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Weekly Review

The tribunal’s report on Model town incident, though initially ignored by the market, later on sent shockwaves within the investor community ramming the index into a heavy red zone. Followed by various parties vowing to take a stand against the accused, the bench-mark index shed 930pts (down 2.33%WoW) closing the week at 39,080pts. Furthermore, OGRA’s adamant stance towards the implementation of proposed tariff regime for gas utili-ties dragged SNGP/SSGC down by 12.7/12.3%WoW while PSO/KAPCO slid 7.26/13.94%WoW as news circulated regarding PSO suspending fuel oil imports further aggravated by the resumption of second LNG terminal (after a brief breakdown). Despite the negativity, PSMC rallied 4.4%WoW as the auto assembler announced the launch of 4 new products including the auto gear shift version of Cultus and Mega Carry. In this scenario, investors preferred to play with small cap scrips where 1) WTL (69.33mn shares), 2) KEL (57.87mn shares), 3) TRG (52.88mn shares), 4) JPGL (43.09mn shares) and 5) ANL (30.32mn shares) lead the board pushing overall volumes up by 8.74%WoW to 141.27mn. Other highlights of the week were: 1) US defense secretary Mattis meeting the high-ups of Pakistan acknowl-edging the efforts of Pakistan against war on terror, later re-iterated by the Pentagon’s statement as well, 2) PSX proposing to widen existing scrip-level circuit breakers (CBs) to maximum 15%, 3) Sindh notifying an additional subsidy of PkR9.3/kg on sugar exports, 4) (CPI) going up 3.97%YoY in November and 5) Foreign reserves jumping to US$21bn after the country received US$2.5bn through auction of Sukuk and Eurobond. Performance wise, scrips (from AKD universe) leading the bourse were: 1) PSMC (+4.40%WoW), 2) PPL (3.90%WoW), 3) NCL (1.52%WoW), 4) NML (+0.89%) and 5) POL (+0.77%WoW), while laggards included 1) KAPCO (-13.94%WoW), 2) FCCL (-9.62%WoW), 3) PSO (-7.26%WoW), 4) EFOODS (-6.62%WoW) and 5) ASTL (-6.06%). Foreigners gathered stocks worth US$1.04mn during the week, as against a heavy outflow of US$39.54mn last week.

StockSmart

AKD Equity Research / Pakistan

Pakistan Weekly Update

Important disclosures including investment banking relationships and analyst certification at end of this report. AKD Securities does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of the report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Important disclosures

Copyright©2017 AKD Securities Limited. All rights reserved. The information provided on this document is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities or its affiliates to any registration requirement within such jurisdiction or country. Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by AKD Securities or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities or provide any investment advice or service. AKD Securities does not warrant the accuracy of the information provided herein.

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Pakistan Stock Exchange

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Movements on the political front with formation of alliances against the incumbent party may further weaken investor confidence going forward. Apart from this, market will react to auto numbers due to be released next week by PAMA. On the international front, FOMC meeting is scheduled on 12/13th December where its hawkish stance might create further pressure on the sustainability of PkR/US$ parity at its current levels.

8 December 2017

Outlook

Index & Volume Chart

Source: PSX & AKD Research

Universe Gainers & Losers

40,050 39,945 39,907

38,785

39,080

38,600

38,800

39,000

39,200

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39,600

39,800

40,000

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20,000

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4-Dec 5-Dec 6-Dec 7-Dec 8-Dec

(Index)(Shrs'000)

Ready Volume (LHS) KSE100 Index (RHS)

Indices KSE-100 KSE-30

This w eek 39,080 19,491

Last w eek 40,010 20,109

Change -2.33% -3.07%

Indices KMI-30 Allshare

This w eek 67,013 28,896

Last w eek 68,096 29,113

Change -1.59% -0.75%

Mkt Cap. PkRbn US$bn

This w eek 8,321 77.77

Last w eek 8,375 79.41

Change -0.65% -2.06%

Avg. Daily Turnover ('mn shares)

This w eek 141.27

Last w eek 129.91

Change 8.74%

Top-5 Volume Leaders

Symbol Volume (mn)

