strategies and instruments for low-carbon transport...

1

The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S6), the Ministry of the Environment, Japan

Symposium “Challenges to Low Carbon Asia” (13/10/17)

Principal Investigator: Prof. Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

S‐6‐5(1): Prof. Y Hayashi (Nagoya Univ), Dr. H Kato, Dr. K Nakamura, K Ito, M FujitaS‐6‐5(2): Prof. A Fukuda (Nihon Univ), Dr. T Ishizaka, Dr. H ItoS‐6‐5(3): Dr. S Hanaoka (Tokyo Institute of Technology), Dr. K NakamichiS‐6‐5(4): Prof. F Nakamura (Yokohama National Univ), Prof. T Okamura (Toyo Univ)S‐6‐5(5): Prof. T Okuda (Nanzan Univ)

Strategies and Instruments for Low-Carbon Transport Systems in Asia

2

Risk of rapid growth in CO2 emission in developing countries in Asia

Per C

apita

GHG

Emission

Low Carbon SocietyBackcastingDeveloping Countries

Leap‐frog

Developed Countries

2014/1/21

School boy waiting a bus at 4:30 am

in Suburb of Bangkok

Bangkok Post4 Sept 1993

Photo by Hayashi(1993)

Slower than walkers in Sukunvit, Bangkok

時間

Visioning Future Transport Systems with Key Indicators

時間

GDP・・・

25%

19%

17%

39%

13%6%

56%

25%

London

(2008)

TokyoReference

(2007)

Car Bus Rail Walk

CO2

1989 2005 2050

Car56％

Bus38％

Rail4％

Walk2％

Car43％Bus

41％

Walk16％

BAU

Leap‐Frog

Avoid Unnecessary Travel

Shift to Low‐Carbon Mode

Improve Transport Emission intensity

AVOID

SFHIT

IMPROVE

Economic Growth+Ageing

Policy/technology options（CUTE Matrix）Strategies

MeansAVOID SHIFT IMPROVE

Technologies

• Transport oriented development (TOD)

• Poly-centric development• Efficient freight distribution

• Railways and BRT development

• Interchange improvement among railway, BRT, bus and para-transit modes

• Facilities for personal mobility and pedestrians

• Development of electric vehicles

• Development of biomass fuel

• "Smart grid“ development

Regulations • Land-use control

• Separation of bus/para-transit trunk and feeder routes

• Local circulating service• Control on driving and parking

• Emissions standards• “Top-runner" approach

Information• Telecommuting• Online shopping• Lifestyle change

• ITS public transport operation

• "Eco-driving"• ITS traffic-flow management• Vehicle performance labeling

Economy • Subsidies and taxation to location

• Park & ride• Cooperative fare systems among modes

• Fuel tax/carbon tax• Subsidies and taxation to low-emissions vehicles

Neglecting Railways in Bangkok

Photo by Hayashi (1994)

Mass Rapid Transit Master Plan in 2020

10 lines, total distance 464 km

Thammasat Rangsit –Maha Chai (80.8 km)

Bang Yai – Rat Burana(42.8 km)

Salaya – Hau Mak (54 km)

Bang Sue – Tha Phra –Phutthamonthon sai 4 (55 km)

Yod se – Bang Wa(15.5 km)

Lam Luk Ka – Bang Pu(66.5 km)

Khae Rai – Min Buri(36 km)

Lat Phrao – Sam Rong (30.4 km)

Taling Chan –Thailand Cultural Center – Mon Buri(32.5 km)

102013/10/16

Success in 3 projects

More public support

Government policy shift to Railway (2011)

Visioning Future Society in Asia

11

Aggressive Growth (Efficiency Demanding)

Moderate Growth(Sufficiency Seeking)

Society Economically Developed Socially Matured

EnvironmentMore Technological Approach for Solution More Behavioral Approach for Solution

EmploymentMore Full‐time Employment More FlexibleWorking Style

Education More Education for Career Development More Education for Social Responsibility

