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1

Strategic Shifts in the Global Oil Equation

Dr. Fereidun Fesharaki, ChairmanFACTS Global Energy (FGE)

The 31st JCCP International SymposiumTokyo, Japan

January 30-31, 2013

Overview

Long Term: Market Tightness to Return and OPEC Holds the Cards for Additional Supply

Short Term: Price Pressures, Sanctions on Iranian Oil, and OPEC Spare Capacity

Gasoline: A Fuel of the Past?

A Real Game Changer: Liquids Production from Shale Gas Projects

East of Suez Products Trade: More Gasoline and Diesel Must Leave the Region

Refining Sector: Near-Term Outlook OK, but 2015-17 will be Difficult.Will Enough Capacity be Closed?

2

Bunker Sector: Specification Changes to Impact Bunker Demand

www.FGEnergy.com

3

Short-Term Oil Market: PricePressures, Sanctions on IranianOil, and OPEC Spare Capacity

www.FGEnergy.com

Oil Demand in 2011 and 2012 - Slowdown from 2010

4

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

Ch

ange

y-o

n-y

,mm

b/d

OECD Non-OECD Net Global Growth

+2.7 mmb/d +0.9 mmb/d +0.9 mmb/d-0.8 mmb/d +0.8 mmb/d

• OECD demand boosted in Q2 2012 by high Japan oil input for power generation, due to shortfall in nuclear• Y-o-y decrease in OECD demand in Q3 2012 should slow down temporarily in Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 (mild winter

last year)• Non-OECD demand growth projected to pick up in second half of 2013, mainly due to acceleration in China

www.FGEnergy.com

Iran Oil Exports – Recovering Slightly Now• Iran’s estimated oil exports down to only 900 kb/d in July/August 2012 due to sanctions versus

2.2 mmb/d average in 2011.

• However, exports are expected to recover to around 1-1.3 mmb/d towards end 2012.

• Since the introduction of gas sanctions in October 2012, Iranian LPG exports have also beenaffected—only one shipment in November, compared to seven in September and five inOctober.

5

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Others

EU

Turkey

S. Korea

Japan

India

China

Crude Oil Imports From Iran – Current Outlook ThroughDecember (kb/d)

www.FGEnergy.com

OPEC Spare Capacity Estimated at 4.5 mmb/d

6

2820

295 125

190

65 900

150

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

kb/d

OPEC Estimated Output and Capacity

Estimated Spare Capacity

Estimated November 12 Output

*Note: Nigeria/Iraq output currently constrained by temporarily unavailable capacity; Iran's capacityat end-2012 potentially lower than projected due to impact of sanctions.

www.FGEnergy.com

7

Long Term: Market Tightness toReturn and OPEC Holds the Cards for

Additional Supply

www.FGEnergy.com

Long Term: Market Tightness Will Return

8

Annual “Base-Load” Demand Growth: 2010-2020, kb/d

Structural Demand Shift: OECD countries: Oil demand has peaked; Non-OECD countries: Strong annual “base-load” demand growth of

around 1.0 mmb/d in 2010-2020.

481

136 97

280

China India Other Asia Middle East

Iraq: 45 kb/d

Others: 48 kb/d

Iran: 27 kb/d

UAE: 48 kb/d

Saudi Arabia:112 kb/d

www.FGEnergy.comm

mb

/d,

chan

gey-

on

-y

Non-OPEC Production Plateau

* Annual average of 5 years change

9

But what will be the impact of shale gas related oil?

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2015* 2020* 2025*

FSU Asia/Pacific

M East Africa

L America Europe

N America Total

www.FGEnergy.com

Expansion in Iraqi Export Infrastructure

• New Southern Export Project (3 undersea pipelines and 5 SPM facilities) plans to add a totalof 3.2 mmb/d of export capacity by 2014.

• The first new SPM offshore Basra started up in March 2012, shortly followed by the secondSPM in April, each with an eventual capacity of 900 kb/d.

• The third and fourth SPMs are scheduled for completion by 2020; with another spare SPMscheduled for completion by 2025.

• This has already allowed Iraq to boost exports from its Southern fields.

• Total crude exports reached a new monthly high of more than 2.6 mmb/d in October 2012.

System Current Capacity(mmb/d)

Planned Capacity(mmb/d)

Iraqi-Turkish System (North) 0.7 + 0.9

Basra Port (South) 1.6 -

Al Amaya Port (South) 0.5 -

New Southern Export Project - + 3.2

Total 2.8 + 4.1 = 6.9 mmb/dby 2013-14

10

www.FGEnergy.com

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

mm

b/d

Asia Net Crude Imports Rising Fast

11

Diversifying sources of crudesupplies, but Asia has to importmore from OPEC (especiallyMiddle Eastern countries).

