdersinmitigationand/oradaptation

actions.Othersareinvolvedwithresidentsdealing

withtheimpactsof,forexampledroughts,flooding

andoverheating.Thestakeholdersexperiencesof

workingwithresidentsissummarisedhere.

9.2.1 What are stakeholders’ experiences of how

residents understand adaptation?

Thestakeholdersreportedalackofresidents’

awarenessofclimatechangeand,inparticular,alack

ofconcernoveradaptation.Theywerenotsurprised

thatwehadfoundthathomeownerslacked

awarenessaboutspecificadaptationsolutions

thatgobeyondmeasuresthatalsoacttomitigate

climatechange,suchasinsulationanddouble-

glazing.Thestakeholdershadalsoexperienced

householders’lackofawareness,particularlyof

moretechnicalissues,suchasthermalmass.In

manyinstances,residentshaveneverevenheardof

particularmeasuresandoftenrequireprofessionals

toexplainthem.Thissaid,someofthearchitectural

stakeholdersreportedthatsomeoftheirclients

areconcernedabouttheeffectsofinsulationon

overheatingandairquality.Theseconcernsare

associatedwithcurrentthermalcomfort,andnot

aneedtoadaptforfutureclimatechange.Most

stakeholdersagreedthatclimatechangeisnot

likelytobethekeydriverfortheimplementationof

adaptationmeasuresinresidentialproperties.

9.2.2 What drives residents to install adaptation

measures in their homes? And what is likely to drive

them to install adaptation measures in the future?

Stakeholders’experienceswerethatresidentswere

motivatedtoinstallmitigationmeasuresmainly

bycostsavings.However,thepaybackperiodon

adaptationsisanimportantdriverforhouseholders.

Solarpanelsweregivenasanexamplewherepeople

areseeingthemasaninvestmentwhichgivesthem

areturnoveralongperiod.

Stakeholdersfeltthatthekeydriverforresidents

inthefuturewouldbeanincreaseinenergybills.

Suchincreasesmaymakesomeadaptationsmore

popular.Theyalsothoughtthatpeoples’experiences

ofclimatechangewouldneedtobemore‘extreme’

beforetheyact.

9.2.3 What stops residents from adapting their

homes? And what would stop residents from

adapting their homes in the future?

Thestakeholders’experienceswerethat

householdersareunlikelytotakeanticipatoryaction

iftheyarenotexperiencingproblems.Forexample,

temperatureswouldneedtorisesignificantlybefore

householderstakeactiontoinstalladaptation

measures.Theydescribedpeopleas‘market-

laggers’whowillresistdoinganythinguntilthey

haveto.Theyhadalsofoundthatmanypeople(and

communities)distrustgovernmentinformation

Chapter 9

76

andfreeservices,andthislimitsmitigationand

adaptationuptake.Inaddition,financialconstraints

oftenmeanthatadaptation(oranyhome

improvement)isnotapriority.Theyalsoreported

thatmanyresidentssimplydonotmakethe

connectionbetweenclimatechange,adaptationand

theirhomeorneighbourhoodenvironment.And,in

relationtothis,thereislittleadviceforhomeowners

onthisissue.Architecturalfirmsthatunderstand

theneedforadaptationandcanadviseonmeasures

areonlyusedbypeoplespendingalotofmoneyon

majorhouseextensions.Homeownersusuallygo

directlytosuppliersandbuilderswhodeliveran‘end

product’,ratherthanseekingarchitecturaladvice

abouthowtomake‘climateproof’adaptations.

Intermsoffuturechanges,stakeholdersnoteda

numberofkeyreasonsthatresidentsmaynotadapt.

First,theyconcurredwithourfindingsthatingeneral

peoplesawtemperatureincreasesaspositiveand

notsomethingtoworryabout.Increasedsummer

temperaturesarewelcomedbysomeintheNorth,

limitingtheperceivedneedforadaptationtoprevent

overheatinginhomes.Second,theydidnotfeelthat

currentpricingmechanismsaroundclimatechange

issueswereeffectiveinmakingpeopleconsider

adaptations.Forexample,currentlywaterisrelatively

cheap,andthepricemechanismsfordealingwith

surfacewaterarenoteffective.Third,theyfound

thatpeopleputoffchangestotheirhomesbecause

theydonotlikethedisruption.

Stakeholdersreflectedonthenatureofsuburbs

andsuburbanadaptation,arguingthatsome

adaptationsrepresenttoomuchofaculturalchange

tothelookofsuburbanhousingforresidentstofind

themdesirable.Theyalsocommented(asdidthe

residents)thatinstallingsomeadaptationmeasures

(suchasfloodprotection)coulddrawattention

topotentialproblemsinhomes,sothiswasalso

problematic.

9.2.4 What is needed to facilitate householders to

make adaptations to their homes?

Thestakeholdersdrewontheirexperiencesto

offerinsightsintowhattheyfeltwouldfacilitate

householderstoadapt.Theirsuggestionswere:

• Getthemessagesright:‘climatechange’

messagescancreateresistancetoaction,so

engagehouseholderswiththepracticaland

immediatebenefitsofinstallingadaptation

measures,andstresscost-effectivenessand

‘qualityoflife/comfort’benefits.Peopleneed

tobeengagedinthetangibleandimmediate

benefitsofaction,notonvaguenotionsoffuture

benefit.Stakeholdersperceivethatresidentsare

mostlikelytobemotivatedbycost-savingsand

comfort,somessagesofcost-effectivehouse

maintenanceandimprovingliveabilitymaybe

effective.Theythoughtlessonscouldbelearnt

fromthesuccessofclimatechangeactionwhere

low-carbonbehaviourisframedasamoney-

savingactivitynotjustanenvironmentalsolution.

• Provideadviceorinformationduring‘windowsof

opportunity’.Therearewindowsofopportunity

whenhomeownersaremorelikelytomake

changestotheirhomes,e.g.whentheyfirst

moveintoanewhomeandwhentheyaredoing

otherhomeimprovementssuchasextensionsor

replacingwindows.Thesearekeytimestoconvey

messagesaboutclimatechangemitigationand

adaptation.

• Providetrainingtothemaincontactpointsfor

homeimprovements.Trainthefrontlinecontact

points,e.g.builders,DIYstorestaff,estateagents

astheycanhelpwithsuggestionsforhome

improvementsatcriticaltimes.

• Targetinformationtoareasthathavealready

experiencedfloodingoroverheating.Peoplemay

bemoremotivatedtoimplementadaptation

measuresiftheyhavealreadyexperiencedthe

negativeimpactsofclimatechange(althoughour

findingsfromtheresidents’workshopsshowthat

thismaynotbethecasewithrespecttoflooding).

• Developdemonstrationprojectsofgood

adaptation.Fewexamplesofgoodadaptation

exist.Peopleneedtobeshowngoodexamples

ofanadaptedhouse(orneighbourhood)andto

seeadaptationmeasuresworkingeffectively

andlookingattractivetobeinterestedinmaking

changestotheirownproperties.

77

9.3 Stakeholders experiences of working with communities

Inadditiontohouseholdersactingindependently,

wewereinterestedincommunityresponsesto

adaptation.Thestakeholdershadsomeexperience

ofworkingwithcommunitiesandtheirviewsare

summarisedhere.

9.3.1 What drives communities to undertake

collective action for adaptation and mitigation?

And what deters them?

Thestakeholdershadexperienceofnon-

environmentalcommunitygroupswith

complementaryagendasworkingtoencourage

householderstomakechangestotheirhomes.

Thesegroupscouldhaveafocusonsocialinclusion,

olderpeoples’welfareorfuelpoverty,butthe

outcomeswerethesame(i.e.someadaptationsto

thehome).

Inothercircumstancescommunityactionhad

beenusedtoaccesscentralgovernmentfunding

thatlocalauthoritiescannot.Thiscommunityand

neighbourhood‘autonomy’isbeingplayedout

throughpolicyagendassuchasthe‘BigSociety’.

Amorecollaborativerelationshipwithlocal

authorities,forexamplethroughthedevelopment

ofneighbourhoodplanswhichcontainadaptation

measures,mightalsobeawayforward.However

therewaslittledirectionfromstakeholdersonhow

thismighthappen.

Currentlystakeholders’experienceswerethatvery

activecommunities,interestedinbothclimate

changemitigationandadaptation,wererare.

Lowcarbonorlowenergyobjectivesweremore

common,andadaptationtoclimatechangeand

resiliencemeasureswerenotpromotedbylow-

carbongroups.Inadditioncommunitygroupsthat

arecurrentlyengagedincommunityworkaround

floodingdonotnecessarilyengagewiththetopic

ofclimatechangeandthetrendthatfloodingis

likelytoworseninthefuture.Overall,community

campaigninggroupstendtohaveasingle-issue

focuswithanagendaforeitheradaptation(less

likely)ormitigation(morelikely),butnotboth.

9.3.2 What is needed to facilitate communities to

undertake collective action for adaptation?

Stakeholders’suggestedseveralkeyactionsthat

mightengagecommunitiesinadaptationactions:

• EncourageLocalAuthoritiestobuildlocalcapacity

forcollectivecommunityaction:LocalAuthorities

canencouragetheformationofcommunity

groupsthroughcapacity-buildingactivitiesand

provideadviceonaccessinggovernmentgrants.

• Buildadaptationintolow-carbonactivitiesalready

beingcarriedoutbycommunitygroups:Building

ontheexistingactivityandmomentumwithin

communitygroupsorientedoncarbonreduction

wouldbeaneffectivewaytodeliveradaptation.

9.4 Adaptations by stakeholders

Aswellasworkingwithresidentsandcommunities,

somestakeholdersaredirectlyinvolvedin

implementingsuburbanadaptation.Thissection

explorestheirexperiences.

9.4.1 How do stakeholders perceive climate change

in relation to their work on adaptation?

Thestakeholdersinourworkshopshadagood

understandingofclimatechange.Theymaynot

regularlyuseclimatechangedata,butoperatefrom

agenericunderstandingthatweatherconditions

intheUKaregoingtogetwarmerandwetter.Most

consideredfloodingacurrentproblemthatislikelyto

getworsethroughclimatechange.Overheatingand

droughtwereseenasaprobleminOxfordandBristol

butlesssoinStockport.Ingeneral,overheating

isacomparativelynewconcernforstakeholders

andthereisadegreeofuncertaintyabouthow

severetheproblemwillbeandwhen.Infact,many

ofthestakeholdersreportedthatthelong-term

timeframesofclimatechangeimpactsprovidea

reasontojustifythedelayintakingactioninthe

present.

Manystakeholdersinourworkshopsfocused,

professionally,onasingleclimatechangerisk:

flooding,overheatingordrought.Fewerhad

responsibilitiesforarangeofthreats.Theyall

distinguishedbetweencurrentclimateproblems

78

andthoseconnectedwithclimatechange.Most

assessedclimaterisksandtheneedforaction

relativetootherpartsofthecountry.

9.4.2 What is the relationship between ‘mitigation’

and ‘adaptation’ for stakeholders? And how are

stakeholders currently tackling adaptation?

Untilrecently,thepolicyfocusinEnglandhasbeen

onclimatechangemitigation,particularlyreducing

carbonemissionsthroughimprovingtheenergy

efficiencyofhomesandreducingtheneedfor

heatinginwinter.Adaptationisseenasanemergent

policyagenda.Perhapsbecauseofthis,adaptationis

notahighpriorityformanystakeholderscompared

tomitigation.

