study on the relevance and impact of portugal’s waste ...€¦ · study on the eevance and act o...

Study on the Relevance and Impact of poRtugal’S WaSte SectoR on the peRSpectIve of a cIRculaR economy

executive SummaryMarch 2018

about thIS Study

TitleStudy on the Relevance and Impact of Portugal’s Waste Sector on the Perspective of a Circular Economy (Executive Summary)

PromoterSmart Waste Portugal Association

AuthorshipAugusto Mateus & Associados Consultancy Firm in Collaboration with 3Drivers

TeamScientific SupervisionAugusto Mateus

CoordinationHermano Rodrigues

ConsultantsFilipa LopesHelder OliveiraRui FerreiraSusana Gouveia

AdvisorsAntónio Lorena, 3DRIVERSAna Lopes, 3DRIVERS Jorge Portugal, COTEC

EditionMarch 2018

Study on the Relevance and Impact of Portugal’s Waste Sector on the Perspective of a Circular Economy · ExECutIvE SummaRy 3

Imperative of the circular economy

Despite having been responsible for the boost of

economic growth in the advanced economies during

the last decades, the linear production and consumption

model, based on “extracting, transforming, consuming

and discarding”, now shows growing symptoms of

environmental crisis. Within this model, the excessive

consumption of raw materials is accompanied by a high

production of waste: an annual volume of about 11 billion

tons of waste is generated worldwide, of which only 25%

is recovered and sent to the productive system.

The transition to the circular economy balances

economic development, by protecting resources and the

environment, based on industrial ecology and the three

pillars of sustainable development (economic, social and

environmental).

The growth of the economy’s circularity has many

potential benefits associated with it, including material

cost savings (and corresponding increase in resource

productivity), reduction of material price volatility,

greater security of resources supply, creation of new jobs

(through tertiary sector of the economy, by the increased

rental activities and resource-sharing services), as well

as reducing the environmental pressure of economic

activities.

The evolution to the circular economy will also

determine important widening and deepening

processes, with the appearance of new activities and

new business models and the progressive “closing” of

many value chains, setting new standards of economic

specialization.

›› Vision 2050 EcologicAl fooTPrinT

Num

ber o

f Ear

ths

2,3 Earths (BAU)

1,1 Earths (Vision 2050)

Carbon footprint Cropland Grazing land

Forest land Built-up land Fishing ground

Source: Adapted from WBCSD & BCSD Portugal (2010), Vision 2050 – The New Agenda for Companies

2,5

2,0

1,5

1,0

0,5

0

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

… The transition to the circular economy balances the economic development by protecting resources and the environment ...

4 Study on the Relevance and Impact of Portugal’s Waste Sector on the Perspective of a Circular Economy · ExECutIvE SummaRy

metabolism and circularity

After many years of stagnation, the resource productivity

started to increase in Portugal from 2008 onwards,

however there was a drop in 2014. In the past two years,

for which statistics are available, the resource productivity

has returned to increase, reaching 1.1 € per kg in 2016. In

the EU, the trend has been similar, but in absolute terms,

the resource productivity is substantially higher than the

national one.

According to the official statistics available (whose

accuracy is debatable), the national economy generated,

in 2016, about 14.8 million tons of waste: 4.9 million tons

of urban waste and 9.9 of sectoral waste . 71% of that

amount, equivalent to 10.6 million tons, were recovered

(energy, material, other forms of valorization).

Regarding sectoral waste, around 82% of the total

Portuguese current production (8.1 million tons) is

subject to recovery operations, in contrast with the 60%

of production recovered in 2008.

Concerning urban or similar waste, only 49% of the

total is subject to recovery, although the last decade was

characterized by a significant increase in recovery of waste

in Portugal (in 2004, only 34.8% of waste was recovered).

The selective collection, whether of paper/ paperboard,

plastic, metal and glass material or of biodegradable

municipal waste, despite having increased significantly

during the last decade and a half in Portugal, corresponds

to only 15,9% of the total urban waste produced.

With regard to the European context, each

Portuguese generated, on average, 474 kg of waste in

2016, while each European produced 481 kg.