WTL : 69.33

KEL : 57.87

TRG : 52.88

JPGL : 43.09

ANL : 30.32

-15.0%

-13.0%

-11.0%

-9.0%

-7.0%

-5.0%

-3.0%

-1.0%

1.0%

3.0%

5.0%

PSM

C

PPL

NCL

NM

L

POL

ASTL

EFO

OD

S

PSO

FCCL

KAPC

O

33,000

35,000

37,000

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53,000

-50

50

150

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Dec

-16

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-17

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-17

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r-1

7

May

-17

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17

Jul-1

7

Au

g-17

Sep

-17

Oct

-17

No

v-1

7

Dec

-17

(Index)(share mn)

Volume (LHS) KSE-100 Index


AKD Securities Limited

8 December 2017

StockSmart


This Week’s Daily Reports

2

Dec 07, 2017

OGDC: Project delays impacting price performance, (AKD Daily, Dec 08, 2017)

Despite its peers rallying by~ 9.8% since May and intl. oil prices rising 23.5% during the peri-od, OGDC has lost 17.1% on account of potential delays in the upcoming projects. In this regard, phase II of KPD-TAY has completed as per our sources, while work is underway at Nashpa-Mela and Soghri's timeline has been extended. The incremental flows of ~3,500bpd of oil, ~100MMCFD gas and ~300MTD of LPG, while significant in absolute nature, will only be able to off-set the declining production from various old fields, hence contributing little towards the bottom-line. However, the company is in the process of drilling more wells tak-ing leads from the result of seismic surveys with its success ratio rising to 40/57% for FY16/17. Having said this, we believe the company should be able to grow its earnings by an avg. 19.4% during FY18-20F on account of : 1) augmented production from its working inter-est in TAL block fields and 2) higher oil prices. Trading at a forward P/E of 8.3x (vs. 3yr his-torical avg. of 9.3x), our NAV based TP of PkR190/sh offers 23.7% upside from current lev-els.

Autos: Incumbents gear-up for competition, (AKD Daily, Dec 07, 2017)

Awaiting monthly sales figures for a seasonally slow month, we look at developments on the ground concerning new variants launched, order books curtailed and activity base for new entrants. PSMCs recent launch of new vehicle offerings, the Mega Carry in the CBU pickup category and the auto gear shift Cultus AGS extend the OEMs drive to enhance quali-ty. However, we believe the impact of these variants is expected to be minor, as the premi-um price point for both hinders sales growth, in our view. For INDU, the company expects robust demand from upcoming pre-election premium SUV buying spree, where the Fortun-er and Revo variants are expected to deliver strong growth, buoyed by plans to introduce the 3.0L diesel variant of the Fortuner. As for new entrants, we present an updated snap-shot of announces investment plans, while sector-wise FDI data until October'17 shows a minor increase for net FDI under Transport Equipment category where 4MFY18 cumulative net FDI of US$15.5mn is higher by 5.4%YoY.

OMCs: Nov'17 sales suffer from FO generation halt, (AKD Daily, Dec 06, 2017)

Seasonal weakness aggravated by the abrupt closure of FO fired plants for the majority of the month weighed down Nov'17 POL product sales, amounting to 1.91mn tonnes (-22%MoM/-7%YoY). FO sales fell -55%MoM/-29%YoY, while supply chain constraints and ensuing refinery disruptions kept MOGAS/HSD volumes on a soft note (-9%/+2%MoM and +6%/-2%YoY). Total POL sales volumes for major OMCs moved -29%/-22%/-22%MoM for PSO/APL/HASCOL and -28%/-8%/+29%YoY, highlighting the tenuous situation of POL storage and transport infrastructure due to unplanned FO plant closures. Market shares for major OMCs remained sticky, with PSO/APL/HASCOL commanding 52%/8%/11% of total product market share for Nov'17 while cumulative 11MCY17 market shares are at 55%/8%/10% vs. 56%/7%/7% for 11MCY16. Highlighting PSO's attractive multiples (FY18E P/E of 4.9x) and earnings cushion from RLNG handling income (2.5% of DES price) as key triggers. At a target price of PkR413/sh the potential upside of 34% is alluring.