Safety More Technology‐based Protection More Community‐based Protection

Health More Medical Treatment Reliance More Precautionary Health CareProduction

Style Efficiency‐Oriented Mass Production For Local Consumption

Lifestyle Work Oriented More Social Activities

Travel Purposes

Working Age Elderly

CommutingCommuting

ShoppingShopping

Private

Business

Private

Business

TOKYO (2008) TOKYO (2008)

Socio‐Economic Vision

Driving Forces of Society in Asia

12

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Popu

lation

growth ratio from

2010

Japan

China

Thailand

1.030.97

0.86

10.4%12.0%14.4%17.2%20.2%23.4%26.2%28.5%30.4%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

201020152020202520302035204020452050

Age 0 ‐ 14 15 ‐ 64 65 +

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

per‐capita GDP

(1000 US$)

China （5.5～8.9）Thailand（3.7～8.1）

Source: UN World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision

③Ageing in Thailand （2010‐2050）

2.92 times(2010‐2050)

Per capita

GDP

(100

0US$)

Popu

latio

n grow

th ra

tion

from

2010

②Population change (vs 2010)①Economic growth (vs 2010)

Driving Force

The Framework of Backcasting Approach to Developing Low-Carbon Systems (S6)

Economic Growth

Technology InnovationAgeing

Employment

Education

Safety HealthEnvironmentProduction/

Consumption Style

SocietyGDP QOLCO2

Land-use Transport Policies

Land-use Transport System

Future Vision S

cenariosP

olicy D

esign

S6-1

S6-5

Driving

Force

Urban Interregional

Urban Interregional

× ×

Travel Demand Car Dependency Energy Efficiency(Travel Distance)

GDP GDP

(CO2 Emissions/km)

GDP

(Modal Split)

＝

CO2 emissions

GDP

IMPROVEMitigation

Decomposing the Vision(Target) of Urban Transport Systemsinto Low Carbon Strategies

14

Downsizing Transport

Urban Sprawl

Seamless Public Transport Mobility

Congestion

Energy EfficientTechnology & Supply Chain

Transit Oriented Urban Lifestyle

Motorisation

AVOID SHIFT

Environmentally-Friendly Industrial Complex

Moderate Growth

(Ageing / Sufficiency seeking)

Aggressive Growth

(Efficiency Demanding)

Road‐Oriented Development

Urban Vision

CBD

Sub Centers

AVOID SHIFT IMPROVEProposing Vision: Hierarchically Connected Compact City

Well‐Connected Hierarchical Urban Cores

Hierarchical Public Transport System

Low‐Carbon & Efficient Road Transport System

TODon MRT Corridor

Integrated Public Transport with ICT

Community‐based Paratransit Feader

Shared Personal Mobility

Mass Rapid Transit(MRT)

Transit Oriented Development(TOD)

Urban VisionUrban Vision

0

25

50

75

100

[min/delay]

[min/flexibility]

[min/10min access]

[min/0.61m²]

[min/protection][min/2transfer]

[min/0.6% accident]

[min/privacy]

[min/25Baht]

[% /0.15% crime]

[min]Travel time

Delay

Flexibility

Access

Space

ProtectionTransfer

Trafficaccident

Burglar

Privacy

Cost

16

Examining Quality of Life (Mobility)‐ Case of Bangkok ‐

Potential Quality of Life (Mobility)

0

25

50

75

100Travel time

Delay

Flexibility

Access

Space

ProtectionTransfer

Trafficaccident

Burglar

Privacy

Cost[min/delay]

[min/flexibility]

[min/10min access]

[min/0.61m²]

[min/protection][min/2transfer]

[min/0.6% accident]

[min/privacy]

[min/25Baht]

[% /0.15% crime]

[min]

Low income High income

Income Age

Younger Elderly

TODon MRT Corridor

Integrated Public Transport with ICT

Community‐based Paratransit Feader

Shared Personal Mobility

Reliable Mobility Safe MobilityAffordable Mobility Comfortable Mobility

for Economic Growth for Communal Educationfor Necessary Activities for Active Life

Urban Vision

Inclusion of the Low‐Carbon Transport Vision in Policies in Asian Developing Cities

