Study on the economic effects of the 2003 heat wave on transport

Alistair HuntMetroeconomica

& University of Bath METROECONOMI CA

Economic and Environmental Consultants

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Structure of talk

Context of study

Role of historical analogues in climate change impacts research

Impacts and costs of Summer 2003 on roads in UK

Lessons for the future

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Context of study

Initially for UKCIP – Costing case study of 2003 Summer for Cambridgeshire roads – with Chris Capps (Cambs. County Council)

Defra wanted UK total costs of Summer 2003 expanded geographical (and impact) coverage

10 August 2003, record temp - Faversham (Kent) reporting the highest at 38.5 °C.

Fourth warmest summer period on record

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Daily maximum temperature: probability of exceedance

Central England summer temperature

Baseline (1961-90)31oC has 1% chance [I day per summer]

2080s, medium-high emissions31oC has 11% chance[11 days per summer]39oC has 1% chance

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Changes in average precipitation - Summer

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Changes in average soil moisture content (2050s)

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Summer 2003 impacts on roads

high temperatures - deformations in the surface of roads, Type of road influences susceptibility to high temperatures,

- asphalt and concrete behave in different ways. Black surfaces melted and led to wheel rutting during

summer of 2003. Causes aggregate to subside and the road to lose its grip (road-stone polishing).

(Other impacts): cars with air conditioning had higher fuel use during the period; vehicles were more susceptible to break-down – particularly

from over heating.

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Summer 2003 - Cambridgeshire

Fens in Cambridgeshire made up of peat-containing wetland Subsidence due to the desiccation and shrinkage of the peat

deposits Cambridgeshire County Council spent > £19 million on

scheduled highway maintenance schemes. Large number of additional structural maintenance schemes

in need of urgent attention as a result of drought. Cost of schemes = £3.5 million.

Additional £1.1 million spent on emergency repairs of the highway due to cracking and deformation, which without attention would have left the roads in a dangerous condition.

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Summer 2003 – UK-wide

Assumptions/limitations Quantify costs associated with road subsidence. Incidence confined to roads in management of local authorities

Assumed to be because A-roads and Motorways built to different construction specification and therefore less vulnerable to subsidence.

Supporting this assumption, no additional funds were requested by UK Highways Agency for subsidence repair work following summer of 2003.

No estimates of time loss values and other WTP to avoid damage, e.g. to vehicles, as a result of road subsidence. use restoration costs to proxy for impact costs

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Summer 2003 – UK-wide costs

Costs split between local authority and central government: local authorities have access to emergency running costs

cover under 'Bellwin Scheme' in LG and Housing Act 1989 up to 85% of overall costs, <2 Months. 

If significant damage > 2 months months - DfT considers contingency funding

DfT policy: contribution to capital costs of reconstruction, though LA to spend > 15% of annual capital road maintenance grant

In this instance a number of counties, including Wiltshire, Surrey, Bedfordshire, Suffolk and Norfolk were not eligible for DfT additional support.

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UK Regional road subsidence costs – Summer 2003

Road damage costs

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

SE E EM SW Total

Region

Dam

age

(£m

)

Total Damage cost (£m)

Central Govt. contribn.(£m)

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UK County road subsidence cost shares – Summer 2003

Peterborough

East Sussex

Isle of Wight

Lincolnshire

EssexCambridgeshire

Kent

West Sussex

Hampshire

Wiltshire

Suffolk NorfolkBedfordshireSurrey

Bucks

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Costs to all transport modes – Summer 2003

Mode Impacts in summer 2003 Valuation

Rail Speed restrictions: passenger delay £ 2.2 million (a)

Rail buckles: additional maintenance £1.3 million (b)

Road Subsidence £40.6 million (c)

Underground Changes in demand £0.5 million

Health effects < £0.01 million

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Welfare Costs (Benefits) of Hot Weather Event of Summer 2003 in UK

Sector 2003

£m

Health 41 (14 - 2604)

Energy* 80

Agriculture (Arable crops)** 88

Transport 46.6

Retail +3.2

Water -

Tourism 38 (23-53)

Built Environment 124

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Lessons for the future: Avoiding future damages – examples of adaptation

Reactive: repair regime as now

Proactive: up-grade road surfaces further from current British Standard (revised after hot summer of 1995).

Proactive Tree felling since trees remove moisture from soil and if close to road actually deform the road.

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Lessons for the future (cont.)

Policy Public bodies need to prepare for greater call on repair

funds – if surfaces and road structures likely to remain vulnerable

Funding rules may need to be revisited

Research Since more pressure on funding likely, more attention

on justification likely e.g. WTP to avoid time delays, frequency of events etc.