Pakistan Cement_Nov'17 Dispatches Review, (AKD Daily, Dec 05, 2017)

Total cement dispatches during the month rose 4.8%YoY to 3.93mn tons in Nov'17, while declining on a monthly basis (down 6.9%), as reflected in provisional data released by APCMA. Local demand growth tapered off to 9.4%YoY/-5.3%MoM against an avg. 4MFY18 dispatches growth of 25.6%, on account of construction activities losing pace as winter ap-proaches. Exports, on the other hand, remained under significant pressure with figures showing a significant 26.4%YoY /20.5%MoM decline possibly due to trade barriers imposed by Afghanistan. Cumulatively, 5MFY18 dispatches are up 13.8%YoY over the previous year to 18.50mn tons primarily driven by strong domestic consumption, (+19.8%YoY), while ex-port growth decelerated (down 18.1%YoY). Post the seasonal blip, we expect domestic de-mand to pick up pace with GoP looking for swift completion of public projects during the election year, evident in 20%YoY higher PSDP disbursement in 5MFY18. With pricing con-cerns coming to the fore alongwith fundamental pressures (rising coal prices), the cement


Dec 06, 2017

Dec 08, 2017

Dec 05, 2017

Dec 04, 2017

38,200

38,400

38,600

38,800

39,000

39,200

39,400

9:1

4

9:4

3

10:1

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0

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7

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38,750

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3

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8

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0

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7

14:0

2

14:2

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14:5

2

15:1

6


8 December 2017

StockSmart


This Week’s Daily Reports

3

sector has undergone steep correction (down 44% since May'17). While pricing risk remains as additional capacity streams online, we base our investment case on: 1) strong domestic demand growth and 2) discounted valuations. In this backdrop, we maintain our preference for well diversified, energy efficient companies like LUCK (TP: PkR898/sh), MLCF (TP: PkR108/sh), DGKC (TP: PkR194/sh) and PIOC (TP: PkR109/sh) in our Cement Universe.

Pakistan Market_Nov'17 Review & Outlook, (AKD Daily, Dec 04, 2017)

The month of Nov'17 witnessed an extension of the prevailing bearish momentum at the bourse with the index losing 1.1%MoM. Elevation in political noise - a 21 day long sit-in the federal capital culminating in the resignation of the Law Minister, alongwith anticipated foreign selling (on MSCI portfolio rebalancing) continued to weaken sentiments. To this end, foreigners adjusted portfolios to the same, cumulatively selling US$51.8mn worth of equi-ties, with bulk selling coming in towards the end of the month (US$19.8mn worth equities sold on Nov 30'17).Local investors remained risk averse where the lack of involvement was clearly reflective in lower trading volumes/value (down 23%/18%MoM) in Nov’17. Apart from Oil&Gas (+3.3%MoM mimicking oil price trend) and Automoblies (+2.4%MoM on an-ticipated model launches), performance at the mainboard remained rather unexciting. Go-ing into Dec'17, we expect the market should derive strength from: 1) positive reiteration on the macro front despite political uncertainty (successful Eurobond/Sukuk issue), and 2) bullish oil price outlook benefitting heavyweight Oil&Gas sector. In addition to, we also push for exposure in sectors like Banks (MCB, UBL, BAFL), Autos (INDU), Cements that are thematically well placed.


8 December 2017

StockSmart


4

Commodities

International Major Currencies

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Major World Indices’ Performance

Source: Bloomberg

TRJ-CRB Index

Source: Bloomberg

PkR/US$ Trend

Source: Bloomberg

Regional Valuations (2017)

Source: Bloomberg & AKD Universe

165

168

171

174

177

180

183

186

189

192

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16

Jan-1

7

Feb

-17

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Jun-1

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Jul-17

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Oct-17

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104.0

104.5

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-17

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SPOT Units 8-Dec-17 30-Nov-17 WoW CYTD