Manyofthestakeholdersareengagedintrying

toencouragemitigationandadaptationthrough

communityaction.Othersworkinthedeliveryof

thebuiltenvironment,andheretheyreportthat

thefocushasbeenonnewbuilddevelopment,

ratherthanretrofittingexistinghousingstock.Local

authoritiesdocurrentlyengageandencouragethe

privateowner-occupierhousingsectortoinstall

low-carbonmeasuressuchascavitywallandloft

insulation,andsomearetryingtoencouragethe

privaterentalsectortoinsulatehomesthrough

activelandlordforums.However,thestakeholders’

experienceswerethatHousingAssociations

currentlyleadthewayonmitigationmeasures.

Theyupgradeexistinghousingstockandhave

beenparticularlyattheforefrontwithinstalling

solarpanels.Theyaremuchmorelikelythanprivate

householderstoseekarchitecturaladviceforthese

improvements.

9.4.3 What role do building regulations and planning

have in delivering adaptation?

Duringthediscussionssomespecificpointswere

madearoundtheroleofbuildingregulationsand

planninginEngland.First,manystakeholdersargued

thatintermsofmitigationandadaptation,thescope

ofbuildingregulationsisquitelimited.Theyareonly

applicablefornewbuildorsubstantialadditionsto

existingbuildings.Hence,modificationsthatimpact

onclimatechange(positivelyornegatively)can

happenoutsideoftheregulations.Second,building

regulationsuseminimumstandardssotheydo

notnecessarilyencouragebestpracticeorideal

adaptationsolutions.Third,they(alongwithmost

ofthebuildingindustry)areverymuchfocusedon

reducingheatinginwinter.Thinkingaboutfuture

summerconditionsgeneratedfromclimatechange

willrequireadifferentsetofregulationsthatalso

accountsforpotentialoverheatingrisks.

Intermsofplanning,itwasnotedthatthereare

someseriouslimitationsinaddressingmitigationand

adaption.First,therearelimitstowhatthestatutory

planningsystemcandotoaddressclimatechange.

Theonlyleveragethesystemhastoregulatefor

adaptationiswhenhouseholdersareundertaking

significanthomeextensionsorloftconversions

whereplanningapprovalisrequired.Itcannotrequire

adaptationsretrospectivelyforpreviousextensions

orloftconversions.Therearealsolimitstowhatcan

berequiredofhouseholdersthroughconditional

planningpermission.Iftoomanyconditionsare

placedonhomeextensionsthentheworkmaynot

befinanciallyfeasibleandthereisariskofmakingit

unaffordable.Inaddition,someadaptationmeasures

arepotentiallyoutsidetheremitofplanningand

moreappropriatelycarriedoutthroughbuilding

regulations.Therearealsoproblemswithenforcing

regulations(forexample,localauthoritiesdonot

havethecapacitytoenforcepermeablesurfaces

beinglaidinfrontgardens).

Thissaid,planninglegislationdoeshavethepotential

toensurethatsomeclimatechangeadaptation

problemsdonotgetworse(e.g.therearenow

regulationsagainstfrontlawnsbeingpavedoverwith

impermeablesurfaces,althoughthereremainclear

enforcementissues).Andsomelocalauthorities

alreadyrequirelow-carbonmeasuresaspartof

planningapprovalsforloftconversionsandhome

extensionstoencouragehomeownerstomake

energy-efficiencyimprovements.However,thereare

limitstowhatcanbereasonablyrequiredinexisting

housingstock(seeChapter5).Itislikelythatlocal

policymakerswillneedtoprioritisemitigationand

adaptationconditionsonplanningapproval.

79

9.5 What are potential mechanisms for enabling suburban adaptation?

Aswellasunderstandingtheproblemsinherentin

adaptingsuburbs,wealsosoughtinsightsfromthe

stakeholdersonhowsuburbanadaptationmightbe

bestenabled.Therewassomeuncertainlyabout

whatthebestmeasureswere,butsuggestionswere:

• Awareness needs to be raised about the

connection between mitigation and adaptation:

morecommunityandpolicymakerawareness-

raisingisneededaboutthelinkbetweenmitigation

andadaptationandthebenefitsofretrofit.

• Adaptation and mitigation solutions needed

to be normalised:i.e.residentsshouldbe

incentivisedtoadapttheirhousesnowinorderto

maketheideaofretrofittingnormalandnotthe

exception.

• Adaptation needs to be integrated into existing

public and policy agendas:adaptationislikely

tobemostsuccessfullyaddressedbylinkingit

tootherissuessuchaslow-carbonandhealthy

communityagendas.Incorporatingclimatechange

adaptationtotherationaleforimplementing

changetothebuiltenvironmentfortheseother

agendascouldgenerateincreasedimpetustothe

politicalwillforadoptingsomeofthesemeasures.

Itwouldalsobeessentialtoensureactionfor

otheragendasdoesnotconflictwiththeneedto

adapttotheanticipatedclimaticchanges.

• Adaptation will require a combination of

individual, government-led and partnership

actions:thelikelygovernanceprocessesfor

achievingadaptationwouldbeacombinationof

individualhouseholder-ledandgovernment-led

actions.Householdersarelikelytoberesponsible

forimprovementstotheclimatecomfortoftheir

individualproperties.Localauthoritiesandflood

authoritieswouldberesponsiblefordelivering

adaptationmeasuresrequiredataneighbourhood

(andwiderurban/catchmentarea)scale,including

floodprevention.Theseorganisationswouldalso

usetheirexistingregulatoryframeworkstoplace

conditionsonplanningapprovalstoencourage

adaptationandundertakepromotionandadvice

initiativestosupportindividualaction.Multi-level

andmulti-agencypartnershipapproacheswill

berequired,forexample,inmanagingflooding

risk,becauseofthemultipleownershipof

infrastructureandthecomplexityofmanaging

surfacewater.

• Frontline channels of information for

householders making home improvements need

to be better informed:inafindingsimilartothat

oftheresidents’workshopsstakeholdersthought

thatbuilders,DIYstoresandestateagentsare

effectivechannelsofinformationforencouraging

homeownerstoimplementadaptationmeasures

intheirproperties.

• Effective communication of climate risks

will become critical:stakeholderswiththe

responsibilityforinformingthepublicabout

climatechangeriskswillneedtofindeffective

waysofcommunicatingtheserisks.Information

aboutdifferentlevelsofriskwillneedtobe

presentedinameaningfulandusefulformat

withoutscaremongering.

• Central government-controlled mechanisms

such as grants and subsidies are key mechanisms

to deliver adaptation:theyhavetobe

appropriatelyframedandsimplyadministered.

Forexample,theintroductionofthe‘GreenDeal’

couldprovideanopportunitytoincorporate

adaptationmeasurestoenablehouseholdersto

retrofittheirhomesforbothenergyefficiencyand

climatecomfortwithouttheinitialoutlaycost.In

particular,thereisaneedtoensurethatmeasures

forenergyefficiencydonotincreasethelikelihood

ofoverheatinginhomesduringsummer,avoiding

mal-adaptation.

• Local mechanisms for enabling adaption

have potential but require more resources:

localpromotioninitiatives,adviceandgeneral

communitycapacity-buildingactivitiesare

valuable.

• Pricing mechanisms for water and energy are,

potentially, key drivers of individual behaviour

change:(notwithstandingthelimitations

describedabove).

80

• Demonstration projects have a real value:

theyshowhouseholdersandprofessionalshow

adaptedhomes,gardensandneighbourhoods

lookandfunction.Localauthoritiescouldleadthe

waybyadaptingpublicbuildingsasflagships.

• More opportunities need to be taken of

‘economies of scale’:retrofittinghousingen

masseislikelytobecost-efficient,delivering

benefitsforindividualpropertyowners.Terrace

housingblocksinparticularcouldbetargetedfor

streetblockretrofitting,particularlyifexternal

insulationistobefittedtohomes.

Conclusions

Thischapterhassummarisedstakeholders’

experiencesofsuburbanadaptationandtheir

insightsintowhatmightmotivatechange.It

isimportanttosaythattheirsuggestionsfor

motivatingactionhavenotbeentestedfor

effectivenessindependentlyintheSNACCproject,

buttheyarebasedonawealthofexperienceofday-

to-dayworkinginclimateadaptation.

81

Synthesis of findings and conclusions – effective, feasible and acceptable suburban adaptations and pathways to achieving them

10.1 Introduction

Thischapterpresentssomekeyconclusionsfrom

theresearch.Itrevisitstheresearchquestions

posedinChapter1,anddrawsfindingsfromacross

thestudytoprovidenewinsightsintothechallenges

andopportunitiesforsuburbanadaptation.The

questionsposedwere:

• Howcanexistingsuburbanneighbourhoods

inEnglandbe‘best’adaptedtoreducefurther

impactsofclimatechangeandwithstandongoing

changes?By‘best’wemeant:whichsuburban

adaptationswouldbeeffective,feasibleand

acceptable?and;

• Whataretheprocessesthatbringaboutchangein

suburbanareas?Specifically:whatmightmotivate

residentsandotherstakeholderstoadaptto

presentandfutureclimatethreats?

Thesequestionsareansweredinturn.

10.2 How can existing suburban neighbourhoods in England be ‘best’ adapted to reduce further impacts of climate change and withstand ongoing changes?

10.2.1 Overarching findings about the ‘best’

adaptations

Theresearchresultedinsomespecificfindings

aboutthebestadaptationsforspecificclimate

risks,andinspecifictypesofsuburb(seebelow).

However,italsoproducedsomeoverarchingfindings

aboutthe‘best’adaptationsforsuburbs,whichare

presentedfirst.

• There is no ‘best’ ‘one size fits all’ adaptation

package that will work in every suburb.The

‘best’adaptationdependsonthetypeofsuburb

(andtypeofhousingwithinit),theclimatethreats

inthatsuburb(e.g.somesuburbsareatriskof

flooding,someoverheating),andtheresponse

capacityinthatsuburb(e.g.theeconomicand

socialconditions,andresourcesavailableinthe

suburb).

• Effective adaptations must combine ‘adaptive

retrofitting’ with ‘low carbon retrofitting’.There

isadangerthatsomelowcarbonadaptations

maymakesuburbslessabletocopewithfuture

weatherconditions,forexamplesomeformsof

insulation,insomehomes,mayexacerbatethe

riskofoverheating(SeeAppendixEforatable

ofpotentialsynergiesandconflictsbetween

adaptationmeasures).

• At both the neighbourhood and individual home

scales, adaptation packages are more effective

than single measures.Adaptationpackages

werefoundtobeeffectiveinreducingtheriskof

overheating,andarangeofgreening,landscaping

andengineeringmeasureswouldmake

neighbourhoodsmoreliveableinfutureclimate

conditions.

• Some neighbourhood adaptation options would

be effective in adapting most suburbs for future

climate threats.Forexample,‘greening’streets

andpublicspaces(addingstreettrees,allotments,

newgreenspaces),introducingsustainable

urbandrainagefeatures,andchangingtoenergy-

efficientstreetlightingwouldbeeffective(and

acceptable)inthemajorityofsuburbs.

