stocksmart pakistan weekly update
TRANSCRIPT
AKD Research [email protected]
+92-21-111-253-111
Weekly Review
Market started the week under pressure as investors awaited MSCI’s decision of downgrading Pakistan to Frontier market status from Emerging Market, resulting in selling in some index heavy stocks while additional pressure was mounted on the market due to high trade deficit for Aug’21 coupled with depreciating PkR. However on fourth and fifth trading day of the week, market re-bounded, led by technology sector and pared up all the losses for the week, with KSE-100 closing at 47,198pts, up 0.51%WoW. Cement sector was among the major laggards for the week, losing 2.6%WoW as coal prices continue to trade near 10 year high amid increased demand for power generation in developed economies. Moreover, government providing additional power to offi-cials to monitor and control the prices of fifty categories of product including cement, steel also caused jitters among the investors, resulting in engineering sector losing 2.6% during the week. Refinery sector also remained among the laggards as the delay in approval of refinery policy con-tinues to be a drag, however it has been included in the agenda for next week’s CCOE’s meeting where an approval can be a significant trigger for the sector. Other major headlines during the week included: i) Cement sales growing by 23%YoY to 4.4mn tons in Aug’21, ii) Trade deficit wid-ening by 119.94%YoY in 2MFY22 to USD7.5bn against USD3.4bn last year, iii) MSCI announcing that it will reclassify the Pakistan Indexes from Emerging Markets to Frontier Markets, iv) Foreign exchange inflows through Roshan Digital Account (RDA) reaching USD2.1bn in 11MFY21, and v) The government starting the audit of all oil refineries and oil marketing companies (OMCs). Top performers of the market included i) PSEL (+31.3%WoW), ii) FABL (+20.3%WoW), iii) AGP (+15.0%WoW), iv) NESTLE (+12.8%WoW), and v) BNWM (+8.1%WoW). Meanwhile laggards included: i) EPCL (-13.2%WoW), ii) GATI (-10.7%WoW), iii) SCBPL (-9.8%WoW), iv) HCAR (-9.2%WoW), and v) HGFA (-7.9%WoW). Flow wise, foreigners remained net sellers with an outflow of USD18.6mn, followed by Banks/DFIs with a net sell of USD3.76mn while Individuals remained on the buying side with a net buy of USD12.86mn. Volume leaders during the week were i) TPL (174.7mn), ii) TELE (154.4mn), iii) GGL (124.8mn), iv) WTL (120.43mn), and v) ANL (93.5mn).
StockSmart
AKD Equity Research / Pakistan
Pakistan Weekly Update
Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
Important disclosures
Copyright©2021 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.
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The market is likely to continue the momentum gained in the last few trading sessions where particularly technology sector is expected to remain in limelight while additional interest can be witnessed in stocks newly added to MSCI list. After being downgraded to Frontier markets, next big checkpoint remains IMF board’s approval of next review where a successful review can instill optimism in the market. We continue to advocate building positions in thematic plays such as in Cements, Steel, and Construction-Allied, and Textiles (on currency devaluation).
Outlook
Top-5 Volume Leaders
Symbol Volume (mn)
TPL : 174.66
TELE : 154.39
GGL : 124.80
WTL : 120.43
ANL : 93.53
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Indic e s KSE- 10 0 KSE- 3 0
This week 47,198 18,785
Last week 46,957 18,851
Change 0.51% - 0.35%
Indic e s KMI- 3 0 Allsha re
This week 76,996 32,388
Last week 77,116 32,203
- 0.15% 0.58%
Mkt Ca p. PkRbn US$ bn
This week 8,255 49.14
Last week 8,241 49.38
Avg. Da ily Turnove r ('mn sha re s)
This week 428.67
Last week 455.00
Change - 5.8%
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Index & Volume Chart KSE100 Gainers & Losers
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10 September 2021
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AKD Securities Limited
10 September 2021
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
This Week’s Daily Reports
2
OGDC: Best placed amid oil price upsurge , (AKD Daily, Sep 10, 2021)
OGDC continues to trade at undemanding valuations even as crude oil prices witness a 45% CYTD increase. Going forward, the oil demand outstripping production in 2022 is expected to be contained by strengthening US$. We therefore, incorporate oil prices for FY22/23 at US$68/60 per bbl and USD PkR exchange rate of 163/171 in our projections.