TRJ-CRB Points 184.471 189.1714 -2.48% -4.18%

Nymex (WTI) US$/bbl. 57.59 57.4 0.33% 7.20%

ICE Brent US$/bbl. 63.32 62.78 0.86% 14.28%

N. Gas Henry Hub US$/Mmbtu 2.8034 2.9417 -4.70% -23.86%

Cotton USd/Pound 83.2 83.7 -0.60% 4.79%

Gold US$/Tr.Oz 1247.18 1274.94 -2.18% 8.24%

Sliver US$/Tr.Oz 15.8145 16.436 -3.78% -0.65%

Copper US$/MT 6530 6735 -3.04% 18.23%

Platinum US$/Oz 893.03 942.65 -5.26% -1.16%

Coal US$/MT 94.75 94.75 0.00% 13.13%

SPOT 8-Dec-17 30-Nov-17 Chg +/- WoW CYTD

Dollar Index 93.984 93.047 0.937 1.01% -8.47%

USD/PkR 106.990 105.500 1.490 1.41% 2.07%

USD/JPY 113.490 112.540 0.950 0.84% -2.62%

EUR/USD 1.174 1.190 -0.016 -1.35% 11.94%

GBP/USD 1.343 1.353 -0.010 -0.73% 9.50%

AUD/USD 0.751 0.757 -0.005 -0.71% 4.06%

NZD/USD 0.684 0.683 0.001 0.12% -1.79%

CHF/USD 0.997 0.984 0.013 1.34% -2.56%

CAD/USD 1.285 1.290 -0.005 -0.39% -4.85%

USD/KRW 1,094 1,088 5.450 0.50% -9.46%

CNY/USD 6.621 6.609 0.012 0.18% -4.82%

Country Bloomberg Code 8-Dec-17 30-Nov-17 WoW CYTD

Pakistan KSE100 Index 39,080 40,010 -2.33% -18.3%

Srilanka CSEALL Index 6,375 6,412 -0.57% 2.4%

Thailand SET Index 1,707 1,697 0.54% 10.6%

Indonesia JCI Index 6,031 5,952 1.32% 13.9%

Malaysia FBMKLCI Index 1,721 1,718 0.20% 4.8%

Philippines PCOMP Index 8,305 8,254 0.61% 21.4%

Vietnam VNINDEX Index 940 950 -1.03% 41.4%

Hong Kong HSI Index 28,640 29,177 -1.84% 30.2%

Singapore FSSTI Index 3,425 3,434 -0.26% 18.9%

Brazil IBX Index 30,265 29,729 1.80% 22.1%

Russia RTSSTD Index 13,709 13,621 0.64% -7.0%

India SENSEX Index 33,250 33,149 0.30% 24.9%

S&P SPX Index 2,637 2,648 -0.40% 17.8%

DJIA INDU Index 24,211 24,272 -0.25% 22.5%

UK UKX Index 7,360 7,327 0.46% 3.0%

Germany DAX Index 13,194 13,024 1.30% 14.9%

Qatar DSM Index 7,774 7,714 0.77% -25.5%

Abu Dhabi ADSMI Index 4,277 4,283 -0.14% -5.9%

Dubai DFMGI Index 3,393 3,421 -0.80% -3.9%

Kuwait KWSEIDX Index 6,187 6,197 -0.15% 7.6%

Oman MSM30 Index 5,066 5,110 -0.85% -12.4%

Saudi Arabia SASEIDX Index 7,086 7,004 1.16% -1.7%

MSCI EM MXEF Index 1,101 1,121 -1.81% 27.6%

MSCI FM MXFM Index 623 619 0.68% 24.8%

EPS Growth PE(x)

Pakistan 18% 7.51

Indonesia 11% 15.33

Malaysia 12% 15.70

Philippines 6% 14.90

Vitenam 12% 18.09

India 28% 16.98

China 13% 12.85

% ROE Divd Yld

Pakistan 15.7% 7.10

Indonesia 15.02 2.34

Malaysia 10.29 3.54

Philippines 12.16 1.56

Vitenam 15.95 1.98

India 15.41 1.58

China 11.50 2.21

5


8 December 2017

StockSmart


Chart Bank

FIPI Flows for the week

Advance to Decline Ratio

AKD Universe vs. KSE-100 Index

LIPI Flows for the week

Earnings Yield vs. T-Bill (12M) Differential

KSE-100 vs. MSCI-EM & MSCI-FM

-20%-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

Dec

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KSE100 MSCI EM

MSCI FM

(1,063)

524

2,015

1,303

(1,744) (1,970)

(1,470)

(970)

(470)

30

530

1,030

1,530

2,030

4-Dec-17 5-Dec-17 6-Dec-17 7-Dec-17 8-Dec-17

(US$'000)

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(%)

Ind., 5.07

Co., 10.28

Bank/DFI, 4.12

NBFC, 0.30

M.Funds, 6.88 Ins, 6.84

Others, 4.53

Prop. Trading , 3.96

-

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-22%

-17%

-12%

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18%

23%

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De

c-1

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KSE-All Share Index AKD Universe

