stockup ™ takes the guesswork out of buy, sell, and hold! a technical presentation…
TRANSCRIPT
Stockup ™ Takes the guesswork out of Buy, Sell, and Hold!
A Technical Presentation…...
$ There are many stocks whose prices move cyclically on emotion and investor mood
$ That emotion/mood can be mathematically detected
$ The movement of a stock price can then be statistically predicted -- mitigating losses and generating investment profits.
Theory:
How does STOCKUP make it’s Buy / Sell / Hold recommendations?
$ Over time stocks move in cycles. In theory, the cycles can be predicted perfectly by a "perfect" Moving Average (MA).
$ Using advanced technologies, STOCKUP finds a "very good" moving average for each stock
$ A Moving Average is calculated by taking the stock closing price over a Period (length of time), then averaging the closing prices over that period.
$ For some stocks, a better predictor of the future is to use a Weighted MA where more significance is given to yesterday than the day before yesterday.
Moving Average
When a stock's price is greater than the MA, it is said to be "in zone” and statistically a good time to buy the stock.
$ When doing stock MA analyses, STOCKUP also shifts the MA around by an In Zone Factor (IZF).
$ The IZF affects the timing of STOCKUP-suggested actions.
$ In order to determine whether to buy, sell, or hold a stock, STOCKUP calculates the MA for a given stock using all combinations of Period , IZF, and Weighted MA.
$ In a process call Backtesting, STOCKUP simulates an investment of $10,000, for each combination of Period, IZF and Weighted MA, for each of the past 360 days.
Backtesting
For Each Stock
For this GRAPH ( Period, IZF & Weighted MA)
For Each Day = 360 days ago to yesterday
Get the stock closing price for the Day
Simulate Investment Action
Backtesting
If we already own the stock then
Stock price below the Out Zone? action = Sell all shares of the stock Stock price not below the Out Zone? action = Hold shares
If we do not own the stock then
Stock price above the In Zone? action = Buy as many shares of stock as possible Stock price is not above the In Zone? action = wait and do not buy any shares yet
Simulate Investment Action
Backtesting
For Each Stock For this GRAPH (combination of Period, IZF & MA) For Each Day = 360 days ago to yesterday Get the stock closing price for the Day Simulate Investment Action Repeat For Next Day and each day through yesterday
Backtesting
For Each Stock For this GRAPH (combination of Period, IZF & MA) For Each Day = 360 days ago to yesterday Get the stock closing price for the Day Simulate Investment Action Repeat For Next Day and each day through yesterday
Result = the yield for this particular graph Store the Result with this GRAPH If Result > Best Result So Far then make this the new Best GRAPH
Backtesting
For Each Stock For this GRAPH (combination of Period, IZF & MA) For Each Day = 360 days ago to yesterday Get the stock closing price for the Day Simulate Investment Action Repeat For Next Day Check Result for Best GRAPH so far
Next GRAPH
Backtesting
For Each Stock For this GRAPH (combination of Period, IZF & MA) For Each Day = 360 days ago to yesterday Get the stock closing price for the Day Simulate Investment Action Repeat For Next Day Check Result for Best GRAPH so far Next GRAPH
Issue Today’s Action Recommendation Based on Best Graph
Backtesting
Issue Today’s Action Recommendation
Get today's stock price for this stock
If today's stock price is > In Zone for Best GRAPH then Issue 'Buy' - Purchase recommended if not already ownedElse If today's stock price is < Out Zone for Best GRAPH then Issue 'Sell' - Sell is recommended -- Sell all shares ownedElse If the stock is already owned - 'Hold' the stock If the stock is not owned - 'Wait' to buy later
Backtesting
For Each Stock For this GRAPH (combination of Period, IZF & MA) For Each Day = 360 days ago to yesterday Get the stock closing price for the Day Simulate Investment Action Repeat For Next Day Check Result for Best GRAPH so far Next GRAPH Issue Today’s Action Recommendation
Next Stock
How does STOCKUP select those stocks that consistently result in the best yield ?
STOCKUP Stock Picking
$ Get all stocks from all exchanges.
$ Only include those stocks that have average daily volume of 500,000 trades per day and price at least $10.00. This is the initial selection pool.
$ Run the STOCKUP Dynamic Tester against the initial selection pool.
STOCKUP Stock Picking
The Dynamic Tester determines what STOCKUP's decision would have been for each day from 90 days ago through yesterday.