OGDC stands out in the E&P sector with a diversified production base, where c. 70% of oil and gas production emanating from 6 and 3 fields, respectively, as opposed to more concentrated production base of other players.
While participation in Abu Dhabi’s offshore block 5 exploration concession agreement may keep exploratory expenditure elevated, the stock is still trading at undemanding valuations (FY22/23 P/E of 3.6/3.7x), underscoring our Buy stance (TP: PkR156/sh).
Meanwhile, structural reforms in energy chain may likely result in higher payouts from OGDC. The GoP has projected dividend expectation from OGDC at PkR15/sh in FY22 budget—possible if PHPL uses cash inflow from GoP to buy back TFCs from OGDC, opening up payout potential for the latter.
Pakistan Commodities: Commodity prices remaining strong, (AKD Daily, Sep 09, 2021)
Global commodities have remained strong in the last one month where demand side damp-ness has resulted in a slight MoM decline in oil prices while supply tightness has resulted in wheat prices increasing. On the other hand, coal prices continue their upward trek as power generation demand remained strong.
Crude oil prices declined 4%MoM to US$72/bbl in Aug'21 due to strengthening dollar as FED announced a tapering off of its US$120bn bond buying program. This led to a continuous 6 days’ decline of oil price during the third week of the Aug’21, further exacerbated by spread of COVID’19 delta variant.
FAO Food price index averaged 127.4pts in Aug’21, up 3.1%MoM reflecting the strong gains in the sugar, vegetable oils and cereal sub-indices. FAO Cereal was up 3.4%MoM on the back of increase in wheat prices while FAO was marginally down.
International scrap prices have decreased by 6%MoM in Aug’21 to currently hover around at US$450/ton compared to last 3 months avg. of US$493/ton as global demand slows with eco-nomic recovery stalling on the back of global floods and increasing Delta variant cases in major scrap trading regions.
Even though oil prices have stabilized, increase in coal prices will result in increased cost of imports while FAO index remaining strong will continue to provide fuel to CPI as well. Overall, movements in commodity prices need to be watched closely from a macro perspective.
MSCI Review: Back to Frontier Market, (AKD Daily, Sep 08, 2021)
A move that was widely anticipated, MSCI has officially downgraded Pakistan from MSCI EM index to MSCI FM index, thus bringing an end to country’s 4yr long stay in the EM index. The decision was announced in the early morning hours and followed feedback received from mar-ket participants over reclassification.
The transition from EM to FM index will be a one step process and will coincide with Nov’21 Semi-Annual Index Review (SAIR). Simulated results show that this would lead to the inclusion of four securities in the MSCI Frontier Markets Index with an estimated index weight of 1.90%.
Market dataflow suggests that total AUMs in EM currently stand at US$1.8trn whereas the total AUMs of FM currently stand at US$15bn. Therefore, given the weight Pakistan had in EM and likely weight it will have in FM, the net outflow will settle around US$70mn—US$80mn. Further flows may be unlocked upon classification in MSCI FM 100 index and 15% Country Capped Index.
Market might take a knee-jerk reaction in the immediate aftermath of the classification but the reclassification comes with a potential silver lining owing to Pakistan’s increased weight in FM index (~1.9%) and FM100 index (~5.5%) as opposed to a cumulative weight of 2bps in MSCI EM
Sep 07, 2021
Sep 10, 2021
Sep 09, 2021
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Sep 08, 2021
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AKD Securities Limited
10 September 2021
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
This Week’s Daily Reports
3
index. Once the early jitters subside, the benchmark may post a solid price performance on the back of strong fundamentals (D/Y: 7.8% and PER: 5.7x).