Asian NOCs aggressively acquiringoverseas upstream assets.• China spent over US$60 billion in

overseas direct oil and gas assetsacquisitions between 2008 andend 2011.

• India, Korea, and Japan are alsoaggressive in their overseasacquisitions.

Establishing a global tradingnetwork.

www.FGEnergy.com

Long-Term Oil Price Outlook

12

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$40

$60

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$200

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30

US$

/bb

l

Dubai in US$/bbl

2011 are actuals. Forecasts in $2012

CEILING

FLOOR

www.FGEnergy.com

13

A Real Game Changer: LiquidsProduction from Shale Gas Projects

www.FGEnergy.com

Real Game Changer: Liquids Production from Shale

• US crude production declined from about 6 mmb/d in 2003 to 5 mmb/d in early 2009, butlight crude production associated with shale gas plays has reversed the trend.

• Current liquid production from shale is 700 kb/d with projections to nearly 2 mmb/d by 2015.

14

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Mississipian Lime Granite Wash WoodfordPermian (Shale) Niobrara Eagle FordBakken

kb/d

www.FGEnergy.com

Asia (incl. AU)Proven

Natural Gas

Reserves (tcf)

Technically

Recoverable Shale

Gas Resources

(tcf)

China 107 1,275

India 37.9 63

Pakistan 29.7 51

Australia 110 396**

Total 1,785

North America

USA 272.5 482

Canada 62 388

Mexico 12 681

Total 1,551

** Recently downgraded by Geoscience Australia

AfricaProven

Natural Gas

Reserves (tcf)

Technically

Recoverable

Shale Gas

Resources (tcf)

South Africa 485

Libya 54.7 290

Tunisia 2.3 18

Algeria 159 231

Morocco 0.1 11

Western Sahara 7

Mauritania 1 0

Total 1,042

Non-Conventional Supply: Shale Gas RevolutionContinues

EuropeProven

Natural Gas

Reserves (tcf)

Technically

Recoverable

Shale Gas

Resources (tcf)

France 0.2 180

Germany 6.2 8

Netherlands 49 17

Norway 72 83

UK 9 20

Denmark 2.1 23

Sweden 41

Poland 5.8 187

Turkey 0.2 15

Ukraine 39 42

Lithuania 4

Others* 2.71 19

Total 639

* Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania.

South AmericaProven

Natural Gas

Reserves (tcf)

Technically

Recoverable

Shale Gas

Resources (tcf)

Venezuela 178.9 11

Colombia 4 19

Argentina 13.4 774

Brazil 12.9 226

Chile 3.5 64

Uruguay 21

Paraguay 62

Bolivia 26.5 48

Total 1,225

Total RecoverableResource: 6,242 tcf

1

3

12

Alreadybanned!

69

8

10

2

11

7

5

4

15

www.FGEnergy.com

Future of Shale Gas Liquids Outside the US

The US resources are less than 8% of global resources.

Very little non-US information on organic content.

Speed of development outside the US will be slow due tolack of well servicing infrastructure.

Shale gas requires pipeline infrastructure and a market.

Shale gas exploration in China, Australia, Poland, andArgentina.

What is the potential for shale gas liquids by 2020-25? 5mmb/d? 10 mmb/d? Equivalent to Iraq or Saudi Arabiaproduction?

16

www.FGEnergy.com

17

Refining Sector: Near-Term Outlook OK,but 2015-17 will be Difficult.

Will Enough Capacity be Closed?

www.FGEnergy.com

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

0

4

8

12

16

20 Spare Capacity

Utilization after closures

Utilization (no closures)

Spare Capacity (mmb/d)

Pressure on Refining Sector—Falling Utilization

On the basis of current capacity +scheduled expansions, global

utilization rates are set to fall toabout 79% by 2015.

Global Refining Capacityand Utilization Rates

This is not feasible on asustainable basis!

To bring utilization rates back up to82-83% globally will require closure

of around 7 mmb/d of capacitybetween 2009 and 2015.

(2 mmb/d already confirmed)

18

www.FGEnergy.com

Refinery Closures and Sales Since 2008

Where?Who?

19

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

ConfirmedClosures

PotentialClosures

Sold For Sale Purchased

IOCs

Atlantic Indep.