In terms of landfilling, Portugal had a 32% rate

in 2014 against an average rate of 41% in the EU,

constituting a massive waste and, at the same time, a

huge missed opportunity.

Source: EY-AM&A, based on data from Statistics Portugal (INE)

Total de resíduos

Urbanos/Setoriais

Valorizados/Não-valorizados

Formas de valorização/Eliminação

14,8 milhões ton

67%Setoriais

33%Urbanos

55%

12%

17%

16%

Não valorizados

Outras formas de eliminação

Valorizados

Aterro

Não valorizados

Valorização energética

Valorizados

Valorização material eoutras formas de valorização

Total waste

Municipal/Sectoral

Recovery/Non-recovery

Forms of recovery/Elimination

14,8 million tonnes

67%Sectoral

33%Municipal

55%

12%

17%

16%

Non-RecoveredMunicipal Waste

Other forms of elimination

Recovered Municipal Waste

Land�ll

Non-recovered Sectoral Waste

Energy recovery

Recovered Sectoral Waste

Other forms of recovery

6%

8%

64%

23%

6%

8%

64%

23%

… Regarding sectoral waste, around 82% of the total Portuguese current production (8.1 million tons) is subject to recovery operations, in contrast with the 60% of production recovered in 2008 …

›› rEcoVErEd wAsTE ‘Vs’ non-rEcoVErEd wAsTE (%) | 2016


Relevance of the waste sector

In 2016, the waste sector in Portugal was made up of

2,542 entities, which employed around 25 thousand

workers and invoiced about €2.5b.

Excluding intermediate consumption, the national

waste sector generated an gross value added (gVA)

of €718m. From the investment point of view, the

sector accounted for approximately €99m of gfcf

(gross investment).

The direct relevance in the waste sector economy is

about 0.85% in terms of GVA, 0.73% of turnover, 0.68%

of employment and 0.62% in terms of investment.

Regarding indirect and induced effects (after

having adjusted the substitution effect promoted by

the introduction of by-products in the economy), it is

estimated that the activity of the waste sector generated,

in 2016, an additional production in the Portuguese

economy of around €3.6b, corresponding to a GVA

of €2b and around 43 thousand jobs, requiring for this

purpose an increase in imports of approximately €284m.

The waste sector thus presents a relevant capacity

for generating added value and spill-over effects on

the economy.

The waste collection activity has long been the

most relevant in the national waste sector.

The commercial balance of the national waste

sector is largely in surplus (€221m in 2016), with

the sub-sector of the recovery of materials playing

an important role for this achievement (€44m),

proving the ability of recovered materials to compete

internationally.

directs indirects induced Total

Production | millions € 2,467.1 2,256.9 1,361.5 6,085.5

Gross Value Added | millions € 717.6 1,402.8 629.9 2,750.3

Imports | millions € 172.7 184.3 99.9 456.9

Tax Revenue | millions € 170.4 155.9 94.0 420.3

Persons Employed | thousands of people 24.9 26.1 16.8 67.8

… In 2016, the waste sector in Portugal was made up of 2,542 entities, which employed around 25 thousand workers and invoiced about €2.5b …

Source: EY-AM&A based on data from Statistics Portugal (INE) and Portugal’s Water and Waste Services Regulation Authority (ERSAR)

›› wAsTE sEcTor’s widE rElEVAncE in PorTugAl | 2016

›› dirEcT rElEVAncE of ThE wAsTE sEcTor in ThE PorTuguEsE businEss Economy | 2016

24.919 Pers. Employed

0,68%

2.542 Enterprises

0,22%

€2.467 mTurnover

0,73%

€718 mGVA

0,85%

€99 mGFCF

0,62%

24.919 Empregos

0,68%

2.542 Empresas

0,22%

2.467 M€ Vol. Negócios

0,73%

718 M€ VAB

0,85%

99 M€ FBCF

0,62%


circularity opportunities

R&D and innovation play a very important role in

closing the material cycle and in promoting the logic

of circular economy. Data from the last Community

Innovation Survey (CIS) shows that there is some

awareness among Portuguese companies to the

introduction of innovations with environmental

benefits, mainly in some industrial activities. However,

these motivations are very focused on reducing the

energy costs, water and materials, which indicates a

reduced recognition and entrepreneurial motivation

for the subject of circularity as a whole. In addition

to the above mentioned, the waste sector has a low

entrepreneurial r&d expenditure intensity (0.7%,

i.e. less than half the national average). Insufficient

infrastructure sharing between urban waste

management systems and good practices among

industry stakeholders is also one of the weaknesses

identified in the PERSU2020, a finding that can be

extended to the entire waste sector where there is not

yet sufficient dynamics of cooperation.