Pakistan Technology: IPO_Octopus Digital-subscribe till cap of PkR40.6 , (AKD Daily, Sep 07, 2021)
Octopus Digital is set to go public where it plans to raise an amount of PkR793mn by offer-ing 27.4mn shares at a floor price of PkR29/sh. Octopus Digital Ltd. is a wholly owned sub-sidiary of Avanceon Ltd.. Company plans to develop 29 independent intellectual properties under different categories from which company will be providing two main offerings, Top-ware and Omni Connect.
Pakistan is going through an increase in acceptance of digitization where the industrial sec-tor is also trying to catch up with the global norms, driving phenomenal growth in revenues of SYS/AVN at a CAGR of 41/41% for CY15-20.
Octopus Digital expects revenue to stage a CAGR of 60% for CY20-26 while bottomline is expected to increase by 63% over the period where initial growth is expected to arise from AMS services while from 2023 onwards, Topware and then later Omni Connect are to form the backbone of growth as company expands its services overseas.
Even though the prospects remain bright, projections provided by the management look optimistic given historically AVN’s revenue has grown at a CAGR of 41% over CY15-20 while revenues form AMS have grown at a CAGR of 19%. Also, Topware and Omni Connect will be new products and can potentially take time to create a space for themselves.
We have used P/E and P/S based on a mix of projections provided by the company and lat-est reported result to incorporate a toned down version of growth and even after that, our TP comes out at PkR63.7/sh, and hence we adopt the stance of ‘subscribe till cap of PkR40.6/sh’ for the stock.
Pakistan cement: Local cement sales increase by 37%YoY for Aug'21, (AKD Daily, Sep 06, 2021)
Local cement dispatches for the month of Aug’21 clocked in 3.8mn tons, up 37/11%YoY/MoM where low base effect played its part as COVID-19 related restrictions kept the base low for Aug’20 while for Jul’21, low number of working days due to Eid holidays played a part.
Overall, for 8MCY21, local dispatches have increased by 21%YoY to 32mn tons while exports have increased by 8%YoY taking total dispatches for 8MCY21 to 37mn tons, up 19%YoY.
A number of factors have converged to send coal prices to a 13 year high where as soon as decreasing gas prices in Europe provided hope of a decline in coal prices, Hurricane Ida has caused a storm in energy markets, adversely affecting LNG supply hence pushing coal prices even higher.
Even though sector has remained under pressure recently due to increasing coal prices, we expect the sector to come back into limelight in 2QFY22 where we continue our preference for LUCK (TP: PkR1289/sh) and MLCF (TP: PkR80/sh).
AKD Securities Limited
10 September 2021
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
4
Commodities
International Major Currencies