• Some residential adaptation measures are

suitable for all housing, but others are only

feasible for specific dwelling types.Forexample,

mosthomeswouldbenefitfromroofinsulation,

windowshading,andwater-savingdevices.Yet

measuressuchascavitywallinsulationareclearly

notfeasibleforhomesbuiltwithsolidwalls.Some

measures,althoughtheycouldbeimplementedin

allhousingtypes,aremoreeffectiveandlikelyto

becarriedoutinparticularsuburbs.Forexample,

growingfoodandshadingoutdoorspacearemore

effectiveandlikelyinhomeswithlargergardens.

• For residents, the ‘best’ adaptations tend to

be cheap, convenient, practical (given the

type of home they have), attractive, and have

some other lifestyle benefit.Householders

arealsomorelikelytoimplementdual-purpose

adaptationssuchasthosethatmeetmitigation

andadaptationcriteria(e.g.insulation)orthose

thatimprovecomfortandarevisuallyattractive

(e.g.greenery).

Chapter 10

82

10.2.2 Key findings on the ‘best’ adaptations for

mitigation and for different climate threats

Inadditiontothesegeneralfindings,theresearch

providedsomekeyfindingsonthe‘best’adaptations

tomitigatefutureclimatechange,andfordifferent

climatethreats.Thesearesummarisedhere.

Findingsonthe‘best’adaptationsformitigating

further climate change.

• Home energy saving adaptations (roof and wall

insulation, double/triple glazing, PVs and solar

panels) were found to be effective in almost all

suburbs(notwithstandingsomeconcernsabout

overheating,seebelow),andwellunderstoodby

residentsandstakeholders.However,therewere

mixedviewsontheiracceptabilityandlikelihoodof

implementation.

• Increased greening of homes and gardens

(including food growing) is effective and has

multiple benefits in suburbs.Residentsare

positiveaboutitandlikelytoincreasegreenery

intheirownhomesandgardens.Neighbourhood

greeningiswelcomed,butthereareresourceand

practicalproblemsinimplementingit.

Findingsonthe‘best’adaptationsforflooding

• Effective adaptations to reduce the risk and

impact of floods in suburbs need to address

pluvial flooding from inadequate storm water

drainage, as much as fluvial flooding from

waterways.Thisisbecausetheformermay

contributetoagreaterproportionofflooding

problemsinthefuturewithincreasedrainintensity

andstormactivityexpectedfromclimatechange.

Ensuringporoussurfacesareretainedisimportant

(forexample,restrictingpavingoverfrontgardens

andlayinglargepatios),asisthedevelopmentof

sustainableurbandrainagesystems.However,

retrofittingSUDSinsuburbscanbedisruptiveand

expensive.

• A number of individual house-scale adaptations

can be effective in limiting some damage from

floods(e.g.airbrickcovers,flood-proofdoors,

floodgates).However,theyareunlikelytobe

implementedbyresidents,eveniftheyhave

experiencedfloodingorliveinanareaatrisk.

• Effective adaptations are those which leave the

neighbourhood or home more resilient after a

flooding event than it was before.Thiscanmean

thattheneighbourhoodisprotectedfromfurther

flooding,orthatflooddamageislimited.However

suchadaptationsareoftendifficulttoimplement

becauseinsurancecompaniesoftenonlyreplace

‘likewithlike’:theydonotpayformoreresilient

adaptations.

Findingsonthe‘best’adaptationsforsummertime

overheating

• A number of adaptation options are effective

in combating overheating in homes, but the

effectiveness of these options depends on the

characteristics of the home.Themosttechnically

effectiveadaptiveapproachistoreducesolar

radiationinto,andonto,thehome.Thiscanbe

doneinanumberofwaysondifferentscales,

e.g.plantingoftreesinthestreetsandwider

neighbourhood,and/orinstallingexternalshading

onhomes.Naturalventilationofthehomeis

alsofoundtobeextremelyeffective.Combining

adaptationoptionsintopackageswasfoundtobe

themosteffectivemethodofreducingtheriskof

overheating.

• Overall external shading (e.g. fixed outdoor

window shades or external shutters) is more

effective than internal shading (e.g. blinds).

Externalshuttersarethemosteffectiveasthey

keepsolarradiationoffwindowsurfacesbutthis

measurerequireskeepingshuttersclosedduring

summerdays(reducingnaturallightinhomes).

Plantinggreenwallcover,gardentreesorstreet

treesisalsoaneffectiveshadingmeasurefor

homes.

• Increasing the reflectivity of the exterior

surfaces of homes, e.g. a bright white render for

the exterior walls can also reduce overheating

risk,andresidentsarequitelikelytoimplement

it,ifitdoesnotundulyaltertheimageoftheir

neighbourhood.

• Addition of thermal mass to the home, e.g.

replacing a timber floor with a concrete floor

83

reduces potential overheatingdependenton

locationofmassandthecapacitytoreleaseheat

throughnighttimenaturalventilation.However,

thermalmassispoorlyunderstoodbyresidents

andtheyareunlikelytotakeaction.

• External insulation is effective in either reducing

overheating risk or minimising the increase in

overheating risk that would happen as a result

of installing insulation in homes.Internalwall

insulationcanincreasetheriskofoverheating.

However,externalwallinsulationisnotpopular

withresidentsandtheyareunlikelytoimplement

it.

• Reducing internal gains from sources such as hot

water heating tanks and pipe work in the home

is a very effective and inexpensive way to reduce

the risk of overheatingandincreaseenergy

savings.

• At the neighbourhood scale, the introduction

of blue and green infrastructure is likely to

bring cooling benefits and is welcomed by

residents.However,thereisuncertaintyover

implementation,particularlyaboutcostand

responsibilityforinstallationandmanagement.

• ‘Community cool rooms’couldbeeffectivein

heatwaves,butfewresidentsorstakeholders

perceivedaneedforthem,orwouldbelikelyto

implementthem.

Findingsonthe‘best’adaptationsforstorms and

driving rain

• A number of adaptations were effective in

protecting homes, gardens and neighbourhoods

from storm damage (e.g. weather-proofing

treatments to external walls, trickle vents,

retaining porous surfaces).However,residents

wereunlikelytoimplementthesespecificallyto

protecttheirhomesfromstormdamage.They

feltroutinemaintenance(e.g.clearinggutters,

replacingloserooftiles,ensuringgardenfences

werewellconstructed)weremoreimportant.

Likewiseattheneighbourhoodscale,few

adaptationswereconsideredinrespecttostorm

damage.

Findingsonthe‘best’adaptationsfordroughts and

water scarcity

• Effective adaptations to homes and gardens

include rainwater harvesting systems, and

simple measures such as water butts.Rainwater

harvestingwaspoorlyunderstoodandunlikely

tobeimplementedinmostsuburbs.Water

buttswerepopularandalreadycommonlyused.

Residentsunderstoodwaterscarcitybecausethey

hadexperiencedhosepipebans,butthishadnot

madethemmorelikelytoplantdroughtresistant

plantsorchangethetypeoffruitandvegetables

theygrow.

• At the neighbourhood scale planting that can

withstand climate changes and requires less

water is seen as an effective measure,andislikely

tobecomemorecommonlyimplementedbylocal

authorities.

• Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems can be

effective,andaremorefeasibleinlowerdensity

suburbswithmoreporoussurfaces,buttheycan

beexpensiveanddisruptivetoretrofit.

10.2.3 Findings on the ‘best’ adaptation for each of

the case study suburbs

Theresearchtestedadaptationoptionsinsixtypes

ofEnglishsuburb.Itispossibletodrawsomesimple

conclusionsbyusingthistypology,butitisnot

possibletogeneralisefromonecasestudyofeach

type,ortomakesuburb-specificrecommendations.

Eachofthecaseshadauniquegeographical

location,population,historyandsetofexperiences

oftheweatherandofcommunityactivitythat

influencedtheresidents’andlocalstakeholders

opinions.However,itispossibletosummarise

thefindingsaboutwhichadaptationoptionswere

effective,feasibleandacceptableineachcasestudy

andtocommentofthese,usinginsightsfromthe

workshops.

Thefiguresbelowofferan‘ataglance’summaryof

whichadaptationoptionsweredeemedeffective,

feasibleandacceptableinthecasestudysuburbs.

Alloftheadaptationsthatappearinthefigures

arealreadydeemedpotentiallyeffectiveforthat

particularcasestudy.Theywerethentestedfor

84

feasibilityandacceptability.Thefiguresemploya

‘trafficlight’system:

• Redindicatesthattheadaptationoptionisnot

feasibleforpracticalreasonsornotacceptable

toresidentsorotherstakeholders(becausefor

example,itistoocostly,unattractive,oroutof

characterwiththesuburb);

• Amberindicatesthateithertherearemixed

viewsaboutthefeasibilityoracceptabilityofthe

adaptation,oruncertainlyaroundimplementation.

Theseadaptationsarenotruledoutbyresidents

andstakeholdersbutthereisambiguityaroundif

andhowtheywouldbeimplemented;

• Greenindicatesthateithertheadaptationhas

alreadybeenimplemented,orislikelytobesoby

residentsand/orotherstakeholders.



changeSummer Winter

Photovoltaicpanels/Solar

panels

Growfood

Externalwallinsulation

Double/tripleglazing

Roofinsulation

Airsourceheatpump

Shading

Externalsolarshading

Externalshutters

Solarfilm

Cooling&ventilation

Wallgreenery

Lock-openwindows

Droughtresistance

Rainwaterharvesting

Droughtresistantplanting


drivingrain

Water-proofwindowseals

Tricklevents

Flooding

Flood-proofdoor

Floodgate

Airbrickcovers

Elevateelectricalsockets

Floodskirting



Streettrees

Flooding

Flooddefenses

Reconfigurestreetdrainage


change

Energyefficientstreet

lighting

Figure 10.1 Innerhistoricsuburb:StWerburghs

85



changeSummer Winter

Photovoltaicpanels

Solarpanels

Growfood



Roofinsulation

Shading


Internalshutters

Solarfilm

Shadedoutdoorspace

Extendedeaves

Cooling&ventilation

Internalthermalmass

Lock-openwindows

Greenroof

Whiteroofandwalls

Droughtresistance

Rainwaterharvesting

Waterbutt


drivingrain

Externalrender

Flooding

Flood-proofdoor

Floodgate

Airbrickcovers



Streettrees

Shadingingreen

space

Blueinfrastructure

Droughtresistanttrees

Communitycoolroom

Flooding



change


lighting

Figure 10.2 Medium/highdensitysuburb:UpperHorfield



changeSummer Winter

Photovoltaicpanels/Solar

panels

Growfood



Roofinsulation

Cavitywallinsulation

Shading

Internalshutters

Solarfilm

Shadedoutdoorspace

Extendeaves


Cooling&ventilation

Whiteroofandwalls

Wallgreenery

Greenroof

Droughtresistance

Rainwaterharvesting

Waterbutt


drivingrain

Externalrender

Tricklevents

Flooding

Flood-proofdoor

Floodgate

Airbrickcovers




Streettrees

Shadingingreenspace

Blueinfrastructure

Communitycoolroom

Flooding



change


lighting

Allotments

Figure 10.3 Interwarperiodsuburb:Botley,WestOxford

86

House and Garde Neighbourhood


changeSummer Winter

Photovoltaicpanels

Solarpanels

Growfood



Roofinsulation


Shading


Internalshutters

Solarfilm

Shadedoutdoorspace

Extendedeaves

Cooling&ventilation

Internalthermalmass

Whiteroofandwalls

Lock-openwindows

Greenroof

Droughtresistance

Underpinhouse

Rainwaterharvesting

system


drivingrain

Externalrender

Tricklevents

Flooding

Replacenon-porous

driveways

Flood-proofdoor

Floodgate

Airbrickcovers




Streettrees

Shadingingreenspace

Blueinfrastructure

Communitycoolroom

Drought-resistanttrees

Flooding


Flooddefences


change


lighting

Allotments

Figure 10.4 Pre-War‘gardencity’typesuburb:Summertown,NorthOxford



changeSummer Winter

Photovoltaicpanels

Solarpanels

Growfood



Roofinsulation


Shading

Wallgreenery

Greenroof

Shadedoutdoorspace


Internalshutters

Solarfilm

Extendeaves

Cooling&ventilation

Lock-openwindows

Internalthermalmass

Whiteroofandwalls

Droughtresistance

Underpinhouse

Waterbutt


drivingrain

Externalrender

Tricklevents

Flooding

Flood-proofdoor

Floodgate

Replacenon-porous

driveways

Airbrickcovers


Replaceinternalflooring



Streettrees

Blueinfrastructure

Shadingingreenspace

Communitycoolroom

Flooding


Flooddefences


change


lighting

Allotments

Figure 10.5 SocialHousingsuburb:Cheadle,Stockport

87

Overalltheseresultsshowthat:

• Smallscalechanges(suchaswaterbuttsandwall

greenery)aremorelikelytobeimplementedthan

largescalechangestothefabricofthehome.