This reality occurs in a context in which there are

relevant opportunities that benefit from a moment

favorable to the promotion of the circular model in the

advanced economies and particularly in the Portuguese

economy, namely in the commitment to circular models

and the growing development of models based on the

use of goods (product-as-a-service), in the life extension

of the product in closed cycle, in economic activities

related to an extended product life (maintenance,

repair, rental), in the design of products with the

purpose of reconceiving them, in the adoption of eco-

design principles, the development of new markets

for secondary raw materials, innovation in intelligent

logistics infrastructures, digital sharing platforms, the

existing potential for urban waste recovery, collaborative

strategies among stakeholders in the processes of

circularity, in the use of the good capacity of the SCT

(System for Science and Technology) and the recent

dynamics of scientific and technological developments,

the medium-term trend towards increased volatility

of raw materials markets, the recognition of waste

management as a priority for environmental policy and

in the package of policies to encourage the transition to

greater circularity in the economy.

The sectors of Machinery, equipment and transport equipment, Construction, Basic metal and metal products, Trade and services, Food, beverages and tobacco and Mining and quarrying are considered to be priority targets of action to promote circularity in Portugal.


›› sEcTors wiTh ThE grEATEsT PoTEnTiAl conTribuTion To circulAriTy

Source: EY-AM&A, based on data from Statistics Portugal (INE)

0

2

2 4 6 8 10 12 1614

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Circ

ular

ity P

oten

tial

Oil industry

Extractive Industries

Construction

Commerce and services(excluding 4677)

Machinery, equipmentand transport material

Pulp, paper, board, printingand recorded media

Water; sanitation;decontamination

Wood and cork

Non-metallicminerals

Basic metalsand metal products

Electricity, gas and hot water

Agriculture, forestry and �sheries

Textile, clothing and leather goods

Chemicals, pharmaceuticals,rubber and plastic industries

Food, beverage and tobacco

Furniture, other industries...

0

2

2 4 6 8 10 12 1614

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Pote

ncia

l de

circ

ular

idad

e

Potencial Económico

Petrolíferas

Extrativas

Construção

Comércio e serviços(exceto 4677)

Máquinas, equipamentose material de transporte

Pasta, papel, cartão, impressãoe suportes gravados

Água; saneamento; descontaminação

Madeira e cortiça

Mineraisnão metálicos

Metalúrgicas debase e produtos metálicos

Eletricidade, gás, água quente

Agricultura, �oresta e pescas

Têxteis, vestuárioe couro

Químicos, farmacêuticasborracha e plásticos

Alimentares, bebidas e tabaco

Mobiliário, outras indústrias...

Economic Potential


future: between the “imposed” circularity and the proactivity of private initiative

In this study, the five trends considered most important

for the construction of future scenarios were the risks

of supplying nonrenewable natural resources, price

risks (volatility and rising trend), alternative business

models based on new forms of transaction of goods and

services, more effective regulation and the technological

breakthroughs that can be applied to an increasingly

circular economy.

Considering global trends and key uncertainties,

4 alternative scenarios were built, polarized by the

strong intensity of the circular innovation flow and the

effectiveness of the regulatory pressure for circularity:

“New Circular World”; “Market Dominance”; “Think

Green”; “Failed Transition

›› scEnArios for circulAriTy ‘Vs’ wAsTE sEcTor

Source: EY-AM&A

E�caz

60%Ambígua

40%

60%Intenso

Fraco

40%

pressão regulatória

Probabilidade de ocorrência do cenário

�uxo

de

inov

ação

circ

ular 36%24%

24%16%

Novo mundo circularTriunfo do mercado

Transição fracassada Pensar verde

E ective

60%Ambiguous

40%

60%Intense

Weak

40%

regulatory pressure

Probability of scenario occurrence

circ

ular

inno

vatio

n �o

w 36%24%

24%16%

New circular worldMarket triumph

Failed transition Think Green


Political/RegulatoryOrientation

ConsumerMentality

Waste/ResourcesMarket

GlobalMacroeconomics

BusinessEnvironment

TechnologicalDevelopments

Estágio de desenvolvimentode atividade em 2030

Interação entre o setor dos resíduos e outras atividades económicas

Soluções de seleção e triagem ativa(e.g. ecopontos

digitais)

• Países emergentes abrandam ritmo de crescimento, comeconomia baseada em modelos lineares

Nível de desacoplamento entre a economia e o consumode recursos já é relevante, mas muito aquém do potencialde uma economia circular.

Comércio internacional manteve uma trajetória decrescimento desde a crise de 2008 e a fiscalidade verdepouco limita a transações internacionais (pouco exigente)

Maioria das pessoas vive em cidades

Aparecimento de empresas unicórnio com modelos denegócio e produtos susntetáveis aumentou ao longo daúltima década

Reindustrialização das economias avançadas ganha forçae é suportada nas vantagens económicas do modelocircular (e.g. maior produtividade dos materiais)

Rastreabilidade dos produtos intermédios e dos produtosfinais é elevada

•

•

•

•

•

•

• Economia digital espalha-se pelas atividades económicase a Internet das Coisas e a internet industrial vivenciaprogressos notáveis

O ecodesign começa a generalizar-se fruto de umaumento da capacidade das tecnologias produtivas emutilizar materiais reciclados (e.g. multicamada e multimaterial)

Desenvolvimento de novos materiais mais sustentáveisevolui a uma velocidade elevada

•

•

• Emerging countries slow down the growth rate, with economies based on linear models

The level of decoupling between the economy and the consumption of resources is already relevant, but far below the potential of a circular economy

International trade has maintained a growth trajectory since the crisis of 2008 and the green taxation is not limited to international transactions (not very demanding)

Most people live in cities

The appearance of unicorn companies, with sustainable business models and products, has increased over the last decade

The reindustrialisation of advanced economies gains strength and is supported by the economic advantages of the circular model (e.g. higher material productivity)

The traceability of intermediate and final products is high

•

•

•

•

•

•

• The digital economy spreads through the economic activities and the Internet of Things and the Industrial Internet experience remarkable progress

Eco-design is becoming widespread due to an increase in the capacity of productive technologies in using recycled materials (e.g. multilayer and multi-material)

Development of new, more sustainable materials evolves at a high speed

•

•

• Tendência de aumento dos preços das principaismercadorias virgens abrandou recentemente, masvolatilidade nos preços marca a última década

Falhas no aprovisionamento de importantes matérias-primas cria constrangimentos nos mercados de consumodas economias avançadas

Mercados de produtos negociados e/ou valorizadoscomeçam a surgir com maior frequência e o volume detransações é crescente, mas não é uma práticageneralizada e não abrange um número muito significativode materiais

Classe média expande-se e o poder de compra médioda população aumenta

Motivado pela comunicação eficaz em torno das práticascirculares e pela fiscalidade verde, o consumidor assumeuma atitude proactiva na aquisição de bens e serviçossustentáveis e na seleção dos resíduos produzidos (e.g.ecopontos digitais e inteligentes)

Uma grande parte das habitações dos paísesdesenvolvidos está equipada com eletrodomésticos eoutros aparelhos interconectados e arrancados aos fabricantes/distribuidores

•

•

•

•

•

• O mundo desenvolvido, e em especial a Europa, tem umpacote legislativo bastante uniforme e coerente queconsegue promover eficazmente uma economia maiscircular

Existe uma forte diversidade de medidas eficazes,incluíndo (des)incentivos ao consumidor, mecanismos deRAP avançados ou plataformas de informação derastreabilidade de materiais

O financiamento público da inovação circular já foi maiselevado, mas incide sobre todas as atividades relevantesde promoção de circularidade.