6

AKD Securities Limited StockSmart


Market PER Chart 2017

Source: AKD Research

Market P/BVS Chart 2017

Source: AKD Research

8 December 2017

Jul-

07

Feb

-08

Oct

-08

Jun-

09

Feb

-10

Oct

-10

May

-11

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12

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2.5

2.0

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1.0

(x)

7



AKD Universe Active Coverage Cluster’s Valuations

8 December 2017

Source: AKD Research UR Under Review

Stock Symbol Price TP Stance EPS(PkR) PE(x) PB(x) DY(%)

(PkR) (PkR) 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F 17 18F 19F

Automobile and Parts

Indus Motors INDU 1,699.20 2,069.97 Buy 165.41 159.58 185.44 10.27 10.65 9.16 4.28 3.81 3.26 6.77 6.47 6.47

Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 501.55 800.66 Buy 44.98 57.33 58.31 11.15 8.75 8.60 1.40 1.23 1.11 1.79 2.19 2.39

Cements

DG Khan Cement DGKC 131.77 194.00 Buy 18.20 16.40 17.85 7.24 8.04 7.38 0.77 0.73 0.69 5.69 6.07 5.31

Lucky Cement LUCK 493.18 898.00 Buy 42.34 34.15 37.79 11.65 14.44 13.05 2.00 1.91 1.72 2.43 2.03 2.43

Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF 69.65 107.00 Buy 7.92 6.98 7.46 8.79 9.97 9.33 1.77 1.34 1.11 4.71 8.62 8.62

Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL 24.44 39.00 Buy 1.89 2.59 3.22 12.90 9.44 7.59 1.71 1.63 1.53 3.68 8.18 10.23

Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 57.97 109.00 Buy 12.84 9.04 10.54 4.51 6.42 5.50 1.08 1.01 0.93 9.49 8.63 10.35

Cherat Cement Co Limited CHCC 92.04 140.00 Buy 11.08 10.71 12.79 8.31 8.59 7.20 1.55 1.43 1.27 2.91 4.35 5.43

Gharibwal Cement Ltd GWLC 23.31 58.00 Buy 5.71 4.07 4.49 4.09 5.73 5.20 0.82 0.78 0.75 12.87 13.94 11.80

Engineering

Amreli Steels Ltd. ASTL 88.31 128.00 Buy 3.62 5.56 14.70 24.42 15.88 6.01 2.35 2.04 1.58 2.26 2.26 6.79

Fertilizers

Engro Corporation ENGRO 260.19 355.00 Buy 19.18 20.16 26.27 13.56 12.91 9.91 1.66 1.65 1.60 8.84 7.69 8.46

Engro Fertilizers Limited EFERT 62.49 72.82 Accumulate 7.20 7.30 7.40 8.70 8.60 8.40 1.90 1.80 1.80 8.65 9.29 10.06

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 34.34 62.60 Buy 2.27 1.70 2.18 15.14 20.19 15.74 2.38 2.30 2.18 5.77 4.33 5.55

Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 76.56 96.86 Buy 6.97 7.66 8.34 10.98 10.00 9.18 3.35 3.24 3.13 8.19 9.00 9.80

Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 28.83 45.11 Buy 5.06 5.44 6.00 5.70 5.30 4.81 1.11 1.03 0.95 11.41 13.20 14.57

Food Producers

Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 75.83 84.20 Accumulate 0.75 1.19 1.22 101.36 63.51 62.00 3.14 2.97 2.78 - - -

Oil & Gas

Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 155.60 190.00 Buy 14.83 18.46 18.51 10.49 8.43 8.41 1.29 1.16 1.06 3.86 3.53 3.53

Pak Oilfields POL 605.00 445.00 Sell 40.92 61.32 69.91 14.79 9.87 8.65 4.54 4.14 3.77 6.61 8.60 9.83

Pakistan Petroleum PPL 196.46 239.00 Buy 18.10 21.40 25.93 10.86 9.18 7.58 1.79 1.59 1.42 4.58 4.58 5.34

Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 253.46 325.95 Buy 13.02 18.43 23.50 19.47 13.76 10.79 4.94 4.25 3.65 3.35 4.73 6.51

Attock Petroleum APL 544.86 745.14 Buy 65.27 75.54 91.87 8.35 7.21 5.93 2.93 2.79 2.63 7.80 12.07 14.68

Pakistan State Oil PSO 287.05 413.28 Buy 55.90 64.33 78.14 5.13 4.46 3.67 0.91 0.82 0.72 7.26 9.41 10.45