STOCKUP Stock Picking - Dynamic Tester
Go back 90 days and assume that is ‘todays date’
For each day from (‘todays date’ - 360) to ‘todays date’ Do complete backtesting and simulation Simulate doing the STOCKUP recommended action. Next day Repeat the same test for 89 days ago, 88 days ago, on
through yesterday -- each day simulating doing the recommended STOCKUP action.
STOCKUP Stock Picking - Dynamic Tester
TodayDay 0
450 days ago
306090120150180210240270300330360390420
STOCKUP Stock Picking - Dynamic Tester
In backtesting, STOCKUP goes back 360 days from today and does the graphing and investment simulation:
Day 360
Today
Day 0
Today450 days ago
306090120150180210240270300330360390420
STOCKUP Stock Picking - Dynamic Tester
The Dynamic Tester shifts back to 90 days ago and thendoes the graphing and investment simulation for 360 days prior to that to find what STOCKUP’s recommendation would have been for that day:
Day 90 is now Day 0360 days prior
Today450 days ago
306090120150180210240270300330360390420
STOCKUP Stock Picking - Dynamic Tester
Then the Dynamic Tester goes to 89 days ago and does the graphing and investment simulation for 360 days prior to that.
Day 89 is now Day 0360 Days Prior
Day 44
9
Day 89
TodayDay 0
450 days ago
306090120150180210240270300330360390420
STOCKUP Stock Picking - Dynamic Tester
This continues until STOCKUP’s recommendation for each day from 90 days ago to yesterday has been determined.
Day
450
Day
0
Day
30
Day
60
Day
90
Day
420
Day
390
Day
360
Day 90
Day 60
Day 30
Day 0
STOCKUP Stock Picking - Dynamic Tester
The results of the Dynamic Tester are:
- The number of scoops (buy/sell cycles)
- The number of win scoops (gain sales)
- The total dollars gained in win scoops
- The number of loss scoops (loss sales)
- The total dollars lost in loss scoops - 90-day yield/dollars
STOCKUP Stock Picking - Dynamic Tester
The pool of stocks is now reduced by including only those stocks with:
90-day yield of at least $1,000
# of win scoops greater than or equal to # of loss scoops
Total dollars gained at least double the total dollars lost
$ These remaining stocks are now called the 'Class A' stocks.
Go back 150 days and assume that is ‘todays date’ For each day from (‘todays date’ - 360) to ‘todays date’ Do complete backtesting and simulation Simulate doing the STOCKUP recommended action. Next day Repeat the same test for 149 days ago, 148 days ago, on
through yesterday -- each day simulating doing the recommended STOCKUP action.
STOCKUP Stock Picking - Dynamic Tester
The Dynamic Tester then determines what STOCKUP's decision would have been for each of the Class A stocks for each day from 150 days ago through yesterday.
STOCKUP Stock Picking - Dynamic Tester
The results of the Dynamic Tester for the Class A stocks are:
- The number of scoops (buy/sell cycles)
- The number of win scoops (gain sales)
- The total dollars gained in win scoops
- The number of loss scoops (loss sales)
- The total dollars lost in loss scoops - 150-day yield/dollars
STOCKUP Stock Picking
The pool of Class A stocks is further reduced byincluding only those stocks with:
150-day yield must be greater than the 90-day yield
# of win scoops greater than or equal to (# loss scoops - 1)
Total dollars gained at least double the total dollars lost
$ Remaining pool contains 30+ ’Star Class' stocks.
Star Class stocks:
$ STOCKUP is most successful in predicting price movement
$ Consistently higher yields!
STOCKUP Stock Picking
$ Generates 570 graphs for each stock, each graph containing 360 days data.
The Technology:
$ Generates 570 graphs for each stock, each graph containing 360 days data.
$ Stock Picking/Tester currently runs every 3 months
600 stocks x 90 days x 570 graphs = 30,780,000 graphs
Resulting in the Star Class stocks
The Technology
$ Generates 570 graphs for each stock, each graph containing 360 days data.
$ Stock Picking/Tester currently runs every 3 months
600 stocks x 90 days x 570 graphs = 30,780,000 graphs
Resulting in the Star Class stocks
$ Every 30 minutes: 30 Star class stocks x 570 graphs = 17,100 graphs+ 600 addt’l S&P & web stocks x 570 graphs = 342,000 graphs total every 30 minutes = 359,100 graphs
The Technology