struggle for marawi...7 struggle for marawi march 8, 2018 15 upsurge in violent extremism abu sayyaf...
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Struggle for Marawi
Steven Rood, Fellow-in-Residence
Kapihan sa SWSMarch 8, 2018
Social Weather Stations
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War for Hearts and Minds
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Struggle for MarawiMarch 8, 2018 4
Philippines Special Operations
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Nasheed:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QOG5A-uvTlY
Islamic State: “Brothers in Marawi”
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https://asiafoundation.org/resources/pdfs/SWSFebMarJun2015Surveys.pdf
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MUSLIMS CHRISTIANS
Net Gainers +7 +19
Net Optimists +30 +41
Net Sat. with Life +25 +36
Net Happy +15 +39
Jobless (% of adults) 15.8 20.1
SUBJECTIVE WELL-BEING OF MUSLIMS VS.
CHRISTIANS, PHILIPPINES, 2017Q1-Q4
Third Quarter 2017 Social Weather ReportSeptember 23-27, 2017 National Survey
READINESS TO HELP THE VICTIMS OF THE MARAWI CITY
CRISIS, PHILIPPINES, SEP 2017
Q87. Gaano po kayo ka-handang tumulong sa mga naging biktima ng krisis sa Marawi City? Kayo po ba ay… (SHOWCARD)
Ready, 60%
Undecided, 20%
Unready, 20%
+40
Net*
* Net readiness= % Ready minus % Unready correctly rounded. Don’t know/Refuse responses are not shown.
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Third Quarter 2017 Social Weather ReportSeptember 23-27, 2017 National Survey
THINGS ONE CAN DO IN ORDER TO HELP THE VICTIMS OF THE
MARAWI CITY CRISIS, PHILIPPINES, SEP 2017(Base: Those who are ready to help the victims of Marawi City Crisis)
Pray for/offer mass for the victims 54%
Donate relief goods 51
Donate clothes 49
Donate money 16
Work personally in packing/
delivering relief goods 13
Keep/protect victims in own house 4
Give free transportation/rides 2
Give free medicine 0.1
Q88. KUNG TALAGANG/MEDYO HANDA: Alin po sa mga sumusunod ang inyong kayang gawin upang
makatulong sa mga biktima ng krisis sa Marawi City? Alin pa po? (SHOWCARD, ALLOW MULTIPLE
RESPONSES)
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Mindanao and Sulu Archipelago – Mainstream Moro Fronts
MILF heartlandMNLF heartland
Moro National Liberation Front Moro Islamic Liberation Front
Islamic City of
Marawi
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Area of Operation of Selected Groups
Parang, Barira, Buldon, Matanog-- Camp Abubakar MILF)
Sulu (ASG KFR)
Basilan (ASG,Hapilon)
SPMS Box,,BIFF
Butig, Marawi (IS-Ranao; Maute)
Proposed territory ofthe Bangsamoro
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Formal Conflict Management–MNLF & MILF
1976 – Tripoli Agreement – MNLF–Marcos ▪ Marcos unilaterally re-interpreted it
1987 – Jeddah Accord – MNLF – Aquino ▪ Overtaken by 1987 Constitution under Cory Aquino
1996 – “Final Peace Agreement” (FPA) – MNLF – Ramos▪ Integration of MNLF into PNP & Army (actually, MNLF sons & nephews)▪ “Arms to Farms” in reality was Arms AND Farms
2001 – Start of serious progress in MILF talks 2008 – MOA-AD debacle, near-agreement with MILF▪ Declared unconstitutional, violent upsurge, 750,000 IDPs
2014 – Comprehensive Agreement on Bangsamoro (CAB) w/ MILF2015 – Mamasapano incident (44 PNP-SAF killed) so no Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) to implement CAB
2016 – Joint Communique on conclusion of Tripartite (OIC-MNLF-GPH) Review of the Implementation of the 1996 FPA
2017 – Expanded Bangsamoro Transition Commission revises draft BBL2018 – Draft Bangsamoro Basic Law (BBL) again before Congress
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Upsurge in Violent ExtremismAbu Sayyaf (1991 breakaway from MNLF in Sulu [Tausug] and Basilan [Yakan])