17

68,265

5382847922

32,935

12,050

9555

8459

7,849

15,031

11919

10552

8,017

1,483

1483

1041

1,387

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

,

BAU IMPROVE IMPROVE+SHIFT IMPROVE+SHIFT+AVOID

CO2Em

ission

[t‐CO2/year]

BRT

ソンテウ

トラック

二輪車

乗用車

20.7% 29.8 % 48.2%

IMPROVESHIFT,

IMPROVE

AVOID, SHIFT,

IMPROVEBAU

Khon Kaen city , Thailand

IMPROVE

SHIFT

AVOID Transit Oriented Development (More population along BRT corridors)BRT Development (5 new routes)More Low Emission Vehicle use(30% of HV, 50% of EV motorcycle, 50 % of EV truck )

Urban Vision

Leap-Frog Low-Carbon Transport DevelopmentCO2

1989 2005 20502020

Leap‐Frog

BangkokCO2 Per Capitafrom transport3.5t (2007)

BAU

Master Plan in 2020

Heavy CongestionBTS Sky Train

20kmMRT Development

81km 10lines total 464km

19991989 2010

Car51％

Bus49％

Rail5％

Car57％

Bus38％ Rail

Car

Urban Vision

Steps of the Backcasting Approach

Capturing Key Causal Relationship of CO2

Emissions from Transport

Selecting Effective Policy Packages to Realize the

Vision

Examining the Feasibility of Policy Implementation

Visioning Low Carbon Transport Systems

2

1

3 4

2000 2005 2010

2000 2005 2010

Bangkok (7,650km2)

Shanghai (6,400km2)

~5,000 ~10,000 ~30,000 ~50,000 ~100,000Population

[person]

0100200300400

02468

2000 2005 2010

Pop[million] Rail length[km]

0100200300400

02468

2000 2005 2010

Pop[million] Rail length[km]

Rail length

City center(129km2)

Urban fringe(1,051km2)

Suburb(6,473km2)

City center(114km2)

Urban fringe(550km2)

Suburb(5,737km2)

Rail length

Changes in MRT Networks and Urban Forms1

21

(2008) (2007)

CO2 per Capitafrom Transport

Tokyo 23 district Inner LondonTrip Purpose

1.6t (2004)

Trip Purpose

1.2t (2010)CO2 per Capitafrom Transport

Efficiency Demanding Sufficiency Seeking

Targeting Low‐Carbon Urban Transport Systems

2008

Private49%

Commuting31%

Education9%

Business11%

2010

Private69%

Commuting17%

Education8%

Business6%

Mode share Mode share

Urban Vision

0.000

0.500

1.000

1.500

0 20,000 40,000 60,000

0

100

200

300

400

0 20,000 40,000 60,000

Trip Frequency

Built‐up Area

Traffic Speed

Fossil Fuel Share

Railway Network intensity

× ×

Travel Demand Car Dependency

GDP

(Modal Split)＝

CO2 emissions

GDP

AVOID SHIFT IMPROVEMitigation

Car Ownership

Fuel Efficiency

22

Energy Efficiency(Travel Distance)

GDP GDP

(CO2 Emission / km)

Dynamic Tracking of Transport Related Emission Mechanism

0

500

1,000

0 20,000 40,000 60,000

km2Car/1000pop

Tokyo 23Bangkok MA Km/ km2

Urban Policy Roadmap

Tokyo 23Bangkok MA

Tokyo 23Bangkok MA

6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0100200300400500600

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

The Effects of Early MRT Development

23

Urban sprawl calming by high density development around stations

15% 26%Pop/km2

①Early development

350

400

450

500

550

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Car ownership growth calming by rail‐oriented travel habit