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Major World Indices’ Performance
Source: Bloomberg
TRJ-CRB Index
Source: Bloomberg
PkR/US$ Trend
Source: Bloomberg
SPOT Units 10-Sep-21 3-Sep-21 WoW CYTD
TRJ-CRB Points 218.4741 220.1137 -0.74% 30.20%
Nymex (WTI) US$/bbl. 69.62 69.29 0.48% 43.49%
ICE Brent US$/bbl. 72.91 72.29 0.86% 42.49%
N. Gas Henry Hub US$/Mmbtu 4.97 4.71 5.52% 107.95%
Cotton USd/Pound 103.65 103 0.63% 22.52%
Gold US$/Tr.Oz 1792.82 1827.73 -1.91% -5.56%
Sliver US$/Tr.Oz 24.0681 24.716 -2.62% -8.84%
Copper US$/MT 9369.25 9420.5 -0.54% 20.91%
Platinum US$/Oz 979.99 1026.76 -4.56% -8.59%
Coal US$/MT 153.45 153.5 -0.03% 76.28%
SPOT 10-Sep-21 3-Sep-21 Chg +/- WoW CYTD
Dollar Index 92.482 92.035 0.447 0.49% 2.83%
USD/PkR 168.086 166.863 1.224 0.73% 5.16%
USD/JPY 109.880 109.710 0.170 0.15% 6.42%
EUR/USD 1.183 1.188 -0.005 -0.45% -3.18%
GBP/USD 1.387 1.387 0.000 0.01% 1.48%
AUD/USD 0.740 0.746 -0.006 -0.78% -3.80%
NZD/USD 0.715 0.716 -0.001 -0.11% -0.47%
CHF/USD 0.918 0.913 0.004 0.45% 3.65%
CAD/USD 1.259 1.252 0.007 0.53% -1.06%
USD/KRW 1,169 1,157 12.050 1.04% 7.62%
CNY/USD 6.439 6.455 -0.016 -0.25% -1.35%
Country Bloomberg Code 10-Sep-21 3-Sep-21 WoW CYTD
Pakistan KSE100 Index 47,198 46,957 0.51% 7.9%
Srilanka CSEALL Index 8,865 9,317 -4.84% 30.9%
Thailand SET Index 1,635 1,650 -0.91% 12.8%
Indonesia JCI Index 6,095 6,127 -0.52% 1.9%
Malaysia FBMKLCI Index 1,576 1,589 -0.83% -3.1%
Philippines PCOMP Index 6,971 6,897 1.06% -2.4%
Vietnam VNINDEX Index 1,345 1,335 0.80% 21.9%
Hong Kong HSI Index 26,206 25,902 1.17% -3.8%
Singapore FSSTI Index 3,099 3,084 0.48% 9.0%
Brazil IBX Index 49,445 50,175 -1.45% -1.9%
India SENSEX Index 58,305 58,130 0.30% 22.1%
China SHCOMP Index 3,703 3,582 3.39% 6.6%
S&P SPX Index 4,493 4,535 -0.93% 19.6%
DJIA INDU Index 34,879 35,369 -1.38% 14.0%
NASDAQ Composite CCMP Index 15,248 15,364 -0.75% 18.3%
UK UKX Index 7,049 7,138 -1.26% 9.1%
Germany DAX Index 15,685 15,781 -0.61% 14.3%
Qatar DSM Index 11,100 11,071 0.26% 6.4%
Abu Dhabi ADSMI Index 7,861 7,653 2.71% 55.8%
Dubai DFMGI Index 2,908 2,912 -0.17% 16.7%
Kuwait KWSEIDX Index 6,633 6,633 0.00% 0.0%
Oman MSM30 Index 3,960 3,974 -0.35% 8.2%
Saudi Arabia SASEIDX Index 11,418 11,320 0.87% 31.4%
MSCI EM MXEF Index 1,300 1,316 -1.21% 0.7%
MSCI FM MXFM Index 664 662 0.36% 16.2%
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AKD Securities Limited
10 September 2021
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Chart Bank
FIPI Flows for the week
Advance to Decline Ratio
AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index
LIPI Flows for the week
Average PIB and E/Y differential
KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM
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KSE100 MSCI EM
MSCI FM
(3,411)
(1,904)(1,631)
(5,866) (5,807)
(7,000)
(6,000)
(5,000)
(4,000)
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6-Sep-21 7-Sep-21 8-Sep-21 9-Sep-21 10-Sep-21