– Abdurajik Janjalani fought in Afghanistan, got funding from Osama bin Laden
– Beginning late 1990s, mostly known for kidnapping and piracy– But in particular, Basilan ASG retained Islamic thrust (Isnilon Hapilon)
Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters (in Maguindanao/North Cotabato)– In 2008, Umbra Kato as MILF commander attacked (MOA-AD)– In 2011 declared “bughat” by MILF after long process (died 2015)
▪ Beginning 2014, reports of recruiting on college campuses in Mindanao
Maute brothers (“Islamic State—Ranao”), middle-eastern trained (Maranao, based themselves in Butig, LdS)
– Beginning 2016, frequent clashes with AFP, culminating in November in Butig, LdS
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Islamic State
Islamic City of Marawi, July 2014
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi declared Caliphate June 27 2014)– July 2 Taguig inmates; July 23 Hapilon swear “bay’ah”– 2016 – ISIS names Hapilon Amir, releases video urging militants to go to PH– December 2016 – Hapilon goes to Lanao del Sur– May 2017 – plan to seize Marawi at beginning of Ramadan – prematurely set
off by arrest attempt on Hapilon
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Urban Warfare in Mindanao Conflict▪ Jolo, February 1974, 8 days to wrest control from MNLF
– City burned as the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) retook it
■ Zamboanga, September 2013 – 20 days– 208 MNLF killed – 20 AFP & 5 PNP – 12 civilians– 119,000 displaced
▪ Marawi, May-October 2017– 919 militants killed, – 165 AFP & PNP, 47 civilians– 460,000 displaced, mostly home-based
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Dress Rehearsal – Butig, Lanao Sur (26 Nov 2016)
6 days63 militants killed; 2 AFP killed, 35 injured“They have been decimated.
The capability to sustain and get back to the fight is no longer there” – AFP, Dec. 1, 2016
Mautes ‘said that they will go down upon Marawi to burn the place. And I said, “Go ahead, do it.”’(Du30, Dec 12)
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Troubled Maritime Region
Samal Island – PatikulSeptember 2015
Indanan-InabangaApril 2017
“Back Door”Via SangiheChain
Lahad Datu
Sulu
Basilan
Marawi
February 2013 invasion of Sabah by Sulu Sultanate
Money smuggling via Tawauto finance #MarawiClash
Troubled Maritime Region
Findings from Fieldwork(The Asia Foundation)
Understanding Violent
Extremism in Mindanao
Photo courtesy of the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict,
The “East Asia Wilayah’ and Indonesia
(21 July 2017: IPAC Report No. 38)
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Mutually reinforcing push factors:
Frustration borne out of continuing perceived and actual marginalization of Muslims in Mindanao.
■ Anti Muslim bias; sense of persecution
■ Unaddressed historical injustices
■ Experiences of human rights violations; need for revenge
■ Military operations seen as willful destruction of Muslim communities
Dire political and economic situation
■ Corrupt officials and overall bad governance
■ Poverty, illiteracy, unemployment
Frustration with the MNLF and MILF leadership and the peace process
■ Non–passage of the BBL as evidence of government treachery
■ Nationalist Moro fronts cooperation with the “enemy”
Mutually reinforcing pull factors:
■ Emotional and spiritual appeal of extremist ideology
■ Extremist ideology as compelling response to the present
situation
■ Power and social prestige in the community
■ Belonging to a select group of young Muslim heroes and
warriors
■ Adventure and romantic appeal of youthful idealism
■ Financial reward
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Who are the likely recruits?