•

•

• Price increase trend of major virgin goods has slowed down recently, but price volatility marks the last decade

Failures in the supply of important raw materials create constraints in the consumption markets of the advanced economies

Markets for recycled and/or recovered products are starting to emerge more frequently and the volume of transactions is increasing, but it is not a widespread practice and does not cover a very significant number of materials

The middle class expands and the average purchasing power of the population increases

Motivated by the effective communication around circular practices and green taxation, the consumer takes a proactive attitude on the acquisition of sustainable goods and services and on the selection of the waste produced (e.g., digital and intelligent ecopoints)

A large part of the housing stock in developed countries is equipped with household appliances and other appliances which are interconnected and leased to manufacturers/distributors

•

•

•

•

•

• The developed world, particularly Europe, has a quiteuniform and coherent legislative package that can effectively promote a more circular economy

There is a strong diversity of effective measures, including consumer (dis)incentives, advanced EPR mechanisms or material traceability information platforms

The public funding for circular innovation has already been higher, but it focuses on all relevant activities to promote circularity

•

•

Land�ll management

Collection, sortingand treatment

Contracting

Reverselogistics

End-of-life

ProductUse

Sales andMarketing

Repair / upgrade

Sharing

Resale

information

Production

Selection and activesorting solutions

(e.g. digital ecopoints)

Green communication

consulting

Flow managementplatforms

Industrialsymbiosis

OperationalConsulting

Stage of activity development 2030

Interaction between the Waste Sector and other

economic activities

Ecodesignservices

Re-production

R & DProductDesign

Logistics anddistribution

Recyclingand recovery

Circular resourceplatforms

Scope of theWaste Sector


vision and strategies for the waste sector

• A waste sector that moves to a resource sector,

increasing the capacity of the Portuguese

economy to establish and lead domestic supply

chains with a reduced associated environmental

impact, where waste is regarded as resources and

are traded in functional markets that are little

dependent on aid mechanisms.

• A waste sector inserted in a national context

that is prepared to meet the demands of

transformation based on the pillars of the

knowledge society, in which companies and the

national scientific and technological system act as

driving forces of innovation, seeking to minimize

the production of waste through more efficient

processes that promote the competitiveness

of domestic industry and new applications for

waste produced that feed effective markets for

secondary raw materials.

• An waste sector integrated in a country where the

state and public policies provide a key boost to

circularity, ensuring consistent, transparent and

stable regulation and (dis)incentives, effectively

correcting market distortions (e.g. negative

externalities) and ensuring the support for eco-

innovation.

• A waste sector surrounded by more demanding

citizens and consumers, who seek and engender

change in (re)manufacturing processes and

supply chains, opting for products with less

impact throughout their life cycle, valuing circular

entrepreneurship and the most environmentally

responsible companies.

Taking into account the scenarios identified above,

four possible paths are expected to be ahead of the

future evolution of the waste sector in Portugal: two

associated to a context mainly pressured by regulation

and two associated to a context mainly pressed by the

flow of circular innovation:

• A reactive trajectory to circular innovation (RTCI),

predictably entering a phase of contraction, given

the progressive reduction of waste in the economy

and the need for waste management services;

• A reactive path to regulation (RPR) mainly focused

on the customization of its conventional activities

of waste management to the new and more

intense regulatory requirements;

• A proactive approach to circular innovation

(PACI), enhancing its progress through an active

diversification of activities related to conventional

waste management, but clearly inserted in the

circular innovation flow of the economy as a

whole;

• A proactive path to regulation (PPR) that, besides

being focused on customizing its conventional

waste management activities to the requirements

of regulation, actively invests in diversification

for related activities, but in the scope of circular

innovation.


›› AlTErnATiVE PAThs for ThE fuTurE of ThE wAsTE sEcTor

Atividades convencionais de gestão de resíduos

TPIC

TRIC

TRR

TPR

Contexto mais pressionado pela regulação

Contexto mais pressionado pelo �uxo de inovação circular

Ativ

idad

es d

e di

vers

i�ca

ção

da g

estã

o de

resí

duos

2017

Setor dos Resíduos2030

Setor dos Resíduos

2030

Setor dos Resíduos

2030

Setor dos Resíduos

2030

Setor dos Resíduos

Waste management conventional activities

PPCI

RPCI

RPR

PPR

Context more pressured by regulation

Context more pressured by the circular inovation �ow

Div

ersi

�cat

ion

activ

ities

of w

aste

man

agem

ent

2017Waste sector2030

Waste sector

2030Waste sector

2030Waste sector

2030Waste sector

The future reality of the waste sector in Portugal will also depend on the positioning adopted by the organizations composing it, with regard to the evolution of the context, which may be essentially reactive or proactive in nature.