(US$'000)Ind., 12.86
Co., (0.57)
Bank/DFI, (3.76)
NBFC, 0.13
M.Funds, (2.60)
Ins , 6.20
Others , 3.28 Prop. Trading
, 3.07
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KSE-All Share Index AKD Universe
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Earning Yield PIB Yield
7
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
AKD Universe Active Coverage Cluster’s Valuations
10 September 2021
UR Under Review Source: AKD Research
Stocks Symbol Price TP Stance EPS PE(x) P/B DY(%)
(PkR) (PkR) 20 21F 22F 20 21F 22F 20 21F 22F 20 21F 22F
Automobile and Parts
Indus Motors INDU 1,315.6 1,500.0 Buy 64.7 156.6 159.4 20.3 8.4 8.25 2.5 2.3 2.1 2.3 7.4 8.0
Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 296.4 396.0 Buy (19.3) 30.7 47.9 n.a 9.7 6.19 1.0 0.9 0.8 - 2.1 3.2
Cements
DG Khan Cement DGKC 101.6 209.7 Buy (4.9) 9.0 13.5 n.a 11.3 7.51 0.7 0.6 0.6 - 1.8 4.0
Lucky Cement LUCK 785.4 1,289.2 Buy 10.3 43.5 52.2 76.0 18.1 15.04 2.6 2.2 2.0 - 1.1 2.0
Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF 40.3 80.1 Buy (3.2) 3.4 6.2 n.a 11.8 6.54 1.4 1.2 1.0 - 1.7 6.0
Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL 19.0 39.1 Buy (0.0) 2.5 3.5 n.a 7.6 5.48 1.3 1.3 1.2 - 10.5 14.6
Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 110.4 138.0 Buy (0.9) 7.5 10.0 n.a 14.6 11.01 1.9 1.7 1.5 - - -
Cherat Cement Co Limited CHCC 162.5 172.0 Sell (9.7) 16.5 16.3 n.a 9.8 9.97 1.9 1.8 2.9 - 1.9 2.0
Engineering
Amreli Steels Ltd. ASTL 42.2 64.0 Buy (3.8) 4.6 5.5 n.a 9.2 7.74 1.1 1.0 0.9 - - 2.4
Fertilizers
Engro Corporation ENGRO 285.8 320.0 Buy 28.7 51.2 50.2 10.0 5.6 5.69 0.7 0.6 0.6 9.1 10.5 10.5
Engro Fertil izers Limited EFERT 74.1 74.7 Buy 13.6 11.1 10.4 5.5 6.7 7.10 2.2 2.3 2.4 17.5 16.20 14.85
Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 24.0 37.3 Buy 2.3 5.3 5.3 10.2 4.5 4.51 1.6 1.1 0.9 - - -
Fauji Fertil izer Company FFC 106.1 150.2 Buy 16.4 18.2 19.3 6.5 5.8 5.49 3.4 2.9 2.5 10.6 12.3 13.2
Fatima Fertil izer FATIMA 30.3 39.0 Buy 6.3 4.7 3.9 4.8 6.5 7.71 0.8 0.7 0.7 8.2 6.1 5.3
Chemical
Engro Polymer & Chemicals EPCL 56.1 74.1 Buy 6.3 13.0 8.4 8.9 4.3 6.66 2.0 1.4 1.2 2.2 4.7 3.0
Oil & Gas
Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 88.6 156.4 Buy 23.3 22.1 24.6 3.8 4.0 3.60 0.6 0.5 0.5 7.6 7.9 9.0
Pak Oilfields POL 390.0 406.0 Buy 57.7 47.1 50.2 6.8 8.3 7.77 2.7 2.6 2.5 12.8 12.6 7.7
Pakistan Petroleum PPL 78.2 155.0 Buy 18.2 18.7 18.2 4.3 4.2 4.30 0.6 0.6 0.5 1.3 5.1 7.7
Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 7.2 UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR
Attock Petroleum APL 334.6 406.8 Buy 10.1 49.4 40.2 33.0 6.8 8.32 1.8 1.5 1.4 2.7 4.9 6.0
Pakistan State Oil PSO 214.2 305.6 Buy (13.8) 62.1 32.7 n.a 3.4 6.55 0.9 0.7 0.7 - 5.6 6.3
Power
Hub Power Co. HUBC 79.2 168.0 Buy 20.1 26.0 25.1 3.9 3.0 3.16 1.2 1.0 0.8 - 9.4 -