• Neighbourhoodadaptationandmitigation

measuresareacceptabletocommunities,but

(withtheexceptionofenergyefficientstreet

lightingandsomegreening)areunlikelytobe

implemented.

• Themostcommonlyimplementedhouseholder

measuresarethoselinkedwithresidents’hobbies,

lifestyleandmoneysavingchoices,orhome

improvementprojects:theyarenotimplemented

toresponddirectlytoclimatechange.

10.3 What are the processes that bring about

change in suburban areas? Specifically: what might

motivate residents and other stakeholders to

adapt to present and future climate threats?

Attheoutsetoftheprojectweposedthequestion

‘Whataretheprocessesthatbringaboutchangein

suburbanareas?’Astheresearchprogresseditwas

apparentthatverylittlechangewasactuallytaking

place:understandingthisinertiawasanecessary

pre-requisiteforunderstandingwhatmightenable

changeinthefuture.Hence,theconclusionsrelate

tothecurrentcontextforsuburbanadaptation,

beforemovingtotheissueofmotivatingaction.The

researchfoundthat:

• Suburbs are extremely varied entities, and

change within them is complex.Therearevarious

typesofsuburb,housingdifferentcommunities

indifferentlocations,withacomplexrangeof



changeSummer Winter

Photovoltaicpanels

Solarpanels

Growfood



Roofinsulation

Shading


Internalshutters

Solarfilm

Shadedoutdoorspace

Extendeaves

Cooling&ventilation

Internalthermalmass

Whiteroofandwalls

Wallgreenery

Greenroof

Lock-openwindows

Droughtresistance

Rainwaterharvesting

system

Waterbutt


drivingrain

Externalrender

Re-pointbrickwork

Woodprotectors

Tricklevents

Maintainguttering

Flooding

Replacenon-porous

driveways



Streettrees

Shadingingreenspace

Blueinfrastructure

Communitycoolroom

Flooding



change


lighting

Allotments

Figure 10.6 CarSuburb:Bramhall,Stockport

88

stakeholdersresponsiblefordifferentaspects

ofthebuiltandnaturalenvironments,andfor

differentclimaterisks.

• At the home and garden scales some mitigation

and adaptation actions are taking place, but

for the majority of residents climate change is

a non-issue.Mostresidents:donotthinkabout

climatechangeintermsofneedingtoadaptto

futureweather;arescepticaloftheextentof

climatechange;welcomeanincreaseinsummer

temperatures;anddonotseetheneedto

prioritisespendingmoneyonadaptations.

• At the neighbourhood scale, very little adaptive

action is taking place.Someadaptivemeasures

arelinkedwithregenerationprojectsorarea-wide

greeningstrategies,butverylittleisexplicitly

relatedtoadaptingtofutureconditions.

• There is no clear process, or delivery mechanism,

for adaptation and/or mitigation at the suburban

neighbourhood scale.Manyofthemosteffective

measuresarenotcurrentlybeingcarriedoutin

existingareasnorislarge-scaleretrofittinglikelyto

occur.

What might motivate residents and other

stakeholders to adapt to present and future

climate threats?

Actioninanumberofkeyareascouldprovide

pathwaysforadaptationinsuburbs.Thefollowing

sectionsummarisesthekeymechanismsthatmight

motivatechange.

• More experience of climate change (gradual

changes and extreme events).Currently,climate

changeisnotamotivatorforchangeinsuburbs.

Householdersfindithardtorelatetobecause

theyhavenotgenerallyexperiencedproblems.As

thepublicarenotoverlyconcerned,theissueis

nothighonthepoliticaladdendaeither.However,

asEnglandexperiencesmoreheatwaves,floods

andextremeweatheritislikelythatrespondingto

theseriskswillbecomeahigherprioritypolitically

andpractically.

• Normalising of simultaneous mitigation and

adaptation practices, and their introduction

into organisations’ long-term planning and

day-to-day activities.Asexperiencesof

climatechangebecome‘real’,andmitigation

andadaptationmeasuresareintroducedthey

arelikelytobecomepartofnormaldecision

makingprocessesforhouseholdersandother

stakeholders.Asadaptationsbecomemore

visible,theyarelikelytobecomemoreacceptable.

Forexample,somelocalauthoritiesarebeginning

tointroduceadaptationmeasuresaspart

ofcyclesoflong-termplanningandroutine

management.Adaptationisbeingbuiltintostreet

andparkmaintenanceprogrammeswherecosts

aremarginal,e.g.whereroadsurfacinghasto

bedoneanyway.Majorretrofittingmeasures

suchasimplementingSUDsneedtobebuiltinto

conventionalsystematiclong-termplanningand

maintenance,e.g.streetresurfacingactivities.

Localauthoritymaintenancethattakesinto

accountadaptationcouldachieveeffective

changeoverthelong-term.

• A better understanding of the multiple pathways,

involving a range of stakeholders, that could

deliver effective suburban adaptation.Thereis

nosingle‘process’ofeffectiveadaptation.Itis

likelythatacombinationofindividual,community,

government-led,andpartnershipactionswill

berequired.Householdersarelikelytobe

responsibleforimprovementstotheclimate

comfortoftheirindividualproperties.Partnership

approacheswillberequired,forexample,in

managingfloodingrisk,becauseofthemultiple

ownershipofinfrastructureandthecomplexity

ofmanagingsurfacewater.Thepotentialfor

communityactionalsoneedstobemaximised.

Somelocalauthoritiesareheavilyengagedin

communitycapacitybuildingactivitiesforlow-

carbonprojects,andbuildingontheseexisting

activitiesandcommunitygroupscouldbean

effectivewayofintegratingadaptationactivityinto

neighbourhoods.

• Prioritising resources for adaptation.Currently

bothhouseholdersandlocalandnational

governmentarenotprioritisingresourcesfor

climatechangemitigationoradaptationto

effectivelyadaptsuburbs.Manyofthechanges

neededarecostly,andhavemedium-longterm

benefits.

89

• Clearer responsibilities for adaptation.At

thesuburbanscaleoneofthekeyproblemsin

effectivemitigationliesinunderstandingwhois

responsibleforchange.Intermsoffloodrisk,in

someplacesthisisleadingtoparalysis.Thereis

confusionoverthescaleatwhichtheriskshould

bemanaged,theownershippatternsinsuburbs,

andmisunderstandingsaboutthenatureofrisk

insurance.Theintroductionofneighbourhood

planning,orplace-basedcommunalactioncould

helptounravelsomeofthesecomplexities,but

withoutsignificantclarificationvariousagencies

inmanysuburbswilldonothing,andleave

neighbourhoodsvulnerable.

• Communicating climate change and its risks

effectively for different audiences.Different

actorsinvolvedin,oraffectedby,suburban

adaptationengagewithitindifferentways.

Hence,framingchangestohomesandlocal

neighbourhoodspurelyintermsof‘climatechange’

and‘risk’isnotalwayseffectiveinmotivating

action.Stakeholderswiththeresponsibilityfor

informingthepublicaboutclimatechangerisks

willneedtofindeffectivewaysofcommunicating.

‘Climatechange’messagescancreateresistance

toaction,sohouseholdersmayneedtobe

engagedthroughmessagesaboutthepractical

andimmediatebenefitsofinstallingadaptation

measures,andthecost-effectivenessand‘quality

oflife/comfort’benefits.

• Ensuring practical information about adaptations

is communicated at the right time and by

trusted people/organisations.Itisimportantthat

householdersgettherightadviceorinformation

whentheymaybeabouttomakechangesto

theirpropertiese.g.whentheyfirstmoveintoa

newhome,orwhentheyaredoingotherhome

improvements,whentheyareapplyingforplanning

permissionorbuildingregulationapproval.This

includesinformationaboutGovernmentgrantsand

schemes.Itisalsoimportantthatfrontlinecontact

points,e.g.builders,DIYstorestaff,Planningand

BuildingRegulationstaff,andutilitiescanhelpwith

accurateinformation.However,providinggeneric

adviceisnotalwayseffective,asmanyadaptations

areproperty-specific.Inthesecasesappropriate

specialists(architects,builders)needtobeeasily

availabletohouseholds.

• Ensuring adaptation is embedded in planning

policies and practices and building regulations.

Planningpoliciesandpracticesandbuilding

regulationsneedtoensurethatfutureclimatic

conditionsareconsideredwhenchangestothe

physicalenvironmentofsuburbsareproposed.

Neitherhavemuchpowerinpro-activelybringing

aboutchange:buttheycouldbemorepowerfulin

stoppingfutureproblems.

• Learning from places where neighbourhood

action (and/or adaptive action) is successful.

Althoughcasesoffullyadaptedneighbourhoods

arerare,thereareexamplesofgoodpracticein

termsofneighbourhoodlevelactionthatcould

beappliedtothesuburbancontext.Thereare

alsoexamplesofbuiltenvironmentsolutionsfrom

countrieswithclimatessimilartothatprojectedfor

Englandthatcouldinformlocalstrategieshere.

• Ensuring that central government-controlled

mechanisms such as grants and subsidies are

appropriate to deliver adaptation.Government

initiativesandfundingiswelcomed,butpoorly

understoodbymosthouseholders.Itisimportant

thatinitiativesareappropriatelyframed(see

findingsaboutcommunicationabove),andsimply

administered.

Conclusions

TheSNACCresearchprojecthasansweredsome

keyquestionsaboutthefutureofEnglishsuburbs

andhowtheymightadapttocurrentandfuture

climateconditions.Ithasunearthedsomedifficult

truthsaboutthecapacityforstakeholdersliving

in,andresponsiblefor,suburbstorespondto

climatechange.Ithasalsoexploredsomepotential

pathwaysforprogress:thesenowneedtobetested

andvalidatedovertime.