Indicative roadmap of the waste sector for 2030

The global strategy proposed for the waste sector has

a strong ambition (its reinvention) and is divided into a

set of specific cross-cutting strategies and a number

of contingent strategies geared towards deepening

regulatory effectiveness or deepening the circular

innovation flow.

The strategies are equipped with a set of short,

medium and long term recommendations targeted

for the deepening of collective efficiency in the

waste sector, for the public policy addressed to the

waste sector and the circularity, and for the waste

sector itself (business and non-business sector. These

recommendations are prioritized in an indicative

roadmap for the 2030 horizon.

›› sTrATEgiEs for ThE PorTuguEsE wAsTE sEcTor

TRAnSveRSAL STRATeGieS

Sustainable waste sector

R&D and innovation

new cluster DigitalizationAwareness initiativescommunication

effectiveness of policies

industrialSymbioses

industrial Symbioses

Deepening of the circular innovation flow

Deepening of the regulatory effectiveness

Advanced R&D and innovation

Surveillance and monitoring

Regulatory innovation


›› indicATiVE roAdmAP for ThE wAsTE sEcTor 2018-2030

Vision 2030Waste Sector

Advanced training oncircular economy

Increased qualityof statistics

Quality improvementof recycled materials

Extended industrial symbioses

Labelling and intelligentcerti�cation

Digital platforms for waste trading

Waste IoT

”Green” niches

Renewal of material recovery capacity

Promotion of“green” shopping

Fairer eco-values

Reduction of dangeroussubstances

Innovation of collection points

Advanced R&Dprojects in Co-promotion

Related sector activitydiversi�cation

Promote networks With the Portuguese SCTN

Reinforcement of Business R&D

Management quali�cation of the sector´s companies

Innovation as a strategic axis

Processes andproductivity improvement

Extend EPR principles

InternationalR&D networks

Image of the sector

Studies and dissemination of knowledge of circular economy

De�nition of strategicobjectives

SWP role

Dashboard

Observatory of circulareconomy

Evaluation and rede�nitionof policiesGuide public R&D

to the market

Sector’s knowledge

Sharing of experiencesand case studies

Dissemination of environmental technologies

Companies’ awareness of circularity

Disclosure of innovative projects

Study of the potential of the digital Economy in the waste sector

Dig

italis

atio

n

2020 2025

Aw

aren

ess

and

com

mun

icat

ion

Sust

aina

bilit

y of

the

sect

or

R&D and Innovation E�ectiveness of policies Cluster Management

E�ciency in the agro-foodvalue chain

Integrated communicationpolicy on the circular economy

Studies onmetabolism ofeconomy

Support the conceptionof public policies for R&D and innovation

Innovative instruments to encourage circularity

Reinforcement of regulatory mechanisms Promotion of

eco-activitiesclustersAdverse e�ects of

new policies

Promotion of eco-design ineducation and trainingprograms

Reinforce curricularcontents around circularity

New Information and reporting systems on the generation of waste

Public co-�nancingof circular economy

Impact study of newinstruments

New mechanisms forgreen taxation

Free-riding active reporting mechanisms

Decommissioning andproduct certi�cation

Collaboration between the sector And environmental agenciesRevision of WMF

Incentive schemes andperformance on Waste management

Promoting greenentrepreneurship

Recommendations of public policy Recommendations for the business communityRecommendations of collective e�ciency

Paulo madruga

Head of Business Unit EY-AM&A

Phone: +351 217 912 000

Email: [email protected]

hermano rodrigues

EY-AM&A Strategic Consultant

Phone: +351 226 002 015


Telma franco

Brand, Marketing and Communication – Press Relations

Phone: +351 217 912 292


contactS

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