Car/1000pop

23% 44%

Changes from 2010① ②

MRT development timing scenario in Bangkokkm

MRT Master Plan

②Later development


Road vs Rail: which is more effective for calming traffic congestionTravel Time

Travel Time

RoadDevelopment

RailDevelopment

Transport Volume

Transport Volume

DraSra1

Sra2

Dro2

Sro1

Sro2

Construction & Operation Cost

CO2 Emissions: ‐22%

CO2 Emissions: ‐45%

2050 Road‐Oriented Development (Bangkok)

2050 Rail‐Oriented Development (Bangkok)

‐22%

‐30%

Construction & Operation Cost


0 25 50CO₂ Emissions (Mt‐CO₂/year)

car rail bus truck

The Effects of Integrated Transport Systems on Traffic Congestion and CO2 Mitigation

25

! Industrylegend

MRT

Inner‐ringOuter‐ring

15.2km/h

14.0km/h

8.9km/h

12.7km/h

Present

Without Outer‐ring Roads

Without Inner‐ring Roads

Without MRT

CO2：+10.7% Speed：‐16.3%

CO2：+1.1% Speed：‐8.0%

CO2：+0.8% Speed：‐41.7%

Interregional Vision

Ü0 250 500 750 1,000125

km

26

Identifying Low‐Carbon Transport Modesin ASEAN

MRTBRTBRT &MRT

0.75‐ 1Mill. [pop] + 1Mill. [pop]

1000 ‐ 3000[$/cap]

+ 3000[$/cap]

BRT ：GDP per capita > 1,000 $MRT ：GDP of city > 30 billion $

7cities

4cities 9cities

10cities

Economic feasibility of MRT development

0

50

100

150

200

0 2000 4000 6000 8000

BRT

MRT

Car

CO2 emission intensity of mass transit

[Pop/ km2]

CO2/passenger‐km

Bangkok

Manila

Singapore

Yangon

Vientiane

Jakarta

Kuala Lumpur

Least CO2 emission mode in Asian mega cities


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

27

The Roadmap for Low‐Carbon Urban Transport Development in ASEAN Megacities

40%40%24%31%25%

CO2‐emission reductionMillion tons

IMPROVE

SHIFT

AVOIDLand‐use control (3% less annual expansion of built‐up area)

Increasing LEV share (EV76%, HV23%), Improving Fuel Efficiencies (by 28%)Emission intensity of power generation(2005:1269g‐CO2/kwh 2050: 546g‐CO2/kwh)

4,568 km MRT development,(6cities, Ave.: 760 km/city) 23,337km BRT development(23cities, Ave.:1015km/city)


× ×

Travel Demand Air/Truck Dependency Energy Efficiency(Travel Distance)

GDP GDP

(CO2 Emission Factor)

GDP

(Modal Split)＝

CO2 emissions

GDP

AVOID SHIFT IMPROVEMitigation

Decomposing the Vision(Target) of Interregional Transport Systemsinto Low Carbon Strategies

28

Efficient Supply Chain

Low-Carbon Public Transport Mobility

Energy Efficient Technology &

Operation

Rail-Oriented Industrial Renovation

Global Industrialisation (Block Economies)

Growth in Low Cost Carriers & Motorisation

Rail-Oriented Lifestyle

Economic Growth


Shanghai

Singapore

Phnom Penh

GMS(Greater Mekong Sub region)

29

Hanoi

Road(Economic Corridor)Bangkok

YangonKyaukpyu Port

Kunming

SHIFT

Inland Freight High Speed Rail (HSR) Development between Port Hubs

Proposing Vision: Mainstreaming Rail and Water in Interregional Transport

AVOID

Local Cities on HSR

Light Industry

Advanced Industry & Commercial

Megacities on HSR

Cities on Local Freight Rail

Heavy Industry

Rail/Water Oriented Intermodal Transport System

Low‐carbon Vehicles, Aircrafts, Vessels

Industrial Rail‐Oriented Development (ROD) Corridor

IMPROVE



3030

Current Industrial location（Bangkok） yScenario 1：

Priority to resilience for disaster

y ( )Scenario 2：

Priority to low labor cost (Cambodia) y g ( )Scenario 3：Priority to larger economic market(Indian)

Route 2(2,000km)

Port

Bangkok

Ho chi Minh City

530kmTo India

Via Singapore

Impact analysis to reduce CO2 emissions by plant location changeImpact analysis to reduce CO2 emissions by plant location changeEfficient Industrial Supply Chain