Overall,theresearchhasshownthattheresponse

capacityinanygivensuburbisbothcomplexand

changing.However,aclearmessageisthatto

motivatepeopleandachieveprogressapositive

visionofchangehastobeoffered.Residents’are

understandablyemotionallyandfinanciallyattached

totheirhomes,andmostvaluehighlythecharacter

oftheirneighbourhoods.Changethatismotivated

90

byvisionsofamoreliveable,attractive(andresilient)

future,andthatlinkstopeoples’interestsandvalues,

hasabetterchanceofengagingandmotivating

themtoactthanavisiondrivenbythelanguageof

climatechangeandrisk.

91

The Hedonic Pricing Method

Thehedonicpricemethodconsidershousing

acompositecommodity,comprisingthe

neighbourhood(includingaccessibilityandsocio-

economicprofile)andenvironmentalcharacteristics

ofthelocality,alongwiththestructural

characteristicsoftheproperty.Thisisaverypopular

methodinthefieldsofreal-estateresearch(e.g.

Zuehlke,1987;Watkins,2001;PryceandGibb,2006)

andenvironmentaleconomics(e.g.Dayetal.,2007;

ZabelandKiel,2000;Poweetal1995).Thedata

requirementsofahedonicmodelincludealargeand

sufficientlydiversesampleofhousingtransactions

suchthatallattributesareobservedandindifferent

combinationsandquantities.

ThepricePofthehousem,inthekthresidential

locationisgivenby:

Pmk=Pm(Sk,Nk,Ek) (1)

WhereSmkarethestructuralcharacteristicsofthe

house,Nkaretheneighbourhoodcharacteristics

andEkaretheenvironmentalcharacteristics.From

equation1wecanderivetheimplicitpriceforany

givenattributeoramenity.Forexample,theimplicit

priceofhigherenergyefficiencywouldbethe

additionalamountofmoneythatwillbepaidfora

housingpackagewithamarginalincreaseiny.Modelestimationthenyieldsthepricediscountorpremium

associatedwiththeeffect.

Data

WeemployeddataforthewholeofEnglandfromthe

EnglishHousingConditionSurvey(EHCS),consisting

of15,515householdobservationsfor2005-06.The

surveyinvolvesaphysicalinspectionofpropertyby

professionalsurveyors,providinganaccuratepicture

ofthetypeandconditionofhousinginEngland,the

peoplelivingthere,andtheirviewsonhousingand

theirneighbourhoods.

Thereisawealthofrelevantinformationavailable

suchas,tenure,structuralcharacteristicsofeach

house,localenvironmentalattributes,accessibility

andsocio-economiccharacteristicsofthelocalarea.

OneimportantpointforHPmodellingisthatthesale

TheSNACCprojectdevelopedaseriesofadaptation

andmitigationstrategiesthatwouldrequire

modifications/changestoindividualproperties

andtheneighbourhoodwithinwhichtheproperty

islocated(WP3).Thispartoftheresearchaims

todeterminewhichneighbourhoodadaptation

features,houseenergyconsumptionattributesand

environmentalcharacteristicsarecapitalisedintothe

valueofresidentialpropertyintheUK.Tothateffect

HedonicPricing(HP)modelsaredevelopedanalysing

theUKhousingmarket.

NotallofthestrategiesorelementsinWP3can

beanalysedtodeterminetheimpactuponprice,

eitherbecausetheusabledatasetssimplydonot

includetheattribute,thetechnologyistoonew(for

example,communitycoolroom)orthechangeistoo

subtletosignificantlyinfluenceprice(forexample,

elevationofelectricalsockets).However,through

reviewofexistingliteratureandanalysisofextensive

databasesofpropertytransactions/valueswethrow

somelightontheimpactonhousepricesofstreet

trees,gardens,accessibilitytoopenspace,flooding,

neighbourhoodcharacteristicsandlayout,and

physicaladaptationsthatimproveenergyefficiency

(insulation,doubleglazing,solarpanelsetc).

Brieflyfromexistingliteraturewefindevidencethata

numberofstrategiesproposedinWP3canpositively

influencehouseprice.Forexamplefactorsaffecting

housepricepositivelyareenergyefficiency(Brounen

andKok,2010),thepresenceoftrees(Willisand

Garrod,1992),andaccesstoopenspace(Dehring

andDunse,2006).Onesignificantnegativefactoris

flooding.Previousstudiessuggestthatproperties

locatedinafloodplain(andthesubsequentfearof

flooddamage)arevaluedlowerthancomparable

onesoutsideofafloodplain,(MacDonaldetal.1987;

SkantzandStrickland,1987;Donnelly,1989;Speyrer

andRagas1991).Thesignificanceofneighbourhood

layoutandstreetconfigurationhasbeenless

conclusive.Forexample,MatthewsandTurnbull

(2007)testfeaturesofNewUrbansim,specifically,

neighbourhoodcompositionandstreetlayout.They

concludethatitdoesnotnecessarilyhaveuniversal

appealtohousepurchasers.

Withinthisempiricalstudywefocusupontheimpact

ofenergyefficiency(SAP)rating,insulation,double

glazing,heatingsystem,gardensandaccessibilityto

openspace.

Determining the impact on property values of a range of adaptation options: developing a hedonic pricing model

Appendix A:

92

priceisnotavailableinthisdata,butavaluationof

thepropertythatisemployedasaproxytotheprice.

Furthermore,theenergyratingdefinitionusedisthe

UKGovernment’sStandardAssessmentProcedure

(SAP)forenergyratingofbuildings.

Findings

Asemi-logspecificationisselectedinourmodels,

sinceitisthemostwidelyusedintheliterature

providinganexcellentgoodness-of-fittothedata.

Weestimatethefollowingeconometricmodel:

(2)

WhereLnPisthenaturallogarithmoftheprice/value

fordwellingiinthejthhousingmarket.Sisavectorofthestructuralcharacteristicsofthehousei.Nisavectoroftheneighbourhoodandsocioeconomic

characteristics.Eisavectoroftheenvironmentalof

thedwelling.

Alltherelevantvariablesareincludedinthe

modelling.Thesemi-logmodelhadagoodoverall

fit(R2=0.76).Mostofthecoefficientswereofthe

correctsignandstatisticallysignificant.Statistical

testsshowedthepresenceofheteroscedasticity.

White’s(1980)standarderrorcorrectionwas

employedtocorrectforthis.

Themodelproducesestimatesofneighbourhood

adaptationcharacteristics,suchasenergy

consumptionattributesandenvironmental

characteristicsthatarecapitalisedintothevalue

ofresidentialpropertyintheUK.Someoftheseare

presentedinFigureA1,asmonetaryvaluesorimplicit

prices.

The£75.9inFigureA1referstothevalueplaced

inimprovingtheSAPratingofahouseby1.The

effectivenessofinsulation,asperceivedbythe

residents,providesapremiumof£4328.Theold

heatingsystemandperceivedair-pollutioninthearea

seemtodecreasehousevaluesby£1769and£3291

respectively.

Thegreenspaceandgardendensitydummy

variablesneedtobeviewedwithrespecttotheirbase

categories.Thebasecategoryforgreenspaceis

“over50%inthearea”.Weseeasignificantdecrease

inhousevaluesformostcategorieswithlessgreen

space.Similarly,comparedwithabasecaseofa

gardenof100-250sqmsperdwelling,largergardens

commandasignificantpremiumof£17,591over

thebasecategorywhilehousevaluesarenegatively

affectedbysmallergardensizetothebasecategory

(whentheeffectisstatisticallysignificant).

Thesefindingsofcoursewouldhaveimplications

formoreradicalformsofneighbourhoodadaptation

involvingintensificationandraisingofdensities.

Itisclearfromboththeliteraturereviewandfromthe

empiricalanalysisusingEHCSthatarangeofelements

withintheadaptationandmitigationstrategiescould

beexpectedtoimpactonhousingvalues,although

notalloftheelementsconsideredelsewhereinthis

researchcanbetestedandnotallwouldbeexpected

tohavedetectableeffects.Someoftheeffects

asmeasuredfrom2005-06datamayactuallybe

greaterifmeasuredonmorerecentdata,insofar

aspublicattentionto,andinformationavailability

about,domesticenergyefficiency(inparticular)has

increased.Generallythemeasuresassessedherehave

beenshowntohaveapositiveeffectonhousevalues,

althoughthiswouldnotbethecaseforintensification.

Thismaybetakentobeamotivatorforhouseholders

toinvestinsuchmeasures,ortosupporttheir

generalintroduction,althoughwhethersufficientlyto

inducethemtomakeasignificantcashinvestmentis

anotherquestion.Itshouldofcourseberemembered

that,incasessuchasenergyefficiency,thevalue

enhancementislooselyassociatedwithaprospective

savinginannualenergybills.

Figure A1:

Examplesof

MonetaryValues

ofEnergyand

Environmental

Attributes

Variable Marginal Implicit Price (£)

Energyefficiency(SAP2005)rating 76**

Residentsperceivetheareaaspolluted -3,291***

Ageofheatingsystemover12years -1,770**

Highperceivedeffectivenessofinsulation 4,329***

Greenspacebetween0-10%inthearea




1132

-3,242***

-3,883***

Basecategory

Gardendensity0sqmsperdwelling

Gardendensity1-25sqmsperdwelling

-20,136***

2,039




Gardendensityover250sqmsperdwelling

-8,673***

-3,720***

Basecategory

17,591***

***statisticallysignificantat99%level,**statisticallysignificantat95%level

93

UKCP09datahadtobespatiallyandtemporally

downscaledviatheUKCP09WeatherGenerator

inordertoassessclimatechangeimpactthrough

DECoRuM-Adapt.Spatiallyeachneighbourhoodis

representedbya25kmsquaregridandtheimpacts

aresimulatedusingweatherdata(currentand

future)thatisassignedtoeachindividualgridsquare.

Temporally,DECoRuM-Adaptassessesimpact

usingthechangeinmeanmonthlytemperature

andmeanmonthlysolarirradiation.Thesimulation

processofDECoRuM-AdaptcanbeseeninFigure

B2wherealldatacollectedinFigureB1issimulated

usingthevaryingclimateinputs.Theresultsarethe

impacts,e.g.annualCO2emissions,overheating

potential.Fromtheanalysisofthevariousimpacts,

anassessmentofthecausesofoverheatingand

changeinCO2emissionsleadstothedevelopment

ofadaptationoptionsandultimatelyadaptation

packages.Thesechanges(adaptations)aremade

tothehomesandre-runthoughtheclimate

projectionsresultinginnewimpactoutcomes.