■ In mainland Mindanao (urban)
▪ Usually college students
▪ Higher level students of madrasah
▪ Young, idealistic and with leadership potential
▪ Many belong to the middle class families
■ In the islands
▪ Young, poor with low education
▪ Usually children and relatives of MNLF fighters
▪ Personally suffered loss of family members due to conflict
The extremist narrative; their spiel
■ Singularity of aqeedah: “this is the correct way of practicing Islam. All others are innovation and unacceptable”
■ Islam is under attack globally and locally
■ Muslims will always be deceived by non-Muslims
■ Khilafa is the answer to the problems of Muslims
■ Peace process is a deception
■ MNLF and MILF are traitors; turned their backs to true jihad
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Recruitment process? (Basilan & Sulu) (ASG)
Financial
enticements
Guerilla
training
and
swearing of
allegiance
Initial offer
to learn
Arabic
Feeds
those who
come for
religious
education
Indoctrinati
on on
kidnapping
and
violence
Recruitment process (Mainland) (DawlahIslamiya, Ansar Al-Khilafa Philippines)
Recruitment
from among
family
members
Guerilla
training
and
swearing
of
allegiance
mubaya
Interpersona
l
discussions;
long intimate
car rides
Islamic
study
circles
called
halaqa
Public
displays of
ISIS flags
to project
popularity
Social
media
Short
wave
radio
channel
s
Financial
Enticemen
t
Student
organization
s
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What makes the extremist groups resilient?
Community and family support
▪ Not necessarily because of shared belief
▪ Social obligation to help family members in need
▪ Cultural obligation to help a Muslim who is fighting a non-Muslim
▪ Government seen as the common enemy
Community tolerance and silence due to fear of reprisal from extremists
Communities also benefit financially (Sulu & Basilan)
Foreign support
▪ Aside from regular payments to members, $600,000 for Marawi
▪ Coordination of different elements – ASG and Maute, or Dr. Mahmud
for Indonesians
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Countering Violent Extremism (CVE)
▪ Bangsamoro Basic Law to implement peace agreement▪ Faces rough ride in Congress, particularly House of Representatives▪ The “Bangsamoro narrative” is counter to that of the caliphate
▪ Community resilience interventions▪ Space for community-based dialogue; management of localized conflict▪ Positive messaging with the religious (note: some local ulama threatened)
▪ Security sector reform on Countering Violent Extremism ▪ Rethinking of present security sector approach to VE
▪ Governance Issues▪ Work to improve accountability of local officials▪ Legal framework (Bank Secrecy, Money Laundering, Human Security Act –
5 year 2010-2015 to declare ASG terrorist group)
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Role of Mainstream Moro FrontsMILF: ▪ BBL “best vaccine against the ISIS virus” (won’t convince those dedicated to a
caliphate, but can present a positive Bangsamoro narrative)▪ 2010/2011 – process to declare Umbra Kato and his (BIFF) “Bughat”▪ 2015-2016 – Study Group on violent extremism, but reluctant to endorse anti-CVE▪ June 25, 2017 – issued a fatwa against (unnamed) violent extremist elements
– Meanwhile, Commander Bravo has cooperated with CCCH in operations against Mautes; issued YouTube video in June 2017 (“your jihad is not ours”)
– Twice MILF forces have repelled ISIS-linked militants trying to enter Maguindanao
– Similarly, action against BIFF in central Mindanao has had MILF cooperation since 2011
– Joint Peace and Security Teams (AFP/PNP/BIAF) held open Marawi Peace Corridor
MNLF (Misuari) has recently intervened to help release Abu Sayyaf hostages in Sulu– In February 2013 his forces launched offensive, suffered casualties (including
4 beheadings)
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Pathologies of Marawi Reconstruction▪ “Military Reservation” as declared in 1957
– “the military will not claim any land that it does not need”
– New camp to take 10 of the 250 hectares
▪ Total Uncertainty with regard to land
– 11,000 buildings, 3000 “informal”
– 7,000 parcels as per Land Management Bureau, overlapping,
conflicts
▪ Plans for the “Modern” Marawi City
– Wide boulevards, promenades, etc.
– President Duterte wants just low structures to prevent sniping
▪ All local sectors – NGOs, Sultans, LGUs say lack of consultation
Residents have lost everything, are not able to return and have a
very murky future — a situation that could easily lead to
discontent.
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