Power

Hub Power Co. HUBC 94.07 142.70 Buy 11.20 12.42 12.37 8.40 7.57 7.60 3.55 3.48 3.60 7.97 11.70 11.43

K-Electric Co. KEL 6.18 UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR

Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 51.01 85.00 Buy 10.84 11.40 11.39 4.71 4.47 4.48 1.40 1.34 1.28 17.74 19.11 19.11

Fixed Line Telecommunication

Pakistan Telecommunication PTC 12.31 UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR UR

Personal Goods

Nishat Mills NML 142.48 163.10 Buy 12.12 15.48 18.09 11.75 9.20 7.88 0.56 0.54 0.52 3.51 4.91 5.79

Nishat Chunian Ltd. NCL 46.15 69.26 Buy 6.75 9.55 10.66 6.84 4.83 4.33 0.92 0.81 0.72 5.96 8.13 9.21

Banks

Allied Bank Limited ABL 78.98 101.44 Buy 11.95 13.01 14.62 6.61 6.07 5.40 0.84 0.79 0.75 9.50 10.13 11.40

Bank AlFalah BAFL 38.65 48.43 Buy 5.33 5.44 5.98 7.25 7.10 6.47 0.94 0.82 0.73 - 2.57 3.85

Habib Bank Limited HBL 155.92 253.08 Buy 22.13 24.11 26.29 7.05 6.47 5.93 1.08 1.00 0.92 8.98 8.98 8.98

MCB Bank Limited MCB 199.23 232.52 Accumulate 19.91 23.56 25.05 10.01 8.46 7.95 1.48 1.40 1.35 8.03 9.03 9.54

National Bank of Pakistan NBP 44.03 73.67 Buy 8.59 10.12 12.74 5.12 4.35 3.46 0.49 0.47 0.44 15.90 17.03 19.31

United Bank Ltd UBL 168.18 238.61 Buy 20.52 22.40 25.00 8.20 7.51 6.73 1.19 1.13 1.06 7.73 7.73 7.73

8


8 December 2017

StockSmart


AKD Universe Coverage Cluster’s Performance


Stoc ks Symbol Pric e 1 Ye a r 1 Ye a r

8 - De c - 17 1M 3 M 6 M 12 M CYTD High Low

KSE- 10 0 Inde x 3 9 ,0 8 0 .0 0 - 5 .3 - 5 .6 - 2 1.8 - 12 .7 - 18 .3 52,876.5 38,784.7

Automobile a nd Pa rts

Indus Motors INDU 1699.20 - 4.4 - 1.5 - 14.6 7.8 5.2 2044.30 1574.18

Pak Suzuki Motors PSMC 501.55 - 10.7 10.2 - 42.9 - 4.4 - 18.2 903.91 436.74

Ce me nts

DG Khan Cement DGKC 131.77 - 7.7 - 15.4 - 43.0 - 36.8 - 40.6 245.37 130.87

Lucky Cement LUCK 493.18 - 7.3 - 17.3 - 42.8 - 39.5 - 43.1 994.65 484.20

Maple Leaf Cement Factory MLCF 69.65 - 0.5 - 21.0 - 39.5 - 41.5 - 45.4 137.64 66.31

Fauji Cement Company Ltd. FCCL 24.44 - 15.1 - 29.8 - 46.0 - 41.5 - 45.8 48.19 24.44

Pioneer Cement Limited PIOC 57.97 - 6.6 - 38.8 - 60.6 - 56.1 - 59.2 160.02 57.97

Cherat Cement Limited CHCC 92.04 - 9.7 - 31.6 - 49.7 - 44.0 - 47.1 212.00 90.22

Gharibwal Cement Limited GWLC 23.31 0.5 - 36.2 - 57.0 - 52.9 - 53.3 67.48 22.95

Engine e ring

Amreli Steel Ltd ASTL 88.31 - 3.7 - 12.5 - 33.6 28.0 32.6 137.97 65.52

Fe rtilize rs

Dawood Hercules DAWH 112.55 - 7.2 - 2.7 - 21.5 - 22.0 - 22.0 161.23 108.27

Engro Fertilizers Ltd. EFERT 62.49 - 6.9 13.1 8.4 15.9 - 8.1 73.28 51.90

Engro Chemical ENGRO 260.19 - 9.0 - 10.5 - 28.0 - 18.1 - 17.7 399.16 253.53

Fatima Fertilizer FATIMA 28.83 - 7.6 0.5 - 12.0 - 17.1 - 21.8 41.29 27.26

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim Ltd. FFBL 34.34 2.2 2.4 - 26.0 - 34.9 - 32.9 58.41 32.17