K-Electric Co. KEL 3.7 UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR
Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 38.3 UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR
Cable & Electrical Goods
Pak Electron Ltd PAEL 32.7 48.1 Buy 0.1 2.7 4.2 364.1 11.9 7.74 0.4 0.4 0.4 - 3.7 5.5
Personal Goods
Nishat Mills NML 96.0 132.0 Buy 10.0 13.7 14.4 9.6 7.0 6.66 0.5 0.5 0.4 4.2 5.7 6.8
Nishat Chunian Ltd. NCL 51.9 61.7 Buy 1.1 25.6 14.7 47.0 2.0 3.53 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.9 8.4 8.4
Banks
Allied Bank Limited ABL 69.6 109.8 Buy 16.0 12.5 13.6 4.3 5.6 5.12 0.6 0.6 0.6 11.5 12.9 12.9
Bank Al Habib BAHL 68.9 91.5 Buy 16.2 16.4 16.9 4.3 4.2 4.08 0.9 0.8 0.8 6.5 8.7 8.7
Bank AlFalah BAFL 33.4 51.9 Buy 6.1 7.1 6.5 5.5 4.7 5.13 0.6 0.5 0.5 12.0 12.0 12.0
Habib Bank Limited HBL 115.8 174.6 Buy 21.1 25.7 24.2 5.5 4.5 4.78 0.6 0.6 0.5 3.7 6.9 6.9
Habib Metropolitan Bank HMB 45.8 56.8 Buy 11.5 11.4 10.6 4.0 4.0 4.30 0.8 0.7 0.6 9.8 8.7 7.7
MCB Bank Limited MCB 156.0 239.6 Buy 24.8 24.3 26.9 6.3 6.4 5.81 1.0 0.9 0.9 12.8 12.5 12.8
Meezan Bank Limited MEBL 146.7 137.0 Sell 15.8 17.1 18.1 9.3 8.6 8.09 2.5 2.3 2.0 4.5 5.5 5.5
National Bank of Pakistan NBP 32.8 50.4 Buy 14.4 13.4 12.8 2.3 2.4 2.55 0.3 0.2 0.2 - - 15.2
United Bank Ltd UBL 116.0 142.5 Buy 17.0 18.4 20.1 6.8 6.3 5.77 0.7 0.6 0.6 10.3 10.3 10.3
Bank of Punjab BOP 8.29 13.9 Buy 2.6 1.8 1.9 3.2 4.6 4.34 0.4 0.4 0.4 12.2 12.2 12.2
8
AKD Securities Limited
10 September 2021
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
AKD Universe Coverage Cluster’s Performance
Source: PSX & AKD Research
Stocks Symbol Price 1 Year 1 Year
10-Sep-21 1M 3M 6M 12M CYTD High Low
KSE-100 Index 47,198.29 0.1 -2.2 8.0 10.7 7.9 48,726.1 39,072.5
Automobile and Parts
Indus Motors INDU 1,315.62 4.0 0.7 33.9 -1.4 12.6 1368.36 967.34
Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 296.35 -16.9 -10.9 24.3 24.7 22.5 362.91 179.34
Cements
DG Khan Cement DGKC 101.60 -4.5 -21.0 -12.4 -11.7 -11.3 141.48 101.07
Lucky Cement LUCK 785.42 -9.2 -14.2 -3.4 17.9 12.8 940.74 629.31
Maple Leaf Cement MLCF 40.25 -8.2 -14.5 -4.9 1.4 -10.6 49.25 35.36
Fauji Cement Company FCCL 19.04 -11.7 -20.9 -17.6 -13.9 -12.1 27.21 18.69
Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 110.36 -7.2 -17.5 -3.1 11.2 6.8 142.21 83.81
Cherat Cement Limited CHCC 162.48 -1.9 -12.3 6.7 18.9 11.9 192.32 109.08
Engineering
Amrel i Steel Ltd ASTL 42.19 -3.8 -8.0 3.2 -19.5 -12.6 51.89 36.75
Fertilizers
Engro Polymer Chemicals EPCL 56.11 -0.8 16.9 21.2 37.7 18.1 61.94 39.98
Engro Ferti l i zers Ltd. EFERT 74.06 -4.3 4.6 14.1 27.1 17.1 77.38 54.46
Engro Chemical ENGRO 285.78 -2.5 -9.8 -3.2 -1.7 -7.0 319.90 273.14
Fatima Ferti l i zer FATIMA 30.31 7.3 4.9 4.5 -4.9 4.2 30.85 26.01
Fauji Fert. Bin Qas im Ltd. FFBL 23.96 -7.8 -14.4 -4.4 35.3 -5.4 29.15 15.37
Fauji Ferti l i zer Company FFC 106.05 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.1 0.9 110.10 96.92