Japanese Refiners

NOCs

Financials

Other

Action sincemid-2008

mmb/d

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Europe NorthAmerica

Asia LatAm Africa

For Sale

Sold/Purchased

Confirmed to close

Closed (August2012)

Actionsince 2008

mmb/d

www.FGEnergy.com

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Total AP Incremental Demand Total ME Incremental Demand

Total AP Incremental CDU Capacity Total ME Incremental CDU Capacitykb/d

East of Suez Refinery Build and Demand Growth

20

1st Wall ofRefiningCapacity

2nd Wall ofRefiningCapacity

Unit: mmb/d 2008-2009 2010-2013 2014-2017

AP CDU Addition 3.05 3.19 3.97

ME CDU Addition 0.39 0.42 2.30

AP Demand Growth 0.53 3.62 2.95

ME Demand Growth 0.57 0.81 1.22

Gap 2.34 (0.82) 2.10

www.FGEnergy.com

Who is Building East of Suez?

21

4,130

700940

664

2,506

5001,680

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Chinese NOCs Chinese NOCswith Crudes

Suppliers

Chinese NOCswith IOCs andME Suppliers

Indian NOCs ME NOCs ME NOCs withIOCs

Others (Net)

Total Net Refining Capacity Additions in East of Suez, 2012-202011,120 kb/d

kb/d

• NOCs will be involved in more than 90% of the refining capacity expansions in 2012-2020.

• Unlike the 2001-2010 period, independents will build much less refining capacity.• IOCs are only involved in joint-venture projects with Chinese and Middle East NOCs.

www.FGEnergy.com

Asia Pacific Refineries Becoming More Complex

Asia Pacific refineries are becoming more complex with higher conversion ratios, thusmore fuel oil will be converted to gasoline and diesel, leading to higher surplus oftransportation fuels and larger deficit of fuel oil.

22

30%

32%

34%

36%

38%

40%

42%

44%

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

mmb/dAP Cracking to CDU Ratio, 2008-2015

CDU Capacity Cracking-to-CDU Ratio (RHS)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

AP Incremental Cracking Capacity,2008-2015

Coker

HDC

FCC/RFCC

kb/d

Thermal cracking/Vis-breaking is not included because almost no newbuilds/expansions

www.FGEnergy.com

23

Incremental East of Suez Refinery Supply: 2010-2015Additional upgrading capacity increases East of Suez gasoline and diesel/gasoil supplysignificantly between 2010-2015.

Has too much upgrading been planned?

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

Fuel Oil

Diesel

Kero/Jet

Gasoline

Naphtha

LPG

kb/d

www.FGEnergy.com

Survival of the Fittest?

Shell ClydeShell Tabangao

Average Japaneserefinery

FPCC Yunlin

GS Caltex Yocheon

SK Energy Ulsan

S-Oil Ulsan

Reliance Jamnagar2nd Refinery

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Selective Refineries’ Complexities and Products Export Ratio,End 2010*

* Note: the bubble size represents the size of the refinery

Nelson Index

Exp

ort

Rat

io(T

ota

lExp

ort

/To

talP

rod

uct

ion

)

24

www.FGEnergy.com

Refinery Closures and Sales in Asia

25

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

Closures (2009-2011) Confirmed Closures Potential Closure Sold

Japan Taiwan China Singapore IOCs (Ex-Japan)

kb/d Closures (2009-2011):- 515 kb/d in Japan- 50 kb/d in China (localrefineries)

Confirmed Closures:- 279 kb/d in Japan- 200 kb/d in Australia(Shell and Caltex)

Potential Closures:- 500 kb/d in Japan- 112 kb/d in PH (Shell)- 205 kb/d in Taiwan- 700 kb/d in China (localrefineries)

Sold:- PetroChina boughtthe 107 kb/d Osaka refineryfrom JX Group and 50% stakeof the Singapore SRC refinery;- San Miguel bought EssoMalaysia's 85 kb/d refineryin Port Dickson

www.FGEnergy.com

East of Suez Products Trade: More Gasolineand Diesel Must Leave the Region

26

www.FGEnergy.com

India—Fearless Push Forward

27

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020

(Net

Imp

ort

)/

Net

Exp

ort

India Petroleum Product Balance

LPG

Naphtha

Gasoline

Kero/Jet

Diesel

Fuel Oil

kb/d

www.FGEnergy.com

China—Deficit in Products Expected to Enlarge by 2020

28

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020

(Net

Imp

ort

)/

Net

Exp

ort

China Petroleum Product Balance

LPG

Naphtha

Gasoline

Kero/Jet

Diesel

Fuel Oil

kb/d

www.FGEnergy.com

East of Suez Net Products Exports

kb/d 2010 2015 2020

LPG 38 50 81

Naphtha -439 -451 -882

Gasoline 221 73 313

Kero/jet 1,018 737 764

Diesel 907 828 968

Fuel Oil -927 -710 -838

29

Key Developments:

Naphtha and fuel oil continue to be in large net deficit.