DECoRuM©(DomesticEnergy,Carboncounting

andcarbonReductionModel)isaGIS-basedtoolkit

forcarbonemissionsreductionplanningwiththe

capabilitytoestimatecurrentenergy-related

CO2emissionsandeffectivenessofmitigation

strategiesinexistingUKdwellings,aggregatingthe

resultstoastreet,districtandcitylevel(Gupta,

2008;Gupta,2009).Theaggregatedmethodof

simulationandmap-basedpresentationallowsthe

resultstobescaledupforlargerapplicationand

assessment.FortheSNACCproject,DECoRuM

wasfurtherdevelopedasDECoRuM-Adapt©to

analysetheimpactofclimatechangeonenergyuse

andcomfort.DECoRuM-Adaptusesdownscaled

climatedatafromUKCP09toestimateprobabilistic

futureoverheatingpotentialandtheeffectiveness

ofadaptationstrategiesformodelleddwellings.To

informthemodel,actualhomeandneighbourhood

characteristicsaregatheredfrommaps,on-

siteassessmentandliteraturedescribinghome

characteristicsbasedonageandtypology.The

backgroundcalculationsofDECoRuMareperformed

byBREDEM-12andSAP2009bothofwhichare

dynamicallylinkedtocreatethemodelandperform

theanalysis.FigureB1liststhecategoriesand

numberofparametersthatBREDEM-12requires.

Thereisawealthofstatisticalinformationthatcan

beexportedincludingannualCO2emissions,running

costsandoverheatingpotential.

Developing DECoRuM-Adapt© (a Domestic Energy, Carbon counting and carbon Reduction Model) to analyse the impact of climate change on energy use and comfort

Category used for data reduction Numbers of parameters Percentage of parameters

Datacommontoalldwellings 50 52.7%

Dataderivedfrombuiltform 5 5.3%

Dataderivedfromage 18 19.0%

Datacollectedforindividualdwellings 22 23.0%

Total 95 100%

Figure B1ListofcategoriesusedfordatareductioninDECoRuMandDECoRuM-Adapt(Gupta,2008)

Appendix B:

94

DECoRuM-Adaptisarelativelyquickmethodforthe

creationofmapsindicatingoverallneighbourhood

responsetoclimatechangeandadaptation.

Thesemapsareultimatelyusefulforpresentation

andcommunicationofprobabilisticrisk,energy

savingpotentialandeffectivenessofadaptation

fordecision-makerssuchashomeownersand

localcouncilmembers.BeyondDECoRuM-Adapt,

moredetailedenergymodellingandsimulation

isperformedonanumberofselecthomesusing

IES’ModelITandApacheSimrespectively.These

simulationsareperformedtoconfirmresultsfrom

DECoRuM-Adaptandtounderstandaselected

house-by-houseresponsetoclimatechangeand

adaptationeffectiveness.Anotabledifferencein

thetwosimulatorsishowclimatedataisprocessed.

UKCP09datahadtobespatiallyandtemporally

downscaledviatheUKCP09WeatherGenerator

inordertoassessclimatechangeimpactthrough

bothsimulationplatforms,howeverthetworequire

differentscalesofspatialandtemporaldetail.

Temporally,DECoRuM-Adaptassessesimpactusing

thechangeinmeanmonthlydatawhereas,IESuses

awiderangeofhourlyweatherdataincludingwind

speed.Spatially,thedifferencerepresentsclimate

detailona25kmgridsquareanda5kmgridsquare.

Thedifferencebetweenthetwospatialscalescan

beseenonthemapsofthecasestudycitiesbelow

(FigureB3).

Figure B2 ProcessofDECoRuM-Adapt(originalDECoRuManalysisislimitedtotheboxeswithwhitebackgroundshowever,

mitigationmeasuresareappliedandtheprocessisre-run.)

Figure B3 Mapsshowingthe25kmgridsquare(orange)inrelationtothe5kmgridsquares(purple)forBristol,Oxfordand

Stockport.Theredpin-pointindicatesthelocationofthesixcasestudyneighbourhoods(imageadaptedfromDEFRA,

2011).

95

differencesbetweentheinkbasedvisualisationand

themethodusedbytheoriginalVEPsapplication

istheuseoftheWEBGLspecificationwhichallows

interactionwith3Dcontentinthewebbrowser

withouttheneedforuserstoinstallanyadditional

software.Thescenecompileralsogivesmore

scopeforaddingsurfacefeaturessuchasroadsand

pavementsintheterrainmodelandthendynamically

manipulatingthosefeaturesusingscriptsinaHTML

webpage.

Technical summary

InkGISisacloudbaseGeographicInformation

System(GIS)thatisadatabaseapplicationwhich

storesgeospatialfeaturessuchaspointslines

andpolygonsaswellastheirassociatedtextual

andnumericattributes.FeaturesstoredinaGIS

formatcanthenbeaccessedwithspatialqueries

suchas“whereisthenearest?”.Itrunswithinaweb

browserdevelopedusingHTML5andJavascript.

Thegeospatialdata(2Dline,pointsandpolygons)is

storedusingtheopensourcedatabaseMySQLusing

anApache/PHPwebserver.

TheVRtool-kitisusedtocreateneighbourhood

modelsbydrawingandthenextrudinglinesalong

thesurveytoincisethemintoanexistingterrain

model.X3Dwereplacedonthesurfacebymarking

thelocationsonaGISlayer.Trees,bushes,shelters

andstreetfurnitureweremadeusingthefree

opensourceBlendermodeler(www.blender.org).

Housing(three-dimensionalmodels)wereproduced

usingtoolswhichgeneratebuildinggeometries

algorithmicallyfromfootprintpolygons.

The3DformatssupportedareX3DandWebGL

whicharenativelysupportedinFirefox,Chrome,

Safari,Opera.IE8&IE9aresupportedusingInstant

ThetoolcreatedintheSNACCprojectisaGISbased

visualisationcapableofcreatinginteractiveand

accurateaspectsofsmallersectionsof3Durban

environmentsthatcanbeaccessed,analysedand

exploredbymultipleuserssimultaneouslyusinga

Webbrowser.

TheaimoftheSNACCvisualisationwasto

developacommonandtransferablewebbased

visualisationsystemthatenablespeopletoview

andanalyseproposedadaptationoptionsinorder

tounderstandtheireffectsontheexistinghousing

andneighbourhoodandmakedecisionsabout

theiracceptability.Thesystemhasthepotential

toimprovefuturepublicparticipationbymaking

informationaboutpotentialadaptationoptionsmore

accessibleandeasiertounderstandforthegeneral

public.

Theadoptedapproachwastouseaninteractive

three-dimensional(3D)virtualreality(VR)

visualisationtoenabletheviewertograsphighly

complexinformationwithouttheneedfortraining.

Thiswaytheusercanexperienceboththepotential

adaptationsandassesstheiracceptabilityandvisual

impactontheexistingenvironment.Moreover,since

thesystemisassociatedwithGISmaps,itallows

foranaccurateunderstandingoftheextentofthe

changesastheyhavebeenrecordedandentered

usingaGISdatabase.

VEPs and SNACC tool

TheSNACCprojectvisualisationofclimate

changeadaptationoptionsisbasedontheVEPS

(VirtualEnvironmentalPlanningSystem),which

wasanInterregIIIBfundedEuropeanproject.This

systemhasbeencustomisedandadaptedforthe

visualisationofsuburbanadaptations.Themain

Developing a computer visualisation of adapted suburbs

VEPs SNACC

LiDARdata

Aerialphotography

VRMLformat

DetailedCADand3DMaxmodels

Additionalsoftware

Personalcomputerusers

WebGISsystem(INK)

MastermapandDTMdata

X3DformatofVirtualreality

Photorealistic,interactivemodels

Opensourcesoftware

Awebsite

Figure C1ThedifferencesbetweenVEPsandtheSNACCprojectvisualisation

Appendix C:

96

Reality,anopensourceX3Dplug-indevelopedatthe

FraunhoferInstitute.

RenderingofX3Dwithinthebrowserisdoneusing

X3DOM(http://www.x3dom.org).Thishasbeen

developedattheFraunhoferinstituteandisfreely

availableasopensource),aJavascriptlibraryfor

browsingX3Dcontentinbrowserswhichsupport

WEBGL(http://www.khronos.org/webg).Browsers

currentlysupportingWEBGLareChrome16+and

Firefox10+.

Key Findings

Aninitialpilotstudywasusedtogatherthefeedback

fromseveralgroupsofstakeholdersinordertomeet

theirneedsandstimulatetheirengagementinthe

researchprocess.Theresultofthisprocesswas

stakeholderdrivenoptimisationofthefinalsystem.

Basedonanalysisoftheoutcomesfromthepilot

studydetailedvirtualneighbourhoodenvironments

withinformationsuchastypesofpaving,species

oftreesandshrubswerecreatedforthreecase

studyareas.Eachcasestudyvisualisationalso

includedpotentialchangestohouseelevations,

whichweremoredesirablethansketchy,simplified

imagesofadaptations.Althoughitisrecognised

thatvisualisationoptimisedforthewebtendsto

offerlowerlevelsofdetailthanCADgenerated3D

models,inthisinvestigationanattempthasbeen

madetoachievethehighestpossiblelevelofdetail

inx3denvironmentssothatendorsabledecisions

areenhancedbyphoto-realismanditispossible

toassessarangeofpotentialinterpretationsby

stakeholders.

Forthetwocasestudies(BotleyinOxfordand

StockportinManchester)aninvestigationwas

conductedtoexplorepublicperceptionsand

usefulnessofthistypeofvisualisation.Short

questionnairesusingLiker-likeseven-pointscales

wereemployedtodeterminewhetherphotorealistic

virtualrealityrepresentationsareregardedas

accuratemeansofcommunicatingneighbourhood

adaptationsandtoassesstheusefulnessofthis

toolintheconsultationprocess.Questionnaire

responseswereanalysedusingtheSPSSsoftware

package.

Theresponsesrevealedstrongpreferencesfor

more,ratherthanless,informationaboutthe

adaptations.Thisisprimarilybecausepeopleneed

informationtomakeinformeddecisionsabout

investmentsintheirhomesandneighbourhoods.

Membersofthepublicalsoprefertounderstand

thepossibleextentofchanges,andhavesome

seriousconcernsabouttheimpactofadaptation

options.Overall,themajorityofparticipantswere

‘fairlysatisfied’withthevisualisationasatooland

itsabilitytoshowtheproposedchangestoexisting

neighbourhoods.

Figure C2 VirtualenvironmentofoneoftheBristol

casestudies,showinganeighbourhoodbeforeandafter

adaptation.Modelsreproducedunderthetermsofthe

Contractor’sLicencefortheUseofOrdnanceSurvey

DatabetweenUWE,BristolandBristolCityCouncil,Maps

©CrownCopyright/databaseright2012.AnOrdnance

Survey/EDINAsuppliedservice

97

thefuturerisksofclimatechange.TheFiguredoes

notprovideadefinitivelistforadaptingallsuburbs,

butreflectsoptionswitharangeofimpacts,costs

andbenefitsappropriatefortheSNACCstudy.Only

adaptationswhichofferedeitheraneutralorpositive

impactontheproductionofgreenhousegaseswere

considered.

FigureD1belowdetailsthemasterlistofadaptations

whichwereidentifiedasappropriateforthe

neighbourhoodtypesselectedinthecasestudies.

Notalloftheadaptationswereappropriateforallof

thesuburbs,buteachoftheadaptationspresented

belowareappropriateforatleastoneofthem.

Theoptionswerechosentoaddresseither,the

mitigationoffutureclimatechange,oradaptationto

Potential adaptation and mitigation options to be tested in SNACC

Elementofbuilt

environment

beingadapted

MeasuresforAdapting

toimpactsfrom,and

mitigatingfutureclimate

change

Climaticchangethat

theadaptationis

respondingto

Reduceclimatechange?