Fauji Fertilizer Company FFC 76.56 - 7.7 6.9 - 18.1 - 27.4 - 26.6 118.96 70.07

Food Produc e rs

Engro Foods Limited EFOODS 75.83 - 13.5 - 16.4 - 44.5 - 52.8 - 60.5 207.82 75.83

Oil & Ga s

Oil & Gas Development Co. OGDC 155.60 - 2.2 5.2 - 3.7 1.7 - 5.9 188.71 133.69

Pak Oilfields POL 605.00 - 5.5 26.2 18.6 30.6 13.2 640.28 429.75

Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. PPL 196.46 - 0.2 13.7 14.3 20.1 4.4 201.94 143.73

Pakistan State Oil PSO 287.05 - 18.8 - 33.9 - 35.5 - 29.1 - 33.9 486.05 287.05

Attock Petroleum Ltd. APL 544.86 - 9.5 - 14.6 - 21.0 - 19.4 - 20.4 749.39 544.86

Hascol Petroleum HASCOL 253.46 - 9.9 - 13.8 - 32.8 - 23.8 - 24.9 389.41 251.80

Powe r

Hub Power Co. HUBC 94.07 - 11.2 - 17.8 - 24.7 - 17.1 - 23.8 145.43 91.96

K- Electric Limited KEL 6.18 11.8 0.3 - 17.4 - 33.8 - 34.0 10.67 5.34

Kot Addu Power Company KAPCO 51.01 - 23.3 - 30.5 - 31.9 - 32.8 - 35.3 85.02 51.01

Fixe d Line Te le c ommunic a tion

Pakistan Telecommunication PTC 12.31 - 5.3 - 10.8 - 21.7 - 30.1 - 28.3 19.45 12.31

Pe rsona l Goods

Nisaht (Chunian) Ltd. NCL 46.15 - 9.1 - 8.8 - 19.8 - 19.2 - 26.1 72.67 44.03

Nishat Mills NML 142.48 - 1.0 3.3 - 14.4 - 2.1 - 6.4 185.63 130.03

Ba nks

Allied Bank Limited ABL 78.98 - 2.0 - 7.1 - 17.0 - 24.8 - 33.7 122.00 77.50

Bank AlFalah BAFL 38.65 - 3.4 - 6.8 - 9.8 11.9 1.8 47.24 34.32

Habib Bank Limited HBL 155.92 - 6.0 - 2.9 - 40.4 - 33.8 - 42.9 308.57 152.41

MCB Bank Limited MCB 199.23 - 5.9 1.7 - 8.6 - 13.0 - 16.2 262.10 190.43

National Bank of Pakistan NBP 44.03 - 1.7 - 18.4 - 34.5 - 39.5 - 41.2 82.66 43.03

United Bank Ltd UBL 168.18 - 6.8 - 12.3 - 29.1 - 25.2 - 29.6 275.38 163.40

Absolute Pe rforma nc e (%)

9


8 December 2017

StockSmart


Economic Snapshot

Source: SBP, PBS & AKD Research

End Month Data Units Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17

T-bill

3M % 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 5.85 n.a

6M % 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 n.a

12M % 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.90 5.91 n.a

PIB 10Y % 8.21 8.17 8.24 8.26 8.21 8.18 8.2 8.23 8.27 n.a

KIBOR 6M % 5.87 5.87 5.88 5.91 5.90 5.90 5.89 5.90 5.91 5.91

Discount rate % 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25 6.25

Policy rate % 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75

Inflation

Headline inflation % 3.66 4.22 4.94 4.78 5.00 3.9 2.9 3.4 3.9 3.8

Core inflation % 5.40 5.30 5.30 5.50 5.50 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.3

Food inflation % 2.60 3.70 5.00 4.40 4.90 2.4 (0.10) 1.3 2.4 2.2

External Indicators

Export (PBS) US$ (mn) 1,780 1,638 1,801 1,805 1,627 1,912 1,631 1,866 1,675 1,888

Import (PBS) US$ (mn) 4,724 4,419 5,009 4,998 5,092 4,534 4,835 4,952 4,473 4,929