Bangkok

100km

CO2 emission ‐3%

Present Scenario 1

Proximity location of Assembly plant and

supplier

Assembly plant

+25%+25%CO2 emission

Present Scenario 2

improving

process

Need of improving Production process

Route 1(5,000km)

ViaMyanmar

From Thailand

‐33%CO2 emission

Seamless transport g

Seamless transport using sea and rail or truck

Assembly plant

SupplierPort‐Port

Port‐Port

Assembly plant

SupplierPort

Port ‐Demand

Port‐Port

supplier

Assembly ‐supplier

Assembly ‐supplierSea only Integrated

transport

40% CO2 mitigation 30% time saving

31

Targeting Necessary Rail Use for Low‐Carbon Interregional Development

Bangkok(Thailand)

1,000km

Case Study: Bangkok – Hanoi Case Study: Bangkok – Hanoi

Optimal Modal Splits for reducing 40% CO2 emissionOptimal Modal Splits for reducing 40% CO2 emission

Hanoi(Vetnum)

(with / without)

Withrailway

Withoutrailway

30% time Saving

Truck Maritime

Railway 91.7%

14.2%


The Roadmap for Low‐Carbon Interregional Transport Development in ASEAN and China

32

CO2‐emission reductionNew GMS‐wide HSR

network is necessary(8.526km)

SHIFTAVOID

(ten billion ton)

‐26%‐17%

‐46%

65%reduction

65%reduction

※Japan’s HSR network : over 2.300km※China’s HSR network : over 10,000km

Interregional Policy Roadmap

ConclusionsFindings• Hierarchical Compact City and Mainstreaming Rail & Water

can meet diversifying passenger transport demand and growing freight transport demand in GMS.

• 40‐60% CO2 mitigation is achievable by early urban transit development and HSR development in GMS.

Policy Implications• Leap‐frog is required to shift from high‐carbon road‐oriented

mobility and supply chain to transit‐oriented urban lifestyleand rail‐oriented industrial development in Asia.

• Drastic reforms of life‐style and production process should be induced by transport reform.

33

Policy/technology options（CUTE Matrix）Strategies

MeansAVOID SHIFT IMPROVE

Technologies

• Transport oriented development (TOD)

• Poly-centric development• Efficient freight distribution

• Railways and BRT development

• Interchange improvement among railway, BRT, bus and para-transit modes

• Facilities for personal mobility and pedestrians

• Development of electric vehicles

• Development of biomass fuel

• "Smart grid“ development

Regulations • Land-use control

• Separation of bus/para-transit trunk and feeder routes

• Local circulating service• Control on driving and parking

• Emissions standards• “Top-runner" approach

Information• Telecommuting• Online shopping• Lifestyle change

• ITS public transport operation

• "Eco-driving"• ITS traffic-flow management• Vehicle performance labeling

Economy • Subsidies and taxation to location

• Park & ride• Cooperative fare systems among modes

• Fuel tax/carbon tax• Subsidies and taxation to low-emissions vehicles

BackgroundIncreasing necessity of Low‐Carbon Transport Development in Asia• Low‐Carbon Transport Policy Options Classified by Strategy: AVOID, SHIFT,

IMPROVE (GTZ), and by Instrument: CUTE (WCTRS)• Necessary Transformation of International Climate Change Funding Schemes

to Include Transport Development (TRL, GTZ, ADB)• Necessary Reform of Assessment Framework of Investments in International

Transport Development to Promote Low‐Carbon Transport Development in Developing Countries (ADB)

• Estimation of Potential CO2 Mitigation from Low‐Carbon Transport Development in Some Asian Regions based on the Current Trend (ADB, World Bank, ICCT)

• Backcasting Approach to Low‐Carbon Transport Development in Some Asian Regions with Scenarios of Transport Technology and Demand (Vibat, ITPS)

36

More Attention is needed toLong‐term Visions and Roadmaps based on Changes in

Production/Consumption Styles to Change Transport Demand in Asia.

strategies and instruments for low-carbon transport...

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