How

Effectthattheadaptationhas

Houseandgarden(individualdwellings)

WALLS Addexternalshutters,

shadesorcanopiesto

walls

Heat,increased

solarradiationonthe

surface

Yes,reducespotential

coolingloads

Increasesshadingandcools

propertiesinsideandout

Increasewallalbedo:

applyhighlyreflective

materialorcoatingto

reducesolarabsorption

Heat,increased

solarradiationonthe

surface

Yes,hasbeenfound

toreducelocalisedair

temperatureswhen

undertakenacross

neighbourhoods

Reducessolarabsorption

tocoolinternalandexternal

areas

Introducethermalmass:

e.g.interiorwalls1)

concreteblockswith

plasterfinish2)exposed

stoneorconcrete

Heat,overheatingin

buildingsleadingto

possibleincreased

energyuse

Yes,thermalmass

appropriatelyplacedcan

bothreduceheating

energyuseandcooling

energyuse.Thermalmass,

inappropriatelyplacedcan

haveanadverseimpact

Thisisachievedthrough

theabilityofthermalmass,

inheavyweightfloorsand

walls,toabsorbinternal

heatgainsduringhot

weather,helpingstabilise

theinternaltemperature

andreducecoolingdemand.

Theabsorbedheatmust

bereleasedandshouldbe

ventilatedatnight.

Installverticalgreenery

andplanting

Heat Yes Cancoolthebuilding

insideandimproveair

quality.Inwarmerweather,

greenwallsactlikegreen

roofsbyreducingthe

surfacetemperatureofa

conventionalwallthrough

evapotranspirationand

shading.Wallsthatuse

irrigationandhydroponic

techniquesprovideadditional

coolingthroughevaporation.

Airbrickcovers/

automaticairbrick

covers(smartairbrick)

Flood None Preventswateringressduring

flooding

Appendix D:

98

Externalwallweather

proofing

1)thermallyefficient

externalrenders

2)rubbertanking

3)waterproofrender

4)Repointbrickworkon

externalwalls.

Internalwalls

5)sand/cementrender

mixwithawaterproof

additive

6)drylineinternalwalls

7)replacetimberstud

walls,whichactasa

waterreservoirwith

masonry/blockwork

8)internallyand

externally:apply

specialfinishestowalls

(anticorrosionprimers,

polyurethanetopcoats)

Flood,storms,extreme

weather

Yes,thermalefficiency

producedfrominternal

andexternalrenders

reducesenergy

reduction

Protectswallsfrom

stormdamage,avoids

waterpenetrationand

damagetomortarand

brickwork.

Floodresistantcavityfill

insulation

Storms,flood Yes,reducesbuilding's

thermalconductivity

reducingenergy

demand

Waterresistant:

nonwaterresistant

insulationwouldbe

damagedinafloodand

needreplacement

Elevateexternaldoors,

Fitrisinghingessodoors

canberemoved

Floodresistanceand

resilience

No Stopswateringress

initially:removing

internaldoorsinthe

eventoffloodingress

increasesresilience.

Flashflooddoors,flood

gates

Floodresistanceand

resilience

No Stopswateringress

ROOF Addgreen/brownroof

toregulatetemperature

Heat:(couldalsoslow

waterrunoffandreduce

floodingifdonewith

groupsofproperties

cumulatively,notin

isolation)

Yes Increaseslocalised

cooling,reducesrain

waterrunoff.Increases

CO2absorptionand

evapotranspirationto

reduceurbanheatisland

(UHI).

Regulatestemperature

inbuilding.Reduces

solarheatgainin

buildings(reducedheat

penetrationinbuildings).

Increaseroofalbedo:

applyhighlyreflective

materialorcoatingto

reducesolarabsorption

Heat,Increasedsolar

radiationonthesurface

Yes,hasbeenfound

toreducelocalisedair

temperatureswhen

undertakenacross

neighbourhoods

Reducessolar

absorptiontocool

internalandexternal

areas.

99

Insulateroof Heat(andcold) Yes,reducesbuilding's

thermalconductivity

reducingenergy

demand

Improvesthermal

performance:reduces

heatloss,cancontribute

tooverheating

mitigationinsummer

andreduceenergybills

Installphotovoltaic/solar

thermalpanels(water

heating)

Energy,increasedsolar


Yes Futureproofing,to

providesustainable

renewableenergy

Extendedeaves Increasedrainfalland

extremeweather

None:some(slight

potentialwherecooling

energyisusedand

extendedeavesare

abletoprovidesome

shading)

Limitsraincontactwith

externalwallsurfaces.

Canalsobesourceof

shading.

WINDOWS Installwindowsthatlock

opentoaidventilation

Heat Yes,replaces

mechanicalventilation

Allowsuser:controlled

naturalventilation

Low:e-solarcontrol

glazing,doubleortriple

pane

Heat,increasedsolar


Yes,reducesheat

demandinwinter

Reducesheatloss

duringthewinterand

overheatinginthe

summer.Greaternoise

reductionandbetter

heatabsorption

Install solar shading:

Horizontalorvertical

externalshading

Shutters

Interpaneshading

Solarfilm

Manufacturedshading

(solarcontrolforinterior

orexterior:blinds,

shutters,awnings,

louveredoverhangs,

etc.)(possible

opportunitytointegrate

solarrenewables)

Heat,increasedsolar



coolingloads

Mitigatesoverheating

potential

FLOORS Introducethermal

mass:e.g.floors1)tiling

overconcretefloor

withinsulationbelow,

2)exposedstoneor

concrete

Heat,overheatingin

buildingsleadingto

possibleincreased

energyuse

Yes,thermalmass

appropriatelyplacedcan

bothreduceheating

energyuseandcooling

energyuse.Thermal

mass,inappropriately

placedcanhavean

adverseimpact

Thisisachievedthrough

theabilityofthermal

mass,inheavyweight

floorsandwalls,to

absorbinternalheat

gainsduringhot

weather,helping

stabilisetheinternal

temperatureandreduce

coolingdemand.The

absorbedheatmustbe

releasedandshouldbe

ventilatedatnight.

100

Treatfloorsforflooding:

e.g.sealfloors.Convert

suspendedfloorsto

solidfloorse.g.with

hardnonporousflooring

(concrete/tiles)

Flooding None:some(thermal

masscouldbe

incorporatedhere)

Reducestheimpactof

flooding

HEATING,COOLING,

POWER,VENTILATION

SYSTEMSand

APPLIANCES

Installheatpumps Heat(andcold)

Potentialtoreduces

winterheatingenergy

requirement

Yes,potentially Potentialtocoolthe

home(principlecanbe

usedwithground,air

andwater)

Installtricklevents Heat(reduceinternal

heatandhumidity)

Yes,reduces

potentialcoolingand

dehumidificationloads

Reduceshumidityinthe

home,mitigatingmould

growth

Elevateelectrical

sockets/wiring,

meteringandboiler

Flood No Reducestheimpactand

costofflooding

WATERandGARDEN Planttreeswithlarge

canopies:usingcaution

nottocompromise

buildingstability

Heat,increasedsolar



coolingloads

Providesshadingtocool

thegardenandadjacent

house

Installrainwater

harvestinginthegarden

Reducedsummer

rainfall

No Makesefficientuseofa

limitedresource

Droughtresistantplants Reducedsummer

rainfall

No Adding10%greenspace

(inacentralarea)kept

temperaturesator

below1961:90baseline

(ASCCUE,2012)

Growfood Summertime

temperatureincrease

andSummertime

meanprecipitation

reduction(waterstress

butincreasedgrowing

season)

Yes,reducescarbon

footprintoffood

Maximisesthebenefitof

longergrowingseason

andreducesfoodmiles.

Remove/reduce

nonporousgarden

surfaces.Replace

withanalternative:

grass-reinforcement

concreteorplastic

mesh,gravel,brick(with

drainagechannels),

cellularpaving,orlawn

orvegetableplots

Wintermean

precipitationincrease

:Increasedflood

vulnerabilityandwater

ingressfordwellings

No Theuseofporous

surfacesqualifyaspart

ofSUDS.Theprinciple

istomimicnatural

drainage,reduceflow

fromhardimpermeable

surfacesandreduce

floodrisk.

101

NEIGHBOURHOODADAPTATIONS;street,parks,andpublicspaceandamenities

Measures for

Adapting to

impacts from,

and mitigating

future climate

change

Climatic

change that

the adaptation

is responding

to

Climate

change hazard

Climatic

change impact

Direct climate

change

mitigation?

Effect that the

adaptation

has

How effective

is the

measure?

Addnewgreen

space:Plant

treeswith

largecanopies

(onstreetsand

inpublicopen

spaces)

HEAT Summertime

temperature

increaseand

measurable

heatwave

projections

Overheating

inbuildings,

highurban

temperatures

leadingto

possible

increased

energyuse

YES Provides

shadingfrom

sun

Aparkwill

coolthearea

equivalent

tothesize

ofthepark

surrounding

it.(ASCCUE,

2012)

Plantheat,

droughtand

pollution

tolerantplants

HEAT Summertime

temperature

increaseand

measurable

heatwave

projections

Overheating

inbuildings,

highurban

temperatures

leadingto

possible

increased

energyuse

YES Provides

attractiveand

functional

greenery

eveninhotter

weather,which

givesshade

Provides

addedcooling

inhotter

weather

(difficultto

quantify

generically)

Plantheat,

droughtand

pollution

tolerantplants

DROUGHT Summertime

mean

precipitation

reduction

Wintertime

mean

precipitation

increase

Waterstress

and/ordrought

Increased

flood

vulnerability

andwater

ingressfor

dwellings

YES Provides

attractiveand

functional

greenery

thatuses

lesswater,

andstabilises

soils.Whilst

retainingwater

andslowing

runoffinflood

conditions.

Minimises

plants’

exposure

towindsto

reducethe

amountof

waterlost

throughthe

plantleaves

andthrough

evaporation

fromthesoil.

Modelling

forGreater

Manchester

showedthata

10%increase

ingreencover

canresultina

5%reduction

insurface

waterrun-off

(ASCCUE,

2012).

102

Plantheat,

droughtand

pollution

tolerantplants

AIR

POLLUTION

Summertime

mean

precipitation

reduction

Increaseddust

pollution

YES Toprovide

attractiveand

functional

greenerythat

canwithstand

increasesin

aitpollution

(photochemical

smogand

VOCS)

Inurbanareaswith

100%treecover(i.e.,

contiguousforest

stands),shortterm

improvementsinair

quality(onehour)from

pollutionremovalby

treeswereashighas

15%forozone,14%for

sulphurdioxide,13%

forparticulatematter,

8%fornitrogendioxide,

and0.05%forcarbon

monoxide(Nowak,2006).

Addgreenery:

tofaçades,

walls

HEAT Summertime

temperature

increaseand

measurable

heatwave

projections

Overheating

inbuildings,

highurban

temperatures

leadingto

possible

increased

energyuse

YES Provides

shadingfrom

sun

Aparkwillcoolthearea

equivalenttothesizeof

theparksurroundingit.