Trade Deficit (PBS) US$ (mn) (2,944) (2,781) (3,208) (3,193) (3,465) (2,622) (3,204) (3,086) (2,798) -3,041

Export (SBP) 1,783 1,769 2,061 1,766 1,954 1,865 1,828 2,104 2,194 2,380

Import (SBP) 4,196 4,017 4,305 4,108 4,633 5,054 4,720 4,262 4,712 5,258

Trade Deficit (SBP) (2,413) (2,248) (2,244) (2,342) (2,679) (3,189) (2,892) (2,158) (2,518) (2,878)

Home Remittances US$ (mn) 1,488 1,417 1,694 1,539 1,867 1,840 1,542 1,955

1,294 1,654

Current Account US$ (mn) (1,202) (822) (562) (1,337) (1,651) (1,431) (2,051) (550) (1,097) (1,315)

Banking Sector

Deposits PkR (bn) 10,704 10,730 11,170 11,214 10,993 11,981 11,702 11,651 11,980 11,777

Advances PkR (bn) 5,468 5,477 5,697 5,777 5,936 6,176 6,028 6,035 6,137 6,151

Investments PkR (bn) 7,374 7,467 7,670 7,794 7,849 8,166 7,989 8,145 8,338 8,342

W. A. lending rate % 8.01 7.99 7.89 7.85 7.87 7.86 7.88 7.91 7.83 7.82

W. A. deposit rate % 3.05 3.02 2.99 2.98 2.89 2.84 2.91 2.93 2.93 2.91

Spread rate % 4.96 4.97 4.90 4.87 4.98 5.02 4.97 4.98 4.90 4.90

Public Finance

Tax collection PkR (mn) 223,856 225,486 346,999 249,958 330,957 511,449 n.a n.a n.a n.a

Direct taxes PkR (mn) 81,741 80,019 147,242 78,407 117,084 247,210 n.a n.a n.a n.a

Indirect Taxes PkR (mn) 142,115 145,467 199,757 171,551 213,873 264,239 n.a n.a n.a n.a

Currency

Fx Reserves US$ (mn) 22,242 22,072 21,572 21,019 21,190 21,402 20,223 20,401 19,775 19,583.70

USDPkR - Interbank PkR/USD 104.84 104.84 104.82 104.79 104.84 104.86 105.48 105.38 105.40 105.41

10



DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS

This publication/communication or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of AKD Securities Limited. AKD Securities Limited has produced this report for private circulation to professional and institutional clients only. The information, opinions and estimates herein are not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction where doing so would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKD Securities Limited to any additional registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. The information and statistical data herein have been obtained from sources we believe to be reliable and complied by our research department in good faith. Such information has not been independently verified and we make no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. Any opinions or estimates herein reflect the judgment of AKD Securities Limited at the date of this publication/ communication and are subject to change at any time without notice.

This report is not a solicitation or any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. It is for information purposes only and is not intended to provide professional, investment or any other type of advice or recommendation and does not take into account the particular invest-ment objectives, financial situation or needs of individual recipients. Before acting on any information in this publication/communication, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice. Neither AKD Securities Limited nor any of its affiliates or any other person connected with the company accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report or the information contained therein.

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Analyst Certification We, the AKD Research Team, hereby individually & jointly certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about the subject securities and issuers. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is,or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. We further certify that we do not have any beneficial holding of the specific securities that we have recommendations on in this report.

AKD Research Team

Analyst Tel no. E-mail Coverage

Umer Pervez +92 111 253 111 (693) [email protected] Executive Director Research & Business Development

Zoya Ahmed +92 111 253 111 (603) [email protected] Banks, Telecoms & Consumers

Ali Asghar Poonawala +92 111 253 111 (646) [email protected] OMCs & Automobiles

Waqas Imdad Ali +92 111 253 111 (634) [email protected] Cements & Fertilizer

M.Daniyal Kanani +92 111 253 111 (602) [email protected] Oil & Gas & Power

Umer Farooq +92 111 253 111 (637) [email protected] Textiles & Steel

Bilal Ahsan Elahi +92 111 253 111 (685) [email protected] Automobiles

Qasim Anwar +92 111 253 111 (680) [email protected] Technical Analysis

Nasir Khan +92 111 253 111 (639) [email protected] Research Production

8 December 2017

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