Cable & Electrical Goods
Pak Elektron Limited PAEL 32.74 2.3 -8.9 1.0 -15.6 -18.4 42.38 29.79
Oil & Gas
Oi l & Gas Development OGDC 88.99 -3.5 -3.3 -15.1 -15.7 -14.2 115.89 87.11
Pak Oi l fields POL 389.96 -0.4 3.4 -0.7 4.4 3.5 423.11 300.83
Pakis tan Petroleum Ltd. PPL 78.16 -3.5 -13.8 -9.8 -23.3 -13.5 102.21 78.85
Pakis tan State Oi l PSO 214.17 -1.7 -8.9 -1.2 8.5 1.8 253.36 182.04
Attock Petroleum Ltd. APL 334.64 0.3 0.6 2.4 -4.0 0.7 382.27 305.52
Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 7.17 -13.7 -35.8 -28.4 -66.2 -51.2 22.75 6.32
Power
Hub Power Co. HUBC 79.23 6.3 0.9 -3.6 -1.2 -0.1 91.32 71.77
K-Electric Limited KEL 3.65 -4.2 -13.5 -5.2 -12.5 -6.6 4.69 3.55
Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 38.26 -3.1 -14.2 -3.9 31.2 40.7 46.66 22.64
Personal Goods
Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd. NCL 51.89 0.3 -1.1 16.7 29.4 23.3 54.91 34.64
Nishat Mi l l s NML 95.99 -0.8 -6.6 -2.3 -7.6 -5.7 123.09 80.03
Banks
Al l ied Bank Limited ABL 69.60 -3.3 -1.2 -12.0 -19.0 -18.5 89.08 68.49
Bank AlHabib Limited BAHL 68.94 -0.5 -5.5 4.3 13.2 5.8 74.45 58.08
Bank AlFa lah BAFL 33.35 2.4 2.7 3.3 1.9 0.1 35.21 28.87
Habib Bank Limited HBL 115.76 -9.9 -13.9 -1.8 -14.3 -12.5 143.20 113.60
Bank of Punjab BOP 8.29 1.2 1.0 -7.1 -17.4 -10.6 10.04 7.65
Habib Metropol i tan Bank HMB 45.75 10.9 13.0 28.8 36.6 17.3 43.64 30.76
MCB Bank Limited MCB 156.04 -5.8 -5.8 -8.9 -4.8 -8.4 183.49 149.13
Meezan Bank Limited MEBL 146.69 8.7 30.1 32.0 80.6 40.5 162.18 74.38
National Bank of NBP 32.82 -5.4 -10.6 -1.6 -21.2 -23.6 43.88 30.47
United Bank Ltd UBL 115.98 -9.2 -11.8 -7.8 -8.3 -7.8 143.68 106.46
Absolute Performance (%)
9
AKD Securities Limited
10 September 2021
StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
Economic Snapshot
Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research
End Month Data Units Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21
Monetary Rates
T-Bills - 3M % 6.99 n.a 7.17 7.15 7.14 n.a 7.17 7.58 7.40 7.34 7.31 7.26 7.24
T-Bills-6M % 7.18 n.a 7.20 7.20 7.18 n.a 7.49 7.80 7.68 7.55 7.57 7.54 7.48
T-Bills-12M % 7.15 n.a n.a 7.29 7.29 n.a 7.79 7.79 7.69 7.69 7.66 7.64 n.a
PIB10Y % 9.40 9.60 10.00 9.90 10.00 10.05 10.07 10.38 10.20 9.90 9.92 9.94 9.92
KIBOR6M % 7.20 7.30 7.10 7.10 7.10 7.10 7.30 7.53 7.52 7.43 7.47 7.37 7.35
Discount rate % 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.00
Policy rate % 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00
Inflation
National CPI Inflation % 8.20 9.00 8.90 8.30 8.00 5.7 8.70 9.10 11.1 10.9 9.7 8.4 8.4
Core inflation (Urban) % 7.10 7.70 7.30 7.00 7.00 5.0 8.60 8.70 11.0 10.8 9.7 8.7 8.3
Core inflation (Rural) % 9.90 11.10 11.30 10.50 9.50 6.6 8.80 9.50 11.3 10.9 9.7 8.0 8.4
Food inflation (Urban) % 11.30 12.40 13.90 13.00 12.60 7.3 10.30 11.50 15.7 15.3 11.0 9.4 10.2