(ASCCUE,2012)

Greenwalls

include:

HEAT Summertime

temperature

increaseand

measurable

heatwave

projections

Overheating

inbuildings,

highurban

temperatures

leadingto

possible

increased

energyuse

YES Provides

attractiveand

functional

greenery

eveninhotter

weather,which

givesshade

Providesaddedcoolingin

hotterweather(difficult

toquantifygenerically)

Greenfacades,

potswithvines

ontrellises

DROUGHT Summertime

mean

precipitation

reduction

Wintertime

mean

precipitation

increase

Waterstress

and/ordrought

Increased

flood

vulnerability

andwater

ingressfor

dwellings

YES Provides

attractiveand

functional

greenerythat

useslesswater,

andstabilises

soils.Whilst

retainingwater

andslowing

runoffinflood

conditions.

Minimisesplants’

exposuretowindsto

reducetheamountof

waterlostthroughthe

plantleavesandthrough

evaporationfromthesoil.

ModellingforGreater

Manchestershowedthat

a10%increaseingreen

covercanresultina5%

reductioninsurface

waterrun-off(ASCCUE,

2012).Enhance

vegetation

ifthesoil

hasgood

infiltration

qualities

HEAVYRAIN

andFLOODS

Wintertime

mean

precipitation

increase

Increased

flood

vulnerability

andwater

ingressfor

buildings

YES Provides

cooling,

porosity,links

forbiodiversity

103

Installblue

infrastructure:

lakes,ponds,

andotherwater

landscape

features

HEAT Summertime

temperature

increaseand

measurable

heatwave

projections

Overheating

inbuildings

further

increasedby

urbanheat

islandeffects

NO Helps

reduceair

temperaturein

neighbourhood

Toprovidelocalised

cooling

Miniflood

defence:

toprotect

detached

dwellingor

groupof

dwellingsina

neighbourhood.

Floodbarrier

pushedupwith

saturationof

theground(DP)

FLOOD Wintertime

mean

precipitation

increase

Increased

flood

vulnerability

andwater

ingressfor

buildings

NO Springdam

http://www.

tiltdam.co.uk/

Concepts.

aspx.Gravity

poweredinsitu

flooddefence,

thatactsas

awalkway,

pathwayand

tiltsunderflood

conditionsto

formabarrier

Aparkwillcoolthearea

equivalenttothesizeof

theparksurroundingit.

(ASCCUE,2012)

Construct

sustainable

urbandrainage

systems(SUDS)

(including

capacityfor

waterstorage

areasif

appropriate)

HEAVY RAIN

and FLOOD

Wintertime

mean

precipitation

increase

Increased

flood

vulnerability

andwater

ingressfor

buildings

NO Ensuresthat

increased

runoffcanbe

managed.

Useofswales,infiltration,

detentionandretention

pondsinparksis

effective.Runningcosts

arelow,particularlyafter

theinitialgrowingperiod

(ASCCUE,2012).

DROUGHT Summertime

mean

precipitation

reduction

Waterstress

and/ordrought

NO Enhances

localwater

catchmentfor

reuse

Effectiveinsuburban

areas,givensuitableland

usepatterns,andhavean

increasedamenityand

biodiversityvalue

HEAT Summertime

temperature

increaseand

measurable

heatwave

projections

Overheating

inbuildings

further

increasedby

urbanheat

islandeffects

NO Provideslocal

cooling(for

peopleand

surroundingair

temperatures)

104

HEAVY Summertime

mean

precipitation

reduction

Increaseddust

pollution

YES Toprovide

attractiveand

functional

greenerythat

canwithstand

increasesin

airpollution

(photochemical

smogand

VOCS)

Addseatingin

shadedareas,

onstreets

andinpublic

spaces

HEAT Summertime

temperature

increaseand

measurable

heatwave

projections

Building

overheating

insummer

leadingto

discomfort,ill

health

NO Allowfor

increaseduse

ofoutdoor

space,andadds

tosocialcapital

Identifyand

allocate

appropriate

buildingsas

‘community

coolrooms’

HEAT WAVES Summertime

temperature

increaseand

measurable

heatwave

projections

Overheating

inbuildings

further

increasedby

urbanheat

islandeffects

NO Provides

respitefrom

extremeheat,

particularlyfor

olderresidents

orthosewith

‘hot’homesand

littleoutdoor

space

UsedeffectivelyinSouthern

Europeinheatwaves,for

vulnerablegroups.

Replace

pavements

androadswith

porous,‘cool’

materials

HEAT and

INCREASED

RAIN AND

STORMS

Wintertime

mean

precipitation

increase

Increased

flood

vulnerability

andwater

ingressfor

buildings

YES Cools

neighbourhood

andoffers

drainageto

avoidflooding

Improvedalbedo:binderor

aggregateofdifferentcolour;

coatingthepavementwith

asealorsurfaceofalighter

colour.

Poroustypesletwater

percolatethroughand

evaporationtotakeplace.

Permeablesurfacescanbe

moreconducivetocooling

fromconvectiveairflow.

Bothasphaltandconcrete

pavementscanbebuiltwith

poroussurfaces,andunbound

surfaces(e.g.,grass,gravel)

canbeconstructedusinggrids

forreinforcement.

Pigmentsandsealstochange

thecolourofanasphalt

surfacetomakeitlighter.

Becauseconcretepavements

arealreadylightcoloured,

pigmentsareunlikelyto

improvetheircoolness.

Whitetoppingconsistsofa

concretepavementapplied

overanexistingasphalt

pavementasaformof

maintenanceorresurfacing.

105

Useenergy

efficientstreet

lightingand/or

switchstreet

lightsofffor

periodsofthe

night

MITIGATION Peak

summertime

temperature

increase

Higher

temperatures

cause

increased

coolingload

increases

energy

demandand

energypoverty

YES Savesenergy Canreducecarbon

emissionsby55%

andannualenergy

consumptionby56%.

LEDscanbedimmed,

reducingunnecessary

useofenergyduringnon-

peaktimesbyupto40%.

107

Appendix E

Synergies and conflicts between adaptation and mitigation measures

Adaptation

measurePrimaryintent Synergies Inresponseto: Conflicts Inresponseto:

Neighbourhood/Gardenscaleimplementation

Plantingtrees Cooling

Neighbourhood

/garden

(contributesto

UHIreduction)

Coolingeffect

extendsonto/into

individualhomes

Increased

temperatureand

solarinsolation

Reductionof

solargainfor

homesinwinter

(varieswith

species)

UKremains

heating

dominated

climate

Speciesplanted

currentlymay

notbedrought

tolerantorable

tocopewitha

changedclimate

Increased

temperature,

solarinsolation

andreduced

summer

precipitation

(drought

conditions)

Plantinglocation

matters:roots

mayexacerbate

subsidenceof

homes

Seasonal

precipitation

extremes,

increased

temperatureand

solarirradiation

Fallentrees

duetowindor

lightningduring

stormscan

damagehomes

Typicalrisk:

‘storminess’,wind

insomeareasare

alreadyhigh

Highalbedo

SUDS

Localisedcooling

–minimisesthe

urbanheatisland

effect

Coolingeffect

extendsinto

homes

Increased

temperatureand

solarinsolation

Rainwater

infiltration

Reducetherisk

oflocalwater

pollution

Increasedwinter

precipitation

Reducetherisk

ofpoolingand

pluvialflooding

Increasedwinter

precipitation

Plannedflood

defences,e.g.

swales

Eliminateor

reducefloodrisk

Protecthomes

fromflooding

Increasedwinter

precipitation

Improve

biodiversity

Swalesorother

plannedflood

zonescould

providehabitats

formosquitoes

Increased

temperatures,

flashflooding

108

Adaptation


Homescaleimplementation

Fixedshadingvs.

useroperated

shading

Reducesolargain

enteringhome

-Numerous

simulations

haveshownthat

shadingisin

manycasesthe

mosteffective

measureto

reducetheriskof

overheatinginthe

home*

Increased

temperatureand

solarinsolation

Fixedshading,

thoughdesigned

foroptimal

seasonalsolar

anglescanto

somedegree

stillreduce

winter,springand

autumnsolargain

UKremains

heating

dominated

climate

Someshading

approachescan

havethenegative

impactof

reduceddaylight

inthehome,

particularlyfixed

shadingduring

thewinter

Increased

temperature,

solarinsolation

andreduced

summer

precipitation

(drought

conditions)

Resortingto

artificiallighting

willincrease

energyuseand

contributeto

internalheat

gains

Summer:

Increased

temperatureand

solarinsolation

Plantinglocation

matters:roots

mayexacerbate

subsidenceof

homes

Seasonal

precipitation

extremes,

increased

temperatureand

solarirradiation

Winter:

Decreasedsolar

insolation

Fallentrees

duetowindor

lightningduring

stormscan

damagehomes

Typicalrisk:

‘storminess’,wind

insomeareasare

alreadyhigh

Natural

ventilation

Ventilation,

particularlynight

ventilationcan

beeffectiveas

projectedbya

majorityofthe

21stcentury*

Ventilation,

particularlynight

ventilationcan

beproblematic

withregardto

occupantsafety,

airqualityand

agoodnight’s

sleep–where

homesareinhigh

trafficareasor

onbusyroads,

nexttopubs,etc.,

airandsound

pollutioncanbe

anissue

Increased

temperature

109

Adaptation



Increased

insulation

standards

Reduceheating

energydemand

UKremains

heating

dominated

climate

Themitigation

measurewiththe

mostimpactcan

haveunintended

consequences

dependingon

locationinthe

home–internal

wallinsulationand

sometimescavity

wallinsulationwas

foundtoincrease

theoverheating

potentialin

anumberof

homes*

Increased

temperatureand

solarinsolation

Coolwallsand

roof(highalbedo

fabricsurfaces)

Reducesolar

gainentering

homethrough

conduction

Combined

coolingeffectof

manyhomescan

reduceUHI

Increased

temperatureand

solarinsolation

Reductionof

solargainonroof

andwallsinwinter

UKremains

heating

dominated

climate

Replacing

timberfloors

withorexposing

(re-finishing)

concrete

floorsforflood

resilience

Easypost-minor

floodingclean-up

Provideseffective

thermalmass

Increasesummer

temperatures

Rainwater

harvesting

Reducepotable

waterdemand

inthehomeand

garden

Reduce

rainwaterrunoff

ingardenand

neighbourhood–

reducefloodrisk

Increasedwinter

precipitation

Standingwater

inwaterbutts

(forexample)

couldprovide

conditions

formosquito

breeding

Increased

summer

temperaturesand

milderwinters

Greenroofsand

walls

Coolinghomes Canreduce

rainwaterrunoff

andcreate

localizedcooling,

reducingtheUHI

Reducespace

heatingdemand

inwinter

(dependenton

thermalinsulation

ofsystem)

Increased

temperatureand

solarinsolation

Increasedwinter

precipitation

UKremains

heating

dominated

climate

Somegreen

coveronwallscan

bedetrimental

tothestructural

andaesthetic

qualityofthe

wallsofhomes,

e.g.leadingto

moistureingress

(particularly

wherewalls

arealready

damaged).

However,this

problemcanbe

avoidedrelatively

easily

Increasedwinter

precipitation

110

Adaptation



Floodgates,

skirts,etc.

Homelevelflood

resistance

Increasedwinter

precipitation

Individualhome

resistanceto

flooding,evenon

acollectivelevel,

hasthepotential

toexacerbate

theimpact

elsewhere.An

approachtoflood

resistancemust

beconsideredat

largescale.

Increasedwinter

precipitation

*GuptaandGregg(2012)

111

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