Gasoline and middle distillates net exports set to increase due to rapid

expansion of refining capacity.

www.FGEnergy.com

Regional Products Trade – Pointers for the Future

Europe:• Oil demand declining• Squeeze on gasoline export markets

continue• Middle distillate imports remain high• Pressure on refining remains

North America:• Structural decline in oil demand• Latin American deficit will

remain (for now)• WTI price realignment: pressure

on refining will re-emerge?

Latin America:• Robust demand growth• Delays to refining capacity• Gasoline + MD deficit continues Africa:

• Refining expansion slower• Products imports remain

through mid term

Russia:• Shifting emphasis towards clean

product exports• Regaining lost European MD market• Eastwards export shift mainly to

crude oil

Asia:• Continued strong demand

growth• But refining capacity expansion

keeping pace• Naphtha and fuel oil deficits

continue

Middle East:• High demand growth but

slower refining expansion• Main growth in products

exports shifted beyond 2015?

30

www.FGEnergy.com

Gasoline: A Fuel of the Past?

31

www.FGEnergy.com

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Gasoline Demand by Region

N. America

Asia

Europe

Middle East

Global Total(Right Axis)

mmb/d mmb/d

• Bearish outlook, but gasoline will still remain world’s major road transport fuel.

• OECD demand set to decline—with the largest drop in North America led by the US.

• Non-OECD Asia will drive gasoline demand growth.

Global demand to peakaround 2017 at slightlyabove 23 mmb/d

Bearish Outlook for Global Gasoline Demand

32

www.FGEnergy.com

US Vehicle Efficiency—Affecting Demand Trend Now

8

9

10

11

12

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

New Registered Light Duty Vehicles

Fleet on the road

Lite

r/1

00

km

Gradual introduction of more efficient vehicles is starting to impact fleet average

33

www.FGEnergy.com

Asian Gasoline Demand Will Grow, But for How Long?

China’s gasoline demand to grow by more than 500 kb/d in the next five years and keeprising to 2.8 mmb/d in 2020 due to massive fleet expansion. Passenger car fleet to growto some 210 million in 2020 and 250 million in 2030.

Demand growth in India and Indonesia is also expected to be strong.

However, new technologies like engine downsizing, fuel efficient tires, hybrid vehicles,etc., will cap overall gasoline demand growth strongly in the next few decades.

34

0

2

4

6

8

0

1

2

3

4

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Asian Gasoline Demand

China

Japan + Korea

India +Indonesia

Rest of Asia

Asia

mmb/d mmb/d

www.FGEnergy.com

Bunker Sector: Specification Changes toImpact Bunker Demand

35

www.FGEnergy.com

2010

FO >4% FO 3.5% FO 1.5% FO 1%

Distillate >0.5% Distillate 0.1-0.5% Distillate <0.1%

2020 2030

How will Specification Changes Impact BunkerDemand?

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

mm

b/d

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

mm

b/d

Distillate

Residual

Distillate

Residual

Source: Outlook for Marine Bunkers and Fuel Oil to 2030 (FGE/Robin Meech)

36

Bunker Demand withIMO Global Cap in 2025

(base case)

Bunker Demand withIMO Global Cap in 2020

Additional 2.2 mmb/ddistillate demand vs 2011

Additional 1.3 mmb/ddistillate demand vs base case

Thank You

Asian Headquarters:

8 Eu Tong Sen Street,#20-89/90 The Central,Singapore 059818Tel: (65) 6222-0045Fax: (65) 6222-0309FGE@fgenergy.com

London – Singapore – Dubai – Beijing – Hawaii – Perth – Tokyo – New York – California

Global Headquarters:

133 Aldersgate StreetLondon, EC1A 4JAUnited KingdomTel: +44 (0) 20 7726 9570Fax: +44 (0) 20 7785 8161FGE@fgenergy.com

Global Offices:

Dubai, UAE +971-4439-0451Beijing, PRC +86 (10) 8480-2701/02Hawaii, US +1 (808) 944-3637Perth, Australia +61-402-000-565Tokyo, Japan FGE@fgenergy.comNew York, US FGE@fgenergy.comCalifornia, US FGE@fgenergy.com

37

www.FGEnergy.com

Appendix

38

www.FGEnergy.com

WORLD OIL SUPPLY/DEMAND & STOCK CHANGE

39

2010 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 2011 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 2012 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 2013