Food inflation (Rural) % 13.50 15.80 17.70 16.10 13.40 7.2 7.10 11.10 14.1 12.8 9.8 7.3 9.1
External Indicators
Export (PBS) US$(mn) 1,584 1,889 2,081 2,171 2,366 2,146 2,068 2,361 2,219 1,671 2,692 2,330 2,234
Import (PBS) US$(mn) 3,324 4,321 3,820 4,229 4,986 4,820 4,623 5,632 5,260 5,308 6,286 5,434 6,463
Trade Deficit (PBS) US$(mn) (1,740) (2,432) (1,739) (2,058) (2,620) (2,674) (2,555) (3,271) (3,041) (3,645) (3,594) (3,104) (4,229)
Export (SBP) 1,628 2,027 1,926 2,308 2,204 2,046 2,176 2,612 2,300 2,128 2497 2,257 n.a
Import (SBP) 3,248 4,120 3,543 4,260 4,784 4,415 5,027 5,222 4,969 4,953 6322 5,396 n.a
Trade Deficit (SBP) (1,620) (2,093) (1,617) (1,952) (2,580) (2,369) (2,737) (2,610) (2,669) (2,825) (3,825)
(3,139) n.a
Home Remittances US$(mn) 2,095 2,284 2,284 2,339 2,437 2,274 2,266 2,725 2,778 2,491 2,688 2,764 n.a
Current Account US$(mn) 211 73 415 447 -652 -210 -31 -47 -188 632 -1,644 n.a n.a
Banking Sector
Deposits PkR(bn) 16,327 16,886 16,664 16,841 17,876 17,086 17,257 17,906 17,561 17,955 19,796 18,839 19,208
Advances PkR(bn) 8,053 8,094 8,116 8,166 8,497 8,467 8,527 8,600 8,665 8,811 8,996 8,878 8,936
Investments PkR(bn) 10,869 11,090 10,942 11,071 11,552 11,421 11,612 12,553 12,418 13,068 13,742 14,102 13,902
W.A.lending rate % 8.72 8.26 9.09 8.83 8.64 8.59 8.67 8.59 8.71 8.63 8.69 8.53 n.a
W.A. deposit rate % 3.84 3.77 3.74 3.64 3.61 3.58 3.56 3.53 3.53 5.11 3.5 3.58 n.a
Spread rate % 4.88 4.49 5.35 5.19 5.03 5.01 5.11 5.06 5.18 3.52 5.19 4.95 n.a
Currency
Fx Reserves US$(mn) 19,908 19,385 19,399 20,267 20,512 20,149 20,076 20,604 22,690 23,273 24,396 24,717 24,644
USD PkR-Interbank PkR/USD 167.95 166.02 162.82 159.37 160.28 160.31 159.22 156.04 153.27 153.6 156.5 159.7 163.7
10
AKD Securities Limited StockSmart
Pakistan Weekly Update
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AKD Research Team
Analyst Tel no. E-mail Coverage
Usman Zahid +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] Executive Director Research Jehanzaib Zafar +92 111 253 111 (685) [email protected] Commercial Banks Hamza Kamal +92 111 253 111 (634) [email protected] Economy Shahrukh Saleem, CFA +92 111 253 111 (637) [email protected] Cement & OMCs Sector AiIia Naeem +92 111 253 111 (603) [email protected] Fertilizer & Power Sector Mohsin Ali +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] Steel & Textile Saroash saleem +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] Autos Qasim Anwar +92 111 253 111 (680) [email protected] Technical Analysis Nasir Khan +92 111 253 111 (639) [email protected] Research Production Faisal Tufail +92 111 253 111 (647) [email protected] Research Production Tariq Mehmood +92 111 253 111 (643) [email protected] Library Operations
10 September 2021
New Rating Definitions
Buy > 14.5% expected total return (Rf: 8.5% + Rp: 6%)
Neutral > 8.5% to < 14.5% expected total return
Sell < 8.5% expected total return (Rf: 8.5%)