NSF - CRESTCenter for the Integrated Study of Coastal Ecosystem Processes and Dynamics in the

Mid-Atlantic Region

Sub – Theme #1Land Use and Climate Variability:

Effects on Nutrient Dynamics in the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Watersheds

Eric B. May, Joseph Okoh, Ali Ishaque, Albert Chi, Uche Udeochu, Nianhong Chen and Tracie

BishopTeam Members

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Goal and Objectives• To monitor and model spatial patterns in land use, precipitation,

subsurface groundwater flow, and stream discharge, and examine their effects on water quality and nutrient dynamics in the shared coastal bays of Delaware, Maryland and Virginia

• Objectives– 1. Analyze land use and land cover data for the coastal bays and

compare them to historical data– 2. Determine the spatio-temporal patterns in water quality and

nutrients in the coastal bays– 3. Evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in precipitation, sub-surface

water movement, and riverine discharge into the coastal bays in relation to the El Nino Southern Oscillation

– 4. Develop and validate empirical models and algorithms for predicting spatial nutrient dynamics in the coastal bays as a function of climate variability using historical and measured data generated from objectives 1 through 3

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Objective 1Analyze land use and land cover data for the coastal

bays and compare them to historical data

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Available DataAvailable Data

• Land Cover 1992Land Cover 1992• Land Cover 2001Land Cover 2001• Impervious Surface 2001Impervious Surface 2001• Tree Canopy 2001Tree Canopy 2001• MRLC - MRLC - NLCD 1992-2001 Retrofit Change NLCD 1992-2001 Retrofit Change

ProductProduct• Gap Analysis Land Cover DataGap Analysis Land Cover Data

Snapshots of Snapshots of NLCD 1992-2001 Retrofit NLCD 1992-2001 Retrofit Change Product Change Product from websitefrom website

Available Image DataAvailable Image Data

• OrthoimageryOrthoimagery– True Color Image 2004True Color Image 2004– True Color Image 2007True Color Image 2007

• USGS Elevation DataUSGS Elevation Data– NED 1, NED 1/3, NED 1/9 –Not Available for VANED 1, NED 1/3, NED 1/9 –Not Available for VA– Lidar – Not Available for VALidar – Not Available for VA

• EPA BASINSEPA BASINS

NLCD 1992-2001 Anderson Level I Cross-walk Table.

Objective 2Determine the spatio-temporal patterns in water

quality and nutrients in the coastal bays

Assawoman BaySt. M artins River

Isle of Wight Bay

Sinepuxent Bay

Chincoteague Bay

Newport Bay

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Objective 2: Data Sources• Historical

– Maryland Department of Natural Resources• Ambient water quality data collected with trawl surveys• Ambient water quality data collected with plankton surveys

– US National Park Service • Ambient water quality parameters• Nutrients

– NOAA National Weather Service• Weather data

– US Coast Guard (Ocean City Station)• Weather data

Some of the data sets generated reflect 20 to 30 years of data collection

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Assawoman BaySt. M artins River

Isle of Wight Bay

Sinepuxent Bay

Chincoteague Bay

Newport Bay

Objective 2: New Monitoring Data•Monitoring will be

conducted at a sub-set of pre-existing sites established by MDNR and NPS•Monitoring will include:

–Metals–Pharmaceutical compounds–Nutrients

•The uniqueness of the program lies in:– Correlation of historical data

with climatic data–Correlation of historical data

with land use patterns as they have changed through time

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Assawoman BaySt. Martins River

Isle of Wight Bay

Sinepuxent Bay

Chincoteague Bay

Newport Bay

Proposed Sites For Monitoring and Ecosystem Studies•Sites will be at pre-existing

locations established by MDNR and NPS as,•These sites have significant

historical data associated with them• A minimum of 12 sites are

considered

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Monitoring and Ecosystem StudiesAt each of the sites shown, samples will be taken for the following:–Ambient Water Quality (D.O., Temperature, pH, Salinity, Conductivity, Turbidity, Chlorophyll a)–Nutrients (Nitrogen, Phosphorus)– Metals (Routinely for water, twice during the project for sediments)– Plankton (Zoo and Phyto)– Fish– MacroalgaeThis is a unique feature that the collective set of samples are to be taken at the same locations arround the same time

Assawoman BaySt. Martins River

Isle of Wight Bay

Sinepuxent Bay

Chincoteague Bay

Newport Bay

Monitoring For Nutrients and Other Variables•Under Consideration are:

–Total Nitrogen–Dissolved Organic and Inorganic

Nitrogen–Total Organic and Inorganic Nitrogen– Particulate Nitrogen–Ammonia, Nitrite, Nitrate and Urea– Dissolved Organic and Inorganic

Phosphorus–Organic and Inorganic Phosphorus– Particulate PhosphorusIn addition sampling will be for:–Dissolved Organic Carbon–Total Organic Carbon– Particulate Carbon– Total Suspended Solids

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Assawoman BaySt. Martins River

Isle of Wight Bay

Sinepuxent Bay

Chincoteague Bay

Newport Bay

Monitoring For Pharmaceuticals•A selected set of sites will

be sampled reflecting discharges from wastewater plants and the St. Martins River•Pharmaceuticals of interest

are: Bisphenol A, Triclosan and Phthalate esters•They are introduced on a

continual basis to the aquatic environment as a complex mixture mostly via waste water treatment systems.

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Assawoman BaySt. Martins River

Isle of Wight Bay

Sinepuxent Bay

Chincoteague Bay

Newport Bay

Monitoring For Metals

•Metals will be routinely sampled for in the water as part of the monitoring program

•Sediment concentrations of metals will be analyzed in year 1 and in year 4 of the project to see if any significant change occurs over the project period

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Objective 3

Evaluate spatial and temporal patterns in precipitation, sub-surface water movement,

and riverine discharge into the coastal bays in relation to climatic factors

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Surface and Riverine Flow

Subsurface Flow

Precipitation

For Nutrients and Flow Dynamics

• Nutrients enter the system by:–Surface/Riverine–Subsurface–Atmospheric Deposition

•Atmospheric deposition will be monitored at selected western shore locations (3 are proposed) and will be for both wet and dry deposition

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Surface and Riverine Flow

Subsurface Flow

Atmospheric Deposition

Surface Runoff

• Surface runoff will be measured following rain events• Runoff boxes will be placed

at 8 selected locations on the western shore and 2 on the western shore of Assateague Island• Prior to rain events

collection containers will be emptied and following rain events volume measured

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Sub-Surface Runoff

• At the same sites as the runoff boxes, piezometers will be placed in the ground to determine lateral subsurface flow• Each peizometer is a 2 inch

perforated PVC pipe of sufficient length to reach the mean low water table mark• Changes in water level in each

succeeding peizometer provides the data required to calculate lateral water movement

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Low Mean Water Table Level

A

B

C

Stream Flow

• Some information on stream flows is available–Base flow information on some tributaries–USGS gauges in two streams

• The current track is to measure advective flow across the mouth of each of the major tributaries entering into the coastal bays–Flow rates for each tributary

• Base flow• Post rainfall event flow

–Using the USGS stream gauges correlate rainfall with surface and subsurface flow and in turn relate that to advective flow at the mouth of the tributaries

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Lets Hope None of This Happens

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Objective 4

Develop and validate empirical models and algorithms for predicting spatial nutrient dynamics in the coastal bays as a function of climate variability using historic

and measured data generated from objectives 1 through 3

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Overview of Model Components and Interactions

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Climate Weather

Physical

Nutrient Dynamics Ecological

Processes

Aerial

Land Use

Inputs (Land Use, Climate and Weather)

• Historical Data– Weather (US CG; NOAA)– Climate (ENSO and NAO)– Land Use

• Real Time Data (Weather and Physical)–Surface and Subsurface flow– Stream flow–Nutrient analyses of flow water is being considered

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Climate Weather

Physical

Land Use

Linking Land Use, Physical and Aerial to Nutrient Dynamics

• Physical movement of water into the watershed either through stream, subsurface of surface inputs should result in changes in the nutrients in the system which is affected by land use• This along with aerial deposition

should provide a model linking nutrient dynamics to input sources and back to climate and weather

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Physical

Nutrient Dynamics

Aerial

Land Use

Nutrients and Ecosystem• With additional sampling associated with each site the data generated should be able to be used by the other teams in determining how fluxes in nutrients affect coastal lagoon ecosystems

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Nutrient Dynamics Ecological

Processes

Student Involvement• One Post-Doctoral Fellow• One Graduate Student• One Undergraduate Student• One High School Student

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Finish• It is the ultimate goal of this sub-theme to:

Develop a watershed model for the Maryland Coastal Bays

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