DEMAND

USA 19.2 19.1 18.8 19.0 18.9 19.0 18.4 18.7 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5 18.5

Canada/Mexico 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.5

Latin America 6.6 6.6 6.7 6.9 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.1 7.1

W Europe 14.9 14.5 14.4 15.1 14.5 14.6 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.1 14.1 13.8 13.5 13.9 13.9 13.8

FSU (apparent demand) 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.7 5.0 5.5 4.9 5.1 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.0

Other Europe 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

Japan 4.5 4.9 3.9 4.4 4.9 4.5 5.4 4.4 4.6 4.9 4.8 5.1 4.1 4.2 4.6 4.5

Korea/Aus/NZ 3.5 3.7 3.3 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.8 3.7

China (apparent demand, excl. strategic) 9.2 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.8 9.7 10.1 10.0 9.2 10.2 9.9 10.3 10.2 9.7 10.8 10.3

Other Asia-Pacific 10.6 10.8 10.8 10.5 11.0 10.8 11.1 11.2 10.8 11.3 11.1 11.4 11.4 11.5 11.6 11.5

Africa 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5

M East 8.2 8.0 8.3 8.9 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.7 9.4 8.7 8.8 8.5 9.0 9.5 9.1 9.0

Total Demand 89.7 90.3 88.5 91.2 91.5 90.4 91.0 90.8 91.3 92.8 91.5 92.1 90.8 91.9 93.1 92.2

SUPPLY

USA 7.6 7.6 7.8 7.8 8.3 7.9 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.9 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.3 9.1

Canada 3.4 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.9

Mexico 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8

North Sea 3.8 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 2.8 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.9 3.1

Total FSU 13.4 13.5 13.5 13.4 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.5 13.4 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.6 13.6

China 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2

Other Non-OPEC 12.6 12.7 12.4 12.6 12.6 12.6 12.0 11.9 12.2 12.3 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.3 12.4 12.3

Total Non-OPEC Output (Crude/NGLs) 47.9 48.2 47.6 47.5 48.3 47.9 48.2 47.9 47.8 48.8 48.2 48.9 49.0 49.0 49.2 49.0

Bio-liquids (ethanol/bio-gasoline, etc) 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1

GTL/CTL 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Processing Gain, balancing item etc 4.2 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9

Non-OPEC Supplies (incl. Indonesia) 54.2 54.5 53.9 53.8 54.7 54.2 54.4 54.1 54.0 55.2 54.4 55.3 55.4 55.4 55.6 55.4

Libya 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6

Iraq 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5

Other OPEC 25.5 26.4 27.0 27.6 27.8 27.2 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.1 27.6 26.5 26.1 26.1 25.6 26.1

Total OPEC Crude (excl. Indonesia) 29.4 30.3 29.9 30.4 31.0 30.4 31.7 32.2 32.2 31.9 32.0 31.5 31.2 31.2 30.7 31.2

NGLs/other 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.2

Total OPEC (excl. Indonesia) 34.8 35.9 35.5 36.1 36.8 36.1 37.6 38.2 38.2 37.9 38.0 37.6 37.4 37.4 36.9 37.4

Total Supply 89.0 90.4 89.4 89.9 91.5 90.3 92.0 92.3 92.2 93.1 92.4 92.9 92.8 92.8 92.5 92.8

STOCK CHANGE

OECD Company 0.0 -0.4 0.6 -0.1 -0.7 -0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 -0.2 0.3 -0.1 1.0 0.6 -1.3 0.0

Strategic/government (incl. China) 0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

Non-OECD/transit/floating/unreported -0.8 0.5 0.2 -0.9 0.5 0.1 0.5 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.6

lmplied Stock Change -0.6 0.1 0.9 -1.3 0.0 -0.1 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.8 2.0 0.9 -0.6 0.8

Reference items

Demand change year-on-year % 3.2% 2.7% -0.1% 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.8% 2.6% 0.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.8%

Call on OPEC crude (no stock change) 30.0 30.2 29.0 31.7 31.0 30.5 30.7 30.7 31.3 31.6 31.1 30.7 29.2 30.3 31.3 30.4

FSU Net Oil Exports 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.0 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.4 8.9 8.5 9.1 8.9 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0

End-period OECD company stocks (bill bbls) 2.59 2.64 2.63 2.57 2.61 2.64 2.68 2.66 2.65 2.75 2.80 2.68

End-period OECD stock cover (days) 58 57 57 56 59 58 58 58 60 62 62 58